Sports betting chatter
Quote: SOOPOOBetMGM no longer lets me participate in their promotion where you get a free profit boost for clicking on a fake batter. Last year I’m sure I made $$$$ on that promo alone.
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Fake batter? I'm assuming you miss-typed?
one more for today
Taijuan Walker under 2.5 earned runs allowed +110____________brewers vs. phillies
he's been under that total in 8 out of his last 10 outings
Espn ranks the Brewers 24th out of 30 in batting
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Quote: lilredrooster.
one more for today
Taijuan Walker under 2.5 earned runs allowed +110____________brewers vs. phillies
he's been under that total in 8 out of his last 10 outings
Espn ranks the Brewers 24th out of 30 in batting
.
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With a bet like that, does he have to pitch a certain number of innings? For example- a two out error in the first inning allows eight unearned runs, and he doesn't come out to pitch the second inning, do you win the bet? How about if he is injured and only faces three batters before being pulled?
Quote: odiousgambitQuote: SOOPOOBetMGM no longer lets me participate in their promotion where you get a free profit boost for clicking on a fake batter. Last year I’m sure I made $$$$ on that promo alone.
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Fake batter? I'm assuming you miss-typed?
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It’s a silly promo game. Some computer generated batter either is out, hits a single, double…. Etc…. Basically just a free spin to win a prize.
Quote: billryanQuote: lilredrooster.
one more for today
Taijuan Walker under 2.5 earned runs allowed +110____________brewers vs. phillies
he's been under that total in 8 out of his last 10 outings
Espn ranks the Brewers 24th out of 30 in batting
.
link to original post
With a bet like that, does he have to pitch a certain number of innings? For example- a two out error in the first inning allows eight unearned runs, and he doesn't come out to pitch the second inning, do you win the bet? How about if he is injured and only faces three batters before being pulled?
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Most become ‘action’ after he throws one pitch.
I would have liked ‘Jake Oettinger to start and make ZERO saves’ at 1,000,000 -1 last night….
you'd think I'd have realized what that was, that was one of the games I was cleaning up on. Maybe I was luckier than average on that kind of promotion. I made the mistake of withdrawing a lot of the money and got noticedQuote: SOOPOOQuote: odiousgambitQuote: SOOPOOBetMGM no longer lets me participate in their promotion where you get a free profit boost for clicking on a fake batter. Last year I’m sure I made $$$$ on that promo alone.
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Fake batter? I'm assuming you miss-typed?
link to original post
It’s a silly promo game. Some computer generated batter either is out, hits a single, double…. Etc…. Basically just a free spin to win a prize.
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每个事情的发展总有他的解决方法
黑料不打烊
split on my mlb picks for yesterday but the one that won one paid a lot less than even money
today:
Benedict Mathurin_______over 9.5 points________-114 to -130 depending on the book_________knicks vs. pacers
he had an astonishing 20 points in just 12 minutes in game 4 - he's really stepped up his game
he got 25 minutes in game 5 and got 23 points
pretty sure he'll get a good amount of playing time today - his regular season average was 16 points and 30 minutes played
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one more for today -
Hunter Goodman under 0.5 runs scored - 210______________rockies vs. mets
he's scored only one run in his last 10 games and he's been over that total only 5 times in his last 27 games
he's facing the Mets probable starter Kodai Senga who is having a great year so far with a 1.46 era - the Mets bullpen is very tough too
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I’m getting +600 on Griffin to win Memorial. You don’t get rich betting against Scheffler….
I have one ‘Towns’ parlay. Over points, rebounds, assists, 3’s, steals. Around +1500. I like highly correlated parlays. If he can stay out of foul trouble I expect Thibodeau to ride him. The steal part is really a random event.
I’ve been spot on handicapping the Fever. They were inexplicably 12.5 point favorites yesterday. Someone should inform the bookies they are plain bad without Clark. The (previously) winless Sun beat them outright. I was chicken and only bet them with points in my boosted parlays.
