Sports betting chatter
Quote: PenguinsOfPitI took the Giants ML(-145, pretty good I think bases upon Reds recent struggles and Webb being good). Suspended game so I’m hoping. Glad it wasn’t voided
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I had the Giants in a parlay but wasn’t sure what they’d do. Giants had runners on base so we’re around -250 favorite at the time the game was postponed. I won’t find out how the game would have been graded as I lost a different leg.
I’m getting like no Rewards Credits on Caesars now. No way I make Diamond for next year. I also think I’m getting way less Draft Kings crowns as well. I guess someone figured out that giving me that stuff is not cost effective.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: PenguinsOfPitI took the Giants ML(-145, pretty good I think bases upon Reds recent struggles and Webb being good). Suspended game so I’m hoping. Glad it wasn’t voided
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I had the Giants in a parlay but wasn’t sure what they’d do. Giants had runners on base so we’re around -250 favorite at the time the game was postponed. I won’t find out how the game would have been graded as I lost a different leg.
I’m getting like no Rewards Credits on Caesars now. No way I make Diamond for next year. I also think I’m getting way less Draft Kings crowns as well. I guess someone figured out that giving me that stuff is not cost effective.
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There was a period when DK was giving out the world but now they’re much more cheap. I’m getting some offer where I’ll get 5k bonus if I deposit 5k. I’d very much like to avoid the rigged blackjack so it would take 1.5 MILLION through in VP to earn it. I’m quite sure I’d lose all 10k doing this
There is no pure hedge available. You can get under 8.5 at around even money. So exactly 9 K’s would take out both. He’s had exactly 9 a bunch of times.
I had some big parlay on Women’s WC. Barely awake when FIRST ‘easy’ leg lost as New Zealand upset Norway.
Golf…. DK gives me 18% profit boost but only on $5 so probably not even +EV. So tuned in and saw this guy Lamprecht started with a few birdies. I got around 170-1 on him to win. He’s tied for the lead at 5 under after his round is completed. Vegas not that impressed as he is still 90-1.
My bet won. +$160. But I misread it…. It was a parlay for Strider over 9.5 K’s /Braves win. When I made the bet I thought it was just an over 9.5 K’s bet. No wonder the odds were so long. I think I would have still made the bet.
Braves were down 2 runs in the 8th inning….!
Made a few $ today on British Open. With around 5 or 6 holes to go Harman was ahead comfortably by 5 or 6. There is a bet ‘winner not including Rahm, McIlroy, or Scheffler’. Rahm at the time looked like had a small chance. McIlroy even smaller, and no one else seemed like a real threat. I assumed the bet would be closed, but they let me bet on Harman -1000. He won by 6 I think. I think at the moment I made the bet he certainly had a greater than 90% chance of winning.
Quote: SOOPOOLooks like MGM has a+EV bet today. Mets ML/over 8.5 at +300. Fair over under is at 10.5, and Mets are slight underdog. Maybe fair payout would be +240 or so? I parlayed the outcomes on BetRivers and it was +188.
Made a few $ today on British Open. With around 5 or 6 holes to go Harman was ahead comfortably by 5 or 6. There is a bet ‘winner not including Rahm, McIlroy, or Scheffler’. Rahm at the time looked like had a small chance. McIlroy even smaller, and no one else seemed like a real threat. I assumed the bet would be closed, but they let me bet on Harman -1000. He won by 6 I think. I think at the moment I made the bet he certainly had a greater than 90% chance of winning.
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If he was only 90% it would be slightly negative EV but I know what you mean.
. True. I guesstimated it was closer to 100% than 90%. If you are a golf fan, I was just worrying about a ‘Jean Vandevelde’. I also want to remind you I’m not doing this for any significant money. I won a Starbucks on that bet……But it would have stung a bit had I lost!Quote: unJonQuote: SOOPOOLooks like MGM has a+EV bet today. Mets ML/over 8.5 at +300. Fair over under is at 10.5, and Mets are slight underdog. Maybe fair payout would be +240 or so? I parlayed the outcomes on BetRivers and it was +188.
