2021 NFL Coin Flip Picks with AZDuffman

I was going to do this again last year but the virus had things so weird I waited. Can not believe it was 10 years ago I did it in my blog. People seemed to like it so lets put out a teaser since I have time to explain it all now and may not next week.

Coin Flip Sports Betting with AZDUFFMAN

The Wall Street Journal used to do the "Dartboard Portfolio" back in the 1990s-2000s. In short, they had a few "experts" pick a stock each, 4 in total. Then they threw darts at the stock tables and picked 4 at as random as darts could be. I forget the timetable, but the gist was do "experts" pick better than darts? Sometimes they did, sometimes they did not. Same concept here but for NFL bets.

Here are the parameters:

1. Every week I will "pick" bets on all NFL games using a coin-flip simulator online. Heads will mean home team tails will mean away team.

2. All bets will be what I will call "$100 neutral." Meaning the standard -100 vig will be a $110 bet. Extra juice say -115 will be a $115 bet. On those stray bets with a positive vig say +105 the bet will be $100. This is to make the math easy.

3. THESE ARE PAPER BETS ONLY! If you take advice from this thread and complain to me my reply will be that it is a good thing you lost as the sportsbook owned can spend your money better than you if you make bets based on coin flips on a forum thread.

4. There is no set bankroll and there will be no progression or betting in units, all bets are flat as shown above.

5. All picks will be posted by Thursday morning to allow for Thursday game picks to be part of things. Lines will be whatever are posted at Rivers Pittsburgh when I post. I will not line shop! I will not consider replies that say they have found a better line! IF YOU CAN FIND A BETTER LINE, BET IT! If you do not get where that sentence comes from, ask someone who remembers the early to mid 1980s.

I will be using Rivers Pittsburgh because that is my local place. I will not line shop because part of the experiment is to show what happens to the guy who goes to just one book and places just flat bets. Also, I am not getting paid enough to line shop. And even if a few of you offered to duke me some crypto for the effort I doubt I will have the time.

6. Weeks results will be posted usually Tuesday morning.

7. Discussion is of course encouraged but I will not reply to the picks themselves, the coins pick what they pick. Similarly, I will not be discussing if things are sufficiently random or anything else about how the experiment is structured. I will not "update" lines that move. Games with no line will be handled in a manner I choose but I will point them out.

See you all next week!

As long as you are doing that, why not play the NFL Picks game this year and just use five of your coin flips for your picks?

Quote: Mission146

As long as you are doing that, why not play the NFL Picks game this year and just use five of your coin flips for your picks?

Didn't see it.

Quote: AZDuffman

Didn't see it.

It hasn't started yet, just click on the Sports Betting sub-forum and look at the Official Thread to read the rules. I'll also make sure to PM you when Week 1 Lines are up.

Quote: AZDuffman

I will not reply to the picks themselves, the coins pick what they pick. Similarly, I will not be discussing if things are sufficiently random or anything else about how the experiment is structured.

Beautiful. Sounds like it will be interesting.

Since you said "coin-flip simulator online", I wouldn't even raise a question of bias in method.

I am curious which of the many simulators you're using, if you care to comment. random.org/coins looks interesting, but the output may not be convenient.

Quote: AZDuffman

The Wall Street Journal used to do the "Dartboard Portfolio" back in the 1990s-2000s. In short, they had a few "experts" pick a stock each, 4 in total. Then they threw darts at the stock tables and picked 4 at as random as darts could be. I forget the timetable, but the gist was do "experts" pick better than darts? Sometimes they did, sometimes they did not. Same concept here but for NFL bets.

the dart throwing stock picking thing came from the 1973 book by Professor Burton Malkiel entitled "A Random Walk Down Wall Street."

it is IMHO one of the greatest books ever on the stock market -

Burton Malkiel claimed in his bestselling book, that “A blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper's financial pages could select a portfolio that would do just as well as one carefully selected by experts.”

he upset a lot of suits with that quote

Malkiel later amended his ideas and called himself IIRC a "semi strong random walker"

in other words he acknowledged that some pros could beat the market indexes - but he stated that their numbers are very few


.

Disregard. The pic didnt post correctly and killed the whole post.

Sorry!

Quote: Dieter

Beautiful. Sounds like it will be interesting.

Since you said "coin-flip simulator online", I wouldn't even raise a question of bias in method.

I am curious which of the many simulators you're using, if you care to comment. random.org/coins looks interesting, but the output may not be convenient.

I have not picked one yet. If you want to see the old one go back in my blog is still there.

Quote: AZDuffman

I have not picked one yet. If you want to see the old one go back in my blog is still there.

Thanks. I'll have another look through, I'm sure.
Good luck with the project.

Having more time than energy the first day of the three day weekend I figured lets post Week 1 picks now. Bubbled out at my local poker game last night and upset as I folded what would have been the winning hand 3 times! Then again I am careful there as I have never seen so many good hands get drawn out. Last week I hit a royal, another player had 4 of a kind, and a player folded on my set which we rabbit hunted and it would have been a 4 of a kind. So a royal plus 2 4 of a kind in a two-hour VFW tournament? I will ask for a math-head here to figure the odds, but the point being folding there is not the worst thing. But enough commentary.

WEEK 1 COIN FLIP PICKS

DAL at TB TAMPA -7.5, -109
JAX at HOU JAX -3, -106
LAC at WAS WAS +1.5, -109
SEA at IND IND +2.5 -103
NYJ at CAR NYJ +5.5 -107
MIN at CIN CIN + 3.5, -117
AZ at TEN AZ + 3, -110
SF at DET SF -8, -108
PIT at BUF BUF -6.5, -110
PHI at ATL ATL -3.5
CLE at KC CLE + 6.5 -117
GB @ NO NO +4.5 -113
DEN @ NYG NYG +3, -114
MIA at NE NE -3, -108
CHI at LAR CHI +7, -109
BAL at LAV BAL -4.5, -107


The coins have spoken!

