Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown 2022
May 3rd, 2022 at 2:43:46 AM
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I'm torn between the top 2 per the morning line - Zandon and Epicenter
both have superstar jocks and jockey skill is critical in this race
Epicenter has won both as a frontrunner and coming off the pace
in the Risen Star stakes the chart writer (and they are stingy with very positive comments) described his stretch performance as "glided away"
he could be a monster
but I'm going to go with Zandon - a closer
he was 10th after a half mile in the Blue Grass stakes and he rallied to win - he made a powerful move deep in the stretch
it looked to me like he lengthened his stride near the finish line - amazing - I don't think I've ever seen that before
the downside - a closer running far back for much of the race increases the chance that he will get bumped, blocked or forced very wide on the turns
his jock, Flavien Pratt, is truly great, and should help with that issue
the upside - he definitely likes running late - and the race is all but sure to be won by a horse running well late - it's a long race, longer than any of them have ever run
I will bet Zandon across the board - I will bet much more to show so I will still have a profit if he fails to get 2nd or the win
I'm going to stay away from the exotics in a race like this - so very tough with 20 horses in the field - I'm not knocking them
a pretty fair chance that an improving shot will get 2nd or 3rd or both - which one? - you got me - I can't say
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✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔_________________________★ ★ ★ ★ ★
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here is the Daily Racing Form's breakdown of the race:
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https://www.drf.com/derby-watch
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I'm torn between the top 2 per the morning line - Zandon and Epicenter
both have superstar jocks and jockey skill is critical in this race
Epicenter has won both as a frontrunner and coming off the pace
in the Risen Star stakes the chart writer (and they are stingy with very positive comments) described his stretch performance as "glided away"
he could be a monster
but I'm going to go with Zandon - a closer
he was 10th after a half mile in the Blue Grass stakes and he rallied to win - he made a powerful move deep in the stretch
it looked to me like he lengthened his stride near the finish line - amazing - I don't think I've ever seen that before
the downside - a closer running far back for much of the race increases the chance that he will get bumped, blocked or forced very wide on the turns
his jock, Flavien Pratt, is truly great, and should help with that issue
the upside - he definitely likes running late - and the race is all but sure to be won by a horse running well late - it's a long race, longer than any of them have ever run
I will bet Zandon across the board - I will bet much more to show so I will still have a profit if he fails to get 2nd or the win
I'm going to stay away from the exotics in a race like this - so very tough with 20 horses in the field - I'm not knocking them
a pretty fair chance that an improving shot will get 2nd or 3rd or both - which one? - you got me - I can't say
.
✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔_________________________★ ★ ★ ★ ★
.
here is the Daily Racing Form's breakdown of the race:
.
https://www.drf.com/derby-watch
.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 3, 2022
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 3rd, 2022 at 1:13:32 PM
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the best promos that I found are these - for new customers only - these are all legal U.S. racebooks - legal in most states
before signing up all should be checked for exact terms and conditions with a phone call
some may exclude show bets, some require your deposited money to be wagered within a certain period of time
all of them, I believe, require that you wager your deposit before getting the match
drf.com________ $250 deposit match
nyrabets.com__________________$200 deposit match
tvg.com____________________________________________$200 deposit match - match only served up after $200 bet - win bets only
amwager.com__________$150 deposit match
✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔__________________★ ★ ★ ★ ★
.
the best promos that I found are these - for new customers only - these are all legal U.S. racebooks - legal in most states
before signing up all should be checked for exact terms and conditions with a phone call
some may exclude show bets, some require your deposited money to be wagered within a certain period of time
all of them, I believe, require that you wager your deposit before getting the match
drf.com________ $250 deposit match
nyrabets.com__________________$200 deposit match
tvg.com____________________________________________$200 deposit match - match only served up after $200 bet - win bets only
amwager.com__________$150 deposit match
✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔__________________★ ★ ★ ★ ★
.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 3rd, 2022 at 1:14:59 PM
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Are you expecting a fast or slow paced Derby?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
May 3rd, 2022 at 1:26:35 PM
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Quote: unJonAre you expecting a fast or slow paced Derby?
