Sports betting chatter
Quote: SkinnyTonyQuote: DRichJust placed a small bet on Michigan +5.5 against Oklahoma. I have not seen either team play yet, but the line just seems to big. This game should be lined at 3.
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I had a boosted Oklahoma "double result" (be ahead at halftime and win) bet and also (separate bet) I sold a point and bet Oklahoma -6.5 to use a 50% profit boost.
So, that more than paid for my Iowa/Iowa St. over debacle.
Lots of teams made it to 70+ pts today (and one made it to 69). I'm guessing that your overs when "total minus line < 10" bets did well.
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Good pick on Oklahoma. Bryce Underwood looked like a true Freshman this week.
I only bet two of the overs on the total-spread picks and fortunately they both won. As an Iowa graduate I follow them closely and I can't imagine betting them over on just about any game. I did have high hopes for Granowski but I am rethinking that now. I did have Iowa +3.5 for a small winner.
Overall, I had a decent weekend at 7-2.
Quote: AutomaticMonkeyThat's average pressure due to altitude. I'm talking about something like a low pressure front hitting midgame, and all of a sudden breaking balls don't break so much and get hit really hard. Or high pressure and now they are having trouble throwing them for strikes. That is a real physical effect and there is no way around it but to adjust your spin. They joked about it but Alan Shepard's golf balls did not hook or slice at all due to the lack of any atmosphere at all. That will apply in a dome too because there is no pressure seal.
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After over 30,000 games were examined, the only two stadiums where atmospheric pressure plays a factor are Coors Field and Seattle. Games played in high humidity in Seatle result in flyballs losing 15-20 feet so many flyballs stay in the park.
Wind speed has an effect, but wind velocity is much more critical.
Quote: SOOPOOI put in the ‘ghost parlay bet’. Only +518 if I win all legs. Had to be NFL so didn’t do ‘the plan’.
Commanders
Bengals
Cards
Broncos
and Ravens +1.5. Top 4 are moderate favorites and Ravens the usual -110. I will be rooting against Ravens no matter what the status of my bet is.
So all 4 favorites won. I win no matter what. Just of course more if Ravens cover. Can I put in for a Bills 1 point win?
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: SOOPOOI put in the ‘ghost parlay bet’. Only +518 if I win all legs. Had to be NFL so didn’t do ‘the plan’.
Commanders
Bengals
Cards
Broncos
and Ravens +1.5. Top 4 are moderate favorites and Ravens the usual -110. I will be rooting against Ravens no matter what the status of my bet is.
So all 4 favorites won. I win no matter what. Just of course more if Ravens cover. Can I put in for a Bills 1 point win?
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Congrats!! I am impressed that you went against the Bills, it is rare to find people betting against their local team. Unlike most people, I bet against my favorite teams at about the same rate that I bet on them. I value money much more than a personal rooting interest.
I won the lower tier , having one leg betting on the Lions to win.Quote: SOOPOOQuote: SOOPOOI put in the ‘ghost parlay bet’. Only +518 if I win all legs. Had to be NFL so didn’t do ‘the plan’.
Commanders
Bengals
Cards
Broncos
and Ravens +1.5. Top 4 are moderate favorites and Ravens the usual -110. I will be rooting against Ravens no matter what the status of my bet is.
So all 4 favorites won. I win no matter what. Just of course more if Ravens cover. Can I put in for a Bills 1 point win?
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One good thing about the bet was that it wasn't a same game parlay
Generally, though, I'm skeptical that forgiveness for one leg is +EV, and I'd decline to bet if it was same game parlay
good question for the Wizard , are these type bets +Ev?
I decline to bet either way if it's 'my' team.Quote: DRich
Congrats!! I am impressed that you went against the Bills, it is rare to find people betting against their local team. Unlike most people, I bet against my favorite teams at about the same rate that I bet on them. I value money much more than a personal rooting interest.
