2021 WoV Picks Game Discussion Thread

You didn't include Wizard or mwalz9. They both need to score .500 this week, in order to finish at .500 for the season.

Edit: OMG, I'm not kidding, my reply was before your post regarding this.

I'm going to be completely honest and say that any share of the, "Most Average," prize would be negligible compared to what I am paying out in prizes anyway, so that being the case, I am picking with an intention to improve my record and will include a Confidence Pick if I actually feel good about anything.

Although, should I happen to go 1-4, I'm going to claim that was my plan the entire time.

Quote: Mission146

Although, should I happen to go 1-4, I'm going to claim that was my plan the entire time.
link to original post

That sounds just about what any gambler that I have ever met would say.

Quote: DRich

That sounds just about what any gambler that I have ever met would say.

And my "plan" all along was to do poorly during the regular season contest and then Sneak in and take all the prize money for the Play-offs game.

Quote: gordonm888

I have also added Wizard and Mwalz9 to the list, after inadvertently omitting them. I reckon that they have the highest chances of qualifying for the award of anyone on that list.
link to original post

I don't suppose I'm allowed to bet opposite sides of the same game. Shame I wasted my bye week last week. If I had remembered the "most average" prize, I wouldn't have.

Quote: Wizard

Quote: gordonm888

I have also added Wizard and Mwalz9 to the list, after inadvertently omitting them. I reckon that they have the highest chances of qualifying for the award of anyone on that list.
link to original post

I don't suppose I'm allowed to bet opposite sides of the same game. Shame I wasted my bye week last week. If I had remembered the "most average" prize, I wouldn't have.
link to original post

Rule #9 addresses this:

9.) "Offsetting Picks"

Any Picks made that directly offset one another shall constitute TWO LOSSES and will disqualify the person making such offsetting picks from winning any consolation prize. "Offsetting Picks," are picking two opposite things to happen in the same game.


There’s a loophole if someone needs an 0-5 but let’s talk about that after this week so we can fix for next year.

Quote: unJon

There’s a loophole if someone needs an 0-5 but let’s talk about that after this week so we can fix for next year.

I don't see any loophole, but maybe I just can't come up with one. Since offsetting picks disqualifies you from winning the Most Average Prize or the You Suck Prize, how can an 0-5 score ever help?

Quote: unJon

Quote: Wizard

Quote: gordonm888

I have also added Wizard and Mwalz9 to the list, after inadvertently omitting them. I reckon that they have the highest chances of qualifying for the award of anyone on that list.
link to original post

I don't suppose I'm allowed to bet opposite sides of the same game. Shame I wasted my bye week last week. If I had remembered the "most average" prize, I wouldn't have.
link to original post

Rule #9 addresses this:

9.) "Offsetting Picks"

Any Picks made that directly offset one another shall constitute TWO LOSSES and will disqualify the person making such offsetting picks from winning any consolation prize. "Offsetting Picks," are picking two opposite things to happen in the same game.


There’s a loophole if someone needs an 0-5 but let’s talk about that after this week so we can fix for next year.
link to original post

I don’t think there’s a loophole, but do let us know next week. Rule #5 disqualifies a person from winning consolation prizes if they miss making Picks other than the one allotted Skip Week. If a person fails to make Picks for the first time, then they automatically use their Skip Week and a person may not choose to take 0-5.

There is a loophole that gets you to 0-1 -- just make the Jaguars one of your picks! Not sure how to automatically get the other 4 L's, though.

I wonder whether the following wagering tactic gives you a better than 50/50 chance of going 1-1 on two bets (because of intercorrelation between the bets.)

Choose a game with a large point spread, say >10 points. Bet the Favorite, giving the points against the spread, and also bet the Under on Total Points.

I think it is less likely (probability less than 25%) to win both bets, and also less likely (probability less than 25%) to lose both bets, because there is some correlation between the outcome of "the favorite winning by >10.5 points" and the outcome of "exceeding a Total Points value of say, 45 points."

So, the probability of going 1-1 on those two bets should be better than a random 50/50.

Quote: unJon

There’s a loophole if someone needs an 0-5 but let’s talk about that after this week so we can fix for next year.
link to original post

I think I also have spotted a loophole in the game rules for someone to go 0-5 or maybe even 0-6.

Quote: gordonm888

I wonder whether the following wagering tactic gives you a better than 50/50 chance of going 1-1 on two bets (because of intercorrelation between the bets.)

Choose a game with a large point spread, say >10 points. Bet the Favorite, giving the points against the spread, and also bet the Under on Total Points.

I think it is less likely (probability less than 25%) to win both bets, and also less likely (probability less than 25%) to lose both bets, because there is some correlation between the outcome of "the favorite winning by >10.5 points" and the outcome of "exceeding a Total Points value of say, 45 points."

So, the probability of going 1-1 on those two bets should be better than a random 50/50.
link to original post

That logic makes a lot of sense to me. Early in the season I looked for over/favorite and under/dog combinations to increase variance. Late in the season (given my position) I avoided these picks.

Greetings!

