Sports betting chatter
Quote: SOOPOOBetMGM no longer lets me participate in their promotion where you get a free profit boost for clicking on a fake batter. Last year I’m sure I made $$$$ on that promo alone.
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Fake batter? I'm assuming you miss-typed?
one more for today
Taijuan Walker under 2.5 earned runs allowed +110____________brewers vs. phillies
he's been under that total in 8 out of his last 10 outings
Espn ranks the Brewers 24th out of 30 in batting
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Quote: lilredrooster.
one more for today
Taijuan Walker under 2.5 earned runs allowed +110____________brewers vs. phillies
he's been under that total in 8 out of his last 10 outings
Espn ranks the Brewers 24th out of 30 in batting
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With a bet like that, does he have to pitch a certain number of innings? For example- a two out error in the first inning allows eight unearned runs, and he doesn't come out to pitch the second inning, do you win the bet? How about if he is injured and only faces three batters before being pulled?
Quote: odiousgambitQuote: SOOPOOBetMGM no longer lets me participate in their promotion where you get a free profit boost for clicking on a fake batter. Last year I’m sure I made $$$$ on that promo alone.
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Fake batter? I'm assuming you miss-typed?
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It’s a silly promo game. Some computer generated batter either is out, hits a single, double…. Etc…. Basically just a free spin to win a prize.
Quote: billryanQuote: lilredrooster.
one more for today
Taijuan Walker under 2.5 earned runs allowed +110____________brewers vs. phillies
he's been under that total in 8 out of his last 10 outings
Espn ranks the Brewers 24th out of 30 in batting
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With a bet like that, does he have to pitch a certain number of innings? For example- a two out error in the first inning allows eight unearned runs, and he doesn't come out to pitch the second inning, do you win the bet? How about if he is injured and only faces three batters before being pulled?
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Most become ‘action’ after he throws one pitch.
I would have liked ‘Jake Oettinger to start and make ZERO saves’ at 1,000,000 -1 last night….
you'd think I'd have realized what that was, that was one of the games I was cleaning up on. Maybe I was luckier than average on that kind of promotion. I made the mistake of withdrawing a lot of the money and got noticedQuote: SOOPOOQuote: odiousgambitQuote: SOOPOOBetMGM no longer lets me participate in their promotion where you get a free profit boost for clicking on a fake batter. Last year I’m sure I made $$$$ on that promo alone.
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Fake batter? I'm assuming you miss-typed?
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It’s a silly promo game. Some computer generated batter either is out, hits a single, double…. Etc…. Basically just a free spin to win a prize.
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每个事情的发展总有他的解决方法
黑料不打烊
split on my mlb picks for yesterday but the one that won one paid a lot less than even money
today:
Benedict Mathurin_______over 9.5 points________-114 to -130 depending on the book_________knicks vs. pacers
he had an astonishing 20 points in just 12 minutes in game 4 - he's really stepped up his game
he got 25 minutes in game 5 and got 23 points
pretty sure he'll get a good amount of playing time today - his regular season average was 16 points and 30 minutes played
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one more for today -
Hunter Goodman under 0.5 runs scored - 210______________rockies vs. mets
he's scored only one run in his last 10 games and he's been over that total only 5 times in his last 27 games
he's facing the Mets probable starter Kodai Senga who is having a great year so far with a 1.46 era - the Mets bullpen is very tough too
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I’m getting +600 on Griffin to win Memorial. You don’t get rich betting against Scheffler….
I have one ‘Towns’ parlay. Over points, rebounds, assists, 3’s, steals. Around +1500. I like highly correlated parlays. If he can stay out of foul trouble I expect Thibodeau to ride him. The steal part is really a random event.
I’ve been spot on handicapping the Fever. They were inexplicably 12.5 point favorites yesterday. Someone should inform the bookies they are plain bad without Clark. The (previously) winless Sun beat them outright. I was chicken and only bet them with points in my boosted parlays.
The TV networks are cringing at this matchup. Two midwestern teams that will not attract anyone outside the Midwest except for true sports fans. There will not be any casual fans watching.
Quote: SOOPOOTailed you. Best I got on Mathurin was -125. Best on Goodman was -220.
I’m getting +600 on Griffin to win Memorial. You don’t get rich betting against Scheffler….
I have one ‘Towns’ parlay. Over points, rebounds, assists, 3’s, steals. Around +1500. I like highly correlated parlays. If he can stay out of foul trouble I expect Thibodeau to ride him. The steal part is really a random event.
