Sports betting discussion thread
PA just got online sports betting so I am trying to learn as much as I can about it.
One bonus that intrigues me is a futures bet that is available right now. If you make a $2000 future bet on Superbowl champ, every game your team wins in the regular season you earn a $200 bonus bet. Bonus bet has a 1x play through and you can cash out the bonus plus winnings. To me this seems like a pretty strong promotion but since I am very green on this I might be way off. Bet a team like the chiefs at +800 and you are more than likely going to get 12-13 $200 free bets. A disastrous season and you still get 8 or 9 bets.
https://nj.betamerica.com/nfl-betting-offers/
But IF you were sure you would be paid.... Picking a good team that is expected to win 10 games .... EV of around $1900 with 1x play through..... -EV probably $200 on your futures bet. So my crude estimate is +EV $1700, IF I understand the T's and C's.....
If I just drive to Pa, around a little over an hour, can I do this?
Quote: SOOPOOSorry.... But..... we can terminate this promotion for ANY reason..... whenever we want.... Means if they find out they are losing too much money...... you are out of luck!
But IF you were sure you would be paid.... Picking a good team that is expected to win 10 games .... EV of around $1900 with 1x play through..... -EV probably $200 on your futures bet. So my crude estimate is +EV $1700, IF I understand the T's and C's.....
If I just drive to Pa, around a little over an hour, can I do this?
yes you can. you do not have to be a resident of PA, just in PA.
Quote: SOOPOOSorry.... But..... we can terminate this promotion for ANY reason..... whenever we want.... Means if they find out they are losing too much money...... you are out of luck!
But IF you were sure you would be paid.... Picking a good team that is expected to win 10 games .... EV of around $1900 with 1x play through..... -EV probably $200 on your futures bet. So my crude estimate is +EV $1700, IF I understand the T's and C's.....
If I just drive to Pa, around a little over an hour, can I do this?
forgot to add, they are part of presque isle casino
General terms and conditions apply.
BetAmerica reserves the right to cancel, terminate, modify or suspend this/any promotion at any time and for any reason, including technical reasons such as but not limited to computer viruses, bugs, tampering or technical failure.
BetAmerica reserves all rights to withdraw or change this promotion at any time without notice.
If they cancel the promo I wonder if they would allow you out of the wager since it was part of the promo. What are the odds that they would actually cancel it? Guess that depends on how bad they are losing.
I would just pick whichever team has the highest wins total
Quote: GWAEWhelp figured I would just make a thread for sports betting since I have a trillion questions.
PA just got online sports betting so I am trying to learn as much as I can about it.
Thanks for starting, was thinking about doing the same.
My discussion question is about the Run Line. So far best I can see is never use it on an underdog, IOW, lay but not take the points. And best to only use it to turn a favorite to a dog, IOW, never take > +101.
Seems about 1/3 of MLB games end in a 1 run difference, meaning 1 in 6 times you will get bit by winning but not covering.
Anyone else have thoughts?
Quote: RigondeauxWithout examining or thinking much about it, that seems very good.
I would just pick whichever team has the highest wins total
that is what I was thinking, something like the patriots whom are only +600 but you will probably end up with 14 free bets. Almost like free rolling the future bet for 12k
Quote: GWAEthat is what I was thinking, something like the patriots whom are only +600 but you will probably end up with 14 free bets. Almost like free rolling the future bet for 12k
Minimum odds requirement -150? I can read that a few ways. Does that mean you cannot take the heavy favorite? Or does that mean you have to take the favorite? -180 is less than -150 so would lock out heavy favorites, OTOH, if they do not want you taking favorites does it mean a +120 bet is OK?
Quote: AZDuffmanMinimum odds requirement -150? I can read that a few ways. Does that mean you cannot take the heavy favorite? Or does that mean you have to take the favorite? -180 is less than -150 so would lock out heavy favorites, OTOH, if they do not want you taking favorites does it mean a +120 bet is OK?
yes took me a bit to understand what they wanted. At first I was like oh crap cant do -108, but it is the other way. You can not do anything below -150 (or -200 for Rivers) So no heavy favorite -500. They have no problem with big underdog of +800
Quote: GWAEyes took me a bit to understand what they wanted. At first I was like oh crap cant do -108, but it is the other way. You can not do anything below -150 (or -200 for Rivers) So no heavy favorite -500. They have no problem with big underdog of +800
Somebody there needs to take a tech/copywrightinng class, but thanks.
