Super Bowl LVI - Estimated Odds...
January 9th, 2022 at 9:24:32 PM
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Quote: ksdjdjMy total bet is now: $500 to win $9000 on the Raiders, to win by 3 points.
link to original post
Congratulations!!!
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 10th, 2022 at 2:45:24 AM
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| Team | "Raw" / Estimated Odds |
|---|---|
| Packers | $4.65 |
| Chiefs | $5.62 |
| Bills | $9.83 |
| Titans | $9.36 |
| Buccaneers | $9.33 |
| Rams | $15.9 |
| Cowboys | $14.2 |
| Bengals | $23.3 |
| 49ers | $30.5 |
| Patriots | $29.8 |
| Cardinals | $37.3 |
| Raiders | $89 |
| Steelers | $124 |
| Eagles | $119 |
Note: All odds above are posted in decimal odds.
Note 2: The "Estimated Odds" are my "attempts at posting an unbiased average using various sites"
Note 3: I will post at least one early and one late "game odds estimate" for each game.
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Early Game Odds Estimates - "Wild Card Week":
Raiders: ~$3.69 (+269)
Bengals: ~$1.37 (-269)
Note: Bengals between 68% and 79% estimated chance of winning
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Patriots: ~$2.96 (+196)
Bills: ~$1.51 (-196)
Note: Bills between 62% and 71% estimated chance of winning
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Eagles: ~$4.34 (+334)
Buccaneers: ~$1.30 (-334)
Note: Buccaneers between 73% and 80% estimated chance of winning
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49ers: ~$2.84 (+184)
Cowboys: ~$1.54 (-184)
Note: Cowboys between 59% and 73% estimated chance of winning
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Steelers: ~$5.88 (+488)
Chiefs: ~$1.20 (-488)
Note: Chiefs between 76% and 85% estimated chance of winning
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Cardinals: ~$2.82 (+182)
Rams: ~$1.55 (-182)
Note: Rams between 58% and 71% estimated chance of winning
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Early Game Bets :
$1050 to win $1000 on the Bengals @ -6.5
$1100 to win $1000 on the Patriots @ +4.5
$825 to win $750 on the Eagles @ +9.0
$1320 to win $1200 on the Cowboys @ -3.0
$1100 to win $1000 on the Steelers @ +13.0
$825 to win $750 on the Cardinals @ +4.5
Other Bets:
$1000 to win $14000 on Bengals to win by 3
$600 to win $10800 on Bengals to win by 7
$500 to win $9000 on the Patriots to win by 3
$1000 to win $16000 on the Bills to win by 3
$750 to win $10500 on the Bucs to win by 3
$600 to win $10800 on the Bucs to win by 7
$600 to win $13200 on the 49ers to win by 3
$900 to win $16200 on the Cowboys to win by 3
$900 to win $12600 on the Chiefs to win by 3
$600 to win $9600 on the Chiefs to win by 7
$400 to win $8800 on the Cardinals to win by 3
$750 to win $13500 on the Rams to win by 3
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 10, 2022
January 10th, 2022 at 5:24:37 AM
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Congrats Ksdjdj. 18-1 is a nice win for you and the Raiders. I really think that 18-1 was a bad number on Raiders winning by 3. This week that Cardinals at 22-1 to win by 3 also looks like a bad number to me.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
January 10th, 2022 at 7:01:58 AM
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Quote: DRichQuote: ksdjdj
2: $400 to win $7200 on the Raiders, to win by 3 points.
link to original post
I like that bet for Raiders to win by 3 at 18-1.
link to original post
(Whistles)
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
January 10th, 2022 at 7:02:34 AM
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Quote: ksdjdjQuote: ksdjdj(snip)
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Chargers(9-7): ~$1.76 (-132)
Raiders (9-7): $2.32 (+132)
1: $800 to win $8800 on the Chargers, to win by 2 or 3 points.
2: $400 to win $7200 on the Raiders, to win by 3 points.
link to original post
Had another bet on the Raiders, to win by 3 points.
My total bet is now: $500 to win $9000 on the Raiders, to win by 3 points.
link to original post
Nice! Congratualtions!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
January 13th, 2022 at 12:20:42 AM
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Deleted (Double Posted)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 13, 2022
January 13th, 2022 at 12:21:36 AM
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| Team To Win Super Bowl | Estimated Odds |
|---|---|
| Packers | $4.54 |
| Chiefs | $5.61 |
| Bills | $10.3 |
| Titans | $9.49 |
| Buccaneers | $8.98 |
| Rams | $16.2 |
| Cowboys | $14.5 |
| Bengals | $23.6 |
| 49ers | $31.4 |
| Patriots | $31.1 |
| Cardinals | $40.5 |
| Raiders | $97 |
| Steelers | $129 |
| Eagles | $128 |
Note: All odds above are posted in decimal odds.
Note 2: The "Estimated Odds" are my "attempts at posting an unbiased average using various sites"
Note 3: I will post at least one early and one late "game odds estimate" for each game.
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Game Odds for "Questionable QBs" (IN or OUT at the start of the game):
Jimmy Garoppolo IN = 49ers (+184) / Cowboys (-184)
Jimmy Garoppolo OUT = 49ers (+201) / Cowboys (-201)
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Ben Roethlisberger IN = Steelers (+488) / Chiefs (-488)
Ben Roethlisberger OUT = Steelers (+615) / Chiefs (-615)
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Matthew Stafford IN = Cards (+182) / Rams (-182)
Matthew Stafford OUT = Cards (-116) / Rams (+116)
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Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 13, 2022
January 13th, 2022 at 7:21:01 AM
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Stafford is a great QB, but I think that analysis is giving him too much value over replacement.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
January 13th, 2022 at 9:38:06 AM
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Quote: Mission146Stafford is a great QB, but I think that analysis is giving him too much value over replacement.
link to original post
Stafford is a choker.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
January 13th, 2022 at 9:44:55 AM
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Quote: unJonQuote: Mission146Stafford is a great QB, but I think that analysis is giving him too much value over replacement.
link to original post
Stafford is a choker.
link to original post
If that's true, then that's part of him being overvalued.
