2021 NFL Coin Flip Picks with AZDuffman

WEEK 1 RESULTS

DAL at TB TAMPA -7.5, -109 LOSS
JAX at HOU JAX -3, -106 LOSS
LAC at WAS WAS +1.5, -109 LOSS
SEA at IND IND +2.5 -103 LOSS
NYJ at CAR NYJ +5.5 -107 WIN
MIN at CIN CIN + 3.5, -117 WIN
AZ at TEN AZ + 3, -110 WIN
SF at DET SF -8, -108 PUSH
PIT at BUF BUF -6.5, -110 LOSS
PHI at ATL ATL -3.5 -110 LOSS
CLE at KC CLE + 6.5 -117 WIN
GB @ NO NO +4.5 -113 WIN
DEN @ NYG NYG +3, -114 LOSS
MIA at NE NE -3, -108 LOSS
CHI at LAR CHI +7, -109 LOSS
BAL at LAV BAL -4.5, -107 LOSS


RAW RESULTS: 5-10-1

WAGERED: $1757
WIN: $500
LOSS: $1085
NET: ($585)
REVERSE NET: $564*
STREET VIG OWED: $29**

*REVERSE NET is the money results if every coin flip was reversed.
** STREET VIG is 5 points per week on losses until you are caught up.

Can't call this anything but a wipe-out for the coins. Anyone want to do the stat math and figure out the odds of this bad of a week?

Those who remember the original coin picks years ago will notice I added "reverse net" and "street vig owed." Reverse net is to show what would happen if we exactly reversed the coins. I suspect that what we will find is that the juice will make either way unprofitable. Most of us know not to pick too many games, this experiment should prove it.

Street vig owed is kind of for fun, but also to show a lesson as to what happens if you keep betting on credit with street bookies.

See you all tomorrow for next week's picks. Anyone out there making book go straighten up!

I already have the really bad feeling that this column is going to make the fall fly by fast. It is Wed already?

Last week the coins picked with all the smarts of a reject from the idiot farm. They almost have to do better this week.

NYG at WFT NYG +3.5 (-110)
NE at JETS NE -5.5 (-113)
DEN at JAX DEN -6 (-107)
BUF at MIA BUF -3.5 (-108)
SF at PHI PHI +3.5 (-110)
RAM at IND IND +4 (-109)
LV at PIT PIT -5.5 (-112)
CIN at CHI CHI -3 (-107)
HOU at CLE HOU +12.5 (-113)
NO at CAR NO -3.4 (-110)
MIN at AZ AZ -4.5 (-112)
ATL at TB TB -12.5 (-112)
TEN at SEA TEN +5.5 (-108)
DAL at LAC DAL +3 (-110)
KC at BAL BAL +3,5 (-109)
DET at GB GB -11 (-108)

7 chalk picks vs 9 dogs, that is pretty close to dead even, the coins are showing no bias to either side there this week.

Walking up to the window with $1768 put in play this week. I have $1800 with me so I figure maybe I will try that noodle bar I keep meaning to try.....except it is hardly ever open!

See what happens when you post your picks in advance? You should be like the Big Dogs and post the bets after they happen.
The results will look much better.

NYG at WFT NYG +3.5 (-110) WIN
NE at JETS NE -5.5 (-113) WIN
DEN at JAX DEN -6 (-107) WIN
BUF at MIA BUF -3.5 (-108) WIN
SF at PHI PHI +3.5 (-110) LOSS
RAM at IND IND +4 (-109) WIN
LV at PIT PIT -5.5 (-112) LOSS
CIN at CHI CHI -3 (-107) PUSH
HOU at CLE HOU +12.5 (-113) WIN
NO at CAR NO -3.4 (-110) LOSS
MIN at AZ AZ -4.5 (-112) LOSS
ATL at TB TB -12.5 (-112) LOSS
TEN at SEA TEN +5.5 (-108) WIN
DAL at LAC DAL +3 (-110) PUSH
KC at BAL BAL +3.5 (-109) WIN
DET at GB GB -11 (-108) WIN


RAW RESULTS: 9-5-2
SEASON RAW RESULT: 14-15-3

WAGERED: $1541
WAGERED SEASON: $3298

WIN: $900
WIN SEASON: $1400

LOSS: $556
LOSS SEASON: $1641

NET: $344
NET SEASON: ($241)

REVERSE NET: ($1041)
REVERSE NET SEASON: ($477)

STREET VIG OWED: $12
STREET VIG OWED SEASON: $41*

*Those who have read "Donnie Brasco" will note that you cannot make a partial payment on a street loan, you must pay in full or the vig keeps running. I do not have time to calculate all of that so Street Vig Owed will just be on the net account like if you had a credit card or other revolving line. We will assume the coins play with a benevolent bookie in that respect.

