lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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Thanks for this post from:
ten2winmosescamapl
May 3rd, 2022 at 2:43:46 AM permalink
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I'm torn between the top 2 per the morning line - Zandon and Epicenter
both have superstar jocks and jockey skill is critical in this race
Epicenter has won both as a frontrunner and coming off the pace
in the Risen Star stakes the chart writer (and they are stingy with very positive comments) described his stretch performance as "glided away"
he could be a monster

but I'm going to go with Zandon - a closer
he was 10th after a half mile in the Blue Grass stakes and he rallied to win - he made a powerful move deep in the stretch
it looked to me like he lengthened his stride near the finish line - amazing - I don't think I've ever seen that before
the downside - a closer running far back for much of the race increases the chance that he will get bumped, blocked or forced very wide on the turns
his jock, Flavien Pratt, is truly great, and should help with that issue
the upside - he definitely likes running late - and the race is all but sure to be won by a horse running well late - it's a long race, longer than any of them have ever run

I will bet Zandon across the board - I will bet much more to show so I will still have a profit if he fails to get 2nd or the win

I'm going to stay away from the exotics in a race like this - so very tough with 20 horses in the field - I'm not knocking them

a pretty fair chance that an improving shot will get 2nd or 3rd or both - which one? - you got me - I can't say





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✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔_________________________★ ★ ★ ★ ★





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here is the Daily Racing Form's breakdown of the race:


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https://www.drf.com/derby-watch



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Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 3, 2022
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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May 3rd, 2022 at 1:13:32 PM permalink
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the best promos that I found are these - for new customers only - these are all legal U.S. racebooks - legal in most states
before signing up all should be checked for exact terms and conditions with a phone call
some may exclude show bets, some require your deposited money to be wagered within a certain period of time
all of them, I believe, require that you wager your deposit before getting the match




drf.com________ $250 deposit match

nyrabets.com__________________$200 deposit match

tvg.com____________________________________________$200 deposit match - match only served up after $200 bet - win bets only

amwager.com__________$150 deposit match






✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔__________________★ ★ ★ ★ ★



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"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
unJon
unJon 
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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May 3rd, 2022 at 1:14:59 PM permalink
Are you expecting a fast or slow paced Derby?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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May 3rd, 2022 at 1:26:35 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Are you expecting a fast or slow paced Derby?
link to original post




definitely a fast pace
these colts all have to be just 3 years old - none of them have a lot of experience
many don't know how to rate (pace themselves) and the jocks would have to pull hard on the reins to slow them down and they don't want to do that - so they let them go
many are green and have had only 2 or 3 races
many will be panting at the quarter pole and shortening stride and fading badly even before the stretch


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Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 3, 2022
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
speedycrap
speedycrap
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
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May 3rd, 2022 at 7:18:36 PM permalink
Check out the horse beating Messier. rated and Closing.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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May 4th, 2022 at 1:05:16 AM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

Check out the horse beating Messier. rated and Closing.
link to original post




you're 100% correct

Taiba, Mo Donegal, and White Abarrio are also very tough

this race won't be a cakewalk for the fave

an exacta box with Zandon, Epicenter, Taiba, Mo Donegal and White Abarrio is a good play imo

it won't generate a big return because a 5 horse box is costly but it should more than double your money if it hits - and it could pay much more depending on the actual odds which nobody knows right now


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"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
moses
moses
Joined: Sep 23, 2013
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May 4th, 2022 at 7:51:14 AM permalink
Rooster. How would you bet $30? Knowing you get $15 to $30 back in free play.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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Thanks for this post from:
camapl
May 4th, 2022 at 7:54:58 AM permalink
Quote: moses

Rooster. How would you bet $30? Knowing you get $15 to $30 back in free play.
link to original post




I would bet a $1.00 5 horse exacta box which costs $20 on Epicenter, Zandon, Taiba, Mo Donegal, and White Abarrio


and I would bet $10 to show on Zandon



you're not going to come looking for me if it doesn't hit are you_________________(~:\


I've won a fair # of bets at the track but I've also lost quite a few



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"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
moses
moses
Joined: Sep 23, 2013
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May 4th, 2022 at 8:17:44 AM permalink
I will only come looking for you if it hits. And that will be to buy you a beer.🤣
speedycrap
speedycrap
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
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May 4th, 2022 at 9:05:14 AM permalink
Quote: moses

I will only come looking for you if it hits. And that will be to buy you a beer.🤣
link to original post

Make sure you go to any Stations casino. bet $2 on show and hold on to the ticket. Then order your beer. Two at a time. Dont forget to tip the waitress.

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