The first big observation is the juice. Note only 2 games at the traditional -110 vig. Time will tell if this is just because these are the first lines, but look how many are just a little off at -108 or -109. Think your mill bookie would have taken the time to do this kind of yield management?

For those of you born after 1990, stocks used to be quoted in 1/8s or even 1/16 or even 1/64, but they tried to keep it to 1/8. On the NYSE this was easy to do, for the NASDAQ each broker could put up their own bid and ask. However, if they put up a bid or ask in 1/16 numbers their phone would ring. Someone on the other end would just scream "MOO GOO GAI PAN!" This meant they were making a "Chinese Market" and get back to pricing in"regular" numbers. It was a cartel, but it was what it was.

This has to do with your local sportsbook how? Well, think about it. It is very risky to move a line to generate business or manage risk. The payphones at the legendary Stardust sports book were the busiest in the nation for a reason, the line moved and runners would race to them to call their boss to report it, while between calls they just sat in the book and got fat. (I was born in the wrong era!) Sharps will pounce on a line.

But add or remove a little juice? That is real fine tuning. It is a sign that today's sports books have hired some Wall Street risk managers to manage risk. Which makes sense as the typical sharp bettor (IOW, the one who keeps spreadsheets and all kinds of records) seems to be a white male who could not get a job on Wall Street so treats sports betting same as doping out stocks to pick.

The take from this is that while I am not line shopping for these picks, YOU should consider it, and do not forget to "juice shop" as well. You might not think 2 cents of juice matters, but over a season it will. While it will not be worth the gas if you have to bet live, if you are online having a home made macciato while you make your picks (yes, I am) then we are talking near no effort.

Results after Week 1. Good luck!

WEEK 1 RESULTS

DAL at TB TAMPA -7.5, -109 LOSS
JAX at HOU JAX -3, -106 LOSS
LAC at WAS WAS +1.5, -109 LOSS
SEA at IND IND +2.5 -103 LOSS
NYJ at CAR NYJ +5.5 -107 WIN
MIN at CIN CIN + 3.5, -117 WIN
AZ at TEN AZ + 3, -110 WIN
SF at DET SF -8, -108 PUSH
PIT at BUF BUF -6.5, -110 LOSS
PHI at ATL ATL -3.5 -110 LOSS
CLE at KC CLE + 6.5 -117 WIN
GB @ NO NO +4.5 -113 WIN
DEN @ NYG NYG +3, -114 LOSS
MIA at NE NE -3, -108 LOSS
CHI at LAR CHI +7, -109 LOSS
BAL at LAV BAL -4.5, -107 LOSS


RAW RESULTS: 5-10-1

WAGERED: $1757
WIN: $500
LOSS: $1085
NET: ($585)
REVERSE NET: $564*
STREET VIG OWED: $29**

*REVERSE NET is the money results if every coin flip was reversed.
** STREET VIG is 5 points per week on losses until you are caught up.

Can't call this anything but a wipe-out for the coins. Anyone want to do the stat math and figure out the odds of this bad of a week?

Those who remember the original coin picks years ago will notice I added "reverse net" and "street vig owed." Reverse net is to show what would happen if we exactly reversed the coins. I suspect that what we will find is that the juice will make either way unprofitable. Most of us know not to pick too many games, this experiment should prove it.

Street vig owed is kind of for fun, but also to show a lesson as to what happens if you keep betting on credit with street bookies.

See you all tomorrow for next week's picks. Anyone out there making book go straighten up!

I already have the really bad feeling that this column is going to make the fall fly by fast. It is Wed already?

Last week the coins picked with all the smarts of a reject from the idiot farm. They almost have to do better this week.

NYG at WFT NYG +3.5 (-110)
NE at JETS NE -5.5 (-113)
DEN at JAX DEN -6 (-107)
BUF at MIA BUF -3.5 (-108)
SF at PHI PHI +3.5 (-110)
RAM at IND IND +4 (-109)
LV at PIT PIT -5.5 (-112)
CIN at CHI CHI -3 (-107)
HOU at CLE HOU +12.5 (-113)
NO at CAR NO -3.4 (-110)
MIN at AZ AZ -4.5 (-112)
ATL at TB TB -12.5 (-112)
TEN at SEA TEN +5.5 (-108)
DAL at LAC DAL +3 (-110)
KC at BAL BAL +3,5 (-109)
DET at GB GB -11 (-108)

7 chalk picks vs 9 dogs, that is pretty close to dead even, the coins are showing no bias to either side there this week.

Walking up to the window with $1768 put in play this week. I have $1800 with me so I figure maybe I will try that noodle bar I keep meaning to try.....except it is hardly ever open!

See what happens when you post your picks in advance? You should be like the Big Dogs and post the bets after they happen.
The results will look much better.

