Decisions, decisions.....

Banker or Player (or, for that matter, "no-bet")? Read: Bet Selection
Bet one unit or two? Read: Money-Management
End the session or continue on? Read: Win Goal/Stop Loss

Surely, the life of a Baccarat player is literally filled with these (as well as other) typical decisions. Decisions that we face at virtually every single turn of a card.

And, my friends, make no mistake of it, those decsions, especially when considered collectively over one's long term Baccarat play, will serve as the product of your success (or, unfortunately, failure). So, in essence, we have the following:

Good Decisions - Bad Decisions = Long-term Profit

Your long term profit will be the sum of your good decisions minus your bad decisions. Period. End of story. Ain't no getting around it.

Ergo, it becomes our responsibility to make the absolute very best decisions on our own behalf.....always.

Easier said than done, right? I mean, sure, we all strive to do the very best for ourselves, but.....how can we assure it, or, at the very least, how can we really put ourselves in the very best possible position to make better decisions?

Please pardon my indulgence as I offer the following as an answer:

The first thing that I would seek to adjust is my approach to the game. My mind-set. When you sit down to a session of play, you mustn't think of it in such terms as only either a "winning" or "losing" session. Why? Because then the absolute "need to win" can (and will) ultimately consume you, and when that becomes the only definition of your play, it will ultimately lead you into to those "bad decisions". (Hence, the birth of those devilish long, drawn-out, steep negative progressions, which are all nothing but recipes for disaster.) Before you know it, those "bad decisions" are leading to even worse, and you're now in over your head.

Alternatively, take a step back. Think of making your "better decision". Think in terms of always "starting anew", where each hand is considered as a new session. Tell yourself, as the bets go back and forth and regardless the outcomes, that you are standing at "even". Yes, even in the midst of that "losing jag", you're considered at "even" at each new decision, and only what you do "right now", at this next decision, matters. Not what transpired a dozen hands ago, rather, only your next decision really matters now. In that manner, you will be playing your very best game all of the time, without the undue pressure of having to win at every turn (read: every session).

Mind-set adjustments -- very, very crucial to any chance at long term success (read: profits), because that is the very basis of the....
.....Good Decisions - Bad Decisions = Long-term Profit formula.

As always, I wish you all the very best of it.

Regarding those bet selection, money-management and win goal/stop loss decisions a bit more specifically:

1) Bet Selection, the the very best decision is:

One word comes to mind immediately: consistency. Your bet selections should be well-planned in advance and should be selections that you are most comfortable playing for. Guessing has no place at this game. Have a plan for the "choppiness" as well as for the "streakiness". No one singular bet selection will ever work well for you over the long term. It must be dynamic in nature and relatively subjective. In other words, bet for what you are witnessing. Utilize your bet selection method that best fits the propensities of this shoe, right now.

2) Money-Management, the very best decision is:

One word comes to mind immediately: conservatism. This is not a race, but, if it were, let's consider it a marathon. Losing your last bet should never, ever be used as an excuse to raise the size of your next one. Relax, and, in that manner, you'll be allowing the game....nay, YOUR game,....to "come to you", rather than find yourself "chasing" their game. And don't leave home without your "no-bet" option. Patience pays. Lastly, as to the raising of bet sizes, I'd much prefer them on a session-to-session basis (with measured variance), or, at the very least, a shoe-to-shoe basis.

3.) Win Goal/Stop Loss, the very best decision is:

One word comes to mind immediately: Long-term. Think in the long-term. This particular shoe and this particular session means rather little when considered among the thousands of shoes and/or sessions that you'll play over the long term. Then, winning or losing "right now" isn't nearly as paramount as remaining consistent in your play and in your approach. Learn to accept losses, as short as you can get away with. Learn to revel in any win, regardless the size, for they will all add up rather nicely over the long term.

Decisions, decisions.....again, I wish you all the correct decisions.

Hello gr8player,

It's such a pleasure to read your insightful posts. I truly admire your love and dedication to the wonderful game of baccarat. I also think it's incredibly generous of you to share your wealth of knowledge about baccarat with us. We are your humble students. :)

Oh...but before I leave, gr8player, will you be so kind as to answer one teeny tiny little question? I promise it will not be a long one! I would like to respectfully ask:

Have you accepted the challenge yet?

