2021 NFL Coin Flip Picks with AZDuffman

WEEK 17

PHI @ WAS WAS +3.5 (-117) LOSS
RAMS @ BAL RAMS -3.5 (-110) LOSS
TB @ JETS TB -13.5 (-107) LOSS
MIA @ TEN TEN -3.5 (-110) WIN
JAX @ NE NE -15.5 (-109) WIN
LV @ IND LV +6.5 (-114) WIN
KC @ CIN KC -5 (-110) LOSS
NYG @ CHI CHI -6 (-109) WIN
ATL @ BUF BUF -14.5 (-108) LOSS
HOU @ SF SF -11 (-110) WIN
DEN @ LAC LAC -6.5 (-107) WIN
CAR @ NO CAR +6.5 (+100) LOSS
DET @ SEA SEA -6.5 (-114) WIN
AZ @ DAL DAL -5.5 (-112) LOSS
MIN @ GB MIN +6.5 (-112) LOSS
CLE @ PIT PIT +3.5 (-114) WIN

RAW RESULTS: 8-8
SEASON RAW RESULT: 101-133-5

WAGERED: $1763
WAGERED SEASON: $26201

WIN: $800
WIN SEASON: $10100

LOSS: $876
LOSS SEASON: $15620


NET: ($76)
NET SEASON: ($3099)

REVERSE NET: ($87)
REVERSE NET SEASON: $1013

THIRD straight week the coins go .500.

Wouldn’t it be easier to just flip a coin 16 times per week, record heads as a win and eliminate the football picks?

Quote: Ace2

Wouldn’t it be easier to just flip a coin 16 times per week, record heads as a win and eliminate the football picks?
link to original post

If I were just doing a math problem yes. But I am doing my once a decade experiment on how flipping a coin to pick winners works. As I said in the opening post, it is inspired by the Wall Street Journal "dartboard picks" of the 1990s.

Okay but decades of data has already been analyzed, confirming that picking NFL point spreads is like a coin flip. Meaning the point spreads are dead accurate over the long term

Or close to it since there’s consistently a slight bias toward dogs. Call it 51% / 49% dogs/favorites

Quote: Ace2

Okay but decades of data has already been analyzed, confirming that picking NFL point spreads is like a coin flip. Meaning the point spreads are dead accurate over the long term

Or close to it since there’s consistently a slight bias toward dogs. Call it 51% / 49% dogs/favorites
link to original post

And?


Idea is a fun experiment.

WEEK 18

KC @ DEN KC -10.5 (-107)
DAL @ PHI PHI +7 (-109)
GB @ DET GB -4.5 (-105)
IND @ JAX IND -15.5 (-110)
WAS @ NYG NYG +7 (-110)
CHI @ MIN MIN -3.5 (-114)
TEN @ HOU HOU +10m (-107)
PIT @ BAL BAL -5.5 (-113)
CIN @ CLE CIN +6 (-108)
SF @ RAMS SF -4.5 (-110)
CAR @ TB CAR +8 (-109)
SEA @ AZ AZ -6.5 (-108)
NE @ MIA NE -6.5 (-112)
NO @ ATL NO -4.5 (-109)
NYJ @ BUF NYJ +16.5 (-110)
LAC @ LV LAC -3 (-112)

]WEEK 18 + FINAL RESULTS

KC @ DEN KC -10.5 (-107) LOSS
DAL @ PHI PHI +7 (-109) LOSS
GB @ DET GB -4.5 (-105) LOSS
IND @ JAX IND -15.5 (-110) LOSS
WAS @ NYG NYG +7 (-110) LOSS
CHI @ MIN MIN -3.5 (-114) WIN
TEN @ HOU HOU +10 (-107) WIN
PIT @ BAL BAL -5.5 (-113) LOSS
CIN @ CLE CIN +6 (-108) WIN
SF @ RAMS SF -4.5 (-110) LOSS
CAR @ TB CAR +8 (-109) LOSS
SEA @ AZ AZ -6.5 (-108) LOSS
NE @ MIA NE -6.5 (-112) LOSS
NO @ ATL NO -4.5 (-109) WIN
NYJ @ BUF NYJ +16.5 (-110) LOSS
LAC @ LV LAC -3 (-112) LOSS

RAW RESULTS: 4-12
SEASON RAW RESULT: 105-145-5

WAGERED: $1753
WAGERED SEASON: $27954

WIN: $400
WIN SEASON: $10500

LOSS: $1315
LOSS SEASON: $16935


NET: ($915)
NET SEASON: ($4014)

REVERSE NET: $362
REVERSE NET SEASON: $1375

So some final thoughts. The coins were NEVER ahead, but the reverse was. IOW, if you had picked the opposite side you would have ended up ahead, but a mere 4.9% ROI. You would probably get some bonus play from all of that play. Once again the lesson is do not bet too many games.