NYG at WFT NYG +3.5 (-110) WIN
NE at JETS NE -5.5 (-113) WIN
DEN at JAX DEN -6 (-107) WIN
BUF at MIA BUF -3.5 (-108) WIN
SF at PHI PHI +3.5 (-110) LOSS
RAM at IND IND +4 (-109) WIN
LV at PIT PIT -5.5 (-112) LOSS
CIN at CHI CHI -3 (-107) PUSH
HOU at CLE HOU +12.5 (-113) WIN
NO at CAR NO -3.4 (-110) LOSS
MIN at AZ AZ -4.5 (-112) LOSS
ATL at TB TB -12.5 (-112) LOSS
TEN at SEA TEN +5.5 (-108) WIN
DAL at LAC DAL +3 (-110) PUSH
KC at BAL BAL +3.5 (-109) WIN
DET at GB GB -11 (-108) WIN


RAW RESULTS: 9-5-2
SEASON RAW RESULT: 14-15-3

WAGERED: $1541
WAGERED SEASON: $3298

WIN: $900
WIN SEASON: $1400

LOSS: $556
LOSS SEASON: $1641

NET: $344
NET SEASON: ($241)

REVERSE NET: ($1041)
REVERSE NET SEASON: ($477)

STREET VIG OWED: $12
STREET VIG OWED SEASON: $41*

*Those who have read "Donnie Brasco" will note that you cannot make a partial payment on a street loan, you must pay in full or the vig keeps running. I do not have time to calculate all of that so Street Vig Owed will just be on the net account like if you had a credit card or other revolving line. We will assume the coins play with a benevolent bookie in that respect.

A great week for the coins and a great lesson for us all. Coins basically reversed last weeks wipeout. But what of our bankroll? 9-5 sounds like we should be hitting that new Italian restaurant that replaced the steakhouse, but look at that net! Seems puny. It is all that juice you are paying! This is why your bookie drives a Buick, it lets him afford a nice car but he does not drive a Cadillac lest you start to wonder what he is making.

See you tomorrow with the new coin picks.

You might have a math error. You have your season net as less of a loss than reverse season net. Yet you are 14-15 vs reverse 15-14.

Quote: unJon

You might have a math error. You have your season net as less of a loss than reverse season net. Yet you are 14-15 vs reverse 15-14.

link to original post

The math is weird and driving me crazy. What you have to remember is the losses are more due to the juice than a win is so the loss is bigger than the 1 game suggests. But if someone finds the actual error please let me know. I did the numbers at about 0530 in a room with the screen as the light source and have my mind on getting a MRI later today so I could have missed something.

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: unJon

You might have a math error. You have your season net as less of a loss than reverse season net. Yet you are 14-15 vs reverse 15-14.

link to original post

The math is weird and driving me crazy. What you have to remember is the losses are more due to the juice than a win is so the loss is bigger than the 1 game suggests. But if someone finds the actual error please let me know. I did the numbers at about 0530 in a room with the screen as the light source and have my mind on getting a MRI later today so I could have missed something.

link to original post

I get that. But look at your season results: 14-15-3. And your reverse season results: 15-14-3. Which should have the greater loss?

Another Wednesday morning, time to wake up the coins and get them making their picks. Rachel Bonetta has not yet called to have me do this on TV so only being posted here.

CAR at HOU CAR -8, -110
IND at TEN IND +5.5 -113
ATL at NYG NYG -3, -110
LAC at KC KC -6.5, -110
CIN at PIT CIN +4, -113
BAL at DET BAL -8. -112
NO at NE NE -3. -104
AZ at JAX AZ -7, -115
WFT at BUF WFT +8.5, -110
JETS at DEN JETS +11, -113
MIA at LV LV -3.5, -109
SEA at MIN SEA -2, -110
TB at RAMS TB -1.5, -107
GB at SF GB +3.5, -117
PHI at DAL DAL -4, -110

TOTAL WAGERED: $1663

CAR at HOU CAR -8, -110 WIN
IND at TEN IND +5.5 -113 LOSS
ATL at NYG NYG -3, -110 PUSH
LAC at KC KC -6.5, -110 LOSS
CIN at PIT CIN +4, -113 WIN
BAL at DET BAL -8. -112 LOSS
NO at NE NE -3. -104 LOSS
AZ at JAX AZ -7, -115 WIN
WFT at BUF WFT +8.5, -110 LOSS
JETS at DEN JETS +11, -113 LOSS
MIA at LV LV -3.5, -109 LOSS
SEA at MIN SEA -2, -110 LOSS
TB at RAMS TB -1.5, -107 LOSS
GB at SF GB +3.5, -117 WIN
PHI at DAL DAL -4, -110 WIN




RAW RESULTS: 5-9-1*
SEASON RAW RESULT: 19-24-4

*somehow it looks like I missed picking a game, luckily I cannot get fired for an error rate.

WAGERED: $1553
WAGERED SEASON: $4851

WIN: $500
WIN SEASON: $1900

LOSS: $988
LOSS SEASON: $3467**

**this number does not match last week as I had to correct some math for counting pushes as losses.

NET: ($663)
NET SEASON: ($1567)

REVERSE NET: $335
REVERSE NET SEASON: ($142)

STREET VIG OWED: $33
STREET VIG OWED SEASON: $78

The coins are showing themselves to so far be chicken or feathers. Note though that the reverse is still a net negative after what would have been 2 great weeks. Do not ask me how or what game I missed setting this up this week, much on my mind. In other news I applied to some sportsbook promoter job on craigslist. I doubt it goes anywhere but at least I can say I put my ability to calculate a moneyline to some kind of use.

Next weeks games tomorrow morning. There was no Steelers early line this week, telling me the might be the team who will give bookmakers ulcers the rest of the season. I am thinking they will go 5-12 the way they are looking.

The wizard’ has already analyzed decades of NFL results on one of his pages. The analysis shows that the point-spread lines are extremely accurate over the long term…meaning if you pick randomly you will win very close to 50% of your picks.

If you randomly pick all 256 regular season games, you can be 95.4% confident of winning 128 +/- 32.

