Sports betting chatter
.Quote: SkinnyTonyThe variance on 4 coin flips is not horrible. You win almost a quarter of the time.
hunh____?
maybe I missed something or didn't correctly understand your point
from Google:
"AI Overview
You'll flip four heads in a row, on average, once every 16 coin flips. This is because each flip has a 50% (1/2) chance of being heads, so the probability of getting heads four times in a row is (1/2) * (1/2) * (1/2) * (1/2) = 1/16. "
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Quote: lilredrooster.Quote: SkinnyTonyThe variance on 4 coin flips is not horrible. You win almost a quarter of the time.
hunh____?
maybe I missed something or didn't correctly understand your point
from Google:
"AI Overview
You'll flip four heads in a row, on average, once every 16 coin flips. This is because each flip has a 50% (1/2) chance of being heads, so the probability of getting heads four times in a row is (1/2) * (1/2) * (1/2) * (1/2) = 1/16. "
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It’s a ghost parlay so 4-0 or 3-1 wins.
Quote: unJonQuote: lilredrooster.Quote: SkinnyTonyThe variance on 4 coin flips is not horrible. You win almost a quarter of the time.
hunh____?
maybe I missed something or didn't correctly understand your point
from Google:
"AI Overview
You'll flip four heads in a row, on average, once every 16 coin flips. This is because each flip has a 50% (1/2) chance of being heads, so the probability of getting heads four times in a row is (1/2) * (1/2) * (1/2) * (1/2) = 1/16. "
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It’s a ghost parlay so 4-0 or 3-1 wins.
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deleted
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Quote: lilredroosterQuote: unJonQuote: lilredrooster.Quote: SkinnyTonyThe variance on 4 coin flips is not horrible. You win almost a quarter of the time.
hunh____?
maybe I missed something or didn't correctly understand your point
from Google:
"AI Overview
You'll flip four heads in a row, on average, once every 16 coin flips. This is because each flip has a 50% (1/2) chance of being heads, so the probability of getting heads four times in a row is (1/2) * (1/2) * (1/2) * (1/2) = 1/16. "
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It’s a ghost parlay so 4-0 or 3-1 wins.
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"AI Overview
Probability Calculation
For three consecutive heads, the probabilities of each individual head are multiplied: \(\frac{1}{2}\times \frac{1}{2}\times \frac{1}{2}\). This calculation results in a probability of \(\frac{1}{8}\).
Final Answer
The odds of flipping three heads in a row are 1 in 8"
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That’s not the right question. Ask the chance of winning at least 3 of four coinflips.
Quote: unJonQuote: lilredroosterQuote: unJonQuote: lilredrooster.Quote: SkinnyTonyThe variance on 4 coin flips is not horrible. You win almost a quarter of the time.
hunh____?
maybe I missed something or didn't correctly understand your point
from Google:
"AI Overview
You'll flip four heads in a row, on average, once every 16 coin flips. This is because each flip has a 50% (1/2) chance of being heads, so the probability of getting heads four times in a row is (1/2) * (1/2) * (1/2) * (1/2) = 1/16. "
.
link to original post
It’s a ghost parlay so 4-0 or 3-1 wins.
link to original post
"AI Overview
Probability Calculation
For three consecutive heads, the probabilities of each individual head are multiplied: \(\frac{1}{2}\times \frac{1}{2}\times \frac{1}{2}\). This calculation results in a probability of \(\frac{1}{8}\).
Final Answer
The odds of flipping three heads in a row are 1 in 8"
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That’s not the right question. Ask the chance of winning at least 3 of four coinflips.
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right
I got it - finally - thanks
this is some kinna bonus bet - right -?
I think the books are giving up a large edge to the player who bets this way at -110 for all 4 picks - how much will it pay -? - I think if they were even money bets 8/1 - correct -? - nice
but I would guess they're limiting the amount of the bet
"The probability of an event is calculated as the ratio of the number of favorable outcomes to the total number of possible outcomes. Probability \(=\frac{\text{Number\ of\ favorable\ outcomes}}{\text{Total\ number\ of\ outcomes}}\). In this case, the probability of getting exactly \(3\) heads in \(4\) tosses is \(\frac{4}{16}=\frac{1}{4}\).
Final Answer
The chance of flipping heads in 3 out of 4 coins is 1 out of 4 or 0.25"
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Mets -1.5 -120 over Nationals
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And as a reminder, you only need a 3 leg parlay, not a 4 legger. I just added GB to a 3 legger.
Tony, since I picked a 4 legger this week, for fun, give me a 4 legger you would use to best take advantage of this offer.
By the way, I do not know how they handle a push. Ties in the NFL are rare, but not non existent.
Quote: SOOPOOTony, since I picked a 4 legger this week, for fun, give me a 4 legger you would use to best take advantage of this offer.
I thought I answered that. I said it would depend on my bankroll and how much I could bet on the parlay. This is because the edge and the variance both go up as the odds get longer. Also is it NFL only or college too? And do I have to bet sides and totals or can I bet derivatives and props? If it's all NFL sides and totals and bankroll is not a concern I would probably mix Detroit ML with three -110 bets that I liked, though I would have to check to see if I like any more underdogs since they are better legs for this parlay.
Unrelated but I don't want to make another post: I was 3-2 today.
Winners:
Miami -7.5 (this was my favorite bet and I bet more than usual on it, though it was a bit uncomfortable for longer than I would have liked)
Oklahoma -6.5 (backdoor cover with a safety baby!!)