I disagree with that specific assessment, though. He's fifth all-time in fourth quarter comebacks...when all you ever do is play from behind, you're presented with enough opportunities for people to think you're a choker or a comeback magician.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
January 13th, 2022 at 9:48:15 AM
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Quote: Mission146Quote: unJonQuote: Mission146Stafford is a great QB, but I think that analysis is giving him too much value over replacement.
link to original post
Stafford is a choker.
link to original post
If that's true, then that's part of him being overvalued.
I disagree with that specific assessment, though. He's fifth all-time in fourth quarter comebacks...when all you ever do is play from behind, you're presented with enough opportunities for people to think you're a choker or a comeback magician.
link to original post
And 0-3 in the playoffs. Though again, Lions. So let’s see what happens.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
January 13th, 2022 at 1:30:05 PM
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Quote: unJon]
And 0-3 in the playoffs. Though again, Lions. So let’s see what happens.
link to original post
That is what I think. Give him three or more chances with a better team to determine.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
January 13th, 2022 at 3:23:18 PM
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I have Stafford around "league average" in the starting QB position.
Out of the teams that had a "Questionable QB" at the time of my previous post, I still think that the value I used for "In or Out" is close to correct (but it is just an opinion).
Also, the Cards @ Rams game looks likely to be the closest on paper (I have it as a "coin-flip" at a neutral site^^^).
^^^: I use 3 points during the regular season and 3.5 points during the playoffs for home field advantage (again just an opinion).
Lastly, below are my "full-strength raw chance" figures for the wild-card weekend (before I blend them into the public betting market, attempt to work out what the "smart punters" are betting on, and take important players out, etc).
Raiders / Bengals: 21 / 79%
Pats / Bills: 34 / 66 %
Eagles / Bucs: 26 / 74%
49ers / Cowboys: 27 / 73%
Steelers / Chiefs: 19 / 81%
Cards / Rams: 38 / 62%
Note: As stated above, I use 3.5 points for home field advantage (this is included in the above "raw chances").
Out of the teams that had a "Questionable QB" at the time of my previous post, I still think that the value I used for "In or Out" is close to correct (but it is just an opinion).
Also, the Cards @ Rams game looks likely to be the closest on paper (I have it as a "coin-flip" at a neutral site^^^).
^^^: I use 3 points during the regular season and 3.5 points during the playoffs for home field advantage (again just an opinion).
Lastly, below are my "full-strength raw chance" figures for the wild-card weekend (before I blend them into the public betting market, attempt to work out what the "smart punters" are betting on, and take important players out, etc).
Raiders / Bengals: 21 / 79%
Pats / Bills: 34 / 66 %
Eagles / Bucs: 26 / 74%
49ers / Cowboys: 27 / 73%
Steelers / Chiefs: 19 / 81%
Cards / Rams: 38 / 62%
Note: As stated above, I use 3.5 points for home field advantage (this is included in the above "raw chances").
January 13th, 2022 at 3:25:41 PM
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Anyone ever look at the old football betting “wisdom” of betting dogs on wildcard weekend and favorites on divisional round weekend?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
January 13th, 2022 at 4:12:54 PM
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Quote: unJonAnyone ever look at the old football betting “wisdom” of betting dogs on wildcard weekend and favorites on divisional round weekend?
link to original post
Probably not enough data to draw any conclusions.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
January 14th, 2022 at 1:03:53 PM
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Early Game Bets :
$1050 to win $1000 on the Bengals @ -6.5
$1100 to win $1000 on the Patriots @ +4.5
$825 to win $750 on the Eagles @ +9.0
$1320 to win $1200 on the Cowboys @ -3.0
$1100 to win $1000 on the Steelers @ +13.0
$825 to win $750 on the Cardinals @ +4.5
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Odds Estimate(s) Updates and Bets:
Raiders: ~$4.10 (+310)
Bengals: ~$1.32 (-310)
1: $6600 to win $3000 on the Bengals, money line.
2: $1100 to win $1000 on the Bengals @ -5 .
3: Any "early game bets" (see top of post).
Note: Was +269 / -269 Bengals, earlier in the week.
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Patriots: ~$3.75 (+275)
Bills: ~$1.36 (-275)
1: $6000 to win $3000 on the Bills, money line.
2: $2200 to win $2000 on the Bills @ -4.5.
3: Any other "early game bets" were cancelled (see strike-through at the top of this post).
Note: Was +196 / -196 Bills, earlier in the week.
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$1050 to win $1000 on the Bengals @ -6.5
$1100 to win $1000 on the Patriots @ +4.5
$825 to win $750 on the Eagles @ +9.0
$1320 to win $1200 on the Cowboys @ -3.0
$1100 to win $1000 on the Steelers @ +13.0
$825 to win $750 on the Cardinals @ +4.5
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Odds Estimate(s) Updates and Bets:
Raiders: ~$4.10 (+310)
Bengals: ~$1.32 (-310)
1: $6600 to win $3000 on the Bengals, money line.
2: $1100 to win $1000 on the Bengals @ -5 .
3: Any "early game bets" (see top of post).
Note: Was +269 / -269 Bengals, earlier in the week.