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If you bet on them to win, you can get disgusted with them, I've seen sad cases of people turning against their team because of betting
If you bet on them to lose, winning the bet isn't fun
And, obviously, you never know if your emotions are getting involved, making you make bad decisions
In the case of soopoo here, he was working the spread. That is a little different, I do things like that sometimes if not too involved emotionally
just realized you did 5 legs. Wow, why?Quote: SOOPOOQuote: SOOPOOI put in the ‘ghost parlay bet’. Only +518 if I win all legs. Had to be NFL so didn’t do ‘the plan’.
Commanders
Bengals
Cards
Broncos
and Ravens +1.5. Top 4 are moderate favorites and Ravens the usual -110. I will be rooting against Ravens no matter what the status of my bet is.
So all 4 favorites won. I win no matter what. Just of course more if Ravens cover. Can I put in for a Bills 1 point win?
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Quote: odiousgambitI decline to bet either way if it's 'my' team.
If you bet on them to win, you can get disgusted with them, I've seen sad cases of people turning against their team because of betting
If you bet on them to lose, winning the bet isn't fun
And, obviously, you never know if your emotions are getting involved, making you make bad decisions
In the case of soopoo here, he was working the spread. That is a little different, I do things like that sometimes if not too involved emotionally
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Many people agree with you but I think it is foolish. Most fans know their team much better than they know other teams. If you are going to bet on football, bet the games involving the teams you know best. Gambling isn't about having fun, it is about winning money. Take all of the emotion out and treat it no differently than you would a coin flip where you know more about the coin than the other person. I don't know that I have been emotional about a football game or a bet in over 20 years.
Makes sense but a fan, short for fanatic, *is* a fool. I was brought up to be a more disciplined person than would allow that, but I found out for myself later that is a lot of fun being a fan, and I think it's something to embrace. You should be silly about some things in my book, have some funQuote: DRichMany people agree with you but I think it is foolish. Most fans know their team much better than they know other teams. If you are going to bet on football, bet the games involving the teams you know best. Gambling isn't about having fun, it is about winning money. Take all of the emotion out and treat it no differently than you would a coin flip where you know more about the coin than the other person. I don't know that I have been emotional about a football game or a bet in over 20 years.
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PS I'll make exceptions if an offer involving a favorite team is just something I can't resist
Quote: odiousgambitI decline to bet either way if it's 'my' team.Quote: DRich
Congrats!! I am impressed that you went against the Bills, it is rare to find people betting against their local team. Unlike most people, I bet against my favorite teams at about the same rate that I bet on them. I value money much more than a personal rooting interest.
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If you bet on them to win, you can get disgusted with them, I've seen sad cases of people turning against their team because of betting
If you bet on them to lose, winning the bet isn't fun
And, obviously, you never know if your emotions are getting involved, making you make bad decisions
In the case of soopoo here, he was working the spread. That is a little different, I do things like that sometimes if not too involved emotionally
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Being a Giants fan is one reason why I never got into betting football. I won't bet against them, and as they were consistently among the worse teams in the NFL 1976-1982, I thought not betting against them put me at a handicap.
Quote: odiousgambitMakes sense but a fan, short for fanatic, *is* a fool. I was brought up to be a more disciplined person than would allow that, but I found out for myself later that is a lot of fun being a fan, and I think it's something to embrace. You should be silly about some things in my book, have some funQuote: DRichMany people agree with you but I think it is foolish. Most fans know their team much better than they know other teams. If you are going to bet on football, bet the games involving the teams you know best. Gambling isn't about having fun, it is about winning money. Take all of the emotion out and treat it no differently than you would a coin flip where you know more about the coin than the other person. I don't know that I have been emotional about a football game or a bet in over 20 years.
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PS I'll make exceptions if an offer involving a favorite team is just something I can't resist
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I understand fandom, it just doesn't correlate well with sports betting. If you are not going to bet on games where you have the most information, you should not be betting on sports at all. Be a fan, not a sports bettor.
