Why Baccarat?
June 12th, 2013 at 5:05:35 PM
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I've been surfing through the forums and a large amount of discussion has been around Baccarat. Personally I've always been a fan of blackjack and recently craps while sticking to basic strategy and plays with the smallest -EV respectively.
Now I know in BJ you can gain a slight edge through card counting but is there any such mechanism that can you an edge in Baccarat?
Is there another layer of complexity in Baccarat that I am not seing, or is it basically a coin flip for all intensive purposes?
I look forward to hearing some responses from some of the more experienced Baccarat players.
Now I know in BJ you can gain a slight edge through card counting but is there any such mechanism that can you an edge in Baccarat?
Is there another layer of complexity in Baccarat that I am not seing, or is it basically a coin flip for all intensive purposes?
I look forward to hearing some responses from some of the more experienced Baccarat players.
June 12th, 2013 at 5:36:46 PM
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Phil Ivey seems to think you can get an edge in Baccarat.
Vote for Nobody 2020!
June 12th, 2013 at 7:08:41 PM
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That is like saying a woman under a hair dryer in a beauty parlor is getting her hair dried. No... she is interacting with the woman beside her who is also under a dryer.
Baccarat seems to be a social interaction game played at large tables often with rather large stakes.
A great deal of pretense goes into the charting system and even greater pretense seems to go into relying on it.
In essence: Heads or Tails?
Baccarat seems to be a social interaction game played at large tables often with rather large stakes.
A great deal of pretense goes into the charting system and even greater pretense seems to go into relying on it.
In essence: Heads or Tails?
June 12th, 2013 at 7:48:04 PM
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baccarat is an addictive game because there are such crazy swings... you could have a 1 against a 3-card 8 and catch the 8 to win. or you could have a 0 against a 4 and the player catches a 6.
June 12th, 2013 at 10:26:54 PM
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Quote: gaming4titoI've been surfing through the forums and a large amount of discussion has been around Baccarat. Personally I've always been a fan of blackjack and recently craps while sticking to basic strategy and plays with the smallest -EV respectively.
Now I know in BJ you can gain a slight edge through card counting but is there any such mechanism that can you an edge in Baccarat?
Is there another layer of complexity in Baccarat that I am not seing, or is it basically a coin flip for all intensive purposes?
I look forward to hearing some responses from some of the more experienced Baccarat players.
I think you mean "for all intents and purposes."
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
June 13th, 2013 at 6:30:09 AM
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Yeah, it's a coin flip.
That is, unless you're edge sorting, (that's what Phil Ivey was accused of) or doing some other variety of cheating, there's no advantage play.
There ARE advantage plays with card conting in some of the side bets, but the basic game is a coin flip shrouded by mysterious scribbles on note paper supplied by the casino.
Read that again. The casino supples the note paper and pencil. What does THAT tell you?
That is, unless you're edge sorting, (that's what Phil Ivey was accused of) or doing some other variety of cheating, there's no advantage play.
There ARE advantage plays with card conting in some of the side bets, but the basic game is a coin flip shrouded by mysterious scribbles on note paper supplied by the casino.
Read that again. The casino supples the note paper and pencil. What does THAT tell you?
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
June 13th, 2013 at 7:46:52 AM
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Quote: gaming4titoIs there another layer of complexity in Baccarat that I am not seeing......
Yes, there is.
Baccarat is a closed-end, shoe game. You said just above that you've "been a fan a blackjack"; well, that, too, is a closed-end, shoe game. And I'm sure that you're very well aware that there are players that seek to take advantage of that fact by "counting down the remaining card values". That's their way of seeking an edge at their game. They have their way, and I have mine, and I dare say that mine provides as much an edge for me as theirs does them.
Shoes contain, rather often, certain characteristics. And the better they retain them, the better it is for a player such as myself. I am a trender. I seek to take advantage of those particular shoe characteristics wherever and whenever I can. Now, gaming4tito, the "wherever" and the "whenever" play vital roles in my overall trending game in so many ways. I will follow a good (read: sustaining) trend "wherever" it appears within the particular shoe, and so that might be the only bet option that I will take in that shoe (or portion thereof). And I will await the "sustaining" trend, "whenever" it may appear, for I am a patient and disciplined Baccarat player. And I am experienced enough to know the difference. Some shoes (or, certainly, portions thereof) are simply "untrendable"....that, my friend, is what "no-betting" is for. I am more than willing to pay the price of time as opposed to my bankroll.
Isn't that what those Blackjack counters do? Await the correct timing to bet? And, then, to adjust their bet sizes accordingly? Just how different, within these two separate and distinct shoe games, are we, after all? Sure, the counters have more of an exactness to their play as they have the "card values" on their side, but how much better or more valuable is that than my "domination" trend? Again, my contention is, not much...not much at all. We're both seeking an advantage in shoe composition....them in card values, me in shoe charateristics or trends.
Baccarat is my game of choice, because I know my way 'round a shoe as well as can be played, IMHO. I like to call that "playing to my strengths". (As I remember, I authored an entire thread on that very subject at another Forum, but I haven't the time here and now, because today is Thursday, and that means AC for tonight and tomorrow......assuming the torrential rainstorm doesn't "dampen" this evening's travel plans.)
June 13th, 2013 at 7:48:11 AM
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Quote: DJTeddyBearYeah, it's a coin flip.
That is, unless you're edge sorting, (that's what Phil Ivey was accused of) or doing some other variety of cheating, there's no advantage play.
There ARE advantage plays with card conting in some of the side bets, but the basic game is a coin flip shrouded by mysterious scribbles on note paper supplied by the casino.
Read that again. The casino supples the note paper and pencil. What does THAT tell you?
They now use a screen tracker, - like Roulette.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
June 13th, 2013 at 8:46:58 AM
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Quote: gaming4titoI've been surfing through the forums and a large amount of discussion has been around Baccarat. Personally I've always been a fan of blackjack and recently craps while sticking to basic strategy and plays with the smallest -EV respectively.
Now I know in BJ you can gain a slight edge through card counting but is there any such mechanism that can you an edge in Baccarat?
Is there another layer of complexity in Baccarat that I am not seing, or is it basically a coin flip for all intensive purposes?
