2019 WoV Picks game (discussion thread)

Prizes and Payouts

Greetings!

I wanted to give a little update on this, though these numbers are not official for the time being. They technically won't become official until after Week 2, but likely will be once the Week 1 Picks are in.

Currently, we have 33 on the list, so assuming all 33 end up playing, but we subtract one because it is me and I do not pay an entry fee because I can't win, we have:

32 * 25 = $800 for 1st-3rd which would be distributed as follows:

1st Place: $675
2nd Place: $100
3rd Place: $25 (Basically, free entry)

We also have the following prizes that are considered an official part of this game:

Most Average (closest to .500): $75
You Suck (Worst Record): $75

We also have the Perfection Bonus for a 6-0 record, which means you must make a Confidence Pick and ALL Picks must be winners that week.

Prize per Week: $10 (Rolling)

So, the Perfection Bonus will be paid in the full amount of $170 as long as someone wins it in Week 17. If there are no 6-0 records in Week 17 (and any weeks leading up to Week 17) the prize is not paid for those weeks. If I win the prize, I guess you could say I technically pay it to myself. Please remember that the bonus will be split in the event of multiple 6-0's in a week.

If I win Most Average or You Suck, then I just save that money, including the $25 the winner would otherwise get. If I come in first place, then You Suck and Most Average pay $50 each with the other $50 being saved by me and Second Place otherwise becoming first place, Third Place becoming Second Place and Fourth Place becoming Third Place.

In total, there is a prize pool of potentially as high as $1,120 being spread amongst 33 players, if you count me. If those numbers remain the same, then the EV of each buy is essentially $33.94. It's actually a bit better than that, because I can't actually win.

Babs and OneNickelMiracle

BeachBumBabs and OneNickelMiracle have also introduced prizes into this game. If they would like to PM me the Official Rules of their prizes, then I will include them in this thread. Please understand that those prizes are not being sponsored by me in anyway whatsoever, and therefore, should any controversy surround the awarding of any such prizes, the settling of any said controversy will be entirely their decision and has nothing to do with either myself or the Official WoV NFL Picks Game.

If it's not too late I'd like to be added to the list. Sorry I've been inactive and didn't read the rest of the thread, can anyone give me highlights? How to pay, when the first week is, etc?

Quote: Romes

If it's not too late I'd like to be added to the list. Sorry I've been inactive and didn't read the rest of the thread, can anyone give me highlights? How to pay, when the first week is, etc?

Hi romes.. haven't seen you in a while.

Quote: Romes

If it's not too late I'd like to be added to the list. Sorry I've been inactive and didn't read the rest of the thread, can anyone give me highlights? How to pay, when the first week is, etc?

Basically the same as last year except payment on honor system at end of year. This is the first week.

Quote: Romes

If it's not too late I'd like to be added to the list. Sorry I've been inactive and didn't read the rest of the thread, can anyone give me highlights? How to pay, when the first week is, etc?

Welcome back, Romes! There is no sign-up this year -- just PM Mission your Week 1 picks and you're in. He posted the Week 1 lines last night.

As unJon said, it's basically the same as last year, except nobody is escrowing the prize fund -- you're on the honor system to pay the winner directly at the end of the contest. Also, Mission is sponsoring a weekly prize for going 6-0. There's nothing you need to do to be eligible for the prize other than make one of your picks a 'confidence' pick. If no one goes 6-0, it rolls over to the next week. There is no prize for going 5-0.

Thanks for the replies boys, I'll submit picks to Mission then!

This post is for my convenience only, printing it out. Sending out PM Reminders 1/2 for this week:

1. terapined
2. Ayecarumba
3. Paradigm
4. Bruce 1
5. mwalz9
6. unJon
7. michael9900
8. JohnnyQ
9. Onenicklemiracle
10. SOOPOO
11. GenWyzgy
12. prozema
13. Gordonm888
14. rdw4potus
15. miplet
16. GWAE
17. Johnzimbo
18. scolist
19. IndyJeffrey
20. Joeman
21. kuma
22. djatc
23. MidwestAP
24. Odiousgambit
25. Sparty10k
26. RisingDough
27. Wizard
28. Mission146
29. BeachBumBabs
30. EdCollins
31. JW17
32. Gordonm888
33. FourFiveFace
34. Romes

UPDATE

GordonM888 is on the list twice, for some reason (I'm an idiot), but with the addition of Romes and assuming everyone picks, the post above with the prizes and payouts still holds up.

The first round of PM's is sent with the second round to go out tomorrow to anyone who has yet to make Picks.

Prozema-Mission-OneNickelMiracle Trophy

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/33577-prozema-mission-onenickelmiracle-trophy/

I don't know whether or not the Picks were forwarded to OneNickelMiracle as per the rules, but I can say that eight sets of Picks have been sent fitting his rules for early Friday entry. I don't know how he wants to tally it, but I'm keeping a tally of it with myself.

