2024 WOV Picks Game Discussion Thread
October 1st, 2024 at 8:50:43 AM
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The last 2 years, I've been keeping track of how the group's picks have done depending on the number of players making the pick.
The data the last 2 years have shown some predictive value:
1. Fade picks made by greater than 50% of the players. 9 - 6 (60%) over the last 2 years.
2. Tail picks made by greater than 33% of the players up to and including 50% of the players. 36 - 28 - 3 (56.3%) over the last 2 years.
3. Fade picks made by greater than 25% of the players up to and including 33% of the players. 43 - 58 - 4 (57.4%) over the last 2 years.
That's a total of 103 - 77 - 6 (57.2%) over the last 2 years. About 5 picks a week on average.
For this year, the number of players would be as follows for the groups above:
Note: these numbers will change next week as we have 16 players now.
I kept these numbers for Weeks 1 - 4 because of skip weeks and I'm lazy.
1. 8 or more players on a pick: FADE
2. 4 - 5 players on a pick: FADE
3. 6 - 7 players on a pick: TAIL
For Week 4, here are the numbers:
1. 0 - 0
2. 4 - 2
3. 0 - 1
Week 4 Total: 4 - 3
For Week 3, here are the numbers:
1. 1 - 0
2. 3 - 3
3. 0 - 0
Week 3 Total: 4 - 3
For Week 2, here are the numbers:
1, 0 - 1
2. 4 - 1
3. 1 - 1
Week 2 Total: 5 - 3
For Week 1, here are the numbers:
1. 0 - 1 (lost by 1/2 point)
2. 1 - 5 (1 loss by 1/2 point)
3. 0 - 1
Week 1 Total: 1 - 7.
Season Totals:
1. 1 - 2
2. 12 - 11
3. 1 - 3
Season Total: 14 - 16
Vegasbrent
The data the last 2 years have shown some predictive value:
1. Fade picks made by greater than 50% of the players. 9 - 6 (60%) over the last 2 years.
2. Tail picks made by greater than 33% of the players up to and including 50% of the players. 36 - 28 - 3 (56.3%) over the last 2 years.
3. Fade picks made by greater than 25% of the players up to and including 33% of the players. 43 - 58 - 4 (57.4%) over the last 2 years.
That's a total of 103 - 77 - 6 (57.2%) over the last 2 years. About 5 picks a week on average.
For this year, the number of players would be as follows for the groups above:
Note: these numbers will change next week as we have 16 players now.
I kept these numbers for Weeks 1 - 4 because of skip weeks and I'm lazy.
1. 8 or more players on a pick: FADE
2. 4 - 5 players on a pick: FADE
3. 6 - 7 players on a pick: TAIL
For Week 4, here are the numbers:
1. 0 - 0
2. 4 - 2
3. 0 - 1
Week 4 Total: 4 - 3
For Week 3, here are the numbers:
1. 1 - 0
2. 3 - 3
3. 0 - 0
Week 3 Total: 4 - 3
For Week 2, here are the numbers:
1, 0 - 1
2. 4 - 1
3. 1 - 1
Week 2 Total: 5 - 3
For Week 1, here are the numbers:
1. 0 - 1 (lost by 1/2 point)
2. 1 - 5 (1 loss by 1/2 point)
3. 0 - 1
Week 1 Total: 1 - 7.
Season Totals:
1. 1 - 2
2. 12 - 11
3. 1 - 3
Season Total: 14 - 16
Vegasbrent
It's not a sin if you don't win, but it's a tragedy if you don't try.
Be happy and have fun!
October 3rd, 2024 at 1:08:02 PM
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WEEK 4 RESULTS
Will be posted tonight after I get home from work.
WEEK 5 LINES
DEADLINE: 10 AM EDT Sunday morning. NOTE!!!! If you pick the Jets-Vikings (London game), your picks must have been submitted before 6 AM EDT on Sunday. No changes will be permitted once submitted if your picks include the London game.