link to original post
definitely a fast pace
these colts all have to be just 3 years old - none of them have a lot of experience
many don't know how to rate (pace themselves) and the jocks would have to pull hard on the reins to slow them down and they don't want to do that - so they let them go
many are green and have had only 2 or 3 races
many will be panting at the quarter pole and shortening stride and fading badly even before the stretch
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Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 3, 2022
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 3rd, 2022 at 7:18:36 PM
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Check out the horse beating Messier. rated and Closing.
May 4th, 2022 at 1:05:16 AM
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Quote: speedycrapCheck out the horse beating Messier. rated and Closing.
link to original post
you're 100% correct
Taiba, Mo Donegal, and White Abarrio are also very tough
this race won't be a cakewalk for the fave
an exacta box with Zandon, Epicenter, Taiba, Mo Donegal and White Abarrio is a good play imo
it won't generate a big return because a 5 horse box is costly but it should more than double your money if it hits - and it could pay much more depending on the actual odds which nobody knows right now
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 4th, 2022 at 7:51:14 AM
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Rooster. How would you bet $30? Knowing you get $15 to $30 back in free play.
May 4th, 2022 at 7:54:58 AM
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Quote: mosesRooster. How would you bet $30? Knowing you get $15 to $30 back in free play.
link to original post
I would bet a $1.00 5 horse exacta box which costs $20 on Epicenter, Zandon, Taiba, Mo Donegal, and White Abarrio
and I would bet $10 to show on Zandon
you're not going to come looking for me if it doesn't hit are you_________________(~:\
I've won a fair # of bets at the track but I've also lost quite a few
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 4th, 2022 at 8:17:44 AM
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I will only come looking for you if it hits. And that will be to buy you a beer.🤣
May 4th, 2022 at 9:05:14 AM
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Make sure you go to any Stations casino. bet $2 on show and hold on to the ticket. Then order your beer. Two at a time. Dont forget to tip the waitress.Quote: mosesI will only come looking for you if it hits. And that will be to buy you a beer.🤣
link to original post
May 4th, 2022 at 12:14:14 PM
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Monmouth Park will begin offering fixed odds wagering on horses on May 7
this is a radical change for racing as the industry struggles to compete with sports betting which has always offered this and is now available to millions more bettors due to the changes in wagering laws and regulations in many states
Monmouth's slogan will be "the odds that you bet are the odds that you get"
typical blues for a sharp horseplayer - he sees a horse that he correctly believes has value at 3/1
he bets it to win 2 minutes before posts - but then the big money sharps come in at post time and the horse goes off at 6/5
the value he saw and believed he had has disappeared
that cannot happen with fixed odds wagering - hopefully this will radically change the sport for the better
the racebook could potentially lose money operating this way - but it's not likely due to the large takeout in racing - much larger than sports betting - at least not if it's properly managed
but below is a story from Andrew Beyer, racing's greatest writer, about how a Las Vegas racebook got crushed by sharps when they tried this in 1993
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/sports/1993/04/07/after-a-few-hot-tips-cold-reality-dawns-on-bookmakers-at-sport-of-kings/5cb07343-8e7a-412e-afbc-1bb435c6a839/
https://paulickreport.com/horseplayers-category/monmouth-to-offer-fixed-odds-wagering-beginning-opening-day/
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Monmouth Park will begin offering fixed odds wagering on horses on May 7
this is a radical change for racing as the industry struggles to compete with sports betting which has always offered this and is now available to millions more bettors due to the changes in wagering laws and regulations in many states
Monmouth's slogan will be "the odds that you bet are the odds that you get"
typical blues for a sharp horseplayer - he sees a horse that he correctly believes has value at 3/1
he bets it to win 2 minutes before posts - but then the big money sharps come in at post time and the horse goes off at 6/5
the value he saw and believed he had has disappeared
that cannot happen with fixed odds wagering - hopefully this will radically change the sport for the better
the racebook could potentially lose money operating this way - but it's not likely due to the large takeout in racing - much larger than sports betting - at least not if it's properly managed
but below is a story from Andrew Beyer, racing's greatest writer, about how a Las Vegas racebook got crushed by sharps when they tried this in 1993
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/sports/1993/04/07/after-a-few-hot-tips-cold-reality-dawns-on-bookmakers-at-sport-of-kings/5cb07343-8e7a-412e-afbc-1bb435c6a839/
https://paulickreport.com/horseplayers-category/monmouth-to-offer-fixed-odds-wagering-beginning-opening-day/
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Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 4, 2022
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 4th, 2022 at 2:51:16 PM
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Isn’t fixed odds how tracks in other countries work? Australia maybe?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
May 4th, 2022 at 4:39:52 PM
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Quote: unJonIsn’t fixed odds how tracks in other countries work? Australia maybe?
