Sports betting discussion thread
Quote: AZDuffmanI got Steelers +500 email. Herd the fair moneyline is half that from a former bookie I know. Steelers have kept most games close. Tempted to bet what I would win on taking the spread.
I would bet the max on Steelers +500. I don't think they will win but at +500 it is a no brainer.
Quote: AZDuffmanI got Steelers +500 email. Herd the fair moneyline is half that from a former bookie I know. Steelers have kept most games close. Tempted to bet what I would win on taking the spread.
Just looked. I have it too. Max $25 to win 125
Quote: GWAEJust looked. I have it too. Max $25 to win 125
I wandered in and looked. For those of you in PA and wanting to bet, it appears it will show as +235 and change once you keep it locked in until kickoff. It is it's own tab on the side so you cannot miss it. I did not follow a link so it appears anyone can take it.
The Bengals at +410 are the next best moneyline odds. IMHO they are putting this out because they just got feedback on a survey and this is the kind of sweetner people said they liked best. Rivers has not been shy about trying this kind of promotion.
After sleeping on it I think it is too good a chance not to Lock it In, Rachel.
Total wager:
$25.00
Odds:
+235 +500
Potential payout:
Odds Boost $150.00
Pittsburgh Steelers to win vs Los Angeles Chargers (NFL) 10/13: Yes (Winner)
Total wager:
$25.00
Odds:
+148 +300
Potential payout:
Odds Boost $100.00
Philadelphia Eagles to win vs Minnesota Vikings (NFL) 10/13: Yes (Winner)
Quote: GWAEHere are the bets that we were talking about. Just curious, is there a way to figure an edge on this? I assume the "boost" makes it a players edge without any type of analysis but maybe I am way wrong? I only did this under my account but could also get another $50 down on wife account too. I could throw down $50 as well on the vikings and give me a guaranteed profit of $2.28 or $27.28 and $80 on the chargers for a guaranteed win of $6 or $45. Do I take the guarantees or roll with the original wagers that I made. For the people who do this type of thing seriously what would you/they do? Take the guarantee even though its only $8 but a chance for a $72 win?
Total wager:
$25.00
Odds:
+235 +500
Potential payout:
Odds Boost $150.00
Pittsburgh Steelers to win vs Los Angeles Chargers (NFL) 10/13: Yes (Winner)
Total wager:
$25.00
Odds:
+148 +300
Potential payout:
Odds Boost $100.00
Philadelphia Eagles to win vs Minnesota Vikings (NFL) 10/13: Yes (Winner)
As these are clearly not 'life changing' money amounts, whatever bet you use to hedge the +EV bets the casino is giving you will be -EV. So by hedging your bets you will be decreasing the value of the casino offer.
I have a better idea..... use the Pittsburgh bet for yourself and the Eagles bet for the WoV get together bets you've been making!
Quote: SOOPOOAs these are clearly not 'life changing' money amounts, whatever bet you use to hedge the +EV bets the casino is giving you will be -EV. So by hedging your bets you will be decreasing the value of the casino offer.
I have a better idea..... use the Pittsburgh bet for yourself and the Eagles bet for the WoV get together bets you've been making!
yes you are right they are not life changing. I know the commandments are to no hedge but is it different when you are hedging a +ev event? In this case I might be hedging a +100 HE to +20 for a guarantee so even though I am using a negative bet to hedge the total is still going to be +ev but with a guarantee. Is that against the commandments?
I can't use these with that bets game because these are ML wagers and we do spread bets.
Quote: GWAEyes you are right they are not life changing. I know the commandments are to no hedge but is it different when you are hedging a +ev event? In this case I might be hedging a +100 HE to +20 for a guarantee so even though I am using a negative bet to hedge the total is still going to be +ev but with a guarantee. Is that against the commandments?
It is 100% against the Wiz's commandments.
You already have a defined amount of +EV from the offer.
Any hedge is it's own bet, with it's own EV. Both your hedging options are by definition -EV.
Quote: GWAEHere are the bets that we were talking about. Just curious, is there a way to figure an edge on this? I assume the "boost" makes it a players edge without any type of analysis but maybe I am way wrong? I only did this under my account but could also get another $50 down on wife account too. I could throw down $50 as well on the vikings and give me a guaranteed profit of $2.28 or $27.28 and $80 on the chargers for a guaranteed win of $6 or $45. Do I take the guarantees or roll with the original wagers that I made. For the people who do this type of thing seriously what would you/they do? Take the guarantee even though its only $8 but a chance for a $72 win?