Made a few $ today on British Open. With around 5 or 6 holes to go Harman was ahead comfortably by 5 or 6. There is a bet ‘winner not including Rahm, McIlroy, or Scheffler’. Rahm at the time looked like had a small chance. McIlroy even smaller, and no one else seemed like a real threat. I assumed the bet would be closed, but they let me bet on Harman -1000. He won by 6 I think. I think at the moment I made the bet he certainly had a greater than 90% chance of winning.
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If he was only 90% it would be slightly negative EV but I know what you mean.
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Today bet MGM has a Lions Boost that is so bad I think they made a mistake, or are doing it on purpose as an experiment to see if there are some people who will bet on it just because they have it as a ‘Lions Boost’. They have 3 separate players getting a hit ‘boosted’ to +125. I just did it on FD not boosted and it came to +175. Fair odds likely +225-250.
I have no idea what the slots look like at DK in your state, but I can make this bonus work out +EV doing the PTR on slots. I never do the PTR on BJ or VP.Quote: PenguinsOfPitThere was a period when DK was giving out the world but now they’re much more cheap. I’m getting some offer where I’ll get 5k bonus if I deposit 5k. I’d very much like to avoid the rigged blackjack so it would take 1.5 MILLION through in VP to earn it. I’m quite sure I’d lose all 10k doing this
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Quote: MentalI have no idea what the slots look like at DK in your state, but I can make this bonus work out +EV doing the PTR on slots. I never do the PTR on BJ or VP.Quote: PenguinsOfPitThere was a period when DK was giving out the world but now they’re much more cheap. I’m getting some offer where I’ll get 5k bonus if I deposit 5k. I’d very much like to avoid the rigged blackjack so it would take 1.5 MILLION through in VP to earn it. I’m quite sure I’d lose all 10k doing this
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Sorry if I sound newb but what’s PTR?
Quote: PenguinsOfPitQuote: MentalI have no idea what the slots look like at DK in your state, but I can make this bonus work out +EV doing the PTR on slots. I never do the PTR on BJ or VP.Quote: PenguinsOfPitThere was a period when DK was giving out the world but now they’re much more cheap. I’m getting some offer where I’ll get 5k bonus if I deposit 5k. I’d very much like to avoid the rigged blackjack so it would take 1.5 MILLION through in VP to earn it. I’m quite sure I’d lose all 10k doing this
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Sorry if I sound newb but what’s PTR?
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Play through requirement. It may make what seems like a good offer not so good.
PTR: Play through requirement.Quote: PenguinsOfPitQuote: MentalI have no idea what the slots look like at DK in your state, but I can make this bonus work out +EV doing the PTR on slots. I never do the PTR on BJ or VP.Quote: PenguinsOfPitThere was a period when DK was giving out the world but now they’re much more cheap. I’m getting some offer where I’ll get 5k bonus if I deposit 5k. I’d very much like to avoid the rigged blackjack so it would take 1.5 MILLION through in VP to earn it. I’m quite sure I’d lose all 10k doing this
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Sorry if I sound newb but what’s PTR?
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The terminology is not standard throughout the industry. Other casinos use WR: Wagering Requirement.
DK uses 'Turnover Requirement' in some instances, but also says "Congratulations, you have successfully deposited and received your Casino Bonus! Your deposit amount plus the bonus amount are subject to a 15x play-through requirement and expires 7 days after the day of your deposit."
The 15x PTR is really a 30x PTR if it is calculated on the deposit plus bonus. If you play a 97% RTP (return to player) slot, you would theoretically lose 90% of the bonus value after you finished the PTR. If your best slots have RTPs worse than this, you should forget about playing through on slots. I often just set auto-play on slots and walk away and do something useful. You can't do that on BJ or VP.
