2024 Super Bowl

Quote: FinsRule

I’m not worried about the 3rd possession in overtime. I want to stop Mahomes (giving him only 3 downs per possession), or I want to know exactly what I need. And I don’t want them to know what they need.

It’s just the easiest decision.
link to original post

It’s not just 3rd possession if they both score the same amount. It’s 3rd possession if neither team scores. I’ve watched a lot of NFL football. Neither team scoring first time they get the ball is not uncommon.

I don’t know the exact number of drives they had, but until OT Chiefs had ZERO drives of over 40 yards for a TD, let alone 75 yards. It’s not a clear cut decision. I think I’d take the ball.

Quote: smoothgrh

A CBS announcer made a blackjack reference, saying "most of the time in Las Vegas, 19 wins" — was he correct???
link to original post

No

The Greg Special!

Quote: miplet

The Greg Special!
link to original post

Hi Miplet. Nice to see you come back!

Here is the full report of my $20 Super Bowl bets. As a reminder, I bet every bet that had the word "under" or "no" in the description. This was a total of 175 bets for $3500.

Number	Description	Odds	W/L	Win ($)
3030	Total points under 35.5	475	L	-20.00
3032	Total points under 40.5	240	L	-20.00
3034	Total points under 56.5	-320	W	6.25
3036	Total points under 63.5	-550	W	3.65
3038	Total points by 49'ers in game un 24.5	-120	W	16.65
3040	Total points by Chiefs un 24	-120	L	-20.00
3042	Total points in first half by 49'ers un 11.5	105	W	21.00
3044	Total points by Chiefs in first half un 10.5	-105	W	19.05
3048	Safety -- NO	-1200	W	1.65
3050	Overtime -- No	-1200	L	-20.00
3052	Successful two point converion -- NO	-320	W	6.25
3066	Three unanswered scores -- NO	145	L	-20.00
3068	Points scored in last two minutes of first half -- NO	280	L	-20.00
3072	Shortest TD of game under 1.5	-145	L	-20.00
3074	Longest TD of game under 39.5	-110	W	18.20
3084	Game decided by 3 points? -- NO	-475	L	-20.00
3086	Will team to score first win -- NO	150	W	30.00
3090	Will roughing the passer be called in game? -- NO	-240	W	8.35
3092	Defensive of special teams TD -- NO	-300	W	6.65
3100	Will last play of game be QB rush? -- NO	155	W	31.00
3102	Will both teams have lead in the first half -- NO	-155	W	12.90
3106	Team to score last wins -- NO	200	L	-20.00
3112	Total interceptions under 1.5	-125	W	16.00
3114	Total fumbles lost in game un 1.5	-240	L	-20.00
3116	Scoreless quarter -- No	-360	L	-20.00
3124	Missed extra point in game -- NO	-400	L	-20.00
3128	Total players to have pass completion un 2.5	-270	L	-20.00
3130	Total punts un 7.5	-155	L	-20.00
3132	Largest lead under 14.5 points	-150	W	13.35
3134	Total net yards by both teams un 715.5	-110	L	-20.00
3136	Total combined TD's in game un 5.5	-110	W	18.20
3138	Distance of first TD scored un 7.5	-110	L	-20.00
3140	Distance of last TD scored un 7.5	-110	W	18.20
3144	Score in first 5:30 of game -- No	-140	W	14.30
3146	Game tied after 0-0 -- NO	-105	L	-20.00
3148	Longest FG under 47.5	-105	L	-20.00
3150	Shortest FG under 27.5 yards	-110	W	18.20
3152	Both teams make 33+ yard FG -- NO	120	L	-20.00
3154	Under 3.5 field goals	-140	L	-20.00
3158	Distance of first FG made under 36.5	100	L	-20.00
3160	Under 118.5 total FG yards	-110	L	-20.00
3162	Distance of last FG made under 37.5	-110	W	18.20
3164	FG is first quarter -- No	100	W	20.00
3166	FG by either team in second quarter -- NO	240	L	-20.00
3168	FG by either team in third quarter -- NO	-110	L	-20.00
3170	FG by either team in fourth quarter -- NO	140	L	-20.00
3198	SF TD in first quarter -- NO	-120	W	16.65
3200	SF TD in second quarter -- NO	145	L	-20.00
3202	SF TD in third quarter -- NO	-120	W	16.65
3204	SF TD in fourth quarter -- NO	145	L	-20.00
3206	KC TD in first quarter -- NO	-140	W	14.30