What do you mean "for Rivers?" Do they have a promo like this?
I read this as a pretty good deal but am tapped at the moment. Maybe bitcoin pops in the next month. Would like to do it for $1K.
Quote: AZDuffmanThanks for starting, was thinking about doing the same.
My discussion question is about the Run Line. So far best I can see is never use it on an underdog, IOW, lay but not take the points. And best to only use it to turn a favorite to a dog, IOW, never take > +101.
Seems about 1/3 of MLB games end in a 1 run difference, meaning 1 in 6 times you will get bit by winning but not covering.
Anyone else have thoughts?
The considerations vary depending on whether the home or away team is the underdog. Home teams win by 1 run more often than visiting teams for obvious reasons.
Quote: unJonThe considerations vary depending on whether the home or away team is the underdog. Home teams win by 1 run more often than visiting teams for obvious reasons.
An important point. GambleOn gave a few of the best runline teams. In the off-season I hope to get stats for 3-5 years and get my own stats. Only making mini-bets this year to test things out. Funny but it seems betting baseball despite the most stats has among the least info out there.
Also worth noting of those bonus bets work like promo chips/match play where it’s only worth around half face value or are they face value.
Note #1: By comparing these SB odds to Pinnacle or Heritage or, say, Westgate in LV, one can keep tabs on the "fairness" of the SB odds offered.
Now, as mentioned above, the "bonus bet" works like a promo chip, with marginally less than half of the expected value. If you take a short-priced SB contender, say Pats or Chiefs, you figure to win 10 games or thereabouts. The 10 games means $1000 in "bonus bets," not cash. Those "bonus bets" optimistically then translate into roughly $500 in cash.
Next, you must "roll it over" 1X. This means committing that $500 into wagers. So you take a small hit on that long term. The five day time limit on "bonus bet" use precludes you stockpiling "bonus bets" and taking both sides of the same game. They are, therefore, daring you to wager with the $500. One assumes a small loss on the $500.
Okay, what comes next? If everyone thinks alike, as generally happens with promos like this, you get a bunch of wagers on the short-priced faves and public teams. This in and of itself isn't terrible if you happen to really like one particular team, but because you have a half dozen public squads garnering the bulk of the money, if you do not have a strong opinion about one team, then you've fallen into the commonly touted trap of NFL futures featuring favorites -- namely that you have half a dozen teams ranging from +600 to +1200. Crunch the numbers and those teams usually add up to about 90%, meaning that you are getting inappropriately lousy odds unless you think the other 26 teams have absolutely no shot, which is ludicrous.
In conclusion, if you really like a particular public team, you may as well use the promotion. If you don't, the money is probably better spent on some other promotion, probably offshore (and no, no offshore is tipping me for this five-minute riff).
Any questions?
Quote: mcallister3200That futures promo gwae posted looks like a New Jersey promo not PA unless I’m missing something. Pointsbet in NJ has a 1k loss rebate till end of month but I’m assuming if you’re a new player they’ll give you the new player promo instead, and they have a reputation for giving future restrictions to promo abusers.
Also worth noting of those bonus bets work like promo chips/match play where it’s only worth around half face value or are they face value.
Sorry should have mentioned. This casino will be part of presque isle in PA on Aug 8th.
Do the bonus bets work like that. It looks like it reads that you get paid for the bonus plus winnings but maybe I read it wrong
Quote: GWAESorry should have mentioned. This casino will be part of presque isle in PA on Aug 8th.
Do the bonus bets work like that. It looks like it reads that you get paid for the bonus plus winnings but maybe I read it wrong
If you keep the bonus plus the winnings it seems super-powerful. Just pick a team that gets regular season wins even if they dud in the playoffs.
If you keep only the winnings then not so much, you are just getting better odds on your SB prop.
Quote: AZDuffmanIf you keep the bonus plus the winnings it seems super-powerful. Just pick a team that gets regular season wins even if they dud in the playoffs.