FSU / Kent St Over 55.5. They almost hit it by halftime. (thank you DRich)
Loser:
Nebraska ML. I'm ok with this one
Boneheaded loser of the week (I'll be impressed if someone can top this):
Oregon St +32.5. The line was 34.5 but I sold a couple of pts. Oregon won by 34. I turned a winner into a loser. I also broke my cardinal rule and didn't create a huge middle when it was 7-7 at the end of the 1st quarter.
Quote: unJonQuote: SkinnyTonyQuote: unJonQuote: SkinnyTonyI heard something interesting on a podcast this week.
Every 4pt+ favorite has won outright so far this year. Only one 3.5pt favorite lost, and only one 3pt favorite lost.
This happened for most of last year (though not to this extreme) when there were some big upsets in the first 2-3 weeks and then after that the favorites and overs just steamrolled.
Is this just fluke or something significant? In other words, is there some change to the game that the models have not (yet) adjusted to?
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I have a feeling Seahawks are breaking that trend this week.
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Hey that's one of my teaser legs. They don't need to cover but they still need to win.
It's also my survivor league pick. Given the value of saving the Bills and Packers I thought the Seahawks were clearly the best choice
So... I disagree
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I’m guessing about 25% of any given pool agrees with you.
I’m no sharp. Just think NO has looked very competitive against better teams than Seattle, and Seahawks didn’t look as good as the final score in the Steeler game would indicate.
Best of luck in survivor though. I’m on Bucs and Falcons (breaking my no-road-team rule early this year).
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So that’s about as wrong as I could be about the Seahawks and Falcons.
Had LAST leg of a juicy parlay Rams +3.5.
Lost last leg of a pretty big soccer parlay when team up 4-2 gave up TWO goals in stoppage time.
Lost my stupid ghost bet because I added the ‘guaranteed’ Packer win.
I am still alive in both survivor pools.
And need the Lynx to win a big parlay that started with Fever/under.
Edit. Apparently that game is over. Cha Ching.
Chargers win but don’t cover. They have ‘Dicker the Kicker’. He is 68 out of 68 on FGs 43 yards or shorter. THAT is dependable!
Quote: unJon
So that’s about as wrong as I could be about the Seahawks and Falcons.
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lol yeah that was the opposite of competitive.
We got our big upset though. And honestly I felt better about the Packers than the Seahawks; I just figured that I would have plenty of chances to use GB later (I have them to win the super bowl) and this is probably the best valve to use Seattle all year. So I got kind of lucky there.
Quote: SOOPOOLucky I don’t do this for a living……
Had LAST leg of a juicy parlay Rams +3.5.
Lost last leg of a pretty big soccer parlay when team up 4-2 gave up TWO goals in stoppage time.
Lost my stupid ghost bet because I added the ‘guaranteed’ Packer win.
I am still alive in both survivor pools.
And need the Lynx to win a big parlay that started with Fever/under.
Edit. Apparently that game is over. Cha Ching.
Chargers win but don’t cover. They have ‘Dicker the Kicker’. He is 68 out of 68 on FGs 43 yards or shorter. THAT is dependable!
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Yeah the Packers killed my teasers. I was 3/4 so I lost 35% of my stake there (I round robined the 4 legs into 3 teamers at +160)
a pick for one of the Friday games:
UVA/FSU over 59.5
the totals for the last 2 FSU games were 80 and 76
UVA has put up 48, 35, 55 and 48 points in its last 4 games
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Quote: lilredrooster.
a pick for one of the Friday games:
UVA/FSU over 59.5
the totals for the last 2 FSU games were 80 and 76
UVA has put up 48, 35, 55 and 48 points in its last 4 games
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Thanks LilRed. Will start my boosted parlays with that pick.
Remember, picks like this for me tend to hit 49% of the time or so, but here goes…. I LOVE the Dolphins -2.5 over the Jets. The Jets just suck. Tyrod Taylor is below mediocre, and Justin Fields is not much better. The Dolphins looked like a real team in a losing effort to the best team in the league.
I have a bunch of profit boosts to use on the Ryder Cup. One bet type is ‘top point scorer’. It is complicated because you don’t know how many of the 5 possible matches any particular golfer will play. It is likely Scheffler and McIlroy will play all 5. And bottom tier golfers like Griffin and Hojgaard will likely only play 3.
But I checked the odds. They are WILDLY varied from site to site. Scheffler ranges from +275 to +475. Henley from +1100 to +2000. Etc…. I don’t think without boosts any of these are +EV, but I can’t be sure. I made one non boosted (thus likely -EV) bet. Sepp Straka to score at least 1.5 points. Hard to imagine he doesn’t get 3 starts, and 1.5 seems more likely than not.
18 earned runs!
Mariners should be -350, -400. They are only -200.
They finished a five team boosted parlay yesterday, I’ll try the same today!
IU/Iowa over 47.5
IU has been a big surprise crushing its opponents - it put up 56, 73 and 63 points in its last 3 games
Iowa has put up 34,16, 47 and 38 points in its first 4 games
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Quote: SOOPOOHere’s another bet that must be too good to be true. Mariners just clinched division. But have not clinched the first round bye yet. Their opponent is one of the worst teams in baseball history. And their starting pitcher…. Last 3 games a total of only 11 2/3 innings. Why? Because he gave up 19 hits, 7 walks, and.
18 earned runs!
Mariners should be -350, -400. They are only -200.