link to original post
not that I'm aware of - I don't know much about foreign racing
when I have looked at it, it seemed really confusing
for me personally, it was like - why am I going to make something that's already very difficult more difficult
it just didn't make sense for me - but I know that Hong Kong racing has the biggest pools in the world and offers a great product
in 2021 $12.2 billion was bet on U.S. thoroughbred racing - that same year $136 billion was bet on Hong Kong racing
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 5th, 2022 at 10:40:37 AM
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Anyone got link to drf pp's
get second you pig
May 5th, 2022 at 11:26:05 AM
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Quote: unJonIsn’t fixed odds how tracks in other countries work? Australia maybe?
link to original post
You mean like the "betting ring" in England? You do get fixed odds in that when you make your bet, the odds on that bet are locked in, but the odds on a horse can change from moment to moment (i.e. the next bettor on that horse may get better or worse odds).
May 6th, 2022 at 2:20:21 AM
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below is Timeform's breakdown of the Derby
Timeform is highly respected by just about all who take the game seriously
under "Spotlight" are numbers representing a speed figure based on the horse's last 3 races
speed figures are a more accurate measure of a horse's velocity than are final times due to various reasons
this link provides free Past Performances from the Daily Racing Form__________________https://www.drf.com/formulator/pp-details/05-07-2022/CD/12/D/USA
the timeform image I uploaded didn't come out very clear
if you want you can see it more clearly by registering for a free account at timeform.us
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✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔_______________________________★ ★ ★ ★ ★
.
below is Timeform's breakdown of the Derby
Timeform is highly respected by just about all who take the game seriously
under "Spotlight" are numbers representing a speed figure based on the horse's last 3 races
speed figures are a more accurate measure of a horse's velocity than are final times due to various reasons
this link provides free Past Performances from the Daily Racing Form__________________https://www.drf.com/formulator/pp-details/05-07-2022/CD/12/D/USA
the timeform image I uploaded didn't come out very clear
if you want you can see it more clearly by registering for a free account at timeform.us
.
.
✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔_______________________________★ ★ ★ ★ ★
.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 6, 2022
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 6th, 2022 at 3:09:39 AM
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Quote: lilredrooster
it just didn't make sense for me - but I know that Hong Kong racing has the biggest pools in the world and offers a great product
in 2021 $12.2 billion was bet on U.S. thoroughbred racing - that same year $136 billion was bet on Hong Kong racing
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link to original post
If memory serves, pretty much all the (legal mercantile) gambling in Hong Kong is on the horses at HKJC. If you want more action than a pick six ticket, it's horses or get on a boat for an hour each way.
(Yes, I know there's a bridge now. I can easily believe that people would prefer an hour on a boat rather than dealing with a hybrid of the Mackinac bridge and the Lake Pontchartrain causeway, especially when Freddy does anything other than bask in the sun.)
It tends to concentrate the local action when people find it challenging to get money down anywhere else.
It's not like noted gambling mecca Montana where you can walk into a bar and find a dozen slot machines and a sports betting kiosk; there just isn't much convenient competition.
