Presidential Election Betting
Quote: EvenBobQuote: billryan
The poll you cite has 8% of Republicans wanting reparations. So much for the myth that ZERO percent of republicans want them.
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So what. I still claim that 0% of Republicans will vote for RFK because of reparations. Just like 80% of registered black voters are in favor of reparations but that doesn't mean 80% are going to vote for RFK Jr. He will get at least 10 to 15% you can almost guarantee that which will be totally destructive to the Democrat candidate whoever that's going to be.
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If you believe RFK will get 15% of the black vote, would you be willing to back that up with a wager?
What is an EB almost guareentee worth? $100?
Quote: billryan
If you believe RFK will get 15% of the black vote, would you be willing to back that up with a wager?
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I never make online wagers as I've explained about 40 times or years. I'm not a gambler I only like betting on sure things.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: billryan
If you believe RFK will get 15% of the black vote, would you be willing to back that up with a wager?
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I never make online wagers as I've explained about 40 times or years. I'm not a gambler I only like betting on sure things.
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Is anyone surprised?
Quote: EvenBobQuote: billryan
If you believe RFK will get 15% of the black vote, would you be willing to back that up with a wager?
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I never make online wagers as I've explained about 40 times or years. I'm not a gambler I only like betting on sure things.
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Is anyone surprised? Just more meaningless drivel.
Quote: billryanQuote: EvenBobQuote: billryan
If you believe RFK will get 15% of the black vote, would you be willing to back that up with a wager?
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I never make online wagers as I've explained about 40 times or years. I'm not a gambler I only like betting on sure things.
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Is anyone surprised?
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Nobody should be at all surprised because this subject has come up dozens and dozens of times in the last 13 years and I always give her the same explanation and everybody acts like they've never seen it before. I don't bet on politics because it's never a sure thing, I only bet on things where I know what the outcomes are going to be
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: WizardQuote: SOOPOOMy betting window is still open. Pick ANY state Biden beat Trump in 2020. I’ll bet Trump does not win that state in 2024 Presidential election.
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I'll take Georgia for $100.
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I’ll let you confirm in this thread. Just to be clear, you win if Trump is awarded electoral votes from Georgia. I win if he is not?
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Does Wizard win if Trump gets electoral votes from faithless electors?
Quote: DeucekiesQuote: SOOPOOQuote: WizardQuote: SOOPOOMy betting window is still open. Pick ANY state Biden beat Trump in 2020. I’ll bet Trump does not win that state in 2024 Presidential election.
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I'll take Georgia for $100.
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I’ll let you confirm in this thread. Just to be clear, you win if Trump is awarded electoral votes from Georgia. I win if he is not?
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Does Wizard win if Trump gets electoral votes from faithless electors?
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I’ll let Wiz decide if he wants that in the bet! If he wants that, it’s ok by me.
Judge threatens Trump with jail for violating gag order in New York fraud case
Trump hit with fine after violating gag order
'Egregious and intolerable': Trump seeks to pause D.C. gag order after being fined
BREAKING: Judge Chutkan gives Trump small win with temporary stay on gag order
Trump attack on judge's clerk seen by thousands after gag order issued: Defense attorney
Kenneth Chesebro pleads guilty in Georgia election case deal:
Quote: MichaelBluejayIn the last few days, Trump's already strong position has only gotten stronger. He's now winning in 6 of the 9 measurements I track, including, crucially, 3 of the 4 ways to score the swing state polls. He's a whopping 5 points ahead each in Georgia and Arizona. He's winning whether JFK Jr. is in the race or not, and I expect his lead there to grow once Republican voters realize that JFK Jr. favors reparations. Biden is now the clear underdog, obvious to everyone except partisan Biden supporters.
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Biden is the favorite in the only legal, and most popular US “trading” site.
Saying that Biden is a clear underdog, only obvious to partisan Biden supporters is a ridiculous claim.
To me, that’s the same thing as saying a 1.5 point favorite Raiders on Fanduel Sportsbook is a clear underdog, and only someone biased would believe otherwise.
You can claim that you believe Trump is a favorite. Because there’s some evidence he might be. But even if he is a favorite, there’s no way a reasonable person would say he’s a “clear favorite”. To me, a clear favorite is something like a 4+ point NFL favorite. I don’t even think you believe trumps odds are that high.