Total wager:
$25.00
Odds:
+235 +500
Potential payout:
Odds Boost $150.00
Pittsburgh Steelers to win vs Los Angeles Chargers (NFL) 10/13: Yes (Winner)
I ran this yesterday. The best thing was take the $25 max on the Steelers online. Then get in your car and lay $72 (rounded) against them across the sports book counter. Steelers win you get $50. They lose it is a push to you. Bump the $72 up and you win either way, best bet making a max of $125 as that is what you get if the Steelers win.
If I lived in the apartments near PNC park it would be worth it to walk to the book on a nice day like this. It is not worth the time or gas to max it out at this point in my life.
Quote: SOOPOOIt is 100% against the Wiz's commandments.
You already have a defined amount of +EV from the offer.
Any hedge is it's own bet, with it's own EV. Both your hedging options are by definition -EV.
Wiz was trained in math for math sake. Some of us here came up in business finance.
If you worked on Wall Street you would lock this in for the max guaranteed return.
The Eagles bet is not as good, but I think I will take a couple bucks on it if just to encourage more promotions in the future.
Quote: AZDuffmanI ran this yesterday. The best thing was take the $25 max on the Steelers online. Then get in your car and lay $72 (rounded) against them across the sports book counter. Steelers win you get $50. They lose it is a push to you. Bump the $72 up and you win either way, best bet making a max of $125 as that is what you get if the Steelers win.
If I lived in the apartments near PNC park it would be worth it to walk to the book on a nice day like this. It is not worth the time or gas to max it out at this point in my life.
why you gotta even leave the house? I ended up doing the same but used sugarhouse online instead of rivers
Quote: GWAEwhy you gotta even leave the house? I ended up doing the same but used sugarhouse online instead of rivers
To avoid being that middle-aged shut in guy?
Also I got caught trying to do both surveys and they only paid one, so they are watching some things. Don't want to upset the marketing department.
EDIT: "Caught" may be the wrong word, they sent both emails and did not in them say only 1 bonus.
Quote: AZDuffmanTo avoid being that middle-aged shut in guy?
Also I got caught trying to do both surveys and they only paid one, so they are watching some things. Don't want to upset the marketing department.
EDIT: "Caught" may be the wrong word, they sent both emails and did not in them say only 1 bonus.
I did notice today that they added a line under their welcome bonus that says only valid 1 time between both sites. Got both if then a few months ago
Quote: GWAEI did notice today that they added a line under their welcome bonus that says only valid 1 time between both sites. Got both if then a few months ago
Thanks for that, was going to run it for my mother but no use now. How it lasted so long we may never know.
Quote: AZDuffmanWiz was trained in math for math sake. Some of us here came up in business finance.
If you worked on Wall Street you would lock this in for the max guaranteed return.
The Eagles bet is not as good, but I think I will take a couple bucks on it if just to encourage more promotions in the future.
I don't think so.
If you could bet unlimited amounts, then yes, you'd do something like this for as much money as you had.
For $25 there is no reason to refund the house some of the ev they gave you. I'd be shocked to learn that some Wall Street quant thought any differently.
Quote: GWAEwhy you gotta even leave the house? I ended up doing the same but used sugarhouse online instead of rivers
Why are the Steelers wearing the whites at home?
Quote: AZDuffmanWhy are the Steelers wearing the whites at home?
damn looks like I wasted $80 on the hedge
Quote: GWAEdamn looks like I wasted $80 on the hedge
Put options are still a good thing. Look at the bright side. There will now be value in betting against them. They should handle the Dolphins then the fans will really lay on the money giving better lines.
Quote: GWAEdamn looks like I wasted $80 on the hedge
I believe Mike would want you to do like 10 pushups as a punishment.
Quote: AZDuffmanWhy are the Steelers wearing the whites at home?
The game was in California.
It was a joke as the stadium was 3/4 Steelers fans and 1/4 (Max) Chargers fans.Quote: DRichThe game was in California.
I was just a little bit confused, the town is that way. Wondered why this didnt make sense, the Bills have a bye this week.Quote: unJonYou’re responding to a post from a prior week. Bills on bye. Steelers starting Hodges. Mason is out.
Miami getting 16.5 at Buffalo. Anyone else smell some value here? Miami is probably good for 10-13 points. So the Bills must get 27 to cover. The Bills are getting 18 ppg. Dolphins are allowing 36, Buffalo is getting 18. Getting 18 per game, and against some real slugs. What has to be asked is are the Bills a "phony" team at this point, getting a good spread against a team tanking the season? Will a divisional opponent keep it close?
Leaning to lock it in on Miami.