I also don't know if he wants to list the people who made qualifying Picks, I would say no, only because I think it's something of a competitive disadvantage to everyone to do that. If they're trying to win it, they probably don't want others to know they are trying to win it. Therefore, if I list anything at all, (and I am keeping an actual record of this) I'll just list the number of people to make such Picks.

From the above-linked thread, I also understand (unless I'm mistaken) that Picks not being changed once sent is a qualifier. I'll do my best to try to keep an eye on that, I'd say the mean average number of people to change their Picks in a given week is 3.5.

I've also decided that I will play for the trophy partially bearing my name, so I say this out of full disclosure. I think there are few enough people going for it, and that I can't win the main prize anyway, that it has tremendous value for me. I do wish ONM would extend the Sunday thing to at least 10 minutes before deadline in case there is an internet lag, or something. In short, if I successfully complete the requirements for this prize, and am the only one do so, then all I have to do is outpick ONM and I win the prize. That's basically 50/50 the way I look at it.

Update:

The second set of reminder PM’s has been sent. There were 12 reminder PM’s sent, there are 22 sets of Picks in. One reminder PM sent was by mistake, and I did not feel the need to PM myself.

Quote: Mission146

UPDATE

GordonM888 is on the list twice, for some reason (I'm an idiot), but with the addition of Romes and assuming everyone picks, the post above with the prizes and payouts still holds up.

The first round of PM's is sent with the second round to go out tomorrow to anyone who has yet to make Picks.

Prozema-Mission-OneNickelMiracle Trophy

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/33577-prozema-mission-onenickelmiracle-trophy/

I don't know whether or not the Picks were forwarded to OneNickelMiracle as per the rules, but I can say that eight sets of Picks have been sent fitting his rules for early Friday entry. I don't know how he wants to tally it, but I'm keeping a tally of it with myself.

I also don't know if he wants to list the people who made qualifying Picks, I would say no, only because I think it's something of a competitive disadvantage to everyone to do that. If they're trying to win it, they probably don't want others to know they are trying to win it. Therefore, if I list anything at all, (and I am keeping an actual record of this) I'll just list the number of people to make such Picks.

From the above-linked thread, I also understand (unless I'm mistaken) that Picks not being changed once sent is a qualifier. I'll do my best to try to keep an eye on that, I'd say the mean average number of people to change their Picks in a given week is 3.5.

I've also decided that I will play for the trophy partially bearing my name, so I say this out of full disclosure. I think there are few enough people going for it, and that I can't win the main prize anyway, that it has tremendous value for me. I do wish ONM would extend the Sunday thing to at least 10 minutes before deadline in case there is an internet lag, or something. In short, if I successfully complete the requirements for this prize, and am the only one do so, then all I have to do is outpick ONM and I win the prize. That's basically 50/50 the way I look at it.

All hell breaking loose on the home front, will have official rules in late and almost certainly not before the deadline to submit picks. I'm a little open to some changes. One thing I'm going to say clearly is the people who qualify will just be picked from the list, as long as the 7 and 7 comes in, the official scoring list will just transpose. Yes I'm planning on keeping the results in the dark, play at your own risk. I kind of don't like the danger being taken away with no way too send PMs to more than one person, might bring the prize down to the original amount of $150 since, that was an enticement to get those bad hombres greedy.

I'm not keen on accepting picks that weren't sent to me, because people have in accordance. There will be time for people to play right.

Quote: onenickelmiracle

Quote: Mission146

UPDATE

GordonM888 is on the list twice, for some reason (I'm an idiot), but with the addition of Romes and assuming everyone picks, the post above with the prizes and payouts still holds up.

The first round of PM's is sent with the second round to go out tomorrow to anyone who has yet to make Picks.

Prozema-Mission-OneNickelMiracle Trophy

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/33577-prozema-mission-onenickelmiracle-trophy/

I don't know whether or not the Picks were forwarded to OneNickelMiracle as per the rules, but I can say that eight sets of Picks have been sent fitting his rules for early Friday entry. I don't know how he wants to tally it, but I'm keeping a tally of it with myself.

I also don't know if he wants to list the people who made qualifying Picks, I would say no, only because I think it's something of a competitive disadvantage to everyone to do that. If they're trying to win it, they probably don't want others to know they are trying to win it. Therefore, if I list anything at all, (and I am keeping an actual record of this) I'll just list the number of people to make such Picks.

From the above-linked thread, I also understand (unless I'm mistaken) that Picks not being changed once sent is a qualifier. I'll do my best to try to keep an eye on that, I'd say the mean average number of people to change their Picks in a given week is 3.5.

I've also decided that I will play for the trophy partially bearing my name, so I say this out of full disclosure. I think there are few enough people going for it, and that I can't win the main prize anyway, that it has tremendous value for me. I do wish ONM would extend the Sunday thing to at least 10 minutes before deadline in case there is an internet lag, or something. In short, if I successfully complete the requirements for this prize, and am the only one do so, then all I have to do is outpick ONM and I win the prize. That's basically 50/50 the way I look at it.