The Week 18 Lines are as follows:

Cowboys (-5) @ Eagles (+5) O/U 43.5
Chiefs (-11.5) @ Broncos (+11.5) O/U 45
Packers (-4) @ Lions (+4) O/U 44.5
Bears (+5.5) @ Vikings (-5.5) O/U 44
Patriots (-6.5) @ Dolphins (+6.5) O/U 40
Colts (-15.5) @ Jaguars (+15.5) O/U 44
Jets (+16) @ Bills (-16) O/U 41
Panthers (+8) @ Buccaneers (-8) O/U 41.5
Titans (-10) @ Texans (+10) O/U 43
Football Team (-7) @ Giants (+7) O/U 38
Saints (-3.5) @ Falcons (+3.5) O/U 40
Steelers (+5) @ Ravens (-5) O/U 41.5
Bengals (+6) @ Browns (-6) O/U 38
Seahawks (+6.5) @ Cardinals (-6.5) O/U 48
49ers (+4.5) @ Rams (-4.5) O/U 44.5
Chargers (-3) @ Raiders (+3) O/U 49.5

Perfection Bonus Log (Fully Updated):

Week 1: UnJon ($10)

Week 3: JohnZimbo ($20)

Week 6: PlayYourCardsRight ($15) & SOOPOO ($15)

Week 7: JohnZimbo ($5) & EdCollins ($5)

Week 9: Unjon ($30)

Week 10 RidetheEdge: ($20)

Week 11 RidetheEdge: ($20)--->This is not a mistake!

Week 12 JW17: ($20)

Week 14 AZDuffman: ($40)

Week 16 JohnnyQ ($20) and Gordonm888 ($20)

Week 17 Scolist: ($20)

Week 18 Perfection Bonus Available: $20

The only note that I have today is that I'm going to send Reminder PM's in about one hour because they are also going to ask whether or not people intend to play the Playoff game. I'm only planning on doing the Playoff Picks Game if there are at least twenty participants.

Quote: Mission146

The only note that I have today is that I'm going to send Reminder PM's in about one hour because they are also going to ask whether or not people intend to play the Playoff game. I'm only planning on doing the Playoff Picks Game if there are at least twenty participants.
link to original post

The above has been done.

Anyone who did not play this game is still welcome to play the Playoff Picks Game, which is a total free roll:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/36791-2021-nfl-playoff-picks-game/#post835669

Simply read the rules in that thread and announce (in that thread) that you intend to play, or alternatively, you can PM me that you intend to play.

I am very glad that I have the luxury of taking a Skip Week, because this seems to me to be an exceptionally tough week to be making picks.

- Talented teams who have made the playoffs, have nothing to gain and are resting players. They might not play hard . Sort of an exhibition game for them (ex: Packers)

- Teams whose incentives to play hard could possibly be changed by the results of other games, either earlier or ongoing.

- Underperforming teams who cannot make the playoffs and have starters who might not play for various reasons. (ex: Browns)

- Players coming off Covid lists or returning from injuries (ex: Derrick Henry.)

It's hard to be surgical with your picks in a week like this one. Again, good luck to everyone.

I am very glad that I have the luxury of taking a Skip Week, because this seems to me to be an exceptionally tough week to be making picks.

- Talented teams who have made the playoffs, have nothing to gain and are resting players. They might not play hard . Sort of an exhibition game for them (ex: Packers)

- Teams whose incentives to play hard could possibly be changed by the results of other games, either earlier or ongoing.

- Underperforming teams who cannot make the playoffs and have starters who might not play for various reasons. (ex: Browns)

- Players coming off Covid lists or returning from injuries (ex: Derrick Henry.)

It's hard to be surgical with your picks in a week like this one. Again, good luck to everyone.

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/jaguars-sponsor-sues-to-have-name-removed-from-game-due-to-impending-clown-invasion-231113471.html

The Jacksonville Jaguars' final game of the season is on track to be, well, a clown show. One sponsor would rather not be involved.

RoofClaim.com, a roofing company located in Georgia with business in Florida, has sued to avoid being emphasized as the primary sponsor of Sunday's finale against the Indianapolis Colts, according to Mark Long of the Associated Press

Quote: gordonm888

Quote: unJon

There’s a loophole if someone needs an 0-5 but let’s talk about that after this week so we can fix for next year.
link to original post

I think I also have spotted a loophole in the game rules for someone to go 0-5 or maybe even 0-6.
link to original post

You cannot pick one and only one game -- see rule 3

That said, I do see a potential loophole to have an 0-5 or 0-6 week.

Quote: Mission146

Greetings!

The Week 18 Lines are as follows:

Cowboys (-5) @ Eagles (+5) O/U 43.5
Chiefs (-11.5) @ Broncos (+11.5) O/U 45
Packers (-4) @ Lions (+4) O/U 44.5
Bears (+5.5) @ Vikings (-5.5) O/U 44
Patriots (-6.5) @ Dolphins (+6.5) O/U 40
Colts (-15.5) @ Jaguars (+15.5) O/U 44
Jets (+16) @ Bills (-16) O/U 41
Panthers (+8) @ Buccaneers (-8) O/U 41.5
Titans (-10) @ Texans (+10) O/U 43
Football Team (-7) @ Giants (+7) O/U 38
Saints (-3.5) @ Falcons (+3.5) O/U 40
Steelers (+5) @ Ravens (-5) O/U 41.5
Bengals (+6) @ Browns (-6) O/U 38
Seahawks (+6.5) @ Cardinals (-6.5) O/U 48
49ers (+4.5) @ Rams (-4.5) O/U 44.5
Chargers (-3) @ Raiders (+3) O/U 49.5

Perfection Bonus Log (Fully Updated):

Week 1: UnJon ($10)

Week 3: JohnZimbo ($20)

Week 6: PlayYourCardsRight ($15) & SOOPOO ($15)

Week 7: JohnZimbo ($5) & EdCollins ($5)

Week 9: Unjon ($30)

Week 10 RidetheEdge: ($20)

Week 11 RidetheEdge: ($20)--->This is not a mistake!

