Super Bowl 55

Found a no 2-point conversion at -200 last night. It was over the counter, so they would have taken any amount I wanted, but over the limit on the app, so I'll count it as one of my max bets. Other "max" bets I've made:

4q under 16.5
Le'Veon Bell first rush under 3.5 -105 (and again at -110)
Players with pass attempt under 2.5 -140
Hill to score before Godwin -150
Gronkowski over 2.5 +120
Brate under 3.5 -130
Hitchens over 5.5 -120
Hill over 6.5 -120
Bucs + 6.5 -155

Biggest bet was on something that was just a bad line. Not anything obscure, fair number was no less than -150 and it was first up at -110, and I happened to be in a sportsbook, where I could bet it a few times. Bet the other side at +120, with about a 5 to 10% chance of landing in the middle. Not a good bet (no-vig market price around +105, but could not bring myself to get crushed on such a great bet).

Then a lot of other stuff that was still good, but I didn't think was as strong. It is strange thinking about the theory that sports betting can make a game "interesting" for the customers. The amount of money on bets I have is about the same as the combined cost of the last two cars I bought (and I wish I had more; maybe next year I can get it to the combined cost of the three cars I've ever bought). And I'll probably only have a vague idea of how it is going during the game. A slow start would be great. Either 0-0 first quarter, or 7-0 on a Mahomes to Hill TD would be great.

The scoregasm bet is interesting. The No is just so clearly obvious. So lets assume the bet is either No, or nothing. The lrr method is much better than The Wizard method, even though it might be less accurate. Look back at how often one of these scoregerms has happened in the past four to five years, and use that rate to make a line. Even if we are off, it's still ok, because each time it happens, it decreases the chance of it happening again. If there is a flaw in the method, it just means we are making an even better bet than we would think. If we use the other method of seeing how often each team scores a certain number and use that against the current possible ways, and we are off on our calculations, we might end up with a bad estimate of what number to bet. I would hypothesize that there could be a correlation between the scores of the two teams in a game. A safety or 6- or 8-point touchdown by one team, means going for two becomes even more likely. That means when one team lands on a rare, like 18, 25, or 32, the other team is more likely to as well. What could have been a 31-24 game, becomes 32-25.

Did I just see the superbowl is cancelled due to covid? SOOPOO did I just see that? lol

In a very odd development, I have zero bets on the super bowl. That certainly hasn't occurred since long before I moved to Las Vegas. I don't know what happened, I just didn't like any side or over/under bets and didn't feel like playing a bunch of prop bets. I will still watch the game as I have a preference, but no "action" for me this year.

Not betting any props like I generally do either. Didn’t have any apps loaded up since I don’t bet sports year round and I just didn’t find the thought of standing in slow moving lines with people probably standing closer than they should be very appealing, only doing lines for necessities for the moment.

I hear circa has prop limits at 10k over the app for what it’s worth. They’re a different breed from the nitty shops that’s for sure.

Quote: kewlj

Did I just see the superbowl is cancelled due to covid? SOOPOO did I just see that? lol

In a very odd development, I have zero bets on the super bowl. That certainly hasn't occurred since long before I moved to Las Vegas. I don't know what happened, I just didn't like any side or over/under bets and didn't feel like playing a bunch of prop bets. I will still watch the game as I have a preference, but no "action" for me this year.

Just put $20 on anything, then order piazza and wings. Have a beer, relax and enjoy the game. If time is tight, I will take KC -4 even for US$20.

I am , now, at a restaurant somewhere in Vancouver. Ordering food and beer. Relax and enjoy the game. Hopefully, KC -4 will win , then I will have a free meal and a lazy Sunday afternoon.

Yay! Sportsball!

The thing with two groups of people from different places who are going to do stuff with a ball for a while and then someone will be called the winner.

May the best troupe win!

The call is Heads (the Wizard is disappointed), and the coin flip winner is Heads!

Quote: Wizard

I make a post like this every year handicapping the game. My method is quite simple. My estimate of the points scored by a give team is:

(average points scored per game + average points opponent allows)/2.

I do this for the entire season, including the post-season games.

For Kansas City's 19 games they scored 533 points and allowed 403.

For Tampa Bay's 20 games, they scored 584 and allowed 424.

Taking an average per game for KC:

Scored = 28.05
Allowed = 21.21

Taking an average per game for TB:

Scored = 29.20
Allowed = 21.20

Using my formula, I estimate:
KC to score (28.05 + 21.20)/2 = 24.63
TB to score (29.20 + 21.21) = 25.21

So, TB score score 0.58 more points.