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Patriots: ~$3.75 (+275)
Bills: ~$1.36 (-275)
1: $6000 to win $3000 on the Bills, money line.
2: $2200 to win $2000 on the Bills @ -4.5.
3: Any other "early game bets" were cancelled (see strike-through at the top of this post).
Note: Was +196 / -196 Bills, earlier in the week.
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January 15th, 2022 at 7:05:21 PM
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Odds Estimate(s) Updates and Bets:
Eagles: ~$3.45 (+245)
Buccaneers: ~$1.41 (-245)
1: $2000 to win $6000 on the Eagles, money line.
2: $2475 to win $2250 on the Eagles @ +8.0 .
3: $825 to win $750 on the Eagles @ +9.0, earlier in the week.
Note: My odds estimate was +334 / -334 Buccaneers, earlier in the week.
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49ers: ~$3.10 (+210)
Cowboys: ~$1.48 (-210)
1: $6600 to win $4000 on the Cowboys, money line.
2: $1320 to win $1200 on the Cowboys @ -3.0, earlier in the week.
Note: My odds estimate was +184 / -184 Cowboys, earlier in the week.
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Will write about my Steelers update, after the Bills game finishes.
Update (about 740 pm, Pac time):
The Bills made a liar out of me, I will watch a recording of the 4th quarter later.
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Steelers: ~$5.40 (+440)
Chiefs: ~$1.23 (-440)
1: $500 to win $2650 on the Steelers, money line
2: $1000 to win $3000 on the Steelers @ +3.5
3: $2000 to win $2300 on the Steelers @ +10.5
4: $1100 to win $1000 on the Steelers @ +13.0, earlier in the week.
Note: My odds estimate was +488 / -488 Chiefs, earlier in the week.
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Eagles: ~$3.45 (+245)
Buccaneers: ~$1.41 (-245)
1: $2000 to win $6000 on the Eagles, money line.
2: $2475 to win $2250 on the Eagles @ +8.0 .
3: $825 to win $750 on the Eagles @ +9.0, earlier in the week.
Note: My odds estimate was +334 / -334 Buccaneers, earlier in the week.
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49ers: ~$3.10 (+210)
Cowboys: ~$1.48 (-210)
1: $6600 to win $4000 on the Cowboys, money line.
2: $1320 to win $1200 on the Cowboys @ -3.0, earlier in the week.
Note: My odds estimate was +184 / -184 Cowboys, earlier in the week.
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Will write about my Steelers update, after the Bills game finishes.
Update (about 740 pm, Pac time):
The Bills made a liar out of me, I will watch a recording of the 4th quarter later.
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Steelers: ~$5.40 (+440)
Chiefs: ~$1.23 (-440)
1: $500 to win $2650 on the Steelers, money line
2: $1000 to win $3000 on the Steelers @ +3.5
3: $2000 to win $2300 on the Steelers @ +10.5
4: $1100 to win $1000 on the Steelers @ +13.0, earlier in the week.
Note: My odds estimate was +488 / -488 Chiefs, earlier in the week.
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Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 15, 2022
January 15th, 2022 at 8:12:38 PM
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I was out having breakfast for the 1st half of the Raiders / Bengals game, so I didn't get to see two of these calls*** in the link below:
https://www.espn.com.au/nfl/story/_/id/33043281/questionable-nfl-playoff-officiating-decisions-happened-which-were-right-came-next
***: see "Errant whistle on Cincy touchdown" and "Raiders start drive at 2-yard line after returner steps out of bounds"
Edit (815 pm, Pac time): I still haven't seen it yet, but going by what was written in the above article it should have been a "replay third-down" for the "Cincy touchdown" one.
https://www.espn.com.au/nfl/story/_/id/33043281/questionable-nfl-playoff-officiating-decisions-happened-which-were-right-came-next
***: see "Errant whistle on Cincy touchdown" and "Raiders start drive at 2-yard line after returner steps out of bounds"
Edit (815 pm, Pac time): I still haven't seen it yet, but going by what was written in the above article it should have been a "replay third-down" for the "Cincy touchdown" one.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 15, 2022
January 15th, 2022 at 9:40:05 PM
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Update (After Saturday's Wild Card Games):
Note: All odds above are posted in decimal odds.
Note 2: The "Estimated Odds" are my "attempts at posting an unbiased average using various sites"
| Team To Win Super Bowl | Estimated Odds |
|---|---|
| Packers | $4.52 |
| Chiefs | $6.29 |
| Bills | $6.60 |
| Titans | $9.71 |
| Buccaneers | $8.85 |
| Rams | $16.3 |
| Cowboys | $15.6 |
| Bengals | $19.1 |
| 49ers | $28.9 |
| Patriots | Out |
| Cardinals | $42.9 |
| Raiders | Out |
| Steelers | $124 |
| Eagles | $121 |
Note: All odds above are posted in decimal odds.
Note 2: The "Estimated Odds" are my "attempts at posting an unbiased average using various sites"
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 15, 2022
January 16th, 2022 at 2:38:26 AM
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https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/money/2/
At the time of this post, In the above link it says Dallas is -140 at Treasure Island, anyone know if that is correct ?
Edit (About 1005 am, Pac time, see strike-through): ... anyone know if that was correct ? (it is now -150 according to the above link)
At the time of this post, In the above link it says Dallas is -140 at Treasure Island, anyone know if that is correct ?
Edit (About 1005 am, Pac time, see strike-through): ... anyone know if that was correct ? (it is now -150 according to the above link)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 16, 2022
January 16th, 2022 at 12:54:04 PM
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Quote: ksdjdjOdds Estimate(s) Updates and Bets:
Eagles: ~$3.45 (+245)
Buccaneers: ~$1.41 (-245)
1: $2000 to win $6000 on the Eagles, money line.