They finished a five team boosted parlay yesterday, I’ll try the same today!
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Plan worked. It was a rout.
My ghost parlay is ChargersML/ Ravens-2.5/Jaguars + 3.5.
I’ve been a chicken on RYDER CUP. Been taking the small free $$ by using boosts instead of the greater + EV available. I do have Straka to get 1.5 and he has 1 already. And my best bet at +450 or so was Rahm to be top scorer among the 12 ‘wildcard’ players. He’s perfect so far.
Quote: odiousgambitI've got a bet on the US and a bet on the Europeans, both paying better than even due to a boost bet on the Euros. There's a chance for a tie, which I think will mean a loss on both bets [one is worded in a way that makes me not sure]. The chances of a tie are low, though, so I think it is still +EV, just not a guaranteed win.
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Before the start tie was maybe 8% or so. Now with Europe routing USA much lower.
The bets that are called ‘to lift the trophy’ include a tie as a European win. My pre and intra tournament bets were these type. With the boosts I can’t lose. With the limits I’ll probably be making $40 or so. Whoopee!
I have a what ‘I think is a +EV bet’. BetMGM giving -110 on NRFI in the Rangers game tonight. Both pitchers have been really good recently. (It’s -130 on Caesar’s, as an example).
SOOPOO made bad bet. Took Lynx. Was unaware Collier might be injured. I guess that’s why I’m getting points instead of giving points. Lynx coach apparently went on a tirade f bombing the refs, and the LEAGUE!
Interesting …. I won a few dollars on a free pool on DK. It was on an AEW wrestling event. Answered questions like ‘will John Doe interfere in the match’ to ‘who will hit the first suplex’ to ‘will a table be used in the match’. I of course just guessed. But I have to think there are a non zero number of people who would know the answers to these questions with nearly 100% certainty. Let’s say you are an AEW choreographer…. are there legal penalties if you tell a relative that ‘you gotta watch the next event, Ralph is going through a table five times!’
Quote: lilredrooster.
IU/Iowa over 47.5
IU has been a big surprise crushing its opponents - it put up 56, 73 and 63 points in its last 3 games
Iowa has put up 34,16, 47 and 38 points in its first 4 games
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Not even close.
I was 0-2 yesterday.
Commanders +2.5 over Falcons
Quote: lilredrooster.
Commanders +2.5 over Falcons
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Falcons overMcLaurenless and Danielsless Commanders.
Today RIDICULOUS inefficiencies in Ryder Cup markets.
Matchups can be bet two ways. Either including the opportunity to bet on a tie, or if there is a tie the bet is voided. First one was a +120 on site A and the opponent -118 on site B. Then I found a +125/-125. I bet that also as it puts non boosted action through. Get some ‘points’ too.
Then found a +140/—125. Unfortunately I don’t have infinite money to bet on that one! I also boosted the +140! (For a portion).
So in a humiliating admission, I posted a week ago that I bet on Sep Straka to win 1.5 points. Except I didn’t make that bet. I bet on JJ Spaun to get 1.5 points. Talk about misremembering! Anyway, they both have 1point…. And are playing each other today! So I thought I’d be rooting for Straka, but it’s…. GO SPAUN!
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster.
Commanders +2.5 over Falcons
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Falcons overMcLaurenless and Danielsless Commanders.
nice call
I knew about the injuries but McLauren had done little all year and Mariota had played very well in his previous start and I thought him to be quality
Penix was horrible in their loss to the Panthers of 30-0 the prior week when they were favored
yesterday he was a superstar - could almost do no wrong - I was shocked at how great he was - I was predicting he would again play poorly
before yesterday he threw for only one TD in 3 games
but - no excuses - a loss is a loss
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Quote: lilredroosterQuote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster.
Commanders +2.5 over Falcons
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Falcons overMcLaurenless and Danielsless Commanders.
nice call
I knew about the injuries but McLauren had done little all year and Mariota had played very well in his previous start and I thought him to be quality
Penix was horrible in their loss to the Panthers of 30-0 the prior week when they were favored
yesterday he was a superstar - could almost do no wrong - I was shocked at how great he was - I was predicting he would again play poorly
before yesterday he threw for only one TD in 3 games
but - no excuses - a loss is a loss
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Funny thing I was preparing my ‘gloat post’ but realized I was just plain lucky. The Commanders lost because of weak D, not weak O. I was ‘right’ on a few games. Bills pretty much exactly. Friend asked for score prediction….. 31-20…. Game ended 31-19 due to 2pt conversion try.
My biggest ‘guaranteed’ win ended up being a ‘void’. Had both sides of DeChambeau/Fitzpatrick. Fitz up FIVE holes. Ends up a tie…..No action…. At least Spaun won for me.
Won a bunch of parlays last night. Had overs on a bunch of players. And Williams TD. Parsons basically non factor, with a ‘barely’ sack at the end.
Bills are in the unusual position of getting wins based on single great plays as opposed to being clearly better than opponent. They looked just a fraction better than the Saints yesterday. I’m loving Patriots +8.5 for Sunday night.
There was another one +190/-180. I bet it small but it might not even be worth it if you figure in interest lost! But for me they are both (at least to the site) random -EV bets which help cover all the clearly +EV boosted bets.
I only found this because I planned on making a very small -EV bet on ‘my team’. I want some computer genius to be able to automatically scour sportsbooks to find these.