I look forward to hearing some responses from some of the more experienced Baccarat players.
Most baccarat players are compulsive gamblers hung up on mathematically bogus concepts such as trending or streak-based systems.
About 95% of everything you'll read on baccarat is of that variety.
The other 5% is mathematicians essentially reprising two studies from the 60's and 70's by Edward Thorp and Peter Griffin which supposedly state that baccarat can't be counted (if you actually read Thorp's work his conclusions are more circumspect than people generally imply).
The problem is that the compulsive gamblers know shit about gambling theory, and the mathematicians know shit about actual gambling conditions and the practicalities of getting an advantage in the real world. They also generally exhibit a terminal lack of imagination when it comes to exploiting the unique vulnerability of the spectrum of opportunity at the very end of a baccarat shoe.
Baccarat can be counted profitably, but it requires spreading between the table minimum and maximum in a) very favourable conditions b) as a means of minimizing losses whilst qualifying for some loss-rebate or other promotion and/or c) at very high stakes. It requires a degree of mental sophistication few people are willing to spend on a card game, and good all-round advantage play skills.
This isn't something where you can read a book and learn how to do it. It wouldn't make any commercial sense to write such a book. You have to figure it out most of it for yourself though some of the better literature will show you at least what to look for.
June 13th, 2013 at 2:05:52 PM
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Edge sorting is not a variety of cheating.Quote: DJTeddyBearYeah, it's a coin flip.
That is, unless you're edge sorting, (that's what Phil Ivey was accused of) or doing some other variety of cheating, there's no advantage play.
There ARE advantage plays with card conting in some of the side bets, but the basic game is a coin flip shrouded by mysterious scribbles on note paper supplied by the casino.
Read that again. The casino supples the note paper and pencil. What does THAT tell you?
Happy days are here again
June 13th, 2013 at 3:55:11 PM
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Quote: gr8playerIsn't that what those Blackjack counters do? Await the correct timing to bet? And, then, to adjust their bet sizes accordingly? Just how different, within these two separate and distinct shoe games, are we, after all? Sure, the counters have more of an exactness to their play as they have the "card values" on their side, but how much better or more valuable is that than my "domination" trend? Again, my contention is, not much...not much at all. We're both seeking an advantage in shoe composition....them in card values, me in shoe charateristics or trends.
"We're both seeking an advantage in shoe composition, them in reality, me in pretend-land."
Seriously, though, to the OP, one needs to understand that often there is an inherent value to uncertainty. One could come up with however many evolutionary hypotheses for this, but at the end of the day value is subjective. Baccarat offers a thin edge, no opportunity to botch your edge (as long as you stay away from the tie bet), the whole "James Bond" image, and in tracking the shoe, the illusion of control as presented above, albeit not usually taken to such an extreme.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
June 13th, 2013 at 6:12:54 PM
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Quote: DJTeddyBearYeah, it's a coin flip.
That is, unless you're edge sorting, (that's what Phil Ivey was accused of) or doing some other variety of cheating, there's no advantage play.
There ARE advantage plays with card conting in some of the side bets, but the basic game is a coin flip shrouded by mysterious scribbles on note paper supplied by the casino.
Read that again. The casino supples the note paper and pencil. What does THAT tell you?
There are about thirty different other legitimate forms of AP at baccarat aside from counting side-bets and edge sorting.
The fact that casinos supply note paper and pencils tells you that there are lots of people who play bac who like to record streaks.
It tells you nothing about whether the game can be beaten in other ways.
June 13th, 2013 at 6:22:44 PM
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The base game may not be countable, but many of the side-bets are vulnerable to card counting.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
June 13th, 2013 at 10:59:41 PM
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With the Chinese, a lot of the theatre and drama in the game revolves around the squeeze. I also think the sharing of shrapnel helps engender a sense of camaraderie amongst the players.
June 14th, 2013 at 12:15:26 AM
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Quote: On 6/8, gr8player said:The fellas around here that claim that there exists no winning system are absolutely correct.
Quote: But then on 6/13, gr8player said:That's their way of seeking an edge at their game. They [BJ card counters] have their way, and I have mine, and I dare say that mine provides as much an edge for me as theirs does them.
You were right the first time, friend.
BTW, are you ever going to accept the challenge?
Fighting BS one post at a time!
June 15th, 2013 at 8:03:52 AM
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Beethoven9th, you're embarrassing yourself as you follow me around at every turn in this forum with your obsessant nonsence.
Now, you're pulling selective quotes of mine to have me appear ambiguous, but that simply is not true.
If you read my entire post, I stated that "there exists no winning system" that is both objective and mechanical in nature. My views change dramatically when considering a subjective and flexible approach to this game.
But, you already know that; you're familiar with my approach to this game. But, you can't really grasp it, or figure it out, so, you do the next best thing in your mind, you belittle it. Might it serve you better if you became a bit more introspective, and seek to improve your game from within? Nah....scratch that...it's so much easier to simply continue to follow up each of my posts with your utter tripe and foolishness.
Live with this, Beethoven9th: I could post "The Grail" right here in this thread, right here in this post. Step-by-step and rather doable for most committed, experienced players. I have no problem assisting fellow Baccarat players, and have done so rather willingly in the past.* The one thing stopping me from doing so is the presence of trolls such as yourself. Live with that.
*Sorry, but I cannot respond to the multiple, singular PM's that I've received. I simply haven't the time. I can reach so many more players by posting here in the general forum.
Now, you're pulling selective quotes of mine to have me appear ambiguous, but that simply is not true.
If you read my entire post, I stated that "there exists no winning system" that is both objective and mechanical in nature. My views change dramatically when considering a subjective and flexible approach to this game.
But, you already know that; you're familiar with my approach to this game. But, you can't really grasp it, or figure it out, so, you do the next best thing in your mind, you belittle it. Might it serve you better if you became a bit more introspective, and seek to improve your game from within? Nah....scratch that...it's so much easier to simply continue to follow up each of my posts with your utter tripe and foolishness.