The over/under I make 24.63 + 25.21 = 49.83.

The early lines are:
TB + 3.5
Ov/un 55.5

Thus, my crude handicapping recommend Tampa Bay and the Under. Not surprisingly, these are the underdog and the under, which are the sharp side of most games.

The question for the poll is what is your prediction?

You should use the average points for TB in home games, not overall, for this!

I went undefeated on my bet and didn't even have to stress the game. I bet HEADS at no juice of course.

Brady wins again, can life get any better

Scoreless quarter bitches! 😁

My other bets lost.

Total damages? I owe Mike $3.75. 🤪

KC was a total disappointment.

Quote: speedycrap

KC was a total disappointment.

Yeah they fell apart and the 2Q and never pulled it together.

Would ask that you arrange settlement of my bet with Mike to be put towards the next spring fling.

Quote: unJon

Yeah they fell apart and the 2Q and never pulled it together.

Would ask that you arrange settlement of my bet with Mike to be put towards the next spring fling.

Got it. Will settle with Paypal on 16th Feb. OK?

Quote: speedycrap

Got it. Will settle with Paypal on 16th Feb. OK?

Have PM’d the Wizard to make sure he’s aware. Whatever you two settle on is ok with me.

Quote: unJon

Have PM’d the Wizard to make sure he’s aware. Whatever you two settle on is ok with me.

Great, I will settle with Wizard, then PM you and Wizard for record. Thanks.

I organized a Super Bowl Squares game for the Mrs' family and friends, but my friend won $60 for having TB 1, KC 9 for the 3rd and 4th quarters, and final score. I asked him to play because I had 10 remaining squares!

By my count, 3 previous Super Bowls had scoreless 4th quarters: 1970, 1985, 1997.

My dad introduced me to the game at a very young age because he worked at a printing plant, and was among the earliest people with access to photocopiers.

Congrats on the poll results to the board. TB and under wins!

Quote: Wizard

Thus, my crude handicapping recommend Tampa Bay and the Under.

Just sayin'.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

Total damages? I owe Mike $3.75. 🤪

I think I'll splurge on a small coffee at Starbucks.

It really was a pretty crappy Superbowl. For the first time in a longtime, I didn't have any money on the game so I was just hoping for a good game. well, THAT didn't happen....unless you were rooting for Tampa Bay I guess.

I didn't realize how injured Mahomes was coming into this game. I knew the KC offensive line was a mess. But when you added Mahomes inability to run and scramble like he normally does on top of the line not being able to block anyone, Mahomes and KC really had no chance.

Andy Reid and the KC coach staff gets plenty of blame as well. Knowing their situation with Offensive line and QB, they didn't come in with a game plan to help themselves. When your line can't block, you gotta go to screens and draws to keep lineman off balance. Just can't let them come after the QB every play, like that. Of course that gets harder as you get further behind. Not only did they have no real game plan adjustment coming into the game, but they made no adjustments during the game.

All that said.....Tom Brady. Never been a big fan. But how does a 6th round draft choice, drafted #199 overall, play 22 seasons, play in 10 Superbowls, win 7, and still be playing like that at 43. Most élite QB's can't make it past late 30's. And from the looks of the last two games, Brady may have another 2-3 years. ???? And this from a guy that is about the most immobile QB I have ever seen. he isn't rolling out or anything. You know exactly where he will be.....5-6 yards behind the center.

And finally....super bowl commercials. A couple made me chuckle in the moment, but now a day later, I can't think of any that really stuck with me. I don't know, last couple years, seems like they are trying too hard to be funny.

Quote: smoothgrh

The call is Heads (the Wizard is disappointed), and the coin flip winner is Heads!

Oy!

CBS didn't show the guy that ran on to the field in the 4th quarter, which was pretty funny....especially this broadcaster's, description, screaming, "Pull up your pants. take off the bra and be a man".

https://twitter.com/i/status/1358611559229124610

Quote: unJon

Yeah they fell apart and the 2Q and never pulled it together.

Would ask that you arrange settlement of my bet with Mike to be put towards the next spring fling.

Just sent US$30 to Wizard through Paypal for settlement. See you next year.

Since there's a new post in this thread anyway, it seems like a good place to drop my article about Brady:

https://wizardofvegas.com/article/brady-is-the-system/

Enjoy! Feel free to either comment here or the articles section!

Quote: speedycrap

Just sent US$30 to Wizard through Paypal for settlement. See you next year.

Thank you!