AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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August 29th, 2021 at 7:53:50 AM permalink
I was going to do this again last year but the virus had things so weird I waited. Can not believe it was 10 years ago I did it in my blog. People seemed to like it so lets put out a teaser since I have time to explain it all now and may not next week.

Coin Flip Sports Betting with AZDUFFMAN

The Wall Street Journal used to do the "Dartboard Portfolio" back in the 1990s-2000s. In short, they had a few "experts" pick a stock each, 4 in total. Then they threw darts at the stock tables and picked 4 at as random as darts could be. I forget the timetable, but the gist was do "experts" pick better than darts? Sometimes they did, sometimes they did not. Same concept here but for NFL bets.

Here are the parameters:

1. Every week I will "pick" bets on all NFL games using a coin-flip simulator online. Heads will mean home team tails will mean away team.

2. All bets will be what I will call "$100 neutral." Meaning the standard -100 vig will be a $110 bet. Extra juice say -115 will be a $115 bet. On those stray bets with a positive vig say +105 the bet will be $100. This is to make the math easy.

3. THESE ARE PAPER BETS ONLY! If you take advice from this thread and complain to me my reply will be that it is a good thing you lost as the sportsbook owned can spend your money better than you if you make bets based on coin flips on a forum thread.

4. There is no set bankroll and there will be no progression or betting in units, all bets are flat as shown above.

5. All picks will be posted by Thursday morning to allow for Thursday game picks to be part of things. Lines will be whatever are posted at Rivers Pittsburgh when I post. I will not line shop! I will not consider replies that say they have found a better line! IF YOU CAN FIND A BETTER LINE, BET IT! If you do not get where that sentence comes from, ask someone who remembers the early to mid 1980s.

I will be using Rivers Pittsburgh because that is my local place. I will not line shop because part of the experiment is to show what happens to the guy who goes to just one book and places just flat bets. Also, I am not getting paid enough to line shop. And even if a few of you offered to duke me some crypto for the effort I doubt I will have the time.

6. Weeks results will be posted usually Tuesday morning.

7. Discussion is of course encouraged but I will not reply to the picks themselves, the coins pick what they pick. Similarly, I will not be discussing if things are sufficiently random or anything else about how the experiment is structured. I will not "update" lines that move. Games with no line will be handled in a manner I choose but I will point them out.

See you all next week!
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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August 29th, 2021 at 8:39:13 AM permalink
As long as you are doing that, why not play the NFL Picks game this year and just use five of your coin flips for your picks?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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August 29th, 2021 at 9:13:33 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

As long as you are doing that, why not play the NFL Picks game this year and just use five of your coin flips for your picks?



Didn't see it.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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August 29th, 2021 at 9:27:03 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Didn't see it.



It hasn't started yet, just click on the Sports Betting sub-forum and look at the Official Thread to read the rules. I'll also make sure to PM you when Week 1 Lines are up.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Dieter
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Dieter 
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
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August 30th, 2021 at 3:45:21 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

I will not reply to the picks themselves, the coins pick what they pick. Similarly, I will not be discussing if things are sufficiently random or anything else about how the experiment is structured.



Beautiful. Sounds like it will be interesting.

Since you said "coin-flip simulator online", I wouldn't even raise a question of bias in method.

I am curious which of the many simulators you're using, if you care to comment. random.org/coins looks interesting, but the output may not be convenient.
May the cards fall in your favor.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster 
Joined: May 8, 2015
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August 30th, 2021 at 8:50:34 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman



The Wall Street Journal used to do the "Dartboard Portfolio" back in the 1990s-2000s. In short, they had a few "experts" pick a stock each, 4 in total. Then they threw darts at the stock tables and picked 4 at as random as darts could be. I forget the timetable, but the gist was do "experts" pick better than darts? Sometimes they did, sometimes they did not. Same concept here but for NFL bets.




the dart throwing stock picking thing came from the 1973 book by Professor Burton Malkiel entitled "A Random Walk Down Wall Street."

it is IMHO one of the greatest books ever on the stock market -

Burton Malkiel claimed in his bestselling book, that A blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper's financial pages could select a portfolio that would do just as well as one carefully selected by experts.

he upset a lot of suits with that quote

Malkiel later amended his ideas and called himself IIRC a "semi strong random walker"

in other words he acknowledged that some pros could beat the market indexes - but he stated that their numbers are very few


.
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
mwalz9
mwalz9
Joined: Feb 7, 2012
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August 30th, 2021 at 9:38:02 AM permalink
Disregard. The pic didnt post correctly and killed the whole post.