Week 12 JW17: ($20)

Week 14 AZDuffman: ($40)

Week 16 JohnnyQ ($20) and Gordonm888 ($20)

Week 17 Scolist: ($20)

Week 18 Perfection Bonus Available: $20
link to original post

Mission146,

What is the deadline to submit picks for tonights games?

Saturday games can be picked anytime prior to kickoff of the first Saturday game and (obviously) may not be changed, once picked, for any reason.

Greetings!

The Week 18 Picks are as follows:

Mission146:
Jaguars +15.5
Giants +7
Steelers +5
Raiders +3-CONFIDENCE
49ers +4.5

AZDuffman:
Giants UNDER 38
Steelers +5
Broncos +11.5
Bengals +6
Bills -16 CONFIDENCE

SOOPOO:
Rams -4.5 Confidence
Lions + 4
Jaguars +15.5
Jets +16
Falcons +3.5

Joeman:
Jaguars +15.5
Raiders +3
Browns -6
Dolphins +6.5
Steelers +5 -Confidence

Gordonm888:
Skips Week 18

Sparty10k:
Patriots -6.5
Football Team -7
Bengals +6
Seahawks under 48
Chargers -3–confidence

RidetheEdge:
Skips Week 18

MWalz9:
Chiefs (-11.5)
CHIEFS UNDER 45
Colts (-15.5)
COLTS UNDER 44
Titans (-10) CONFIDENCE

Wizard:
Lions under 44.5
Bears over 44
Patriots under 40 confidence
Colts over 44
Jets under 41

JohnnyQ:
Packers (-4)
Ravens (-5)
Bengals (+6) CONFIDENCE
Raiders (+3)
Chargers U 49.5

IndyJeffrey
Eagles +5
Lions +4
Colts Under 44
Jets +16
Browns -6

PlayYourCardsRight:
Vikings -5.5
Patriots -6.5 CONFIDENCE
Titans -10
Ravens -5
Cardinals -6.5

scolist:
Lions +4 Confidence
Ravens -5
Texans +10
Chargers Over 49.5
Jets Under 41

JW17:
Broncos +11.5 Confidence
Cardinals (-6.5)
Chargers (-3)
Dolphins (+6.5)
Buccaneers (-8)

EdCollins
Lions +4 Confidence
Raiders +3
49ers +4.5
Football Team +7
Steelers +5

JML24:
Buccaneers -8
Saints -3.5
Seahawks +6.5
49ers +4.5
Raiders +3 CONFIDENCE

FourFiveFace:
Dolphins +6.5
Jaguars +15.5
Giants +7
Seahawks +6.5-Confidence
Raiders +3

miplet:
Bears +5.5
Dolphins +6.5
Steelers +5
Seahawks +6.5-confidence
49ers +4.5

GenWyzgy:
Bears +5.5
Buccaneers -8
Falcons +3.5
Ravens -5 CONFIDENCE
49ers +4.5

JohnZimbo:
Bills -16
Bills under 41
Football Team -7
Football team under 38
Colts under 44

unJon:
Jaguars +15.5
Steelers +5-confidence
Seahawks +6.5
49ers +4.5
Packers -4

Quote: Mission146

Quote: unJon

Quote: Wizard

Quote: gordonm888

I have also added Wizard and Mwalz9 to the list, after inadvertently omitting them. I reckon that they have the highest chances of qualifying for the award of anyone on that list.
link to original post

I don't suppose I'm allowed to bet opposite sides of the same game. Shame I wasted my bye week last week. If I had remembered the "most average" prize, I wouldn't have.
link to original post

Rule #9 addresses this:

9.) "Offsetting Picks"

Any Picks made that directly offset one another shall constitute TWO LOSSES and will disqualify the person making such offsetting picks from winning any consolation prize. "Offsetting Picks," are picking two opposite things to happen in the same game.


There’s a loophole if someone needs an 0-5 but let’s talk about that after this week so we can fix for next year.
link to original post

I don’t think there’s a loophole, but do let us know next week. Rule #5 disqualifies a person from winning consolation prizes if they miss making Picks other than the one allotted Skip Week. If a person fails to make Picks for the first time, then they automatically use their Skip Week and a person may not choose to take 0-5.
link to original post

Here’s the 0-5 loophole I saw.

Quote:

Rule 2B. This has never happened, but if you make, "Early Game," picks and then send a new set of Picks after the, "Early Game," has kicked off, you will receive a record of 0-5 for that week.

So if there are Saturday or London games, you send in picks with the early game. Then later change picks. Get 0-5. No mention of being disqualified from the consolation prizes.

Thanks! I'll have to add a sentence after that in the Official Rules. I don't think anybody actually attempted to do that, so I'll add it now (When I start a new game, I generally copy/paste the rules from the previous game and make edits).

