ksdjdj
ksdjdj
  • Threads: 94
  • Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
June 4th, 2015 at 4:51:50 AM permalink
I think there is a huge advantage/discrepancy in the teaser below (for the NBA part at least),

------------------

Sportbook: 5dimes

Teaser Odds: + 101

Teaser Type: (5 pts football and 4.5 pts basketball, TIES WIN)

Team A: 6/4/2015 9:00 PM NBA (1st 48 min) 702 Golden State Warriors* +4 vs Cleveland Cavaliers

Team B^^^: 9/13/2015 1:00 PM NFL Football 470 Buffalo Bills* +7 vs Indianapolis Colts

Please Note for Team B^^^: I had to pick another team, and i chose the Bills for team B (since you can't have a 1 team teaser), but you don't need to follow me on the second part of the teaser (this will still be a VERY good teaser, even if you choose almost anyone for team B)

-----------------

the basketball part of the teaser seems to be a really good bet*** to me and I just threw in the football one 'blindly',

good bet*** : (i) this one is based on the first 48 minutes, so it is possible to end in a tie (even though a normal teaser that passes through 0 is generally a bad bet)
(ii): One sportsbook (pinnacle sports) has the Money-line for the GS Warriors @ -230 to win the game, so adding 4.5 pts^*^ would be awesome on top of that. (4 points TIES WIN = + 4.5 points)

4.5 pts ^*^: correct me if I am wrong but this seems to be equivalent to a 10.5 point teaser, since the GS Warriors are currently @ -6

I don't have any figures to work out a good estimated edge for a 10.5 point teaser (so had to use the figures for an 8.5 point teaser).
According to the 8.5 point teaser (mentioned in the link further down), this bet would have at least a 13% player edge for the first part of the bet alone (see proof below) .

----------------------------------

Teaser odds: +101 ($2.01)

Equivalent per game odds of: about - 239 (or ~ $1.4177...)

Theoretical RTP for NBA part of teaser: = ~113.69...% ($1.4177 x 80.2%)

Therefore the player edge is: at least 13% for the NBA part of the teaser

-----------------------------------

According to the link below, an 8.5 point teaser is rated about - 406 odds of happening (or ~ 80.2...% chance of happening)

https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nba/

see table: "Buying/Selling Extra Points on the Spread — Bet except if Spread Is Zero"

------------------

Disclaimer: I don't have an opinion on any teams mentioned in this thread and just thought the discrepancy in the numbers was too big to pass up
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 86
  • Posts: 11596
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
June 4th, 2015 at 7:43:00 AM permalink
What am I missing?

If GS is -6.5 and it is a 4.5 point teaser how are you getting 10.5 point difference? Wouldn't you be getting GS at -2 which is a 4.5 point difference?
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
  • Threads: 94
  • Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
June 4th, 2015 at 2:31:43 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

What am I missing?

If GS is -6.5 and it is a 4.5 point teaser how are you getting 10.5 point difference? Wouldn't you be getting GS at -2 which is a 4.5 point difference?



I thought so too DRich, I did a triple take when i saw it, since just above they have the normal teaser for GS @ -1.5 (at the time)

-------------------------

It is under the section 4.5 point basketball ties win teaser, but it seems to be about the equivalent to a 10.5 points*** teaser to me (compared to the line)

10.5 points*** (update from original post): the line for GS of -5.5, makes it is closer to 10 point teaser now

-------------------------

summary:

Game Parameters/option: 1st 48 minutes

The website's Stated teaser amount: +4.5 point basketball teaser

Teased Line: GS Warriors +4 (ties win), the ties win makes it the same as getting Warriors @ + 4.5

Current Line: Warriors - 5.5

Teaser Equivalent to a: 10 point teaser (with the line -5.5 teased to + 4.0, ties win)

----------------------------

again don't know if I am missing something either, but it still seems like a good bet

lastly it was still available as of 20 minutes ago, so i took it again, but this time with team b being: Pittsburgh Steelers @ + 7 vs Patriots
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 86
  • Posts: 11596
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
June 4th, 2015 at 2:40:17 PM permalink
Generally the way a teaser works is that if it is a +4 pt teaser you get 4 extra points. You don't get the team at +4. So if GS is -6 on the regular line with the 4 point teaser you will get them at -2 instead of -6.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
  • Threads: 94
  • Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
June 4th, 2015 at 2:52:24 PM permalink
post deleted (couldn't get image to load)
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
  • Threads: 94
  • Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
June 4th, 2015 at 2:52:44 PM permalink
post deleted (couldn't get image to load)
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
  • Threads: 94
  • Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
June 4th, 2015 at 3:05:01 PM permalink
I understand that, but have a look for yourself, here is a cut and paste version of my bet (see below)

---------------------

"... 2 Team Teaser (ties win) T tw 5nfl 5½fb & 4½bk***
Pending 6/4/15 9:00pm NBA Basketball 702 Golden State Warriors (1st 48 min) +4 * vs Cleveland Cavaliers (1st 48 min)
Pending 9/13/15 1:00pm NFL Football 470 Buffalo Bills +7 * vs Indianapolis Colts "


***: these Teaser abbreviations mean:
(i) 5nfl = 5 points nfl
(ii) 4½bk = 4.5 points basketball

--------------------

again i agree with you that the teased line should be -1 for GS, but at 5dimes with the (1st 48 min) option selected, it seems to be the equivalent to a 10 point teaser, unless I am missing something
sabre
sabre
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 1172
Joined: Aug 16, 2010
June 4th, 2015 at 3:37:53 PM permalink
Sounds like an error on 5D part. Very low chance it goes through if you win. They're basically freerolling you at this point.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
  • Threads: 94
  • Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
June 4th, 2015 at 5:15:21 PM permalink
Quote: sabre

Sounds like an error on 5D part. Very low chance it goes through if you win. They're basically freerolling you at this point.



Been paid before by them on seemingly erroneous lines in my favour,
but i didn't put the house on it or anything just a couple hundred bucks (so that I am not too disappointed if they use the old "...obvious erroneous line..." clause, to cancel the bet)
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
  • Threads: 94
  • Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
June 4th, 2015 at 8:56:32 PM permalink
The GS part of the teaser has been marked as a winner already, since the game ended in a regulation tie (not including overtime),

Now I will probably 'hedge out' of the second part of the teaser by backing the Colts against the Bills (and hope for a split/middle for that game)

I know it is not worth waiting a few months for a bet of a couple hundred bucks (since that is when the first NFL regular season game(s) start), but this was partly just a test to see if they would mark it as a winner or void it.

Lastly, if i see a similar discrepancy again, i will probably have a few thousand on it (or as much as i can afford on it)
  • Jump to: