2024 WOV Picks Game Discussion Thread

I've sunk to 3rd from the bottom - so that list looks about right to me.

It would have been nice to get a few weeks around 50/50 before plummeting to the bottom :-)

Here are the week 1 results. 55-31 overall.

Player	Week 1 Record	Win%
avianrandy:	4-1	80%
fourfiveface:	3-2	60%
genwyzgy:	4-2	66.7%
gordonm888:	2-4	33.3%
indyjeffrey:	4-2	66.7%
jml24:	1-5	16.7%
johnzimbo:	1-5	16.7%
miplet:	5-1	83.3%
playyourcardsright:	3-1	75%
ridetheedge:	4-2	66.7%
soopoo:	6-0	100%
sparty10k:	4-2	66.7%
unjon:	6-0	100%
vegasbrent:	4-2	66.7%
wizard:	4-2	66.7%

Bumping this to the top!

Anyone who wasn't in last week is still invited in. The first week can count as your skip week.

Odds for this weekend's games will be put on this thread tomorrow.

Come one, come all!

Send questions my way, either in the thread or through PM.

Matt

The last 2 years, I've been keeping track of how the group's picks have done depending on the number of players making the pick.

The data the last 2 years have shown some predictive value:

1. Fade picks made by greater than 50% of the players. 9 - 6 (60%) over the last 2 years.
2. Tail picks made by greater than 33% of the players up to and including 50% of the players. 36 - 28 - 3 (56.3%) over the last 2 years.
3. Fade picks made by greater than 25% of the players up to and including 33% of the players. 43 - 58 - 4 (57.4%) over the last 2 years.

That's a total of 103 - 77 - 6 (57.2%) over the last 2 years. About 5 picks a week on average.

For this year, the number of players would be as follows for the groups above:

1. 8 or more players on a pick: FADE
2. 4 - 5 players on a pick: TAIL
3. 6 - 7 players on a pick: FADE

For Week 1, this didn't fare well, but here are the numbers:

1. 0 - 1 (lost by 1/2 point)
2. 1 - 5 (1 loss by 1.2 point)
3. 0 - 1

Total: 1 - 7. Yuck.

It's early and the number of players this year is the lowest of the 3 years of my data.

I'll try to update when I have time, but you can use the numbers above at least as a starting point for picks outside this contest.

Brent

Week 2 lines:

Deadline, 10 am EDT (NO exceptions)

Please follow the requested format for picks (see page 1)

Raiders 8 @ Ravens -8 O/U 41.5
Chargers -5 @ Panthers 5 O/U 39
Browns 3 @ Jaguars -3 O/U 41.5
Saints 6 @ Cowboys -6 O/U 47
Buccaneers 7.5 @ Lions -7.5 O/U 51.5
Colts -3 @ Packers 3 O/U 40.5
49ers -5 @ Vikings 5 O/U 46.5
Seahawks -3.5 @ Patriots 3.5 O/U 38.5
Giants 2 @ Commanders -2 O/U 43
Jets -4 @ Titans 4 O/U 41
Rams 1 @ Cardinals -1 O/U 48
Bengals 5.5 @ Chiefs -5.5 O/U 48
Steelers -2.5 @ Broncos 2.5 O/U 36.5
Bears 6.5 @ Texans -6.5 O/U 45.5
Falcons 6.5 @ Eagles -6.5 O/U 47

Line change link https://miplet.net/newnfl/diff.php?week=2&day=12&month=9&year=2024&hour=15

WEEK 2 PICKS

We have one new entrant, so we are closed out... 16 total entries. New entry used skip week for week 1.
Better job on the formatting... Those grading, if you see errors, let me know and I will try to fix what I can before I post. Following the formatting is very important everyone. Makes our jobs easier when compiling and scoring the picks.

Since there are no consolation prizes this year, skipping a second week results in an 0-5 week. You are not eliminated from contention.