I’ve been spot on handicapping the Fever. They were inexplicably 12.5 point favorites yesterday. Someone should inform the bookies they are plain bad without Clark. The (previously) winless Sun beat them outright. I was chicken and only bet them with points in my boosted parlays.
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High scoring rout for Indy….. but….. Mathurin, despite getting 4 points in only 7 first half minutes looked like he wasn’t even going to be put in in the second half…. He did after an injury but didn’t sniff the over.
My Towns bet lost…. but it was a ‘good’ bet. He had 4 good looks at 3 pointers. I needed him to make 2 but he missed all 4. Had he made two of them my 15-1 shot would have hit.
Mid game, even when the Knicks tied it up, it just looked like they were struggling with Indy’s defense and turnovers would lead to quick and easy points for Indy. Bet Indy -4/over 219.5 on DK and FD with boosts. That $$ made up for my losing series bet on the Knicks.
Indy huge dog to OKC. SOOPOO will be betting the over in game 1. It’s ‘only’ 230.
once again, split - lost the NBA pick and won the MLB pick but it paid much less than even money - so far picking props here I'm 7-4 - I'm ahead but only by a tiny little bit -
I've been doing much better on MLB picks lately - will try just that for a while
today:
Ke'Bryan Hayes a weak batter, batting 8th, under 0.5 runs scored -225______________Pirates vs. Padres
facing a pretty tough probable starter
he's scored a run in only 2 of his last 10 games and 5 of his last 26 games
I think lots of bettors don't like bets paying less than even money by that much - but my belief is that is where a player can most easily find an edge as so many more find bets paying more than even money to be more attractive and that affects how they set the lines
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one more for today -
J.P. Sears under 16.5 outs recorded - 120___________________athletics vs. blue jays
he's gotten bombed his last 3 times out twice by weak hitting teams
last time out he got bombed by the Astros giving up 9 earned runs in just 3 innings
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my 2 mlb props posted yesterday both won
today:
Luis Rengifo under 0.5 runs scored - 180________________angels vs. red sox
he's a very weak batter facing so far having one of his worst years facing a very tough red sox pitcher
he hasn't scored a run in his last 10 games
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I think in a casino paying more than even money makes it attractive and that may win out ... plus the house is more at risk, which they don't like and may adjust on that. But for sports, you have the tendency to bet on the favorite, so I think it's different and the two things may balance out betterQuote: lilredroosterI think lots of bettors don't like bets paying less than even money by that much - but my belief is that is where a player can most easily find an edge as so many more find bets paying more than even money to be more attractive and that affects how they set the lines
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Quote: odiousgambitI think in a casino paying more than even money makes it attractive and that may win out ... plus the house is more at risk, which they don't like and may adjust on that. But for sports, you have the tendency to bet on the favorite, so I think it's different and the two things may balance out betterQuote: lilredroosterI think lots of bettors don't like bets paying less than even money by that much - but my belief is that is where a player can most easily find an edge as so many more find bets paying more than even money to be more attractive and that affects how they set the lines
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I don't have data on sports betting
but it's well known that in horse racing the fave is generally under bet and the longshots are over bet
a horseplayer blindly betting on faves will lose less than the takeout (but not nearly enough to be profitable since the takeout in racing is huge)
a horseplayer betting on extreme longshots will get crushed in the long run losing much more that the takeout
you are prolly right about players liking the fave a lot in sports betting but I would speculate that when the line gets close to -200 that is no longer the case
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yesterday's prop pick won
today:
Nolan Jones Under 0.5 runs scored - 192____________guardians vs. yankees
he's a very weak batter, batting 9th, and having his worst season ever
and he's facing an extremely tough Yankees starter
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yesterday's prop pick won
today:
Rhys Hoskins Under 0.5 runs scored - 110________________brewers vs. reds
he's scored a run in only 2 of his last 10 games
and he's facing a Reds starter having a great year
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Quote: avianrandyLilredredrooster as someone who follows baseball did you get tonight's finally jeopardy?
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Quote: odiousgambitQuote: avianrandyLilredredrooster as someone who follows baseball did you get tonight's finally jeopardy?
link to original postI'm guessing it was ice from a plane's overflowed toilet
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no, I didn't get it
I actually don't follow the MLB all that closely
I only look closely at individual player stats that might indicate what I think can lead to a good pick
I really only look at teams if I'm looking at their batting stats when I'm looking at a pick re a starting pitcher
because of the internet there is tons of helpful info out there
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Quote: lilredrooster.
yesterday's prop pick won
today:
Rhys Hoskins Under 0.5 runs scored - 110________________brewers vs. reds
he's scored a run in only 2 of his last 10 games
and he's facing a Reds starter having a great year
.