If you keep only the winnings then not so much, you are just getting better odds on your SB prop.
this leads me to believe that you get to keep the bonus amount plus winnings but I may be interpreting it incorrectly.
There is a wagering requirement before players are permitted to withdraw any bonus funds and bonus winnings from their account.
This wagering requirement will be 1X the amount of the bonus before a withdrawal of the funds can be initialed. IE - If a player receives $20 in bonus funds, they must then place wagers to the value of $20 ($20 x 1) before being able to withdraw any bonus funds and/or any bonus winnings.
Quote: redietz
Note #1: By comparing these SB odds to Pinnacle or Heritage or, say, Westgate in LV, one can keep tabs on the "fairness" of the SB odds offered.
Now, as mentioned above, the "bonus bet" works like a promo chip, with marginally less than half of the expected value. If you take a short-priced SB contender, say Pats or Chiefs, you figure to win 10 games or thereabouts. The 10 games means $1000 in "bonus bets," not cash. Those "bonus bets" optimistically then translate into roughly $500 in cash.
I am not so sure of that. See my post above. The wording of the TC mention withdrawing bonus and winnings. Most of the NJ bonuses that I have been researching are very clear that the bonus bet is not cashable, only the winnings.
Quote: redietzNext, you must "roll it over" 1X. This means committing that $500 into wagers. So you take a small hit on that long term. The five day time limit on "bonus bet" use precludes you stockpiling "bonus bets" and taking both sides of the same game. They are, therefore, daring you to wager with the $500. One assumes a small loss on the $500.
If we assume the above where the bonus part is cashable this is my thought. Probably an absolute terrible one.
Take $100 free on one side as close to -110 as possible. Bet $100 cash at my local on the opposite side at -110. Once the bet wins I will cash out $190.91. If we are assuming 10 wins then I am going to bring back $909.10 so my 1k wager now only costs $91.90.
If I am taking a team like the chiefs at +800. I am getting +9900 on my chiefs bet.
So lets look at it as if the bonus part is not returned, which again I kind of think it is.
Just to keep it similar with guaranteed payouts, I bet $48 at local and $100 on the site. return $43 each week for $430 over 10 games.
Now I am getting +1480 , not quite as good as 9900 but still much better
Now granted we are talking 10 games which would be a bad season for them this year. I think that would be a bad season. And of course a bad season could happen and they win 7.
Quote: AZDuffmanSomebody there needs to take a tech/copywrightinng class, but thanks.
What do you mean "for Rivers?" Do they have a promo like this?
I read this as a pretty good deal but am tapped at the moment. Maybe bitcoin pops in the next month. Would like to do it for $1K.
No I meant their match bonus. It had to be -200 or better.
you don't fail to cover one out of 6 times if you lay the runs on the money line fave - it's more than that because the fave will win more often
baseball betting is not very popular - so most sites give you a deal on the house edge on the traditional money line bet
but not on the run line bet
today at betonline. ag - money line - Mets -210/Padres +194 - house edge - 1.73%
run line - Mets -105/ Padres -115 - house edge - 4.5%
if the line on the Mets game is a fair line in 9 games the Mets on average will win 6 and lose 3
in about 2 of the 6 games they win they will fail to cover
that means if you lay them you will average about winning 4 bets and losing 5 at -105
is this situation it looks like a terrible bet not considering what handicapping might reveal
a great deal of wise handicapping must happen for the run line bet to be a good one - it's not one you can expect better results from betting without lots of good handicapping
basically, the bet is a tease for those who think they got a really good deal by turning a money line fave into a run line dog
Quote: TomGAbout 10 years ago, betting big underdogs at +1.5 in Las Vegas was one of the easiest ways to find good bets. So many people just want to bet heavy favorites without laying juice. Now the Vegas sportsbooks generally follow the online markets much closer. The real reason to not bet the run lines in baseball is because they are generally a 4.5% house edge compared to ~2.5% on baseball money lines. The 2.5s are usually a good place to find value in Las Vegas, because the sportsbooks here generally require action to move lines and those props are much smaller markets.
How are you calculating house edge here? Are you just figuring the spread in juice (10 cent, 20 cent, etc?) or something else.