Quote: DRichQuote: odiousgambitMakes sense but a fan, short for fanatic, *is* a fool. I was brought up to be a more disciplined person than would allow that, but I found out for myself later that is a lot of fun being a fan, and I think it's something to embrace. You should be silly about some things in my book, have some funQuote: DRichMany people agree with you but I think it is foolish. Most fans know their team much better than they know other teams. If you are going to bet on football, bet the games involving the teams you know best. Gambling isn't about having fun, it is about winning money. Take all of the emotion out and treat it no differently than you would a coin flip where you know more about the coin than the other person. I don't know that I have been emotional about a football game or a bet in over 20 years.
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PS I'll make exceptions if an offer involving a favorite team is just something I can't resist
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I understand fandom, it just doesn't correlate well with sports betting. If you are not going to bet on games where you have the most information, you should not be betting on sports at all. Be a fan, not a sports bettor.
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Exactly. There are hundreds of revenue streams out there, I'd rather bet on things I'm not emotionally attached to.
Quote: DRich
I understand fandom, it just doesn't correlate well with sports betting. If you are not going to bet on games where you have the most information, you should not be betting on sports at all. Be a fan, not a sports bettor.
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Ah, but the way these sports books are run, you don't need to outsmart the oddsmakers. You just need to be able to spot offers and know how to play them. I wouldn't last long trying to make money betting sports in the regular way.
Quote: odiousgambitQuote: DRich
I understand fandom, it just doesn't correlate well with sports betting. If you are not going to bet on games where you have the most information, you should not be betting on sports at all. Be a fan, not a sports bettor.
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Ah, but the way these sports books are run, you don't need to outsmart the oddsmakers. You just need to be able to spot offers and know how to play them. I wouldn't last long trying to make money betting sports in the regular way.
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Yes, but you should still try to use the promos on the best bets you can.
Sadly, Hard Rock sports book has now excluded me from all boosts and promos and I am very sad about it.
Quote: odiousgambitjust realized you did 5 legs. Wow, why?Quote: SOOPOOQuote: SOOPOOI put in the ‘ghost parlay bet’. Only +518 if I win all legs. Had to be NFL so didn’t do ‘the plan’.
Commanders
Bengals
Cards
Broncos
and Ravens +1.5. Top 4 are moderate favorites and Ravens the usual -110. I will be rooting against Ravens no matter what the status of my bet is.
So all 4 favorites won. I win no matter what. Just of course more if Ravens cover. Can I put in for a Bills 1 point win?
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No ‘good’ reason. I did like all 4 of the favorites a lot. For anyone questioning if this is +EV, it certainly is. Just the exact calculation and the ‘perfect’ way to exploit it is above my pay grade.
As for betting against ‘my team’, I can easily separate my bets from my ‘rooting’ interests. I actually had a few other parlays that were poised to hit ‘bigly’ but lost due to having Ravens moneyline as the last leg. I can promise you, I was happy those bets lost. One was pretty big…. Jackson over rushing yards, Jackson rushing TD, Cook over pass/rush, Allen over rush yards/ Ravens ML. I think it was around 25-1.
My ridiculous ‘good beat’ today was in soccer. Needed Italy to beat Israel. Actually was watching a bit and late in first half Israel was up 1-0. Check phone and with 3 minutes to go Italy up 4-2. Israel scores TWO goals in next 3 minutes…. But Italy wins it a minute into stoppage time. 5-4. Italy’s goalkeeper is considered one of the best in the world.
I got so many risk free bets/profit boosts tonight I think I win money on all possible results. More if Minnesota wins.
If I have kept up with your situation, this FL sportsbook had lousy boosts and promos due to having no competitionQuote: DRichQuote: odiousgambitQuote: DRich
I understand fandom, it just doesn't correlate well with sports betting. If you are not going to bet on games where you have the most information, you should not be betting on sports at all. Be a fan, not a sports bettor.
