College Football Picks 2019
Quote: GWAEPA I have Utah at +7, seems like a good middle there.
If you can get Utah +7 that is a mistake and bet as much as you can afford. In Nevada it is -6.5 to -7 almost everywhere.
Quote: DRichIf you can get Utah +7 that is a mistake and bet as much as you can afford. In Nevada it is -6.5 to -7 almost everywhere.
I meant the + side is +7, I typed that wrong.
Quote: DRichIf you can get Utah +7 that is a mistake and bet as much as you can afford. In Nevada it is -6.5 to -7 almost everywhere.
was trying to say if he got -5.5 and now can get other side for +7, seems like 1.5 spread would be a good middle, but I am new so I have no idea.
Quote: GWAEwas trying to say if he got -5.5 and now can get other side for +7, seems like 1.5 spread would be a good middle, but I am new so I have no idea.
No value in that especially in college. Too small a spread and it doesn't cross the key number of three.
Quote: DRichNo value in that especially in college. Too small a spread and it doesn't cross the key number of three.
meh, see I know nothing yet.
Quote: JoelDezeThursday Wagers. Removed the barcodes. If I have time tomorrow night, I'll post some analytics before Thursday. If not, I'll do so for Saturday games.
Utah -5.5 ats
FIU +125 ml
FIU/"TUL" OV 57.5
UCLA +115 ml
Tough night. Down another $167.25 ($367.25 total). Should have stuck to original CAR plan. It's too early to quit now. Are you making more this weekend?
let me fix that for you...Quote: IndyJeffreyTough night. Down another $167.25 ($367.25 total). Should have stuck to original CAR plan. It's too early to quit now. Are you making more this weekend?
Are you losing more this weekend?
🤣🤣🤣
Quote: JoelDeze\ The total is also at 57 and I'm saying it right now, this game is definitely going over 57. I just can't play the totals this year.
Definitely is an awful strong word. Seeing as the game went under, you should have stuck to your plan and not played totals.
Quote: AxelWolflet me fix that for you...
Are you losing more this weekend?
🤣🤣🤣
Maybe some regression to the mean. He is 1-4 in his picks so far and down about 1/3 of his bankroll.
Regression to the mean isn’t a thing for events that are a random walk.Quote: DRichMaybe some regression to the mean. He is 1-4 in his picks so far and down about 1/3 of his bankroll.
UCLA vs Cincinnati Although the score did not reflect it, this game was dominated by Cincy. The Fighting Fickell's played pretty good defense and are a team that I wouldn't be surprised to make a major bowl game this year. Don't be surprised if Luke Fickell gets a better coaching job next year.
Utah vs BYU: Not a very exciting game but the Utah defensive line looked good as expected. The Utes offense wasn't so great and they will really need to pick it up if they expect to win the PAC 12. BYU really didn't look very good and will probably be lucky to win 7 games this year. Sadly, I fell asleep during the lightning delay and I missed the last 9 minutes of the game.
Quote: JoelDezeUtah -5.5 ats
FIU +125 ml
FIU/CIN OV 57.5
UCLA +115 ml
Utah covers
Betting on 2 dogs on the road to win (?) is a historically bad bet in NCAAF.
maybe this year will be the same as past ones.
no excuses
just the record and bankroll loss.
Hate to see it.
Quote: DRichDefinitely is an awful strong word. Seeing as the game went under, you should have stuck to your plan and not played totals.
Tough way to lose.
Score was 42-14 after the third quarter. Then no points in the fourth quarter
Quote: Mission146Don’t forget to check out the WoV Picks Game, everyone!
Go away, NFL is crap compared to college football.
Quote: michael99000Tough way to lose.
Score was 42-14 after the third quarter. Then no points in the fourth quarter
without looking back over was 57? That is a terrible way to lose.
Quote: SM777The narrative that Joel has presented in here - former $50,000 per game bettor, incredibly sharp with proprietary information that can help you win betting sports, nice guy is so funny. Because the reality is that he's betting $80 per game, getting absolutely clobbered, and is very bad at this.
Hate to see it.
I will say this. Anyone betting big on week 1 is probably very foolish. We have all had bad weeks, maybe it will turn around for him. Let's not judge the results until the end of the season.
One tout per thread please.Quote: Mission146Don’t forget to check out the WoV Picks Game, everyone!
Quote: JoelDezeThursday Wagers. Removed the barcodes. If I have time tomorrow night, I'll post some analytics before Thursday. If not, I'll do so for Saturday games.
Joel: What happened? I was looking forward to your Saturday game analytics. Will you be back for week 4?
Quote: IndyJeffreyJoel: What happened? I was looking forward to your Saturday game analytics. Will you be back for week 4?
Have you considered signing up for his service?
At this point I’m making the remainder capital available for risk on week 4.
Yeah, the toughest things about week 1 was that FIU was pegged as being an evenly matched game. I really felt that both teams would score a lot of points. When the total hit 56 in the 3rd I turned the game off. No points for the remainder of the 3rd and the 4th.
I’ll let the data build up a bit and attempt to make a good run.
Quote: JoelDeze
At this point I’m making the remainder capital available for risk on week 4.