May the cards fall in your favor.
May 6th, 2022 at 5:01:25 AM
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Quote: unJonIsn’t fixed odds how tracks in other countries work? Australia maybe?
link to original post
I believe most countries do offer fixed odds on horse racing.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
May 6th, 2022 at 9:44:00 AM
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Churchill Downs is buying my local casino. I have no idea what that means. I'll find out later this year. I should establish a big winning streak before that happens though.
May 6th, 2022 at 4:51:14 PM
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Rooster: Does the rainy weather change your picks?
May 6th, 2022 at 5:17:31 PM
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I have the Oaks/Derby double going to Mo Donegal.
Which means Mo will not win :)
Which means Mo will not win :)
May 6th, 2022 at 5:23:32 PM
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My bad. Someone at the table said it was storming. Only 24% chance of rain.
May 7th, 2022 at 8:03:22 AM
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I have a small bet on Taiba across the board.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
May 7th, 2022 at 9:32:04 AM
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Looks like I'll be on Crown Pride. Good luck to all. Enjoy the day.
May 7th, 2022 at 10:23:13 AM
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I just bet ZANDON across the board.
1 unit to win.
2 units to place.
3 units to show.
1 unit to win.
2 units to place.
3 units to show.
May 7th, 2022 at 1:23:18 PM
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Made a bet on Epicenter.
Also Tri box Epicenter, Zandon, Smile Happy and Crown Pride
Also Tri box Epicenter, Zandon, Smile Happy and Crown Pride
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong
May 7th, 2022 at 1:45:37 PM
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My Dad is playing a Tri-Box. Epicenter, Zandon, Messier.
May 7th, 2022 at 4:03:02 PM
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All bets below are on Classic Causeway:
1) 400 @ 22/1, to finish in the top 3
2a) 55 @ 41/1 to win,
2b) 55 @ 13/2 to finish in the top 9.
3) 500 @ +121, vs Pioneer of Medina ("Horse with better finishing position")
Note: "2a) and 2b)", are a combined bet (otherwise I wouldn't have been able to get the "finish in the top 9" part of the bet).
1) 400 @ 22/1, to finish in the top 3
2a) 55 @ 41/1 to win,
2b) 55 @ 13/2 to finish in the top 9.
3) 500 @ +121, vs Pioneer of Medina ("Horse with better finishing position")
Note: "2a) and 2b)", are a combined bet (otherwise I wouldn't have been able to get the "finish in the top 9" part of the bet).
May 7th, 2022 at 4:12:42 PM
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I think MDawg probably won the trifecta. Lol
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
May 7th, 2022 at 4:19:20 PM
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______________
the trifecta paid $14,870 for a $1.00 bet
the superfecta paid________________________________$ 𝟯𝟮𝟭,𝟱𝟬𝟬________________for a $1.00 bet
whoa nellie
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the trifecta paid $14,870 for a $1.00 bet
the superfecta paid________________________________$ 𝟯𝟮𝟭,𝟱𝟬𝟬________________for a $1.00 bet
whoa nellie
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 7th, 2022 at 4:20:39 PM
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I turned a small profit.
I had Zandon across the board.
$20 to win.
$40 to place.
$60 to show.
Show paid $5.60.
Netted. $48 profit.
I had Zandon across the board.
$20 to win.
$40 to place.
$60 to show.
Show paid $5.60.
Netted. $48 profit.
May 7th, 2022 at 4:38:26 PM
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Quote: ksdjdjAll bets below are on Classic Causeway:
1) 400 @ 22/1, to finish in the top 3
2a) 55 @ 41/1 to win,
2b) 55 @ 13/2 to finish in the top 9.
3) 500 @ +121, vs Pioneer of Medina ("Horse with better finishing position")
Note: "2a) and 2b)", are a combined bet (otherwise I wouldn't have been able to get the "finish in the top 9" part of the bet).
link to original post
After all that, I made $95***
***: I don't think it came in the top 9, but will be happy to be wrong ( those bets aren't graded yet).
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Edit and update (about 1855, Pac Time):
Strike-through above, because the horse finished further back than 9th (like I thought).
