No Jackpot Winner Powerball Prop Bet
November 24th, 2019 at 5:39:13 AM
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Nice to see you back, ksdjdj. Hope your health has stabilized.
It's an interesting thread. I'd like to see whether your results are paying on a running basis, if you're willing to share those stats.
It's an interesting thread. I'd like to see whether your results are paying on a running basis, if you're willing to share those stats.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
November 24th, 2019 at 12:37:19 PM
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I am losing $3,475, i will probably add the p/l to the results summary from now on (so people don't have to search through the whole thread to work it out manually)
Also, on a few draws before March 27th, 2019, there was a very high chance that I missed some +EV plays that would have won. In the post I said "...I forgot to keep up to date with my "lotto bets", so I have probably missed some +EV opportunities over the last three or four Powerball draws....".
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For the next Powerball draw there is an extremely high chance it is going to be +EV on the "no jackpot winner" prop.
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 11/27/19"
Odds: -1375
Estimated Tickets: ~12.10 million*** (or $24.2 million worth of tickets)
Estimated Chance: ~95.943...%
Estimated EV: ~ +2.92...%
"Staking Method": 1/3 Kelly
Bet Amount: ~ 13.4% of bank roll
Will I have a bet: yes
When will I bet; about 30% of the bet now, and 70% closer to when the draw closes.
***: this is an early estimate, as the txlottery website puts up an updated "sales estimate" closer to the draw date.
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Other info:
My real tickets estimate for this Powerball draw is 11.1 million +/1 a million tickets, see link below for their own estimate
https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Documents/jackpotestimates/pb20191123.pdf
If I didn't have access to the Powerball lottery's own sales estimates, then I would have put up a figure between 10.1 and 10.5 million tickets as the "middle amount" for my sales estimate. This method is similar to the "Mega Millions method", since the Mega Millions doesn't have a "sales estimate" page (so I have to use the previous sales on the lotto report website and/or the difference between the current "cash jackpot" and the previous "cash jackpot"and then divide that figure by about 0.34 for Powerball and 0.3765 for Mega Millions, to get the estimated ticket sales in $'s).
Note: Mega millions, is still -750, so I will have the rest of my bet closer to the draw date for that one (hoping for an increase in odds).
Also, on a few draws before March 27th, 2019, there was a very high chance that I missed some +EV plays that would have won. In the post I said "...I forgot to keep up to date with my "lotto bets", so I have probably missed some +EV opportunities over the last three or four Powerball draws....".
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For the next Powerball draw there is an extremely high chance it is going to be +EV on the "no jackpot winner" prop.
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 11/27/19"
Odds: -1375
Estimated Tickets: ~12.10 million*** (or $24.2 million worth of tickets)
Estimated Chance: ~95.943...%
Estimated EV: ~ +2.92...%
"Staking Method": 1/3 Kelly
Bet Amount: ~ 13.4% of bank roll
Will I have a bet: yes
When will I bet; about 30% of the bet now, and 70% closer to when the draw closes.
***: this is an early estimate, as the txlottery website puts up an updated "sales estimate" closer to the draw date.
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Other info:
My real tickets estimate for this Powerball draw is 11.1 million +/1 a million tickets, see link below for their own estimate
https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Documents/jackpotestimates/pb20191123.pdf
If I didn't have access to the Powerball lottery's own sales estimates, then I would have put up a figure between 10.1 and 10.5 million tickets as the "middle amount" for my sales estimate. This method is similar to the "Mega Millions method", since the Mega Millions doesn't have a "sales estimate" page (so I have to use the previous sales on the lotto report website and/or the difference between the current "cash jackpot" and the previous "cash jackpot"and then divide that figure by about 0.34 for Powerball and 0.3765 for Mega Millions, to get the estimated ticket sales in $'s).
Note: Mega millions, is still -750, so I will have the rest of my bet closer to the draw date for that one (hoping for an increase in odds).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 24, 2019
November 25th, 2019 at 5:19:58 PM
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There is a small increase*** in the estimated edge on both the Mega Millions and Powerball "no jackpot" props.
The "No Jackpot Winner" for the Mega Millions went from -750 to -700,
and the "No Jackpot Winner" for the Powerball went from -1375 to -1300
Sports book: 5dimes.eu
***: I will write a new summary page later, as i still think the odds will either lengthen some more or at least stay the same, closer to the draw date.