Live with this, Beethoven9th: I could post "The Grail" right here in this thread, right here in this post. Step-by-step and rather doable for most committed, experienced players. I have no problem assisting fellow Baccarat players, and have done so rather willingly in the past.* The one thing stopping me from doing so is the presence of trolls such as yourself. Live with that.
*Sorry, but I cannot respond to the multiple, singular PM's that I've received. I simply haven't the time. I can reach so many more players by posting here in the general forum.
June 15th, 2013 at 8:33:34 AM
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gr8player......It's Beethoven9th's job along with a dozen or so regulars to make sure that you understand that you can't win -EV game while basically calling you a dumb ass for believing otherwise. Why you keep coming back for the beat down is the big question. My advice to you would be to stop trying to convince certain types that you can win......swear off the forum and spend your time at the tables and win.
Each day is better than the next
June 15th, 2013 at 9:10:09 AM
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You're right, Treetopbuddy, and thanks for your interest. Most probably, all I'm doing is feeding right into their unsavory intentions by responding to their folly. What a complete waste of time and energy. Shame on me......
June 15th, 2013 at 10:46:40 AM
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Quote: treetopbuddygr8player......spend your time at the tables and win.
Witness Thursday night session 10:00 PM buy-in:
Started a bit rough, but nothing unsual....highest drawdown at mid-shoe was 4 units. My trends weren't holding well enough where I could profit on them. At least, not yet. Then came an "opposite run" opportunity....I haven't the time or, frankly, the desire right now to explain my "opposite run" trend....and I hit a pair of parlays and left the parlay amount ride on my final bet. Won 4 units after tips (no commish...EZ bac).
Friday afternoon session 12:45 PM buy-in:
Ahhh....if all sessions can be like this one. Winning straight out of the box with the "2-hole" filling rather well. A 1/2 hr session that had me winning 7 units after tips (again, no commish). I was up 9 units at one time, but lost back 2 units and a "spring" hit my seat, propelling me to the cage with my winnings intact. I don't turn winning sessions into losers, ever.....
Topped it all off with a wonderful rib-eye dinner in the Old Homestead @ Borgata.
June 15th, 2013 at 11:09:04 AM
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gr8,
You always seem to attract the Egalites/Johno types. Don't get too riled up. Please realize this. 98% of people who head to the tables lose. In most cases you are going to interact with folks who are within this 98% so you are going to be facing nothing but resistance. I just got back from a great trip to the Wynn last week and actually met a player who knows how to properly grind out a shoe. Didn't get to really have a conversation with him since we were both concentrating with our plays but had a few good words exchanged. A very memorable quote he stressed, "There is no need for advice really. The good/great players don't need it and the suckers and idiots are not going to heed it."
Got a question for you regarding the Borgata. Have you ever played on a Friday evening to the weekends? Reason I am asking is that during the week the only tables that open in the low limit area are those damn annoying EZ Bac tables. I wonder if you drop by during the weekends and know if all the bac tables are opened.
Funny thing is that Borgata is very good with comps even if you play bac. I have only played there twice and yet I am getting very good comps like free rooms and meals. Something not as liberal in Vegas unless you lay in big huge bets.
Now on a more interesting note. Hopefully Steve Wynn gets to built his two casinos in the East Coast especially at Everett, MA. Something I have been looking forward to for a good while. Those damn plane rides out to Vegas are freaking annoying not to forget expensive.
You always seem to attract the Egalites/Johno types. Don't get too riled up. Please realize this. 98% of people who head to the tables lose. In most cases you are going to interact with folks who are within this 98% so you are going to be facing nothing but resistance. I just got back from a great trip to the Wynn last week and actually met a player who knows how to properly grind out a shoe. Didn't get to really have a conversation with him since we were both concentrating with our plays but had a few good words exchanged. A very memorable quote he stressed, "There is no need for advice really. The good/great players don't need it and the suckers and idiots are not going to heed it."
Got a question for you regarding the Borgata. Have you ever played on a Friday evening to the weekends? Reason I am asking is that during the week the only tables that open in the low limit area are those damn annoying EZ Bac tables. I wonder if you drop by during the weekends and know if all the bac tables are opened.
Funny thing is that Borgata is very good with comps even if you play bac. I have only played there twice and yet I am getting very good comps like free rooms and meals. Something not as liberal in Vegas unless you lay in big huge bets.
Now on a more interesting note. Hopefully Steve Wynn gets to built his two casinos in the East Coast especially at Everett, MA. Something I have been looking forward to for a good while. Those damn plane rides out to Vegas are freaking annoying not to forget expensive.
June 15th, 2013 at 1:47:11 PM
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D-man, thanks for your interest and support. Always appreciated.
I don't get many weekends off, so I can't comment much 'bout that. But, last night (Fri nite), before I left, the joint was jumpin'. They had a few EZ bac tables going, and they had a couple of midi-bac tables open, as well. The midi-bacs, to the best of my knowledge, are not of the EZ bac variety.
I must tell you, D-man, that I, too, had disdain for those tables. Nobody wants to see their bet pushed back at them after a win. But, honestly, I've come to a point where I don't mind them as much anymore. Why? Well, according to the Wiz, the house edge is actually lower on the EZ bac games. And regarding those "pushes" on the 3-card 7 bank wins, well, frankly, it affects you only if you happened to have been betting for the bank at that particular time. IOW, say there's 2 dragons per shoe, you might not even have had a bank bet working at the time, in which case the effect is nullified.
Look, yesterday I had a 2-unit (parlay) bet up and boom...dragon 7 hits. Sure, it hurt a bit. But, I simply awaited the next banker "2-hole" opportunity and put my parlayed bet onto that one and hit it there. It is what it is. If you want to stay and play at the Borgata (and I happen to like that place for a myriad of reasons), I suppose we must learn to adjust to those dragon 7 pushes.
The bright side: zero commish. I'm a grinder, which means that I "stay and play", whatever it takes to succeed, so sometimes those commissions add up a bit over the course of an extended session. Not at EZ bac. Zero.
That all said, do I prefer the standard bac? Indeed I do. But my hotel preferences mean alot to me, as well. So Borgata remains a part of my casino "rotation".