Quote: SOOPOOMy BetRivers soccer bet today is Ireland over Canada. I have been betting under, but before I got the bet in Ireland scored an early goal. So got Ireland at +155. As I was typing this Ireland scored a second goal! Unfortunately for me into their own net…. Oh well…..
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I don't know why but for some reason I have a feeling the Netherlands might just compete with USA in the women's match tonight.
Quote: MentalPTR: Play through requirement.Quote: PenguinsOfPitQuote: MentalI have no idea what the slots look like at DK in your state, but I can make this bonus work out +EV doing the PTR on slots. I never do the PTR on BJ or VP.Quote: PenguinsOfPitThere was a period when DK was giving out the world but now they’re much more cheap. I’m getting some offer where I’ll get 5k bonus if I deposit 5k. I’d very much like to avoid the rigged blackjack so it would take 1.5 MILLION through in VP to earn it. I’m quite sure I’d lose all 10k doing this
link to original post
link to original post
Sorry if I sound newb but what’s PTR?
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The terminology is not standard throughout the industry. Other casinos use WR: Wagering Requirement.
DK uses 'Turnover Requirement' in some instances, but also says "Congratulations, you have successfully deposited and received your Casino Bonus! Your deposit amount plus the bonus amount are subject to a 15x play-through requirement and expires 7 days after the day of your deposit."
The 15x PTR is really a 30x PTR if it is calculated on the deposit plus bonus. If you play a 97% RTP (return to player) slot, you would theoretically lose 90% of the bonus value after you finished the PTR. If your best slots have RTPs worse than this, you should forget about playing through on slots. I often just set auto-play on slots and walk away and do something useful. You can't do that on BJ or VP.
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If you check the T&C on that offer for VP you’ll notice it only counts as 10% of the 15x. So yeah you’ll need to do 150x basically
Quote: PenguinsOfPitIf you check the T&C on that offer for VP you’ll notice it only counts as 10% of the 15x. So yeah you’ll need to do 150x basically
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Actually, 300X the bonus if the 15X is calculated on the bonus + deposit.
DK also has a list of high RPT slots that cannot be used for PTR. I was still doing PTR with a 97.99% RTP slot two years ago. Those were the good old days. DK and other casinos have either removed this game entirely or put it on a PTR blacklist. Online casinos are definitely getting smarter about their bonuses, so you have to up your game. I did a 10x PTR on a 96.3% slot last week. It took me an hour to find a slot game that good. Most slots were 95% RTP or worse.
Quote: DRichQuote: SOOPOOMy BetRivers soccer bet today is Ireland over Canada. I have been betting under, but before I got the bet in Ireland scored an early goal. So got Ireland at +155. As I was typing this Ireland scored a second goal! Unfortunately for me into their own net…. Oh well…..
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I don't know why but for some reason I have a feeling the Netherlands might just compete with USA in the women's match tonight.
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I took DraftKings even money boost for USA to win so hopefully not
Quote: MentalQuote: PenguinsOfPitIf you check the T&C on that offer for VP you’ll notice it only counts as 10% of the 15x. So yeah you’ll need to do 150x basically
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Actually, 300X the bonus if the 15X is calculated on the bonus + deposit.
DK also has a list of high RPT slots that cannot be used for PTR. I was still doing PTR with a 97.99% RTP slot two years ago. Those were the good old days. DK and other casinos have either removed this game entirely or put it on a PTR blacklist. Online casinos are definitely getting smarter about their bonuses, so you have to up your game. I did a 10x PTR on a 96.3% slot last week. It took me an hour to find a slot game that good. Most slots were 95% RTP or worse.
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That’s awful. The deposit bonus for me is pretty decent SOMETIMES on DK. The other day I got a 15% bonus with a max of 500 in credits. I put in 3333 and didn’t need to even use the cash just run through the credits and cash out. I’m onyx though so perks I guess
Quote: DRichQuote: SOOPOOMy BetRivers soccer bet today is Ireland over Canada. I have been betting under, but before I got the bet in Ireland scored an early goal. So got Ireland at +155. As I was typing this Ireland scored a second goal! Unfortunately for me into their own net…. Oh well…..