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Ah, but the way these sports books are run, you don't need to outsmart the oddsmakers. You just need to be able to spot offers and know how to play them. I wouldn't last long trying to make money betting sports in the regular way.
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Yes, but you should still try to use the promos on the best bets you can.
Sadly, Hard Rock sports book has now excluded me from all boosts and promos and I am very sad about it.
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If you were able to beat them with that situation in effect, my hat is off to you
The online sportsbooks that want to clip your wings love 4 leg parlays, which tells you something
Quote: odiousgambitIf I have kept up with your situation, this FL sportsbook had lousy boosts and promos due to having no competition
If you were able to beat them with that situation in effect, my hat is off to you
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Last year I was getting some promos but they were small and usually less than $50. In the last month I have zero boosts or promos. I still anticipate beating them on college football even without the free money. Of course, last year I did lose on college football but I hope that was an aberration.
Bills lost only DL who played well against Ravens. Oliver in walking boot. Even with him Bills gave up 40. Jets O was not their problem against Steelers. Always hard to bet against Josh Allen, but Jets +6.5/over 47 is the play. Feels like Bills 27, Jets 24.
Quote: unJonHere’s another DRich filter over: Iowa -35 over UMass with the total at 44
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I passed on that one just because I don't trust Iowa to score points. Their QB Granowski has not looked good the past two games.
Quote: DRichQuote: unJonHere’s another DRich filter over: Iowa -35 over UMass with the total at 44
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I passed on that one just because I don't trust Iowa to score points. Their QB Granowski has not looked good the past two games.
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Yeah I learned my lesson on that last week
Quote: unJonHere’s another DRich filter over: Iowa -35 over UMass with the total at 44
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Thank you. Put food on SOOPOO’s table. But not much. The extremely correlated parlay of Iowa pointspread/over only paid +150.
My ‘Ghost Parlay today is Bills/Cardinals/Vikings/Rams.
Need Liverpool win to finish pretty nice parlay.
Also got +EV (pretty sure?) on Man C/Man U draw at +420. They’ve both been mediocre so far this season.
Bills /Ravens was an NFL scorigami at 41-40.
Texas A& M 41. Notre Dame 40!
.
Quote: lilredroosterdeleted - my math was wrong - my bad -
.
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Your math was right. Two -110 bets parlay to 21/11 * 21/11 = 3.6446, ie, +264. $57 to win $150.74.
But I'm not sure it's relevant since in this case there is clear correlation between the favorite and the over.
I remember after online sportsbooks became prevalent in the US but before they introduced SGPs, you could parlay baseball run lines and totals at full odds on betMGM. Good times.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: unJonHere’s another DRich filter over: Iowa -35 over UMass with the total at 44
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Thank you. Put food on SOOPOO’s table. But not much. The extremely correlated parlay of Iowa pointspread/over only paid +150.
My ‘Ghost Parlay today is Bills/Cardinals/Vikings/Rams.
Need Liverpool win to finish pretty nice parlay.
Also got +EV (pretty sure?) on Man C/Man U draw at +420. They’ve both been mediocre so far this season.
Bills /Ravens was an NFL scorigami at 41-40.
Texas A& M 41. Notre Dame 40!
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Liverpool ridiculous luck to win! Penalty kick deep in stoppage time.
Man C wipes floor with Man U. Oh well.
Bills/Cards/Rams win. Vikes lose. So I win my 3 leg parlay. I like the way I’m picking these.
I’m in two (free entry for me) survivor pools. Both 2-0. I’m going with Bills in both next week. Dolphins don’t travel well to Orchard Park.
I also hit a nice middle yesterday -- not a real pre-game middle, but I was on Philly, with my bet split between money line and -1.5. When they went up 20-10 I hedged with KC +6.5 at +225 (which I think was a good bet regardless -- it was a hedge but at that price I would have made it even if i didn't have money on PHI).
KC immediately went 3 and out but stopped PHI and got a garbage time TD on their last possession and I hit my middle!