Finally, yes, the Borgata is generous with their comp dollars. But it bears noting that, in the stores, they are redeemed at only a 1 for 2 ratio. So a $50 shirt costs you 100 comp dollars. Gotta take that into consideration, my friend.
Nice to see you posting, D-man, and again, thanks for your continued support. Means that much more coming from a confirmed, real Baccarat player such as yourself. Be well.
I don't get many weekends off, so I can't comment much 'bout that. But, last night (Fri nite), before I left, the joint was jumpin'. They had a few EZ bac tables going, and they had a couple of midi-bac tables open, as well. The midi-bacs, to the best of my knowledge, are not of the EZ bac variety.
I must tell you, D-man, that I, too, had disdain for those tables. Nobody wants to see their bet pushed back at them after a win. But, honestly, I've come to a point where I don't mind them as much anymore. Why? Well, according to the Wiz, the house edge is actually lower on the EZ bac games. And regarding those "pushes" on the 3-card 7 bank wins, well, frankly, it affects you only if you happened to have been betting for the bank at that particular time. IOW, say there's 2 dragons per shoe, you might not even have had a bank bet working at the time, in which case the effect is nullified.
Look, yesterday I had a 2-unit (parlay) bet up and boom...dragon 7 hits. Sure, it hurt a bit. But, I simply awaited the next banker "2-hole" opportunity and put my parlayed bet onto that one and hit it there. It is what it is. If you want to stay and play at the Borgata (and I happen to like that place for a myriad of reasons), I suppose we must learn to adjust to those dragon 7 pushes.
The bright side: zero commish. I'm a grinder, which means that I "stay and play", whatever it takes to succeed, so sometimes those commissions add up a bit over the course of an extended session. Not at EZ bac. Zero.
That all said, do I prefer the standard bac? Indeed I do. But my hotel preferences mean alot to me, as well. So Borgata remains a part of my casino "rotation".
Finally, yes, the Borgata is generous with their comp dollars. But it bears noting that, in the stores, they are redeemed at only a 1 for 2 ratio. So a $50 shirt costs you 100 comp dollars. Gotta take that into consideration, my friend.
Nice to see you posting, D-man, and again, thanks for your continued support. Means that much more coming from a confirmed, real Baccarat player such as yourself. Be well.
June 15th, 2013 at 2:07:12 PM
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gr8player,
If I wanted to extend my knowledge past the basic rules/strategies outlined on the wizard of odds site (fantastic site by the way), where do you suggest as a starting point (literature, sites, other)?
Thanks again for all of your input on my thread and the forum in general.
If I wanted to extend my knowledge past the basic rules/strategies outlined on the wizard of odds site (fantastic site by the way), where do you suggest as a starting point (literature, sites, other)?
Thanks again for all of your input on my thread and the forum in general.
June 15th, 2013 at 4:17:25 PM
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Quote: gaming4titoIf I wanted to extend my knowledge past the basic rules/strategies outlined on the wizard of odds site (fantastic site by the way), where do you suggest as a starting point (literature, sites, other)?
Thanks again for all of your input on my thread and the forum in general.
You're better off flipping a coin than listening to people who claim to get an "advantage" at baccarat while avoiding the challenge.
Fighting BS one post at a time!
June 15th, 2013 at 4:18:58 PM
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Quote: gaming4titogr8player,
If I wanted to extend my knowledge past the basic rules/strategies outlined on the wizard of odds site (fantastic site by the way), where do you suggest as a starting point (literature, sites, other)?
Thanks again for all of your input on my thread and the forum in general.
gaming4tito, run, don't walk. gr8player simply believes he has a magical rapport with the shoe. Look through some of his other posts - you'll end up feeling like freaking Alice.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
June 17th, 2013 at 8:41:17 AM
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No "magic" necessary, 24Bingo, simply an all-around knowledge of a few preferred trends. And their avg strike rates and win/loss streaks. And a money-management plan built around those statistics. And the necessary patience to await them and the discipline to bet only for them. And strategic exit points, based upon my most current results.
Avert your eyes, 24Bingo (and the countless others on this site that all think as one around here), for I'm "expecting" a "negative" reaction from you guys:
Your paltry 1% doesn't stand a chance vs the likes of me.
And what of that 1% negative odds???? Aren't we used to seeing negative odds overcome all the time....odds much, much greater than 1%:
David vs Goliath
Revolutionaries vs British
American "Amatuer" Hockey Team vs Russian "Pros"
Cancer Patients vs The Big "C" w/full recovery
(I haven't the time nor the inclination to post the thousands more examples that exist.)
Odds are what they are...odds. Not to be confused with guarantees. And they're there to be beaten.
But that takes work. Due dilligence. Devotion. Discipline.
Heck with that....much easier to calculate that negative 1% house edge and let that alone be my singular excuse for failure. And, know this, my friends, failure before even any solid attempt at success is, IMHO, the greatest form of cowardice.
Soap box mode off......
OK, 24Bingo, you can get back out from under your computer desk now. All is safe in your world yet again.
Avert your eyes, 24Bingo (and the countless others on this site that all think as one around here), for I'm "expecting" a "negative" reaction from you guys:
Your paltry 1% doesn't stand a chance vs the likes of me.
And what of that 1% negative odds???? Aren't we used to seeing negative odds overcome all the time....odds much, much greater than 1%:
David vs Goliath
Revolutionaries vs British
American "Amatuer" Hockey Team vs Russian "Pros"
Cancer Patients vs The Big "C" w/full recovery
(I haven't the time nor the inclination to post the thousands more examples that exist.)
Odds are what they are...odds. Not to be confused with guarantees. And they're there to be beaten.
But that takes work. Due dilligence. Devotion. Discipline.
Heck with that....much easier to calculate that negative 1% house edge and let that alone be my singular excuse for failure. And, know this, my friends, failure before even any solid attempt at success is, IMHO, the greatest form of cowardice.
Soap box mode off......
OK, 24Bingo, you can get back out from under your computer desk now. All is safe in your world yet again.
June 17th, 2013 at 9:11:40 AM
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None of the ideas put forth by gr8player are mathematically sound. None of them have any chance of long-term success. Trend following by definition uses past results to predict future outcomes. That methodology is fundamentally flawed and foolishly applied.