2: $2475 to win $2250 on the Eagles @ +8.0 .
3: $825 to win $750 on the Eagles @ +9.0, earlier in the week.
(snip)
link to original post
Come on, I just need lots of Bucs "3 and outs" and 3 more touchdowns (or 2 and a field goal) , can't be that hard*** ? : (
***: Maybe if Brady was playing for the Eagles down by 24 in the 4th, I could "keep my hopes alive" ?
January 16th, 2022 at 5:07:45 PM
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Quote: ksdjdjOdds Estimate(s) Updates and Bets:
(snip)
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Steelers: ~$5.40 (+440)
Chiefs: ~$1.23 (-440)
1: $500 to win $2650 on the Steelers, money line
2: $1000 to win $3000 on the Steelers @ +3.5
3: $2000 to win $2300 on the Steelers @ +10.5
4: $1100 to win $1000 on the Steelers @ +13.0, earlier in the week.
Note: My odds estimate was +488 / -488 Chiefs, earlier in the week.
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link to original post
Odds Estimate(s) Updates and Bets:
Steelers: ~$5.10 (+410)
Chiefs: ~$1.24 (-410)
5: Another $1400 to win $1610 on the Steelers @ +10.5
January 17th, 2022 at 1:36:21 PM
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Quote: ksdjdj
(snip)
Early Game Odds Estimates - "Wild Card Week":
(snip)
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Cardinals: ~$2.82 (+182)
Rams: ~$1.55 (-182)
Note: Rams between 58% and 71% estimated chance of winning
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Early Game Bets :
(snip)
$825 to win $750 on the Cardinals @ +4.5
(snip)
link to original post
Update (Game odds estimate and other info):
If all the questionable players for both teams are well enough to start, then I have the Cardinals +159 for this game (about +3.25*** against the spread)
***: Currently the public lines available to me are about right, and the best one that I can get is Cards +100 @ +3.25 / Rams +100 @ -3.25 ( which is in a "$200 max bet, promotional market").
January 17th, 2022 at 2:25:06 PM
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Another update:
With J.J. Watt likely well enough to start, and "If all the questionable players for both teams are well enough to start" (see previous post) I now have the Cardinals at about +119 / Rams -119
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Bet Updates:
1: $5000 to win 7800 on the Cardinals, Money Line
2: $825 to win $750 on the Cardinals @ +4.5, earlier in the week
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Update:
After watching the first quarter of the game, I cashed out $3790 (so lost $2035)
With J.J. Watt likely well enough to start, and "If all the questionable players for both teams are well enough to start" (see previous post) I now have the Cardinals at about +119 / Rams -119
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Bet Updates:
1: $5000 to win 7800 on the Cardinals, Money Line
2: $825 to win $750 on the Cardinals @ +4.5, earlier in the week
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Update:
After watching the first quarter of the game, I cashed out $3790 (so lost $2035)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 17, 2022
January 18th, 2022 at 1:53:19 PM
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| Team To Win Super Bowl | Estimated Odds |
|---|---|
| Packers | $4.62 |
| Chiefs | $4.82 |
| Bills | $7.3 |
| Titans | $10.2 |
| Buccaneers | $7.43 |
| Rams | $10.8 |
| Bengals | $21.9 |
| 49ers | $16.0 |
Note: All odds above are posted in decimal odds.
Note 2: The "Estimated Odds" are my "attempts at posting an unbiased average using various sites"
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Early Game Odds Estimates and Bets - "Divisional Round":
Bengals: ~$2.53 (+153)
Titans: ~$1.65 (-153)
1: 4500 to win 7650 on the Bengals, Money Line
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49ers: ~$2.90 (+190)
Packers: ~$1.53 (-190)
1: 4000 to win 8400 on the 49ers, Money Line
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Rams: ~$3.00 (+200)
Bucs: ~$1.50 (-200)
1: 8100 to win 5400 on the Bucs, Money Line
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Bills: ~$2.02 (+102)
Chiefs: ~$1.98 (-102)
1: 5900 to win 7080 on the Bills, Money Line
2: 750 to win 18750 on the Bills to win by 7
3: 750 to win 13500 on the Chiefs to win by 7
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Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 18, 2022
January 19th, 2022 at 1:40:21 PM
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Quote: ksdjdj(snip)
link to original post
Early Game Odds Estimates and Bets - "Divisional Round":
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Cancelled / Amended Bets:
49ers: ~$2.90 (+190)
Packers: ~$1.53 (-190)
Was: 1: 4000 to win 8400 on the 49ers, Money Line
Now: Cancelled
Reason: I think the odds will move against me, so I cancelled it in the hope of getting better odds later.
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Rams: ~$3.00 (+200)
Bucs: ~$1.50 (-200)
Was: 8100 to win 5400 on the Bucs, Money Line
Now: 8120 to win 5800 on the Bucs, Money Line
Reason: The odds I changed to are obviously better, but I lose the "... If the team you back is 17 (or more) points ahead any time during the game then paid as a winner..." Promo (since I bet with a different sports book to the one that offers that promo).
Note: With the book that I had the bet with now, I have lost the ability to cancel my bet "for free".
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Bills: ~$2.02 (+102)
Chiefs: ~$1.98 (-102)
Was: 1: 5900 to win 7080 on the Bills, Money Line
Now: 12000 to win 10000 on the Chiefs, Money Line
Reason: I think the Chiefs could get to -2.5 or even -3, but I plan to dump most / all of this bet on the Chiefs, and if the line moves enough I will make a small profit "on the dumping".
Note : I still plan to bet on the Bills, at this time.