Thursday has Denver as a 3.5 point home dog. Denver has not been blown out yet this year, and KC has just one blowout win, weakening as of late. KC is going to be on the warpath after losing 2 straight, but they are on a short week to Denver, a notorious place to have to play.
My thought is take the home dog and the points, this is another divisional one that should be close late and as such take those points as the dog tries to score late.
Quote: AZDuffmanSo, taking a look at next week....
Miami getting 16.5 at Buffalo. Anyone else smell some value here? Miami is probably good for 10-13 points. So the Bills must get 27 to cover. The Bills are getting 18 ppg. Dolphins are allowing 36, Buffalo is getting 18. Getting 18 per game, and against some real slugs. What has to be asked is are the Bills a "phony" team at this point, getting a good spread against a team tanking the season? Will a divisional opponent keep it close?
Leaning to lock it in on Miami.
Thursday has Denver as a 3.5 point home dog. Denver has not been blown out yet this year, and KC has just one blowout win, weakening as of late. KC is going to be on the warpath after losing 2 straight, but they are on a short week to Denver, a notorious place to have to play.
My thought is take the home dog and the points, this is another divisional one that should be close late and as such take those points as the dog tries to score late.
Funny you posted this! I was just going to announce that at 16.5 I'm making the Dolphins my confidence pick. If I bet real money I'd bet on the Fish. The Bills are a hair away from being 1-4. And that is just giving the opponents they faced better FG kickers. Beat Jets by 1 and kicker missed a few and was cut immediately after. Beat Bengals by 7 and kicker missed 4! Can't remember Titans details but something similar. Only game they were better than opponent was Giants. To me, Dolphins management is tanking but players and coach aren't. They played hard yesterday losing by 1. So in the NFL with the pointy ball, I don't see the Bills beating Miami by more than 16 points a majority of the time. I predicted an 11 point spread. It is rare I'm off by that much.
I think Fish +16.5 is +EV.
Quote: SOOPOOFunny you posted this! I was just going to announce that at 16.5 I'm making the Dolphins my confidence pick. If I bet real money I'd bet on the Fish. The Bills are a hair away from being 1-4. And that is just giving the opponents they faced better FG kickers. Beat Jets by 1 and kicker missed a few and was cut immediately after. Beat Bengals by 7 and kicker missed 4! Can't remember Titans details but something similar. Only game they were better than opponent was Giants. To me, Dolphins management is tanking but players and coach aren't. They played hard yesterday losing by 1. So in the NFL with the pointy ball, I don't see the Bills beating Miami by more than 16 points a majority of the time. I predicted an 11 point spread. It is rare I'm off by that much.
I think Fish +16.5 is +EV.
Just in case there is anyone here who likes an edge, split this bet to a parlay for the Bills to win but not to cover, way better payout.
Quote: SOOPOOFunny you posted this! I was just going to announce that at 16.5 I'm making the Dolphins my confidence pick. If I bet real money I'd bet on the Fish. The Bills are a hair away from being 1-4. And that is just giving the opponents they faced better FG kickers. Beat Jets by 1 and kicker missed a few and was cut immediately after. Beat Bengals by 7 and kicker missed 4! Can't remember Titans details but something similar. Only game they were better than opponent was Giants. To me, Dolphins management is tanking but players and coach aren't. They played hard yesterday losing by 1. So in the NFL with the pointy ball, I don't see the Bills beating Miami by more than 16 points a majority of the time. I predicted an 11 point spread. It is rare I'm off by that much.
I think Fish +16.5 is +EV.
I don'tknow,the rumor is they will start Rosen again even though it was Fitzpatrick that scored their points.
Quote: DRichI don'tknow,the rumor is they will start Rosen again even though it was Fitzpatrick that scored their points.
They are starting Rosen. 4 out of the 5 Bills games have been 1 score games. Their offense is anything but dynamic. Spread is 17 now. I do realize my expert analysis on NFL games against the spread probably approaches 48%, but I'm standing by my pick of the Dolphins +17 as best bet of the year.
Quote: SOOPOOThey are starting Rosen. 4 out of the 5 Bills games have been 1 score games. Their offense is anything but dynamic. Spread is 17 now. I do realize my expert analysis on NFL games against the spread probably approaches 48%, but I'm standing by my pick of the Dolphins +17 as best bet of the year.
Still 16.5 here so maybe I wait for the bookmakers to get out of bed and down to the casino. That is a big key number there.
83% of the time in NFL bets, THE POINT SPREAD DOES NOT MATTER!