Quote: SOOPOOFree money today. Team X to make playoffs on site A. +275. Team X to miss playoffs on site B. -195. Made bets. Ran out of money on site B. Deposited. Now just a few minutes later -220. Made bets. It’s now -230. Still free money but I’m done. I may have already hit an amount where someone ‘looks’ at my account.
There was another one +190/-180. I bet it small but it might not even be worth it if you figure in interest lost! But for me they are both (at least to the site) random -EV bets which help cover all the clearly +EV boosted bets.
I only found this because I planned on making a very small -EV bet on ‘my team’. I want some computer genius to be able to automatically scour sportsbooks to find these.
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What sport are we talking about?
There are definitely odds screens out there that you can use to find arbitrages. I'm not sure if they generally include futures. I think unabated includes props; you might want to start there. I've definitely arbitraged props before, even with nice middles.
Quote: SkinnyTonyQuote: SOOPOOFree money today. Team X to make playoffs on site A. +275. Team X to miss playoffs on site B. -195. Made bets. Ran out of money on site B. Deposited. Now just a few minutes later -220. Made bets. It’s now -230. Still free money but I’m done. I may have already hit an amount where someone ‘looks’ at my account.
There was another one +190/-180. I bet it small but it might not even be worth it if you figure in interest lost! But for me they are both (at least to the site) random -EV bets which help cover all the clearly +EV boosted bets.
I only found this because I planned on making a very small -EV bet on ‘my team’. I want some computer genius to be able to automatically scour sportsbooks to find these.
link to original post
What sport are we talking about?
There are definitely odds screens out there that you can use to find arbitrages. I'm not sure if they generally include futures. I think unabated includes props; you might want to start there. I've definitely arbitraged props before, even with nice middles.
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This happened to be NHL. I’m done betting it so here….
BetMGM has Sabres +275 to make playoffs
FanDuel has Sabres to miss playoffs at -230.
When I first bet it it was -195.
BetMGM lets me get + odds on Achane to outrush Hall.
And + odds on Chase to out receive Sutton.
In afternoon action, go Everton!
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: SkinnyTonyQuote: SOOPOOFree money today. Team X to make playoffs on site A. +275. Team X to miss playoffs on site B. -195. Made bets. Ran out of money on site B. Deposited. Now just a few minutes later -220. Made bets. It’s now -230. Still free money but I’m done. I may have already hit an amount where someone ‘looks’ at my account.
There was another one +190/-180. I bet it small but it might not even be worth it if you figure in interest lost! But for me they are both (at least to the site) random -EV bets which help cover all the clearly +EV boosted bets.
I only found this because I planned on making a very small -EV bet on ‘my team’. I want some computer genius to be able to automatically scour sportsbooks to find these.
link to original post
What sport are we talking about?
There are definitely odds screens out there that you can use to find arbitrages. I'm not sure if they generally include futures. I think unabated includes props; you might want to start there. I've definitely arbitraged props before, even with nice middles.
link to original post
This happened to be NHL. I’m done betting it so here….
BetMGM has Sabres +275 to make playoffs
FanDuel has Sabres to miss playoffs at -230.
When I first bet it it was -195.
BetMGM lets me get + odds on Achane to outrush Hall.
And + odds on Chase to out receive Sutton.
In afternoon action, go Everton!
link to original post
I took a quick peek and these are definitely out there. Here's an NFL one:
BetMGM has SF to miss the playoffs at +380. FanDuel has SF to miss the playoffs at -290, and bet365 has it at -300. Likely MGM is the "soft" line here, so you could just bet that. But to actually arbitrage it you are locking in $23 profit for every $457 bet. 5% over 3 months is not horrible but honestly not worth the hassle for me. Feel free to grab it if you want it. Generally I'll pile money into arbitrages that resolve quickly (like, player props) but not futures. In fact I almost never bet "real" money on futures; I usually pile bonus bets into them.
Quote: SkinnyTonyQuote: SOOPOOQuote: SkinnyTonyQuote: SOOPOOFree money today. Team X to make playoffs on site A. +275. Team X to miss playoffs on site B. -195. Made bets. Ran out of money on site B. Deposited. Now just a few minutes later -220. Made bets. It’s now -230. Still free money but I’m done. I may have already hit an amount where someone ‘looks’ at my account.
There was another one +190/-180. I bet it small but it might not even be worth it if you figure in interest lost! But for me they are both (at least to the site) random -EV bets which help cover all the clearly +EV boosted bets.
I only found this because I planned on making a very small -EV bet on ‘my team’. I want some computer genius to be able to automatically scour sportsbooks to find these.
link to original post
What sport are we talking about?
There are definitely odds screens out there that you can use to find arbitrages. I'm not sure if they generally include futures. I think unabated includes props; you might want to start there. I've definitely arbitraged props before, even with nice middles.
link to original post
This happened to be NHL. I’m done betting it so here….
BetMGM has Sabres +275 to make playoffs
FanDuel has Sabres to miss playoffs at -230.
When I first bet it it was -195.
BetMGM lets me get + odds on Achane to outrush Hall.
And + odds on Chase to out receive Sutton.
In afternoon action, go Everton!
link to original post
I took a quick peek and these are definitely out there. Here's an NFL one:
BetMGM has SF to miss the playoffs at +380. FanDuel has SF to miss the playoffs at -290, and bet365 has it at -300. Likely MGM is the "soft" line here, so you could just bet that. But to actually arbitrage it you are locking in $23 profit for every $457 bet. 5% over 3 months is not horrible but honestly not worth the hassle for me. Feel free to grab it if you want it. Generally I'll pile money into arbitrages that resolve quickly (like, player props) but not futures. In fact I almost never bet "real" money on futures; I usually pile bonus bets into them.
