2018 Breeders’ Cup
October 29th, 2018 at 6:47:08 PM
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The best day of races all year is Saturday! Post any picks or thoughts here.
I’ll start:
Catholic Boy to win the Classic
I’ll start:
Catholic Boy to win the Classic
October 29th, 2018 at 7:03:14 PM
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Change in the structure this year: Friday will consist of the five races for two-year-olds, including the new Juvenile Turf Sprint (5 1/2 furlongs)
October 29th, 2018 at 7:41:36 PM
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Catholic Boy is my buddie's pick, I am going with McKinzie most likely.
October 29th, 2018 at 8:01:31 PM
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Quote: ThatDonGuyChange in the structure this year: Friday will consist of the five races for two-year-olds, including the new Juvenile Turf Sprint (5 1/2 furlongs)
I love the new structure. I will focus 90% of my time and money on Saturday.
October 31st, 2018 at 7:43:05 PM
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I’m trying to handicap the Breeders’ Cup and it’s too hard.
I have three kids now. I don’t have time for this.
I finished looking at the Juvenile Turf Sprint. An impossible race.
My picks are 10 - 7 - 2
So Perfect - 12-1. Aiden O’Brien on the grass at 12-1. She’s raced at the highest levels in Europe, so she’s worth a look at 12-1.
This is the great thing about horse racing. If I am betting two team 7 point football teasers, I need to go 3-2 just to break even. I just need to go 1 for 14 in the Breeders Cup to break even. If I go 2 for 14, I’m doing great.
I have three kids now. I don’t have time for this.
I finished looking at the Juvenile Turf Sprint. An impossible race.
My picks are 10 - 7 - 2
So Perfect - 12-1. Aiden O’Brien on the grass at 12-1. She’s raced at the highest levels in Europe, so she’s worth a look at 12-1.
This is the great thing about horse racing. If I am betting two team 7 point football teasers, I need to go 3-2 just to break even. I just need to go 1 for 14 in the Breeders Cup to break even. If I go 2 for 14, I’m doing great.
October 31st, 2018 at 8:11:36 PM
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You got it FIN.
But I like to bet the show.
But I like to bet the show.
October 31st, 2018 at 8:19:36 PM
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Ok, I got one more done before bed. 12 more races left and 2 nights to do it. Race 6 Friday - Juvenile Fillies Turf.
1 - 6 - 3
1 - Concrete Rose (6-1). Yes, I’m picking her ahead of the 6 - Newspaperofrecord. The 6 will probably be 7-5 odds and I’m hoping the 1 drifts up to 8-1. Concrete Rose’s last race looked impressive, even though the speed figure came up light.
I can’t fault anyone for picking the 6. I just can’t bet on a horse with that low of odds in this spot. I will probably be wrong.
1 - 6 - 3
1 - Concrete Rose (6-1). Yes, I’m picking her ahead of the 6 - Newspaperofrecord. The 6 will probably be 7-5 odds and I’m hoping the 1 drifts up to 8-1. Concrete Rose’s last race looked impressive, even though the speed figure came up light.
I can’t fault anyone for picking the 6. I just can’t bet on a horse with that low of odds in this spot. I will probably be wrong.
November 1st, 2018 at 6:37:23 PM
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Race 7 Friday - BC Juvenile Fillies is going to be tough. There seems to be a lot of speed so I want a horse that can close.
4 - 8 - 5
4 - Restless Rider should get a great trip. 9/2 is the morning line, but I think I’ll get 5 or 6-1.
The 5 is a bomb at 30-1. She could help an Exacta or Trifecta pay a ton.
4 - 8 - 5
4 - Restless Rider should get a great trip. 9/2 is the morning line, but I think I’ll get 5 or 6-1.
The 5 is a bomb at 30-1. She could help an Exacta or Trifecta pay a ton.
November 1st, 2018 at 8:08:32 PM
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Breeders Cup Classic 1&1/4 Miles
Accelerate may be the best horse in the 14 PP, but I like West Coast in the 7 hole. No legitimate early speed in PP 6 & 8 West Coast is 6-5-1 in 12 starts, The third came in this race last year as a 3 year old. He was steadied early in that race. 1st & 2nd were taken by 4 year olds. West Coast is 4 now. After 8 month lay off , he ran second to Accelerate in his last race, Led for 6F in that race,
Trainer might know how to get a horse ready to carry his speed for 1M & 1/4. He was in the winner's circle in 2014.2015, & 2016.
