2021 WoV Picks Game Discussion Thread

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July 17th, 2021 at 8:48:06 AM permalink

REMINDERS TO PLAY:

The following are the ways that a person may enter this game:

1.) Please read the rules and state that you wish to play in a post in THIS thread. If you do that, then you will automatically be entered into the game and will receive a PM from me when Week 1 Lines are posted.

2.) If you played this game in 2019, then you will receive a PM from me on some date after August 1st asking if you would like to play again.

3.) You may PM me that you wish to play.

4.) If you are a Member here with a join date of September 1st 2019, or after, with more than ten posts...then I will be sending a PM, on August 1st or later, briefly explaining the game and linking to the Official Thread. This is not a guarantee. I try to do this as quickly as reasonably possible, so it's possible I miss one or two as PM's can only be sent one at a time.

***If someone could perhaps remember to remind me to do the PM Invites on or around August 1st, I would be endlessly appreciative.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

JohnnyQ

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July 17th, 2021 at 8:53:50 AM permalink

I have "read the rules read the rules and state that ( I ) wish to play".

Thanks for setting this up again M146 !

There's emptiness behind their eyes There's dust in all their hearts They just want to steal us all and take us all apart

Mission146

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July 17th, 2021 at 9:28:48 AM permalink

Quote: JohnnyQ
I have "read the rules read the rules and state that ( I ) wish to play".

Thanks for setting this up again M146 !

You're welcome! I have fun running this thing.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

Mission146

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July 17th, 2021 at 10:03:26 AM permalink

Greetings!

For the benefit of people who have played previous seasons of this game, I want to emphasize one rule change:

Quote:
2.) The procedure for this will be that at some point on Thursdays, I will post the point spreads and Over/Unders from one source per week. I will likely use VegasInsider and the Spreads & Over/Unders I post will be constant and may be picked at any time prior to 10:00 EST on Sunday. If there is a Sunday game earlier than that, or a Saturday game, then you must submit Picks before kickoff of that game if you wish to pick the early game. Early Sunday Kickoffs will be announced in both threads.

2a.) There will be NO EXCEPTIONS WHATSOEVER to the deadline for any reason. Too much controversy.

2b.) This has never happened, but if you make, "Early Game," picks and then send a new set of Picks after the, "Early Game," has kicked off, you will receive a record of 0-5 for that week.

3.) Saturday/Sunday/Monday games will be the only games considered. Every player must pick exactly five winners against the Spread, exactly five Over/Unders, or a combination totaling exactly five.

The difference is that Saturday games MAY now be picked. Games on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Thursdays or Fridays (if any) MAY NOT be picked.

In the past, people have occasionally changed their Picks by sending a new set of Picks prior to the deadline. That's obviously not ideal for me, though it is permitted. However, Rule 2b.) states that if you make a pick on an Early Game and then send me a new set of Picks AFTER any early game that you have picked has kicked off, you will automatically receive an 0-5 record for the week.

THAT IS AN ABSOLUTE RULE. If you have picked an early game and that game has kicked off, then that is your set of Picks for the week and you should not send me a new set of Picks. It DOES NOT MATTER if you have kept the early game as one of your Picks. If ANY games that you have picked kick off, then that is your set of Picks for the week.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

gordonm888
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gordonm888

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July 17th, 2021 at 10:46:18 AM permalink

I will play the 2021 NFL Picks Game.

I am preparing my voodoo dolls of the Wizard, Miplet and other pre-season favorites.

Have you addressed entry fee payment methods (Paypal, Venmo, CashApp, Amazon Gift cards) in the rules? Or is that to be worked out by whomever finishes first?

Thanks, Mission. The absence of this game was sorely felt last year - a large hole in what was altogether a far too holey 2021.

So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.

Mission146

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July 17th, 2021 at 11:16:11 AM permalink

Quote: gordonm888
I will play the 2021 NFL Picks Game.

I am preparing my voodoo dolls of the Wizard, Miplet and other pre-season favorites.

Have you addressed entry fee payment methods (Paypal, Venmo, CashApp, Amazon Gift cards) in the rules? Or is that to be worked out by whomever finishes first?

Thanks, Mission. The absence of this game was sorely felt last year - a large hole in what was altogether a far too holey 2021.