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Other info:
Note: there are times when it is better to back the "no jackpot" as soon as they put up odds for it, see below:
On the Mega Millions drawn on the 12/17/13, I managed to get $13^^^ for that game
^^^: At the time, I could only get $500 down at each price, so i kept backing it in until it got down to $5.00
Ticket sales were $336,545,306, it was $1 per ticket , and I think it had a 1/258,890,000 chance of being hit, at the time (which would have been about a 27.2% chance of no winner)
If i just had the $500 bet @ the $13 for that game, I would have had about a 253.6% edge (but even @ $5 the edge was about 36%)
I can't remember my exact estimate, but i think it was 30% - 35% chance of "not being hit" (this was before the actual ticket sales were known)
The reason I am writing this is, I think once the price goes above $2.00 for the "no prop" is about the time to bet on it early (instead of waiting)
Those bets lost, but I still had a huge edge ( i would love to get those odds every-time it has a 25% to 30% chance of not being hit).
The "No Jackpot Winner" for the Mega Millions went from -750 to -700,
and the "No Jackpot Winner" for the Powerball went from -1375 to -1300
Sports book: 5dimes.eu
***: I will write a new summary page later, as i still think the odds will either lengthen some more or at least stay the same, closer to the draw date.
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Other info:
Note: there are times when it is better to back the "no jackpot" as soon as they put up odds for it, see below:
On the Mega Millions drawn on the 12/17/13, I managed to get $13^^^ for that game
^^^: At the time, I could only get $500 down at each price, so i kept backing it in until it got down to $5.00
Ticket sales were $336,545,306, it was $1 per ticket , and I think it had a 1/258,890,000 chance of being hit, at the time (which would have been about a 27.2% chance of no winner)
If i just had the $500 bet @ the $13 for that game, I would have had about a 253.6% edge (but even @ $5 the edge was about 36%)
I can't remember my exact estimate, but i think it was 30% - 35% chance of "not being hit" (this was before the actual ticket sales were known)
The reason I am writing this is, I think once the price goes above $2.00 for the "no prop" is about the time to bet on it early (instead of waiting)
Those bets lost, but I still had a huge edge ( i would love to get those odds every-time it has a 25% to 30% chance of not being hit).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 25, 2019
November 26th, 2019 at 5:53:35 AM
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i live in the US.
can i play on www.5dimes.eu?
if so, is it easy to deposit and withdraw $?
can i play on www.5dimes.eu?
if so, is it easy to deposit and withdraw $?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
November 26th, 2019 at 2:56:41 PM
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From the link below, It looks like it caters to North American players,
https://www.5dimes.eu/fundingMethods.html
Bitcoin is my preferred deposit/withdrawal method, you should read the links below, before you have any bets:
https://www.5dimes.eu/helpcenter.html
and
https://www.5dimes.eu/sb_rules.html
Just doing a quick search "can us residents play at international online casinos", i found this site below:
https://www.legalzoom.com/articles/online-gambling-is-it-legal
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Summary:
Yes, you can play at 5dimes, as they currently accept US players
It is easy to deposit and withdraw using bitcoin, not sure about the other deposit/withdrawal methods.
Legality: Unsure, but from the "legalzoom.com" link above "... US citizens who simply place bets online are in the clear." (I know you didn't ask about this specifically, but you should check/research the legality yourself).
https://www.5dimes.eu/fundingMethods.html
Bitcoin is my preferred deposit/withdrawal method, you should read the links below, before you have any bets:
https://www.5dimes.eu/helpcenter.html
and
https://www.5dimes.eu/sb_rules.html
Just doing a quick search "can us residents play at international online casinos", i found this site below:
https://www.legalzoom.com/articles/online-gambling-is-it-legal
----
Summary:
Yes, you can play at 5dimes, as they currently accept US players
It is easy to deposit and withdraw using bitcoin, not sure about the other deposit/withdrawal methods.
Legality: Unsure, but from the "legalzoom.com" link above "... US citizens who simply place bets online are in the clear." (I know you didn't ask about this specifically, but you should check/research the legality yourself).
November 26th, 2019 at 3:07:07 PM
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For the next Mega Millions draw there is a high chance it is going to be +EV on the "no jackpot winner" prop.