It’s offensive and ridiculous to claim that anyone who doesn’t agree with you must be partisan.
Quote: FinsRule
Biden is the favorite in the only legal, and most popular US “trading” site.
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So you're saying these are all wrong then? Doubtful
I’m saying that you can’t be a clear underdog if the #1 site has you as any sort of favorite.
Quote: SOOPOOI’ll let you confirm in this thread. Just to be clear, you win if Trump is awarded electoral votes from Georgia. I win if he is not?
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Confirmed. By "awarded," I mean whatever is used in the final calculation, after any court challenges, fake electors, or whatever else might happen.
Dem: -129
Rep: +103
Other: 3338
If we squeeze out the juice, that implies the probabilities are:
Dem: 54.85%
Rep: 42.33%
Other: 2.83%
I think you can draw these conclusions only if you don't look at the evidence.Quote: FinsRuleBiden is the favorite in the only legal, and most popular US “trading” site.
Saying that Biden is a clear underdog, only obvious to partisan Biden supporters is a ridiculous claim.
To me, that’s the same thing as saying a 1.5 point favorite Raiders on Fanduel Sportsbook is a clear underdog, and only someone biased would believe otherwise.
You can claim that you believe Trump is a favorite. Because there’s some evidence he might be. But even if he is a favorite, there’s no way a reasonable person would say he’s a “clear favorite”. To me, a clear favorite is something like a 4+ point NFL favorite. I don’t even think you believe trumps odds are that high.
It’s offensive and ridiculous to claim that anyone who doesn’t agree with you must be partisan.
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As per my spreadsheet, which I doubt you looked at:
(1) Trump is ahead by 44 electoral votes, based on swing state polling, without RFK Jr in the race.
(2) Trump is ahead by 44 electoral votes, based on swing state polling, and assuming the polls are as inaccurate as they were in 2020, without RFK Jr. in the race.
(3) Trump is ahead in the popular vote in the RCP polling average. And remember, historically, there's been an advantage to (R) candidates with the popular/electoral votes system. To wit, Hillary won the popular vote by 2.5 points, but still lost the electoral college. If that kind of bias holds true this time, then even when the candidates are "even" in the popular vote, Trump would really be 2.5 pts ahead.
(4) Trump is ahead in electoral votes, based on swing state polling, with RFK Jr. in the race.
(5) Trump is ahead on ElectionBettingOdds.com
(6) Trump is ahead in the popular vote, with JFK Jr. in the race.
(7) Trump is ahead, by 3.4 pts., on the average of 9 betting sites.
(8) Trump is ahead at 8 of 9 of those betting sites.
(9) Trump is a whopping five points ahead in Georgia.
(10) Trump is a whopping 4.5 points ahead in Arizona.
(11) Trump is a ahead by 1.8 points in Pennsylvania, which most unbiased observers would say approaches "comfortable". In 2020, the maximum error in 4 out of the 5 swing states was only 0.76, and the only state with a bigger error than that was Wisconsin.
So, that's my evidence. Your evidence is, what, a single trading site that you didn't even identify by name has Biden ahead? Please.
And no, I'm not a Trump supporter, I'm just looking at the evidence objectively. And there's a hell of a lot of it. Remember, Trump's odds were never near this good in 2016, and he won.
Quote: MichaelBluejay
So, that's my evidence. Your evidence is, what, a single trading site that you didn't even identify by name has Biden ahead? Please.
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I could be wrong but I think he's referring to Predictit.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: MichaelBluejay
So, that's my evidence. Your evidence is, what, a single trading site that you didn't even identify by name has Biden ahead? Please.
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I could be wrong but I think he's referring to Predictit.
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Obviously predictit. I have looked at the spreadsheet. It doesn’t meet my standards for inclusion.
Election betting odds has Trump has 1% more likely to win the presidency. In what world does that signify anything like “clear favorite”?
All you need to say is “I believe that Trump is currently a slight favorite to win the presidency.” A reasonable position to have, and one that I probably still slightly disagree with, but one that I definitely wouldn’t feel strongly enough to challenge.
I think it’s a complete tossup at the moment, by the way.