Also for the winner, the biggest fixed odds for an "Australian^^^ betting site" was 300/1, and 50/1 to come in the top 3.
^^^: Out of the sites that I can bet with, at least.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on May 7, 2022
May 7th, 2022 at 6:02:53 PM
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The same person that bet the money line on St Peter vs Kentucky and Purdue Also bet $20 to win on Rich Strike today.
That messed up our Exacta. But show money on Zandon put me even. Plus $15 in free play. 🤣
That messed up our Exacta. But show money on Zandon put me even. Plus $15 in free play. 🤣
Last edited by: moses on May 7, 2022
May 8th, 2022 at 7:48:35 AM
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I didn't see a name I liked so saved $5 by not betting. I'm going to let it ride by not betting the Generals today.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
May 8th, 2022 at 9:10:56 AM
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Quote: billryanI didn't see a name I liked so saved $5 by not betting. I'm going to let it ride by not betting the Generals today.
link to original post
Good news, I don't think the Generals play today.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
May 8th, 2022 at 1:12:26 PM
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Pimlico racetrack has the honor of hosting the Preakness due to tradition
the track is a real dump - they only run 3 weeks in May because of the Preakness - they touch it up with paint before the Preakness
they'll be lucky if the plumbing doesn't fail
they keep this gigantic amount of land for racing because of the $$ the Preakness generates even though it's vacant more than 90% of the year
almost all of Maryland racing is done at Laurel
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Pimlico racetrack has the honor of hosting the Preakness due to tradition
the track is a real dump - they only run 3 weeks in May because of the Preakness - they touch it up with paint before the Preakness
they'll be lucky if the plumbing doesn't fail
they keep this gigantic amount of land for racing because of the $$ the Preakness generates even though it's vacant more than 90% of the year
almost all of Maryland racing is done at Laurel
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 8th, 2022 at 1:18:06 PM
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Quote: DRichQuote: billryanI didn't see a name I liked so saved $5 by not betting. I'm going to let it ride by not betting the Generals today.
link to original post
Good news, I don't think the Generals play today.
link to original post
I'm on a streak.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
May 8th, 2022 at 2:30:38 PM
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Quote: lilredroosterPimlico racetrack has the honor of hosting the Preakness due to tradition
the track is a real dump - they only run 3 weeks in May because of the Preakness - they touch it up with paint before the Preakness
they'll be lucky if the plumbing doesn't fail
they keep this gigantic amount of land for racing because of the $$ the Preakness generates even though it's vacant more than 90% of the year
almost all of Maryland racing is done at Laurel
There has been talk of moving the Preakness to Laurel for years.
For anyone who thinks it should remain at Pimlico because of "tradition," remind them what happened to the "tradition" of "Maryland, My Maryland."
May 8th, 2022 at 3:16:39 PM
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________________
Jim "Mattress Mack" Mcingvale, a furniture store owner, made and lost a $1.5 million win bet on Epicenter
it was a late bet that caused the odds to drop on Epicenter down to 4/1
last year he made and lost a $1.3 million dollar win bet on Essential Quality
at least he got a thrill this year. Essential Quality was never really a threat to win the race
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Jim "Mattress Mack" Mcingvale, a furniture store owner, made and lost a $1.5 million win bet on Epicenter
it was a late bet that caused the odds to drop on Epicenter down to 4/1
last year he made and lost a $1.3 million dollar win bet on Essential Quality
at least he got a thrill this year. Essential Quality was never really a threat to win the race
.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 8th, 2022 at 3:38:42 PM
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Quote: ThatDonGuy
For anyone who thinks it should remain at Pimlico because of "tradition," remind them what happened to the "tradition" of "Maryland, My Maryland."