A great week for the coins and a great lesson for us all. Coins basically reversed last weeks wipeout. But what of our bankroll? 9-5 sounds like we should be hitting that new Italian restaurant that replaced the steakhouse, but look at that net! Seems puny. It is all that juice you are paying! This is why your bookie drives a Buick, it lets him afford a nice car but he does not drive a Cadillac lest you start to wonder what he is making.

See you tomorrow with the new coin picks.

You might have a math error. You have your season net as less of a loss than reverse season net. Yet you are 14-15 vs reverse 15-14.

Quote: unJon

You might have a math error. You have your season net as less of a loss than reverse season net. Yet you are 14-15 vs reverse 15-14.

link to original post

The math is weird and driving me crazy. What you have to remember is the losses are more due to the juice than a win is so the loss is bigger than the 1 game suggests. But if someone finds the actual error please let me know. I did the numbers at about 0530 in a room with the screen as the light source and have my mind on getting a MRI later today so I could have missed something.

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: unJon

You might have a math error. You have your season net as less of a loss than reverse season net. Yet you are 14-15 vs reverse 15-14.

link to original post

The math is weird and driving me crazy. What you have to remember is the losses are more due to the juice than a win is so the loss is bigger than the 1 game suggests. But if someone finds the actual error please let me know. I did the numbers at about 0530 in a room with the screen as the light source and have my mind on getting a MRI later today so I could have missed something.

link to original post

I get that. But look at your season results: 14-15-3. And your reverse season results: 15-14-3. Which should have the greater loss?

Another Wednesday morning, time to wake up the coins and get them making their picks. Rachel Bonetta has not yet called to have me do this on TV so only being posted here.

CAR at HOU CAR -8, -110
IND at TEN IND +5.5 -113
ATL at NYG NYG -3, -110
LAC at KC KC -6.5, -110
CIN at PIT CIN +4, -113
BAL at DET BAL -8. -112
NO at NE NE -3. -104
AZ at JAX AZ -7, -115
WFT at BUF WFT +8.5, -110
JETS at DEN JETS +11, -113
MIA at LV LV -3.5, -109
SEA at MIN SEA -2, -110
TB at RAMS TB -1.5, -107
GB at SF GB +3.5, -117
PHI at DAL DAL -4, -110

TOTAL WAGERED: $1663

CAR at HOU CAR -8, -110 WIN
IND at TEN IND +5.5 -113 LOSS
ATL at NYG NYG -3, -110 PUSH
LAC at KC KC -6.5, -110 LOSS
CIN at PIT CIN +4, -113 WIN
BAL at DET BAL -8. -112 LOSS
NO at NE NE -3. -104 LOSS
AZ at JAX AZ -7, -115 WIN
WFT at BUF WFT +8.5, -110 LOSS
JETS at DEN JETS +11, -113 LOSS
MIA at LV LV -3.5, -109 LOSS
SEA at MIN SEA -2, -110 LOSS
TB at RAMS TB -1.5, -107 LOSS
GB at SF GB +3.5, -117 WIN
PHI at DAL DAL -4, -110 WIN




RAW RESULTS: 5-9-1*
SEASON RAW RESULT: 19-24-4

*somehow it looks like I missed picking a game, luckily I cannot get fired for an error rate.

WAGERED: $1553
WAGERED SEASON: $4851

WIN: $500
WIN SEASON: $1900

LOSS: $988
LOSS SEASON: $3467**

**this number does not match last week as I had to correct some math for counting pushes as losses.

NET: ($663)
NET SEASON: ($1567)

REVERSE NET: $335
REVERSE NET SEASON: ($142)

STREET VIG OWED: $33
STREET VIG OWED SEASON: $78

The coins are showing themselves to so far be chicken or feathers. Note though that the reverse is still a net negative after what would have been 2 great weeks. Do not ask me how or what game I missed setting this up this week, much on my mind. In other news I applied to some sportsbook promoter job on craigslist. I doubt it goes anywhere but at least I can say I put my ability to calculate a moneyline to some kind of use.

Next weeks games tomorrow morning. There was no Steelers early line this week, telling me the might be the team who will give bookmakers ulcers the rest of the season. I am thinking they will go 5-12 the way they are looking.

The wizard’ has already analyzed decades of NFL results on one of his pages. The analysis shows that the point-spread lines are extremely accurate over the long term…meaning if you pick randomly you will win very close to 50% of your picks.

If you randomly pick all 256 regular season games, you can be 95.4% confident of winning 128 +/- 32.