Week 18 Results

Mission146 (5-1)
JAGUARS +15.5 (win)
GIANTS +7 (loss)
STEELERS +5 (win)
RAIDERS +3 CONFIDENCE (win)
49ERS +4.5 (win)

AZDuffman (6-0)
GIANTS UNDER 38 (win)
STEELERS +5 (win)
BRONCOS +11.5 (win)
BENGALS +6 (win)
BILLS -16 CONFIDENCE (win)

SOOPOO (2-4)
RAMS -4.5 CONFIDENCE (loss)
LIONS + 4 (win)
JAGUARS +15.5 (win)
JETS +16 (loss)
FALCONS +3.5 (loss)

Joeman (5-1)
JAGUARS +15.5 (win)
RAIDERS +3 (win)
BROWNS -6 (loss)
DOLPHINS +6.5 (win)
STEELERS +5 CONFIDENCE (win)

Sparty10k (2-4)
PATRIOTS -6.5 (loss)
FOOTBALL TEAM -7 (win)
BENGALS +6 (win)
SEAHAWKS UNDER 48 (loss)
CHARGERS -3 CONFIDENCE (loss)

MWalz9 (1-5)
CHIEFS (-11.5) (loss)
CHIEFS UNDER 45 (loss)
COLTS (-15.5) (loss)
COLTS UNDER 44 (win)
TITANS (-10) CONFIDENCE (loss)

Wizard (2-4)
LIONS UNDER 44.5 (loss)
BEARS OVER 44 (win)
PATRIOTS UNDER 40 CONFIDENCE (loss)
COLTS OVER 44 (loss)
JETS UNDER 41 (win)

JohnnyQ (3-3)
PACKERS (-4) (loss)
RAVENS (-5) (loss)
BENGALS (+6) CONFIDENCE (win)
RAIDERS (+3) (win)
CHARGERS UNDER 49.5 (loss)

IndyJeffrey (2-3)
EAGLES +5 (loss)
LIONS +4 (win)
COLTS UNDER 44 (win)
JETS +16 (loss)
BROWNS -6 (loss)

PlayYourCardsRight (1-5)
VIKINGS -5.5 (win)
PATRIOTS -6.5 CONFIDENCE (loss)
TITANS -10 (loss)
RAVENS -5 (loss)
CARDINALS -6.5 (loss)

scolist (5-1)
LIONS +4 CONFIDENCE (win)
RAVENS -5 (loss)
TEXANS +10 (win)
CHARGERS OVER 49.5 (win)
JETS UNDER 41 (win)

JW17 (4-2)
BRONCOS +11.5 CONFIDENCE (win)
CARDINALS (-6.5) (loss)
CHARGERS (-3) (loss)
DOLPHINS (+6.5) (win)
BUCCANEERS (-8) (win)

EdCollins (6-0)
LIONS +4 CONFIDENCE (win)
RAIDERS +3 (win)
49ERS +4.5 (win)
FOOTBALL TEAM -7 (win)
STEELERS +5 (win)

JML24 (6-0)
BUCCANEERS -8 (win)
SAINTS -3.5 (win)
SEAHAWKS +6.5 (win)
49ERS +4.5 (win)
RAIDERS +3 CONFIDENCE (win)

FourFiveFace (5-1)
DOLPHINS +6.5 (win)
JAGUARS +15.5 (win)
GIANTS +7 (loss)
SEAHAWKS +6.5 CONFIDENCE (win)
RAIDERS +3 (win)

miplet (5-1)
BEARS +5.5 (loss)
DOLPHINS +6.5 (win)
STEELERS +5 (win)
SEAHAWKS +6.5 CONFIDENCE (win)
49ERS +4.5 (win)

GenWyzgy (2-4)
BEARS +5.5 (loss)
BUCCANEERS -8 (win)
FALCONS +3.5 (loss)
RAVENS -5 CONFIDENCE (loss)
49ERS +4.5 (win)

JohnZimbo (5-0)
BILLS -16 (win)
BILLS UNDER 41 (win)
FOOTBALL TEAM -7 (win)
FOOTBALL TEAM UNDER 38 (win)
COLTS UNDER 44 (win)

unJon (5-1)
JAGUARS +15.5 (win)
STEELERS +5 CONFIDENCE (win)
SEAHAWKS +6.5 (win)
49ERS +4.5 (win)
PACKERS -4 (loss)


UNOFFICIAL FINAL STANDINGS

Name	Wins	Losses	%
JohnZimbo	71	36	66.36%
RideTheEdge	67	34	66.34%
unJon	65	41	61.32%
EdCollins	64	42	60.38%
jml24	51	39	56.67%
scolist	54	44	55.10%
miplet	56	46	54.90%
Mission146	54	47	53.47%
PlayYourCardsRight	53	47	53.00%
Joeman	56	50	52.83%
FourFiveFace	55	52	51.40%
IndyJeffrey	53	51	50.96%
AZDuffman	50	49	50.51%
JW17	51	50	50.50%
Gordonm888	50	50	50.00%
Wizard	49	51	49.00%
mwalz9	49	53	48.04%
SOOPOO	49	58	45.79%
JohnnyQ	44	56	44.00%
GenWyzgy	43	58	42.57%
Sparty10k	40	67	37.38%
Totals	1,124	1,021	52.40%

Record of Skip Weeks

miplet: Week 2
JW17: Week 6, Week 17
jml24: Week 8
Mission146: Week 9
PlayYourCardsRight: Week 12
scolist: Week 12
GenWyzgy: Week 16
mwalz9: Week 16
AZDuffman: Week 17
JohnnyQ: Week 17
Wizard: Week 17
Gordonm888: Week 18
RideTheEdge: Week 18

JohnZimbo pulls it off by a hair! Ride the edge may question the skip week choice.

