2019 WoV Picks game (discussion thread)

Quote: Ayecarumba

Confidence losses do real damage to a player's win percentage. It seems more so than the boost provided by a confidence win.

I'm curious if Sparty was actually trying to make losing picks, or just fell into them.

Quote: GWAE

Going to ask this question in here about the playoff game. We have some money to add to a playoff pool. Let me know your opinion and feel free to PM it if you dont want it posted on here.

Going to throw this out there as food for thought. This game has earned money based on peoples picks. The playoff freeroll is going to be open to everyone that participated in the regular season game. The question, there are people that stopped picking months ago and also people that have been using default picks most of the year. Do I allow those people to get a full share? I could weight it so that if you only contributed 4 out of 16 weeks then you only get 25% of the prize money that you might win.

Quote: GWAE

Going to ask this question in here about the playoff game. We have some money to add to a playoff pool. Let me know your opinion and feel free to PM it if you dont want it posted on here.

Going to throw this out there as food for thought. This game has earned money based on peoples picks. The playoff freeroll is going to be open to everyone that participated in the regular season game. The question, there are people that stopped picking months ago and also people that have been using default picks most of the year. Do I allow those people to get a full share? I could weight it so that if you only contributed 4 out of 16 weeks then you only get 25% of the prize money that you might win.

Quote: michael99000

You had this good idea to do this, and you put all the bets in, so I’d say whatever you decide is fine.

I would also say that if people’s default picks were included in the pick tallies that you based the bets on, then those people did have an effect on this doing so well. They just put less time into it. And maybe for some of those people, if they knew from the get go that they’d be excluded from the playoff pool for submitting defaults , would have made actual picks.

Quote: Ayecarumba

Your game, your rules. That being said, I think the weighting by participation seems fair at first blush, but how fine do you cut it? Will those who took a skip week, or joined late only be eligible for a partial share? Everyone owes the same entry fee regardless...

Quote: GWAE

I am trying to be fair to everyone. The entry fee plays no part in this as it was my own thing so that doesnt weigh in on my final decision but you make a good point as to where I cut it. One of those NCAA bracket things where no matter where you end it someone is left behind.


When looking at the skips there are some people that bowed out really early.

When thinking about this more, I have made some good friends on this site over the last 6 years and would hate to alienate someone and cause a rift.

Quote: GWAE

Default picks were for over/under which we did not bet on so they did not count. You have a good point that if I were to exclude that at the beginning then maybe they would have made more picks. Maybe them making more picks would have been been bad for us... or maybe it would have been better.

Quote: EdCollins

Note that I never dropped anyone from the standings, even if that player had many multiple Skip Weeks. We have no rule about when someone should or shouldn't be dropped, and whom am I to say they still couldn't make picks late in the season, and mount a huge comeback. Furthermore, if I dropped them and then they did start making picks again, I'd then have to add them back in so their record was accurate... and all of that would be way too much work.

Quote:

So no one got dropped. Per the rules, they simply took an 0-5 Forfeit Week over and over and over. However, next year we might want to include a rule that says after x number of Skip Weeks (two? three?) you're dropped for good.

Finally, can we eliminate Default Picks next year? For one, I think they're stupid but more importantly, they never get posted initially anyway. If you can't remember to make your picks by Saturday night/early Sunday morning (and there must be a dozen different methods available to remind you), then I say you must take an 0-5 forfeit. "Default picks" seem like way more work than what they are worth.

Quote: SOOPOO

Thanks Mission. But WHOLEHEARTEDLY against allowing a 0-1 week as an option. It is certainly possible that taking an 0-1 week in week 17 could ensure you first place if your lead was enough, while a possible 0-5 week would be enough for you to not win.

Quote: SOOPOO

...I never pick over/under...... But over 48 Falcons Bucs looks good!

Quote: Ayecarumba

Why?

Quote: Romes

Who do I owe money how for this tournament?

Quote: miplet

Default picks (please double check)

Steelers UNDER 37
Saints UNDER 46
Jets UNDER 36.5
Cowboys UNDER 45.5
Browns UNDER 36

Quote: Ayecarumba

I recall that defaults this year are the first 5 non-duplicate games from your ranked list, and only Overs.

Quote: Romes

Who do I owe money how for this tournament?

Quote: Mission146

Probably a week or so after it ends I'm going to sit down and hammer out all of those details. I have a bunch of people to pay out myself, so I'm going to kind of get how everyone wants it figured out and try to do it in one day. At that time, I'll also figure out who else is paying who and will PM accordingly.

Quote: Mission146

WEEK 16 JW17 ($10) Joeman ($10)

Quote: miplet

Default picks (please double check)

Steelers OVER 37
Saints OVER 46
Jets OVER 36.5
Cowboys OVER 45.5
Browns OVER 43.5

Quote: EdCollins

Week 17 Consensus

Game	Line	Total	Visitor	Home	Over	Under
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills	-1.5	36.5	2	4	2
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers	13	46	5	2	2	2
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals	3	43.5	4	2	4
Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys	-11	45.5	5		3
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions	12.5	43	1	1
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans	3.5	45.5	6	3	1	3
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars	3.5	42.5	8	1	1
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs	-9	45.5	2	3
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings	3	36	1	5	1	1
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots	-16	45	3	2
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants	4	45	6	4	1
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens	1.5	37	1	5	4	1
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0	48	4	5	2	3
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos	-3.5	41	2	4	3
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams	-4.5	45	2	3	1
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks	3.5	47	20	36	4	6

The 49ers/Seahawks game is almost certainly a new record, for the most picks on one game.

Quote: GWAE

I think something went wrong on your calcs. I only have them at 3 picks for 49ers and 6 seattle. We dont even have 56 possible picks this week.

Quote: GWAE

Should we wait until after superbowl since there are additional prizes or is that too long to wait?

Quote: Johnzimbo

My Panthers pick should be a confidence pick

Quote: EdCollins

Please note that Genwyzgy was also perfect (6-0) last week... his second time doing so.

Quote: Mission146

Negative, I’m afraid. Check your PM outbox.