ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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May 12th, 2019 at 2:51:41 PM permalink
Hi,

I have a potential AP for betting on NBA totals and would like to know if anyone has more up to date data than the useful link below:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nba/old-stuff/

then scroll down to: "Buying/Selling Extra Points on the Total"

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Below is the potential AP scenario:

An online sports books lets you "bail out" or "cash out" your bet before the game commences and they don't seem to charge a commission for NBA totals (they normally charge a commission to cash out of all other bets, if the line or odds have moved against the punter/customer)

Scenario: In 76ers @ Raptors game today I bet $110 to $100 on both the over 209 and $110 to $100 on the under 209.

The total is now 210 with that sports book, so i bailed out of the under 209, and received my $110 back.

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Strategy that I am using

1: Bet on both the over and the under, as soon as it becomes available.
2(a): If the total changes early, then i will cash out the "bad bet”, and then have the same bet again at the current total.
2(b): If the total doesn't change early, then i will go to step 3.
3: With about 5 minutes to game time, I will have another look to see what the likely "average closing total" will be using the Sports Insights and Vegas Insider websites.
4(a): If my bet is 1.5 points better than the average closing line (or more), then I will keep that bet.
4(b): If my bet is 1 point better or less than the average closing line, then I will cash out of that bet.

Note: I don't have an opinion either way of what I think the total should be, so I am just using the "market movements" to see if the bet has any "value"

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Thanks in advance for any help or opinions provided.

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Update:

I also tested this with small bets on the Trail Blazers @ Nuggets game and had $11 to $10 on both the over and under 213, then I cashed out of the over 213 before the game started (for this game i used an average closing line of about 211.5).

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Update 2:

About 15 minutes to advertised game time, I decided to bail out of both the bets because it looks like the average closing total will only be between 0.5 and 1 pt different to my best bet.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on May 12, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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May 12th, 2019 at 4:00:33 PM permalink
For the bet below I will be using a more advanced strategy (estimated 1/4 kelly)

Starting Bank: $20,000

Game: Trail Blazers @ Warriors

Current Total: 218.5

Original Bet: 2200 to 2000 on the over, and the same bet on the under.

Strategy: Use partial or full cash out facility depending on how much the total changes.
DRich
DRich
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ksdjdj
May 12th, 2019 at 6:20:10 PM permalink
That is a great AP opportunity assuming the sportsbook honors the bets and then allows you to cash out the winnings. I would be scared that they just freeze the account when you try to cash out and they claim cheating and keep all of the funds.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
Aussie
Aussie
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ksdjdj
May 12th, 2019 at 6:43:57 PM permalink
You won’t be able to do this for long before the book boots you. Even if you’re using a bowler account for one side they will easily detect it fairly quickly. Need to be using two different unrelated books.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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May 12th, 2019 at 8:22:21 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

That is a great AP opportunity assuming the sportsbook honors the bets and then allows you to cash out the winnings. I would be scared that they just freeze the account when you try to cash out and they claim cheating and keep all of the funds.


They have honored the bets in the past for the style of play below:

I placed money line bets on a few rugby league games over the weekend (Australia - NRL) and I was looking at some key websites that suggested the odds were going to increase for one team i backed, so I cashed out***, and then put the money back on at the higher odds, and they didn't charge me a commission on that one for cashing out.

***: some games I am not fast enough though and they offer me a pre-game cash out value that is less than my original stake (i won't take the cash out if that happens pre-game).

Also, I have made a similar plays on the horses, which has been good for about 10+ months.

-------------------------
Update about 935 pm

The book makes other mistakes sometimes and they still pay me, last night (Australian time) i bet on Max Verstappen to come 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the Spanish GP, and got odds of about $3.70^^^.

^^^: Odds of $23 for first, $17 for second and $6 for third = $3.717908... (if you bet so the payout is roughly the same for each bet).

At the same book, they had "will Max have a podium finish" @ $2.75 for "yes" and $1.40 for "no".

Since i could get better value "laying on Betfair" compared to taking $1.40 for no,
I backed Max Verstappen @ $3.70 with the book, and laid it on Betfair at about $3.30 (after the commission) and made about $100 "almost risk free".
Last edited by: ksdjdj on May 12, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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May 12th, 2019 at 8:31:23 PM permalink
Quote: Aussie

You won’t be able to do this for long before the book boots you. Even if you’re using a bowler account for one side they will easily detect it fairly quickly. Need to be using two different unrelated books.


You are probably right.

As far as I know only the one sports book does this (others let you cash out, but this one lets you do it for "free").

I am thinking of doing one of the strategies below (to potentially make the play last longer) :

(1) Having a single bet on either the under or the over.
This will roughly halve the value of the betting type mentioned in the OP per game (but it may let me play longer?)

(2) Having two (or more) accounts and betting different amounts and times on both the over and under.
The value for this type will be almost as good*** as the OP per game (plus it will possibly be harder to track?)

***: the total could change in the one to four hours that i plan to wait before i have the second bet with my friends account

(3) Use either of the above strategies, in conjunction with "normal bets^^^", (lets call these "cover bets").
This will reduce the EV of this play, but will possibly let me play longer?

^^^: bets that generally have a long-term - EV, or at the very least bets that I "let ride", no matter which way the value goes.

Which of the above strategies would you use (if any)?
Do you have another strategy you could suggest?

Thanks
Last edited by: ksdjdj on May 13, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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May 12th, 2019 at 9:00:53 PM permalink
I am going to test and see if they also do this for basketball in other countries (eg Euroleague), the NRL (rugby league) and the AFL (aussie rules).

In the Melbourne Storm vs West Tigers game (NRL), I Just had $10 @ $1.91 on the over 38.5 and in a few hours I will have between $5 and $20 on the under 38.5 (if it is still available).

The book doesn't have any totals for the AFL yet so I can't test that league.

Note: I will also have a small test on the ice hockey, baseball and soccer totals, (but i don't think it will work for those games).

_---------------
Update:

I decided not to test the ice hockey, baseball and soccer totals, because i did some research and I think sports books usually change the odds before they change the number for those totals, right?

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Update 2:

I had some small test bets on the spread betting for the two upcoming NBA games (the ones around the 14th to 15th of May).
I did this because i also managed to bail out of the 76ers @ +6, and bet again at +6.5 earlier today (without paying a premium).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on May 12, 2019
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
May 12th, 2019 at 10:36:44 PM permalink
Unlike some of our resident pick peddlers, when ksdjdj posts something it's totally legit. Sharp guy when it comes to this type of stuff.

His betting on will the lottery hit using the lottery ticket sales information was smart.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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May 12th, 2019 at 10:45:08 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Unlike some of our resident pick peddlers, when ksdjdj posts something it's totally legit. Sharp guy when it comes to this type of stuff.

His betting on will the lottery hit using the lottery ticket sales information was smart.


Thanks AxelWolf,

Too bad i am not winning with the lotto bets yet, even though they are still good bets from an EV point of view.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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May 12th, 2019 at 10:51:37 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Thanks AxelWolf,

Too bad i am not winning with the lotto bets yet, even though they are still good bets from an EV point of view.



Refer the The Wizards tag line. Just not on Superbowl safety bets (-;
------------------------------------------
Time for you to Marty those bets, you are due (-;
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

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