Accelerate may be the best horse in the 14 PP, but I like West Coast in the 7 hole. No legitimate early speed in PP 6 & 8 West Coast is 6-5-1 in 12 starts, The third came in this race last year as a 3 year old. He was steadied early in that race. 1st & 2nd were taken by 4 year olds. West Coast is 4 now. After 8 month lay off , he ran second to Accelerate in his last race, Led for 6F in that race,
Trainer might know how to get a horse ready to carry his speed for 1M & 1/4. He was in the winner's circle in 2014.2015, & 2016.
November 1st, 2018 at 8:09:02 PM
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Race 8 - Juvenile Turf. I’m not a Euro expert at all. But the Americans don’t look great. So I’m going to try to find a good Euro here.
5 - 2 - 13
5 - Line of Duty (10-1). Cutting back in distance which is unique for this group. I think it will help him over the soft going. Out of the Americans, I’ll put the 2 horse in there - Uncle Benny.
I’ll do the last Friday race before bed.
5 - 2 - 13
5 - Line of Duty (10-1). Cutting back in distance which is unique for this group. I think it will help him over the soft going. Out of the Americans, I’ll put the 2 horse in there - Uncle Benny.
I’ll do the last Friday race before bed.
November 1st, 2018 at 8:43:58 PM
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Juvenile. Final Race on Friday.
I’ll go with the chalk - Game Winner. Gotta trust Baffert.
I’ll put the 5 in an Exacta box to make it pay
9 - 11 - 5
Good luck tomorrow.
I’ll go with the chalk - Game Winner. Gotta trust Baffert.
I’ll put the 5 in an Exacta box to make it pay
9 - 11 - 5
Good luck tomorrow.
November 2nd, 2018 at 1:11:38 PM
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2 races done today. I’m not doing so great. But I didn’t bet much and there’s still a lot left.
Tomorrow’s Filly Sprint I have 11 - 13 - 8.
It’s going to be a fast pace and there aren’t any great closets. This could get crazy.
Finleysluckycharm has raced 7 times at Churchill and has won 6. I’ll pick her.
Tomorrow’s Filly Sprint I have 11 - 13 - 8.
It’s going to be a fast pace and there aren’t any great closets. This could get crazy.
Finleysluckycharm has raced 7 times at Churchill and has won 6. I’ll pick her.
November 2nd, 2018 at 1:54:58 PM
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My top pick has finished 3rd / off the board / 2nd
Not terrible
Speed has been holding so far. It wasn’t supposed to.
In the turf sprint tomorrow I’m going 11 - 6 - 14.
The 11 has speed and has taken to the turf. The 6 is interesting because he went off to stud duty and is back. I wonder what he likes more...
Not terrible
Speed has been holding so far. It wasn’t supposed to.
In the turf sprint tomorrow I’m going 11 - 6 - 14.
The 11 has speed and has taken to the turf. The 6 is interesting because he went off to stud duty and is back. I wonder what he likes more...
November 2nd, 2018 at 2:08:28 PM
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From the cosmic tablets of the General Laws of Breeders Cup physics, Commandment #5: In any two-turn turf race, the question to be answered above all others is almost always "which Euro?" And #5(b): For the purpose of this Law, the term "almost" translates to "what's Chad Brown got?"
In the Juvy Turf (8th @ 2:22 ET post) I like Line of Duty (9.8f AWD) and Anthony Van Dyck (9.1f AWD). I list them in that order because of nothing but a wild guess as to the price the tote board might offer. There needs to be a reasonably generous (> 5/1) price here to play anything at all for real money.