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I don't know why but for some reason I have a feeling the Netherlands might just compete with USA in the women's match tonight.
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They are only minor underdogs. Would only be a mild upset if USA loses. For whatever reason I have a bunch of different bets on the USA to win. More corners. More SOG. First goal. Different specific goal scorers. They probably lose 1-0….. if by some chance they win and score at least 3 I make book….
BR continues to have great daily offers. Tons of free bet offers, some just for making a slightly -EV bet. It’s now my best +EV book.
Caesars is now my least useful site. Getting very few +EV offers, and earning pennies a day in Rewards Credits. Oh well.
BetMGM has had some really pathetic ‘Lion’s Boosts’ recently. A parlay was ‘boosted’ to +500. Just entered the parlay on a different site and it was +600! I’m sure it was -EV at +600.
FD still has occasional,+EV boosts, but certainly not all of them. I keep winning a dollar or two on their ‘free to play games’. Hip hip hooray.
Although still winning, certainly much less than last year. Can’t pay my bills on a 20% advantage when I’m limited to a $5 bet!
Quote: SOOPOO
Can’t pay my bills on a 20% advantage when I’m limited to a $5 bet!
Easy answer, just lower your expenditures.
Next time I bitch about some bad break remind me…
BetRivers keeps adding free bets for betting live action. They added NFL pre season. I think it is now my best +EV book.
Abrams has THREE hits in his last NINE games and only had an RBI in one of them.
I’ll be betting $1 to keep it in mind.
I’m a tad sad that Women’s World Cup is over. Today my live bet was under 2.5 goals, and once it was 1-0 I checked in to use my free bet I just earned. So I took big + odds on ‘final score 1-0’ with about 60 minutes to go. Both hit.
Lately I've gotten into the situation I like best, which is the +EV betting that has the promise of repeating. If something is +EV , but just a one time thing, seems like you are just asking for bad luck to kick in. But if it is a repeating offer, your bad luck will just mean streaks of such, while if it's truly +EV, you will find that really doesn't matter. Maybe even makes it fun because you know you're going to come out ahead as it continues.
So this is going on [second-chance type offers] and I settled in on the kind of bets I like; those need to pay better than even [betting the other way doesn't work] ... and it turns out I love them around +150, which can be stated as paying 3:2. Well. Coming out ahead on those was a piece of cake. I need to go with riskier bets, as these make the offer better while making it streakier.
I had to take a look at this. 3:2 means chances of underdog winning are 2/5 [40%] with fair odds. Since the worst I would expect the house edge to be is around 10%, this would mean the oddsmaker is figuring your real chances of winning are 36% [hopefully at worst]. I can show my work if you want, but I’ll warn you I had to resort to trial and error!!*
I wanted to know the standard deviation, call it sigma, and I’ve come across the formula…
and that does seem to work with known answers. …. andQuote:Sigma is SQRT [prob win times prob loss] times [amnt won incl ret bet/bet]
sqrt(0.64*0.36) * [250/100] =1.2
that it would be so low a sigma was a great surprise to me. No wonder I’m finding it a piece of cake. Now I have to find the nuggets to search for the +200 and higher range bets …. it really is pretty clear this makes total sense to do, but I keep balking!
* oh well that’s how they taught us how to do math when I was coming up …. long division and square root, that was all trial and error on the blackboard. Well, later they threw logarithms at us and indicated that was magic they actually didn't know anything about. Not kidding.
Quote: SOOPOOSo some guy screamed at a golfer mid putt in an effort to distract him into missing the putt at the PGA event this last weekend. Supposedly the drunk yelling fan had bet $3 that would be a winner if the golfer missed the putt. Assuming the facts are not in dispute, did the fan commit a crime, or just an AP move?
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AP move.