JAX at CIN CIN -7.5 (-113)
TEN at JETS TEN -7.5 (-112)
KC at PHI KC -7 (-110)
CAR at DAL CAR +5 (-112)
NYG at NO NO -8.5 (-110)
CLE at MIN CLE -2 (-112)
DET at CHI CHI -3 (-106)
HOU at BUF BUF -16.5 (-110)
IND at MIA MIA -2 (-109)
WAS at ATL ATL +1.5 (-110)
SEA at SF SEA +3 (-117)
AZ at RAMS RAMS -4.5 (-112)
PIT at GB PIT +6.5 (-109)
BAL at DEN DEN -0.5 (-110)
TB at NE NE +7 (-115)
LV at LAC LAC -4 (-108)

WAGERED: $775

Thoughts are two. First, I can never remember seeing a 1/2 point line in my lifetime. I guess they are just not wanting a push if there is a tie as why not make it a pick-em which probably will draw a little more excitement and action. Second, that is a lot of points to lay on the Bills. On one hand it will probably end like 31-10, OTOH, that is a lot of points to lay on the Bills. Might depend on how much the Texans load up on at the Anchor Bar.

JAX at CIN CIN -7.5 (-113) LOSS
TEN at JETS TEN -7.5 (-112) LOSS
KC at PHI KC -7 (-110) WIN
CAR at DAL CAR +5 (-112) LOSS
NYG at NO NO -8.5 (-110) LOSS
CLE at MIN CLE -2 (-112) WIN
DET at CHI CHI -3 (-106) WIN
HOU at BUF BUF -16.5 (-110) WIN
IND at MIA MIA -2 (-109) LOSS
WAS at ATL ATL +1.5 (-110) LOSS
SEA at SF SEA +3 (-117) WIN
AZ at RAMS RAMS -4.5 (-112) LOSS
PIT at GB PIT +6.5 (-109) LOSS
BAL at DEN DEN -0.5 (-110) LOSS
TB at NE NE +7 (-115) WIN
LV at LAC LAC -4 (-108) WIN



RAW RESULTS: 7-9
SEASON RAW RESULT: 26-33-4

WAGERED: $1775
WAGERED SEASON: $6626

WIN: $700
WIN SEASON: $2600

LOSS: $997
LOSS SEASON: $4464


NET: ($297)
NET SEASON: ($1864)

REVERSE NET: $122
REVERSE NET SEASON: ($20)


Almost an exact 50/50 result. I have taken out the vig section as calculating it is getting confused, if I am bored I may figure it for the season at the end of the season. A casual look at this week shows we paid extra juice twice as much as we got a discount. Maybe someone in Vegas can chime in on if extra juice was a thing before sports gambling came to the other states. I think at least part of it is the books thinking "new" bettors will not notice. We probably are getting "new" bettors now, though the day it opened they were asking down the line if people needed help with betting and nobody did, everyone was lined up like we had been doing it all our life.

22% of the season gone and we see that taking either side of the coins is a loss, showing Rosenthal was right about not betting too many games. Running so much money thru the window might get you some comps that the reverse net of -$20 could be overcome.

Tomorrow's coin picks will be posted late as I have surgery in the morning. Not looking forward to.

WEEK 5

RAMS at SEA SEA +2.5 (-110)
JETS at ALT (LONDON) JETS +3.5 (-112)
DET at MIN MIN -8.5 (-110)
NO at WFT WFT +1.5 (-109) HAIL TO THE FOOTBALL TEAM, HAIL VICTORY............
NE at HOU NE -8.5 (-110)
MIA at TB TB -10 (-107)
GB at CIN CIN +3(-109)
DEN at PIT PIT -1 (-110) line moving in PIT favor since Monday
PHI at CAR CAR -4 (-108)
TEN at JAX TEN (-109)
CLE at LAC CLE +2.5 (-110)
CHI at LV CHI +5.5 (-108)
SF at AZ, SF +5 (-108)
GIANTS at DAL DAL
BUF at KC KC -2.5 (-115)
IND at BAL IND +7 (-110)

Still in recovery of sorts so no big commentary on the coin choices. Be well.

WEEK 5

RAMS at SEA SEA +2.5 (-110) LOSS
JETS at ALT (LONDON) JETS +3.5 (-112) LOSS
DET at MIN MIN -8.5 (-110) LOSS
NO at WFT WFT +1.5 (-109) LOSS
NE at HOU NE -8.5 (-110) LOSS
MIA at TB TB -10 (-107) WIN
GB at CIN CIN +3(-109) PUSH
DEN at PIT PIT -1 (-110) WIN
PHI at CAR CAR -4 (-108) LOSS
TEN at JAX TEN (-109) WIN
CLE at LAC CLE +2.5 (-110) LOSS
CHI at LV CHI +5.5 (-108) WIN
SF at AZ, SF +5 (-108) LOSS
GIANTS at DAL DAL WIN
BUF at KC KC -2.5 (-115) LOSS
IND at BAL IND +7 (-110) WIN



RAW RESULTS: 6-9-1
SEASON RAW RESULT: 32-42-4

WAGERED: $1646
WAGERED SEASON: $8272

WIN: $600
WIN SEASON: $3200

LOSS: $992
LOSS SEASON: $5456


NET: ($392)
NET SEASON: ($2256)

REVERSE NET: $246
REVERSE NET SEASON: $266


I am seriously almost ready to just used the reverse of the first 5 picks on the challenge. One thing to note it the reverse net has gone positive, first of either side to do so. For those wannabe hedge fund managers it is a 2.7% ROI. Another way of looking at it is that the book has taken all that action and at most lost less than 3%! Now you know why Rosenthal had that great house on the golf course.