My Week 2 pick was New England over Miami.
My Week 1 Pick was Arizona Cardinals over Carolina Panthers.
So, now I can no longer Pick the Cardinals nor Patriots in subsequent weeks, but I still have the Ravens, Bills and Eagles as options.
Quote: gordonm888In the version of survivor/eliminator that I gamble on, you can only pick each team once as a winner in a given NFL season. So picking Baltimore in Week 2 as an obvious pick means that you can't pick Baltimore in subsequent weeks. The nightmare you want to avoid is getting to week 17 and having to pick the Jets over the Chiefs because you've already picked all strong NFL teams as winners in previous weeks.
My Week 2 pick was New England over Miami.
My Week 1 Pick was Arizona Cardinals over Carolina Panthers.
So, now I can no longer Pick the Cardinals nor Patriots in subsequent weeks, but I still have the Ravens, Bills and Eagles as options.
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Yeah I think it's the norm to not be able to use a team twice. But picking an underdog (even a small one) is just crazy. It doesn't matter which teams you have left of you lose in week 2 because you didn't get lucky on your 45% pick.
Having said that, I like:
GB -7.5 teased to -1.5
HOU +1.5 teased to +7.5
DEN +2.5 teased to +8.5
SEA -7.5 teased to -1.5
You might have trouble finding the GB line but it's out there (I actually found -7.5 -105, not that the juice matters, but still, that's a lot better than -8 -110 or -8.5 -105, which is what I'm seeing at other places).
But also the GB line is my favorite of the bunch; I would happily take it at -8.5 teased to -2.5.
I bet these as 4 combos of 3-teamers at +160, which is the best I could find at the online books I have access to. That's a better line than a 2-leg at -120, which is the best I could find for two legs.
Quote: SkinnyTonyQuote: gordonm888In the version of survivor/eliminator that I gamble on, you can only pick each team once as a winner in a given NFL season. So picking Baltimore in Week 2 as an obvious pick means that you can't pick Baltimore in subsequent weeks. The nightmare you want to avoid is getting to week 17 and having to pick the Jets over the Chiefs because you've already picked all strong NFL teams as winners in previous weeks.
My Week 2 pick was New England over Miami.
My Week 1 Pick was Arizona Cardinals over Carolina Panthers.
So, now I can no longer Pick the Cardinals nor Patriots in subsequent weeks, but I still have the Ravens, Bills and Eagles as options.
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Yeah I think it's the norm to not be able to use a team twice. But picking an underdog (even a small one) is just crazy. It doesn't matter which teams you have left of you lose in week 2 because you didn't get lucky on your 45% pick.
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Well different strategies for different folks, I guess.
Look you might identify the three best NFL teams - say the BIlls, Ravens and Eagles.
And you can then identify the three worst teams - say the Dolphins, Titans and Panthers.
Now if you decide you're going to pick the best teams to win, then you will have used them all up after surviving 3 weeks. However, if you decide you're going to fade one of the three worst teams every week -then you can probably do that for most of the season.
And that plays into this cold hard fact: There are 18 weeks in the season and you must pick a different team to win each week. So you are required to pick a few below-average teams sometime during the 18 week season. And towards the end of the season, depending upon the schedule, you might only have a small handful of games that you can still choose from and you might be stuck having to pick an underdog. So, if I can find games early in the year in which I think that a below-average team is favored to beat an even worse team, I believe that it's smart to make those my picks.
And I'll tell you this: I know that some QBs are terrible when they are pressured or blitzed. Just for giggles: Bryce Young (Panthers); Cam Ward (Titans) and apparently JJ MCCarthy (Vikings). So, I like to find below-average teams who blitz a lot or who have a good defensive line and I'm comfortable picking them against the above QBs. So, I argue that I'm not crazy. I'm trying to be smart.
