SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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August 13th, 2020 at 9:51:21 AM permalink
Can I assume if by some chance the KD winner sets an all time speed record it will not 'count' because the horses are 4 months older than normal? Am I correct in assuming that horses get faster from age 3 to age 4?
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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August 13th, 2020 at 10:17:24 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Can I assume if by some chance the KD winner sets an all time speed record it will not 'count' because the horses are 4 months older than normal? Am I correct in assuming that horses get faster from age 3 to age 4?



yes, usually, but not always, the strongest and fastest horses in the country are older horses
believe it or not an academic study was done on this and is referenced by N.I.H., N.L.M. and NCBI.


from the study:

" A typical horse will improve by 10 (horse) lengths in sprints (less than 1 mile) and 15 lengths in routes (one mile or greater) from age 2 to 4 1/2.

We find that a typical horse’s peak racing age is 4.45 years."


so, if a record was set there would likely be an asterisk


but there's not much chance of that happening
the record for all 3 TC races has been set by Secretariat - although there was some controversy about the Preakness record

Tiz the Law is not in Secretariat's league - not by a longshot - and that's not meant to take anything away from him - no horse in history was in his league

TC winner American Pharoah ran the Derby in 203.02 and Secretariat did it in 159.40
that's almost 3.5 seconds faster
the rough rule of thumb is 5 lengths for every second
so using that as a guide Secretariat would have beaten American Pharoah by about 17 lengths

after Secretariat died a necropsy was done on him and it was found that his heart was more than twice the size of an average horse's heart
one, but not the only reason for his phenomenal performance was that he could process the intake and distribution of oxygen much better than other horses so he would become less tired







https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4013968/
𝘱𝘢𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘵: 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘰𝘯 𝘸𝘩𝘰 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳 𝘭𝘰𝘶𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘩𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵............. ᴍᴀʀᴋ ᴛᴡᴀɪɴ
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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August 15th, 2020 at 5:57:25 PM permalink
Pegasus @ Monmouth Park
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/prep-races/pegasus
#5 Pneumatic won it as the favorite.

Next race - The Kentucky Derby! - in the Fall...
Keeneone
Keeneone
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September 2nd, 2020 at 2:59:49 PM permalink
Kentucky Derby @ Churchill Downs - Grade 1 @ 10 Furlongs
Saturday Sept 5, 2020 - Race 14 - Post Time: 7:01 pm ET
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses
Past performances (click on Tiz The Law's Ultimate pps):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/BarclayTagg/TAGG+BARCLAY/9999/summary.html

I am just going to pull for TTL and hope he gets a chance at the modified TC. GLTA
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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September 3rd, 2020 at 2:34:24 AM permalink
Wow - TTL is breaking from post 17 in the Derby
no horse has ever won breaking from post 17 in the previous 145 runnings of the Derby

there is a new starting gate to be used, which should help him, because there won't be a gap as there was under the old starting method, so he should not be as far outside to begin with

but still, that's very far outside, and he's likely to lose a lot of ground going around the turn unless Franco changes his style and bolts him to the front very quickly

I think it is very likely that Franco will be instructed to do exactly that
but if he has trouble on the break - bumping or a late break - the race could be a difficult one for him

it's also interesting that Manny Franco is a good jock, but he's not one of the best jocks out there
Equibase currently ranks him 8th for the year
Oritz is winning at 25%, and Rosario, Gaffalione and Saez are winning at about 19%
Franco is winning at 15%............................15% is good, but not great
some of that is due to the superstar jocks getting the best mounts a lot of the time, but still

Franco has been on TTL for the last 6 races - every race after TTL's maiden race - so it does make sense not to take him down for a superstar
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Sep 3, 2020
𝘱𝘢𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘵: 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘰𝘯 𝘸𝘩𝘰 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳 𝘭𝘰𝘶𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘩𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵............. ᴍᴀʀᴋ ᴛᴡᴀɪɴ
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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September 6th, 2020 at 2:16:55 AM permalink
Kentucky Derby.......................parimutuel handle...............................WinPlaceShow Pool




2020.......................................$31,110,660


2019........................................$65,376,107


2018........................................$62,336,448




2020 action less by more than half compared to prior years
𝘱𝘢𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘵: 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘰𝘯 𝘸𝘩𝘰 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳 𝘭𝘰𝘶𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘩𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵............. ᴍᴀʀᴋ ᴛᴡᴀɪɴ
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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September 7th, 2020 at 1:25:31 AM permalink
Tiz the Law paid as much to place as he would have paid if he had won........................ $3.40
and he paid almost as much to show as he would have paid if he had won..........................$3.20

his win odds were .70/1

it's a great example of these huge race day events sometimes creating inefficient markets in the secondary pools
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Sep 7, 2020
𝘱𝘢𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘵: 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘰𝘯 𝘸𝘩𝘰 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳 𝘭𝘰𝘶𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘩𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵............. ᴍᴀʀᴋ ᴛᴡᴀɪɴ

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