All hell breaking loose on the home front, will have official rules in late and almost certainly not before the deadline to submit picks. I'm a little open to some changes. One thing I'm going to say clearly is the people who qualify will just be picked from the list, as long as the 7 and 7 comes in, the official scoring list will just transpose. Yes I'm planning on keeping the results in the dark, play at your own risk. I kind of don't like the danger being taken away with no way too send PMs to more than one person, might bring the prize down to the original amount of $150 since, that was an enticement to get those bad hombres greedy.

I'm not keen on accepting picks that weren't sent to me, because people have in accordance. There will be time for people to play right.

but you do know that I could send my official pick to mission on Friday and then send you the email 2 min before deadline if you getting the pick is what counts.

Quote: GWAE

but you do know that I could send my official pick to mission on Friday and then send you the email 2 min before deadline if you getting the pick is what counts.

Maybe. I guess it depends if he does cross-confirmation.

OneNickelMiracle-Mission-Prozema Trophy

This is not an official part of the game, but I am doing record-keeping on it. The Picks will go up shortly after this post.

I'm waiting for confirmation that OneNickelMiracle also received the Picks, but here are the number of qualifying entries for his prize so far:

FRIDAY BEFORE 6:00p.m. EST: 10

WITHIN TWO MINUTES OF DEADLINE: 1

I also have a set of Picks that were one minute late, but will be allowed, because I hadn't even started to post the Picks yet.

The order of the Picks, when posted, will also be semi-random even though it's a semi- pain in my ass. The reason for this is so that ideally nobody knows who is or isn't going for the ONM prize.

Quote: Mission146

I also have a set of Picks that were one minute late, but will be allowed,

Is this about the OMP side bet, or the main contest? I assume it is about the OMP distraction, because if I remember correctly the rules were to be enforced to the letter this year?

Quote: Mission146

OneNickelMiracle-Mission-Prozema Trophy

This is not an official part of the game, but I am doing record-keeping on it. The Picks will go up shortly after this post.

I'm waiting for confirmation that OneNickelMiracle also received the Picks, but here are the number of qualifying entries for his prize so far:

FRIDAY BEFORE 6:00p.m. EST: 10

WITHIN TWO MINUTES OF DEADLINE: 1

I also have a set of Picks that were one minute late, but will be allowed, because I hadn't even started to post the Picks yet.

The order of the Picks, when posted, will also be semi-random even though it's a semi- pain in my ass. The reason for this is so that ideally nobody knows who is or isn't going for the ONM prize.

Number of weeks before Mission has had it with people playing this game: 2

I'll bet the under.

Quote: SOOPOO

Is this about the OMP side bet, or the main contest? I assume it is about the OMP distraction, because if I remember correctly the rules were to be enforced to the letter this year?

They were literally one minute late. I'm making a Commissioner decision to allow them because I hadn't even LOOKED at any of the Picks yet, much less started posting them.

Stupid power outage. And not setting a reminder on my phone. Using my skip week on week 1. Here are what they would have been:
Falcons +4
Vikings UNDER 47.5
Dolphins OVER 37.5-confidence
Jaguars UNDER 52
Panthers UNDER 50

Greetings!

As mentioned, the Picks this week are being posted in a random order because of the ONM prize. The Picks for all subsequent weeks will be posted in a semi-random order. It's not random, but it's random enough. I can't even tell you the original order, or anything close to it, and I opened all the PM's.

The WEEK 1 Picks are as follows:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/33548-official-2019-wov-picks-game-thread/#post738612

unJon:
Broncos +1.5-confidence
Rams -2
Titans UNDER 45
Ravens -6.5
Texans +7

MidwestAP:
Bills +3
49ers +1 - Confidence
Titans +5.5
Saints UNDER 53.5
Broncos +1.5

IndyJeffrey:
Redskins UNDER 46
49ers UNDER 51
Lions UNDER 46.5-Confidence
Colts UNDER 44.5
Broncos UNDER 43

Sparty10k:
Rams under 50
Giants under 45.5–confidence
Steelers under 49
Texans +7
Broncos +1.5

RisingDough:
Eagles UNDER 46
Ravens OVER 37.5-CONFIDENCE
Cowboys -7
Broncos +1.5
Saints UNDER 53.5

Romes:
Bills +3
Bengals +9.5
Browns OVER 45.5
Texans UNDER 53.5
Texans +7 CONFIDENCE

Wizard:
Bills (+3) -- confidence
Dolphins (+6.5)
Cowboys (-7)
Steelers (+6)
Texans (+7)

BeachBumBabs:
Vikings -4 confidence
Bengals +9.5
Chargers -6.5
Chiefs -3.5
Saints -7

PlayYourCardsRight:
Buccaneers -1
Chiefs -3.5
Chiefs UNDER 52
Rams -2 -- CONFIDENCE
Broncos +1.5