Note 2: If you like the Chiefs in this game, you should take the -1.5, as it is still available*** with a few books (as at Wed, Jan 19 04:42 PM EDT)
***: According to the link here >>> https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/
January 20th, 2022 at 12:22:38 PM
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Quote: ksdjdj(snip)
link to original post
Cancelled / Amended Bets:
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49ers: ~$2.90 (+190) / Packers: ~$1.53 (-190)
Was: Cancelled
Now: 4000 to win 8400 on the 49ers, Money Line
Reason: I thought the odds would move against me, but I don't think that will happen anytime soon
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Bills: ~$2.02 (+102) / Chiefs: ~$1.98 (-102)
Was: See > link to original post
Now: Back to just 5900 to win 7980 on the Bills, Money Line
Reason: I thought the Chiefs would get to -2,5 / -3, now I don't think it will get to that, at this time.
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Other New Bet(s):
Bills / Chiefs Total Under 54.5: 1100 to win 1000 (I normally don't bet on totals, but I had the bet just because I saw a slow/stale total that was still 54.5).
700 to win 12600 on the Bills to win by 3
January 21st, 2022 at 6:44:17 AM
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Quote: ksdjdjQuote: ksdjdj(snip)
link to original post
Cancelled / Amended Bets:
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49ers: ~$2.90 (+190) / Packers: ~$1.53 (-190)
Was: Cancelled
Now: 4000 to win 8400 on the 49ers, Money Line
Reason: I thought the odds would move against me, but I don't think that will happen anytime soon
----.
Bills: ~$2.02 (+102) / Chiefs: ~$1.98 (-102)
Was: See > link to original post
Now: Back to just 5900 to win 7980 on the Bills, Money Line
Reason: I thought the Chiefs would get to -2,5 / -3, now I don't think it will get to that, at this time.
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Other New Bet(s):
Bills / Chiefs Total Under 54.5: 1100 to win 1000 (I normally don't bet on totals, but I had the bet just because I saw a slow/stale total that was still 54.5).
700 to win 12600 on the Bills to win by 3
link to original post
Ksddjd,
Where are you making these bets that they are allowing you to cancel them?
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
January 21st, 2022 at 7:06:53 AM
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I apologize if this has been posted already, but here are the probabilities of winning each conference and the Super Bowl, according to Pinnacle futures.
AFC
NFC
Super Bowl
AFC
| Team | Probability |
|---|---|
| Chiefs | 30.63% |
| Bills | 26.87% |
| Titans | 20.60% |
| Bengals | 13.01% |
NFC
| Team | Probability |
|---|---|
| Packers | 33.99% |
| Bucs | 25.57% |
| Rams | 20.01% |
| 49ers | 12.98% |
Super Bowl
| Team | Probability |
|---|---|
| Packers | 16.47% |
| Chiefs | 15.22% |
| Bills | 13.87% |
| Bucs | 12.16% |
| Rams | 9.36% |
| Titans | 7.68% |
| 49ers | 6.01% |
| Bengals | 5.22% |
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 21st, 2022 at 8:24:33 AM
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Wait . . . . what?
Canceled bets? How? Where?
Canceled bets? How? Where?
January 21st, 2022 at 1:00:20 PM
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Quote: DRichQuote: ksdjdjQuote: ksdjdj(snip)
link to original post
Cancelled / Amended Bets:
----
49ers: ~$2.90 (+190) / Packers: ~$1.53 (-190)
Was: Cancelled
Now: 4000 to win 8400 on the 49ers, Money Line
Reason: I thought the odds would move against me, but I don't think that will happen anytime soon
----.
Bills: ~$2.02 (+102) / Chiefs: ~$1.98 (-102)
Was: See > link to original post
Now: Back to just 5900 to win 7980 on the Bills, Money Line
Reason: I thought the Chiefs would get to -2,5 / -3, now I don't think it will get to that, at this time.
---
Other New Bet(s):
Bills / Chiefs Total Under 54.5: 1100 to win 1000 (I normally don't bet on totals, but I had the bet just because I saw a slow/stale total that was still 54.5).
700 to win 12600 on the Bills to win by 3
link to original post
Ksddjd,
Where are you making these bets that they are allowing you to cancel them?
link to original post
Most of the bets I have are with >>> bet365(Australia)
Note 1: I can't cancel my Bucs bet now, because I had that one with a book that doesn't allow it
Note 2: I probably won't cancel my Bengals bet because I think I have used that feature "too much" this week, even though the odds look like they will move slightly against me for that one (hopefully not).
January 22nd, 2022 at 2:34:30 AM
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Quote: ksdjdj
Team To Win Super Bowl Estimated Odds Packers $4.62 Chiefs $4.82 Bills $7.3 Titans $10.2 Buccaneers $7.43 Rams $10.8 Bengals $21.9 49ers $16.0
(snip)
link to original post
Update:
| Team To Win Super Bowl | Estimated Odds |
|---|---|
| Packers | $4.51 |
| Chiefs | $5.01 |
| Bills | $7.25 |
| Titans | $9.67 |
| Buccaneers | $7.38 |
| Rams | $10.4 |
| Bengals | $22.1 |
| 49ers | $16.6 |
Note: All odds above are posted in decimal odds.
Note 2: The "Estimated Odds" are my "attempts at posting an unbiased average using various sites"
January 22nd, 2022 at 3:09:08 AM
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Quote: GundyWait . . . . what?
Canceled bets? How? Where?
link to original post
Here is a link > link < for the the game on the 25th of January last year ("Australia time").
. Notice how the bet in the link has $3445.01 for the "stake" (bottom left) and 3445.01 as the "cash out" figure (bottom right).