I look forward to hearing from you, gr8player. And I wish you the very best of it, my friend.

Quote: Beethoven9th

Have you accepted the challenge yet?

Was waiting on that... :-)

Quote: chickenman

Was waiting on that... :-)

Let us hope that gr8player, my idol, does not ignore me this time!

No hope--your appeal has been ignored 1,783 consecutive times... :-0

Bet Selection: it remind me of a Baccarat forum called Bet Selection:

Quote: Beethoven9th

Hello gr8player,

It's such a pleasure to read your insightful posts. I truly admire your love and dedication to the wonderful game of baccarat. I also think it's incredibly generous of you to share your wealth of knowledge about baccarat with us. We are your humble students. :)

I look forward to hearing from you, gr8player. And I wish you the very best of it, my friend.

Sarcasm as its finest. Good job, my friend. May I play, too?:

The five responses to my opening posts in this thread are absolutely amazing and chock-filled with poignant information regarding this game.

Phew.....that was fun. Sarcasm is fun, isn't it?

But if it were fun I were after, there's plenty of outlets available to us all.

I was seeking some intelligent conversation about this game, but methinks I've come to the wrong place for that.

Carry on.....

GR8 could write 10 paragraphs on how to tie your
shoes and at the end you'd know nothing about
shoe tying. His specialty is using a lot of words to
say nothing, he's a master at it.

Read: WTF is gr8 saying?

Quote: treetopbuddy

Read: WTF is gr8 saying?

You're catching on. He's not saying anything, he did
this for years on another forum. He has nothing to
say, and he does it so well you think there's something
there when its all just empty space.

gr8 likes the word "poignant".

And he loves to "wish it all for you, my friend".

My Goodness.

Unfortunately for contributing members such as myself, reading comprehension is not a prerequisite for membership to this forum.

I can tell you, unequivocally, that I am, in fact, saying "plenty" in my opening posts of this thread; alas, it becomes each person's own responsibility to glean what they may from them.

But to dismiss them, or, even worse, the contributing member, as trite and trivial is just so wrong on so many levels......
.........shame on this forum.

And I wish no further part of it.

Quote: gr8player

And I wish no further part of it.

Promise? I don't believe you, it takes an atom bomb
for you to stop posting useless nonsense. You need
help, dude.

deleted

Quote: EvenBob

Promise? I don't believe you, it takes an atom bomb
for you to stop posting useless nonsense. You need
help, dude.

Pot. Kettle. Black!

Quote: DeMango

Pot. Kettle. Black!

You took the words right out of my mouth--or off of my fingers as it were.

Quote: DeMango

Pot. Kettle. Black!

OMG. I blocked this thread to avoid gr8player's senseless drivel. Then I thought "well, but the replies might be OK" and unblocked and read the thread this morning. Then I saw this. Post of the year, by far. Well played, sir:-)

Quote: rdw4potus

I blocked this thread to avoid gr8player's senseless drivel.

Geez, my friend, I think I'd have preferred that you left it in "block" mode. My "senseless drivel", rdw4potus?

The reception to my rather proven Baccarat theories and plays is absolutely mind-boggling to me. And, on a more personal level, the total lack of respect shown towards me is, IMHO, inexcusable, given the total respect I've given every member of this forum.

What is it with some of you members? Are you that much against the very idea of anyone that might be able to play this game intelligently that it all appears as nothing more than, as rdw4potus so succinctly put it, "senseless drivel".

To those members, I beg your pardon, collectively; for I believe that you're much too dismissively short-changing a player such as myself, and that's simply not fair game.

I play a fine Baccarat game, both bet selection- and money management-wise.

I've learned to control that which I'm able to control, and I've learned how make the very best out of my "player's advantages".

When, where, why, and how does that all get relegated to "senseless drivel" levels?

What am I getting that some of you are so badly missing?

Can anyone out there, ever, take a more subjective look/approach to this game, or is that daunted house edge blocking everyone's view?

Each and every one of those rather limited and/or blinded members should never, ever set foot inside a casino, IMHO, for they are beaten even before they get their money out of their pockets....they're beaten in their minds, either consciously or subconciously, or both, and thereby haven't a chance at any long term success.

Oh, and make no mistake of it, my friends, THEY KNOW THAT TO BE TRUE, and, hence, the absolute abhorence and distaste for any one or any thing to try to tell them that any other outcome at this game is even a remote possibility. They are doomed to failure, ipso facto, we are ALL doomed to failure.

