lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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May 4th, 2022 at 12:14:14 PM permalink
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Monmouth Park will begin offering fixed odds wagering on horses on May 7

this is a radical change for racing as the industry struggles to compete with sports betting which has always offered this and is now available to millions more bettors due to the changes in wagering laws and regulations in many states

Monmouth's slogan will be "the odds that you bet are the odds that you get"

typical blues for a sharp horseplayer - he sees a horse that he correctly believes has value at 3/1

he bets it to win 2 minutes before posts - but then the big money sharps come in at post time and the horse goes off at 6/5

the value he saw and believed he had has disappeared

that cannot happen with fixed odds wagering - hopefully this will radically change the sport for the better

the racebook could potentially lose money operating this way - but it's not likely due to the large takeout in racing - much larger than sports betting - at least not if it's properly managed



but below is a story from Andrew Beyer, racing's greatest writer, about how a Las Vegas racebook got crushed by sharps when they tried this in 1993



https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/sports/1993/04/07/after-a-few-hot-tips-cold-reality-dawns-on-bookmakers-at-sport-of-kings/5cb07343-8e7a-412e-afbc-1bb435c6a839/



https://paulickreport.com/horseplayers-category/monmouth-to-offer-fixed-odds-wagering-beginning-opening-day/


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Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 4, 2022
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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May 4th, 2022 at 2:51:16 PM permalink
Isnít fixed odds how tracks in other countries work? Australia maybe?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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May 4th, 2022 at 4:39:52 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Isnít fixed odds how tracks in other countries work? Australia maybe?
link to original post




not that I'm aware of - I don't know much about foreign racing

when I have looked at it, it seemed really confusing

for me personally, it was like - why am I going to make something that's already very difficult more difficult

it just didn't make sense for me - but I know that Hong Kong racing has the biggest pools in the world and offers a great product

in 2021 $12.2 billion was bet on U.S. thoroughbred racing - that same year $136 billion was bet on Hong Kong racing


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"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
ontariodealer
ontariodealer
Joined: Aug 5, 2013
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May 5th, 2022 at 10:40:37 AM permalink
Anyone got link to drf pp's
get second you pig
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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May 5th, 2022 at 11:26:05 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Isnít fixed odds how tracks in other countries work? Australia maybe?
link to original post


You mean like the "betting ring" in England? You do get fixed odds in that when you make your bet, the odds on that bet are locked in, but the odds on a horse can change from moment to moment (i.e. the next bettor on that horse may get better or worse odds).
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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May 6th, 2022 at 2:20:21 AM permalink
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below is Timeform's breakdown of the Derby
Timeform is highly respected by just about all who take the game seriously
under "Spotlight" are numbers representing a speed figure based on the horse's last 3 races
speed figures are a more accurate measure of a horse's velocity than are final times due to various reasons


this link provides free Past Performances from the Daily Racing Form__________________https://www.drf.com/formulator/pp-details/05-07-2022/CD/12/D/USA


the timeform image I uploaded didn't come out very clear
if you want you can see it more clearly by registering for a free account at timeform.us


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✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔_______________________________★ ★ ★ ★ ★



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Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 6, 2022
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
Dieter
Administrator
Dieter
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May 6th, 2022 at 3:09:39 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster


it just didn't make sense for me - but I know that Hong Kong racing has the biggest pools in the world and offers a great product

in 2021 $12.2 billion was bet on U.S. thoroughbred racing - that same year $136 billion was bet on Hong Kong racing


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link to original post



If memory serves, pretty much all the (legal mercantile) gambling in Hong Kong is on the horses at HKJC. If you want more action than a pick six ticket, it's horses or get on a boat for an hour each way.
(Yes, I know there's a bridge now. I can easily believe that people would prefer an hour on a boat rather than dealing with a hybrid of the Mackinac bridge and the Lake Pontchartrain causeway, especially when Freddy does anything other than bask in the sun.)

It tends to concentrate the local action when people find it challenging to get money down anywhere else.
It's not like noted gambling mecca Montana where you can walk into a bar and find a dozen slot machines and a sports betting kiosk; there just isn't much convenient competition.
May the cards fall in your favor.
DRich
DRich
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May 6th, 2022 at 5:01:25 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Isnít fixed odds how tracks in other countries work? Australia maybe?
link to original post



I believe most countries do offer fixed odds on horse racing.
Order from chaos
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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May 6th, 2022 at 9:44:00 AM permalink
Churchill Downs is buying my local casino. I have no idea what that means. I'll find out later this year. I should establish a big winning streak before that happens though.
moses
moses
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May 6th, 2022 at 4:51:14 PM permalink
Rooster: Does the rainy weather change your picks?

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