But saying “clear favorite” simply doesn’t make sense on a gambling thread. No betting sites agree with you. I’ve heard zero experts say anything close to this. I’m biased because I believe every other single political expert over you?
Maybe this is an argument about semantics, but until I see odds change, I’m going to keep rallying against this. A poll rated B/C quality that gives an extra 1% to Biden in AZ over a year from an election is just so close to meaningless.
Quote: FinsRuleObviously predictit.
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Why do you say it's the most popular in the United States, I can find no evidence of that. In fact it's so bad it was either shut down last year or they're going to shut it down. It's not even in the United States it's in New Zealand. It's received an F rating from the Better Business Bureau for 4 years in a row.
"An F rating is BBB's lowest grade. Typically, businesses with F ratings have unanswered and/or unresolved complaints or a pattern of complaints that reflects failure by the businesses to deal with the causes of customer problems."
In other words it has so many complaints that it gets an F rating. And this is your go-to betting site?
I’ve used bovada for most of my bets. Bovada has -110 for a Republican to be President. -105 for Democrat. That’s my definition of slight.
Quote: FinsRuleIt’s the only legal one in the US (for now)
I’ve used bovada for most of my bets. Bovada has -110 for a Republican to be President. -105 for Democrat. That’s my definition of slight.
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The whole point is that it favors Trump at all. This never happened at any time in 2016 or 2020 and that's what the big deal is.
Quote: MichaelBluejayIn the last few days, Trump's already strong position has only gotten stronger. He's now winning in 6 of the 9 measurements I track, including, crucially, 3 of the 4 ways to score the swing state polls. He's a whopping 5 points ahead each in Georgia and Arizona. He's winning whether JFK Jr. is in the race or not, and I expect his lead there to grow once Republican voters realize that JFK Jr. favors reparations. Biden is now the clear underdog, obvious to everyone except partisan Biden supporters.
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I'd be interested to see the crossover of Trump supporters who also don't follow the news and have no idea what is going on with his trials, what he is accused of, who is testifying against him, what the evidence is, and what he's already been found guilty of/liable for. Just from videos I've seen online of interviews with Trump supporters, many of them have no idea what is going on. If his legal matters become impossible to ignore, I imagine his support will plummet.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: FinsRuleIt’s the only legal one in the US (for now)
I’ve used bovada for most of my bets. Bovada has -110 for a Republican to be President. -105 for Democrat. That’s my definition of slight.
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The whole point is that it favors Trump at all. This never happened at any time in 2016 or 2020 and that's what the big deal is.
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Trump was favored in 2020. (But not on Election Day). He was cruising to re-election before Covid. Do I have to figure out links to show you?
I hope there’s no rule against this. I don’t think I’ve ever put a link in before. Hopefully I’m doing this right.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: FinsRuleIt’s the only legal one in the US (for now)
I’ve used bovada for most of my bets. Bovada has -110 for a Republican to be President. -105 for Democrat. That’s my definition of slight.
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The whole point is that it favors Trump at all. This never happened at any time in 2016 or 2020 and that's what the big deal is.
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You keep saying it doesn't make it matter,or true. In October 2019, according to Moodys, trump was headed to an easy re-election and led Biden 46-39 in the only poll I could find for that month. If I recall, trump was favored to win through the spring.
Quote: billryanQuote: EvenBobQuote: FinsRuleIt’s the only legal one in the US (for now)
I’ve used bovada for most of my bets. Bovada has -110 for a Republican to be President. -105 for Democrat. That’s my definition of slight.
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The whole point is that it favors Trump at all. This never happened at any time in 2016 or 2020 and that's what the big deal is.
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You keep saying it doesn't make it matter,or true. In October 2019, according to Moodys, trump was headed to an easy re-election and led Biden 46-39 in the only poll I could find for that month. If I recall, trump was favored to win through the spring.
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Looks like Trump was favored until June 3rd.
Quote: MichaelBluejay
(1) Trump is ahead by 44 electoral votes, based on swing state polling, without RFK Jr in the race.
(2) Trump is ahead by 44 electoral votes, based on swing state polling, and assuming the polls are as inaccurate as they were in 2020, without RFK Jr. in the race.