No, my friends, given that attitude, I'd never set foot inside a casino ever again.

But, alternatively, I do choose to play. And, if I'm going to choose to play, I'm determined to be the absolute "toughest out" the casino can imagine.

That's how I roll.....regardless of the "degenerated responses" it gets me in this so-called esteemed forum. While I may not be able to do much about how anyone feels or perceives of my Bac game or, for that matter, me personally; I sure can (and do) put myself in the very best possible position to succeed at the table by making the very best possible decisions ALL THE TIME. Every bet, every shoe, every session.....all measured and calculated plays. Every decision.

And, as always, I wish you all the very best of it.

I enjoy your posts and am open to different thinking on things gr8 so please continue. And, don't confuse the friendly banter between 9th and me for disrespect, just having a little fun at your expense--or maybe his, who knows...? :-)

deleted

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Quote: gr8player

The reception to my rather proven Baccarat theories and plays is absolutely mind-boggling to me.

You haven't proven anything.

Yes he has. He's proven how to avoid challenges. ;)

deleted

Thanks, chickenman, for your positive response. Much appreciated, especially when someone takes the time out of their busy schedule to post about their Bac theories and/or plays only to be, for all intents and purposes, "shown the door".......very disheartening.

Look, no one is talking "blasphemy" around here, that this game and it's built-in edge is easily surmountable. Not me, nor anyone. We all repect the game.

But must that preclude myself (or anyone) from speaking of approaches and/or plays that might serve a player rather well over the long term?

I think not.

Hmmm....I AM allowed to "think", aren't I? Both here and at the Bac tables, right? Don't be afraid to do so, my friends. Better to feel emboldened.

Success begets success.

Win one unit. One. It's more than you started with, right? Who won that battle, you or the casino? No one asked: "By how much?" I simply asked: "Who won?".

Get in the habit of doing that as often as you can. Accept any win. You can do so, just as long as you're able to limit losses; trim them as best you can.

Then add all your sessions together (I happen to keep a journal, and have for years....bet selections used, strike rates, drawdowns, win/loss streaks, and, of course, all totals). In this manner, you're not putting undue weight on any singular session, rather, you're looking at your play and results collectively.

I wish you all the very best of it.

Told you he wasn't done. GR8 is that character in the Catch 22
book that Yossarian is always trying to strangle because he
talks endlessly about nothing.

Stop it, EvenBob/Spike, you're embarrassing yourself with your futile attempts at discrediting me.

Ibeatyouraces, what is it, exactly, that you'd like "proof" of? My walking to the cashier's cage at Mohegan yesterday and cashing out with a profit (albeit a relatively minor one, but the session didn't begin as well as I'd have liked, so I was in "accept any win" mode)?

You've read enough of my posts to make your own determination....what do you think? While I might not be able to prove as much as you'd like, can't you trust your instincts enough to form an educated opinion? I should hope so. Heck, much of my Bac play is predicated upon my "educated opinion" (read: experience). Try using yours. Or might you, as so many others 'round here, simply find it just so much easier to write off any possibility for success to that daunted house edge?

Yeah, that's the ticket....all of my play, all of my theory, all of my experience, and all of my perceived edges ain't never gonna match their 1%. Yeah, I get it. I get it all the time 'round here.

And, my friend, there's absolutely nothing wrong with your strict belief in that seemingly "insurmountable" edge. It's a fine belief, for it's "all fact, no fiction". I get it.

But I play my game. I like my game. I prefer my game. And I prefer my chances of success, even over the casino's.

Aren't I just as entitled to my belief as you are yours?

deleted

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Going to the cage with chips again does not prove you have an advantage as you say you do. Positive variance and positive EV are two totally different things. And that's why you continue to dodge any challenge. You KNOW YOU WILL LOSE! Case closed.

You are circling the edge of his whirlpool.

Quote: gr8player

what is it, exactly, that you'd like "proof" of?

The challenge would be proof.

But keep running away instead. ;)

deleted

BTW, why do guys like gr8player, Ahigh, etc. keep saying that they're going to leave this forum, yet they keep coming back?

I can't speak for Ahigh, Beethoven9th, but, as for me, my main reason for posting here in this most esteemed forum is so that an esteemed member such as yourself can incessantly rave on all about a so-called "challenge" that never even existed but that I apparently keep avoiding.