Congratulations to all!

Thanks for Mission for running this fun pool with a large overlay. And thanks to EdCollins for the tables that make it so easy to follow!! And thanks also to him for not picking one more winner over the season to keep me in third by a hair!

Quote: unJon

JohnZimbo pulls it off by a hair! Ride the edge may question the skip week choice.

Hat's off to Johnzimbo for going perfect that last week to catch me. It took a perfect performance, so I can't regret skipping the week to compel excellence.

I echo unJon's appreciation to Mission and EdCollins for all the work and treasure to make this happen.

Steve

Here's the final Pick Consensus Breakdown, if anyone is interested.

Our two leaders each picked favorites a bit more than underdogs, and each picked Unders much more often than Overs.

I miss being Mr. Average because I used the confidence pick!

Thank you Mission146 and EdCollins for the Magical VooDoo that you do-do so well!

Congrats to all the Winners both big and small!

Congratulations to half of the people who played this week on a Perfection Bonus!

Not half, but it was EdCollins, AZDuffman and JML24!

Quote: EdCollins

UNOFFICIAL FINAL STANDINGS

Name	Wins	Losses	%
JohnZimbo	71	36	66.36%
RideTheEdge	67	34	66.34%
unJon	65	41	61.32%
EdCollins	64	42	60.38%
jml24	51	39	56.67%
scolist	54	44	55.10%
miplet	56	46	54.90%
Mission146	54	47	53.47%
PlayYourCardsRight	53	47	53.00%
Joeman	56	50	52.83%
FourFiveFace	55	52	51.40%
IndyJeffrey	53	51	50.96%
AZDuffman	50	49	50.51%
JW17	51	50	50.50%
Gordonm888	50	50	50.00%
Wizard	49	51	49.00%
mwalz9	49	53	48.04%
SOOPOO	49	58	45.79%
JohnnyQ	44	56	44.00%
GenWyzgy	43	58	42.57%
Sparty10k	40	67	37.38%
Totals	1,124	1,021	52.40%

link to original post

Greetings!

First and foremost, congratulations to our Prognosticator Supreme, JohnZimbo, on the 5-0 (or 6-0) week he needed to lock up the first place finish for this year's contest!

Personally, I think that RidetheEdge made the best play in Week 18. I tend to try not to be results-oriented in my thinking, so I assume RidetheEdge figured JohnZimbo was less likely to go 5-0 (or 6-0) than he was to just straight up out pick RidetheEdge, and even if JohnZimbo did go 5-0, RidetheEdge would still need at least a 4-1 week just to improve his winning percentage.

All the same, congratulations to RideTheEdge on a very well-earned second place finish!

I'd like to congratulate UnJon on third place, which is the final paying spot as far as having a good record goes. That's a pretty wild finish because it seems to me that UnJon has been sitting in third for several weeks now, but I could be mistaken.

Congratulations to GordonM888 on being the most milquetoast player in this game! It's perhaps fitting that his record for the final week (0 Wins, 0 Losses) is the same thing he had as to start the season and also his net result for all the games he did pick. That's about as average as it gets!

Finally, congratulations (?) to Sparty10k on....damn your picks were putrid. Were you trying to lose from the outset? If you were coin flips, you'd be remarkable, but since you're a man...it just means that you suck at picking NFL Games. The good news is that it pays to suck in this game!

Also, congratulations to our many Perfection Bonus winners:

Perfection Bonus Log (Fully Updated):

Week 1: UnJon ($10)

Week 3: JohnZimbo ($20)

Week 6: PlayYourCardsRight ($15) & SOOPOO ($15)

Week 7: JohnZimbo ($5) & EdCollins ($5)

Week 9: Unjon ($30)

Week 10 RidetheEdge: ($20)

Week 11 RidetheEdge: ($20)--->This is not a mistake!

Week 12 JW17: ($20)

Week 14 AZDuffman: ($40)

Week 16 JohnnyQ ($20) and Gordonm888 ($20)

Week 17 Scolist: ($20)

Week 18: EDCollins ($7), AZDuffman ($7), JML24 ($7)

TOTAL WINNINGS

PERFECTION BONUS WINNINGS:

AZDuffman: $47
UnJon: $40
RidetheEdge: $40
JohnZimbo: $25
JohnnyQ: $20
Gordonm888: $20
Scolist: $20
JW17: $20
PlayYourCardsRight: $15
SOOPOO: $15
EdCollins: $12
JML24: $7

That looks like it comes out right, so now we will just add in the other prizes:

1st Place: JohnZimbo---$300 + Entry Fees
2nd Place: RidetheEdge---$175
3rd Place: UnJon---$25
Most Average: Gordonm888----$75
You Suck: Sparty10k----$75