(3) Trump is ahead in the popular vote in the RCP polling average. And remember, historically, there's been an advantage to (R) candidates with the popular/electoral votes system. To wit, Hillary won the popular vote by 2.5 points, but still lost the electoral college. If that kind of bias holds true this time, then even when the candidates are "even" in the popular vote, Trump would really be 2.5 pts ahead.
(4) Trump is ahead in electoral votes, based on swing state polling, with RFK Jr. in the race.
(5) Trump is ahead on ElectionBettingOdds.com
(6) Trump is ahead in the popular vote, with JFK Jr. in the race.
(7) Trump is ahead, by 3.4 pts., on the average of 9 betting sites.
(8) Trump is ahead at 8 of 9 of those betting sites.
(9) Trump is a whopping five points ahead in Georgia.
(10) Trump is a whopping 4.5 points ahead in Arizona.
(11) Trump is a ahead by 1.8 points in Pennsylvania, which most unbiased observers would say approaches "comfortable". In 2020, the maximum error in 4 out of the 5 swing states was only 0.76, and the only state with a bigger error than that was Wisconsin.
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I challenge you to a simple even money wager. I have Biden, you have Trump. I'll go up to $1,000.
I'll email you.Quote: WizardI challenge you to a simple even money wager. I have Biden, you have Trump. I'll go up to $1,000.
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I'm sorry, it doesn't work that way. Interviews at rallies show his supporters are already well aware that Trump has been charged, but they're not interested in the evidence, they just dismiss the charges as being politically motivated. Nothing has moved the needle with them, and nothing will.Quote: TigerWuIf his legal matters become impossible to ignore, I imagine his support will plummet.
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Related note: I was born into a bona-fide mind-control cult. People under the spell are disconnected from reality, will believe any idea the cult promotes no matter how ridiculous and absurd, and can't be persuaded by facts, logic, or evidence. Cults generally believe that their cause is the most important thing in the world, which is dangerous, because that means they can justify any action they take in support of their cause, including violence. Oh, and the first thing a cult does is teach you to distrust the media. In my cult we wore buttons that literally said "Victim of the Press".
I hope that this proceeds in plain sight.Quote: MichaelBluejayI'll email you.Quote: WizardI challenge you to a simple even money wager. I have Biden, you have Trump. I'll go up to $1,000.
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I see MBJ is backing based on the current polls and odds. I know it's tight.
Can I ask Wizard why he is betting against the leading contender as things appear?
Is he maybe of the opinion that neither is likely to win anyway, making it a fun bet?
Or is it Trump's legal woes?
Are either of these parties trying to hedge?
Quote: OnceDearCan I ask Wizard why he is betting against the leading contender as things appear?
Is he maybe of the opinion that neither is likely to win anyway, making it a fun bet?
Or is it Trump's legal woes?
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I simply respect the free market of election betting more than polls. I respect Pinnacle as the gold standard line to anything. This would also serve as a small hedge to my bet with SOOPOO (I have Trump to win Georgia for $100), but that effect is negligible.
Quote: MichaelBluejay]I'll email you.
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I haven't seen the Email yet. Please send it to the one with 31416 in it or PM me.
She would also pull some independents who might otherwise vote for Biden. Women skew Democrat, but enough of them might want to see a woman president (especially the independents) to switch sides. These days it often takes only 1 or 2 percentage points to swing an election.Quote: TigerWuNikki Haley starting to creep up in some polls. I can see her continuing to climb in popularity on the GOP side of things. She doesn't have nearly the baggage of Trump or Desantis.
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https://www.imdb.com/title/tt10327252/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0_tt_5_nm_0_q_The%2520Forever%2520Purge
The Purge franchise has quite a history going back 10 years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Purge
So Purge fans will be expecting this. I never heard of this until yesterday. I only watched the latest one because it was free, the other ones cost money and they weren't the forever kind like forever stamps.
Once a year, the gov't allows 12 hours of crime including murder but certain elites are excluded because of their bunkers but mayhem goes on elsewhere. In the latest installment, the marauders illegally keep criming and murdering after the 12 hours is up and big cities everywhere in the USA become warzones with ethnic cleansing. Canada & Mexico closes its border to Americans but leaves a window of 6 hours open so people can escape America.
November 17th is fast approaching.