3208	KC TD in second quarter -- NO	130	W	26.00
3210	KC TD in third quarter -- NO	-120	L	-20.00
3212	KC TD in fourth quarter -- NO	130	W	26.00
3214	SF scores in every quarter -- NO	-230	W	8.70
3216	KC scores in every quarter -- NO	-280	W	7.15
3218	SF score a rushing TD -- NO	245	W	49.00
3220	Will KC score a rushing TD in game -- NO	110	W	22.00
3222	Will 49'ers score a rushing TD in first half -- NO	115	W	23.00
3224	KC score rushing TD in first half -- NO	-220	W	9.10
3226	Total first downs by SF un 21.5	-115	L	-20.00
3228	Total first downs by KC un 21	-120	L	-20.00
3230	Total TD's by SF un 2.5	120	W	24.00
3232	Total TD's by KC un 2.5	100	W	20.00
3234	Net yards in game by SF un 366.5	-110	L	-20.00
3236	Net yards in game by KC un 361.5	-110	L	-20.00
3238	Rushing yards by SF un 129.5	-110	W	18.20
3240	Rushing yards by KC un 106.5	-110	L	-20.00
3242	Total sacks by SF defense un 2.5	-220	L	-20.00
3244	Total sacks by KC defense un 2.5	-130	W	15.40
3246	Num of 49'ers to have a rushing attempt under 4	110	L	-20.00
3248	Number of different Chiefs to have a rushing attempt un 4	-115	P	0.00
3250	Will 49'ers convert a 4th down (excludes penalties) -- NO	-105	L	-20.00
3252	Will KC convert a fourth down (excludes penalties) -- NO	125	L	-20.00
3254	Total 49'ers to have a reception under 6	100	L	-20.00
3256	Total 49'ers to have a reception under 7.5	100	L	-20.00
3262	Will Purdy throw an interception -- NO	120	W	24.00
3264	Will Mahomes throw an interception -- NO	-115	L	-20.00
3266	Total completions by Purdy un 20.5	100	L	-20.00
3268	Total completions by Mahomes un 25.5	-110	L	-20.00
3270	Total passing yards by Purdy un 244.5	-110	L	-20.00
3272	Gross passing yards by Mahomes un 263.5	-110	L	-20.00
3274	Total pass attempts by Purdy un 29.5	-105	L	-20.00
3276	Total pass attempts by Mahomes un 36.5	100	L	-20.00
3278	Longest completion by Purdy un 36.5	-110	W	18.20
3280	Longest completion by Mahomes un 36.5	-105	L	-20.00
3282	Total TD passes by Purdy un 1.5	100	W	20.00
3284	Total TD passes by Mahomes un 1.5	130	L	-20.00
3290	Will Purdy (SF) throw a 1st qtr TD pass -- NO	-270	W	7.40
3292	Will Purdy (SF) throw a 2nd qtr TD pass -- NO	-150	W	13.35
3294	Will Purdy (SF) throw a 3rd qtr TD pass -- NO	-240	W	8.35
3296	Will Purdy (SF) throw a 3rd qtr TD pass -- NO	-165	L	-20.00
3298	Will Mahomes (KC) throw a 1st qtr TD pass -- NO	-240	W	8.35
3300	Will Mahomes (KC) throw a 2nd qtr TD pass -- NO	-130	W	15.40
3302	Will Mahomes (KC) throw a 3rd qtr TD pass -- NO	-190	L	-20.00
3304	Will Mahomes (KC) throw a 4th qtr TD pass -- NO	-135	W	14.80
3306	Distance of first TD pass by Purdy un 9.5	130	L	-20.00
3308	Distance of first TD pass by P. Mahomes un 9.5	-125	L	-20.00
3310	Total rushing yards by B. Purdy (SF) un 11.5	-110	L	-20.00
3312	Total rushing yards by P. Mahommes (KC) un 25.5	-110	L	-20.00
3314	First rushing attempt by C. McCaffrey (SF) un 3.5	110	L	-20.00
3316	Longest rush by C. McCaffrey (SF) un 18.5	-110	W	18.20
3318	Total rushing attempts by C. McCaffrey (SF) un 19.5	-115	L	-20.00
3320	Total rushing yards by C McCaffrey (SF) un 94.5	-110	W	18.20
3322	Total receiving yards by C. McCaffrey (SF) un 35.5	-110	L	-20.00
3324	Total receptions by C McCaffrey (SF) un 4.5	110	L	-20.00
3326	Will C. McCaffrey (SF) score a TD in game -- NO	200	L	-20.00
3328	First rushing attempt by E. Mitchell (SF) un 2.5	-105	L	-20.00
3330	Longest rush by E. Mitchell (SF) un 3.5	-110	L	-20.00
3332	Total rushing attempts by E. Mitchell (SF) un 1.5	-115	L	-20.00
3334	Total rushing yards by E. Mitchell (SF) un 4.5	-120	L	-20.00
3338	Will E. Mitchell (SF) score a TD in game -- NO	-900	W	2.20
3340	First rushing attempt by I. Pachero (KC) un 3.5	-110	W	18.20
3342	Longest rush by I. Pacheco (KC) un 15.5	-110	W	18.20
3344	Total rushing attempts by I. Pacheco (KC) un 15.5	-110	L	-20.00