TOTAL WINNINGS

1.) JohnZimbo: $325 + ENTRY FEES
2.) RidetheEdge $190 + ($25 Entry Fee Paid by Me to JohnZimbo)
3.) Gordonm888 $70 + ($25 Entry Fee Paid by Me to JohnZimbo)
4.) Sparty10K $50 + ($25 Entry Fee Paid by Me to JohnZimbo)
5.) Unjon $40 + ($25 Entry Fee Paid by Me to JohnZimbo)
6.) AZDuffman: $22 + ($25 Entry Fee Paid by Me to JohnZimbo)
7.) JohnnyQ $20---Arrangement TBD
8.) Scolist: $20---Arrangement TBD
9.) JW17: $20---Arrangement TBD
10.) PlayYourCards Right: $15---Arrangement TBD
11.) SOOPOO: $15---Arrangement TBD
12.) EdCollins $12---Arrangement TBD
13.) JML24: $7---Arrangement TBD

Owes $25 Entry Fee to JohnZimbo (No Other Action Needed)
14.) FastEddie (To be Paid by Mission146)
15.) Miplet
16.) Joeman
17.) FourFiveFace
18.) IndyJeffrey
19.) Wizard
20.) mWalz9
21.) GenWyzgy

PAYOUT PROCEDURE

A.) If your name appears in numbers #14-#21, then please reach out to JohnZimbo and arrange to pay him your $25 Entry Fee at your earliest convenience.

B.) If you name appears in numbers #7-#13, then you have winnings, but they are insufficient to cover your Entry Fee. I can either send you your winnings and you send JohnZimbo $25, or we can work something out where you send me $25 - (Winnings) and I pay $25 to JohnZimbo on your behalf. PM's to this effect will be sent later this evening.

C.) If your name appears in #1-#6, then you have won more than prizes sufficient to cover your Entry Fee and I will send you PM's later this evening to determine how you want to get paid.

NOTE: I usually don't do payouts until after the Super Bowl in case there is/are a duplicative winner(s) relative to the Playoffs Game, but chances are that I will go ahead and get the payouts all arranged this week and do all of the payouts one day next week---most likely Wednesday 1/19/21.

Congratulations to everyone again! Please keep an eye on your PM Inbox as I will be sending everyone a PM tonight explaining their situation in the contest!

Quote: Mission146

Quote: EdCollins

UNOFFICIAL FINAL STANDINGS

Name	Wins	Losses	%
JohnZimbo	71	36	66.36%
RideTheEdge	67	34	66.34%
unJon	65	41	61.32%
EdCollins	64	42	60.38%
jml24	51	39	56.67%
scolist	54	44	55.10%
miplet	56	46	54.90%
Mission146	54	47	53.47%
PlayYourCardsRight	53	47	53.00%
Joeman	56	50	52.83%
FourFiveFace	55	52	51.40%
IndyJeffrey	53	51	50.96%
AZDuffman	50	49	50.51%
JW17	51	50	50.50%
Gordonm888	50	50	50.00%
Wizard	49	51	49.00%
mwalz9	49	53	48.04%
SOOPOO	49	58	45.79%
JohnnyQ	44	56	44.00%
GenWyzgy	43	58	42.57%
Sparty10k	40	67	37.38%
Totals	1,124	1,021	52.40%

link to original post

Greetings!

First and foremost, congratulations to our Prognosticator Supreme, JohnZimbo, on the 5-0 (or 6-0) week he needed to lock up the first place finish for this year's contest!

Personally, I think that RidetheEdge made the best play in Week 18. I tend to try not to be results-oriented in my thinking, so I assume RidetheEdge figured JohnZimbo was less likely to go 5-0 (or 6-0) than he was to just straight up out pick RidetheEdge, and even if JohnZimbo did go 5-0, RidetheEdge would still need at least a 4-1 week just to improve his winning percentage.

All the same, congratulations to RideTheEdge on a very well-earned second place finish!

I'd like to congratulate UnJon on third place, which is the final paying spot as far as having a good record goes. That's a pretty wild finish because it seems to me that UnJon has been sitting in third for several weeks now, but I could be mistaken.

Congratulations to GordonM888 on being the most milquetoast player in this game! It's perhaps fitting that his record for the final week (0 Wins, 0 Losses) is the same thing he had as to start the season and also his net result for all the games he did pick. That's about as average as it gets!

Finally, congratulations (?) to Sparty10k on....damn your picks were putrid. Were you trying to lose from the outset? If you were coin flips, you'd be remarkable, but since you're a man...it just means that you suck at picking NFL Games. The good news is that it pays to suck in this game!

Also, congratulations to our many Perfection Bonus winners:

Perfection Bonus Log (Fully Updated):

Week 1: UnJon ($10)

Week 3: JohnZimbo ($20)

Week 6: PlayYourCardsRight ($15) & SOOPOO ($15)

Week 7: JohnZimbo ($5) & EdCollins ($5)

Week 9: Unjon ($30)

Week 10 RidetheEdge: ($20)

Week 11 RidetheEdge: ($20)--->This is not a mistake!