*******************************************
Trump on possibility of jail for life: 'I don't mind being Nelson Mandela'
Again, you can make these claims only if you ignore the evidence.Quote: FinsRuleBut saying “clear favorite” simply doesn’t make sense on a gambling thread. No betting sites agree with you. I’ve heard zero experts say anything close to this. I’m biased because I believe every other single political expert over you? Maybe this is an argument about semantics, but until I see odds change, I’m going to keep rallying against this. A poll rated B/C quality that gives an extra 1% to Biden in AZ over a year from an election is just so close to meaningless.
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As I mentioned, and you ignored, Trump is ahead at 8 of 9 betting sites (the ones tracked by RCP). He's ahead by as much as seven points. His *smallest* lead is 3 points, and that's only at 3 sites. OddsTrader calls Trump "the favorite to win the presidency".Quote: FinsRuleNo betting sites agree with you.
No, you're biased because you cherry-pick your evidence. As for "political experts", they don't have a good track record. I doubt any "political expert" was predicting a Trump win in 2016 (though as anyone who honestly looked at the actual numbers knew, it couldn't be called a slam-dunk for Clinton).Quote: FinsRuleI’ve heard zero experts say anything close to this. I’m biased because I believe every other single political expert over you?
That's what I mean by cherry-picking. You toss out all the other evidence, and insist that your one lone source is the one we should be paying attention to. You haven't even explained why your lone source, whatever it is, is supposedly "the #1 site", much less what their track record is (contrast my posting of the track record of ElectionBettingOdds, which is excellent) or why your one source is supposedly superior to swing-state polling.Quote: FinsRuleI’m saying that you can’t be a clear underdog if the #1 site has you as any sort of favorite.
And yet again, you're both ignoring and distorting the evidence. First of all, Biden is ahead *4.5* points in AZ, not one. One poll has him *5* points ahead. Second, there are two polls from AZ in the last month, not one. Third, my evidence is comprehensive, but you cherry-pick one lone data point and imply that I'm basing my entire case on it. I'm not. As I posted above, eleven different pieces of strong evidence show Trump as the favorite. You've essentially ignored all that. It comes from my spreadsheet, which it seems you've likewise ignored and probably haven't bothered to visit. Finally, you write as though I believe the data is a predictor of who's gonna win in 2024. It's not, it's a snapshot in time, it's an "if the election were held today" kind of thing. When you make these kinds of absurd arguments, I can't take you seriously. If you want to convince me you'll have to do a lot better than this.Quote: FinsRuleA poll rated B/C quality that gives an extra 1% to Biden in AZ over a year from an election is just so close to meaningless.
Quote: MichaelBluejayShe would also pull some independents who might otherwise vote for Biden. Women skew Democrat, but enough of them might want to see a woman president (especially the independents) to switch sides. These days it often takes only 1 or 2 percentage points to swing an election.
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Agreed. In my opinion, Haley is the best shot the GOP has right now. If it came down to a matchup between her and Biden, I think she would win handily. She would obviously get all the R votes, and like you said she would sway a lot of Independents and borderline-Biden voters from specific demographics.
This seems obvious to me, and I can't believe the GOP isn't throwing their weight behind her.
What are the odds of this guy getting it, and in how many votes?
Quote: TigerWuRep. Tom Emmer is the latest nominee for Speaker of the House. First vote happens today.
What are the odds of this guy getting it, and in how many votes?
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The MAGA wing opposes him because he voted to accept the last election. I don't see him even getting a floor vote, unless they want to embarrass him. Interesting times.
Quote: billryanQuote: TigerWuRep. Tom Emmer is the latest nominee for Speaker of the House. First vote happens today.
What are the odds of this guy getting it, and in how many votes?
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The MAGA wing opposes him because he voted to accept the last election. I don't see him even getting a floor vote, unless they want to embarrass him. Interesting times.
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I thought I paid attention and I never even heard of the guy. So my bet is there's no chance.
Emmer just dropped out.
LOL
Quote: TigerWuWell, that was fast....
Emmer just dropped out.
LOL
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Like he was ever in. He had more opposition than Jordan did.
Of course there's always the chance the DOJ could miss the mark and give Trump immunity in his testimony against Putin.
Quote: billryanI never thought it was possible, but after today, I believe trump is prison-bound.
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Care to wager on that position?