WEEK 6

TB at PHI PHI +7 (-114)
MIA at JAX MIA -3 (-115)
KC at WFT WFT +6.5 (-110)
RAMS at GIANTS GIANTS +9.5 (-112)
HOU at IND IND-10 (-107)
CIN at DET DET+3.5 (-110)
GB at CHI CHI+4.5 (-108)
LAC at BAL LAC+2.5 (-105)
MIN at CAR MIN-1 (-109)
AZ at CLE CLE-3 (-117)
LV at DEN DEN-3.5 (-109)
DAL at NE NE+3.5 (-108)
SEA at PIT PIT-5 (-112)
BUF at TEN TEN +5.5 (-109)

Sorry for a day late, vacation this week has days fading into each other.

WEEK 6

TB at PHI PHI +7 (-114) WIN
MIA at JAX MIA -3 (-115) LOSS
KC at WFT WFT +6.5 (-110) LOSS
RAMS at GIANTS GIANTS +9.5 (-112) LOSS
HOU at IND IND-10 (-107) WIN
CIN at DET DET+3.5 (-110) LOSS
GB at CHI CHI+4.5 (-108) LOSS
LAC at BAL LAC+2.5 (-105) LOSS
MIN at CAR MIN-1 (-109) WIN
AZ at CLE CLE-3 (-117) LOSS
LV at DEN DEN-3.5 (-109) LOSS
DAL at NE NE+3.5 (-108) LOSS
SEA at PIT PIT-5 (-112) LOSS
BUF at TEN TEN +5.5 (-109) WIN


RAW RESULTS: 4-10
SEASON RAW RESULT: 36-52-4

WAGERED: $1545
WAGERED SEASON: $9817

WIN: $400
WIN SEASON: $3600

LOSS: $1106
LOSS SEASON: $6562


NET: ($706)
NET SEASON: ($962)

REVERSE NET: $561
REVERSE NET SEASON: $827


Coins had another terrible week. Reverse though and they would be a nice little score.

WEEK 7

DEN @ CLE CLE -3 (-114)
CAR @ NYG NYG +3 (-114)
JETS @ NE JETS +7.5 (-115)
KC @ TEN KC -5.5 (-115)
WFT @ GB GB -9.5 (-112)
ATL @ MIA ATL -2.5 (-113)
CIN @ BAL BAL -6.5 (-107)
DET @ RAMS RAMS -15.5 (-110)
PHI @ LV PHI +3.5 (-114)
HOU @ AZ AZ -17,5 (-109)
CHI @ TB TB -12.5 (-110)
IND @ SF IND +4 (-108)
NO @ SEA SEA +5.5 (-109)

Three lines of > 10 points WOW!

DEN @ CLE CLE -3 (-114) PUSH
CAR @ NYG NYG +3 (-114) WIN
JETS @ NE JETS +7.5 (-115) LOSS
KC @ TEN KC -5.5 (-115) LOSS
WFT @ GB GB -9.5 (-112) WIN
ATL @ MIA ATL -2.5 (-113) LOSS
CIN @ BAL BAL -6.5 (-107) LOSS
DET @ RAMS RAMS -15.5 (-110) LOSS
PHI @ LV PHI +3.5 (-114) LOSS
HOU @ AZ AZ -17.5 (-109) WIN
CHI @ TB TB -12.5 (-110) WIN
IND @ SF IND +4 (-108) WIN
NO @ SEA SEA +5.5 (-109) WIN


RAW RESULTS: 6-6-1
SEASON RAW RESULT: 42-58-5

WAGERED: $1450
WAGERED SEASON: $11267

WIN: $600
WIN SEASON: $4200

LOSS: $674
LOSS SEASON: $7236


NET: ($74)
NET SEASON: ($1036)

REVERSE NET: ($62)
REVERSE NET SEASON: $765

A 0.500 coin flip week!

Something notable, we seem to have more and more teams going for it on 4th down figuring it does not matter what you lose by it is better to try to catch up. This probably means tilt towards favorites as the bad team is in a bad situation anyways and is more likely to give up the ball in better opponent field position. Thoughts?

WEEK 8

GB @ AZ AZ -6.5 (-109)
CIN @ JETS CIN -10 (-113)
TEN @ IND IND +1 (-107)
RAMS @ HOU HOU +14 (-110)
PIT @ CLE CLE -3.5 (-110)
PHI @ DET DET +3.5 (-113)
SF @ CHI CHI +3,5 (-115)
CAR @ ATL ATL -3 (-108)
MIA @ BUF MIA +13.5 (-112)
NE @ LAC LAC -5.5 (-109)
JAX @ SEA JAX +3.5 (-113)
WAS @ DEN WAS +3 (-113)
TB @ NO TB -5 (-110)
DAL @ MIN DAL -2.5 (-114)
NYG @ KC NYG +9.5 (-112)

Lots of close spreads this week, lets see if the coins do any better.

WEEK 8

GB @ AZ AZ -6.5 (-109) LOSS
CIN @ JETS CIN -10 (-113) LOSS
TEN @ IND IND +1 (-107) LOSS
RAMS @ HOU HOU +14 (-110) LOSS
PIT @ CLE CLE -3.5 (-110) LOSS
PHI @ DET DET +3.5 (-113) LOSS
SF @ CHI CHI +3,5 (-115) LOSS
CAR @ ATL ATL -3 (-108) LOSS
MIA @ BUF MIA +13.5 (-112) LOSS
NE @ LAC LAC -5.5 (-109) LOSS
JAX @ SEA JAX +3.5 (-113) LOSS
WAS @ DEN WAS +3 (-113) LOSS
TB @ NO TB -5 (-110) LOSS
DAL @ MIN DAL -2.5 (-114) WIN
NYG @ KC NYG +9.5 (-112) WIN

RAW RESULTS: 2-13
SEASON RAW RESULT: 44-71-5

WAGERED: $1668
WAGERED SEASON: $12935

WIN: $200
WIN SEASON: $4400

LOSS: $1442
LOSS SEASON: $8678


NET: ($1242)
NET SEASON: ($2278)

REVERSE NET: $1074
REVERSE NET SEASON: $1839

Wow, just wow! The reverse would have been a perfect day game parlay! Lesson for the week is if you are going to use a coin to pick be careful which side you call.