The TV networks are cringing at this matchup. Two midwestern teams that will not attract anyone outside the Midwest except for true sports fans. There will not be any casual fans watching.
Quote: SOOPOOTailed you. Best I got on Mathurin was -125. Best on Goodman was -220.
I’m getting +600 on Griffin to win Memorial. You don’t get rich betting against Scheffler….
I have one ‘Towns’ parlay. Over points, rebounds, assists, 3’s, steals. Around +1500. I like highly correlated parlays. If he can stay out of foul trouble I expect Thibodeau to ride him. The steal part is really a random event.
I’ve been spot on handicapping the Fever. They were inexplicably 12.5 point favorites yesterday. Someone should inform the bookies they are plain bad without Clark. The (previously) winless Sun beat them outright. I was chicken and only bet them with points in my boosted parlays.
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High scoring rout for Indy….. but….. Mathurin, despite getting 4 points in only 7 first half minutes looked like he wasn’t even going to be put in in the second half…. He did after an injury but didn’t sniff the over.
My Towns bet lost…. but it was a ‘good’ bet. He had 4 good looks at 3 pointers. I needed him to make 2 but he missed all 4. Had he made two of them my 15-1 shot would have hit.
Mid game, even when the Knicks tied it up, it just looked like they were struggling with Indy’s defense and turnovers would lead to quick and easy points for Indy. Bet Indy -4/over 219.5 on DK and FD with boosts. That $$ made up for my losing series bet on the Knicks.
Indy huge dog to OKC. SOOPOO will be betting the over in game 1. It’s ‘only’ 230.
once again, split - lost the NBA pick and won the MLB pick but it paid much less than even money - so far picking props here I'm 7-4 - I'm ahead but only by a tiny little bit -
I've been doing much better on MLB picks lately - will try just that for a while
today:
Ke'Bryan Hayes a weak batter, batting 8th, under 0.5 runs scored -225______________Pirates vs. Padres
facing a pretty tough probable starter
he's scored a run in only 2 of his last 10 games and 5 of his last 26 games
I think lots of bettors don't like bets paying less than even money by that much - but my belief is that is where a player can most easily find an edge as so many more find bets paying more than even money to be more attractive and that affects how they set the lines
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one more for today -
J.P. Sears under 16.5 outs recorded - 120___________________athletics vs. blue jays
he's gotten bombed his last 3 times out twice by weak hitting teams
last time out he got bombed by the Astros giving up 9 earned runs in just 3 innings
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my 2 mlb props posted yesterday both won
today:
Luis Rengifo under 0.5 runs scored - 180________________angels vs. red sox
he's a very weak batter facing so far having one of his worst years facing a very tough red sox pitcher
he hasn't scored a run in his last 10 games
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I think in a casino paying more than even money makes it attractive and that may win out ... plus the house is more at risk, which they don't like and may adjust on that. But for sports, you have the tendency to bet on the favorite, so I think it's different and the two things may balance out betterQuote: lilredroosterI think lots of bettors don't like bets paying less than even money by that much - but my belief is that is where a player can most easily find an edge as so many more find bets paying more than even money to be more attractive and that affects how they set the lines
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Quote: odiousgambitI think in a casino paying more than even money makes it attractive and that may win out ... plus the house is more at risk, which they don't like and may adjust on that. But for sports, you have the tendency to bet on the favorite, so I think it's different and the two things may balance out betterQuote: lilredroosterI think lots of bettors don't like bets paying less than even money by that much - but my belief is that is where a player can most easily find an edge as so many more find bets paying more than even money to be more attractive and that affects how they set the lines
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I don't have data on sports betting
but it's well known that in horse racing the fave is generally under bet and the longshots are over bet
a horseplayer blindly betting on faves will lose less than the takeout (but not nearly enough to be profitable since the takeout in racing is huge)
a horseplayer betting on extreme longshots will get crushed in the long run losing much more that the takeout
you are prolly right about players liking the fave a lot in sports betting but I would speculate that when the line gets close to -200 that is no longer the case
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yesterday's prop pick won
today:
Nolan Jones Under 0.5 runs scored - 192____________guardians vs. yankees
he's a very weak batter, batting 9th, and having his worst season ever
and he's facing an extremely tough Yankees starter
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yesterday's prop pick won
today:
Rhys Hoskins Under 0.5 runs scored - 110________________brewers vs. reds
he's scored a run in only 2 of his last 10 games
and he's facing a Reds starter having a great year
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Quote: avianrandyLilredredrooster as someone who follows baseball did you get tonight's finally jeopardy?