.
Quite disappointing. You established silly parameters for your betting amounts. And of course after a dismal start you are now going to try to double up. Classic gambler out of control action. Why would you have established a "capital at risk" formula if you had NO intention of using it?
Quote: SOOPOOQuite disappointing. You established silly parameters for your betting amounts. And of course after a dismal start you are now going to try to double up. Classic gambler out of control action. Why would you have established a "capital at risk" formula if you had NO intention of using it?
I'm groggy this morning, so I'm not going to go back through the thread atm, but...
When Joel first posted his bet plans, he said he would bet week 0, then not bet weeks 1-4 (I think). He has deviated from his plan already in week 1, but that WAS the plan, so calling him out on following it is not kosher. Call him out for NOT following it, if you like.
Quote: beachbumbabsI'm groggy this morning, so I'm not going to go back through the thread atm, but...
When Joel first posted his bet plans, he said he would bet week 0, then not bet weeks 1-4 (I think). He has deviated from his plan already in week 1, but that WAS the plan, so calling him out on following it is not kosher. Call him out for NOT following it, if you like.
yep on the first post.
"This season I'll be projecting again on a week by week basis. I'm only going to project 1-5 games each week. I'll be picking a few match-ups for the week 0-1 slate, skipping weeks 2 and 3 (since I don't wager on those weeks) and starting again from week 4. My goal this season is to hopefully help anyone that wants to begin with a starting capital model of $1k for college football and build from that starting point. "
Quote: GWAEyep on the first post.
"This season I'll be projecting again on a week by week basis. I'm only going to project 1-5 games each week. I'll be picking a few match-ups for the week 0-1 slate, skipping weeks 2 and 3 (since I don't wager on those weeks) and starting again from week 4. My goal this season is to hopefully help anyone that wants to begin with a starting capital model of $1k for college football and build from that starting point. "
The bit you quote says he will bet week 1 not skip week 1.
Quote: unJonThe bit you quote says he will bet week 1 not skip week 1.
yes and that is what he did. He got slaughtered on week 1. They just happened to be on Thursday which is still week 1. My guess is if he did well on thursday would have played saturday too, but just a guess.
Quote: JoelDezeWill be back in week 4. I didn’t want to wager anymore for week 1. Was at $800 after week 0. $632 after week 1.
At this point I’m making the remainder capital available for risk on week 4.
Wasn't this week 4? Where are Joel's picks?
Will open picks back up on Week 6 (Oct 4th). The only difference is I'm removing the cap risk restrictions.
Original Bank Roll: $1,000
Remaining Bank Roll: $640
See you on Oct 4th.
Quote: JoelDeze. The only difference is I'm removing the cap risk restrictions.
Why change the system you set out to use? Why not just stick to it this year and remove it next year?
Dr. ich itching for picks.Quote: DRichWhyge the system you set out to use? Why not just stick to it this year and remove it next year?
Just head to Twitter there's plenty of bad information over there if you're really jonesing.
Quote: DRichWhy change the system you set out to use? Why not just stick to it this year and remove it next year?
In a futile attempt to show a profit so he can advertise a profit to lure in a new member to his paid site. Why else?
Quote: SM777In a futile attempt to show a profit so he can advertise a profit to lure in a new member to his paid site. Why else?
I know, it was a rhetorical question.
There are a lot of reasons to like Auburn.
Against FBS, Auburn is 4-0 ATS.
Auburn is undefeated.
Auburn has played a stronger schedule.
Auburn is great at stealing away 1 or 2 early scores to gain a solid edge.
Auburn has won the last 3 meetings, although it's been quite awhile since they last met.
Why I'm going with Florida.
Florida is undefeated.
Florida is playing at home.
Florida's defense is an overall 8th (by TSRS metrics) vs. Auburn at 33rd. This metric handles strength of opposition and also handles inflated statistics.
Florida is dominating via Sacks ( #2 ), Tackles for Loss ( #7 ) and RedZone Defense ( #1 ). They are only allowing opponents a 38.5% conversion.
Florida has a massive edge in Special Teams ( Overall #13 vs. Auburn at 104th ).
Florida has tremendous depth on Defense and are getting back their two strongest defensive players this week.
Auburn has not faced a defense anywhere near Florida's.
Florida had inconsistencies with Franks at QB and now that Kyle Trask is in, he's completing 77% of his passes and is quick on his delivery and plays with more confidence than Franks did.
Florida's running game has been a bit stagnant behind Perine but they will be shifting to Dameon Pierce who is playing extremely well, and has more upside.
Florida is allowing opponents 8.8 points per game ( #5 ). Auburn is allowing 17.2 points per game ( #22 ).
Florida is scoring 34 points per game to Auburn's 38.
Auburn projects out at a 99.5141 TSRS rating. (Ranked # 5)
Florida projects out at a 94.6926 TSRS rating. (Ranked # 9)
I see it coming down to a big special teams play, big defensive play, or who manages turnovers and penalties better. Both offenses are strong. Although, Florida's receivers are 2nd in the SEC behind Alabama in terms of sheer size and talent. The Gators have also started implementing a tight end like they used to when Aaron Hernandez was playing. Kyle Pitts is very similar ( 6'6", 240 lbs ) and is a very big bodied long armed receiver. He has 17 receptions for 189 yards, 11.1 yard average and 3 TDs so far this season.