Week 12 JW17: ($20)

Week 14 AZDuffman: ($40)

Week 16 JohnnyQ ($20) and Gordonm888 ($20)

Week 17 Scolist: ($20)

Week 18: EDCollins ($7), AZDuffman ($7), JML24 ($7)

TOTAL WINNINGS

PERFECTION BONUS WINNINGS:

AZDuffman: $47
UnJon: $40
RidetheEdge: $40
JohnZimbo: $25
JohnnyQ: $20
Gordonm888: $20
Scolist: $20
JW17: $20
PlayYourCardsRight: $15
SOOPOO: $15
EdCollins: $12
JML24: $7

That looks like it comes out right, so now we will just add in the other prizes:

1st Place: JohnZimbo---$300 + Entry Fees
2nd Place: RidetheEdge---$175
3rd Place: UnJon---$25
Most Average: Gordonm888----$75
You Suck: Sparty10k----$75

TOTAL WINNINGS

1.) JohnZimbo: $325 + ENTRY FEES
2.) RidetheEdge $190 + ($25 Entry Fee Paid by Me to JohnZimbo)
3.) Gordonm888 $70 + ($25 Entry Fee Paid by Me to JohnZimbo)
4.) Sparty10K $50 + ($25 Entry Fee Paid by Me to JohnZimbo)
5.) Unjon $40 + ($25 Entry Fee Paid by Me to JohnZimbo)
6.) AZDuffman: $22 + ($25 Entry Fee Paid by Me to JohnZimbo)
7.) JohnnyQ $20---Arrangement TBD
8.) Scolist: $20---Arrangement TBD
9.) JW17: $20---Arrangement TBD
10.) PlayYourCards Right: $15---Arrangement TBD
11.) SOOPOO: $15---Arrangement TBD
12.) EdCollins $12---Arrangement TBD
13.) JML24: $7---Arrangement TBD

Owes $25 Entry Fee to JohnZimbo (No Other Action Needed)
14.) FastEddie (To be Paid by Mission146)
15.) Miplet
16.) Joeman
17.) FourFiveFace
18.) IndyJeffrey
19.) Wizard
20.) mWalz9
21.) GenWyzgy

PAYOUT PROCEDURE

A.) If your name appears in numbers #14-#21, then please reach out to JohnZimbo and arrange to pay him your $25 Entry Fee at your earliest convenience.

B.) If you name appears in numbers #7-#13, then you have winnings, but they are insufficient to cover your Entry Fee. I can either send you your winnings and you send JohnZimbo $25, or we can work something out where you send me $25 - (Winnings) and I pay $25 to JohnZimbo on your behalf. PM's to this effect will be sent later this evening.

C.) If your name appears in #1-#6, then you have won more than prizes sufficient to cover your Entry Fee and I will send you PM's later this evening to determine how you want to get paid.

NOTE: I usually don't do payouts until after the Super Bowl in case there is/are a duplicative winner(s) relative to the Playoffs Game, but chances are that I will go ahead and get the payouts all arranged this week and do all of the payouts one day next week---most likely Wednesday 1/19/21.
link to original post

Thanks for all your work. But your first place analysis was incorrect. Had RTE gone 4-2, his percentage WOULD have increased. As a matter of fact, he would have tied for first place with a 4-2 record. That doesn’t change your correct conclusion that he made the correct strategic move by taking a bye week.

Quote: SOOPOO

Thanks for all your work. But your first place analysis was incorrect. Had RTE gone 4-2, his percentage WOULD have increased. As a matter of fact, he would have tied for first place with a 4-2 record. That doesn’t change your correct conclusion that he made the correct strategic move by taking a bye week.
link to original post

Same exact record in that event, you're quite right!

Thank you for playing and also thank you to everyone who played! I'm looking forward to the Playoff Picks Game since we should have at least twenty players this year and then it seems like we will barely have a break before it is time for the March Madness game.

I haven't exactly figured out the rules for a March Madness game. It might be a somewhat generic bracket game, or I might incorporate a scoring system by which advancing higher-seeded teams also matters---probably the latter because you can play a straight up bracket game anywhere.

Quote: Mission146

Quote: SOOPOO

Thanks for all your work. But your first place analysis was incorrect. Had RTE gone 4-2, his percentage WOULD have increased. As a matter of fact, he would have tied for first place with a 4-2 record. That doesn’t change your correct conclusion that he made the correct strategic move by taking a bye week.
link to original post

Same exact record in that event, you're quite right!

Thank you for playing and also thank you to everyone who played! I'm looking forward to the Playoff Picks Game since we should have at least twenty players this year and then it seems like we will barely have a break before it is time for the March Madness game.

I haven't exactly figured out the rules for a March Madness game. It might be a somewhat generic bracket game, or I might incorporate a scoring system by which advancing higher-seeded teams also matters---probably the latter because you can play a straight up bracket game anywhere.
link to original post

My favorite NCAA bracket requires assigning a score from 1 to 64 (or 68) to each team and each time that team advances you get that many points. Very simple for players as they only do it once when they fill out their brackets and the scoring is very simple with very few ties.

Quote: DRich

My favorite NCAA bracket requires assigning a score from 1 to 64 (or 68) to each team and each time that team advances you get that many points. Very simple for players as they only do it once when they fill out their brackets and the scoring is very simple with very few ties.
link to original post

I take it you will play the March Madness game?

I'm thinking of doing not exactly that, but something along those lines.

Basically, you would earn points for advancing teams correctly AND the team's seed would also play a factor. I'm thinking something like this:

Fixed Points

Advance Team to Round of 32 Correctly: 1 Point Per Team
Advance Team to Sweet 16 Correctly: 2 Points Per Team
Advance Team to Elite Eight Correctly: 4 Points Per Team
Advance Team to Final Four Correctly: 6 Points Per Team
Advance Team to Championship Game: 10 Points Per Team
Pick the Correct Winner: 20 Points

In addition to these accumulated points, players would receive additional points if the teams that they advance correctly are higher-seeded teams. In addition to the points mentioned above, players will receive additional points for each advancing team that are equal to the team's seed divided by two:

Thus, if you pick a 16 ranked team to advance to the Round of 32 and are correct, then you would get the automatic one point for advancing a team, but you would also get eight extra points because you had a 16 seed advancing, so you would receive nine points for that advancement.