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Either you miss typed + or - or mistyped miss or make I think. It just doesn’t make sense what you wrote.
Anyway, I can’t even find on my BetMGM account any bets on making or missing NFL playoffs.
Edit. Found it.
BetMGM SF make playoffs. -300
SF miss playoffs. +240
FD. SF make playoffs. -290
SF miss playoffs. +225
My lines are nowhere close to what you posted.
Quote: SkinnyTony
I took a quick peek and these are definitely out there. Here's an NFL one:
BetMGM has SF to miss the playoffs at +380. FanDuel has SF to miss the playoffs at -290, and bet365 has it at -300. Likely MGM is the "soft" line here, so you could just bet that. But to actually arbitrage it you are locking in $23 profit for every $457 bet. 5% over 3 months is not horrible but honestly not worth the hassle for me. Feel free to grab it if you want it. Generally I'll pile money into arbitrages that resolve quickly (like, player props) but not futures. In fact I almost never bet "real" money on futures; I usually pile bonus bets into them.
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I don't see Yes/No props on teams making the playoffs on my BetMGM app - just who is going to win each division / conference / the Super Bowl.
For the 49ers missing the playoffs, William Hill has +230, and Stations has +220.
Quote: ThatDonGuyQuote: SkinnyTony
I took a quick peek and these are definitely out there. Here's an NFL one:
BetMGM has SF to miss the playoffs at +380. FanDuel has SF to miss the playoffs at -290, and bet365 has it at -300. Likely MGM is the "soft" line here, so you could just bet that. But to actually arbitrage it you are locking in $23 profit for every $457 bet. 5% over 3 months is not horrible but honestly not worth the hassle for me. Feel free to grab it if you want it. Generally I'll pile money into arbitrages that resolve quickly (like, player props) but not futures. In fact I almost never bet "real" money on futures; I usually pile bonus bets into them.
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I don't see Yes/No props on teams making the playoffs on my BetMGM app - just who is going to win each division / conference / the Super Bowl.
For the 49ers missing the playoffs, William Hill has +230, and Stations has +220.
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RE:BetMGM, It's under "team futures", not "futures".
+380 was likely a bad line, as I said. Unfortunately it's gone now, they have -300 / +240. When I posted it was -500 / +380. They probably got hit and moved it.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: SkinnyTonyQuote: SOOPOOQuote: SkinnyTonyQuote: SOOPOOFree money today. Team X to make playoffs on site A. +275. Team X to miss playoffs on site B. -195. Made bets. Ran out of money on site B. Deposited. Now just a few minutes later -220. Made bets. It’s now -230. Still free money but I’m done. I may have already hit an amount where someone ‘looks’ at my account.
There was another one +190/-180. I bet it small but it might not even be worth it if you figure in interest lost! But for me they are both (at least to the site) random -EV bets which help cover all the clearly +EV boosted bets.
I only found this because I planned on making a very small -EV bet on ‘my team’. I want some computer genius to be able to automatically scour sportsbooks to find these.
link to original post
What sport are we talking about?
There are definitely odds screens out there that you can use to find arbitrages. I'm not sure if they generally include futures. I think unabated includes props; you might want to start there. I've definitely arbitraged props before, even with nice middles.
link to original post
This happened to be NHL. I’m done betting it so here….
BetMGM has Sabres +275 to make playoffs
FanDuel has Sabres to miss playoffs at -230.
When I first bet it it was -195.
BetMGM lets me get + odds on Achane to outrush Hall.
And + odds on Chase to out receive Sutton.
In afternoon action, go Everton!
link to original post
I took a quick peek and these are definitely out there. Here's an NFL one:
BetMGM has SF to miss the playoffs at +380. FanDuel has SF to miss the playoffs at -290, and bet365 has it at -300. Likely MGM is the "soft" line here, so you could just bet that. But to actually arbitrage it you are locking in $23 profit for every $457 bet. 5% over 3 months is not horrible but honestly not worth the hassle for me. Feel free to grab it if you want it. Generally I'll pile money into arbitrages that resolve quickly (like, player props) but not futures. In fact I almost never bet "real" money on futures; I usually pile bonus bets into them.
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Either you miss typed + or - or mistyped miss or make I think. It just doesn’t make sense what you wrote.
Anyway, I can’t even find on my BetMGM account any bets on making or missing NFL playoffs.
Edit. Found it.
BetMGM SF make playoffs. -300
SF miss playoffs. +240
FD. SF make playoffs. -290
SF miss playoffs. +225
My lines are nowhere close to what you posted.
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I accidentally wrote "miss" instead of "make" for FD and b365. My point was at that time, you could have bet SF to miss the playoffs at +380 on mgm, and bet them to make the playoffs at -290 on FD or -300 on b365.
But yes they have since moved the line.
My larger point was I don't think it's actually that good of a bet to tie up your money for 3 months for a 5% return. It's not horrible (I mean, a 5% risk-free return in 3 months is actually a lot) but you can often find smaller arbitrages on props which turn out to be better because you only need to tie up your money for a few hours to a day. Unfortunately without an odds screen it's a lot of work to find them, and there is always some risk that by the time you make one bet, the 2nd one isn't available any more. Personally I've moved away from arbing for this reason. I was doing it quite a bit a couple of years ago. Eventually I decided it wasn't worth the work. It's like people who count cards with a $50 or $100 max bet. It's fun to generate comps or if you just really want to gamble and not lose long-term but at the end of the day if you actually want to make money you can do better bagging groceries or working at mcdonalds.