WEEK 9

JETS @ IND IND -10.5 (-109)
ATL @ NO NO -6 (-110)
DEN @ DAL DAL -9.5 (-112)
NE @ CAR CAR +4 (-109)
MIN @ BAL MIN +6 (-113)
CLE @ CIN CIN -2.5 (-110)
BUF @ JAX JAX +14.5 (-114)
HOU @ MIA MIA -6.5 (-110)
LV @ NYG NYG +2.5 (-107)
LAC @ PHI PHI +2.5 (-109)
GB @ KC GB +7.5 (-118) HOLY JUICE, BATMAN!
AZ @ SF SF +1 (-110)
TEN @ RAMS TEN +7.5 (-110)
CHI @ PIT PIT -6 (-114)

Next to impossible for coins to do worse than last week.

WEEK 9

JETS @ IND IND -10.5 (-109) LOSS
ATL @ NO NO -6 (-110) LOSS
DEN @ DAL DAL -9.5 (-115) LOSS
NE @ CAR CAR +4 (-109) LOSS
MIN @ BAL MIN +6 (-113) WIN
CLE @ CIN CIN -2.5 (-110) LOSS
BUF @ JAX JAX +14.5 (-114) WIN
HOU @ MIA MIA -6.5 (-110) WIN
LV @ NYG NYG +2.5 (-107) WIN
LAC @ PHI PHI +2.5 (-109) LOSS
GB @ KC GB +7.5 (-118) WIN
AZ @ SF SF +1 (-110) LOSS
TEN @ RAMS TEN +7.5 (-110) WIN
CHI @ PIT PIT -6 (-114) LOSS


RAW RESULTS: 6-8
SEASON RAW RESULT: 50-79-5

WAGERED: $1558
WAGERED SEASON: $14493

WIN: $600
WIN SEASON: $5000

LOSS: $876
LOSS SEASON: $9554


NET: ($376)
NET SEASON: ($2554)

REVERSE NET: ($72)
REVERSE NET SEASON: $1767


Vig ensured even a winning reverse would be a loss for the week. What on earth happened to the Bills?

WEEK 10

BAL @ MIA MIA +7.5 (-113)
BUF @ JETS BUF -13.5 (-108)
TB @ WAS WAS +9.5 (-112)
ATL @ DAL DAL -9 (-110)
NO @ TEN TEN -3 (-110)
JAX @ IND JAX +10 (-107)
DET @ PIT PIT -9.5 (-110)
CLE @ NE CLE -2 (-108)
MIN @ LAC LAC -2.5 (-112)
CAR @ AZ CAR +10.5 (-112)
PHI @ DEN DEN -3 (-107)
SEA @ GB GB -3.5 (-113)
KC @ LV KC -2.5 (-114)
RAMS @ SF RAMS -4 (-110)

WEEK 10

BAL @ MIA MIA +7.5 (-113) WIN
BUF @ JETS BUF -13.5 (-108) WIN
TB @ WAS WAS +9.5 (-112) WIN
ATL @ DAL DAL -9 (-110) WIN
NO @ TEN TEN -3 (-110) LOSS
JAX @ IND JAX +10 (-107) WIN
DET @ PIT PIT -9.5 (-110) LOSS
CLE @ NE CLE -2 (-108) LOSS
MIN @ LAC LAC -2.5 (-112) LOSS
CAR @ AZ CAR +10.5 (-112) WIN
PHI @ DEN DEN -3 (-107) LOSS
SEA @ GB GB -3.5 (-113) WIN
KC @ LV KC -2.5 (-114) WIN
RAMS @ SF RAMS -4 (-110) LOSS


RAW RESULTS: 8-6
SEASON RAW RESULT: 58-85-5

WAGERED: $1546
WAGERED SEASON: $16039

WIN: $800
WIN SEASON: $5800

LOSS: $657
LOSS SEASON: $10211


NET: $143
NET SEASON: ($2401)

REVERSE NET: ($172)
REVERSE NET SEASON: $1595

WEEK 11

NE @ ATL ATL +6.5 (-108)
NO @ PHI NO +1 (-110)
MIA @ JETS MIA -3 (-114)
WAS @ CAR CAR -3.5 (-112)
IND @ BUF IND +7 (-109)
DET @ CLE CLE -9.5 (-120)
SF @ JAX SF -6.4 (-109)
HOU @ TEN TEN -10 (-112)
GB @ MIN GB -2.5 (-110)
BAL @ CHI BAL -6 (-109)
CIN @ LV CIN -1 (-112)
AZ @ SEA SEA +2.5 (-107)
DAL @ KC DAL +2.5 (-109)
PIT @ LAC PIT +6 (-108)
NYG @ TB TB -11 (-108)

WEEK 11

NE @ ATL ATL +6.5 (-108) LOSS
NO @ PHI NO +1 (-110) LOSS
MIA @ JETS MIA -3 (-114) WIN
WAS @ CAR CAR -3.5 (-112) LOSS
IND @ BUF IND +7 (-109) WIN
DET @ CLE CLE -9.5 (-120) LOSS
SF @ JAX SF -6.4 (-109) WIN
HOU @ TEN TEN -10 (-112) LOSS
GB @ MIN GB -2.5 (-110) LOSS
BAL @ CHI BAL -6 (-109) LOSS
CIN @ LV CIN -1 (-112) WIN
AZ @ SEA SEA +2.5 (-107) LOSS
DAL @ KC DAL +2.5 (-109) LOSS
PIT @ LAC PIT +6 (-108) WIN
NYG @ TB TB -11 (-108) WIN