link to original post
the funny thing about that song, (I'm a Marylander) that used to be sung at the Preakness is that it expresses support for the Confederacy
it referred to the Union as "northern scum" __________it referred to Lincoln as a "tyrant," "despot," and "vandal"
but Maryland was a border state and did not secede from the Union although there was some support for the Confederacy
50,000 Marylanders signed up to fight with only about 10% going to the Confederacy
sorry, to get far off topic, but it was brought up, and is pretty interesting to me
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 8th, 2022 at 5:53:50 PM
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Baltimore was a hotbed of Southern support, whereas the rest of the state favored the Union. Lee and his troops thought they'd be welcomed as conquering heroes when he went north in 1862 but was mostly met with hostility.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
May 9th, 2022 at 1:40:01 AM
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Quote: billryanBaltimore was a hotbed of Southern support, whereas the rest of the state favored the Union. Lee and his troops thought they'd be welcomed as conquering heroes when he went north in 1862 but was mostly met with hostility.
link to original post
however, Maryland was a slave state
throughout Maryland there were and still are tiny little black communities where land was given to African Americans as compensation for slavery
even in rich, white Chevy Chase - there is one street - Hawkins Lane - which for over 150 years has been all black
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 9th, 2022 at 5:53:34 AM
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Delaware was a slave state, as well. Yet both Maryland and Delaware raised many troops for the National cause. Newt Gringrich wrote a series of alternative history novels where southern-leaning Marylanders rise up during Lee's invasion, overthrow the Maryland legislature and join the Confederacy, effectively surrounding DC and putting the Capitol under siege.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
May 9th, 2022 at 2:43:06 PM
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many think the best horses in the nation are running in the Kentucky Derby
that's not correct - they are the best 3 year olds
generally speaking, they could not compete well with the top older horses
right now, the best horse in the nation imo is the 4 year old Life is Good
he did rather poorly in the Dubai Cup overseas - I give him a pass on that - the trip may have been very stressful
prior to that he won 5 out of 6 graded stakes races finishing 2nd in the other one
but the general public does not get very excited about even the most prestigious races for the older horses
the Breeders Cup may be the exception - but it still does not rate up their with the Derby
the Win, Place, Show pool in the last Breeders Cup was about $3 milion. in the Derby just run it was about $75 million
only the Triple Crown events really get their motors running
.
many think the best horses in the nation are running in the Kentucky Derby
that's not correct - they are the best 3 year olds
generally speaking, they could not compete well with the top older horses
right now, the best horse in the nation imo is the 4 year old Life is Good
he did rather poorly in the Dubai Cup overseas - I give him a pass on that - the trip may have been very stressful
prior to that he won 5 out of 6 graded stakes races finishing 2nd in the other one
but the general public does not get very excited about even the most prestigious races for the older horses
the Breeders Cup may be the exception - but it still does not rate up their with the Derby
the Win, Place, Show pool in the last Breeders Cup was about $3 milion. in the Derby just run it was about $75 million
only the Triple Crown events really get their motors running
.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 9th, 2022 at 5:21:11 PM
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Quote: lilredrooster_____________
many think the best horses in the nation are running in the Kentucky Derby
that's not correct - they are the best 3 year olds
generally speaking, they could not compete well with the top older horses
right now, the best horse in the nation imo is the 4 year old Life is Good
he did rather poorly in the Dubai Cup overseas - I give him a pass on that - the trip may have been very stressful
prior to that he won 5 out of 6 graded stakes races finishing 2nd in the other one
but the general public does not get very excited about even the most prestigious races for the older horses
the Breeders Cup may be the exception - but it still does not rate up their with the Derby
the Win, Place, Show pool in the last Breeders Cup was about $3 milion. in the Derby just run it was about $75 million
only the Triple Crown events really get their motors running
.