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 11/26/2019"
Odds: -700
Estimated Tickets: 17 to 20 million (or $34 to $40 million worth of tickets)
Estimated Chance: ~93.603...% (based on 20 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +6.97...% (based on 20 million tickets sold)
"Staking Method" (1): 1/3 Kelly (use this method, if you haven't had your bet yet)
Bet Amount (1): ~ 16.3% of bank roll
"Staking Method" (2): 2/9 Kelly (use this method, if you have had about a third of your bet at the earlier price, like I did)
Bet Amount (2): ~ 10.8% of bank roll (i have already had ~5.2% of my bank roll @ the odds of -750, earlier)
Will I have a bet: yes
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 11/26/2019"
Odds: -700
Estimated Tickets: 17 to 20 million (or $34 to $40 million worth of tickets)
Estimated Chance: ~93.603...% (based on 20 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +6.97...% (based on 20 million tickets sold)
"Staking Method" (1): 1/3 Kelly (use this method, if you haven't had your bet yet)
Bet Amount (1): ~ 16.3% of bank roll
"Staking Method" (2): 2/9 Kelly (use this method, if you have had about a third of your bet at the earlier price, like I did)
Bet Amount (2): ~ 10.8% of bank roll (i have already had ~5.2% of my bank roll @ the odds of -750, earlier)
Will I have a bet: yes
November 26th, 2019 at 10:48:05 PM
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For the Mega Millions draw on the 11/26/2019, I put 1200 down to win 160, and then i put 2380 to win 340 (since i was using "bet amount (2)" mentioned in my previous post, i wanted to bet about 16.0% of my bank roll in total).
Opening Bal: 22,525
Finishing Bal: 23,025
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (2975)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 94.34...%
Odds Taken: -716 (since i had one bet @ -750, and the bigger bet @ -700)
Actual EV: ~ +7.52...%
Tickets Sold***: 17,597,900
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
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Other info:
There are currently no odds up for the next Mega Millions draw, if they put up +EV odds again, my "raw" sales estimate is going to be, 18 million tickets (+/1 a million) and i will probably use 20.5 million tickets as the figure to work out my estimated chances for the "no jackpot winner"(since i prefer my estimate to be over the actual ticket sales, when betting on this prop)
I will update the post for the Powerball being drawn on the 11/27/2019 closer to game time (about 12-15 hours from now)
Note: as of this post, you can still get -1300 for the "no jackpot winner" prop
Opening Bal: 22,525
Finishing Bal: 23,025
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (2975)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 94.34...%
Odds Taken: -716 (since i had one bet @ -750, and the bigger bet @ -700)
Actual EV: ~ +7.52...%
Tickets Sold***: 17,597,900
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
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Other info:
There are currently no odds up for the next Mega Millions draw, if they put up +EV odds again, my "raw" sales estimate is going to be, 18 million tickets (+/1 a million) and i will probably use 20.5 million tickets as the figure to work out my estimated chances for the "no jackpot winner"(since i prefer my estimate to be over the actual ticket sales, when betting on this prop)
I will update the post for the Powerball being drawn on the 11/27/2019 closer to game time (about 12-15 hours from now)
Note: as of this post, you can still get -1300 for the "no jackpot winner" prop
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 26, 2019
November 27th, 2019 at 12:20:31 PM
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For the next Powerball draw there is a good chance it is going to be +EV on the "no jackpot winner" prop.
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 11/27/2019"
Odds: -1300
Estimated Tickets: 12 to 13 million (or $24 to $26 million worth of tickets)
Estimated Chance: ~95.64...% (based on 13 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +3.00...% (based on 13 million tickets sold)
"Staking Method" (1): 1/3 Kelly (use this method, if you haven't had your bet yet)
Bet Amount (1): ~ 13% of bank roll
"Staking Method" (2): 3/13 Kelly (use this method, if you have had about 30% of your bet at the earlier price, like I did)
Bet Amount (2): ~9% of bank roll at the current odds (i have already had ~4% of my bank roll @ the odds of -1375, earlier)
Will I have a bet: yes
Note: this is my updated sales estimate for the Powerball (my earlier one was, 11.1 million tickets (+/- 1 million tickets)
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Other info:
For at least the next couple of rolls, I will probably bet "late" if there are still +EV opportunities, since the current trend at 5d seems to be to "increase or at least don't change the no prop odds closer to the draw date".
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Update (~1250 pm)
for the next Mega Millions, they just put up -550 for the no prop, so that looks like it will be good value*** again.
