When Politics Isn't Politics; It's Gambling
Quote: rdw4potus49% is a plurality. ie Biden 49, Trump 47, none of these 4.
No Blue guy wins Nevada without winning Clark, without a major third party vote. In this two man race, team blue needs to rack up votes in Clark and hope the rest of the state doesn't show up in force.
Doesn't have to be a major thorn, a small one will always do just as well.Quote: mcallister3200I think Nevada has one of the largest libertarian party contingents in the US, but still wouldn’t constitute a major third party vote.
I wantd to declare myself a Libertine, but Libertarian was as close as i could get. once there, its not the numbers,just the drain on funds.
The more important issue is when books grade this wager, not when news networks do.
For example, Wizard, what were your bets rules on grading/resolving? What if SCOTUS comes in and confirms the fraudulent votes?
Quote: LandoSo what do you all say about the "polling industry" forgetting the other fraud? By the way, I would not have wanted my man from earlier in the thread to go away for any amount of time had we "wagered".
The more important issue is when books grade this wager, not when news networks do.
For example, Wizard, what were your bets rules on grading/resolving? What if SCOTUS comes in and confirms the fraudulent votes?
Trump is at 10 cents on predictit. There’s still a lot of money out there for you to make if you are right.
Quote: LandoSo what do you all say about the "polling industry" forgetting the other fraud? By the way, I would not have wanted my man from earlier in the thread to go away for any amount of time had we "wagered".
The more important issue is when books grade this wager, not when news networks do.
For example, Wizard, what were your bets rules on grading/resolving? What if SCOTUS comes in and confirms the fraudulent votes?
Not the Wizard.... but of course the bet is not resolved yet. I believe the bets are on who will win the election. Not a single state has certified its votes yet. (I think?). I believe the bets resolve on December 12, when the electors vote for President. It’s not close, but if it was 270-268 I’d want to wait until the votes were cast.
(God forbid), if SCOTUS disqualified enough votes to change the result, then that is the final result. You would win your bet as the Democrats burned the country down, while looting along the way.
Edit..... I’ll take my suspension gracefully!
See you in 3 days.Quote: SOOPOONot the Wizard.... but of course the bet is not resolved yet. I believe the bets are on who will win the election. Not a single state has certified its votes yet. (I think?). I believe the bets resolve on December 12, when the electors vote for President. It’s not close, but if it was 270-268 I’d want to wait until the votes were cast.
(God forbid), if SCOTUS disqualified enough votes to change the result, then that is the final result. You would win your bet as the Democrats burned the country down, while looting along the way.
Edit..... I’ll take my suspension gracefully!
Note. I also deem Lando's post as worthy of suspension, but he recently had an unintended sleepover on his last suspension, so I'll treat this as 'time served'
Quote: LandoSo what do you all say about the "polling industry" forgetting the other fraud?
Polling is here to stay
It's a free country
As long as the country stays free, polling will exist
You can believe the polls or not believe the polls
Its always been like that and always will
It is what it is.
Trying to predict an election before an election has been going on since the dawn of elections.
My Mom told me a story about Taiwan. Officials wanted to know where they stood in an election. They had teachers poll the students. The thinking, students vote exactly like their parents.
Bottom line. Everybody is looking for tools to predict an election. It simply comes with the territory of having an election. Its human nature
Quote: LandoSo what do you all say about the "polling industry" forgetting the other fraud? By the way, I would not have wanted my man from earlier in the thread to go away for any amount of time had we "wagered".
Oct. 28th:
Quote: LandoTo Fins and you on the data and "expert" idea or data: Why wouldn't you use Trafalgar? Most of your experts were embarrassingly wrong last time and when they were right it was because they got Obama's elections correct, lol. If you can't see through that, however long ago it is, you purposefully being closed minded, and mainly because you are a partisan, I have noticed 95%.
Trafalgar was a disaster this year. This would have been the electoral map according to their polling:
Trafalgar had the opposite, yet its spokesman is saying how off other polling was
In 2016, prior to the election, I was contacted on our landline by a political survey organization and I answered all of their questions. After doing that I started getting contacted by other political survey organizations starting at about twice a week and increasing to once or twice daily (on weekdays) -and I answered all their questions. I also was contacted by candidate advocacy groups who disguised their pitch as a political survey with obnoxiously slanted questions. After participating in about 30 surveys, I started to sometimes decline to take the time to answer the surveys. Still, I participated several dozen more times until the 2016 election occurred and put me out of my misery.