3346	Total rushing yards by I. Pacheco (KC) un 69.5	-110	W	18.20
3348	Total receptions by I Pacheco (KC) un 2.5	120	L	-20.00
3350	Total receiving yards by I. Pacheco (KC) un 16.5	-110	L	-20.00
3352	Will I. Pacheco (KC) score a TD in game -- NO	-105	W	19.05
3354	First rushing attempt by C. Edwards-Helaire un 13.5	-135	W	14.80
3356	Total receptions by C. Edwards-Helaire (KC) un 1.5	-240	W	8.35
3358	Total receiving yards by C. Edwards-Helarie un 4.5	-110	W	18.20
3360	Total rushing yards by C. Edwards-Helaire (KC) un 5.5	-110	W	18.20
3362	Will C. Edwards-Helaire (KC) score a TD in game -- NO	-800	W	2.50
3402	First reception by G. Kittle (SF) un 10.5	-120	W	16.65
3404	Total receptions by G. Kittle (SF) un 3.5	135	W	27.00
3406	Total receiving yards by G. Kittle (SF) un 51.5	-110	W	18.20
3408	Longest reception by G. Kittle (SF) un 21.5	-110	W	18.20
3410	Will G. Kittle (SF) score a TD in game -- NO	-190	W	10.55
3412	First reception by D. Samuel (SF) un 9.5	-110	L	-20.00
3414	Total receptions by D. Samuel (SF) un 4.5	125	W	25.00
3416	Total receiving yards by D. Samuel (SF) un 61.5	-110	W	18.20
3418	Longest reception by D. Samuel (SF) un 21.5	-110	W	18.20
3420	Will D. Samuel (SF) score a TD in game -- NO	-150	W	13.35
3422	First reception by B. Aiyuk (SF) un 12.5	-105	L	-20.00
3424	Total receptions by B. Aiyuk (SF) un 4.5	-150	W	13.35
3426	Total receiving yards by B. Aiyuk (SF) un 61.5	-110	W	18.20
3428	Longest reception by B. Aiyuk (SF) un 23.5	-110	W	18.20
3430	Will B. Aiyuk (SF) score a TD in game -- NO	-185	W	10.80
3444	Total receptions by J. Jennings (SF) un 1.5	-145	L	-20.00
3446	Total receiving yards by J. Jennings (SF) un 14.5	-110	L	-20.00
3448	Longest reception by J. Jennings (SF) un 12.5	-110	L	-20.00
3450	Will J. Jennings (SF) score a TD in game -- NO	-750	L	-20.00
3452	First reception by T. Kelce (KC) un 8.5	-110	W	18.20
3454	Total receptions by T. Kelce (KC) un 7.5	-160	L	-20.00
3456	Total receiving yards by T. Kelce (KC) un 71.5	-110	L	-20.00
3458	Longest reception by T. Kelce (KC) un 21.5	-110	L	-20.00
3460	Will T. Kelce score a TD in game -- NO	105	W	21.00
3462	First reception by R. Rice (KC) un 8.5	-110	W	18.20
3464	Total receptions by R. Rice (KC) un 6.5	-115	W	17.40
3466	Total receiving yards by R. Rice (KC) un 68.5	-110	W	18.20
3468	Longest reception by R. Rice (KC) un 20.5	-110	W	18.20
3470	Will R. Rice (KC) score a TD -- NO	-165	W	12.10
3472	Total receiving yards by J. Watson (KC) un 16.5	-110	L	-20.00
3474	Will J. Watson (KC) score a TD -- NO	-700	W	2.85
3476	Total receiving yards by N. Gray (KC) un 13.5	-110	L	-20.00
3478	Will N. Gray (KC) score a TD -- NO	-1000	W	2.00
3502	FG's by J. Moody (SF) un 1.5	-110	L	-20.00
3504	Total kicking points by J. Moody (SF) un 7.5	-135	L	-20.00
3506	Total FG's by Butker (KC) un 1.5	105	L	-20.00
3508	Total kicking points by H Butker (KC) un 7.5	-120	L	-20.00
3510	Total punts by M. Wishnowsky (SF) un 3.5	-120	L	-20.00
3512	Total punts by T. Townsend (KC) un 3.5	100	L	-20.00
3514	Longest punt by Wishnowsky (SF) under 57.5	-115	W	17.40
3516	Longest punt by T. Townsend (KC) under 56.5	100	L	-20.00
3522	Total solo & assisted tackels by D. Greenlaw (SF) un 7.5	100	W	20.00
3524	Total solo & assisted tackels by N. Bolton (KC) un 8.5	105	L	-20.00
3528	Total solo & assisted tackels by F. Warner (SF) un 8.5	-140	L	-20.00
3530	Total solo & assisted tackets by J. Reid (KC) un 5.5	125	L	-20.00
3532	Total tackles (solo + assisted) by J. Brown (SF) un 5.5	115	L	-20.00
3534	Total solo & assisted tackets by t. McDuffie(KC) un 4.5	-115	W	17.40
3536	Will T. McDuffie (KC) have an interception -- NO	-1000	W	2.00
3538	Will C. Ward (SF) have an intercetion in game? -- NO	-800	W	2.50
3540	Will M. Edwards have an interception in game? -- NO	-800	W	2.50
3542	Will L. Sneed have an intercetion in game? -- NO	-750	W	2.65