Jets 2.5 @ Vikings -2.5 O/U 40
Ravens -2 @ Bengals 2 O/U 49
Bills -1 @ Texans 1 O/U 47.5
Panthers 3.5 @ Bears -3.5 O/U 41
Browns 3.5 @ Commanders -3.5 O/U 43.5
Colts 2.5 @ Jaguars -2.5 O/U 46
Dolphins 1 @ Patriots -1 O/U 36.5
Cardinals 7 @ 49ers -7 O/U 50
Raiders 2.5 @ Broncos -2.5 O/U 35.5
Packers -3 @ Rams 3 O/U 49
Giants 6.5 @ Seahawks -6.5 O/U 43.5
Cowboys 2.5 @ Steelers -2.5 O/U 44
Saints 5.5 @ Chiefs -5.5 O/U 43
Will be posted tonight after I get home from work.
WEEK 5 LINES
DEADLINE: 10 AM EDT Sunday morning. NOTE!!!! If you pick the Jets-Vikings (London game), your picks must have been submitted before 6 AM EDT on Sunday. No changes will be permitted once submitted if your picks include the London game.
Jets 2.5 @ Vikings -2.5 O/U 40
Ravens -2 @ Bengals 2 O/U 49
Bills -1 @ Texans 1 O/U 47.5
Panthers 3.5 @ Bears -3.5 O/U 41
Browns 3.5 @ Commanders -3.5 O/U 43.5
Colts 2.5 @ Jaguars -2.5 O/U 46
Dolphins 1 @ Patriots -1 O/U 36.5
Cardinals 7 @ 49ers -7 O/U 50
Raiders 2.5 @ Broncos -2.5 O/U 35.5
Packers -3 @ Rams 3 O/U 49
Giants 6.5 @ Seahawks -6.5 O/U 43.5
Cowboys 2.5 @ Steelers -2.5 O/U 44
Saints 5.5 @ Chiefs -5.5 O/U 43
October 3rd, 2024 at 2:38:30 PM
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Line change link https://miplet.net/newnfl/diff.php?week=5&day=3&month=10&year=2024&hour=12
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
October 3rd, 2024 at 6:00:24 PM
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I can do week 4 results tonight.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
October 3rd, 2024 at 6:26:17 PM
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Here are the delayed week 4 results. Go me . . .
And here are the aggregate results.
| Player | Week 4 Record | Win% |
|---|---|---|
| avianrandy: | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| fourfiveface: | 5-1 | 83.3% |
| genwyzgy: | 0-5 | 0% |
| gordonm888: | 5-1 | 83.3% |
| indyjeffrey: | 4-1 | 80% |
| jml24: | 0-0 | 0% |
| johnzimbo: | 1-5 | 16.7% |
| miplet: | 2-4 | 33.3% |
| playyourcardsright: | 3-1 | 75% |
| ridetheedge: | 1-5 | 16.7% |
| qfortwayne: | 0-5 | 0% |
| soopoo: | 2-4 | 33.3% |
| sparty10k: | 3-3 | 50% |
| unjon: | 0-6 | 0% |
| vegasbrent: | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| wizard: | 4-1 | 80% |
And here are the aggregate results.
| Player | Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| soopoo: | 18-6 | 75% |
| playyourcardsright: | 14-6 | 70% |
| wizard: | 16-7 | 69.6% |
| fourfiveface: | 15-8 | 65.2% |
| indyjeffrey: | 11-6 | 64.7% |
| vegasbrent: | 15-9 | 62.5% |
| avianrandy: | 14-9 | 60.9% |
| gordonm888: | 14-10 | 58.3% |
| miplet: | 14-10 | 58.3% |
| sparty10k: | 12-12 | 50% |
| genwyzgy: | 11-12 | 47.8% |
| unjon: | 11-12 | 47.8% |
| ridetheedge: | 11-13 | 45.8% |
| johnzimbo: | 10-14 | 41.7% |
| jml24: | 4-14 | 22.2% |
| qfortwayne: | 1-15 | 6.3% |
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
October 4th, 2024 at 10:10:36 AM
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Unjon,
Thank you very much.