My conclusion was that political polling organizations sell lists of phone numbers for which individuals are known to have responded to political surveys and that other polling organizations (as well as political candidates) buy these lists. Selling phone numbers is just a way that survey organizations make extra cash and buying "HOT phone numbers" is a way that survey orgainzations reduce the time and expense of their polling operations. Thus, I think there is a cohort of "willing respondents" that are incredibly over-represented because they comprise some fraction of the approx. 1400 to 1,700 persons surveyed on any given poll and they are common to many of the polls. Its an incredibly stupid situation.
So, "garbage in" results in "garbage out."
Quote: gordonm888My wife and I still have a land line -for no apparent reason. During weekdays I am usually in my home office and usually answer the phone promptly.
In 2016, prior to the election, I was contacted on our landline by a political survey organization and I answered all of their questions. After doing that I started getting contacted by other political survey organizations starting at about twice a week and increasing to once or twice daily (on weekdays) -and I answered all their questions. I also was contacted by candidate advocacy groups who disguised their pitch as a political survey with obnoxiously slanted questions. After participating in about 30 surveys, I started to sometimes decline to take the time to answer the surveys. Still, I participated several dozen more times until the 2016 election occurred and put me out of my misery.
My conclusion was that political polling organizations sell lists of phone numbers for which individuals are known to have responded to political surveys and that other polling organizations (as well as political candidates) buy these lists. Selling phone numbers is just a way that survey organizations make extra cash and buying "HOT phone numbers" is a way that survey orgainzations reduce the time and expense of their polling operations. Thus, I think there is a cohort of "willing respondents" that are incredibly over-represented because they comprise some fraction of the approx. 1400 to 1,700 persons surveyed on any given poll and they are common to many of the polls. Its an incredibly stupid situation.
So, "garbage in" results in "garbage out."
Polls equal freedom
Since the dawn of time, people have used whatever to try to predict an outcome
Be it an election, the roll of dice or the next card
By the way, 1950 is calling you, they want your views on Taiwan back lol
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/35286-new-shutdowns-of-casinos/4/#post784365
True story. Long Long Long time ago bought some tea cups in Hong Kong. Flew to Taiwan. Was denied entry due to those made in China tea cups. Threw the tea cups away, allowed into the country. That was a long long long time ago. Times have changed, China and Taiwan are major trading partners. My Taiwan relatives have invested heavily in China. That was unheard of back in your day :-)
That has to do with former and current betting. Period.
Quote: smoothgrhSo when do bets get resolved? When all states certify their votes? When the Electoral College votes? When we confirm who's sitting in the Oval Office on the morning of Jan 21?
I guess it depends on who booked them. The odds at Betfair still suggest Trump has about a 5% chance. Personally, I'm already making arrangements to pay off old bets I made on Trump.
Quote: smoothgrhSo when do bets get resolved? When all states certify their votes? When the Electoral College votes? When we confirm who's sitting in the Oval Office on the morning of Jan 21?
My offshores already paid me. Money is in my accounts.
Quote: terapinedPolls equal freedom
Since the dawn of time, people have used whatever to try to predict an outcome
Be it an election, the roll of dice or the next card
By the way, 1950 is calling you, they want your views on Taiwan back lol
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/35286-new-shutdowns-of-casinos/4/#post784365
True story. Long Long Long time ago bought some tea cups in Hong Kong. Flew to Taiwan. Was denied entry due to those made in China tea cups. Threw the tea cups away, allowed into the country. That was a long long long time ago. Times have changed, China and Taiwan are major trading partners. My Taiwan relatives have invested heavily in China. That was unheard of back in your day :-)
In the mid 90's, I played in the Penn State Grad/Faculty summer intramural league on the Math Department team. We had a starting off guard from Taiwan and a starting power forward from China. So the interaction was interesting -- mainly because they would kind of get insulted when people assumed they were both from the same place. And when people conflated the Taiwanese guy with the Chinese guy, which happened frequently, they were not happy.
By the way, those international high school level leagues these guys grew up in must have been rough, because they never complained even when some 275-pound nose guard would clothesline them during a game. They said officiating in both Taiwan and more so in China basically allowed players to whack each other all the time.