EdCollins:
Rams -2 Confidence
Cowboys -7
Chiefs -3.5
Ravens -6.5
Seahawks -9.5

scolist:
Chiefs -3.5
Chargers -6.5
Patriots UNDER 49
Cowboys -7
Jets UNDER 41

JohnZimbo:
Browns -5.5
Ravens -6.5
Lions under 46.5 confidence
Cowboys -7
Saints -7

Joeman:
Ravens -6.5 -Confidence
Giants UNDER 45.5
Chiefs -3.5
Browns -5.5
Steelers +6

Paradigm:
Broncos +1.5-Confidence
Steelers +6
Steelers Under 49
Dolphins Over 37.5
Chargers -6.5

FourFiveFace:
Falcons +4-Confidence
Redskins +10
Dolphins +6.5
Panthers +2
Colts +6.5

DJATC:
Redskins UNDER 46
Ravens OVER 37.5-CONFIDENCE
Chiefs UNDER 52
Texans UNDER 53.5
Broncos +1.5

Mission146:
Chiefs -3.5
Lions -2.5
Broncos +1.5-CONFIDENCE
Bills OVER 41
Eagles UNDER 46

prozema:
Redskins Under 46
Ravens OVER 37.5 CONFIDENCE
Jaguars UNDER 52
Cowboys -7
Bills +3

Mwalz9:
CHIEFS -3.5 CONFIDENCE
PATRIOTS -6
LIONS -2.5
TITANS +5.5
SAINTS OVER 53.5

Kuma:
Eagles under 46
Bills +3
Ravens over 37.5
Texans +7
Broncos +1.5 -- confidence

rdw4potus:
Falcons +4
Falcons Under 47.5
Broncos +1.5-Confidence
Broncos under 43
rams -2

JW17:
Broncos +1.5 confidence
Cardinals +2.5
Chiefs -3.5
Bengals +9.5
Buccaneers Under 51

SOOPOO:
Falcons +4
Chiefs -3.5 Confidence
Bills + 3
Texans +7
Titans +5.5

Ayecarumba:
Ravens -6.5
Rams -2
Cardinals +2.5
Chargers -6.5
Browns -5.5 -Confidence

Odiousgambit:
Eagles -10-confidence
Cardinals +2.5
Seahawks -9.5
Texans under 53.5
Steelers over 49

GenWyzgy:
Redskins UNDER 46
Titans UNDER 45.5 Confidence
Cowboys -7
Cardinals +2.5
Bills UNDER 41

Michael99000:
Eagles UNDER 46 CONFIDENCE
Jets OVER 41
Dolphins OVER 37.5
Buccaneers UNDER 51
Jaguars UNDER 52

GWAE:
Jets -3
Browns -5.5
Rams -2
Bengals OVER 44
Chargers -6.5 CONFIDENCE

JohnnyQ:
Redskins (+10) confidence
Dolphins (+6.5)
Titans (+5.5)
Bengals (+9.5)
Texans (+7)

Gordonm888:
Jets UNDER 41 (Confidence)
Jets -3
Jaguars +3.5
Panthers +2
Colts +6.5

Miplet:
SKIPS WEEK 1

NOTES:

1.) It looks like we have thirty to Week 1, myself included. It appears that we are missing OneNickelMiracle. Miplet just posted that Week 1 is his Skip Week due mainly to a power outage, so that's 31 players officially if we are going to put him down as a skip. We are missing Terapined. We are missing Bruce1.

I went back and looked and BOTH reminder PM's were sent to the three players who are completely unaccounted for. They, as well as anyone else, have the option of joining the game in Week 2 and having Week 1 be their Skip Week. I'm not listing them as Skip Weeks yet because I don't know if they will play or not, but I will list them accordingly if they say something.

2.) Only TEN sets of picks this week were submitted in the correct format. PM's with Picks in the correct format were sent out accordingly. The most common issue was not typing one's name followed by a colon at the top, such as:

Mission146:
Chiefs -3.5
Lions -2.5
Broncos +1.5-CONFIDENCE
Bills OVER 41
Eagles UNDER 46

The reason I like the handles to appear at the top is because it makes it much easier for me. Straight copy/paste. I don't even have to look at who the PMs are from. Not only that, but we obviously have to list who the Picks belong to, anyway.

3.) I reconfirmed and there were ten qualifying Friday entries and one qualifying Sunday entry for the ONM prize. These have no final confirmation because I haven't heard back from ONM yet to confirm that he also received the PMs.

17 selections on the Broncos. (Counting a Confidence Pick as 2 selections.) NO ONE took the Raiders. What did I miss?

11 selections on the Chiefs. Just 1 pick for the Jags.

9 selections on the UNDER in the Eagles/Redskins game. No selections on the OVER.

9 selections on the OVER in the Ravens/Dolphins game. No selections on the UNDER.

Quote: EdCollins

17 selections on the Broncos. (Counting a Confidence Pick as 2 selections.) NO ONE took the Raiders. What did I miss?