link to original post
I think a lot of that apathy is self-inflicted as few horses that capture the public imagination retire as soon as they get popular. I understand their potential at stud but I think racing would be better off with its champions actually running.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
May 10th, 2022 at 5:24:47 AM
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this is a post about jockey skill
jockey skill is sometimes underrated as a factor -
of course the sharps know that jockey skill is very important and usually it is correctly factored into the odds
but with a race like the Derby, with so much soft money being bet (those who only bet the Triple Crown races) this may not be the case
the top 2 jockeys in the nation are Irad Ortiz Jr., and Flavien Pratt
overall - based on thousands and thousands of races - the favorite will finish in the money (1st, 2nd or 3rd) - 67% of the time
someone seeing this might think - wow - if I just bet every fave to show I'll have a nice profit
unfortunately it's not that easy - faves usually pay less than even money to show and many times way less - such as $2.10 - a horrible payout on a $2.00 bet
incredibly, these top 2 jockeys have finished in the money 64 and 63% of the time this year
of course, they don't get the favorite in every race -
I just looked at Ortiz's last 30 races - he was only on the fave 9 times
the stats from these top 2 are so very, very impressive
jockey skill is not easy to see, but if a person takes the time to watch carefully an entire race from a great jock closely, it can really be appreciated
.
this is a post about jockey skill
jockey skill is sometimes underrated as a factor -
of course the sharps know that jockey skill is very important and usually it is correctly factored into the odds
but with a race like the Derby, with so much soft money being bet (those who only bet the Triple Crown races) this may not be the case
the top 2 jockeys in the nation are Irad Ortiz Jr., and Flavien Pratt
overall - based on thousands and thousands of races - the favorite will finish in the money (1st, 2nd or 3rd) - 67% of the time
someone seeing this might think - wow - if I just bet every fave to show I'll have a nice profit
unfortunately it's not that easy - faves usually pay less than even money to show and many times way less - such as $2.10 - a horrible payout on a $2.00 bet
incredibly, these top 2 jockeys have finished in the money 64 and 63% of the time this year
of course, they don't get the favorite in every race -
I just looked at Ortiz's last 30 races - he was only on the fave 9 times
the stats from these top 2 are so very, very impressive
jockey skill is not easy to see, but if a person takes the time to watch carefully an entire race from a great jock closely, it can really be appreciated
.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 12th, 2022 at 2:33:01 AM
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good news imo for bettors hoping to get some value from the top horses running in the Preakness
the great filly Secret Oath will try the boys
the crowd loves fillies in these races and she's likely to get plenty of play causing the odds on the other great ones to be higher than if she was not running
as great as she is, I don't believe she will be able to handle the Colts in this one
.
good news imo for bettors hoping to get some value from the top horses running in the Preakness
the great filly Secret Oath will try the boys
the crowd loves fillies in these races and she's likely to get plenty of play causing the odds on the other great ones to be higher than if she was not running
as great as she is, I don't believe she will be able to handle the Colts in this one
.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 12th, 2022 at 3:52:26 AM
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I'm on Early Voting (if he runs). And I can get a fair price.
May 13th, 2022 at 1:53:02 AM
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Rich Strike will not run in the Preakness___________kind of disappointing
his owner says that he doesn't want to push him too hard
the Triple Crown series is the exception - usually the top horses don't run with only 2 weeks off
usually they won't race again for at least 4 weeks
running every 2 weeks is for the cheap horses - the claimers
.
Rich Strike will not run in the Preakness___________kind of disappointing
his owner says that he doesn't want to push him too hard
the Triple Crown series is the exception - usually the top horses don't run with only 2 weeks off
usually they won't race again for at least 4 weeks
running every 2 weeks is for the cheap horses - the claimers
.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 13th, 2022 at 6:10:45 AM
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Quote: lilredrooster______________
Rich Strike will not run in the Preakness___________kind of disappointing
his owner says that he doesn't want to push him too hard
the Triple Crown series is the exception - usually the top horses don't run with only 2 weeks off
usually they won't race again for at least 4 weeks
running every 2 weeks is for the cheap horses - the claimers
.
link to original post
Ironically, Rich Strike was a claimer.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