Quote: redietzIn the mid 90's, I played in the Penn State Grad/Faculty summer intramural league on the Math Department team. We had a starting off guard from Taiwan and a starting power forward from China. So the interaction was interesting -- mainly because they would kind of get insulted when people assumed they were both from the same place. And when people conflated the Taiwanese guy with the Chinese guy, which happened frequently, they were not happy.
Big difference in thinking
I was on a plane a few years ago when I sat next to a girl from China
This was back when Liu Xiaobo won the Nobel Peace Prize
I was very excited and proud of him
When I brought up the subject she got very angry and said Liu Xiaobo was a criminal
Quote: terapinedBig difference in thinking
I was on a plane a few years ago when I sat next to a girl from China
This was back when Liu Xiaobo won the Nobel Peace Prize
I was very excited and proud of him
When I brought up the subject she got very angry and said Liu Xiaobo was a criminal
While living in NYC, I knew many Chinese immigrants, but only a few from Taiwan. I found it interesting in that most of their families had fled to the island, as opposed to being long time residents of Formosa. The one friend whose family was there for many generations did not care for the Nationalists and wished they would resolve their differences with the Communists and go home. He didn't care for NYC, either. Is there a divide between the groups, even after seventy years?
Quote: billryanWhile living in NYC, I knew many Chinese immigrants, but only a few from Taiwan. I found it interesting in that most of their families had fled to the island, as opposed to being long time residents of Formosa. The one friend whose family was there for many generations did not care for the Nationalists and wished they would resolve their differences with the Communists and go home. He didn't care for NYC, either. Is there a divide between the groups, even after seventy years?
My family in Taiwan are that part of the population that fled the mainland.
Part of the anti communist Nationalists.
But it gets complicated because the new govt in Taiwan was a right wing dictatorship
My family caught in the middle, a deep hatred for left wing communism of Mao that made them move and a deep hatred for the right wing dictatorship they lived under in Taiwan
A lot has changed
Taiwan is a Democracy and a lot due to my parents friends that came to the USA as students in the 60's at Yale , graduated and went back to Taiwan to fight for Democracy.
The Democracy in Taiwan scares China
Quote: WizardCurrent Betfair odds suggest Trump still has an 8.9% chance to win.
I don’t view it that way. I think there’s a time value of money factor here at work. Collect Biden bets at a discount today (and put the money into an interest bearing account or the newly bullish stock market) or wait until Betfair pays the Biden bets in the ordinary course possibly a month or two from now.
Quote: TinManWhatever weirdness happens, I won my bet. In speaking with an old roommate the Saturday before the election, he said he expected Biden to get 350 EC votes. I thought Biden was a favorite but not by that much. 538 at the time put Biden at 349 EC expected. We settled on an O/U line of 345 Biden. Even if Biden wins every outstanding state, I win. I texted him a few days after the election to see how he wanted to settle up. Just wish we had bet more. He was willing to go higher.
What's interesting is that I get a bunch of malarkey for being "left of Marx" as I like to say, but my prediction would have had Biden right where he is now in terms of electoral votes. I figured he'd (for sure) not win Georgia and I figured Arizona would be close, but he'd probably lose. So my tally for the entire election is right where the electoral count is right now without those two states in the Biden column.
I thought Biden winning Texas, North Carolina, Georgia, or Florida was unlikely, with Florida the most likely of an unlikely bunch. I thought Trump would take Ohio, but I thought it would be closer.
So my philosophical rooting interest did not color my evaluation much. If anything, it probably skewed me the opposite way.
That was a real botch that was actually predictable and that I should have anticipated.
Quote: redietzMy biggest regret is not catching the angle that an early Trump Florida win didn't really mean anything, but people would overreact due to Bush/Gore. So I missed live betting after Florida was Trump's. At the time, Trump was up in the -225 to -250 range, and Biden was a real bargain.
That was a real botch that was actually predictable and that I should have anticipated.
Agreed. Is that what's referred to as the red mirage, or is that more referring to the rest of the country? Either way, in terms of sharp betting, it might be better to bet in favor of Republicans Election Day and then sell off some that night. I think there are a number of states where it's pretty safe to get money down on prior to the Election, even as soon as they become available. I'm hoping that the Wizard will have another blog and I will absolutely use that as a a guiding resource if that's the case.