Excellent, glad to have you aboard and you're welcome!

I demand a voodoo doll be made of me. On picks that were not default (my entire 2019 was default picks) I not only have not had a sub .500 season (at least, I don't think), but am also beating the vig when looking at my all-time record, I believe. As I recall, there was one season in which I skipped (legal skip week) Week 17 in order to ensure a .500+ season.

It just so happens that I am the guy who performs consistently slightly above average, but unfortunately, no better than that it would seem.

Yes, entry fee payment will be addressed at the conclusion of the game. It really depends on who the winner is and what he/she wants, but I will be willing to accept Entry Fees only at that point if he/she has limited available methods and asks me to do so. I would then ask all payments of Entry Fees to be completed within thirty days, would consolidate all of that money and then send the winner a Postal Money Order.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

miplet

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July 17th, 2021 at 1:21:12 PM permalink

Quote: gordonm888
I will play the 2021 NFL Picks Game.

I am preparing my voodoo dolls of the Wizard, Miplet and other pre-season favorites.
....

I'm 5'9", weigh about 130, have glasses, and short brown hair. Oh, found some posts from a g2e with me in it. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/info/announcements/22861-wov-2015-g2e-meetup/6/ .

I'm in.

�Man Babes� #AxelFabulous

JohnnyQ

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July 17th, 2021 at 3:00:11 PM permalink

Schedule Preview !

Sunday, Sept. 12:

Jaguars @ Texans � CBS, 1 p.m. ET
Steelers @ Bills � CBS, 1 p.m. ET

Jets @ Panthers � CBS, 1 p.m. ET
Cardinals @ Titans � CBS, 1 p.m. ET

Chargers @ Washington � CBS, 1 p.m. ET
Vikings @ Bengals � FOX, 1 p.m. ET

Seahawks @ Colts � FOX, 1 p.m. ET
Eagles @ Falcons � FOX, 1 p.m. ET

49ers @ Lions � FOX, 1 p.m. ET
Browns @ Chiefs � CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET

Dolphins @ Patriots � CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET
Broncos @ Giants � FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET

Packers @ Saints � FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET
Bears @ Rams � NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET

Monday, Sept. 13:

Ravens @ Raiders � ESPN, 8:15 p.m. ET

There's emptiness behind their eyes There's dust in all their hearts They just want to steal us all and take us all apart

gordonm888
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gordonm888

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July 17th, 2021 at 6:00:12 PM permalink

Quote: Mission146
. . am also beating the vig when looking at my all-time record ....

LOL, that's cool, whatever gets you aroused.

So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.

Johnzimbo

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July 17th, 2021 at 7:16:02 PM permalink

I'm in again....likely finish just out of the money again :)

Mission146

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July 17th, 2021 at 7:19:20 PM permalink

Quote: gordonm888
LOL, that's cool, whatever gets you aroused.

No, not that vig. The sports betting vig�the bigger one.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

JohnnyQ

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July 17th, 2021 at 8:18:14 PM permalink

OK, just for fun, any predictions on which WEEK 1 game will have the largest SPREAD ?

Gotta think the games with the 2-14 JETS and 1-15 JAGS would be in the running, although they both face teams well under 0.500 last year.

There's emptiness behind their eyes There's dust in all their hearts They just want to steal us all and take us all apart

Mission146

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July 18th, 2021 at 3:55:05 AM permalink

Quote: JohnnyQ
OK, just for fun, any predictions on which WEEK 1 game will have the largest SPREAD ?

Gotta think the games with the 2-14 JETS and 1-15 JAGS would be in the running, although they both face teams well under 0.500 last year.

I�d think the Ravens would be pretty big favorites over the Raiders.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

unJon

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July 18th, 2021 at 4:06:30 AM permalink

Quote: JohnnyQ
OK, just for fun, any predictions on which WEEK 1 game will have the largest SPREAD ?

Gotta think the games with the 2-14 JETS and 1-15 JAGS would be in the running, although they both face teams well under 0.500 last year.

As of now the Lions are +7.5 and Bears are +7. In the running are the Steelers and Cowboys at +6.5 and the Browns at +6.

The Jets are only +4 and the Jags are FAVORED by 3 over the Texans.