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Hoskins scored.
I do like your thinking. Weak hitter/strong pitcher.
Keep em coming.
Better than my picks today.
Andreeva. Loss
Zverev. Loss.
Marlins. Loss.
And I have Oilers not looking good but still alive.
gonna take a break from pics - maybe come back later - kinna getting tired of it - I spent a lot of time just to find ONE pic I liked -
I was 11-5 with my recent prop pics - a few paid only close to 1/2 - but still they were fairly well profitable
for a bettor willing to take the time to analyze it - imo - there are definitely props out there every day which seem to be advantageous
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prop pick for today:
Michael Harris ll Under 0.5 runs scored -170____________braves vs. giants
he's a weak batter on the road batting 9th and having his worst year so far against a Giants starter who is so far having a great season - Hayden Birdsong who is 3-1 with a 2.37 era - the Giants bullpen is also very strong
Harris has scored a run in only one of his last 10 games and thru the entire season he's scored only 13 runs in 61 games
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Quote: lilredrooster.
prop pick for today:
Michael Harris ll Under 0.5 runs scored -170____________braves vs. giants
he's a weak batter on the road batting 9th and having his worst year so far against a Giants starter who is so far having a great season - Hayden Birdsong who is 3-1 with a 2.37 era - the Giants bullpen is also very strong
Harris has scored a run in only one of his last 10 games and thru the entire season he's scored only 13 runs in 61 games
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So you are saying he is due!!!!!
Quote: lilredrooster.
prop pick for today:
Michael Harris ll Under 0.5 runs scored -170____________braves vs. giants
he's a weak batter on the road batting 9th and having his worst year so far against a Giants starter who is so far having a great season - Hayden Birdsong who is 3-1 with a 2.37 era - the Giants bullpen is also very strong
Harris has scored a run in only one of his last 10 games and thru the entire season he's scored only 13 runs in 61 games
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Best I could get was -180. I also had a different offer and have ‘no run first inning’ for this game as well.
My ‘to hit a HR’ guy tonight is a big longshot. Went with Starling Marte. Getting around +900. Anyone in that ballpark against that team (Colorado) seems like a good bet.
Quote: avianrandyHa e you made your NBA pick for Sunday game yet
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I am putting a small bet on Pacers +10.5 (-105)
Quote: DRichQuote: avianrandyHa e you made your NBA pick for Sunday game yet
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I am putting a small bet on Pacers +10.5 (-105)
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I got +11. And used them at +14.5 in a parlay.
I came within a point of hitting big parlay last game. Pacers, a bunch of overs, only loss was Halliburton to score 15 or more. He hit for 14……
Holmgren was a total dud. And SGA was nothing short of a ball hog. And an inefficient one at that.
I like the Giants + 102 over the Braves today
Giants are much tougher at home then the Braves are away and they have a much tougher starting pitcher
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Quote: lilredrooster.
I like the Giants + 102 over the Braves today
Giants are much tougher at home then the Braves are away and they have a much tougher starting pitcher
won again
hey guys - I'm 14-5 in my last 19 picks including the Belmont
doesn't anybody wanna tell me how great I am___?_______lol___________just kidding
unfortunately, I don't enjoy it much anymore - won't be making many more - don't really need or care about $$$ anymore - lost my motivation
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Quote: lilredroosterQuote: lilredrooster.
I like the Giants + 102 over the Braves today
Giants are much tougher at home then the Braves are away and they have a much tougher starting pitcher
won again
hey guys - I'm 14-5 in my last 19 picks including the Belmont
doesn't anybody wanna tell me how great I am__________lol___________just kidding
unfortunately, I don't enjoy it much anymore - won't be making many more - don't really need or care about $$$ anymore - lost my motivation
.
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Congrats! I frankly never thought you were doing this ‘work’ for the money! I thought you were doing it for the fun of it?!?
I enjoy beating the ‘game’ way more than the money I’ll make from it. I was about to post about my great baseball bets last night. One was Caesar’s boosted parlay of Judge/Devers HRs at +1500. Until your post I wasn’t going to mention that I only bet $1 on it. It was probably a -EV bet that just got lucky to hit. But I hit ‘big’ on two parlays that included Sox winning and over and Devers a hit mid game. (He was 0-2 at that point, and the Sox were down 2-0). So won at 14-1, and 8-1. $10 and $5 bet limit respectively. So my ‘big’ win was around $180. When Axel tailed some of your picks he was betting $2k or so per bet.