"How": The "cash out" figure is based on the "current fair value and the odds that I take at the time of the bet", eg if I took $2.65 and it goes to $3.00 then I would probably lose about $400*** if I wanted to "cash out" early.
***: In this "hypothetical example, using the bet of $3445 , I probably would have been able to "cash out" $3043 if the odds went to $3 and I decided to "cash out".
"Where": see reply in post >>> https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/36817-super-bowl-lvi-estimated-odds/3/#post838634
January 23rd, 2022 at 3:28:06 AM
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Quote: ksdjdjQuote: ksdjdj
(snip)
link to original post
Update:
(snip)
link to original post
Update 2:
| Team To Win Super Bowl | Estimated Odds |
|---|---|
| Packers | Out |
| Chiefs | $4.4 |
| Bills | $5.3 |
| Titans | Out |
| Buccaneers | $4.8 |
| Rams | $7.4 |
| Bengals | $10.5 |
| 49ers | $6.9 |
Note: All odds above are posted in decimal odds.
Note 2: The "Estimated Odds" are my "attempts at posting an unbiased average using various sites"
January 23rd, 2022 at 12:41:48 PM
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Quote: ksdjdj(snip)
Was: 8100 to win 5400 on the Bucs, Money Line
Now: 8120 to win 5800 on the Bucs, Money Line
(snip)
link to original post
I locked in a loss of 3480 on this game, by betting live on the Rams @ -200 (they are looking too good thus far).
January 23rd, 2022 at 3:09:50 PM
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O oh, here comes Brady and the Bucs
January 23rd, 2022 at 10:52:32 PM
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Update (after Divisional Round):
Note: All odds above are posted in decimal odds.
Note 2: The "Estimated Odds" are my "attempts at posting an unbiased average using various sites"
----
Early Game Odds Estimates and Bets - "Conf. Championship":
Bengals (+8) : ~$4.20 (+320) / Chiefs (-8) : ~$1.31 (-320)
Note: I originally had the Bengals between a +4.5 and +5 underdog (if both teams were near "full strength").
1: $3450 to win $3000 on the Chiefs @ -6.5
2(a): $511 to win $12775 on the Chiefs to win by 3 and under 63.5 points
2(b): $289 to win $13005 on the Chiefs to win by 3 and over 57.5 points
3(a): $364 to win $10192 on the Chiefs to win by 7 and under 63.5 points
3(b): $156 to win $10296 on the Chiefs to win by 7 and over 55.5 points
----
Update (235 am, Pac Time):
49ers (+5.5) : ~$3.24 (+224) / Rams (-5.5) : ~$1.45 (-224)
I will add 49ers and Rams game "odds estimate" later, below are some of the special bets I have had already:
1(a): $612 to win $15300 on the Rams to win by 3 and under 56.5 points
1(b): $284 to win $15620 on the Rams to win by 3 and over 51.5 points
2(a): $110 to win $3080 on the Rams to win by 7 and under 52.5 points
2(b): $70 to win $3150 on the Rams to win by 7 and over 47.5 points
3: $4200 to win $2400 on the Rams, Money Line (added during the update at 235 am).
| Team To Win Super Bowl | Estimated Odds |
|---|---|
| Chiefs | $2.34 |
| Rams | $3.08 |
| Bengals | $11 |
| 49ers | $6.35 |
Note: All odds above are posted in decimal odds.
Note 2: The "Estimated Odds" are my "attempts at posting an unbiased average using various sites"
----
Early Game Odds Estimates and Bets - "Conf. Championship":
Bengals (+8) : ~$4.20 (+320) / Chiefs (-8) : ~$1.31 (-320)
Note: I originally had the Bengals between a +4.5 and +5 underdog (if both teams were near "full strength").
1: $3450 to win $3000 on the Chiefs @ -6.5
2(a): $511 to win $12775 on the Chiefs to win by 3 and under 63.5 points
2(b): $289 to win $13005 on the Chiefs to win by 3 and over 57.5 points
3(a): $364 to win $10192 on the Chiefs to win by 7 and under 63.5 points
3(b): $156 to win $10296 on the Chiefs to win by 7 and over 55.5 points
----
Update (235 am, Pac Time):
49ers (+5.5) : ~$3.24 (+224) / Rams (-5.5) : ~$1.45 (-224)
I will add 49ers and Rams game "odds estimate" later, below are some of the special bets I have had already:
1(a): $612 to win $15300 on the Rams to win by 3 and under 56.5 points
1(b): $284 to win $15620 on the Rams to win by 3 and over 51.5 points
2(a): $110 to win $3080 on the Rams to win by 7 and under 52.5 points
2(b): $70 to win $3150 on the Rams to win by 7 and over 47.5 points
3: $4200 to win $2400 on the Rams, Money Line (added during the update at 235 am).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 24, 2022
January 25th, 2022 at 4:23:39 PM
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Quote: ksdjdj(snip)
49ers (+5.5) : ~$3.24 (+224) / Rams (-5.5) : ~$1.45 (-224)
I will add 49ers and Rams game "odds estimate" later, below are some of the special bets I have had already:
1(a): $612 to win $15300 on the Rams to win by 3 and under 56.5 points
1(b): $284 to win $15620 on the Rams to win by 3 and over 51.5 points
2(a): $110 to win $3080 on the Rams to win by 7 and under 52.5 points
2(b): $70 to win $3150 on the Rams to win by 7 and over 47.5 points
3: $4200 to win $2400 on the Rams, Money Line (added during the update at 235 am).
link to original post
I usually don't bet much on half's and quarters, but below are some more bets that I had:
4: 1st Half: 1650 to win 1500 on the Rams @ -3
5: 3rd Quarter: 1000 to win 1200 on the Rams @ -0.5
6: 4th Quarter: 1000 to win 1050 on the Rams @ -0.5
Note 1: I think the Rams should be about -3.75 for the 1st Half.