The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

Mission146

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July 18th, 2021 at 4:11:59 AM permalink

The Saints are favorites? I guess my Week 1 is likely to include �Packers +� somewhere in it.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

Mission146

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July 18th, 2021 at 5:27:15 AM permalink

That young up-and-comer, Tom Brady, played last season on a fully-torn MCL, according to media outlets.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

JohnnyQ

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July 18th, 2021 at 6:15:33 AM permalink

Quote: unJon
As of now the Lions are +7.5 and Bears are +7. In the running are the Steelers and Cowboys at +6.5 and the Browns at +6.

D'oh ! Not much of a sports bettor, so it didn't even occur to me that the lines were already up.

There's emptiness behind their eyes There's dust in all their hearts They just want to steal us all and take us all apart

DRich

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July 18th, 2021 at 6:51:00 AM permalink

Quote: Mission146
I�d think the Ravens would be pretty big favorites over the Raiders.

I would expect that to be less than a touchdown.

At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.

Mission146

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July 18th, 2021 at 7:01:12 AM permalink

Quote: DRich
I would expect that to be less than a touchdown.

More than a Field Goal.

I guess we are trying to qualify where we should be making quantitative predictions: Ravens -5.5

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

Mission146

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July 19th, 2021 at 6:30:51 AM permalink

Greetings!

Please enjoy my gratuitous bump of the NFL Picks Game Discussion Thread; there will be a joke at the end to satisfy Forum Rules.

I'm no mathematician, but I believe that I am contributing a minimum of $650 in added prizes to this game for the potential of up to $830 (there are eighteen weeks this season) in prizes. The minimum of $650 is based on the remote possibility that the Perfection Bonus is not won all season.

The Entry Fee is $25, so if you're interested and enjoy the NFL...or just like bets that are presumably +EV...please click below:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/36194-official-2021-wov-picks-game-thread/#post814222

To be clear, at 650/25 = 26 players, my guaranteed contributions to this game equal almost 100% of all Entry Fees. It's actually 27 players because, due to my contributions, I do not pay an Entry Fee beyond that.

This is on top of the winner wins all Entry Fees. So, it's a 200% game assuming equal skill. There's not equal skill. Some players are demonstrably better than others, but it's tough to quantify an exact probability of winning for any one person.

I want to say most years have seen ~30 total players to give you an idea, but I didn't take the time to sum them up and divide, so let's say 30 +/-10.

If we reach...let's say...fifty players I might consider kicking in a bit more this year, but it's not a guarantee and I'm not going to go into specifics. In fact, I might do it by way of issuing fun little random week-to-week propositions for potential winnings.

However, any plans for that in the unlikely event we hit fifty players remain a secret, even to me. I tried to get myself to tell me, but he just won't do it; he's such a pain, sometimes.

Um...I have added enough information that no joke is needed, this time. This has gone from a gratuitous bump to a legitimate thread add.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

unJon

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July 19th, 2021 at 6:50:43 AM permalink

Quote: Mission146
More than a Field Goal.

I guess we are trying to qualify where we should be making quantitative predictions: Ravens -5.5

I see -4.5

The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

Mission146

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July 19th, 2021 at 6:53:59 AM permalink

VegasInsider? Some money must have come in on the Ravens since yesterday; it was -4 yesterday. -5.5 is where I would put the line.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

Mission146

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July 19th, 2021 at 7:03:33 AM permalink

Of course, I would hope as many people as possible who talk about betting the NFL here, there and around the internet come and participate.

The skilled NFL Pickers.

How could they turn down the +EV? Makes no sense. They're not giving anything away. I do not open the PM's until after 10:00a.m. on Sunday and only usually post the Picks on time. Many of the lines are slightly stale by then anyway.

So, why would someone skilled at picking NFL Games who talks about doing so NOT participate?

Could it be, as Porky Pig would say, that they might be a, "Puh-Puh-Puh...Puh-Puh-Puh-Puh-Puh..."

I'd better not. See you guys in a bit!

(This is not directed at anyone on this site whatsoever. I just thought about it and realized it could be construed that way. It�s directed to pick salespeople.)

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

unJon

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July 19th, 2021 at 7:43:04 AM permalink

Quote: Mission146
VegasInsider? Some money must have come in on the Ravens since yesterday; it was -4 yesterday. -5.5 is where I would put the line.