Quote: SkinnyTonyQuote: SOOPOOQuote: SkinnyTonyQuote: SOOPOOQuote: SkinnyTonyQuote: SOOPOOFree money today. Team X to make playoffs on site A. +275. Team X to miss playoffs on site B. -195. Made bets. Ran out of money on site B. Deposited. Now just a few minutes later -220. Made bets. It’s now -230. Still free money but I’m done. I may have already hit an amount where someone ‘looks’ at my account.
There was another one +190/-180. I bet it small but it might not even be worth it if you figure in interest lost! But for me they are both (at least to the site) random -EV bets which help cover all the clearly +EV boosted bets.
I only found this because I planned on making a very small -EV bet on ‘my team’. I want some computer genius to be able to automatically scour sportsbooks to find these.
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What sport are we talking about?
There are definitely odds screens out there that you can use to find arbitrages. I'm not sure if they generally include futures. I think unabated includes props; you might want to start there. I've definitely arbitraged props before, even with nice middles.
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This happened to be NHL. I’m done betting it so here….
BetMGM has Sabres +275 to make playoffs
FanDuel has Sabres to miss playoffs at -230.
When I first bet it it was -195.
BetMGM lets me get + odds on Achane to outrush Hall.
And + odds on Chase to out receive Sutton.
In afternoon action, go Everton!
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I took a quick peek and these are definitely out there. Here's an NFL one:
BetMGM has SF to miss the playoffs at +380. FanDuel has SF to miss the playoffs at -290, and bet365 has it at -300. Likely MGM is the "soft" line here, so you could just bet that. But to actually arbitrage it you are locking in $23 profit for every $457 bet. 5% over 3 months is not horrible but honestly not worth the hassle for me. Feel free to grab it if you want it. Generally I'll pile money into arbitrages that resolve quickly (like, player props) but not futures. In fact I almost never bet "real" money on futures; I usually pile bonus bets into them.
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Either you miss typed + or - or mistyped miss or make I think. It just doesn’t make sense what you wrote.
Anyway, I can’t even find on my BetMGM account any bets on making or missing NFL playoffs.
Edit. Found it.
BetMGM SF make playoffs. -300
SF miss playoffs. +240
FD. SF make playoffs. -290
SF miss playoffs. +225
My lines are nowhere close to what you posted.
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I accidentally wrote "miss" instead of "make" for FD and b365. My point was at that time, you could have bet SF to miss the playoffs at +380 on mgm, and bet them to make the playoffs at -290 on FD or -300 on b365.
But yes they have since moved the line.
My larger point was I don't think it's actually that good of a bet to tie up your money for 3 months for a 5% return. It's not horrible (I mean, a 5% risk-free return in 3 months is actually a lot) but you can often find smaller arbitrages on props which turn out to be better because you only need to tie up your money for a few hours to a day. Unfortunately without an odds screen it's a lot of work to find them, and there is always some risk that by the time you make one bet, the 2nd one isn't available any more. Personally I've moved away from arbing for this reason. I was doing it quite a bit a couple of years ago. Eventually I decided it wasn't worth the work. It's like people who count cards with a $50 or $100 max bet. It's fun to generate comps or if you just really want to gamble and not lose long-term but at the end of the day if you actually want to make money you can do better bagging groceries or working at mcdonalds.
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Understood. I have no money issues. If there were no risks or ‘complications’ I would put gobs of money away somewhere for 5% return in only 3 months.
You are kind of new here. I really do this more for the ‘I beat the sportsbooks’ than the actual money itself. Sometimes the boosted bets I’m posting about are literally only $10!
I can assure you if I didn’t enjoy this stuff I wouldn’t be doing it. By the way, I really like your perspective.
Quote: SOOPOOUnderstood. I have no money issues. If there were no risks or ‘complications’ I would put gobs of money away somewhere for 5% return in only 3 months.
You are kind of new here. I really do this more for the ‘I beat the sportsbooks’ than the actual money itself. Sometimes the boosted bets I’m posting about are literally only $10!
I can assure you if I didn’t enjoy this stuff I wouldn’t be doing it. By the way, I really like your perspective.
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Nothing I said was directed at you. It was more that I was explaining why I didn't make the bets on SF. I'm sorry if it came across as an attack or insult or anything -- that wasn't how it was intended at all. Sometimes tone is lost (or created!) in online communication.
I actually think you can make a lot of money arbing if you are committed to it and have the right tools (or are willing to build them yourself). I would focus on props rather than futures though, just so you can roll the money over repeatedly (a 0.5% gain every week is worth a lot more than a 5% gain over a season, although I don't know how long you will last at a book if you are crushing props)
I make a lot of $10 bets too (mostly because I get a lot of boosts that are capped at $10 bets and it's hard not to be +EV with a 50% profit boost, and it gives me something to cheer for even if I don't really care about the game otherwise). And I completely understand about the fun of winning even if the money is small. And if I have an extra $1000 or so at the end of the year, I'm not going to turn that down.
I'm currently working on a model to price 1st halves and some other stuff though. A few books get this very wrong IMO. If it works out I will put real money into it. I wonder if my boosts will have higher max bets if I start doing that (until they realize I'm winning, anyway). But, yeah, I wouldn't be doing it if I didn't enjoy it.