Thanks,
Matt


PlayYourCardsRight:
Ravens -8
Lions -7.5
Commanders -2 CONFIDENCE
Titans 4
Eagles -6.5

unJon:
Commanders -2
Chiefs -5.5
Steelers -2.5
Bears 6.5
Eagles -6.5 – confidence

FourFiveFace:
Raiders +8
Buccaneers +7.5
Vikings +5
Rams +1-Confidence
Steelers -2.5

miplet:
Packers 3
Vikings 5
Giants 2
Chiefs -5.5
Falcons 6.5-confidence

Genwyzguy:
Jaguars -3
Cowboys -6
Buccaneers 7.5 Confidence
Patriots 3.5
Rams OVER 48

Sparty10k:
Ravens -8 confidence
Chargers -5
Buccaneers +7.5
Chiefs-5.5
Eagles-6.5

RideTheEdge:
Cowboys UNDER 47
Packers +3
Patriots +3.5 - Confidence
Chiefs -5.5
Steelers -2.5

Avianrandy:
Cowboys -6 Confidence
Steelers -2.5
Eagles -6.5
Jets -4
Ravens -8

Johnzimbo:
Cowboys -6
Panthers under 39
Giants under 43 confidence
Patriots under 38.5
Bengals +5.5

jml24:
Panthers 5
Buccaneers 7.5
Patriots 3.5
Titans 4
Broncos 2.5-Confidence

Qfortwayne:
Jaguars -3
Texans -6.5
Jets -4
Cowboys -6
Ravens -8 confidence

Gordonm888:
Raiders 8
Chargers Under 39
Packers 3
Titans 4 Confidence
Steelers -2.5

Vegasbrent:
Ravens -8
Chargers -5-confidence
Cowboys -6
Rams +1
Broncos 2.5

SOOPOO:
Buccaneers +7.5 Confidence
Seahawks -3.5
Steelers -2.5
Falcons + 6.5
Commanders -2

Wizard:
Raiders 8 CONFIDENCE
Browns 3
Saints 6
Buccaneers 7.5
Giants 2

SKIP WEEK:
Week 1: Qfortwayne
Week 2: IndyJeffrey

Ok here is the pick summary. Formatting much better this week. Only thing I say was genwyzgy spelled name wrong. Easy to catch.

Game	Away	Home	Over	Under
Raiders 8 @ Ravens -8 O/U 41.5	4	7	0	0
Chargers -5 @ Panthers 5 O/U 39	3	1	0	2
Browns 3 @ Jaguars -3 O/U 41.5	1	2	0	0
Saints 6 @ Cowboys -6 O/U 47	1	6	0	1
Buccaneers 7.5 @ Lions -7.5 O/U 51.5	8	1	0	0
Colts -3 @ Packers 3 O/U 40.5	0	3	0	0
49Ers -5 @ Vikings 5 O/U 46.5	0	2	0	0
Seahawks -3.5 @ Patriots 3.5 O/U 38.5	1	4	0	1
Giants 2 @ Commanders -2 O/U 43	2	4	0	2
Jets -4 @ Titans 4 O/U 41	2	4	0	0
Rams 1 @ Cardinals -1 O/U 48	3	0	1	0
Bengals 5.5 @ Chiefs -5.5 O/U 48	1	4	0	0
Steelers -2.5 @ Broncos 2.5 O/U 36.5	6	3	0	0
Bears 6.5 @ Texans -6.5 O/U 45.5	1	1	0	0
Falcons 6.5 @ Eagles -6.5 O/U 47	3	5	0	0

I sucked last week and am sucking this week

And no prize for sucking!

UNOFFICIAL RESULTS BEFORE MONDAY NIGHT GAME (I made one pass through, so there could be mistakes)... The official results will be posted after MNF.

Thanks,
Matt


PlayYourCardsRight:
x-Ravens -8
x-Lions -7.5
Commanders -2 CONFIDENCE
x-Titans 4
Eagles -6.5

unJon:
Commanders -2
x-Chiefs -5.5
Steelers -2.5
Bears 6.5
Eagles -6.5 – confidence

FourFiveFace:
Raiders +8
Buccaneers +7.5
Vikings +5
x-Rams +1-Confidence
Steelers -2.5

miplet:
x-Packers 3
Vikings 5
x-Giants 2
x-Chiefs -5.5
Falcons 6.5-confidence

Genwyzguy:
x-Jaguars -3
x-Cowboys -6
Buccaneers 7.5 Confidence
Patriots 3.5
Rams OVER 48

Sparty10k:
x-Ravens -8 confidence
Chargers -5
Buccaneers +7.5
x-Chiefs-5.5
Eagles-6.5

RideTheEdge:
x-Cowboys UNDER 47
Packers +3
Patriots +3.5 - Confidence
x-Chiefs -5.5
Steelers -2.5

Avianrandy:
x-Cowboys -6 Confidence
Steelers -2.5
Eagles -6.5
Jets -4
x-Ravens -8