Sorry!
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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August 30th, 2021 at 12:30:58 PM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Beautiful. Sounds like it will be interesting.

Since you said "coin-flip simulator online", I wouldn't even raise a question of bias in method.

I am curious which of the many simulators you're using, if you care to comment. random.org/coins looks interesting, but the output may not be convenient.



I have not picked one yet. If you want to see the old one go back in my blog is still there.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
Dieter
Administrator
Dieter 
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
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August 30th, 2021 at 1:52:25 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

I have not picked one yet. If you want to see the old one go back in my blog is still there.



Thanks. I'll have another look through, I'm sure.
Good luck with the project.

I hear Karma snickering at me from the peanut gallery.
May the cards fall in your favor.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 226
  • Posts: 12387
September 4th, 2021 at 6:43:19 AM permalink
Having more time than energy the first day of the three day weekend I figured lets post Week 1 picks now. Bubbled out at my local poker game last night and upset as I folded what would have been the winning hand 3 times! Then again I am careful there as I have never seen so many good hands get drawn out. Last week I hit a royal, another player had 4 of a kind, and a player folded on my set which we rabbit hunted and it would have been a 4 of a kind. So a royal plus 2 4 of a kind in a two-hour VFW tournament? I will ask for a math-head here to figure the odds, but the point being folding there is not the worst thing. But enough commentary.

WEEK 1 COIN FLIP PICKS

DAL at TB TAMPA -7.5, -109
JAX at HOU JAX -3, -106
LAC at WAS WAS +1.5, -109
SEA at IND IND +2.5 -103
NYJ at CAR NYJ +5.5 -107
MIN at CIN CIN + 3.5, -117
AZ at TEN AZ + 3, -110
SF at DET SF -8, -108
PIT at BUF BUF -6.5, -110
PHI at ATL ATL -3.5
CLE at KC CLE + 6.5 -117
GB @ NO NO +4.5 -113
DEN @ NYG NYG +3, -114
MIA at NE NE -3, -108
CHI at LAR CHI +7, -109
BAL at LAV BAL -4.5, -107


The coins have spoken!

The first big observation is the juice. Note only 2 games at the traditional -110 vig. Time will tell if this is just because these are the first lines, but look how many are just a little off at -108 or -109. Think your mill bookie would have taken the time to do this kind of yield management?

For those of you born after 1990, stocks used to be quoted in 1/8s or even 1/16 or even 1/64, but they tried to keep it to 1/8. On the NYSE this was easy to do, for the NASDAQ each broker could put up their own bid and ask. However, if they put up a bid or ask in 1/16 numbers their phone would ring. Someone on the other end would just scream "MOO GOO GAI PAN!" This meant they were making a "Chinese Market" and get back to pricing in"regular" numbers. It was a cartel, but it was what it was.

This has to do with your local sportsbook how? Well, think about it. It is very risky to move a line to generate business or manage risk. The payphones at the legendary Stardust sports book were the busiest in the nation for a reason, the line moved and runners would race to them to call their boss to report it, while between calls they just sat in the book and got fat. (I was born in the wrong era!) Sharps will pounce on a line.

But add or remove a little juice? That is real fine tuning. It is a sign that today's sports books have hired some Wall Street risk managers to manage risk. Which makes sense as the typical sharp bettor (IOW, the one who keeps spreadsheets and all kinds of records) seems to be a white male who could not get a job on Wall Street so treats sports betting same as doping out stocks to pick.

The take from this is that while I am not line shopping for these picks, YOU should consider it, and do not forget to "juice shop" as well. You might not think 2 cents of juice matters, but over a season it will. While it will not be worth the gas if you have to bet live, if you are online having a home made macciato while you make your picks (yes, I am) then we are talking near no effort.

Results after Week 1. Good luck!
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others

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