Quote: SkinnyTony[
I'm currently working on a model to price 1st halves and some other stuff though. A few books get this very wrong IMO. If it works out I will put real money into it. I wonder if my boosts will have higher max bets if I start doing that (until they realize I'm winning, anyway). But, yeah, I wouldn't be doing it if I didn't enjoy it.
I prefer looking at second halves because it gives the market a lot less time to forecast and people seem to be a lot more emotional about making second half bets as they seem to be chasing.
Quote: DRichQuote: SkinnyTony[
I'm currently working on a model to price 1st halves and some other stuff though. A few books get this very wrong IMO. If it works out I will put real money into it. I wonder if my boosts will have higher max bets if I start doing that (until they realize I'm winning, anyway). But, yeah, I wouldn't be doing it if I didn't enjoy it.
I prefer looking at second halves because it gives the market a lot less time to forecast and people seem to be a lot more emotional about making second half bets as they seem to be chasing.
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Interesting... it's not clear to me how to approach that market though. I have to think about it.
Giants +8 (teased from +2)
Cardinals -1.5 (teased from -7.5)
Bills -1.5 (teased from -7.5)
Pays +160
My favorite leg is the Bills. Giants are a road team but it's hard to see this not being a close game. The other two are home teams. Cardinals are -8.5 at some books so I'm teasing a good line there. Unfortunately this book only pays -130 on 2 teamers so if the Giants push it's not a great payout.
Quote: SkinnyTonyI just put in a teaser bet:
Giants +8 (teased from +2)
Cardinals -1.5 (teased from -7.5)
Bills -1.5 (teased from -7.5)
Pays +160
My favorite leg is the Bills. Giants are a road team but it's hard to see this not being a close game. The other two are home teams. Cardinals are -8.5 at some books so I'm teasing a good line there. Unfortunately this book only pays -130 on 2 teamers so if the Giants push it's not a great payout.
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Your teasers where you cross the key number of 3 are generally pretty good bets. I rarely make a teaser bet, I also rarely make a parlay bet. I am just happy to win one game at a time.
The best teasers that I ever saw were on hockey. This was probably 20 years ago when teasers first started getting popular. There was a sportsbook in Northern Nevada that did so well on their football teasers that they thought applying them to hockey would boost their action. Unforrunately for the casino they didn't really understand math and betting lines so when they applied them to hockey they used the traditional football paradigm. They used 6 point teasers in hockey and got killed in the few weeks they ran it. Can you imagine getting an extra 6 goals in hockey? Maybe the worst mistake ever made by a sportsbook.
Quote: DRichQuote: SkinnyTonyI just put in a teaser bet:
Giants +8 (teased from +2)
Cardinals -1.5 (teased from -7.5)
Bills -1.5 (teased from -7.5)
Pays +160
My favorite leg is the Bills. Giants are a road team but it's hard to see this not being a close game. The other two are home teams. Cardinals are -8.5 at some books so I'm teasing a good line there. Unfortunately this book only pays -130 on 2 teamers so if the Giants push it's not a great payout.
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Your teasers where you cross the key number of 3 are generally pretty good bets. I rarely make a teaser bet, I also rarely make a parlay bet. I am just happy to win one game at a time.
The best teasers that I ever saw were on hockey. This was probably 20 years ago when teasers first started getting popular. There was a sportsbook in Northern Nevada that did so well on their football teasers that they thought applying them to hockey would boost their action. Unforrunately for the casino they didn't really understand math and betting lines so when they applied them to hockey they used the traditional football paradigm. They used 6 point teasers in hockey and got killed in the few weeks they ran it. Can you imagine getting an extra 6 goals in hockey? Maybe the worst mistake ever made by a sportsbook.
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The key is crossing both 3 and 7. I won't play a teaser if it doesn't cross both of those. Stanford Wong talked about it in his book (which I didn't read, admittedly) and I believe sharp bettors were doing this for years before him as well. There are a few other rules too which I break sometimes if I like the game enough. The book will often charge you something like -370 or -400 if you want to buy this many points so getting a 3-teamer at +160 (which is -267 per leg) is a lot better than that. I have no idea how hard you can hit them before you get cut off, but these are definitely +EV. This might be why I don't get promos at betMGM any more.
I think there are occasional good opportunities on 10 point teasers as well but I have never really looked into those. It's something that I hear mentioned a lot but no one ever gives details. I'll probably crunch some numbers at some point and see what I can come up with.
lol 6 goal hockey teasers? That would be awesome.
The Googlebot says this is "How [Kalshi] Works
Event Contracts: Users purchase contracts for events they believe will or will not happen.
Market Pricing: The price of a "yes" contract reflects the market's belief in an event's likelihood.
Payout: If the predicted event occurs, "yes" contract holders receive a payout, while "no" contract holders lose their investment. "
this is different than betting evidently
you can google your own articles, but here is one, the title "Kalshi Same-Game Parlays Make $1,762 In Fees On First Day — While $7 Billion Wiped From DraftKings, Flutter Market Caps"
https://www.ingame.com/kalshi-sgp-draftkings-fanduel-shares/
Dodgers -1.5. Over 8. Betts/Freeman/Ohtani hit. I think it was +700 before boost.
I can also post a bunch of 4 leggers I got zero correct. That’s the idea!
Tony, maybe it’s ’the fan’ in me, but I have no confidence in the Bills injury riddled defense stopping the Pats. I’ll be betting Maye over rushing yards. I think he wants to be like Josh Allen and will try and show he is in Orchard Park Sunday night. Bills will be using FIFTH punter/FG kicker this year. In their 5th game!