Johnzimbo:
x-Cowboys -6
Panthers under 39
Giants under 43 confidence
x-Patriots under 38.5
Bengals +5.5

jml24:
x-Panthers 5
Buccaneers 7.5
Patriots 3.5
x-Titans 4
x-Broncos 2.5-Confidence

Qfortwayne:
x-Jaguars -3
x-Texans -6.5
Jets -4
x-Cowboys -6
x-Ravens -8 confidence

Gordonm888:
Raiders 8
Chargers Under 39
Packers 3
x-Titans 4 Confidence
Steelers -2.5

Vegasbrent:
x-Ravens -8
Chargers -5-confidence
x-Cowboys -6
x-Rams +1
x-Broncos 2.5

SOOPOO:
Buccaneers +7.5 Confidence
x-Seahawks -3.5
Steelers -2.5
Falcons + 6.5
Commanders -2

Wizard:
Raiders 8 CONFIDENCE
Browns 3
Saints 6
Buccaneers 7.5
x-Giants 2

Here is what the spreadsheet is spitting out going into last game. Gordon, did you ever get a chance to set up as wouldn’t mind another set of eyes.

Player	Week 2 Record	Win%
avianrandy:	2-3	40%
fourfiveface:	4-2	66.7%
genwyzgy:	4-2	66.7%
gordonm888:	4-2	66.7%
indyjeffrey:	0-0	0%
jml24:	2-4	33.3%
johnzimbo:	4-2	66.7%
miplet:	2-2	50%
playyourcardsright:	2-3	40%
ridetheedge:	4-2	66.7%
qfortwayne:	1-5	16.7%
soopoo:	4-1	80%
sparty10k:	2-3	40%
unjon:	3-1	75%
vegasbrent:	2-4	33.3%
wizard:	5-1	83.3%

Here are the results in week 2. No one perfect.

Player	Week 2 Record	Win%
avianrandy:	2-4	33.3%
fourfiveface:	4-2	66.7%
genwyzgy:	4-2	66.7%
gordonm888:	4-2	66.7%
indyjeffrey:	0-0	0%
jml24:	2-4	33.3%
johnzimbo:	4-2	66.7%
miplet:	4-2	66.7%
playyourcardsright:	2-4	33.3%
ridetheedge:	4-2	66.7%
qfortwayne:	1-5	16.7%
soopoo:	5-1	83.3%
sparty10k:	2-4	33.3%
unjon:	3-3	50%
vegasbrent:	2-4	33.3%
wizard:	5-1	83.3%

And cumulative through week 2, SOOPOO starting strong.

Player	Record	Win %
soopoo:	11-1	91.7%
wizard:	9-3	75%
miplet:	9-3	75%
unjon:	9-3	75%
genwyzgy:	8-4	66.7%
ridetheedge:	8-4	66.7%
indyjeffrey:	4-2	66.7%
fourfiveface:	7-4	63.6%
avianrandy:	6-5	54.5%
gordonm888:	6-6	50%
playyourcardsright:	5-5	50%
sparty10k:	6-6	50%
vegasbrent:	6-6	50%
johnzimbo:	5-7	41.7%
jml24:	3-9	25%
qfortwayne:	1-5	16.7%

The last 2 years, I've been keeping track of how the group's picks have done depending on the number of players making the pick.

The data the last 2 years have shown some predictive value:

1. Fade picks made by greater than 50% of the players. 9 - 6 (60%) over the last 2 years.
2. Tail picks made by greater than 33% of the players up to and including 50% of the players. 36 - 28 - 3 (56.3%) over the last 2 years.
3. Fade picks made by greater than 25% of the players up to and including 33% of the players. 43 - 58 - 4 (57.4%) over the last 2 years.

That's a total of 103 - 77 - 6 (57.2%) over the last 2 years. About 5 picks a week on average.

For this year, the number of players would be as follows for the groups above:
Note: these numbers will change next week as we have 16 players now.
I kept these numbers for Weeks 1 and 2 because of skip weeks and I'm lazy.

1. 8 or more players on a pick: FADE
2. 4 - 5 players on a pick: FADE
3. 6 - 7 players on a pick: TAIL

For Week 2, here are the numbers:
1, 0 - 1
2. 4 - 1
3. 1 - 1

Week 2 Total: 5 - 3

For Week 1, here are the numbers:
1. 0 - 1 (lost by 1/2 point)
2. 1 - 5 (1 loss by 1/2 point)
3. 0 - 1

Week 1 Total: 1 - 7.

Season Totals:
1. 0 - 2
2. 5 - 6
3. 1 - 2

Season Total: 6 - 10

Brent