Quote: AZDuffmanHow are you calculating house edge here? Are you just figuring the spread in juice (10 cent, 20 cent, etc?) or something else.
For these bets it is simply the sportsbook’s hold. Parlays and multi-way bets it would be different
Quote: TomGFor these bets it is simply the sportsbook’s hold. Parlays and multi-way bets it would be different
Thanks. Just so I get this, that just means their oddsmakers do better on it than they do on the moneyline?
Mostly new to betting MLB here, trying to learn how to handicap it better.
Despite a marked improvement, however, I do not think the Browns should be an outright favorite to win the AFC North, and I give my reasons here:
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/i-was-wrong-about-the-browns/
Quote: Mission146The first thing that we should get out of the way is that my Cleveland Browns article last year was exactly WRONG!!!
Despite a marked improvement, however, I do not think the Browns should be an outright favorite to win the AFC North, and I give my reasons here:
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/i-was-wrong-about-the-browns/
The Browns had 2001 ties last year? I need to hook ESPN back up!
Quote: AZDuffmanThe Browns had 2001 ties last year? I need to hook ESPN back up!
Ha! I’ll have to see if I can edit that. It must have confused my record formatting for date formatting.
EDIT: Fixed, thanks! I think whatever BralasLT uses to transfer what I send him to the page used to insert articles here assumed that I was trying to put in dates and converted it accordingly. My original has what is now in the article.
Wondering if any of our European members notice this. Or anyone else for that matter.
To me it is simple. Half the sports bettors are just analytical types and sports books are where you can test that. Many would like to be stock analysts but it is hard to get that job without the right bloodlines and/or gone to the right school, of which there are maybe 20 in the nation. To do stocks on your own takes way more money, so start analyzing sports, which you may be watching anyhow.
Discuss.
“Harvard Medical School analysed the betting histories of over 40,000 of customers playing with a leading online sports bookmaker.
Placing nearly 8 million bets and wagering over €60 million.
Only 245 players showed profits of over €1,000.”
245 of 40,000.
Quote: mcallister3200Then again what in the sam hell is a € is it a bitcoin? I only understand freedom units.
€ is a Euro.
And only 39755 of those people are allowed to make Sports bets there anymore.Quote: SM777https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Strategy/what-is-survivorship-bias/3DY2T5GERNE7GJYH?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=article-link&utm_campaign=betting-strategy
“Harvard Medical School analysed the betting histories of over 40,000 of customers playing with a leading online sports bookmaker.
Placing nearly 8 million bets and wagering over €60 million.
Only 245 players showed profits of over €1,000.”
245 of 40,000.
Quote: SM777https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Strategy/what-is-survivorship-bias/3DY2T5GERNE7GJYH?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=article-link&utm_campaign=betting-strategy
“Harvard Medical School analysed the betting histories of over 40,000 of customers playing with a leading online sports bookmaker.
Placing nearly 8 million bets and wagering over €60 million.
Only 245 players showed profits of over €1,000.”
245 of 40,000.
Wellll.... average total bet per bettor.... $1500..... average bet size less than $8...... And we are supposed to be surprised that only 245 are up over $1000?
Quote: AxelWolfAnd only 39755 of those people are allowed to make Sports bets there anymore.
Did you use a calculator?
Quote: lilredrooster13% of bettors winning is much higher than I would have guessed and it is reason for optimism if a person is new to the game
Yeah that doesn’t really sound much different than poker. Definitely a higher percentage than table games or machines.
Quote: SM777https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Strategy/what-is-survivorship-bias/3DY2T5GERNE7GJYH?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=article-link&utm_campaign=betting-strategy
“Harvard Medical School analysed the betting histories of over 40,000 of customers playing with a leading online sports bookmaker.
Placing nearly 8 million bets and wagering over €60 million.
Only 245 players showed profits of over €1,000.”
245 of 40,000.
Which is why Rosenthal opened a book inside the Dust.
You are obviously jealous that I know how to use one.Quote: GWAEDid you use a calculator?
Yeah but can you reverse Polish notation?Quote: AxelWolfYou are obviously jealous that I know how to use one.
Quote: unJonYeah but can you reverse Polish notation?