***: ~+10.4% EV (based on 20.5 million tickets)
I will put up a proper summary closer to the draw date.
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 11/27/2019"
Odds: -1300
Estimated Tickets: 12 to 13 million (or $24 to $26 million worth of tickets)
Estimated Chance: ~95.64...% (based on 13 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +3.00...% (based on 13 million tickets sold)
"Staking Method" (1): 1/3 Kelly (use this method, if you haven't had your bet yet)
Bet Amount (1): ~ 13% of bank roll
"Staking Method" (2): 3/13 Kelly (use this method, if you have had about 30% of your bet at the earlier price, like I did)
Bet Amount (2): ~9% of bank roll at the current odds (i have already had ~4% of my bank roll @ the odds of -1375, earlier)
Will I have a bet: yes
Note: this is my updated sales estimate for the Powerball (my earlier one was, 11.1 million tickets (+/- 1 million tickets)
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Other info:
For at least the next couple of rolls, I will probably bet "late" if there are still +EV opportunities, since the current trend at 5d seems to be to "increase or at least don't change the no prop odds closer to the draw date".
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Update (~1250 pm)
for the next Mega Millions, they just put up -550 for the no prop, so that looks like it will be good value*** again.
***: ~+10.4% EV (based on 20.5 million tickets)
I will put up a proper summary closer to the draw date.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 27, 2019
November 27th, 2019 at 5:48:29 PM
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Just a quick update:
The odds for the "No jackpot winner" in this Powerball is now: -1200
Estimated EV: ~ +3.6%
Bet Amount (1): ~ 14.4% of bank roll
Bet Amount (2): have about 14.4% of your bank roll less any % of your bank roll you may have already bet at the earlier price(s), see example below:
eg: if you bet 4% of your bank roll earlier, then bet about 10.4% of your bank roll at the new price.
FYI: I will be away from my pc for a couple of hours, so my next update will probably be a results update.
The odds for the "No jackpot winner" in this Powerball is now: -1200
Estimated EV: ~ +3.6%
Bet Amount (1): ~ 14.4% of bank roll
Bet Amount (2): have about 14.4% of your bank roll less any % of your bank roll you may have already bet at the earlier price(s), see example below:
eg: if you bet 4% of your bank roll earlier, then bet about 10.4% of your bank roll at the new price.
FYI: I will be away from my pc for a couple of hours, so my next update will probably be a results update.
November 27th, 2019 at 9:05:46 PM
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why did you choose 14.4%? (that's 1/7)Quote: ksdjdjJust a quick update:
The odds for the "No jackpot winner" in this Powerball is now: -1200
Estimated EV: ~ +3.6%
Bet Amount (1): ~ 14.4% of bank roll
Bet Amount (2): have about 14.4% of your bank roll less any % of your bank roll you may have already bet at the earlier price(s), see example below:
eg: if you bet 4% of your bank roll earlier, then bet about 10.4% of your bank roll at the new price.
FYI: I will be away from my pc for a couple of hours, so my next update will probably be a results update.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
November 27th, 2019 at 10:03:32 PM
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Quote: 100xOddswhy did you choose 14.4%? (that's 1/7)
Because it is about 1/3 Kelly^^^ , which is ("estimated ev" / (1/12)) / 3 = (3.6/0.083333...) / 3 = 14.4 %
Note: The simple kelly formula is, EV / odds, where EV is expressed as a "%" and odds are converted to a " to one" basis (then you just divide the figure you got in that simple formula by 2, 3, 5..., to give you a "safer" bet).
^^^there are plenty of pages out there about the Kelly formula, i think this one below is pretty good, as i found it easy to understand (at least compared to the Wikipedia one).
https://www.fool.com/investing/value/2006/10/31/how-to-calculate-the-kelly-formula.aspx
Note: doing "fractional Kelly" eg, "1/2 or 1/3 Kelly" is a lot safer than doing "full Kelly", "...a Kelly bettor has a 1/3 chance of halving a bankroll before doubling it..." and "...a “half kelly” bettor only has a 1/9 chance of halving their bankroll before doubling it."
See link >>> https://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/ >>>> then scroll down to "More Information"
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For the Powerball draw on the 11/27/2019, I put 907.5 down to win 66, and then i put 2067 to win 159 (since i was using "bet amount (2)" mentioned in an earlier post, i wanted to bet about 13.0% of my bank roll in total).