IOW, the dog upsets or the chalk covers. Or IOOW, if you just pick the winner you win 83% of the time.
GambleOn is not a garage podcast, they are pretty reliable.
I find this interesting and slightly changes my thought process.
DISCUSS
Quote: AZDuffman
GambleOn is not a garage podcast, they are pretty reliable.
I've never heard of it. They might be honest, but this sort of thing is basically meaningless. It's akin to dice players talking about whether you should have your bets turned on or off on the come out.
Are you supposed to always bet dogs on the moneyline or something? Does that really make sense if you think it through for a minute?
Most of these people, even if they have good intentions, are basically just spouting meaningless content. That is fascinating to me in itself. You walk into a sportsbook and all these guys are standing around making observations that have some superficial connection to reality, but no substance. I wonder how much of life in general is like that.
Anyway, nobody can beat sports betting by just kind of casually making passing observations, except in isolated cases where the market goes wacko (Mayweather/McGreggor) or perhaps if you happen to have a little bit of knowledge or info that is being overlooked.
An example of that i heard once. A guy's friend is a trainer for the Blackhawks and he tells him they all got destroyed on their day off in their first visit to Vegas. This was early on, before everyone wised up to the "Vegas Flu."
Sometimes you can do this with stuff like TV show bets. Someone who both deeply understands Jeopardy! and has sports betting acumen might be able to see glaring flaws in Jeopardy lines without much work. But, if betting on Jeopardy became common and it was a billion dollar market, that would come to an end after some time.
Quote: AZDuffmanHere's an interesting fact I heard on GambleOn.
83% of the time in NFL bets, THE POINT SPREAD DOES NOT MATTER!
IOW, the dog upsets or the chalk covers. Or IOOW, if you just pick the winner you win 83% of the time.
GambleOn is not a garage podcast, they are pretty reliable.
I find this interesting and slightly changes my thought process.
DISCUSS
No surprise at all. For all the low spread games (less than 3 points) the winner probably covers 90 +% of the time. ANY time you bet an underdog and it wins you of course cover.
Quote: billryanWhat percent of underdogs actually win? Is it over 25%?
Someone will easily find it out. I'll guess 31% in the NFL regular season.
Quote: SOOPOOSomeone will easily find it out. I'll guess 31% in the NFL regular season.Quote: billryanWhat percent of underdogs actually win? Is it over 25%?
The figure AZD gave, plus just a little intuition and algebra gives us the answer.
The underdog covers the spread 50% of the time. The underdog covers the spread, but doesn't win 17% of the time (100% - 87%). That means they cover and win ~33% (after rounding and ignoring ties).
Quote: Rigondeaux
Are you supposed to always bet dogs on the moneyline or something? Does that really make sense if you think it through for a minute?
Always? Of course not. Miami this year is a perfect example. Pats covered, but 10+ points was good value. OTOH, spreads are usually 3-8 points or so.
So if you take the number of 83% at face value then you should indeed just take the moneyline 4/5 of the time if you are taking the dog since 83% of the time you either lost the bet because they got covered or wasted your money because they upset outright.
Yes, it makes sense to at least look at the number.
Quote: TomGThe figure AZD gave, plus just a little intuition and algebra gives us the answer.
The underdog covers the spread 50% of the time. The underdog covers the spread, but doesn't win 17% of the time (100% - 87%). That means they cover and win ~33% (after rounding and ignoring ties).
How do you determine the underdog covers 50% of the time?
Quote: AZDuffmanAlways? Of course not. Miami this year is a perfect example. Pats covered, but 10+ points was good value. OTOH, spreads are usually 3-8 points or so.
So if you take the number of 83% at face value then you should indeed just take the moneyline 4/5 of the time if you are taking the dog since 83% of the time you either lost the bet because they got covered or wasted your money because they upset outright.
Yes, it makes sense to at least look at the number.
Interesting. It would be possible to look at that data and come to the opposite conclusion. The underdog loses, but the bet wins 17% of the time. That means any underdog should only need to be a roughly 36-38% chance to win outright for them to be a good bet with the points. I am sure I could pick a few NFL underdogs every week to win outright and get at least 36% of them right. Add the 17% chance that they cover, but don't win and it's a profitable year betting NFL underdogs.
( that's starting to sound very close to my new favorite youtube video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFoC3TR5rzI )
This needs to be seen.
Quote: billryanHow do you determine the underdog covers 50% of the time?
He is assuming an efficient market, where the point spread is made correctly so each team, including the pointspread, has an equal chance. Over the course of NFL history, I'm sure it's somewhere between 49 and 51. For the purpose of this exercise, his logic works.