Quote: MintyAgreed. Is that what's referred to as the red mirage, or is that more referring to the rest of the country? Either way, in terms of sharp betting, it might be better to bet in favor of Republicans Election Day and then sell off some that night. I think there are a number of states where it's pretty safe to get money down on prior to the Election, even as soon as they become available. I'm hoping that the Wizard will have another blog and I will absolutely use that as a a guiding resource if that's the case.
Red mirage is what happened in Michigan - election-day votes posted before absentees & made it look like Trump was ahead. The opposite happened in Ohio, where absentee counts posted right when polls closed and made Biden look competitive until election day counts caught up. There were significant market inefficiencies in both states, and real-time odds ran to the current (apparent) leader in each case. That happened despite weeks of warnings about the phenomenon, including real-time warnings on ABC, CBS, and CNN as it was happening. Crazy easy money there (currency exchange and withdrawal issues notwithstanding).
Quote: redietzMy biggest regret is not catching the angle that an early Trump Florida win didn't really mean anything, but people would overreact due to Bush/Gore. So I missed live betting after Florida was Trump's. At the time, Trump was up in the -225 to -250 range, and Biden was a real bargain.
That was a real botch that was actually predictable and that I should have anticipated.
I believe the reaction was related to 2016 rather than Bush/Gore. The fact that he won Florida by more in 2020 than 2016, another Trump election where the polls weren’t accurate, and there was so little data from other states at that point, is what set off the reaction to make him the favorite as at that point people believed we were in another outlier ‘16 unexpected repeat IMO.
This was my take in the moment.Quote: mcallister3200I believe the reaction was related to 2016 rather than Bush/Gore. The fact that he won Florida by more in 2020 than 2016, another Trump election where the polls weren’t accurate, and there was so little data from other states at that point, is what set off the reaction to make him the favorite as at that point people believed we were in another outlier ‘16 unexpected repeat IMO.
Quote: GialmereI'm still seeing stories that bookies are not paying off yet. Have any of you election punters had any wager resolution?
The BetFair odds suggest Trump still has a 3.6% chance. I'm not sure what's going on with places that broker their own action, like Bovada.
Quote: ChumpChangeGonna have to wait for the eviction crew to finish the job. The White House has new impenetrable walls.
Let's be careful to respect the rule against political statements.
Quote: ChumpChangeHe's losing nearly 50 lawsuits. Was anybody but him betting on them?
All his lawsuits seem to designed to get one or more to the Supreme Court where he seems to think his appointees will back him.
If you want to get in on the action, don't forget to check the half dozen equivalent markets such as: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5961/Will-the-2020-TX-Democratic-primary-winner-win-the-presidency
The action is not just in the main presidential-election market: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election
Quote: WizardThe BetFair odds suggest Trump still has a 3.6% chance. I'm not sure what's going on with places that broker their own action, like Bovada.
The post above was made at 10:33 AM today. 4 1/2 hours later Trump's chances are up to 6.6%.
Quote: WizardThe post above was made at 10:33 AM today. 4 1/2 hours later Trump's chances are up to 6.6%.
I do not believe that you can anywhere bet $93.40 to win $6.60 on Biden being President. Are you implying you can make that bet somewhere?
The current odds are 1.06 on Betfair for Biden to win, and $311,000 has been wagered at that price. $4.7 million has been wagered at 1.04Quote: SOOPOOI do not believe that you can anywhere bet $93.40 to win $6.60 on Biden being President. Are you implying you can make that bet somewhere?
You can bet Trump does not win the Electoral college at much lower cost in:
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6653/What-will-be-the-Electoral-College-margin-in-the-2020-presidential-election
I bought in at 78 cents to win 22 cents this week, and prices are similar this morning.
The position limit is $850 and profits are taxed at 10%.
Quote: MentalYou can bet Biden to win at 87 cents to win 13 cents on PredictIt.
You can bet Trump does not win the Electoral college at much lower cost in:
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6653/What-will-be-the-Electoral-College-margin-in-the-2020-presidential-election
I bought in at 78 cents to win 22 cents this week, and prices are similar this morning.
The position limit is $850 and profits are taxed at 10%.
So you were able to bet $850 to win around $240! minus $24 around $216! Congratulations! I frankly cannot believe that there are people willing to bet on Trump winning the electoral college without silly odds (100-1 or higher).