Quote: gordonm888Quote: SkinnyTonyQuote: gordonm888In the version of survivor/eliminator that I gamble on, you can only pick each team once as a winner in a given NFL season. So picking Baltimore in Week 2 as an obvious pick means that you can't pick Baltimore in subsequent weeks. The nightmare you want to avoid is getting to week 17 and having to pick the Jets over the Chiefs because you've already picked all strong NFL teams as winners in previous weeks.
My Week 2 pick was New England over Miami.
My Week 1 Pick was Arizona Cardinals over Carolina Panthers.
So, now I can no longer Pick the Cardinals nor Patriots in subsequent weeks, but I still have the Ravens, Bills and Eagles as options.
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Yeah I think it's the norm to not be able to use a team twice. But picking an underdog (even a small one) is just crazy. It doesn't matter which teams you have left of you lose in week 2 because you didn't get lucky on your 45% pick.
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Well different strategies for different folks, I guess.
Look you might identify the three best NFL teams - say the BIlls, Ravens and Eagles.
And you can then identify the three worst teams - say the Dolphins, Titans and Panthers.
Now if you decide you're going to pick the best teams to win, then you will have used them all up after surviving 3 weeks. However, if you decide you're going to fade one of the three worst teams every week -then you can probably do that for most of the season.
And that plays into this cold hard fact: There are 18 weeks in the season and you must pick a different team to win each week. So you are required to pick a few below-average teams sometime during the 18 week season. And towards the end of the season, depending upon the schedule, you might only have a small handful of games that you can still choose from and you might be stuck having to pick an underdog. So, if you can find games early in the year when you think that a below-average team is favored to beat an even worse team, I believe that it's smart to make those your picks.
And I'll tell you this: I know that some QBs are terrible when they are pressured or blitzed. Just for giggles: Bryce Young (Panthers); Cam Ward (Titans) and apparently JJ MCCarthy (Vikings). So, I like to find below-average teams who blitz a lot or who have a good defensive line and I'm comfortable picking them against the above QBs. So, I argue that I'm not crazy. I'm trying to be smart.
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But you are going to have a better chance to use NE. However much you liked them in this game, you have to like them more when they play in NE. Why take them on the road when you can take them later in the year at home?
And, realistically, even in the last week, there are 16 games and you'll have used 17 teams. It's highly unlikely you have to take an underdog.
Also did you bet the game? If you felt good enough to pick them in survivor (presumably you think that the line is way off and they had at least a 65 or 70% chance of winning, which would really be what it would take for it to be a good survivor pick) then getting them at +110 (which was widely available, even right up until kickoff) would have a 40%+ edge.
FWIW the game played out very much like a coin flip. There were 2 missed extra points, 2 return TDs, and what would have been the game winning TD for Miami didn't count because Achane's foot touched the sideline. The game very much looked like a coin flip to me. The wrong team was probably favored, but it was close to a coin flip either way. On the hand Baltimore won by 24 pts. There's no doubt in my mind that that was a solid 80% or 90% play. Yes, there will be opportunities to use Baltimore later in the year, but probably not that good.
I won the minor amount on both I participated in, going along with the idea that it was +ev. I really wasn't sure about that, but since DK is changing the rules on it, I think that means they maybe got clobbered ... affirmation that it was +ev. And I think they're back to -ev with the change
Quote: odiousgambitDK's ghost leg parlay offer has changed now, so that you have to bet a -ev parlay first, then you get to bet the ghostly one [I think it's the case for everybody]
I won the minor amount on both I participated in, going along with the idea that it was +ev. I really wasn't sure about that, but since DK is changing the rules on it, I think that means they maybe got clobbered ... affirmation that it was +ev. And I think they're back to -ev with the change
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Not even close to -EV with the change. Was grossly +EV before, now just substantially +EV with the change.
3 leg parlay. Say you take all coin flips. You win three 1/8 of the time. You win two 3/8 of the time. You either lose 2 or 3 1/2 the time. $10 bet. 1/2 the time you lose $10. 3/8 of the time you win $30. 1/8 of the time you win $70. Even if you subtract some for vig EV EXCEEDS 100%!