Due dilligence? Really? It's so easy to see why this can't possibly work. What due diligence could possibly have been performed when the negative case is laid out in elementary school math textbooks and still overlooked by trend followers?
Due dilligence? Really? It's so easy to see why this can't possibly work. What due diligence could possibly have been performed when the negative case is laid out in elementary school math textbooks and still overlooked by trend followers?
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
June 17th, 2013 at 9:42:25 AM
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Quote: gr8playerYour paltry 1% doesn't stand a chance vs the likes of me.
And what of that 1% negative odds???? Aren't we used to seeing negative odds overcome all the time....odds much, much greater than 1%:
David vs Goliath
Revolutionaries vs British
American "Amatuer" Hockey Team vs Russian "Pros"
Cancer Patients vs The Big "C" w/full recovery
(I haven't the time nor the inclination to post the thousands more examples that exist.)
One thing you may notice about these is that all of them are short-term victories, the equivalent of winning a single hand at baccarat. I don't think anyone ever said you couldn't win a single hand. Improbable things happen - the bastard is when.
Another is that in all of them, the underdog had some control over the proverbial "cards." In baccarat, you can only choose which hand to play, and both of them give you that same 1%, (virtually) no matter the shoe composition.
Quote: gr8playerOdds are what they are...odds. Not to be confused with guarantees. And they're there to be beaten.
But that takes work. Due dilligence. Devotion. Discipline.
Yes - odds are there to be beaten.
Yes - if you have some control over the outcome, it's better to change the odds than to beat them.
No - if your fate is in the turn of a card, what it takes is luck, and her ears are deaf to diligence and devotion.
No - you have no control.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
June 17th, 2013 at 10:36:49 AM
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Quote: gr8playerYour paltry 1% doesn't stand a chance vs the likes of me.
Apparently, it does. Otherwise, you wouldn't keep avoiding the challenge. Guess you must not like your 'chances'.
Quote: gr8playerAnd what of that 1% negative odds???? Aren't we used to seeing negative odds overcome all the time....odds much, much greater than 1%:
[snip]
Odds are what they are...odds. Not to be confused with guarantees. And they're there to be beaten.
LOL! I guess gr8player doesn't understand simple math because a House Advantage of 1.06% does guarantee that the house will win.
gr8player, 2 + 2 does not equal 5, regardless of what you say.
Fighting BS one post at a time!
June 18th, 2013 at 12:38:05 PM
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I respect both your statements and the manner in which you present them, rdw4potus and 24Bingo. Good job of conveyance.
That said, I remain compelled to retain my beliefs, as well.
I know that terms such as "patience", "discipline", "trending" and "money-management" appear as folly to the vast majority of members of this forum.
Please know, however, that they are of paramount importance to me as they relate to my Baccarat play.
Whether or not my play beats their house edge is a matter of conjecture, and forever muddled by misunderstandings and misrepresentations.
I do what I can to win. Sometimes I'm successful, sometimes not. But I always do what I can to win, putting myself in the best possible position. Or, at least, what I consider, based upon my vast playing experience, the best possible position to succeed.
24Bingo and rdw4potus, what would you have me do? Cease playing? Cease posting? Both?
I came to this forum in the hopes that I might inspire some Baccarat-related dialogue; witness my very first thread, "Desperately Seeking Baccarat". I've failed to generate enough common interests for any real Baccarat discussion, save for those that believe solely in the utter impossibility of negating the daunted house edge. Their knowledge, their interest, and their related posts all begin and end right there. The house edge rules the roost; your play, my play, anyone's play amasses to nothing in comparison.
OK.
As I stated at the opening of this post, you guys have represented and stated your views impeccably. But, that all said, I hope that you fellas understand that you're imparting information that I've been familiar with for years; the house edge, and its effects, I am very well aware of and recognize as vital.
My entire "defensive arsenal" is built for the house edge. I bet less hands and I exit expeditiously, all done as a strategic answer to the house edge.
I am aware of it. I am attempting to overcome it. You guys render that an "impossibility", I render it an "opportunity".
I just wish there were a few more "opportunists" around here, for it's getting rather lonely.......
That said, I remain compelled to retain my beliefs, as well.
I know that terms such as "patience", "discipline", "trending" and "money-management" appear as folly to the vast majority of members of this forum.
Please know, however, that they are of paramount importance to me as they relate to my Baccarat play.
Whether or not my play beats their house edge is a matter of conjecture, and forever muddled by misunderstandings and misrepresentations.
I do what I can to win. Sometimes I'm successful, sometimes not. But I always do what I can to win, putting myself in the best possible position. Or, at least, what I consider, based upon my vast playing experience, the best possible position to succeed.
24Bingo and rdw4potus, what would you have me do? Cease playing? Cease posting? Both?
I came to this forum in the hopes that I might inspire some Baccarat-related dialogue; witness my very first thread, "Desperately Seeking Baccarat". I've failed to generate enough common interests for any real Baccarat discussion, save for those that believe solely in the utter impossibility of negating the daunted house edge. Their knowledge, their interest, and their related posts all begin and end right there. The house edge rules the roost; your play, my play, anyone's play amasses to nothing in comparison.
OK.
As I stated at the opening of this post, you guys have represented and stated your views impeccably. But, that all said, I hope that you fellas understand that you're imparting information that I've been familiar with for years; the house edge, and its effects, I am very well aware of and recognize as vital.
My entire "defensive arsenal" is built for the house edge. I bet less hands and I exit expeditiously, all done as a strategic answer to the house edge.
I am aware of it. I am attempting to overcome it. You guys render that an "impossibility", I render it an "opportunity".
I just wish there were a few more "opportunists" around here, for it's getting rather lonely.......
June 18th, 2013 at 1:30:23 PM
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gr8player....you have fought valiantly. It's time you pass the torch on to someone else. Hey, I've watched a guy put a hurting on the house at the Horseshoe in Cincy. He takes advantage of the 10 min 100,000 max spread. His play appears to be fairly mechanical. Uses steep progressions and not afraid to spread out 1,000 times off his off the top bet.
Each day is better than the next
June 18th, 2013 at 2:21:34 PM
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Hello, TTB. Thank you for your kind words.