Point being I would LOVE it if I felt I could find +EV picks, even if betting $1 with +EV’s of a dime.
By the way, I think your Braves picks should take into account ‘pre-Acuna’ and ‘with Acuna’.
pretty interesting - to me anyway
legendary sports bettor Steve Fezzik believe an edge can be had on bets that pay way, way less than even money -
he takes this to extremes that I never have and never will - still I recognize him as an expert and his words have value
here are some quotes from him and then the link:
"NCAA basketball favorites of between 22 and 24½ points have won 449 of 454 games since 2006, according to boydbets.com, for a winning percentage of 98.9. That equates to a -9,090 money line, while a 98.0 win percentage equates to -4,999.
So Fezzik believes he has an edge when he can lay less than -5,000 in those games. He said he routinely lays -4,000 and will do so again in the NCAA Tournament.
“I bet $40,000 all the time to win $1,000. But it’s something you probably shouldn’t be doing unless you’re a guy with a documented track record and strong math history,” he said. “The real key number is when you get a favorite above 22 points and I can lay -4,000. That would be the sweet spot.”
Fezzik told me that he actually bet $38,000 to win $1,000 on the Wildcats, who were as high as 24½-point favorites over the Blue Demons, who went 0-20 in the conference in the regular season.
https://forum.bookmakersreview.com/threads/%E2%9C%94%EF%B8%8Ffezzik-says-betting-40k-to-win-1k-pays-off-long-run.50748/
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Quote: lilredrooster.
pretty interesting - to me anyway
legendary sports bettor Steve Fezzik believe an edge can be had on bets that pay way, way less than even money -
he takes this to extremes that I never have and never will - still I recognize him as an expert and his words have value
here are some quotes from him and then the link:
"NCAA basketball favorites of between 22 and 24½ points have won 449 of 454 games since 2006, according to boydbets.com, for a winning percentage of 98.9. That equates to a -9,090 money line, while a 98.0 win percentage equates to -4,999.
So Fezzik believes he has an edge when he can lay less than -5,000 in those games. He said he routinely lays -4,000 and will do so again in the NCAA Tournament.
“I bet $40,000 all the time to win $1,000. But it’s something you probably shouldn’t be doing unless you’re a guy with a documented track record and strong math history,” he said. “The real key number is when you get a favorite above 22 points and I can lay -4,000. That would be the sweet spot.”
Fezzik told me that he actually bet $38,000 to win $1,000 on the Wildcats, who were as high as 24½-point favorites over the Blue Demons, who went 0-20 in the conference in the regular season.
https://forum.bookmakersreview.com/t...ong-run.50748/
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I had a few conversations with Steve many years ago (probably 25) before he made a name for himself. I was interested in him because of his statistics background. in some ways he reminded me of the Wizard.
Quote: billryanI met Fez a few times around 2000-2001, when he was a frequent poster on Anthony Curtis's board. He was pretty sharp and was just getting into having a paid position. He seemed like a nice guy, and I'm glad he has succeeded to the point of being a legend.
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My wife was the moderator at those forums and and employee of Curt, I met her through a forum get together.
the early line gave me these to bet with these odds
Mcilroy +1200
Morikawa +1600
Schauffele +1600
Aberg +2200
Cantlay +2200
Thomas +2800
Hovland +3000
Fleetwood +3000
Straka +3000
Bradley +3500
Burns +3500
Henley +4000
so if Mcilroy wins and each bet is one unit, I lose 11 units and win 12. Anyone else on the list, I do better.
below is a portion of the leader board as of a short while ago up to Mcilroy. Below the name is the score for the round so far, then the last hole finished, and then the score for the match so far.
It’s early, but I’m starting to conclude that the likelihood for the dark horses to win is too strong for this kind of betting to hold up [never mind Sheffler]. But we’ll see. I do have Thomas.