Matt
Thank you very much.
Matt
October 4th, 2024 at 2:40:09 PM
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Cheeto the Wonderchimp is not happy with y'all:Quote: unJon
...<SNIP>...
And here are the aggregate results.
Player Record Win % soopoo: 18-6 75% playyourcardsright: 14-6 70% wizard: 16-7 69.6% fourfiveface: 15-8 65.2% indyjeffrey: 11-6 64.7% vegasbrent: 15-9 62.5% avianrandy: 14-9 60.9% gordonm888: 14-10 58.3% miplet: 14-10 58.3% sparty10k: 12-12 50% genwyzgy: 11-12 47.8% unjon: 11-12 47.8% ridetheedge: 11-13 45.8% johnzimbo: 10-14 41.7% jml24: 4-14 22.2% qfortwayne: 1-15 6.3%
link to original post
Won: 191
Lost: 162
= 54%
Try to suck more.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
October 5th, 2024 at 8:36:15 AM
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Quote: DrawingDeadCheeto the Wonderchimp is not happy with y'all:Quote: unJon
...<SNIP>...
And here are the aggregate results.
Player Record Win % soopoo: 18-6 75% playyourcardsright: 14-6 70% wizard: 16-7 69.6% fourfiveface: 15-8 65.2% indyjeffrey: 11-6 64.7% vegasbrent: 15-9 62.5% avianrandy: 14-9 60.9% gordonm888: 14-10 58.3% miplet: 14-10 58.3% sparty10k: 12-12 50% genwyzgy: 11-12 47.8% unjon: 11-12 47.8% ridetheedge: 11-13 45.8% johnzimbo: 10-14 41.7% jml24: 4-14 22.2% qfortwayne: 1-15 6.3%
link to original post
Won: 191
Lost: 162
= 54%
Try to suck more.
link to original post
I did my part last week!
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
October 6th, 2024 at 9:51:18 AM
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WEEK 5 PICKS
All submitted before this morning's early deadline
PlayYourCardsRight:
Vikings -2.5 CONFIDENCE
Bears -3.5
Commanders -3.5
Broncos -2.5
Packers -3
FourFiveFace:
Jets 2.5
Panthers 3.5
Browns 3.5
Seahawks -6.5
Saints 5.5 – Confidence
Genwyzgy:
Panthers 3.5
Commanders -3.5
49ers -7 Confidence
Packers -3
Seahawks -6.5
RideTheEdge:
Browns 3.5
Jaguars -2.5 -- Confidence
Dolphins UNDER
Broncos -2.5
Seahawks -6.5
Sparty10k:
Broncos -2.5
Packers -3 confidence
Seahawks-6.5
Steelers-2.5
Saints +5.5
Avianrandy:
Steelers -2.5
49ers -7
Jets +2.5
Dolphins +1 Confidence
Packers -3
Johnzimbo:
Steelers under 44
Ravens -2
Bills -1
Rams under 49 confidence
Broncos over 35.5
unJon:
Patriots UNDER 36.5 - confidence
Cardinals UNDER 50
Broncos -2.5
Saints OVER 43
Ravens -2
jml24:
Bengals 2
Texans 1
Browns 3.5
Rams 3
Seahawks -6.5-Confidence
Gordonm888
Vikings -2.5
Vikings Under 40
Ravens -2
Bills -1
Steelers -2.5
Vegasbrent:
Jets 2.5-confidence
Bengals 2
Texans 1
Browns 3.5
Raiders 2.5
IndyJeffrey:
Vikings -2.5
Commanders UNDER 43.5
Commanders -3.5 -CONFIDENCE
Raiders 2.5
Seahawks -6.5
Wizard:
Jets 2.5
Browns 3.5 -- confidence
Jaguars -2.5
Giants 6.5
Saints 5.5
SOOPOO:
Vikings +2.5
Jaguars -2.5
Broncos -2.5
Cowboys +2.5
Giants +6.5 Confidence
No Picks Received:
Miplet
QFortWayne *appears to have quit*
All submitted before this morning's early deadline
PlayYourCardsRight:
Vikings -2.5 CONFIDENCE
Bears -3.5
Commanders -3.5
Broncos -2.5