EXCEEDS 100%.
4 losses of $10
3 wins of $30
1 win of $70.
That’s +$120 for every eight $10 bets. Or +$15 for each $10 opportunity. So figuring in the vig maybe the $15 is only $11 or $12.
And…. this new iteration lets you bet $20, not just $10. So DOUBLE the positive EV available. Yes, you are paying $2 or $3 in EV to make the bet that qualifies for the ghost bet.
BUT ITS NOT CLOSE!
Play it. I’ll post mine after I get it which is after Bills game.
Oh yeah, and the ‘taking coin flips’ is not even the best way EV wise to hit this. It’s just easiest to do the math for….
As in:
a DRich inspired pick for tomorrow
Kent St./FSU over 55.5
the spread is 45.5 -
Texas Tech got 62 on Kent St. and FSU is ranked much higher than Texas Tech
FSU crushed Alabama in its first game and put 77 points on the board in its last game - gllta
.
Every 4pt+ favorite has won outright so far this year. Only one 3.5pt favorite lost, and only one 3pt favorite lost.
This happened for most of last year (though not to this extreme) when there were some big upsets in the first 2-3 weeks and then after that the favorites and overs just steamrolled.
Is this just fluke or something significant? In other words, is there some change to the game that the models have not (yet) adjusted to?
Quote: odiousgambitI have to bet $10 on a 3 leg initially, then only get to bet $5 on the ghost. Dunno 'bout that
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Same as me, proportionally. Mine was $40, and $20. I hit almost all of my parlays last night, except the $40 one! I had under 50 and the last minute Bills FG sank me. Best hit was Kincaid 25 yards each half at +850. All I kept hearing pregame was ‘Dolphins bad against TEs’ and ‘Bills want to target Kincaid’. When I first saw +850 I thought it was a typo. Fish +12.5 started most of the parlays. Cook over yards too.
My ghost bet is Packers, Eagles, Falcons, Seahawks. I consider the Packers game a free add on to the other 3 team parlay, which I hope to hit st least two of.
Quote: SkinnyTonyI heard something interesting on a podcast this week.
Every 4pt+ favorite has won outright so far this year. Only one 3.5pt favorite lost, and only one 3pt favorite lost.
This happened for most of last year (though not to this extreme) when there were some big upsets in the first 2-3 weeks and then after that the favorites and overs just steamrolled.
Is this just fluke or something significant? In other words, is there some change to the game that the models have not (yet) adjusted to?
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I have a feeling Seahawks are breaking that trend this week.
Quote: unJonQuote: SkinnyTonyI heard something interesting on a podcast this week.
Every 4pt+ favorite has won outright so far this year. Only one 3.5pt favorite lost, and only one 3pt favorite lost.
This happened for most of last year (though not to this extreme) when there were some big upsets in the first 2-3 weeks and then after that the favorites and overs just steamrolled.
Is this just fluke or something significant? In other words, is there some change to the game that the models have not (yet) adjusted to?
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I have a feeling Seahawks are breaking that trend this week.
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Hey that's one of my teaser legs. They don't need to cover but they still need to win.
It's also my survivor league pick. Given the value of saving the Bills and Packers I thought the Seahawks were clearly the best choice
So... I disagree
Quote: SkinnyTonyQuote: unJonQuote: SkinnyTonyI heard something interesting on a podcast this week.
Every 4pt+ favorite has won outright so far this year. Only one 3.5pt favorite lost, and only one 3pt favorite lost.
This happened for most of last year (though not to this extreme) when there were some big upsets in the first 2-3 weeks and then after that the favorites and overs just steamrolled.
Is this just fluke or something significant? In other words, is there some change to the game that the models have not (yet) adjusted to?
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I have a feeling Seahawks are breaking that trend this week.