As far as tiebreakers are concerned, if there are any tiebreakers that are even possibly needed in advance of the Championship game, (it will be easy to determine if ties are impossible) then players will be asked to pick the exact score of the Championship game with the priority order as follows:

A.) Picking the correct champion.
B.) Closest in margin of victory.
C.) Closest in Game Total score. (Both teams)

Quote: Mission146

Quote: DRich

My favorite NCAA bracket requires assigning a score from 1 to 64 (or 68) to each team and each time that team advances you get that many points. Very simple for players as they only do it once when they fill out their brackets and the scoring is very simple with very few ties.
link to original post

I take it you will play the March Madness game?

I'm thinking of doing not exactly that, but something along those lines.

Basically, you would earn points for advancing teams correctly AND the team's seed would also play a factor. I'm thinking something like this:

Fixed Points

Advance Team to Round of 32 Correctly: 1 Point Per Team
Advance Team to Sweet 16 Correctly: 2 Points Per Team
Advance Team to Elite Eight Correctly: 4 Points Per Team
Advance Team to Final Four Correctly: 6 Points Per Team
Advance Team to Championship Game: 10 Points Per Team
Pick the Correct Winner: 20 Points

In addition to these accumulated points, players would receive additional points if the teams that they advance correctly are higher-seeded teams. In addition to the points mentioned above, players will receive additional points for each advancing team that are equal to the team's seed divided by two:

Thus, if you pick a 16 ranked team to advance to the Round of 32 and are correct, then you would get the automatic one point for advancing a team, but you would also get eight extra points because you had a 16 seed advancing, so you would receive nine points for that advancement.

As far as tiebreakers are concerned, if there are any tiebreakers that are even possibly needed in advance of the Championship game, (it will be easy to determine if ties are impossible) then players will be asked to pick the exact score of the Championship game with the priority order as follows:

A.) Picking the correct champion.
B.) Closest in margin of victory.
C.) Closest in Game Total score. (Both teams)
link to original post

I like that. Yes, I will play if it only requires picking once. The weekly games are just too much for me as I know I will accidentally skip weeks.

By the way, I don't seem to remember who used to post up the lifetime records in this game, but are those handy?

I have returned after a weekend trip in which I was offline. I am amazed that

a) the average win rate of NFL picks in week 18 was our best of the year.

b) no other contestant tied me at 0.500 for most mediocre. I feel particular empathy for AZDuffman who needed a 5-0 in Week 18 to finish at 0.500 but went 6-0 because he made a confidence pick.

Congrats for everyone who won some sort of payout, and especially to JohnZimbo for 1st place and to RideTheEdge, UnJon and EdCollins for such high win percentages.

Shout out to Mission and Ed for their work, creativity and diligence that produces an amazingly fun contest. Thank you very much.

Quote: gordonm888

b) no other contestant tied me at 0.500 for most mediocre. I feel particular empathy for AZDuffman who needed a 5-0 in Week 18 to finish at 0.500 but went 6-0 because he made a confidence pick.

I figured better to go like 4-2 to get close. Like going for the 2 point conversion as a coach and realizing it cost you your block pool square. How did I know I would get them all right?!

Quote: unJon

JohnZimbo pulls it off by a hair! Ride the edge may question the skip week choice.

Quote: Mission146

Personally, I think that RidetheEdge made the best play in Week 18. I tend to try not to be results-oriented in my thinking, so I assume RidetheEdge figured JohnZimbo was less likely to go 5-0 (or 6-0) than he was to just straight up out pick RidetheEdge...

I created a simple model prior to week 17 that informed my decision to skip week 18. I decided to write that up in a separate thread https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/36838-modeling-the-wov-nfl-picks-game-or-after-the-fact-rationale-to-skip-week-18/#post837582.

Short answer based on some simplifying assumptions, I think I had a 90%+ chance of winning by skipping week 18, but only 70% to 85% chance if I made picks the final week, with my best guess being just under 80%. See the linked post to suffer through endless detail.

In case I haven't said so publicly yet, congratulations to Johnzimbo for a great season.

My eyeball said you did well to skip, but that was a most impressive analysis you did to confirm the merit of your decision!

I went 5-0 to barely squeak past Ridetheedge and, truth be told, I miscalculated and thought 4-1 would do it. After I went 3-0 in the early games I checked my math and thought crap I need to Buffalo under 41 and to win by 17 or more...and they were up 13-10 at the time so I figured I was cooked. Somehow they won 27-10 and covered by one point.

Quote: Johnzimbo

I went 5-0 to barely squeak past Ridetheedge and, truth be told, I miscalculated and thought 4-1 would do it. After I went 3-0 in the early games I checked my math and thought crap I need to Buffalo under 41 and to win by 17 or more...and they were up 13-10 at the time so I figured I was cooked. Somehow they won 27-10 and covered by one point.
link to original post

Somehow? Simple answer!

J
E
T
S

JETS-JETS-JETS!

Greetings!

I kind of let the time get away from me today (and got home later than expected), so I'm going to send those PM's out to everyone in the morning.