Digging deeper, this seems to be betting yes or no on about anything happening, including sports, with a fee charged on bets at fair odds, and fair odds being based on consensus [amongst who exactly, I don't know]. In theory this would be cheaper sports gambling with, however, your only chance at +EV betting to be being better at setting odds than the consensus. Disclaimer: I could be wrong about all thisQuote: odiousgambitI don't really understand what's going on with this, but DK stock has gone down, climbing back up at the moment
The Googlebot says this is "How [Kalshi] Works
Event Contracts: Users purchase contracts for events they believe will or will not happen.
Market Pricing: The price of a "yes" contract reflects the market's belief in an event's likelihood.
Payout: If the predicted event occurs, "yes" contract holders receive a payout, while "no" contract holders lose their investment. "
this is different than betting evidently
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I can't make sense of the fee schedule since if P=1 then 1-P = 0, unless rounding up to one penny would be the fee, but here it is,
"fees = round up(0.07 x C x P x (1-P))
P = the price of a contract in dollars (50 cents is 0.5)
C = the number of contracts being traded
round up = rounds to the next cent"
Quote: odiousgambitDigging deeper, this seems to be betting yes or no on about anything happening, including sports, with a fee charged on bets at fair odds, and fair odds being based on consensus [amongst who exactly, I don't know].
It's a market. "Consensus" is amongst the market participants. If anyone feels the odds are not fair they can buy the side of the contract that they feel is a good deal.
there may be an edge betting underdogs .... or not ... this could be realized by too manyQuote: SkinnyTonyQuote: odiousgambitDigging deeper, this seems to be betting yes or no on about anything happening, including sports, with a fee charged on bets at fair odds, and fair odds being based on consensus [amongst who exactly, I don't know].
It's a market. "Consensus" is amongst the market participants. If anyone feels the odds are not fair they can buy the side of the contract that they feel is a good deal.
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Had one big correlated parlay that involved Dodgers and Cards in high scoring game. Lost. Only leg that lost was Freeman to get a hit. He hit a bullet line drive but it was ‘at em’. My ‘regular’ parlay of home teams hit. Guardians/Yanks/Dodgers -1.5. I’m going Guardians/Cubs/Yanks tonight.
Quote: odiousgambitthere may be an edge betting underdogs .... or not ... this could be realized by too manyQuote: SkinnyTonyQuote: odiousgambitDigging deeper, this seems to be betting yes or no on about anything happening, including sports, with a fee charged on bets at fair odds, and fair odds being based on consensus [amongst who exactly, I don't know].
It's a market. "Consensus" is amongst the market participants. If anyone feels the odds are not fair they can buy the side of the contract that they feel is a good deal.
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The market should be efficient, I think.
And also had to make $5 anytime TD bet on game. Always take Kyren Williams. It hit and paid around $9. But I get TWO HUNDRED TWENTY SIX $ in bonus bets through their promotion.
On another site had to make a TD bet. McCaffrey hit as well.
Also had a Tonges/Juscyzk TD parlay. Around 60-1! Tonges scored early, and Jusczyk actually had a run from the 1 yard line that came up short!!!! Oh well…
I like when fun and profitable meet….
Quote: SOOPOOSOOPOO is on a heater. My $100 parlay to get the ghost bet hit. 49ers+7.5/over45.5/Stafford over 200 passing yards. +335. Now I also have a markedly + EV ghost parlay at $50.
And also had to make $5 anytime TD bet on game. Always take Kyren Williams. It hit and paid around $9. But I get TWO HUNDRED TWENTY SIX $ in bonus bets through their promotion.
On another site had to make a TD bet. McCaffrey hit as well.
Also had a Tonges/Juscyzk TD parlay. Around 60-1! Tonges scored early, and Jusczyk actually had a run from the 1 yard line that came up short!!!! Oh well…
I like when fun and profitable meet….
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I think we are on the same site. I've hit 2 of those TD jackpot bonuses this year, but not for that much. I guess he had both first and last TD so you won both. I had Puka so the $5 bet won but no bonuses.
Quote: SkinnyTonyQuote: SOOPOOSOOPOO is on a heater. My $100 parlay to get the ghost bet hit. 49ers+7.5/over45.5/Stafford over 200 passing yards. +335. Now I also have a markedly + EV ghost parlay at $50.
And also had to make $5 anytime TD bet on game. Always take Kyren Williams. It hit and paid around $9. But I get TWO HUNDRED TWENTY SIX $ in bonus bets through their promotion.
On another site had to make a TD bet. McCaffrey hit as well.
Also had a Tonges/Juscyzk TD parlay. Around 60-1! Tonges scored early, and Jusczyk actually had a run from the 1 yard line that came up short!!!! Oh well…
I like when fun and profitable meet….
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I think we are on the same site. I've hit 2 of those TD jackpot bonuses this year, but not for that much. I guess he had both first and last TD so you won both. I had Puka so the $5 bet won but no bonuses.
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Tonges had 1st TD. I think the bonus is for ‘longest’ TD.
Just put in my (not a lot of thought into it!) Ghost parlay.
Browns over 35.5/Cowboys ML/Giants +7.5 ( alternate spread). Total is +324.
I now have to figure out 4 $50 and 1 $26 free bet. Like soccer ties at around +270. Or two leg parlays at around the same .