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Hey that's one of my teaser legs. They don't need to cover but they still need to win.
It's also my survivor league pick. Given the value of saving the Bills and Packers I thought the Seahawks were clearly the best choice
So... I disagree
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I’m guessing about 25% of any given pool agrees with you.
I’m no sharp. Just think NO has looked very competitive against better teams than Seattle, and Seahawks didn’t look as good as the final score in the Steeler game would indicate.
Best of luck in survivor though. I’m on Bucs and Falcons (breaking my no-road-team rule early this year).
Quote: SOOPOOMy ghost bet is Packers, Eagles, Falcons, Seahawks. I consider the Packers game a free add on to the other 3 team parlay, which I hope to hit st least two of.
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Money line?
I won't bore you with the math but you are giving up most of your edge paying this bonus with heavy money line favorites. If you have to play a sucker SGP for double the stake in order to get the bonus, you may be close to even overall.
You can get a nice 150%+ edge playing 4 coin flips at -110. 4 heavy favorites at -400 returns less than your EV on the 4 coin flips, even if all 4 favorites were guaranteed to win!
Quote: SkinnyTonyQuote: SOOPOOMy ghost bet is Packers, Eagles, Falcons, Seahawks. I consider the Packers game a free add on to the other 3 team parlay, which I hope to hit st least two of.
link to original post
Money line?
I won't bore you with the math but you are giving up most of your edge paying this bonus with heavy money line favorites. If you have to play a sucker SGP for double the stake in order to get the bonus, you may be close to even overall.
You can get a nice 150%+ edge playing 4 coin flips at -110. 4 heavy favorites at -400 returns less than your EV on the 4 coin flips, even if all 4 favorites were guaranteed to win!
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Not sure what lines you are getting…. but two faves are around -200, one around -350. As I mentioned I’m only including GB as a ‘free’ sweetener. And I did mention exactly what you said about the 4 coin flips!
I often do give up some EV on these +EV plays to lessen variance. I’ll disagree on giving up ‘most’ of my edge this way. I’ll agree with giving up ‘some’ of my edge.
Tell me exactly what parlay you would use this week? Has to be NFL. Each leg must be -500 or longer. C
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: SkinnyTonyQuote: SOOPOOMy ghost bet is Packers, Eagles, Falcons, Seahawks. I consider the Packers game a free add on to the other 3 team parlay, which I hope to hit st least two of.
link to original post
Money line?
I won't bore you with the math but you are giving up most of your edge paying this bonus with heavy money line favorites. If you have to play a sucker SGP for double the stake in order to get the bonus, you may be close to even overall.
You can get a nice 150%+ edge playing 4 coin flips at -110. 4 heavy favorites at -400 returns less than your EV on the 4 coin flips, even if all 4 favorites were guaranteed to win!
link to original post
Not sure what lines you are getting…. but two faves are around -200, one around -350. As I mentioned I’m only including GB as a ‘free’ sweetener. And I did mention exactly what you said about the 4 coin flips!
I often do give up some EV on these +EV plays to lessen variance. I’ll disagree on giving up ‘most’ of my edge this way. I’ll agree with giving up ‘some’ of my edge.
Tell me exactly what parlay you would use this week? Has to be NFL. Each leg must be -500 or longer. C
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My point is just that your edge drops dramatically as the odds you use get shorter. Longer odds = (significantly) bigger edge. Of course you need to balance this against increased variance (just as you would with any bet).
You are definitely giving up most of the edge. We can do the math exactly if you want.
The variance on 4 coin flips is not horrible. You win almost a quarter of the time. It's not like you are taking four +300 dogs. If your bankroll is at least a few hundred dollars it can easily handle this at $20.
Depending on bankroll, I couldn't imagine doing anything shorter than 4 coin flips. With a bankroll in the thousands I would be looking at at least moderate money line dogs.
There is nothing "free" about Green Bay. If we assume an efficient market at sharp books they are going to lose over 20% of the time.