Packers -3
FourFiveFace:
Jets 2.5
Panthers 3.5
Browns 3.5
Seahawks -6.5
Saints 5.5 – Confidence
Genwyzgy:
Panthers 3.5
Commanders -3.5
49ers -7 Confidence
Packers -3
Seahawks -6.5
RideTheEdge:
Browns 3.5
Jaguars -2.5 -- Confidence
Dolphins UNDER
Broncos -2.5
Seahawks -6.5
Sparty10k:
Broncos -2.5
Packers -3 confidence
Seahawks-6.5
Steelers-2.5
Saints +5.5
Avianrandy:
Steelers -2.5
49ers -7
Jets +2.5
Dolphins +1 Confidence
Packers -3
Johnzimbo:
Steelers under 44
Ravens -2
Bills -1
Rams under 49 confidence
Broncos over 35.5
unJon:
Patriots UNDER 36.5 - confidence
Cardinals UNDER 50
Broncos -2.5
Saints OVER 43
Ravens -2
jml24:
Bengals 2
Texans 1
Browns 3.5
Rams 3
Seahawks -6.5-Confidence
Gordonm888
Vikings -2.5
Vikings Under 40
Ravens -2
Bills -1
Steelers -2.5
Vegasbrent:
Jets 2.5-confidence
Bengals 2
Texans 1
Browns 3.5
Raiders 2.5
IndyJeffrey:
Vikings -2.5
Commanders UNDER 43.5
Commanders -3.5 -CONFIDENCE
Raiders 2.5
Seahawks -6.5
Wizard:
Jets 2.5
Browns 3.5 -- confidence
Jaguars -2.5
Giants 6.5
Saints 5.5
SOOPOO:
Vikings +2.5
Jaguars -2.5
Broncos -2.5
Cowboys +2.5
Giants +6.5 Confidence
No Picks Received:
Miplet
QFortWayne *appears to have quit*
October 6th, 2024 at 10:56:24 AM
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Here is the pick summary:
| Game | Away | Home | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets 2.5 @ Vikings -2.5 O/U 40 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| Ravens -2 @ Bengals 2 O/U 49 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Bills -1 @ Texans 1 O/U 47.5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Panthers 3.5 @ Bears -3.5 O/U 41 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Browns 3.5 @ Commanders -3.5 O/U 43.5 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Colts 2.5 @ Jaguars -2.5 O/U 46 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Dolphins 1 @ Patriots -1 O/U 36.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Cardinals 7 @ 49Ers -7 O/U 50 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Raiders 2.5 @ Broncos -2.5 O/U 35.5 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Packers -3 @ Rams 3 O/U 49 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Giants 6.5 @ Seahawks -6.5 O/U 43.5 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Cowboys 2.5 @ Steelers -2.5 O/U 44 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Saints 5.5 @ Chiefs -5.5 O/U 43 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
October 6th, 2024 at 5:49:05 PM
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If Cowboys cover +2.5 I think I have another perfect week. I’m beginning to think maybe I’m actually good at this and not randomly lucky?
I’m going with randomly lucky…..
I’m going with randomly lucky…..
October 6th, 2024 at 6:01:30 PM
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I'm just as randomly lucky! At least this week, for the first time, I bet all of my picks individually. Nice little profit, because I don't make large bets!