On the Churchill turf course today, out in midtrack or at least well off the hedge by several paths is the place to be for the best footing. Not "saving ground." Not today. A lot of moisture in the turf doesn't generally play the same on US grass courses as it does in many European venues with their deeper cut and different base and their courses that are routinely rated as "good" to "soft" and not uncommonly "yielding" or "heavy." Here, a lot of recent rain still held in the course is often a more favorable condition for runners on the lead, or pressing the pace if set by a "short" horse or two at the distance. And I think that's a major caution flag arguing against too much confident enthu$ia&m for those two I just mentioned above.
In the Juvy Turf (8th @ 2:22 ET post) I like Line of Duty (9.8f AWD) and Anthony Van Dyck (9.1f AWD). I list them in that order because of nothing but a wild guess as to the price the tote board might offer. There needs to be a reasonably generous (> 5/1) price here to play anything at all for real money.
On the Churchill turf course today, out in midtrack or at least well off the hedge by several paths is the place to be for the best footing. Not "saving ground." Not today. A lot of moisture in the turf doesn't generally play the same on US grass courses as it does in many European venues with their deeper cut and different base and their courses that are routinely rated as "good" to "soft" and not uncommonly "yielding" or "heavy." Here, a lot of recent rain still held in the course is often a more favorable condition for runners on the lead, or pressing the pace if set by a "short" horse or two at the distance. And I think that's a major caution flag arguing against too much confident enthu$ia&m for those two I just mentioned above.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
November 2nd, 2018 at 2:18:47 PM
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I just put $10 on Van Dyck to win with a bet back promo if he finishes 2nd or 3rd.
In tomorrow’s dirt mile Catalina Cruiser is by far horse to beat. I’ll see if Firenze Fire can beat him.
7 - 10 - 6
Like newspaperofrecord, I wouldn’t blame you if you ignored my top pick and just went with Catalina and got some easy money. If he’s feeling ok and wants to run, he should win. I think he goes off at 4-5.
In tomorrow’s dirt mile Catalina Cruiser is by far horse to beat. I’ll see if Firenze Fire can beat him.
7 - 10 - 6
Like newspaperofrecord, I wouldn’t blame you if you ignored my top pick and just went with Catalina and got some easy money. If he’s feeling ok and wants to run, he should win. I think he goes off at 4-5.
November 2nd, 2018 at 2:28:03 PM
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Quote: FinsRuleRace 8 - Juvenile Turf. I’m not a Euro expert at all. But the Americans don’t look great. So I’m going to try to find a good Euro here.
5 - 2 - 13
5 - Line of Duty (10-1). Cutting back in distance which is unique for this group. I think it will help him over the soft going. Out of the Americans, I’ll put the 2 horse in there - Uncle Benny.
I’ll do the last Friday race before bed.
36-1 for the exacta! Had it for $2. Made some money today!
November 2nd, 2018 at 3:06:14 PM
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Filly and Mare Turf looks like a fun race. I’m picking a Euro.
Frankie Dettori on the outside.
14 - 3 - 9.
The outside post can be iffy, but hopefully it helps my price. I’ve got a top rider, so it shouldn’t be a problem.
Frankie Dettori on the outside.
14 - 3 - 9.
The outside post can be iffy, but hopefully it helps my price. I’ve got a top rider, so it shouldn’t be a problem.
November 2nd, 2018 at 3:19:39 PM
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Summary for Friday:
If you would have made $1 Exacta Box bets on my Top 3 selections, and made a $2 WPS bet on my top selection, it would have cost $60. The return would have been...
Race 5 - $5.80 (So Perfect - Show)
Race 6 - $0
Race 7 - $7.20 (Restless Rider - Place)
Race 8 - $18.40 (Line of Duty - Win) + $37.60 (Exacta)
Race 9 - $10.00 (Game Winner - Win)
Total = $79 (Over 30% return!)
Let's hope it continues tomorrow. 5 more races for me to get to tonight.
If you would have made $1 Exacta Box bets on my Top 3 selections, and made a $2 WPS bet on my top selection, it would have cost $60. The return would have been...
Race 5 - $5.80 (So Perfect - Show)
Race 6 - $0
Race 7 - $7.20 (Restless Rider - Place)
Race 8 - $18.40 (Line of Duty - Win) + $37.60 (Exacta)
Race 9 - $10.00 (Game Winner - Win)
Total = $79 (Over 30% return!)