Quote: SOOPOOThe NCAA football offers are rolling in. Some need faves. Some dogs. Some parlays. Some point spreads. I’d guess my selection rate on ‘even money’ bets ranges between 48 and 49%. So I’m hiring DRich to post his picks and I’ll try and use them when I can. No, I’m not actually paying DRich. I already had to pick a National Champ and went chalk with Georgia.
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You are a smart man. I wouldn't pay for my picks either.
Quote: DRichQuote: SOOPOOThe NCAA football offers are rolling in. Some need faves. Some dogs. Some parlays. Some point spreads. I’d guess my selection rate on ‘even money’ bets ranges between 48 and 49%. So I’m hiring DRich to post his picks and I’ll try and use them when I can. No, I’m not actually paying DRich. I already had to pick a National Champ and went chalk with Georgia.
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You are a smart man. I wouldn't pay for my picks either.
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Put a three team parlay out there. ML or pointspread or O/U. There are some minimum odds requirements but let me see what you got!
I’ve combined offers for basically a free roll on Mexico -Montenegro BBall game. Come out even on ALL results except if Montenegro wins by exactly 9. Then I win $$$.
I’m guessing few other forum members will care about the big Mexico Montenegro game. I have been to both countries and really liked Montenegro. I guess I liked Mexico too.
Montenegro 75. Mexico 66.
Lions boost was ND -9.5 first quarter. Already hit! Was +250.
Here are some other bets I have.
USC to score at least 50. (+120)
ND/Vandy/LaTech/NC st. (All faves, still laying small odds)(-140)
UTEP/N Mex St/ USC -31.5. (+540)
ND -20.5/under 49.5. (+640)
SDSt/ N Mex St/Vandy/Mich St. (+220)
Quote: SOOPOODRich is fired. He didn’t give me picks so I had to do it myself.
Lions boost was ND -9.5 first quarter. Already hit! Was +250.
Here are some other bets I have.
USC to score at least 50. (+120)
ND/Vandy/LaTech/NC st. (All faves, still laying small odds)(-140)
UTEP/N Mex St/ USC -31.5. (+540)
ND -20.5/under 49.5. (+640)
SDSt/ N Mex St/Vandy/Mich St. (+220)
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Sorry, when there is college football on I tend to not be on these forums as often.
I will be rooting for Ohio but I would be betting San Diego St. I will be happy if my picks go 50% the first week of college football.
been doing well lately picking o/u on MLB - maybe just luck - anyway
today's picks - only gonna post just one day - I'm lazy - glta - here we go:
Angels O 9
Nationals U 8.5
Red Sox O 10.5
Rangers U 8.5
Twins O 7.5
Padres U 9
Brewers O 8
Rockies O 12.5
Reds U 8.5
Dodgers O 8.5
.
tanked 4-6
c'est la vie
.
Florida vs Utah -4 o43.5 ( I would probably lay the points and take the over)
Nebraska vs Minnesota -7 o43 (probably a small lean to the under for me)
Quote: DRichTwo good college games tomorrow
Florida vs Utah -4 o43.5 ( I would probably lay the points and take the over)
Nebraska vs Minnesota -7 o43 (probably a small lean to the under for me)
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Holy cow. I had to make a college bet for a promo a few days ago and got Florida +7! That is a HUGE line swing since then.
I had accumulated a whole bunch of free bets from BetRivers. I had my wife pick two pointspread line picks on NFL opening weekend and parlay them. So I think 7 two team parlay bets. She picks mostly favorites as the points concern her less than which team is better. So……. let’s start with Go Chiefs -6.5.
I’m going to be taking U.S.A. in the FIBA thing. They seem to still play hard even when up 30+. Had an easy cover over Jordan this morning.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: DRichTwo good college games tomorrow
Florida vs Utah -4 o43.5 ( I would probably lay the points and take the over)
Nebraska vs Minnesota -7 o43 (probably a small lean to the under for me)
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Holy cow. I had to make a college bet for a promo a few days ago and got Florida +7! That is a HUGE line swing since then.