Total bet = $3,500
Total loss = $423.15
Percent loss = 12.09%

I absolutely blame overtime for my terrible results. Most of my bets were on things to not happen. During the main game there were 132 plays and 26 in overtime (source: Yahoo Sports). So, overtime extended the game by 19.7% more plays. That I lost only 12.09% is comforting. When I was watching the game and it went into overtime, I was expecting much worse of these bets.

Here are props from the Wynn.

Here are graded props from the South Point/Rampart.

Here are some best longshot winning bets, from the South Point/Rampart:

Overtime +650
Three-point margin of victory +500
Scoreless quarter +400
Exactly 7 field goals +3000
Player to score last touchdown -- field +1000
Player to score first KC touchdown -- Valdes +1200
SF total points = 22 +3500
KC total points = 25 + 4500

Not wanting to start a new thread, but isn’t it disingenuous for the media to be acting like a shooting at a parade in Kansas City resulted in a gunshot murder? The city averages over a half a murder per day.
If by some chance the Bills or Sabres win one of these during my lifetime NO WAY I go to any large scale celebratory parade.

In football news, the 49ers fired their DC. He had better stats in all major categories than his predecessor, DeMeco Ryans, who got a head coaching job as a direct result of his results in SF. I think had the ball not hit the SF guy in the foot resulting in basically giving KC the chance to win, Steve Wilkes would be the next ‘hot’ candidate for a HC job.

Quote: miplet

The Greg Special!
link to original post

It’s time forrrrr…

It was a mass shooting in Kansas City, Missouri with 22 shot and at least one killed, a radio DJ. Half of those shot were children. There were a million people there, what could go wrong with 800+ police officers out there?
Some movie I watched last night had a line that said there are more guns in America than automobiles, and that was over 10 years ago. Of course the mafia guy who said that murdered everybody he chased down over a drug deal gone bad.
There's been 49 mass shootings this year and it's only been one month and 2 weeks.

Please, let's not devolve into political controversy.

As far as I know, DT still exists, and there's about a 0.0% chance I'll suspend anyone over there.