Wow. I've never seen a thousand-multiple spread. Max I'd ever seen was 500. Regardless, I steer clear of "steep progressions". And my disdain for steep negative progressions is borne more from common sense than it is from fear.
Those that utilize those "kamikaze" progressions are not as fearless as it may appear; rather, their main fear is losing. So their progression has them "loading up", bet after losing bet, all in the name of the quickest recoup possible. To eradicate their losses asap.
All works rather well, until.......they fall over the cliff. And with that fall goes all the profit they've ever made, and then some. Inevitable. An accident just waiting to happen.
I'm cut more of the "grinder's" cloth. I'll pick up my wins along the way, some larger than others, some smaller than, all dependent upon the current results of the current session. Sometimes, simple recoup is the order of the day, and I'm happy with avoiding a potential loss. And on those days where the seat is getting a bit hotter than I'd like, I'd immediately revert to "termination" mode, seeking to end this ill-fated session as best feasible for myself.
So, summarily, my posture....most any true "grinder's" posture....is defense-minded first, or, if you will, loss avoidance.
Wins are an off-shoot of my play. They happen. I'm always happy to accept a win.
But my play is defined by my grind. My patient, disciplined grind. And my strategic exit points that follow, regardless win, lose, or draw.
I'm quite certain, TTB, that I won't win nearly the amount of sessions that your Cincy friend might. He's using the brute force of his bankroll to ensure a certain rather lofty win percentage, session-wise. Nothing wrong with that if that's where his comfort zone lies. I just hope, for his sake, that those wins out-pace those occassional steeper losses. Could be. Who knows, but him? You said he "put a hurting on the house"......
Well, I wish he and yourself and all of us all the very best of it. Be well.
Wow. I've never seen a thousand-multiple spread. Max I'd ever seen was 500. Regardless, I steer clear of "steep progressions". And my disdain for steep negative progressions is borne more from common sense than it is from fear.
Those that utilize those "kamikaze" progressions are not as fearless as it may appear; rather, their main fear is losing. So their progression has them "loading up", bet after losing bet, all in the name of the quickest recoup possible. To eradicate their losses asap.
All works rather well, until.......they fall over the cliff. And with that fall goes all the profit they've ever made, and then some. Inevitable. An accident just waiting to happen.
I'm cut more of the "grinder's" cloth. I'll pick up my wins along the way, some larger than others, some smaller than, all dependent upon the current results of the current session. Sometimes, simple recoup is the order of the day, and I'm happy with avoiding a potential loss. And on those days where the seat is getting a bit hotter than I'd like, I'd immediately revert to "termination" mode, seeking to end this ill-fated session as best feasible for myself.
So, summarily, my posture....most any true "grinder's" posture....is defense-minded first, or, if you will, loss avoidance.
Wins are an off-shoot of my play. They happen. I'm always happy to accept a win.
But my play is defined by my grind. My patient, disciplined grind. And my strategic exit points that follow, regardless win, lose, or draw.
I'm quite certain, TTB, that I won't win nearly the amount of sessions that your Cincy friend might. He's using the brute force of his bankroll to ensure a certain rather lofty win percentage, session-wise. Nothing wrong with that if that's where his comfort zone lies. I just hope, for his sake, that those wins out-pace those occassional steeper losses. Could be. Who knows, but him? You said he "put a hurting on the house"......
Well, I wish he and yourself and all of us all the very best of it. Be well.
June 18th, 2013 at 4:12:18 PM
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This Big Player plays all 3 tables simultaneously. He's leaves his chips (lots of orange) on center table and walks back and forth from table to table. Apparently he drives down from Columbus everyday to play. He chases losses and will stop betting sequence at different times for no rhyme or reason as near as I can tell.....probably a function of bankroll. I've seen him bet 25K and win. I've been told he bet 55k on a hand and won. No telling how much bank he has behind him. He's right out of Macau which makes him an expert on the game.
Each day is better than the next
June 18th, 2013 at 5:22:51 PM
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25K, 55K....yeah, that's "whale" territory, my friend. I'd sure hope he's an "expert on the game" if he's to continue shoving those kinds of bets across the felt. Wow. That's beyond my comprehension....I couldn't even dream of betting like that. It's not a matter of any envy; just an amazement.
In AC, the whales are not on the main casino floor, preferring a bit more privacy. I've seen these guys take up all of the spots on the table, or, at the very least, reserve the entire table for themselves. Still, even then, their bets as I've witnessed them have fallen within the 20K max's or less. Usually they're 5 to 10K at most. And even at those numbers my amazement still reigns.....
Ah, well....what's that expression?.....To each his own.
In AC, the whales are not on the main casino floor, preferring a bit more privacy. I've seen these guys take up all of the spots on the table, or, at the very least, reserve the entire table for themselves. Still, even then, their bets as I've witnessed them have fallen within the 20K max's or less. Usually they're 5 to 10K at most. And even at those numbers my amazement still reigns.....
Ah, well....what's that expression?.....To each his own.
June 18th, 2013 at 5:42:01 PM
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The guy has been playing Bac for 30 plus years.....he never sits down.......stays calm even when winning or losing the big bets......if he reversed his play and used positive progressions he could give the house a tough game with the spread the house is willing to except.
Traders who crush the market are the guys that add to winning positions (pyramiding) as stock is going up or continue to short as stock is going down. Same can be applied to gambling in IMHO.
Traders who crush the market are the guys that add to winning positions (pyramiding) as stock is going up or continue to short as stock is going down. Same can be applied to gambling in IMHO.
Each day is better than the next
June 18th, 2013 at 6:59:11 PM
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Quote: On 6/17 gr8player said:Your paltry 1% doesn't stand a chance vs the likes of me.
Quote: But the very next day, he said:that's "whale" territory, my friend...I couldn't even dream of betting like that.
So the house "doesn't stand a chance vs. the likes of you", but you refuse to bet and win big?? Hmm...
Fighting BS one post at a time!
June 19th, 2013 at 8:35:56 AM
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Quote: treetopbuddy......if he reversed his play and used positive progressions he could give the house a tough game with the spread the house is willing to except.