I had accumulated a whole bunch of free bets from BetRivers. I had my wife pick two pointspread line picks on NFL opening weekend and parlay them. So I think 7 two team parlay bets. She picks mostly favorites as the points concern her less than which team is better. So……. let’s start with Go Chiefs -6.5.
I’m going to be taking U.S.A. in the FIBA thing. They seem to still play hard even when up 30+. Had an easy cover over Jordan this morning.
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I think it probably went down because the Utah QB is now questionable.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: DRichTwo good college games tomorrow
Florida vs Utah -4 o43.5 ( I would probably lay the points and take the over)
Nebraska vs Minnesota -7 o43 (probably a small lean to the under for me)
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Holy cow. I had to make a college bet for a promo a few days ago and got Florida +7! That is a HUGE line swing since then.
I had accumulated a whole bunch of free bets from BetRivers. I had my wife pick two pointspread line picks on NFL opening weekend and parlay them. So I think 7 two team parlay bets. She picks mostly favorites as the points concern her less than which team is better. So……. let’s start with Go Chiefs -6.5.
I’m going to be taking U.S.A. in the FIBA thing. They seem to still play hard even when up 30+. Had an easy cover over Jordan this morning.
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Apparently Utah opened as a 9.5 favorite.
brand new Ncaaf rules - no stoppage of the clock after a first down except in the last 2 minutes of the first half and the game
the NCAA estimates there will be 7 or 8 fewer plays per game
might help the unders
still some very high totals out there - may not have been factored in correctly - not sure about this
picking under a very high total
am picking USF/WKU U 71 for tomorrow
USF went under that total 6-5-1 last year
WKU went under that total 13-1 last year
.
Quote: lilredrooster.
brand new Ncaaf rules - no stoppage of the clock after a first down except in the last 2 minutes of the first half and the game
the NCAA estimates there will be 7 or 8 fewer plays per game
might help the unders
still some very high totals out there - may not have been factored in correctly - not sure about this
picking under a very high total
am picking USF/WKU U 71 for tomorrow
USF went under that total 6-5-1 last year
WKU went under that total 13-1 last year
.
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I like your thinking. I hate the new rule. I figured the NCAA liked higher scoring.
Did very well last night. Was only wrong on the Florida game. Best games were Minnesota winning by 3 as had them ML but Nebraska +7.5 on parlays. Same thing with NC St versus UConn. Almost hit a big MLB parlay. Had 9/10 only missing a hit by Matt Olson….
Quote: SOOPOO
Did very well last night. Was only wrong on the Florida game.
See what happens when you go against me. :)
I would be willing to bet any amount that Miami wins tonight.
Quote: DRichThe Iowa Hawkeyes that had the 129th rated offense out of 130 teams is favored by 23.5 points today. I know it is week one but there is no way I would lay 23.5 with Iowa.
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Good call. I did it differently, with under 43. Both were winners.
Big loss for me was Colorado upsetting TCU. Colorado seems like the real deal. I expected Colorado to struggle….. Under new coach Prime Time. His son threw for over 500 yards. A team to watch!
If I type it maybe I’ll remember …. Michigan St was underwhelming against Central Michigan. I gotta bet against them next week…..
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: DRichThe Iowa Hawkeyes that had the 129th rated offense out of 130 teams is favored by 23.5 points today. I know it is week one but there is no way I would lay 23.5 with Iowa.
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Good call. I did it differently, with under 43. Both were winners.
Big loss for me was Colorado upsetting TCU. Colorado seems like the real deal. I expected Colorado to struggle….. Under new coach Prime Time. His son threw for over 500 yards. A team to watch!
If I type it maybe I’ll remember …. Michigan St was underwhelming against Central Michigan. I gotta bet against them next week…..