11 selections on the Chiefs. Just 1 pick for the Jags.

9 selections on the UNDER in the Eagles/Redskins game. No selections on the OVER.

9 selections on the OVER in the Ravens/Dolphins game. No selections on the UNDER.

Stale Lines, the Broncos flipped from a dog to a favorite when AB was released.

For my part, I don't think the Redskins will score very much.

Quote: EdCollins

11 selections on the Chiefs. Just 1 pick for the Jags.

I picked the Jags. If you haven't seen the weather report for this game, it's supposed to be 94 degrees and humid. Direct sunlight on the Chiefs' colored jerseys will make it unbearable, particularly for the linemen.

Tyreek Hill is back but he will have Jalen Rose on him, which is a very tough matchup.

Edit: Unpredictably, Nick Foles is injured and replaced by Gardner Kinshaw !?!? So, my Jags pick is now molten guano.

I am offering a free roll (towards dinner at spring fling). I am going to use the consensus picks against the line and make those bets at my local. However what this means is my lines will be slightly different than what are posted because of the stale lines. I am also not using over/unders for a reason I do not want to discuss. I know this will make the outcome different, but this is a free roll so if you do not like it then F you. I am going to bet 1 unit per unit against the line. My unit is going to be $10. On the games that I just bet they were all -110 so my $10 will win 9.09. I know people usually bet 110 to win 100 (or 11 to win 10) so I guess technically my unit is $9.09.
So my bets will be something like this. We had 4 picks on Falcons and 2 on Vikings. If there is a confidence pick it counts as 2. So for this game I wagered 2 units on Falcons.
We had 17 on broncos and 0 on raiders so I put 17 units on the broncos.

Rules: I will donate any wins that I get on this towards dinner at the spring fling. You must be in this contest to benefit from the dinner so if you are at the spring fling but not in this contest then you get nothing. Also if you are in this contest and you do not attend the spring fling you also get nothing. I believe you can enter this contest until week 2 so you still have a chance to get in. Since Mission will not post the picks until close to game time there may be a few weeks that I do not get the picks in. The only picks that count towards this are the ones that I post each week. I gotta protect against some vulchers ordering a $30 steak so the max contribution will be $200. If there are 20 people who win then each person will get a $10 credit. I am the sole judge of this contest and can change the rules at anytime. If you don't like it then feel free to opt out.
Here is what I bet on just now.
Falcons -3.5 $20
Redskins +10 $10
Bills +2.5 $50
Ravens -7 $30
49ers +1 $10
Chiefs -3.5 $100
Browns -5.5 $10
Rams -1.5 $60
Cardinals +2.5 $20
Bengals +9.5 $20
Chargers -6 $40
Cowboys -7 $70
Steelers +6 $20
Texans +6.5 $60
Total wagered $520

I would like an opinion. In one of the weeks I was going to switch to only using the people in the top half of the standings as there may be some people starting to go for the bottom or even the middle. What do you think? If so which week should I switch?

Quote: GWAE

I am offering a free roll (towards dinner at spring fling). I am going to use the consensus picks against the line and make those bets at my local. However what this means is my lines will be slightly different than what are posted because of the stale lines. {snip}

This is an interesting experiment, but it could be expensive. It seem to me that the aggregate pick success of the contestants last year was below 50%. And that started from week 1 - so, clearly, no one was tanking to win a "You Suck" award.

Also, the 17 picks for the Broncos were based largely on the stale line after Antonio Brown was dismissed from the Raiders. So, if you're betting $170 on the current, updated line then . . . um . . . good luck! 'Cause you don't have the perceived edge that motivated all those picks.


Edit: OMG, the Dolphins suck epicly

I can't believe I missed the broncos pick. I was even drinking a Coors lite.

Quote: gordonm888

This is an interesting experiment, but it could be expensive. It seem to me that the aggregate pick success of the contestants last year was below 50%. And that started from week 1 - so, clearly, no one was tanking to win a "You Suck" award.

Also, the 17 picks for the Broncos were based largely on the stale line after Antonio Brown was dismissed from the Raiders. So, if you're betting $170 on the current, updated line then . . . um . . . good luck! 'Cause you don't have the perceived edge that motivated all those picks.


Edit: OMG, the Dolphins suck epicly

hmm so I just realized that I fed up that pick. I actually took +2.5 on oakland. I am not sure why I did that. I guess I was going to quickly and just saw the + and thought it was the right one. I wonder if I can cancel that bet, or maybe I will take the other side and just lose the vig for my stupidity.


Effective immediately... The broncos pick on my last post is voided as I accidentally took the wrong side. I also want to add, I will not make a bet on future games if there a major reason that there is so much action that makes the stale line so huge.

Quote: gordonm888

This is an interesting experiment, but it could be expensive. It seem to me that the aggregate pick success of the contestants last year was below 50%. And that started from week 1 - so, clearly, no one was tanking to win a "You Suck" award.