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Quote: odiousgambitQuote: avianrandyLilredredrooster as someone who follows baseball did you get tonight's finally jeopardy?
link to original postI'm guessing it was ice from a plane's overflowed toilet
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no, I didn't get it
I actually don't follow the MLB all that closely
I only look closely at individual player stats that might indicate what I think can lead to a good pick
I really only look at teams if I'm looking at their batting stats when I'm looking at a pick re a starting pitcher
because of the internet there is tons of helpful info out there
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Quote: lilredrooster.
yesterday's prop pick won
today:
Rhys Hoskins Under 0.5 runs scored - 110________________brewers vs. reds
he's scored a run in only 2 of his last 10 games
and he's facing a Reds starter having a great year
.
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Hoskins scored.
I do like your thinking. Weak hitter/strong pitcher.
Keep em coming.
Better than my picks today.
Andreeva. Loss
Zverev. Loss.
Marlins. Loss.
And I have Oilers not looking good but still alive.
gonna take a break from pics - maybe come back later - kinna getting tired of it - I spent a lot of time just to find ONE pic I liked -
I was 11-5 with my recent prop pics - a few paid only close to 1/2 - but still they were fairly well profitable
for a bettor willing to take the time to analyze it - imo - there are definitely props out there every day which seem to be advantageous
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prop pick for today:
Michael Harris ll Under 0.5 runs scored -170____________braves vs. giants
he's a weak batter on the road batting 9th and having his worst year so far against a Giants starter who is so far having a great season - Hayden Birdsong who is 3-1 with a 2.37 era - the Giants bullpen is also very strong
Harris has scored a run in only one of his last 10 games and thru the entire season he's scored only 13 runs in 61 games
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Quote: lilredrooster.
prop pick for today:
Michael Harris ll Under 0.5 runs scored -170____________braves vs. giants
he's a weak batter on the road batting 9th and having his worst year so far against a Giants starter who is so far having a great season - Hayden Birdsong who is 3-1 with a 2.37 era - the Giants bullpen is also very strong
Harris has scored a run in only one of his last 10 games and thru the entire season he's scored only 13 runs in 61 games
.
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So you are saying he is due!!!!!
Quote: lilredrooster.
prop pick for today:
Michael Harris ll Under 0.5 runs scored -170____________braves vs. giants
he's a weak batter on the road batting 9th and having his worst year so far against a Giants starter who is so far having a great season - Hayden Birdsong who is 3-1 with a 2.37 era - the Giants bullpen is also very strong
Harris has scored a run in only one of his last 10 games and thru the entire season he's scored only 13 runs in 61 games
.
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Best I could get was -180. I also had a different offer and have ‘no run first inning’ for this game as well.
My ‘to hit a HR’ guy tonight is a big longshot. Went with Starling Marte. Getting around +900. Anyone in that ballpark against that team (Colorado) seems like a good bet.
Quote: avianrandyHa e you made your NBA pick for Sunday game yet
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I am putting a small bet on Pacers +10.5 (-105)
Quote: DRichQuote: avianrandyHa e you made your NBA pick for Sunday game yet
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I am putting a small bet on Pacers +10.5 (-105)
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I got +11. And used them at +14.5 in a parlay.
I came within a point of hitting big parlay last game. Pacers, a bunch of overs, only loss was Halliburton to score 15 or more. He hit for 14……
Holmgren was a total dud. And SGA was nothing short of a ball hog. And an inefficient one at that.