Opening Bal: 23,025
Finishing Bal: 23,250
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (2,750)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 95.65...%
Odds Taken: -1322 (since i had one bet @ -1375, and the bigger bet @ -1300)
Actual EV: ~ +2.88...%
Tickets Sold***: 12,991,538
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
note: i had my bets down at -1375 and -1300 , so the 14.4% bank roll recommendation was only true if you "held off" on any early bets and then managed to get the -1200 odds that were available closer to game time
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 28, 2019
November 27th, 2019 at 10:30:17 PM
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For the next Mega Millions draw there is a good chance it is going to be +EV on the "no jackpot winner" prop.
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 11/29/19"
Odds: -550
Estimated Tickets: 17.5 to 20.5 million (or $35 to $41 million worth of tickets)
Estimated Chance: ~93.44...% (based on 20.5 million tickets)
Estimated EV: ~ +10.44...% (based on 20.5 million tickets)
"Staking Method": 1/3 Kelly
Bet Amount: ~ 19.1% of bank roll (if you decide to bet now)
Will I have a bet: yes, but not yet***
***: The trend seems to be that the odds get bigger for the "no prop" the longer you wait, so I will try and have my bet as close to the draw time as allowed^*^
^*^: 5d close betting about 30 minutes before the draw, so I will probably have my bet 1 hour to 1.5 hours before the draw (at least at the moment)
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Other info:
I will put up a betting summary for the next Powerball a lot closer to the draw date
Note: 5d have been known in the past to not put up odds for every draw, so if that happens I won't bother putting up my ticket estimates.
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 11/29/19"
Odds: -550
Estimated Tickets: 17.5 to 20.5 million (or $35 to $41 million worth of tickets)
Estimated Chance: ~93.44...% (based on 20.5 million tickets)
Estimated EV: ~ +10.44...% (based on 20.5 million tickets)
"Staking Method": 1/3 Kelly
Bet Amount: ~ 19.1% of bank roll (if you decide to bet now)
Will I have a bet: yes, but not yet***
***: The trend seems to be that the odds get bigger for the "no prop" the longer you wait, so I will try and have my bet as close to the draw time as allowed^*^
^*^: 5d close betting about 30 minutes before the draw, so I will probably have my bet 1 hour to 1.5 hours before the draw (at least at the moment)
---
Other info:
I will put up a betting summary for the next Powerball a lot closer to the draw date
Note: 5d have been known in the past to not put up odds for every draw, so if that happens I won't bother putting up my ticket estimates.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 27, 2019
November 28th, 2019 at 4:21:49 AM
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Sorry for the late arrival.
I can confirm the 5dimes odds at the time of this post are:
Yes+425
No -550
The odds of hitting the MegaMillions and PowerBall are pretty similar so I'm going to assume ticket sales are about the same for both. That said, I show a relationship between jackpot size and ticket sales is exponential, up to jackpots of about half a billion, in my PowerBall page.
In particular, if j is the jackpot size (in millions), then ticket sales (in millions) can be estimated as 7.9034*exp(0.0056*j).
That formula gives us ticket sales of 30.8 million.
The probability of hitting the MegaMillions is 1/302,575,350. So the probability of nobody winning, assuming all quick picks is (1-1/302,575,350)^30,800,000 = 0.9032. That makes the "no winner" fair at -933.
They do update the jackpot size about twice a day, as I recall, so the fair price could drop.
Perhaps I'll look at actual MegaMillions sales data, as opposed to the PowerBall estimate.
I can confirm the 5dimes odds at the time of this post are:
Yes+425
No -550
The odds of hitting the MegaMillions and PowerBall are pretty similar so I'm going to assume ticket sales are about the same for both. That said, I show a relationship between jackpot size and ticket sales is exponential, up to jackpots of about half a billion, in my PowerBall page.
In particular, if j is the jackpot size (in millions), then ticket sales (in millions) can be estimated as 7.9034*exp(0.0056*j).
That formula gives us ticket sales of 30.8 million.
The probability of hitting the MegaMillions is 1/302,575,350. So the probability of nobody winning, assuming all quick picks is (1-1/302,575,350)^30,800,000 = 0.9032. That makes the "no winner" fair at -933.
They do update the jackpot size about twice a day, as I recall, so the fair price could drop.