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That Colorado TCU game was fun to watch. Everybody expected Colorado to struggle hence they were 21 point underdogs.
the first 2 days of NCAAF results I counted the overs winning going 47-41-2
based on this, although not enough games to be decisive, I think it's pretty clear that taking the Under because of the new rules is not a great strategy
either it's been factored into the totals or the teams have somehow adjusted
not sure which
.
Baylor loses as a 27 point favorite
TCU loses as a 21 point favorite
Texas tech loses as a 14 point favorite
That would have been a great moneyline parlay
I've now tracked 3 years of NFL pre-season dogs - each year the dogs have been profitable
there is a great deal of unpredictability in the pre-season and I believe this favors the dogs since they are getting points
I think it's a pretty fair statement to make that as far as the pre-season goes - the betting public really doesn't have a clue
I don't even think they know what % of the game the teams will play their starters - and as far as predicting the performance of the 2nd string - no chance at all to do that effectively - forget about it
there were some amusing results:
week 1 Carolina was favored by 3 points over the Jets - they lost 27-0
the 49ers were favored by 4 over the Raiders - they lost 34-7
in week 2 the Texans were favored by 2 over the Marlins - they lost 28-3__________________(-:\
.
I can't always do the math. For the offer 'bet X and get 0.5X back immediately win or lose, however only get the winnings on the second bet' is actually easy [I hope] since you just add the EV of the two bets together.
However, though I know it's +EV since the Wizard said so, and I'm seeing it pay off, I am also using the offers where the second chance depends on if the first bet loses [and you get only the winnings of the same size wager] ... I have trouble doing the math on that.
So I am currently trying to see if Chatgpt can teach me
Look at this remarkable exchange so far on the simple matter of a bet against a house edge.
Quote:me:If I have an offer to win or lose a $100 wager based on probability 40% winning and paying 6:5 . Would this be a favorable bet?
To determine whether this is a favorable bet, you can calculate the expected value (EV) based on the information provided:
Winning: You have a 40% chance of winning, and the payout is 6:5. This means you receive 6/5 times your original wager as winnings. So, if you win, you get:
(6/5) * $100 = $120
Losing: You have a 60% chance of losing, which means you lose your original wager of $100.
Now, calculate the expected value:
EV = (Probability of Winning * Amount Won) + (Probability of Losing * Amount Lost)
EV = (0.40 * $120) + (0.60 * $100)
EV = $48 + $60
EV = $108
So, the expected value of this bet is $108. Since the expected value is positive ($108), this would be considered a favorable bet. Over the long run, you can expect to make an average profit of $108 for each $100 wagered.
However, keep in mind that this analysis assumes that the probabilities and rules you provided are accurate. Gambling involves risk, and outcomes can vary in the short term. It's essential to gamble responsibly and understand that even favorable bets can result in losses due to the inherent randomness involved in gambling.
ME: you've made a mistake. You said Probability of Winning * Amount Won) + (Probability of Losing * Amount Lost while it is correctly instead Probability of Winning * Amount Won) - (Probability of Losing * Amount Lost
You are absolutely correct, and I apologize for the mistake in my previous responses. The correct formula for calculating the expected value (EV) should indeed be:
EV = (Probability of Winning * Amount Won) - (Probability of Losing * Amount Lost)
Let's recalculate the EV for the bet:
Winning: You have a 40% chance of winning, and the payout is 6:5. This means you receive 6/5 times your original wager as winnings. So, if you win, you get:
(6/5) * $100 = $120
Losing: You have a 60% chance of losing, which means you lose your original wager of $100.
Now, calculate the expected value correctly:
EV = (0.40 * $120) - (0.60 * $100)
EV = $48 - $60
EV = -$12
I appreciate your patience and correction. The corrected expected value for this bet is -$12, which means that, on average, you can expect to lose $12 for each $100 wagered. Therefore, this is not a favorable bet, and over the long run, you are expected to incur losses.
I simply can't believe I corrected this robot and it acknowledged the error! This was just a trial for a simple thing, not what I was trying to find out
to be continued?