Let's hope it continues tomorrow. 5 more races for me to get to tonight.
November 2nd, 2018 at 4:59:01 PM
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The Sprint looks to be a lot of fun. I love Promises Fulfilled. I’m going to see if he can upset the two favorites. If not, I’ll do a 4 horse tri box.
2 - 9 - 8 (5)
2 - 9 - 8 (5)
November 2nd, 2018 at 5:16:10 PM
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These races are all so hard. I’ve said this for a bunch of them, but the Mile might be the hardest.
I’m going 8 - 5 - 13.
I’m playing a pick 4 and I’ll probably hit the all button. It’s that hard.
I’m going 8 - 5 - 13.
I’m playing a pick 4 and I’ll probably hit the all button. It’s that hard.
November 2nd, 2018 at 5:29:25 PM
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I’m going to go against the big horses in the Distaff and make my top pick Wow Cat for Chad Brown. If she just didn’t like Saratoga (which a lot of horses don’t), she could be ready for a big performance.
I’m putting 6 horses in my pick 4.
9 - 7 - 2
I’m putting 6 horses in my pick 4.
9 - 7 - 2
November 2nd, 2018 at 5:55:34 PM
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The turf is all about Enable. I’m putting her and the other big horse in my pick 4. I’ll use Channel Maker as the best American hope.
The 12 - Waldgeist will be my official top pick, but I’ll be rooting for Enable.
12 - 2 - 3
The 12 - Waldgeist will be my official top pick, but I’ll be rooting for Enable.
12 - 2 - 3
November 2nd, 2018 at 6:16:22 PM
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Am I allowed to change my Classic pick? Mind Your Biscuits it is! This is a wide wide wide open classic.
I have some future bets on Thunder Snow and Pavel, so I’ll be rooting for them, Biscuits and Catholic Boy.
My top 4:
11 - 14 - 3 - 6
Good luck everyone!!!!
I have some future bets on Thunder Snow and Pavel, so I’ll be rooting for them, Biscuits and Catholic Boy.
My top 4:
11 - 14 - 3 - 6
Good luck everyone!!!!
November 3rd, 2018 at 10:25:06 AM
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At post time for CD 5th Catalina Cruiser is an unsurprising 3/5 on the nose, but is only 26% of the place pool and 22% of the show money.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
November 3rd, 2018 at 10:39:36 AM
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Quote: DrawingDeadAt post time for CD 5th Catalina Cruiser is an unsurprising 3/5 on the nose, but is only 26% of the place pool and 22% of the show money.
The announcers were all over that bad early break on the outside by Catalina Cruiser... but I'm not sure anyone could have beaten City of Light there.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
November 3rd, 2018 at 10:43:26 AM
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The break was bad, but that wasn’t the problem. Does this mean bad things for accelerate?
November 3rd, 2018 at 11:06:15 AM
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I agree. Better break = same outcome.Quote: FinsRule<SNIP> ...but that wasn’t the problem.
I'm a chalk eating weasel in the 6th, the F&M Turf at the eccentric distance. Taking #3-Wild Illusion & #6-Sistercharlie across the board, and also including #10-Magic Wand & #14-Ezlyra in exotics. Apparently along with everyone else in the world with two bills to rub together. But in the 14 horse field the prices still look adequate to me.
Once again the favorite Wild Illusion has taken a significantly smaller proportion of the money in the place and show pools than the win betting on her, as they begin loading.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
November 3rd, 2018 at 11:17:44 AM
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Take down the nine! For... something or other dammit, because money. Yes, I'm a greedy chalk eating weasel, not content with merely a net profit, gimmie all of it. It's a turf route, so all that money in every kind of wagering pool from this thing should be mine. So I can afford to continue sucking at one turn dirt events & suchlike.
But the Mile (turf) in the 8th amounts to a roulette wheel as far as I'm concerned, and the BC Sprint is and always has been a heinous spectacle conducted for the sadistic amusement of Satan, so I'll be sitting on my wallet for the next couple of hours now. So a sincere good luck to whatever someone may think they have in the coming crapshoots of the next few races.