Only on my slide rule.
at the thrift shop. I had no idea if they were worth anything, but I suspected it had more value than the $1.99 price tag and I thought it looked neat.
I sent a pic of it to The Wizard. He nerded out and wanted to buy it. I just gave it to him.
published by Pinnacle - from their website - they have good reason to report such a high % of winners - trying to attract new players and increase betting of players already snagged by them
I googled the issue and found reports of several academic studies of gamblers - none claimed 13% were winners. I could be wrong - I'll believe it when I see it - I won't believe a report from Pinnacle themselves
this is what I googled and I read several of the links:
https://www.google.com/search?q=harvard+medical+school+study+of+sports+betting&oq=har&aqs=chrome.0.69i59j69i57j69i61j0l3.2239j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
Quote: lilredroosterI believe there's a pretty good chance the article is bogus
published by Pinnacle - from their website - they have good reason to report such a high % of winners - trying to attract new players and increase betting of players already snagged by them
I googled the issue and found reports of several academic studies of gamblers - none claimed 13% were winners. I could be wrong - I'll believe it when I see it - I won't believe a report from Pinnacle themselves
this is what I googled and I read several of the links:
https://www.google.com/search?q=harvard+medical+school+study+of+sports+betting&oq=har&aqs=chrome.0.69i59j69i57j69i61j0l3.2239j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
Pinnacle has always intertwined transparency and an educated customer base into their business models. Their articles (and podcasts) are usually spot on (and dry and boring). The study they reference is linked in their article: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10899-007-9067-3 . Based on the numbers, if each player made the same number of bets (eight million bets made by +40,000 accounts is less than 200 bets each), we would expect 26% to finish with a profit betting -110 lines. Given an 18% hold and so few winners, they were obviously betting long shots and high juice
Quote: SM777https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Strategy/what-is-survivorship-bias/3DY2T5GERNE7GJYH?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=article-link&utm_campaign=betting-strategy
“Harvard Medical School analysed the betting histories of over 40,000 of customers playing with a leading online sports bookmaker.
Placing nearly 8 million bets and wagering over €60 million.
Only 245 players showed profits of over €1,000.”
245 of 40,000.
"The median betting behavior of the 24,794 live-action bettors was to place 2.8 wagers of €4 every fourth day"
For more than half of them it's the equivalent of buying into a blackjack table for $20 once a week. Pretty hard to make a $1,000 profit in a couple months like that.
Quote: AZDuffmanA new thing I heard on sprotsbetting on GambleOn. They said that people in Europe are somewhat amazed at how much analysis Americans put into sports betting. AFIK it was neither positive nor negative feelings. Just more of something those crazy Yanks do.
Wondering if any of our European members notice this. Or anyone else for that matter.
To me it is simple. Half the sports bettors are just analytical types and sports books are where you can test that. Many would like to be stock analysts but it is hard to get that job without the right bloodlines and/or gone to the right school, of which there are maybe 20 in the nation. To do stocks on your own takes way more money, so start analyzing sports, which you may be watching anyhow.
Discuss.
Major difference is that a monkey throwing darts at the stock market has historically almost doubled their money every 10 years. Doing the same things with sports means losing 4.5% of all money bet until it's at zero. The nine figure career paths in finance are completely about connections. But now that online brokers have taken over, it's possible to bet small in the stock market, the low commission makes the barrier for entry so low that anyone can get it. But the other major difference is that a sports bet can be resolved in a couple of hours, so total volume can be huge even for a small player. For a lot of people picking stocks, it takes a couple decades to resolve those bets.
As a group, American betters do love to analyze every imaginable statistic and angle, injuries, weather, streaks, trends, point differentials, yards per play, batting average on balls in play. Almost always, it's either already built into the odds or just noise. But most know it's just a hobby. And for most losing a few dollars on bets is still less than the time spent watching sports and reading about them. Can be a lot less than what gets spent going to games and buying merchandise.
Europeans generally see sports bets as the equivalent of a slot machine that catches their eye, putting in some cash in and pressing the button.
I am 12-1 on MLB ML on my first 13 bets since pa online went live. They range from +115 to -180. At this rate I will retire by the end of the year. Doing $100 bets, up $890.
Now that I wrote this I will go 1-12