Your intelligence and class exudes with each one of your rants and raves regarding a non-existent "challenge".

What would you have me do, play a shoe out right here? Tell me, that would prove exactly what? There could be but two outcomes (win or lose the shoe), either of which are rendered meaningless when weighted over the long term.

But don't let that fact deter your coveted little rant, Beethoven9th....you keep right on with your incessant nonsense....after all, you're doing a good job of embarrassing someone. Just ask yourself this: Exactly who is it that might be most embarrassed from your utter nonsense?

Quote: gr8player

I can't speak for Ahigh, Beethoven9th, but, as for me, my main reason for posting here in this most esteemed forum is so that...

That's not what I asked. I asked, why do you say that you're not going to post here anymore when you have no intention of following through?

Quote: gr8player

Just ask yourself this: Exactly who is it that might be most embarrassed from your utter nonsense?

You. hehehehe... ;)

I made a post when I was rather frustrated that implied my departure, but I was not explicit about it. There is a difference, my friend. And, frankly, my decision as to whether or not to post in this forum, as a member in good standing, remains exactly that....mine.

How would you be served if I were to discontinue posting here? What stake have you in that?

I, on the other hand, don't mind your posting, especially that very last one, because your favorite word, you know, that "c-word", was nowhere to be found. Good job, my friend. Keep it up.

Quote: gr8player

I can't speak for Ahigh, Beethoven9th, but, as for me, my main reason for posting here in this most esteemed forum is so that an esteemed member such as yourself can incessantly rave on all about a so-called "challenge" that never even existed but that I apparently keep avoiding.

Make no mistake: it existed. I made it, and I made it quite clearly. But we both all know you can't win, so you have to pretend that there is no challenge. Losing would mean that even more people know that your ideas are nonsense.

Quote: rdw4potus

Make no mistake: it existed. I made it, and I made it quite clearly. But we both all know you can't win, so you have to pretend that there is no challenge.

Really, rdw4potus, so there exists, in your mind at least, a challenge.....
......hmmm, and just how would a man of your intelligence suggest we proceed with same? What sort of challenge, and towards what end? To prove, or disprove, what exactly?

Time to put this obvious nonsense to bed.

I'm all ears, rdw4potus......

Quote: gr8player

Quote: rdw4potus

Make no mistake: it existed. I made it, and I made it quite clearly. But we both all know you can't win, so you have to pretend that there is no challenge.

Really, rdw4potus, so there exists, in your mind at least, a challenge.....
......hmmm, and just how would a man of your intelligence suggest we proceed with same? What sort of challenge, and towards what end? To prove, or disprove, what exactly?

Time to put this obvious nonsense to bed.

I'm all ears, rdw4potus......

Every time that Beethoven9th mentions the challenge, he links to the post where I made the challenge. every. single. time. And you claim not to know anything about it. I guess it's easy to see how someone who could miss that could also think that baccarat was beatable via bet manipulation.

Quote: rdw4potus

Every time that Beethoven9th mentions the challenge, he links to the post where I made the challenge. every. single. time. And you claim not to know anything about it. .

You can't win this argument, he did this for YEARS
on another forum. His sage meaningless advice
and condescending attitude. The "just have the right
attitude and frame of mind and you can be a winner
just like me" crap. I knew he'd be back, he loves it
when people gang up on him. I'm telling you, read
Catch 22. He's the character Yossarian wants to kill
because he talks and talks and never says anything.

Quote: gr8player

Your intelligence and class exudes with each one of your rants and raves regarding a non-existent "challenge".

The challenge exists. It's up to you whether you accept it, but the challenge certainly exists. You can't deny it exists. You can choose not to take it.

As for everything else. You've said nothing material. Just hinted you might start telling us something after setting out some vague hand wavy attitudes. Seen it before. The good BS-ers though eventually give something more concrete. They work as they get a crowd psyched up believing first. You've failed to do that.

In short, your 'experience' and 'perceived edges' don't matter. The 1% house edge from a random string of results matter. Either

a) you can prove that a baccarat deck is not a series of (almost) independent events
b) you can somehow 'read' random numbers to get a edge on predicting (bet selection) the next event (including taking no decision on the next event).