Score Prediction: Florida 34, Auburn 24.
Quote: DRichGood luck Joel, I haven't finished my analysis yet but I am leaning to Auburn. My first impression is that the Auburn nose tackle and Ends are going to dominate the o-line of Florida.
Yeah, the one consistent weakness with Florida has been their O-line this season, although they have gotten better over the last couple of weeks. This is a big game and Florida has made some adjustments and shifted to a quick passing attack. Their offense looks a little like a combination of Mullen/Spurrier to be honest. It's part option/read and fun n' gun. Whatever issues they have will happen early and they will make adjustments.
Florida's defense will keep them in the game. Field position will be an edge for Florida.
I'll be interested to see how Nix (Auburn's freshman QB) stands up to the Florida blitz's. Like I mentioned when Florida played Miami, it would be a long game for their QB. The Gators ended up creating 10 sacks and 15 TFLs that game. Nix is mobile and has some confidence. Florida just finished playing Towson, who is a Top 10 FCS team that gave LSU fits a couple of years ago. They run the exact offense that Auburn runs so Florida got a tune-up before this week. And, they blanked that very good offense 38-0. Tom Flacco was their QB (brother of Joe Flacco).
Its barely October and it’s now turned into a loss chasing dumpster fire that should be shown to newbie sports bettors as to what not to do.
I have no idea why this made me laugh, but it did.Quote: michael99000The original post detailed a methodical ,disciplined ,systematic approach to grinding out a profit over the course of the season.
Its barely October and it’s now turned into a loss chasing dumpster fire that should be shown to newbie sports bettors as to what not to do.
Quote: michael99000The original post detailed a methodical ,disciplined ,systematic approach to grinding out a profit over the course of the season.
Its barely October and it’s now turned into a loss chasing dumpster fire that should be shown to newbie sports bettors as to what not to do.
I think I made this point earlier. But not as elegantly as you just did!
Quote: michael99000The original post detailed a methodical ,disciplined ,systematic approach to grinding out a profit over the course of the season.
Its barely October and it’s now turned into a loss chasing dumpster fire that should be shown to newbie sports bettors as to what not to do.
PlEasE SiGn uP 4 mY SubSCriPtiON - I aM ThE BeSt HaNDiCapPeR
Kyle Trask's stats at QB were compiled against Towson and Tennessee. I watched every minute of the Tennessee game, and their secondary played so far behind the wide receivers that they should be called "The Tertiary." Tennessee has an inside linebacker who is great against the run but slow in pass coverage and Florida exploited that with passes down the middle (over the linebacker) time after time after time. Auburn doesn't have those weaknesses.
Tennessee would have scored another 14 points against Florida except for incompetence on their part - missing a wide open receiver who was standing behind all the Florida defenders, and a pass in the end zone that bounced off a wide receiver's hands and was intercepted by Florida. That's NOT great defense - just incompetent opponents.
Florida has faced poor teams and has been unable to run the ball.
Quote: gordonm888Sorry, Joel, but all the SEC analysts are picking Auburn to win.
That is good for Joel, the analysts are wrong more than right.
I think if the offensive line struggles the young quarterback is going to have a very bad day.
Added a ML play on Florida as well for the last $140.
Capital end of Week 5: $640
Risked remaining $640 on 2 plays for the same game (+ATS on Florida) and (+ML on Florida) on week 6, winning both.
Florida won 24-13.
Net Won this week: $629.55
New Capital: $1,269.55
Game Rundown:
Score prediction was 34-24 in favor of Florida. They covered by 1 more point. Both defenses played really well and both teams turned the ball over 4 times each. Auburn's defense held Florida to 30 yards under their average. Florida held Auburn to more than 200 yards below their average, including limiting them to only 12 first downs. Their RedZone defense is #1 in the nation and you could tell in this game.
I mentioned in my previous post that: "I see it coming down to a big special teams play, big defensive play, or who manages turnovers and penalties better. "
See you in week 7.
chase systems works until it does not work (LARGE LOSS).Quote: JoelDezeRisked remaining $640 on 2 plays for the same game (+ATS on Florida) and (+ML on Florida) on week 6, winning both.
Florida won 24-13.
Net Won this week: $629.55
you left $122.72 on the table
should have bet reversed.
more on money line and less on points as you said Florida wins but refused to bet what you said...
.
But you ain't the one with all the smarts, imo
I bet Florida without any time studying the game
and won (looks like I won more than you did)
I post NO BETS
bad luck all around
Quote: 7crapschase systems works until it does not work (LARGE LOSS).
you left $122.72 on the table
should have bet reversed.
more on money line and less on points as you said Florida wins but refused to bet what you said...
.
But you ain't the one with all the smarts, imo
I bet Florida without any time studying the game
and won (looks like I won more than you did)
I post NO BETS
bad luck all around
As everyone here says to me, if you don't post your stub or your bet before the game, then you didn't wager it.