Notice he said approximate when he gave his final answer.
Quote: TomGInteresting. It would be possible to look at that data and come to the opposite conclusion. The underdog loses, but the bet wins 17% of the time. That means any underdog should only need to be a roughly 36-38% chance to win outright for them to be a good bet with the points. I am sure I could pick a few NFL underdogs every week to win outright and get at least 36% of them right. Add the 17% chance that they cover, but don't win and it's a profitable year betting NFL underdogs.
The 17% is indeed exactly what they are saying. We could compare it to baseball and the run line. It only matters if the favorite wins by just one run (RL on the dog is a bad idea). So if you just pic favorites to win you get the better payout.
To me the 83/17 thing is a tool to be used with the rest of your tools. I think about NE this year. Only Buffalo stands out where the points really mattered. Baltimore was an outright loss, I for one had Baltimore that game. IIRC I took the moneyline but forget for sure. Rest of the time they covered easy.
Like anything, take it for what you like. It just says to me that unless you have 6+ points in spread or so just worry about picking the winner.
I also LOVED Bears -5.5. But that one I still like....
Quote: AZDuffmanThe 17% is indeed exactly what they are saying. We could compare it to baseball and the run line. It only matters if the favorite wins by just one run (RL on the dog is a bad idea). So if you just pic favorites to win you get the better payout.
To me the 83/17 thing is a tool to be used with the rest of your tools. I think about NE this year. Only Buffalo stands out where the points really mattered. Baltimore was an outright loss, I for one had Baltimore that game. IIRC I took the moneyline but forget for sure. Rest of the time they covered easy.
Like anything, take it for what you like. It just says to me that unless you have 6+ points in spread or so just worry about picking the winner.
I could be wrong, but I think you're just barking up the wrong tree.
I'd put far more stock into what TomG is saying than some podcaster.
Don't you live in Penn? If it's anything like nj, they are giving away money. not just with sign up bonuses, but with all kinds of crazy promos on a daily basis.
Bird in hand > 2 in bush.
I can't spell it all out, but one thing I will say is be cautious with the boost bets. Sometimes they are good, but sometimes I think they are being less than truthful about the original odds. "Tom Brady elected president. Boosted from +120 to +200!!"
Quote: RigondeauxI could be wrong, but I think you're just barking up the wrong tree.
I'd put far more stock into what TomG is saying than some podcaster.
Put stock in whomever you want. The stat simply says that 17% of the time the chalk wins but does not cover. To me that is a powerful stat.
It looks to me like Josh Allen has possibly turned a corner. If he can be just kind of competent and occasionally make big plays with his legs and arms, that's a massive improvement over what he was last year and early this year
That defense looks fantastic every time I see them. I often hear how great the Dallas O line is. The Bills made them look like little girls.
They are 9-3. They easily could have beaten the Patriots a couple months ago, with Allen not looking so good.
Maybe they just have a bad brand in the eyes of bettors still. Everyone just thinks, yeah, but it's the bills.
Not a serious bet as I don't really fancy myself a handicapper. But Futures are fun. I'm a bears fan, so I need someone to root for.
Unless Patriots falter, they will be the #5 seed. That means 3 consecutive road games at Houston/Indy, then Ravens, then Patriots, then beat 49ers/Saints/Packers in SB!
I think the money line odds on those games will be long, and parlaying the Bills might do better than 50-1!
Quote: RigondeauxI saw buffalo still at 50-1 to win the SB after the game so I ploppies a few dollars on it.
I think you probably had a large edge on that bet
I've seen the same kind of thing with racing - the horse is at 20/1 and I think he should be more like 12/1
even though there is an edge to be had I don't make the bet - it's still so very likely to lose
the ways statistics are in my example you could easily lose 50 in a row before hitting one like it even though you have an edge
I guess a true pro would make every bet he sees like that but for me the frustration factor is too great - feels like I'm sending my money into a black hole
if it's video poker where you can make hundreds of bets in an hour it's very different - that makes sense to me
Quote: SOOPOOThe reason the Bills are 50-1 is more about the path they will need to take....
Unless Patriots falter, they will be the #5 seed. That means 3 consecutive road games at Houston/Indy, then Ravens, then Patriots, then beat 49ers/Saints/Packers in SB!
I think the money line odds on those games will be long, and parlaying the Bills might do better than 50-1!
The problem with doing it that way is, if one of those top teams gets knocked off in the playoffs and buffalo advances to to the afc title game against a lesser opponent , you’re no longer getting anywhere near the 50-1