But the Mile (turf) in the 8th amounts to a roulette wheel as far as I'm concerned, and the BC Sprint is and always has been a heinous spectacle conducted for the sadistic amusement of Satan, so I'll be sitting on my wallet for the next couple of hours now. So a sincere good luck to whatever someone may think they have in the coming crapshoots of the next few races.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Nov 3, 2018
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
November 3rd, 2018 at 2:00:59 PM
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10th race, IMO the spectacular filly #2-Enable (10.8f AWD) obviously deserves to be the heavy favorite in the Turf. She's not just very good, she's a great one. But she's not a lock. To me these are not 2/5 circumstances; she'd be fair value around even money. I do think #12-Waldgeist (10.4f AWD) could be live here, for any position on the board, but apparently that opinion is shared by at least a few hundred thousand of my closest US Federal Reserve Note friends and counting.
If the shape of the wagering flow continues near what it is now for several more minutes, these remaining two races will involve light betting for me and the earlier F&M Turf race will remain most of my action for the day. I expect I may 'cheap out' with a little box of (#2 & #12), a small sporting punt on the rolling double with (2/12) here with (1/14) in the Classic, and some cowardly little sporting wagers across the board on #12 calibrated to be sure I don't come close to giving back any significant part of my race #6 result.
If the shape of the wagering flow continues near what it is now for several more minutes, these remaining two races will involve light betting for me and the earlier F&M Turf race will remain most of my action for the day. I expect I may 'cheap out' with a little box of (#2 & #12), a small sporting punt on the rolling double with (2/12) here with (1/14) in the Classic, and some cowardly little sporting wagers across the board on #12 calibrated to be sure I don't come close to giving back any significant part of my race #6 result.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
November 3rd, 2018 at 2:25:03 PM
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I think that was an impressive performance by O'Brian's 3yo filly Magical to get a very game 2nd, since she just shipped over and went through quarantine right after taking a Group 1 at Ascot only 14 days ago, and this was her 3rd top class 12 furlong turf race in 27 days for a total of 4.5 miles altogether.
Enable ended up with only 32% of the place pool, as opposed to taking about 47% of the win money. I thought that offered acceptable value on her to place; not terrific value, but about a tablespoon and a pinch more that what I estimated would be bare break-even level.
Enable ended up with only 32% of the place pool, as opposed to taking about 47% of the win money. I thought that offered acceptable value on her to place; not terrific value, but about a tablespoon and a pinch more that what I estimated would be bare break-even level.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
November 3rd, 2018 at 2:27:36 PM
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Quote: DrawingDeadI think that was an impressive performance by O'Brian's 3yo filly to get 2nd, since she shipped over and went through quarantine after taking a Group 1 at Ascot just 14 days ago, and this was her 3rd top class 12 furlong turf race in 27 days for a total of 4.5 miles altogether.
Enable ended up with only 32% of the place pool, as opposed to taking about 47% of the win money. I thought that offered acceptable value on her to place; not terrific value, but about a tablespoon and a pinch more that what I estimated would be bare break-even level.
Enable has her rightful place in the record books.
I'm surprised at McKinzie. I was really hoping to get him at 4-1 or 5-1, but that appears to be a pipe dream.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
November 3rd, 2018 at 2:39:30 PM
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I finally cashed a ticket. Hit the tri for $125. Should have bet the dime super instead. Bet would have cost about the same, payout was $410.
If Thunder Snow, Pavel, Mind Your Biscuits or McKinzie wins, it’s a successful Breeders Cup. If not, its a loss.
If Thunder Snow, Pavel, Mind Your Biscuits or McKinzie wins, it’s a successful Breeders Cup. If not, its a loss.
November 3rd, 2018 at 3:02:17 PM
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I don’t know how that horse won that race. I thought Thunder Snow was going to win.
Oh well. Derby is in 6 months!
Oh well. Derby is in 6 months!