Note 2: I think the Rams should be about -1.75 for the 2nd Half (I can't bet on the 2nd half, so I had to bet on 3rd and 4th Quarter instead).
Note 3: These figures are based on my "-5.5 estimated line for the Rams"
----
Also, if you like the Rams, you should take the -165 at the Peppermill***
***: Assuming the odds in the link here >>> Vegas Insider <<< are correct (as at "Tue, Jan 25 07:20 PM EDT")
----
Update (~435 PM, Pac Time):
According the "Vegas Insider" Link above, you can get the Rams -110 @ -2.5 for the first half with the same book (too bad the best I can get is -3, with the books that I have access to).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 25, 2022
January 25th, 2022 at 7:14:19 PM
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Might be wrong but as I said a while back, the Chiefs are going to the super bowl. I would say it will be the Chefs and the Rams.
Marcus Clark. Real Person; AKA MarcusClark66. *Professional Casino Security Expert.
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January 25th, 2022 at 10:19:24 PM
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Quote: Marcusclark66Might be wrong but as I said a while back, the Chiefs are going to the super bowl. I would say it will be the Chefs and the Rams.
link to original post
Probably, but anything can happen.
Going just by the current Betfair prices, the rough odds of a Chiefs x Rams Super Bowl is +112 (so therefore the odds of any other combo is about -112).
Also, I am glad that I didn't bet on any Super Bowl futures, as the Chiefs are the only ones left out of the ones that I originally liked (see original post here >>> original post )
January 27th, 2022 at 2:29:40 PM
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Quote: ksdjdj(snip)
49ers (+5.5) : ~$3.24 (+224) / Rams (-5.5) : ~$1.45 (-224)
(snip)
3: $4200 to win $2400 on the Rams, Money Line (added during the update at 235 am).
(snip)
link to original post
Important Update / Game Odds Estimates and Bets :
49ers (+2.25) : ~$2.35 (+135) / Rams (-2.25) : ~$1.74 (-135)
Summary: I suspect that the home field advantage (hfa) will be "negligible" instead of "normal" (reduced my hfa estimate from 3.5 points to 0.25 points).
Main Reason: The 49ers fan turn out is expected to be similar to the " Jan. 9 game ", so it will almost be like it is played at a "neutral (or near neutral)" stadium.
Because of this, I have cancelled*** the bets I had in the quote below:
***: I didn't cancel the Money Line bet on the Rams (see quote above) because I have used this feature a lot in about a two week period (this feature has already been disabled for my horse racing bets, about a year ago, so I don't want it disabled for sports as well).
Quote: ksdjdj(snip)
4: 1st Half: 1650 to win 1500 on the Rams @ -3
5: 3rd Quarter: 1000 to win 1200 on the Rams @ -0.5
6: 4th Quarter: 1000 to win 1050 on the Rams @ -0.5
(snip)
link to original post
Update (About 250 pm, Pac Time):
(New Bet) 4: $400 to win $8000 on the 49ers to win by 3
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 27, 2022
January 28th, 2022 at 6:22:31 AM
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Quote: ksdjdj
Summary: I suspect that the home field advantage (hfa) will be "negligible" instead of "normal" (reduced my hfa estimate from 3.5 points to 0.25 points).
Main Reason: The 49ers fan turn out is expected to be similar to the " Jan. 9 game ", so it will almost be like it is played at a "neutral (or near neutral)" stadium.
My belief is that fan participation only accounts for a small part of HFA. I believe the biggest part is just the travel and fatigue from it. I would guess that the fans account for less than a half point.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
January 28th, 2022 at 10:59:14 AM
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Quote: DRichQuote: ksdjdj
Summary: I suspect that the home field advantage (hfa) will be "negligible" instead of "normal" (reduced my hfa estimate from 3.5 points to 0.25 points).
Main Reason: The 49ers fan turn out is expected to be similar to the " Jan. 9 game ", so it will almost be like it is played at a "neutral (or near neutral)" stadium.
My belief is that fan participation only accounts for a small part of HFA. I believe the biggest part is just the travel and fatigue from it. I would guess that the fans account for less than a half point.
link to original post
I think you are wrong. Jets/Giants is an easy example. In other sports there can be actual rules which favor the home team. Baseball is easiest. Hockey home team gets ‘last change’.
Also, refs supposedly make slightly more penalty calls against road teams in football. Crowd noise supposedly results in more false start calls.
January 28th, 2022 at 4:49:26 PM
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Quote: ksdjdj
(snip)
Bengals (+8) : ~$4.20 (+320) / Chiefs (-8) : ~$1.31 (-320)
(snip)
link to original post
After re-doing my "HFA estimates", I get the following figures for the Bengals / Chiefs game.
Bengals (+7.5) : ~$4.05 (+305) / Chiefs (-7.5) : ~$1.33 (-305)
Reminder: I would probably have the Chiefs about -4.5 in a " full strength team" vs "" full strength team" , but I think the -7.5 is a fair adjustment (due to the expected number of players out for both teams, and expected loss of "strength" with those players out, etc).
-----
The latest estimate for the 49ers / Rams game is "closer to correct" than my earlier estimate for that game, IMO (see my link to my previous post here >>> my previous post ).
January 30th, 2022 at 2:08:09 AM
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Update 2:
Note: All odds above are posted in decimal odds.