T1 J. Thomas
-6 18 -9
T1 S. Scheffler
-1 18 -9
T3 J. Day
-3 15 -7
T3 D. McCarthy
-6 18 -7
T5 N. Taylor
-2 18 -6
T5 A. Eckroat
+2 14 -6
T5 A. Hadwin
-2 13 -6
T5 K. Bradley
E 10 -6
T9 W. Clark
+1 16 -5
T9 C. Young
E 12 -5
T9 P. Cantlay
-2 18 -5
T9 E. Cole
-3 18 -5
T13 M. Greyserman
E 13 -4
T13 T. Fleetwood
E 12 -4
T13 R. McIlroy
+2 10 -4
Fleetwood T 6th at -6
Bradley also T 6th with -6
Henley T 14th -4
others:
T24 C. Morikawa
+1 18 -2
T42 X. Schauffele
+2 18 +1
T63 J. Straka
+1 18 +5
T23 S. Burns
+1 12 -2
Aberg, Hovland out?
Below shows odds bets are placed at and then new standing, Didn't rearrange.
Sheffler, no bet on him, is now tied for 8th at -7, with new odds paying +9000
Mcilroy +1200, now tied for 8th at -7 …. new odds +35,000
Morikawa +1600, now T33 at -3 … new odds +100,000
Schauffele +1600 , now T42 at -1 …. odds +100,000
Aberg +2200, T42, -1 …. odds +100,000
Cantlay +2200, T8, -7………….+35,000
Thomas +2800, T14, -6………+100,000
Hovland +3000, T14, -6………+100,000
Fleetwood +3000 …. now top of leader board with -16, new odds -175
Straka +3000, T58, +2, no odds now offered
Bradley +3500, T2, -13, +400
Burns +3500, T22, -5, +100,000
Henley +4000, T2, -13, +450
BEFORE the tournament, which, if any, did you feel was a + EV bet? If the answer is NONE (it should be!), then your ‘system’ will fail over time. The sum of a bunch of -EV bets can never be +EV.
In PGA tour events guys outside the top dozen win routinely. You just mentioned Spaun. You had Highsmith? Detry? Higgo? Fox? Griffin? They all won this year.
I think it would be interesting to see in a full field event if Scheffler plus 13-154 beats 2-12? Or if Scheffer isn’t playing substitute a different #1. I think for the British Open I’d take Scheffler plus 13-154.
I agree, as I said, this is just for fun, and you can imagine I didn't bet bigQuote: SOOPOOWithout going over each of your bets, let’s go back to the basics……. You are making a dozen or so individual bets.
BEFORE the tournament, which, if any, did you feel was a + EV bet? If the answer is NONE (it should be!), then your ‘system’ will fail over time. The sum of a bunch of -EV bets can never be +EV.
It is clear the dark horses aren't all that dark. Next time I think I'll go further into the field, with maybe the 3 lowest paying players paying 'not enough" but hedging against the loss.Quote:In PGA tour events guys outside the top dozen win routinely. You just mentioned Spaun. You had Highsmith? Detry? Higgo? Fox? Griffin? They all won this year.
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It won't be +EV
so it proves it is +EV after all !! *
* no, actually, I'm not that stupid
per wiki - see link - Billy Walters made and won a $2.2 million bet in 2007 on USC beating Michigan which they did by as score of 32-18
per google $2.2 million in 2007 is about equal to $3.3 million today
WOW_______!!!
from Wiki:
"In January 2007, Walters won a $2.2 million bet on University of Southern California defeating University of Michigan; USC won, 32–18. In 2011, Walters claimed he could make between $50 and $60 million on a good year"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billy_Walters_(gambler)
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Quote: lilredrooster.
per wiki - see link - Billy Walters made and won a $2.2 million bet in 2007 on USC beating Michigan which they did by as score of 32-18
per google $2.2 million in 2007 is about equal to $3.3 million today
WOW_______!!!
from Wiki:
"In January 2007, Walters won a $2.2 million bet on University of Southern California defeating University of Michigan; USC won, 32–18. In 2011, Walters claimed he could make between $50 and $60 million on a good year"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billy_Walters_(gambler)
.
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If you haven't, read this book.
Quote: DRichQuote: lilredrooster.
per wiki - see link - Billy Walters made and won a $2.2 million bet in 2007 on USC beating Michigan which they did by as score of 32-18
per google $2.2 million in 2007 is about equal to $3.3 million today
WOW_______!!!
from Wiki:
"In January 2007, Walters won a $2.2 million bet on University of Southern California defeating University of Michigan; USC won, 32–18. In 2011, Walters claimed he could make between $50 and $60 million on a good year"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billy_Walters_(gambler)
I'm not sure why anyone would believe a word he says, but Im sure his stories are great.
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If you haven't, read this book.
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