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Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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April 2nd, 2021 at 9:26:56 PM permalink
Kentucky Derby Saturday, May 1, 2021
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/
Only 28 days to the first Saturday in May...
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Three big Derby point earning preps tomorrow: Wood Memorial, Blue Grass Stakes, and the Santa Anita Derby.
I am hoping for big runs from 2 longshot horses in my Derby barn (futures bets). Hopefully they earn points and make it into the big race.

Dynamic One in the Wood Memorial
Parnelli in the SA Derby

Past performances for the Saturday preps can be found here:
https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Free_PPs_now_available_for_Blue_Grass_Wood_and_Santa_Anita_Derby_123
Keeneone
Keeneone
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April 3rd, 2021 at 4:44:38 PM permalink
Wood Memorial:

Won by longshot Bourbonic (70/1). My runner, Dynamic One, ran a nice race to finish second. He might have enough points for the Derby, if things play out perfectly. I do not think any from this event will be serious Derby contenders. This was a slow race and a questionable quality field.

Blue Grass Stakes (In Spanish, for a different sound to race calling):

Essential Quality just edged out Highly Motivated for the win. EQ will likely be one of the favorites for the Derby.

Santa Anita Derby:

Rock Your World won it. Really nice performance for his first time on a dirt surface. Wicked fast early pace and a bit slow at the end. Medina Spirit was second and has the points to run in the Derby. My steed, Parnelli showed early gas but folded it up late. He is not in the same class of the best 3 year olds.
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2 final preps next weekend and the Derby field will almost be set. Lexington Stakes @ Keeneland/Arkansas Derby @ Oaklawn.
Keeneone
Keeneone
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April 10th, 2021 at 5:54:36 PM permalink
Longshots won the final 2 preps today. 3 weeks until the Run For The Roses.
Lexington Stakes @ Keeneland
Won by King Fury (18/1). He had a bit of back class to him and was definitely the best today in the slop.

Arkansas Derby @ Oaklawn.
Won by Super Stock (12/1) after a pace meltdown of the top 2 choice in the wagering.
Keeneone
Keeneone
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April 10th, 2021 at 6:24:04 PM permalink
IMO, Essential Quality is the favorite to win the Derby right now. After him, I have no strong opinions about the others right now. I currently have 3 horses (futures wagers) with enough points to run. There is still some time to see who is actually gonna enter and run.
Keeneone
Keeneone
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April 13th, 2021 at 8:09:54 AM permalink
KD points leaderboard updated today. Looks like Weyburn and Proxy have passed on the race. Total list is at 28 and only 20 can run.
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/leaderboard
Keeneone
Keeneone
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April 15th, 2021 at 5:19:32 PM permalink
Two more runners are likely skipping the KD. Panadol has been removed from the leaderboard list and Rombauer is rumored to be pointed towards the Preakness. I have also read Caddo River may skip, rest, and wait for the race @ Pimlico.
I have a future bet on King Fury so more departures increase his chances of running on May 1st and keeping my wager live. His connections want to run him, but if he does not make the gate he will also point towards the Preakness.
The Preakness is shaping up to be very heavy with fresh/capable runners for the second leg of the Triple Crown.
Johnzimbo
Johnzimbo
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April 15th, 2021 at 6:08:59 PM permalink
What odds do you have on King and what might he go off at if he gets into the race, any conjecture?
Keeneone
Keeneone
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April 15th, 2021 at 6:33:40 PM permalink
Quote: Johnzimbo

What odds do you have on King and what might he go off at if he gets into the race, any conjecture?


I have him @ 100/1 (Nov2020). I liked him after he won the Street Sense Stakes @ CD last year. He is still not officially in the Derby, but if he does get in he will likely be a longshot. A "Longshot" in the Derby is rarely over 100/1 these days (even with a 20 horse field). Longest odds horse in 2020 was 50/1 (fifteen horse field), 70/1 in 2019 (nineteen horse field) and 85/1 in 2018 (twenty horse field).
https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Stakes&stkid=897
Keeneone
Keeneone
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April 17th, 2021 at 8:57:27 AM permalink
Baffert's Concert Tour is opting to wait until the Preakness. The Derby is obviously THE Derby, but the Preakness is looking very salty and competitive for 2021.
https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Concert_Tour_to_skip_Kentucky_Derby_aim_for_Preakness_123
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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April 17th, 2021 at 10:24:31 AM permalink
King Fury just needs one more defection. I think he will get in.

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