Also, the 17 picks for the Broncos were based largely on the stale line after Antonio Brown was dismissed from the Raiders. So, if you're betting $170 on the current, updated line then . . . um . . . good luck! 'Cause you don't have the perceived edge that motivated all those picks.


Edit: OMG, the Dolphins suck epicly

I do remember seeing those stats but I think the final stats included the last 10 weeks where people did start going for the you suck award, or even the most average. I could be wrong though. I am thinking it wont cost me toooooo much (hopefully) but if it gets out of hand I will stop. Now that I have legal sports betting I have been having fun with it. I have been crushing baseball so I figured I would do this for fun with that bankroll.

Well, everyone won their over on the Ravens game already. That was fast. Maybe Miami just sucks that bad... Hey, where is Tasha?

Also of interest is apparently the bills give up a turnover Evey 6 minutes or so.

Quote: prozema

Well, everyone won their over on the Ravens game already. That was fast. Maybe Miami just sucks that bad... Hey, where is Tasha?

Also of interest is apparently the bills give up a turnover Evey 6 minutes or so.

is that whats going on? I swear everytime it scrolls on the bottom of the screen the bills are on the 30 of Jets and then Jets have the ball. I am like WTF why are they not scoring.

same with atlanta.

Quote: GWAE

is that whats going on? I swear everytime it scrolls on the bottom of the screen the bills are on the 30 of Jets and then Jets have the ball. I am like WTF why are they not scoring.

same with atlanta.

Yup, but Lord Almighty they just scored.

You have me listed as missing, but I made my picks and am in your post.

Sparty10k, my mistake, as long as your picks are listed, you’re good. I’ll fix it.

Baker Mayfield jerseys just went on sale.
In other news the Bills are undefeated.

Quote: prozema

Baker Mayfield jerseys just went on sale.
In other news the Bills are undefeated.

Happy with the Bill's score even though I had jets on here. Only missed the stupid Atlanta game on my picks game at casino

Totals Picks: Why do I keep making them?

Quote: Mission146

Totals Picks: Why do I keep making them?

Because DJ beat the hell out of all of us last year with them?

Rats. If it's not OT, Chargers get to kick the extra point.

BeachBumBabs:
Vikings -4 confidence
Bengals +9.5
Chargers -6.5
Chiefs -3.5
Saints -7

And I didn't take Detroit, though it wasn't slotted behind the Chargers. But that was the other one I was looking at. Still, no matter how Saints do, I'm over .500 . So that's something, I guess.

Dang TD and 2 pt conversion in the final minute by AZ cost me my Confidence pick :(

Quote: Johnzimbo

Dang TD and 2 pt conversion in the final minute by AZ cost me my Confidence pick :(

If there’s a team that can screw up a nearly perfect game by the QB, it’s the Detroit Lions.

Quote: Johnzimbo

Dang TD and 2 pt conversion in the final minute by AZ cost me my Confidence pick :(

Dang Titans in the 4th quarter cost me my Confidence pick. hehe....

Everyone who picked the Broncos needs some help.

Quote: prozema

Everyone who picked the Broncos needs some help.

Joe Cool is a second half QB.

My automated Wizard of Vegas Forum Contest Grading Calculator now generates this weekly consensus table. If it is of interest to anyone, I can post it early each Sunday morning, soon after Mission posts everyone's picks.

Week 1 Consensus

Game	Line	Total	Visitor	Home	Over	Under
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears	-	-
Los Angeles Rams @ Carolina Panthers	2	50	8	2		1
Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns	-5.5	45.5	4	5	1	3
Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars	3.5	52	11	1		4
Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins	6.5	37.5	6	3	9
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings	-4	47.5	4	2		1
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets	-3	41	7	2	2	4
Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles	-10	46	3	2		9
Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Chargers	-6.5	44.5	2	6		1
Cincinnati Bengals @ Seattle Seahawks	-9.5	44	4	2	1
Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals	2.5	46.5	2	4		4
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys	-7	45.5		7		3
San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-1	51	2	1		3
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots	-6	49	3	1	1	3
Houston Texans @ New Orleans Saints	-7	53.5	8	2	1	5
Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders	-1.5	43	17			2

Thanks to everyone who is participating, thanks to those making additional contributions to the prize fund, and of course thanks to Mission for hosting.

And away we go...