RAW RESULTS: 6-8
SEASON RAW RESULT: 64-93-5

WAGERED: $1657
WAGERED SEASON: $17696

WIN: $600
WIN SEASON: $6400

LOSS: $997
LOSS SEASON: $11208


NET: ($337)
NET SEASON: ($2738)

REVERSE NET: $140
REVERSE NET SEASON: $1735

WEEK 12

CHI @ DET CHI -3 (-109)
LV @ DAL DAL -7.5 (-107)
BUF @ NO NO +6.5 (-113)
TB @ IND TB -3 (-112)
JETS @ HOU JETS +2.5 (-108)
PHI @ NYG NYG +3.5 (-109)
CAR @ MIA MIA +2 (-110)
TEN @ NE NE -6 (-114)
PIT @ CIN CIN -4.5 (-110)
ATL @ JAX JAX +1.5 (-108)
LAC @ DEN DEN +3 (-113)
RAMS @ GB RAMS +0.5 (-110)
MIN @ SF MIN +3 (-106)
CLE @ BAL BAL -3.5 (-112)
SEA @ WAS SEA +0.5 (-110)

A side note, both of the 0.5 lines you get 3-4 points of juice less for betting the moneyline.

WEEK 12

CHI @ DET CHI -3 (-109) LOSS
LV @ DAL DAL -7.5 (-107) LOSS
BUF @ NO NO +6.5 (-113) LOSS
TB @ IND TB -3 (-112) WIN
JETS @ HOU JETS +2.5 (-108) WIN
PHI @ NYG NYG +3.5 (-109) WIN
CAR @ MIA MIA +2 (-110) WIN
TEN @ NE NE -6 (-114) WIN
PIT @ CIN CIN -4.5 (-110) WIN
ATL @ JAX JAX +1.5 (-108) LOSS
LAC @ DEN DEN +3 (-113) WIN
RAMS @ GB RAMS +0.5 (-110) LOSS
MIN @ SF MIN +3 (-106) LOSS
CLE @ BAL BAL -3.5 (-112) WIN
SEA @ WAS SEA +0.5 (-110) LOSS


RAW RESULTS: 8-7
SEASON RAW RESULT: 72-100-5

WAGERED: $1651
WAGERED SEASON: $19347

WIN: $800
WIN SEASON: $7200

LOSS: $763
LOSS SEASON: $11971


NET: $37
NET SEASON: ($2701)

REVERSE NET: ($188)
REVERSE NET SEASON: $1547

WEEK 13

DAL @ NO NO +4.5 (-112)
NYG @ MIA NYG +4 (-110)
IND @ HOU HOU +9 (-108)
MIN @ DET DET +7 (-112)
PHI @ JETS PHI -6.5 (-113)
AZ @ CHI AZ -8 (-110)
LAC @ CIN CIN -2 (-113)
TB @ ATL ATL +11 (-112)
JAX @ RAMS RAMS -12.5 (-108)
WAS @ LV LV -2.5 (-114)
BAL @ PIT BAL -4 (-108)
SF @ SEA SF -3.5 (-106)
DEN @ KC KC -9.5 (-110)
NE @ BUF BUF -2.5 (-115)

DAL @ NO NO +4.5 (-112) LOSS
NYG @ MIA NYG +4 (-110) LOSS
IND @ HOU HOU +9 (-108) LOSS
MIN @ DET DET +7 (-112) WIN
PHI @ JETS PHI -6.5 (-113) WIN
AZ @ CHI AZ -8 (-110) WIN
LAC @ CIN CIN -2 (-113) LOSS
TB @ ATL ATL +11 (-112) LOSS
JAX @ RAMS RAMS -12.5 (-108) WIN
WAS @ LV LV -2.5 (-114) LOSS
BAL @ PIT BAL -4 (-108) LOSS
SF @ SEA SF -3.5 (-106) LOSS
DEN @ KC KC -9.5 (-110) WIN
NE @ BUF BUF -2.5 (-115) LOSS

RAW RESULTS: 5-9
SEASON RAW RESULT: 77-109-5

WAGERED: $1551
WAGERED SEASON: $20898

WIN: $500
WIN SEASON: $7700

LOSS: $998
LOSS SEASON: $12969


NET: ($498)
NET SEASON: ($3199)

REVERSE NET: $347
REVERSE NET SEASON: $1243

I must be misunderstanding something. How is REVERSE NET: ($651)?

Reverse went 9-5 so should have been a net winner this week not loser.

Quote: unJon

I must be misunderstanding something. How is REVERSE NET: ($651)?

Reverse went 9-5 so should have been a net winner this week not loser.
link to original post

Corrected,

Thank you for catching, I should not have fired my proofreader yesterday!

Anyways glad someone is following the thread!

WEEK 14

PIT @ MIN MIN
DAL @ WAS WAS
JAX @ TEN TEN
SEA @ HOU HOU
LV @ KC KC
NO @ JETS JETS
ATL @ CAR CAR
BAL @ CLE CLE
NYG @ LAC NYG
DET @ DEN DEN
SF @ CIN CIN
BUF @ TB BUF
CHI @ GB GB
RAMS @ AZ RAMS


Yes, you are reading this right, 8 heads in a row and 12 of 14 picking home teams!

]WEEK 14

I somehow missed posting the lines so scratch this week.