November 3rd, 2018 at 4:04:33 PM
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An unseemly & totally unsympathetic string of pointless griping follows:
Grrrrr, if only #1 found just a little bit more to hold that deep stretch lead for about another dozen yards to the wire, I'd be adding a pretty nice bucket of cash from a very small risk to the day's stack, instead of ending the day by making just a little cup of extra change to go with a lot of entertainment value for that last two minutes... and if the moon was made of green cheese. I'm cashing for another net gain on that result, and one shouldn't really complain about results that get you paid more than you had before they left the paddock. But obviously Thunder Snow would've made a much louder cha-ching when completing that Turf/Classic double than Accelerate, and after being largely dismissed at that price would also come with a gloating license. This way, I'm entitled to a total of zero gloating points for cashing on a not so exotic Enable/Accelerate 'Daily Double' ticket. Duh. But at $19.40 per $2 what I just said amounts to complaining about finding an extra chip in the sand at the end of a profitable day of sipping umbrella drinks while skimming off a special tide of money that annually washes ashore at this beach, because first I thought the last extra chip really looked like it might be good for something more like a week of white linen tablecloth dinners instead of just adding a free lunch. So I remain a greedy chalk eating weasel, and a bit cowardly in how I go about it too. Good day to all.
Grrrrr, if only #1 found just a little bit more to hold that deep stretch lead for about another dozen yards to the wire, I'd be adding a pretty nice bucket of cash from a very small risk to the day's stack, instead of ending the day by making just a little cup of extra change to go with a lot of entertainment value for that last two minutes... and if the moon was made of green cheese. I'm cashing for another net gain on that result, and one shouldn't really complain about results that get you paid more than you had before they left the paddock. But obviously Thunder Snow would've made a much louder cha-ching when completing that Turf/Classic double than Accelerate, and after being largely dismissed at that price would also come with a gloating license. This way, I'm entitled to a total of zero gloating points for cashing on a not so exotic Enable/Accelerate 'Daily Double' ticket. Duh. But at $19.40 per $2 what I just said amounts to complaining about finding an extra chip in the sand at the end of a profitable day of sipping umbrella drinks while skimming off a special tide of money that annually washes ashore at this beach, because first I thought the last extra chip really looked like it might be good for something more like a week of white linen tablecloth dinners instead of just adding a free lunch. So I remain a greedy chalk eating weasel, and a bit cowardly in how I go about it too. Good day to all.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
November 3rd, 2018 at 7:46:27 PM
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as usual I found these races tough to profit on but found two great plays at gulfstream west.....to each his own.
get second you pig
November 4th, 2018 at 1:18:04 AM
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I did okay but I somehow forgot to look at the Distaff
Monomoy Girl, a horse I love but somehow managed to forget about until it was too late was a great play at 9/5 - this horse is all but flawless
Abel Tasman drew lots of action keeping the Girl's odds higher than usual and Abel Tasman had folded badly in her previous race
𝐃𝐀𝐌𝐍. one of these days I've got to get 𝕠𝕣𝕘𝕒𝕟𝕚𝕫𝕚𝕫𝕖𝕕
I can't afford to make a lot of eff ups like this
🇮 🇳🇪🇪🇩 🇸🇴🇲🇪🇧🇴🇩🇾 🇹🇴 🇹🇪🇱🇱 🇲🇪 🇮🇹'🇸 🇴🇰🇦🇾 🇮🇹 🇭🇦🇵🇵🇪🇳🇸 🇹🇴 🇪🇻🇪🇷🇾🇧🇴🇩🇾 - that's not going to happen
Monomoy Girl, a horse I love but somehow managed to forget about until it was too late was a great play at 9/5 - this horse is all but flawless
Abel Tasman drew lots of action keeping the Girl's odds higher than usual and Abel Tasman had folded badly in her previous race
𝐃𝐀𝐌𝐍. one of these days I've got to get 𝕠𝕣𝕘𝕒𝕟𝕚𝕫𝕚𝕫𝕖𝕕
I can't afford to make a lot of eff ups like this
🇮 🇳🇪🇪🇩 🇸🇴🇲🇪🇧🇴🇩🇾 🇹🇴 🇹🇪🇱🇱 🇲🇪 🇮🇹'🇸 🇴🇰🇦🇾 🇮🇹 🇭🇦🇵🇵🇪🇳🇸 🇹🇴 🇪🇻🇪🇷🇾🇧🇴🇩🇾 - that's not going to happen
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