Week 1 Results and Current Standings

unJon (3-3)
Broncos +1.5 Confidence (loss)
Rams -2 (win)
Titans UNDER 45 (loss)
Ravens -6.5 (win)
Texans +7 (win)

MidwestAP (4-2)
Bills +3 (win)
49ers +1 Confidence (win)
Titans +5.5 (win)
Saints UNDER 53.5 (loss)
Broncos +1.5 (loss)

IndyJeffrey (2-4)
Redskins UNDER 46 (loss)
49ers UNDER 51 (win)
Lions UNDER 46.5 Confidence (loss)
Colts UNDER 44.5 (loss)
Broncos UNDER 43 (win)

Sparty10k (2-4)
Rams UNDER 50 (loss)
Giants UNDER 45.5–Confidence (loss)
Steelers UNDER 49 (win)
Texans +7 (win)
Broncos +1.5 (loss)

RisingDough (3-3)
Eagles UNDER 46 (loss)
Ravens OVER 37.5 Confidence (win)
Cowboys -7 (win)
Broncos +1.5 (loss)
Saints UNDER 53.5 (loss)

Romes (5-1)
Bills +3 (win)
Bengals +9.5 (win)
Browns OVER 45.5 (win)
Texans UNDER 53.5 (loss)
Texans +7 Confidence (win)

Wizard (4-2)
Bills (+3) Confidence (win)
Dolphins (+6.5) (loss)
Cowboys (-7) (win)
Steelers (+6) (loss)
Texans (+7) (win)

BeachBumBabs (4-2)
Vikings -4 Confidence (win)
Bengals +9.5 (win)
Chargers -6.5 (loss)
Chiefs -3.5 (win)
Saints -7 (loss)

PlayYourCardsRight (3-3)
Buccaneers -1 (loss)
Chiefs -3.5 (win)
Chiefs UNDER 52 (loss)
Rams -2 Confidence (win)
Broncos +1.5 (loss)

EdCollins (5-1)
Rams -2 Confidence (win)
Cowboys -7 (win)
Chiefs -3.5 (win)
Ravens -6.5 (win)
Seahawks -9.5 (loss)

scolist (4-1)
Chiefs -3.5 (win)
Chargers -6.5 (loss)
Patriots UNDER 49 (win)
Cowboys -7 (win)
Jets UNDER 41 (win)

JohnZimbo (2-4)
Browns -5.5 (loss)
Ravens -6.5 (win)
Lions UNDER 46.5 Confidence (loss)
Cowboys -7 (win)
Saints -7 (loss)

Joeman (3-3)
Ravens -6.5 Confidence (win)
Giants UNDER 45.5 (loss)
Chiefs -3.5 (win)
Browns -5.5 (loss)
Steelers +6 (loss)

Paradigm (2-4)
Broncos +1.5 Confidence (loss)
Steelers +6 (loss)
Steelers UNDER 49 (win)
Dolphins OVER 37.5 (win)
Chargers -6.5 (loss)

FourFiveFace (2-4)
Falcons +4 Confidence (loss)
Redskins +10 (win)
Dolphins +6.5 (loss)
Panthers +2 (loss)
Colts +6.5 (win)

DJATC (2-4)
Redskins UNDER 46 (loss)
Ravens OVER 37.5 Confidence (win)
Chiefs UNDER 52 (loss)
Texans UNDER 53.5 (loss)
Broncos +1.5 (loss)

Mission146 (1-5)
Chiefs -3.5 (win)
Lions -2.5 (loss)
Broncos +1.5 Confidence (loss)
Bills OVER 41 (loss)
Eagles UNDER 46 (loss)

prozema (4-2)
Redskins UNDER 46 (loss)
Ravens OVER 37.5 Confidence (win)
Jaguars UNDER 52 (loss)
Cowboys -7 (win)
Bills +3 (win)

Mwalz9 (5-1)
CHIEFS -3.5 Confidence (win)
PATRIOTS -6 (win)
LIONS -2.5 (loss)
TITANS +5.5 (win)
SAINTS OVER 53.5 (win)

Kuma (3-3)
Eagles UNDER 46 (loss)
Bills +3 (win)
Ravens OVER 37.5 (win)
Texans +7 (win)
Broncos +1.5 Confidence (loss)

rdw4potus (3-3)
Falcons +4 (loss)
Falcons UNDER 47.5 (win)
Broncos +1.5 Confidence (loss)
Broncos UNDER 43 (win)
rams -2 (win)

JW17 (4-2)
Broncos +1.5 Confidence (loss)
Cardinals +2.5 (win)
Chiefs -3.5 (win)
Bengals +9.5 (win)
Buccaneers UNDER 51 (win)

SOOPOO (5-1)
Falcons +4 (loss)
Chiefs -3.5 Confidence (win)
Bills + 3 (win)
Texans +7 (win)
Titans +5.5 (win)

Ayecarumba (3-3)
Ravens -6.5 (win)
Rams -2 (win)
Cardinals +2.5 (win)
Chargers -6.5 (loss)
Browns -5.5 Confidence (loss)

Odiousgambit (1-5)
Eagles -10 Confidence (loss)
Cardinals +2.5 (win)
Seahawks -9.5 (loss)
Texans UNDER 53.5 (loss)
Steelers OVER 49 (loss)

GenWyzgy (3-3)
Redskins UNDER 46 (loss)
Titans UNDER 45.5 Confidence (loss)
Cowboys -7 (win)
Cardinals +2.5 (win)
Bills UNDER 41 (win)