Not necessarily, TTB.
He's probably figured it out already that, given the large bet spread that this casino is allowing him, he's better served playing some sort of negative progression, so that his recoup could be facilitated. Given a big enough spread combined with big enough "cajones" and that player could make himself "one tough out" for the casino.
That said, TTB, make no mistake of it, I would never endorse that sort of play. I play a combination of positive and negative progressions, and, even at that, it's only after my flat betting has come up short for this particular session. So my play is dramatically more conservative in nature than anything that your whale might be accustomed to.
That doesn't make me any more right or him any more wrong; we're all better served by playing to our own personal comfort zones. Our first responsibility as Baccarat players is to "listen to our inner selves", and construct a plan of play that is sympatico within our own personal goals. That would include, but not be limited to, bet sizes, progression usages, win/loss goals/limits, and exit strategies. I call that "playing to your strengths". Imperative, IMHO.
June 19th, 2013 at 10:31:38 AM
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His favorite play seemed to be.....wait for two Banker or Players in a row then start betting opposite side until resolved using steep progression early and then flattening out progression after several losses. He will abandon progression if not going his way but for no apparent reason will chase up to 55K and maybe more on some occasions. It looks like for the most part he's betting house won't get 6 in a row and attacks early with steep progression. I've been told he's up big but who really knows....
Each day is better than the next
June 19th, 2013 at 11:54:49 AM
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Quote: gr8player24Bingo and rdw4potus, what would you have me do? Cease playing? Cease posting? Both?
No - cease lying to yourself (and trying to bring others such as gaming4tito down with you). You can win, yes, but don't think your diligence or devotion has anything to do with it, but just getting the right cards. You have no control.
Quote: gr8playerI came to this forum in the hopes that I might inspire some Baccarat-related dialogue; witness my very first thread, "Desperately Seeking Baccarat". I've failed to generate enough common interests for any real Baccarat discussion, save for those that believe solely in the utter impossibility of negating the daunted house edge. Their knowledge, their interest, and their related posts all begin and end right there. The house edge rules the roost; your play, my play, anyone's play amasses to nothing in comparison.
Because it does. Your play doesn't matter, only your luck. It's not that you can't win, it's that you can't improve your chances of winning. You have no control.
Quote: gr8playerMy entire "defensive arsenal" is built for the house edge. I bet less hands and I exit expeditiously, all done as a strategic answer to the house edge.
Your play is one long session. Playing 10,000 hands over ten years is no different, at the end, from doing the same over ten days. One day you're up, and you get up to bank your win; another you're down, and you get up to cut your losses; add it all up, and it's as if you never left. You have no control.
Quote: gr8playerI am aware of it. I am attempting to overcome it. You guys render that an "impossibility", I render it an "opportunity".
Fine. Just don't render it "player's edge," or "my math," or compare yourself to a card counter, or think the thought you've put into your rituals gives you anything on those who don't have any. You have the opportunity, and feel free to take it, but remember you have no control.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
June 19th, 2013 at 12:58:18 PM
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Quote: 24BingoNo - cease lying to yourself (and trying to bring others such as gaming4tito down with you). You can win, yes, but don't think your diligence or devotion has anything to do with it, but just getting the right cards. You have no control.
Because it does. Your play doesn't matter, only your luck. It's not that you can't win, it's that you can't improve your chances of winning. You have no control.
Your play is one long session. Playing 10,000 hands over ten years is no different, at the end, from doing the same over ten days. One day you're up, and you get up to bank your win; another you're down, and you get up to cut your losses; add it all up, and it's as if you never left. You have no control.
Fine. Just don't render it "player's edge," or "my math," or compare yourself to a card counter, or think the thought you've put into your rituals gives you anything on those who don't have any. You have the opportunity, and feel free to take it, but remember you have no control.
One question comes to mind as I read your last post, 24Bingo: Do you think I have any control? Sheeesh...
On a much, much more serious note, please know that I've never been guilty of, as you put it, "trying to bring others such as gaming4tito down with you(me)". You should know, 24Bingo, that I've posted some rather useful and pertinant information regarding relatively conservative approaches to this game and the mentality that it takes to adapt to those approaches; to denigrate all that I post under one broad stroke of your prejudicial brush is, at best, a huge error in judgement, and, at worst, rather slanderous towards my well-meant intentions.
Oh, and yes, 24Bingo, I sure do have control. Might not be over the turn-of-a-card....I get that point. But I sure do maintain control over that which that I'm able to; bet placements, "no-betting", bet sizing, and exit strategies. If that, to you, is not control; well, suffice to say, it's no wonder that we're at a huge impasse in our approaches and our thoughts regarding this game.
June 19th, 2013 at 10:26:51 PM
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More of when as opposed to if. When that day comes whereby some Ed Thorp type fellow comes in and publicly unveils and reveals a statistically sound method to engage baccarat, what would all of these negative folks would say then? If that day comes it would be a total "disaster" for baccarat in the likes of blackjack. Probably even worse. No scoreboards. No recording allowed. Total chaos. Hopefully that day is later than sooner.
June 19th, 2013 at 10:32:25 PM
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deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
June 19th, 2013 at 10:51:29 PM
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Quote: gr8playerAnd I will await the "sustaining" trend, "whenever" it may appear, for I am a patient and disciplined Baccarat player. And I am experienced enough to know the difference....
Isn't that what those Blackjack counters do? Await the correct timing to bet? And, then, to adjust their bet sizes accordingly? Just how different, within these two separate and distinct shoe games, are we, after all?
Blackjack has a distinct attribute which other games do not have. A blackjack wins for a dealer, but a blackjack not only wins for a player, but gives him a 50% bonus in payout. Hence if a blackjack is more likely to come in the next hand, it may go to a player or a dealer, but it will only provide the bonus for a player.
Basically a card counter is waiting to put his big money on the table when there is an increased probability of a blackjack. He is looking to see if the remainder of the deck has a higher proportion of 10's and Aces than normal. He can't make a blackjack appear, and he can't control if he or the dealer will get the BJ, but he is playing probabilities. Preferably a BJ counter would like to play one on one with a dealer, since there is no chance another player will get the BJ.