Note 2: The "Estimated Odds" are my "attempts at posting an unbiased average using various sites"
| Team To Win Super Bowl | Estimated Odds |
|---|---|
| Chiefs | $2.33 |
| Rams | $3.10 |
| Bengals | $11.5 |
| 49ers | $6.25 |
Note: All odds above are posted in decimal odds.
Note 2: The "Estimated Odds" are my "attempts at posting an unbiased average using various sites"
January 30th, 2022 at 3:28:19 AM
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My Estimated Opening Odds for the Super Bowl ("What If " Scenarios):
Super Bowl Scenarios:
1: Chiefs (-1.5): ~ $1.81 (-124) / Rams (+1.5): ~$2.24 (+124)
2: Chiefs (-4.0): ~ $1.56 (-178) / 49ers (+4.0): ~$2.78 (+178)
3: Bengals (+3.25): ~$2.60 (+160) / Rams (-3.25): ~$1.63 (-160)
4: Bengals (+0.5): ~$2.08 (+108) / 49ers (-0.5): ~$1.93 (-108)
Note 1: These are just estimates of what I think the opening odds for each potential Super Bowl scenario should be
Note 2: These are my "neutral field" estimates, in other words HFA hasn't been incorporated into these figures yet (if any).
Note 3: These estimates are only to be used, if there are no "key player" injuries in the Conference Championships.
----
Using my above "scenario" figures and "Conference Championship" odds, here are my own estimates for the Super Bowl:
Note: All odds above are posted in decimal odds.
Note 2: These figures are what I think the Super Bowl odds should be (based on my own estimates)
Note 3: Again, any potential HFA hasn't been worked out yet.
Note 4 (Reminder): If you want to see the "Estimated Odds ..." and "...attempts at posting an unbiased average... " for the Super Bowl, then see my previous reply, above.
----
Spelling not checked
Super Bowl Scenarios:
1: Chiefs (-1.5): ~ $1.81 (-124) / Rams (+1.5): ~$2.24 (+124)
2: Chiefs (-4.0): ~ $1.56 (-178) / 49ers (+4.0): ~$2.78 (+178)
3: Bengals (+3.25): ~$2.60 (+160) / Rams (-3.25): ~$1.63 (-160)
4: Bengals (+0.5): ~$2.08 (+108) / 49ers (-0.5): ~$1.93 (-108)
Note 1: These are just estimates of what I think the opening odds for each potential Super Bowl scenario should be
Note 2: These are my "neutral field" estimates, in other words HFA hasn't been incorporated into these figures yet (if any).
Note 3: These estimates are only to be used, if there are no "key player" injuries in the Conference Championships.
----
Using my above "scenario" figures and "Conference Championship" odds, here are my own estimates for the Super Bowl:
| Team To Win Super Bowl | My Estimated Odds |
|---|---|
| Chiefs | $2.23 |
| Rams | $3.59 |
| Bengals | $9.51 |
| 49ers | $5.96 |
Note: All odds above are posted in decimal odds.
Note 2: These figures are what I think the Super Bowl odds should be (based on my own estimates)
Note 3: Again, any potential HFA hasn't been worked out yet.
Note 4 (Reminder): If you want to see the "Estimated Odds ..." and "...attempts at posting an unbiased average... " for the Super Bowl, then see my previous reply, above.
----
Spelling not checked
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 30, 2022
January 30th, 2022 at 7:40:09 AM
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I'm not big on handicapping, but I find lines are often a bit off on the end of season games. In this case, I find both games today to be roughly evenly matched. Thus, I bet on both underdogs -- SF and Cincy as well as the under in the Cincy game.
Please don't put much stock in my side and over/under picks. I bet them small only, to show my level of faith in these picks is also small.
Please don't put much stock in my side and over/under picks. I bet them small only, to show my level of faith in these picks is also small.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 30th, 2022 at 8:39:00 AM
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Today is THE day.
Chiefs and Rams. (I hope anyway)
Chiefs and Rams. (I hope anyway)
Marcus Clark. Real Person; AKA MarcusClark66. *Professional Casino Security Expert.
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January 30th, 2022 at 11:41:48 AM
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I have a rather substantial wager (for me) on the Rams -3.5. I hate betting favorites. I hate laying 3.5 or 7.5 point, but am doing so. I hate wagering on Matthew Stafford, who has a total of 2 playoff games under his belt. SF has beaten the Rams twice this season.
But my "look" test says the Rams are the better team in most categories. I don't think Matthew Stratford need win this game. I think the Rams all around will win and fairly comfortable.
For the first game, I like the cheifs -7 and the over 54.5. On a normal weekend, I wouldn't bet either as I don't like either wager all that much. Being championship weekend, I am putting my standard small wager on both. I think there is a good change I win one and lose one, as I could see the cheifs covering 7 and winning like 31-13, covering the spread but not the over. I could also see a shootout where cheifs win 35-31, covering the over but not the spread. Maybe I will get lucky and Cinn will score enough to go over but still lose 38-24 or something like that.
Either way, my day will depend on the Rams game results. Happy confernece championship day to all.
But my "look" test says the Rams are the better team in most categories. I don't think Matthew Stratford need win this game. I think the Rams all around will win and fairly comfortable.
For the first game, I like the cheifs -7 and the over 54.5. On a normal weekend, I wouldn't bet either as I don't like either wager all that much. Being championship weekend, I am putting my standard small wager on both. I think there is a good change I win one and lose one, as I could see the cheifs covering 7 and winning like 31-13, covering the spread but not the over. I could also see a shootout where cheifs win 35-31, covering the over but not the spread. Maybe I will get lucky and Cinn will score enough to go over but still lose 38-24 or something like that.
Either way, my day will depend on the Rams game results. Happy confernece championship day to all.