Michael99000 (2-4)
Eagles UNDER 46 Confidence (loss)
Jets OVER 41 (loss)
Dolphins OVER 37.5 (win)
Buccaneers UNDER 51 (win)
Jaguars UNDER 52 (loss)

GWAE (1-5)
Jets -3 (loss)
Browns -5.5 (loss)
Rams -2 (win)
Bengals OVER 44 (loss)
Chargers -6.5 Confidence (loss)

JohnnyQ (5-1)
Redskins (+10) Confidence (win)
Dolphins (+6.5) (loss)
Titans (+5.5) (win)
Bengals (+9.5) (win)
Texans (+7) (win)

Gordonm888 (3-3)
Jets UNDER 41 (Confidence) (win)
Jets -3 (loss)
Jaguars +3.5 (loss)
Panthers +2 (loss)
Colts +6.5 (win)

Name	Wins	Losses	%
EdCollins	5	1	83.33%
JohnnyQ	5	1	83.33%
Mwalz9	5	1	83.33%
Romes	5	1	83.33%
SOOPOO	5	1	83.33%
scolist	4	1	80.00%
BeachBumBabs	4	2	66.67%
JW17	4	2	66.67%
MidwestAP	4	2	66.67%
prozema	4	2	66.67%
Wizard	4	2	66.67%
Ayecarumba	3	3	50.00%
GenWyzgy	3	3	50.00%
Gordonm888	3	3	50.00%
Joeman	3	3	50.00%
Kuma	3	3	50.00%
PlayYourCardsRight	3	3	50.00%
rdw4potus	3	3	50.00%
RisingDough	3	3	50.00%
unJon	3	3	50.00%
DJATC	2	4	33.33%
FourFiveFace	2	4	33.33%
IndyJeffrey	2	4	33.33%
JohnZimbo	2	4	33.33%
Michael99000	2	4	33.33%
Paradigm	2	4	33.33%
Sparty10k	2	4	33.33%
GWAE	1	5	16.67%
Mission146	1	5	16.67%
Odiousgambit	1	5	16.67%
Totals	93	86	51.96%

Record of Skip Weeks

Week 1: N/A (If anyone submits picks in Week 2 who did not submit any picks in Week 1, they will then be considered a Week 1 Skip.)


Perfection Bonus Amount

Now $20.00.

One weekend, and I've already gotten a head start on being the most average. Come and get me, suckers and 😂🤣😂🤣

Ugh, first half 14-3 was looking like the perfection bonus with Texas/Saints UNDER 53.5... Drew put up a hell of a second half to push me back on the 5-1. Not a bad first week though =).

Quote: PlayYourCardsRight

One weekend, and I've already gotten a head start on being the most average. Come and get me, suckers and 😂🤣😂🤣

hehe.... Nice try, but who's #1 on the average list?.... Thank you alphabetical sorting!

I'm not sure how I feel about the Brown's disappointing meltdown. I predict a bounce back in week 2!

Quote: gordonm888

This is an interesting experiment, but it could be expensive. It seem to me that the aggregate pick success of the contestants last year was below 50%. And that started from week 1 - so, clearly, no one was tanking to win a "You Suck" award.

Also, the 17 picks for the Broncos were based largely on the stale line after Antonio Brown was dismissed from the Raiders. So, if you're betting $170 on the current, updated line then . . . um . . . good luck! 'Cause you don't have the perceived edge that motivated all those picks.


Edit: OMG, the Dolphins suck epicly

damn you gordon. You brought my error to my attention so I got out of the bet.

Quote: EdCollins

My automated Wizard of Vegas Forum Contest Grading Calculator now generates this weekly consensus table. If it is of interest to anyone, I can post it early each Sunday morning, soon after Mission posts everyone's picks.

Week 1 Consensus

Game	Line	Total	Visitor	Home	Over	Under
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears	-	-
Los Angeles Rams @ Carolina Panthers	2	50	8	2		1
Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns	-5.5	45.5	4	5	1	3
Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars	3.5	52	11	1		4
Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins	6.5	37.5	6	3	9
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings	-4	47.5	4	2		1
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets	-3	41	7	2	2	4
Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles	-10	46	3	2		9
Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Chargers	-6.5	44.5	2	6		1
Cincinnati Bengals @ Seattle Seahawks	-9.5	44	4	2	1
Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals	2.5	46.5	2	4		4
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys	-7	45.5		7		3
San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-1	51	2	1		3
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots	-6	49	3	1	1	3
Houston Texans @ New Orleans Saints	-7	53.5	8	2	1	5
Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders	-1.5	43	17			2

I don't know if you saw the betting that I am doing but yes if your system does it automatically it would be great help to me because I am placing bets based on these. It took me about 30 min to do it manually.

Duplicate post.

Sorry!

Quote: Romes

Ugh, first half 14-3 was looking like the perfection bonus with Texas/Saints UNDER 53.5... Drew put up a hell of a second half to push me back on the 5-1. Not a bad first week though =).

I feel ya. I had the Lions for a perfection bonus. Look how that one ended!