Nothing you write shows that. 'Locking up a profit' is all BS. Always will be. If you don't have an edge, and can't work out what it is within a reasonable level of magnitude, you don't have an edge, you have dreams and fancies.

You're mistaken, rdw4potus. I do not claim a lack of recognition, I simply realize the utter tripe of it all.

Oh, and by the way, I do happen to believe that Baccarat can be bested via bet manipulation. Both bet selection- and money management-wise.

Think about it for a minute, my friend....what else might I believe in? That I can't win? That the house edge has me doomed? And, yet, I should still put my money onto the felt....why, because I like the smell of the felt? Is that why you perceive me to be there? After all, rdw4potus, it can't be to win, right?

Or maybe I can win with manipulation....of my bet placements and their sizes, and my playing shoes/sessions (read: win/loss goals), and my variances. I do the very best that I can for myself considering what I'm up against. Rather like this place.....

It's baccarat. The house edge is 1%. A betting system will magnify the house edge because the average bet will be larger.

If you have a method for predicting cards, let's have it, because it is the ONLY way to beat this game. The odds of the next hand being player, or banker, or tie, is unpredictable UNLESS you know what cards are coming. Therefore, a guess will suffice if you don't know what cards are coming.

Ooops, since my last post there were a couple of others:

EvenBob, no sense in our "locking horns" yet again. Everyone here knows the truth of you, I needn't say a thing.....

As to "thecesspit" commentary:

No, I do not believe that the shoe results are random. And, thereby, exploitable. Always? Nope. Nearly always? Still, nope. But enough. I've seen it and I've lived it, and, even more pointedly, I've played it.

You want random, go play roulette.

You want some "exploitable shoe traits" (read: trends), you might want to give Baccarat a look.

Quote: gr8player

How would you be served if I were to discontinue posting here? What stake have you in that?

Oh, I don't want you to leave. With Ahigh unable to post, you're the most entertainment member here (in a court jester-ish type of way). :)

Anyway, all I asked was why you said you'd leave and didn't follow through? I guess your claims about leaving are BS, just like your claims about bac.

Quote: gr8player

Think about it for a minute, my friend....what else might I believe in? That I can't win? That the house edge has me doomed? And, yet, I should still put my money onto the felt....why, because I like the smell of the felt? Is that why you perceive me to be there?

No, you're there because you're like the millions of other people in the world who can't quit gambling.

Quote: Beethoven9th

No, you're there because you're like the millions of other people in the world who can't quit gambling.

The only way he'll go away is if you stop feeding him.
He posts for the attention, isn't that obvious? Ignore
him and he'll find another forum to bother.

Okay, tell us how the shoe results are not random. Tell us how a count is exploitable in baccarat.

See the Wizard's Bacarrat Appendix 2 which addresses whether bacarrat is countable. His analysis: it's not.

Most of us are in the camp that roulette and craps are not exploitable either.

Quote: EvenBob

The only way he'll go away is if you stop feeding him.
He posts for the attention, isn't that obvious? Ignore
him and he'll find another forum to bother.

Nah, he's too entertaining. In an Ahigh-like kind of way...lol

Quote: Beethoven9th

Nah, he's too entertaining. In an Ahigh-like kind of way...lol

At least Ahigh has standards, you can only push him
so far. GR8 will come back for more abuse no matter
how much you heap on him, he lives for it.

Oh, my goodness. It's nearing the time to put Batman and Robin (EvenBob/Spike and Beethoven9th) on iggy mode.....
What absolutely wonderful poster-boys these two make for this forum.....sheesh.....

Boymimbo, I do not utilize any counting of card values in my play.

I do, however, utilize "Law of Series" statistics and variance measurements.

With all due respect, boymimbo, I dont think you could play my Bac game. Not without my experience and variance knowledge.

But, that said, if you knew how, in the long run, this all breaks down rather simply....
.....in my attempt to put more money into the betting circle when I'm winning (read: positive variance) than I do when I'm losing (read: negative variance).

Rocket scientry? Far from it, my friends. But let me tell you: experience combined with some good knowledge can take you a long, long ways in this game.

And, as always, I wish it for all of you.

Quote: gr8player

Oh, my goodness. It's nearing the time to put Batman and Robin (EvenBob/Spike and Beethoven9th) on iggy mode.....

You might as well. You already put the challenge on your Ignore list a long time ago.