WEEK 15

KC @ LAC KC -3 (-108)
LV @ CLE CLE -2.5 (-121) talk about extra juice!
NE @ IND NE +2.5 (-107)
DAL @ NYG NYG +11.5 (-113)
HOU @ JAX JAX -3.5 (-112)
TEN @ PIT PIT +2 (-113)
JETS @ MIA JETS +8.5 (-110)
WAS @ PHI PHI -5 (-112)
AZ @ DET AZ -13.5 (-107)
CAR @ BUF BUF -10.5 (-107)
CIN @ DEN DEN -1.5 (-109)
ATL @ SF. SF -9.5 (-113)
SEA @ RAMS RAMS -5 (-109)
GB @ BAL GB -5 (-109)
NO @ TB TB -10.5 (-112)
MIN @ CHI MIN -3.5 (-112)

WEEK 15

KC @ LAC KC -3 (-108) WIN
LV @ CLE CLE -2.5 (-121) LOSS
NE @ IND NE +2.5 (-107) LOSS
DAL @ NYG NYG +11.5 (-113) LOSS
HOU @ JAX JAX -3.5 (-112) LOSS
TEN @ PIT PIT +2 (-113) WIN
JETS @ MIA JETS +8.5 (-110) WIN
WAS @ PHI PHI -5 (-112) WIN
AZ @ DET AZ -13.5 (-107) LOSS
CAR @ BUF BUF -10.5 (-107) WIN
CIN @ DEN DEN -1.5 (-109) LOSS
ATL @ SF. SF -9.5 (-113) WIN
SEA @ RAMS RAMS -5 (-109) WIN
GB @ BAL GB -5 (-109) LOSS
NO @ TB TB -10.5 (-112) LOSS
MIN @ CHI MIN -3.5 (-112) WIN


RAW RESULTS: 8-8
SEASON RAW RESULT: 85-117-5

WAGERED: $1774
WAGERED SEASON: $22672

WIN: $800
WIN SEASON: $8500

LOSS: $890
LOSS SEASON: $13859


NET: ($90)
NET SEASON: ($289)

REVERSE NET: ($84)
REVERSE NET SEASON: $1159

WEEK 16

SF @ TEN SF -3.5 (-112)
CLE @ GB GB -7 (-114)
IND @ AZ AZ -0.5 (-110)
NYG @ PHI NYG NO LINE
RAMS @ MIN RAMS NO LINE
BUF @ NE BUF +2.5 (-110)
TB @ CAR CAR +11 (-108)
JAX @ JETS JETS -2.5 (-114)
DET @ ATL DET +5.5 (-103)
LAC @ HOU LAC -9 (-110)
BAL @ CIN CIN -2.5 (-110)
CHI @ SEA SEA NO LINE
PIT @ KC KC -7.5 (+100)
DEN @ LV DEN +1.5 (-109)
WAS @ DAL WAS NO LINE
MIA @ NO MIA +3 (-106)

WEEK 16 UPDATED

SF @ TEN SF -3.5 (-112)
CLE @ GB GB -7 (-114)
IND @ AZ AZ -0.5 (-110)
NYG @ PHI NYG +10 (-109)
RAMS @ MIN RAMS -3.5 (-108)
BUF @ NE BUF +2.5 (-110)
TB @ CAR CAR +11 (-108)
JAX @ JETS JETS -2.5 (-114)
DET @ ATL DET +5.5 (-103)
LAC @ HOU LAC -9 (-110)
BAL @ CIN CIN -2.5 (-110)
CHI @ SEA SEA -6.5 (-110)
PIT @ KC KC -7.5 (+100)
DEN @ LV DEN +1.5 (-109)
WAS @ DAL WAS +10.5 (-114)
MIA @ NO MIA +3 (-106)

WEEK 16

SF @ TEN SF -3.5 (-112) LOSS
CLE @ GB GB -7 (-114) LOSS
IND @ AZ AZ -0.5 (-110) LOSS
NYG @ PHI NYG +10 (-109) LOSS
RAMS @ MIN RAMS -3.5 (-108) WIN
BUF @ NE BUF +2.5 (-110) WIN
TB @ CAR CAR +11 (-108) WIN
JAX @ JETS JETS -2.5 (-114) WIN
DET @ ATL DET +5.5 (-103) WIN
LAC @ HOU LAC -9 (-110) LOSS
BAL @ CIN CIN -2.5 (-110) WIN
CHI @ SEA SEA -6.5 (-110) LOSS
PIT @ KC KC -7.5 (+100) WIN
DEN @ LV DEN +1.5 (-109) LOSS
WAS @ DAL WAS +10.5 (-114) LOSS
MIA @ NO MIA +3 (-106) WIN


RAW RESULTS: 8-8
SEASON RAW RESULT: 93-125-5

WAGERED: $1766
WAGERED SEASON: $24438

WIN: $800
WIN SEASON: $9300

LOSS: $885
LOSS SEASON: $14744


NET: ($86)
NET SEASON: ($3023)

REVERSE NET: ($59)
REVERSE NET SEASON: $1100

Second straight week the coins go .500.

WEEK 17

PHI @ WAS WAS +3.5 (-117)
RAMS @ BAL RAMS -3.5 (-110)
TB @ JETS TB -13.5 (-107)
MIA @ TEN TEN -3.5 (-110)
JAX @ NE NE -15.5 (-109)
LV @ IND LV +6.5 (-114)
KC @ CIN KC -5 (-110)
NYG @ CHI CHI -6 (-109)
ATL @ BUF BUF -14.5 (-108)
HOU @ SF SF -112 (-110)
DEN @ LAC LAC -6.5 (-107)
CAR @ NO CAR +6.5 (+100)
DET @ SEA SEA -6.5 (-114)
AZ @ DAL DAL -5.5 (-112)
MIN @ GB MIN +6.5 (-112)
CLE @ PIT PIT +3.5 (-114)