No. Usually check vegasinsider but happened to just be on the site I use to gamble and that was the line there.

The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

Keeneone

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August 4th, 2021 at 9:37:52 AM permalink

Quote: Mission146
-snip-
***If someone could perhaps remember to remind me to do the PM Invites on or around August 1st, I would be endlessly appreciative.

I know you have been busy with the mod thread stuff, but do not forget to send invites out.
Put me down as a maybe, I still need to read all the rules.

Mission146

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August 4th, 2021 at 9:38:34 AM permalink

Quote: Keeneone
Quote: Mission146
-snip-
***If someone could perhaps remember to remind me to do the PM Invites on or around August 1st, I would be endlessly appreciative.

I know you have been busy with the mod thread stuff, but do not forget to send invites out.
Put me down as a maybe, I still need to read all the rules.

Awesome, thanks for the reminder! I'll have to get started on this a bit later.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

IndyJeffrey

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August 6th, 2021 at 1:28:50 PM permalink

Quote: Mission146
1.) Please read the rules and state that you wish to play in a post in THIS thread. If you do that, then you will automatically be entered into the game and will receive a PM from me when Week 1 Lines are posted.

I'm in. Thank you 100x for coordinating week in and week out.

WooHoo!

Now that I can wager from my not-so-comfortable couch, unlike 2019, perhaps I'll put more money to back up my picks. Thus, guaranteeing a lock for the last place prize (if that still exists)!

gordonm888
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gordonm888

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August 6th, 2021 at 1:42:00 PM permalink

Quote: Mission146
Greetings!

Please enjoy my gratuitous bump of the NFL Picks Game Discussion Thread; there will be a joke at the end to satisfy Forum Rules.
{snip}

You had me at "Greetings!"

So far, how many people have expressed their intention to play?

So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.

Mission146

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August 6th, 2021 at 1:43:38 PM permalink

Quote: gordonm888
You had me at "Greetings!"

So far, how many people have expressed their intention to play?

Ten to fifteen, but I haven't really started the PM process yet. I'd expect there to be 25-40 by the time we kick this game off.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

unJon

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August 6th, 2021 at 1:59:40 PM permalink

In. This time will win it easy. If I can remember the side prize I funded last time, I�ll do that again also.

The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

IndyJeffrey

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August 6th, 2021 at 2:02:21 PM permalink

Quote: Mission146
The second consolation prize will be the, "Most Average," consolation prize which goes to the player that finishes the season closest to .500. Tiebreakers will also be adjudicated using the normal tie breaking Rule or the players may opt to split it.

I would never suggest changing the criteria for winning a consolation prize, but if I did...

I'd argue the most average would finish the season closest to .524.

SOOPOO

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August 6th, 2021 at 4:37:22 PM permalink

Count me in.

GenWyzgy

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August 16th, 2021 at 7:30:34 PM permalink

And I thought I'd just forgotten to sign up last year and missed out on all the fun!

Anyway, I have read the rules and would like to participate again this season.

scolist

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August 17th, 2021 at 5:12:23 AM permalink

Count me in as well.

There's no way out of here When you come in You're in for good There was no promise made The part you played The chance...........you took

unJon

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August 17th, 2021 at 7:41:12 AM permalink

Me too. Did I already post that?

The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

FastEddie

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August 29th, 2021 at 7:56:46 PM permalink

Do I need to message Mission to join.

Mission146

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August 29th, 2021 at 8:04:38 PM permalink

Nope, you�re on the list to get a Picks reminder Week 1!

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

Mission146

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September 6th, 2021 at 9:14:14 AM permalink

Greetings!

Everyone who either played in 2019 or expressed interest in this thread has received a PM with the Invitation to the game. There is no need to respond to the PM as, if you received THAT version of the PM, you will automatically be sent a Picks Reminder Thursday and another if you have not made your picks by Saturday.

I am now going to PM everyone who has joined within the last year and has ten or more posts. These people will need to either PM me, or alternatively, mention in this thread that they would like to play.

Unfortunately, that PM Spambot kind of delayed me doing this because I didn't want the recipients to think that it was just more PM Spam, so I had to wait for a bit before sending out these PM's.

IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE A PM, then you can still play the game if you want to. Please check out the Official Rules:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/36194-official-2021-wov-picks-game-thread/#post814222

And, if you want to play...just say so in this thread or via PM and you will get the Week 1 Picks Reminders.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

JW17

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September 6th, 2021 at 10:06:43 AM permalink

alright!!!

Im in again this year!!!!!

cant wait!!

JW17

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September 6th, 2021 at 10:08:07 AM permalink

how many years has this been around? just curious! Thanks!!

Mission146

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September 6th, 2021 at 10:35:22 AM permalink

I think since 2011 or 2012, with 2020 skipped due to Covid uncertainties.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

Mission146

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September 6th, 2021 at 11:05:57 AM permalink

Greetings!

Played in 2019 or indicated interest in this thread: 35 PM's Sent

Join Date Last Two Years + 10 Posts, Played in Past, Thought They Might Want To: 116 PM's Sent

Usually the, "Cold Invites," only get 0-3 new players.

If anyone you know might want to play, just have them sign up here and post in this thread to start receiving Picks reminders as of Week 1.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

RideTheEdge

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September 6th, 2021 at 12:27:42 PM permalink

Thank you for all the effort sending cold invites. Consider this one productive, I'm in.

Steve

Mission146

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September 6th, 2021 at 1:30:39 PM permalink

Quote: RideTheEdge
Thank you for all the effort sending cold invites. Consider this one productive, I'm in.

Steve
link to original post

Steve,

Awesome! Glad to have you aboard!

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

FastEddie

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September 7th, 2021 at 11:06:41 AM permalink

When is the line normally posted ? And this thread or another ?

Mission146

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September 7th, 2021 at 11:24:53 AM permalink

Quote: FastEddie
When is the line normally posted ? And this thread or another ?
link to original post

Thursdays, "At some point." It will be in this thread, the Official Thread and will be PM'ed to you for Week 1 (but not after). Reminder PM's after Week 1, if any, will contain a link to the lines.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

miplet

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September 7th, 2021 at 12:08:23 PM permalink

Below is a copy and paste and slightly edited of a previous post about the picks programs on my website:

You can get the current lines in the same format that Mission148 uses by going to here. Copy all the text (ctr-a, ctr-c in windows). Then go to here, and paste (ctr-p) all the text in the box and click submit. If you did this now, you would get:

Packers (-7) @ Bears (+7) O/U 49
Chiefs (+1) @ Texans (-1) O/U 41
Browns (+3.5) @ Jets (-3.5) O/U 39.5
Colts (-2.5) @ Bills (+2.5) O/U 45
Dolphins (-3.5) @ Redskins (+3.5) O/U 43.5
Panthers (-3) @ Jaguars (+3) O/U 41
Seahawks (-4) @ Rams (+4) O/U 40.5
Saints (+2.5) @ Cardinals (-2.5) O/U 48.5
Lions (+3) @ Chargers (-3) O/U 46
Titans (+3) @ Buccaneers (-3) O/U 41
Bengals (-3) @ Raiders (+3) O/U 43
Ravens (+4.5) @ Broncos (-4.5) O/U 48
Giants (+6) @ Cowboys (-6) O/U 51.5
Eagles (-3) @ Falcons (+3) O/U 55
Vikings (-2.5) @ 49ers (+2.5) O/U 41.5

You will have to manually remove games we don't use eg Thursday or next weeks game.
To compare the current lines to the WoV lines, just click on the compare lines button. Make sure the WoV lines is updated as it might be the previous week. If you did this now you would get:

Jets -3 (-3.5)
Jaguars UNDER 41.5 (41)
Cardinals OVER 48 (48.5)
Broncos UNDER 48.5 (48)

The number in parenthesis is the current line.
You can get random picks here. Just check it is for the current week.
Let me know of any errors ,questions, comments, or suggestions.

�Man Babes� #AxelFabulous

IndyJeffrey

IndyJeffrey

Threads: 13
Posts: 446

Joined: Feb 10, 2013

September 8th, 2021 at 3:53:11 PM permalink

Will the weekly games be posted in this thread or the 'OFFICIAL' thread?

Are the picks above (miplet) the ones for this contest?

Apologies if I am asking question which were already addressed.

Mission146