He is not looking for a sustained trends of wins and losses. Statistics about past wins or losses are completely immaterial., he only cares what cards are played so he knows what cards are left.
If a BJ counter was playing a machine or a dealer who shuffled with every hand, he would have no information. A streak of 20 wins or losses in row would tell him nothing, just like a streak of 20 wins or losses in baccarat would tell you nothing.
So what you are doing is profoundly different than a blackjack counter.
June 20th, 2013 at 2:01:54 AM
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Not necessarily. Its just that a "trend" in Baccarat is hard to define, perhaps because trend reversal is hard to define.Quote: gr8player
I know that terms such as "patience", "discipline", "trending" and "money-management" appear as folly to the vast majority of members of this forum.
Yes, the word "trend" is based solely upon past events and it is difficult to know how much weight to give to past events.
If a dozen beautiful young women throw themselves at my feet and beg me to take them to my suite, that is a trend and clearly the events will continue to take place. If however a dozen beautiful young women slap my face and yell "Beat it, you Fat Old Geezer", clearly these are isolated events and have no effect on the future whatsoever. Its the same with "Player" and "Banker", I tend to wonder just how much weight to give to these past events.
June 20th, 2013 at 6:15:44 AM
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This has got to be one of my favorite WoV posts:
So we're supposed to believe that the mathematics regarding baccarat can be beaten because of, say, the Miracle on Ice?????
....which isn't even based on mathematics!
*facepalm*
Quote: gr8playerYour paltry 1% doesn't stand a chance vs the likes of me.
And what of that 1% negative odds???? Aren't we used to seeing negative odds overcome all the time....odds much, much greater than 1%:
David vs Goliath
Revolutionaries vs British
American "Amatuer" Hockey Team vs Russian "Pros"
Cancer Patients vs The Big "C" w/full recovery
(I haven't the time nor the inclination to post the thousands more examples that exist.)
Odds are what they are...odds. Not to be confused with guarantees. And they're there to be beaten.
So we're supposed to believe that the mathematics regarding baccarat can be beaten because of, say, the Miracle on Ice?????
....which isn't even based on mathematics!
*facepalm*
Fighting BS one post at a time!
June 20th, 2013 at 6:45:15 AM
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Quote: Beethoven9thThis has got to be one of my favorite WoV posts:
So we're supposed to believe that the mathematics regarding baccarat can be beaten because of, say, the Miracle on Ice?????
....which isn't even based on mathematics!
*facepalm*
Seriously! We won the Revolutionary War, so math doesn't matter! I guess that explains why it's taught so poorly in American schools...
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
June 20th, 2013 at 7:15:14 AM
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Yep. New signature time.Quote: Beethoven9thThis has got to be one of my favorite WoV posts:
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
June 20th, 2013 at 7:40:39 AM
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Quote: teddysYep. New signature time.
LOL
Fighting BS one post at a time!
June 20th, 2013 at 8:02:20 AM
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Quote: FleaStiffIts just that a "trend" in Baccarat is hard to define, perhaps because trend reversal is hard to define.
Ahhhh, FleaStiff, where can I send your favorite drink so that we might toast, together, in celebration of the most poignant line I've read since joining this forum?
Thank you.
The key to successful trending, my friend, is the ability to recognize, as you so aptly put it, "trend reversals". And, of course, by "recognition" I mean "definition". Same difference.
You see, FleaStiff, trending alone will offer little in terms of any mathematical advantage to the player. The next hand, and the one after that, and the one after that, are all subject to the whims of any turn-of-a-card game; all hands dealt are rendered as 50/50 propositions. This is exactly why the "beat down" perpetuates in a forum such as this one, where the mathematics and the house edge are the order of the day (actually, 'round here, it's the order of the hour, minute, and even second).
But that is because they are calculating each hand exactly THE SAME. A true trender knows...KNOWS...that all decisions (B/P) are NOT EQUAL.
(Sidenote: The mathematical disadvantage remains on each hand, so the house edge is intact at every deal of the cards.)
A true trender will:
"No-bet" (read: sit out) those hands where there is no discernable trend.
Vary his bet size based upon his current statistics on each particular preferred trend play.
And, last but not least, as it pertains to trending,...are you listening, FleaStiff?...recognize the "trend reversal" and use that information, just as he would the regular trends, to either "no-bet", "bet", or, again, "vary bet size".
For example:
How many times do we encounter shoes where, say, the Banker streak has been limited to 2? Or maybe 3. Might a savvy trender utilize that information as he decides his next bet? Me? I'd be betting Player, expecting the B-streak to remain short-lived. Should I lose that bet...trend reversal, anyone?...I'm right back betting on that B-streak's "new top" to continue to roll.
That's just one in my few "preferred trend" arsenal. (Oh, and what I do...how I react...should that second bet lose...therein lies the rub, my friends...might I record that trend failure and use those current stats on that one trend to "alter my bet size" so that I both recoup and profit rather expeditiously at its next sighting? Or next?)
I said it before and it bears repeating: I could post The Grail, as I both see and play it, right here in this forum if I chose to do so.
For rather obvious reasons, however....what's that expression?...."some things are best left unsaid".
June 20th, 2013 at 11:33:37 AM
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Quote: teddysYep. New signature time.
Post of the Month, unless something beats it...and technically, it's your signature, not the post.
In the spirit of your nomination, and my affinity for Video Keno, I will also alter my signature for the remainder of the month.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
June 20th, 2013 at 11:43:58 AM
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Quote: gr8player
How many times do we encounter shoes where, say, the Banker streak has been limited to 2? Or maybe 3. Might a savvy trender utilize that information as he decides his next bet? Me? I'd be betting Player, expecting the B-streak to remain short-lived. Should I lose that bet...trend reversal, anyone?...I'm right back betting on that B-streak's "new top" to continue to roll.
That's just one in my few "preferred trend" arsenal. (Oh, and what I do...how I react...should that second bet lose...therein lies the rub, my friends...might I record that trend failure and use those current stats on that one trend to "alter my bet size" so that I both recoup and profit rather expeditiously at its next sighting? Or next?)
I'd rather use clairvoyance, you don't need to bother with a pen and paper.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