Perhaps I'll look at actual MegaMillions sales data, as opposed to the PowerBall estimate.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 28th, 2019 at 8:35:01 AM
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To expand on my last post, I did some analysis based on actual MegaMillions sales. As with Powerball, the relationship between jackpot and sales is exponential, up to a point. When jackpots get to about the half billion range, the relationship becomes logarithmic. It is rather arbitrary where to separate the two, but here is how I did it.
For jackpots under $400 million:
t = 8.56*exp(0.002862*j)
For jackpots over $400 million:
t = 264.7*ln(j) - 1581.
Where j = jackpot size(in million) and t = number of tickets sold (in millions)
Putting in the current jackpot of $243 million gives us an estimate of 17.16 million ticket sales.
Using the same math as my last post, that suggests a probability of somebody hitting the jackpot of 5.51%, which equates to a fair line on the "no" of -1714.
For jackpots under $400 million:
t = 8.56*exp(0.002862*j)
For jackpots over $400 million:
t = 264.7*ln(j) - 1581.
Where j = jackpot size(in million) and t = number of tickets sold (in millions)
Putting in the current jackpot of $243 million gives us an estimate of 17.16 million ticket sales.
Using the same math as my last post, that suggests a probability of somebody hitting the jackpot of 5.51%, which equates to a fair line on the "no" of -1714.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 28th, 2019 at 9:47:19 AM
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Mike, ks....
Serious question.... whenever something looks too good to be true I try and find something that isn't apparent. WHY do you guys think that there would be such a misquided line for these bets? Is there a giant bias towards people betting the yes on such bets, regardless of EV?
Serious question.... whenever something looks too good to be true I try and find something that isn't apparent. WHY do you guys think that there would be such a misquided line for these bets? Is there a giant bias towards people betting the yes on such bets, regardless of EV?
November 28th, 2019 at 1:03:32 PM
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Quote: SOOPOO... WHY do you guys think that there would be such a misquided line for these bets? Is there a giant bias towards people betting the yes on such bets, regardless of EV?
I personally think there is a big bias towards the public betting the yes on these bets.
Reasons/observations:
1(a): The public must be betting on the Yes prop more than the No prop, because I can't think of any other reason why they would generally reduce the Yes prop odds/increase the No odds the closer you get to the draw (at least for the "Early Jackpot Rolls").
1(b): When they first brought the product out, I think they used to advertise something like "now you can bet on the outcome of the PB and MM, SHARE IN THE CELEBRATION OF THE JACKPOT BEING WON BY BETTING ON THE YES..."
In short, they were heavily advertising the "yes side", but they still offered both bets on the yes and the no (so they were trying to appeal to/entice the public to mainly bet on the "yes" ?)
2: Generally for "Prop" bets, the no is the better bet, I think the Wiz has said something about this on his site,
I can't remember where it was on the site, but I think this is true more often than not.
3 (Least likely reason, but possible); They could still think that a ticket is worth only a $1? (dubious)
This would reduce the chance of the No prop quite a bit, but there will still be some slightly + EV plays on the No,
If the tickets were $1 per ticket for the last MM draw my estimated EV would have been. ~ +0.1% and the real EV would have been ~ +1.7%, at the -700 offered.
4 (least important, but still interesting to me): The "no prop" is becoming +EV, a lot earlier in the jackpot roll, compared to in the past.
In the past I would see an estimated No prop EV of between -2% to +2% for jackpots under $200 million (so I wouldn't bother looking at it, until the jackpot was at least $200 million, back then).
Note: I know the MM is above $200 mil , but the PB is only just passing the $100 mil and I can get "good value" no prop bets on that one at the moment, too.
Getting a bit of a fever, and I am not the best at writing even when well, so hope the above makes sense, because I have not checked it for any mistakes (sorry).
-------------------
In case I am too sick to want to write about the next powerball, here is a link below that will give you a very good ticket sales estimate (remember to divide ticket sales in $ by 2, since it is $2 per ticket).
https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Games/Powerball/Estimated_Jackpot.html
>>> then click on "view" under "Official Lottery Estimation Worksheet" and once you have clicked "view", the ticket estimate in $'s will be under the heading "sales".
NB: on the day of the draw, they do a new "sales estimate", so you should have a look at that one as well ( more often than not, it is the "better/more accurate" estimate).
I will probably still write a small post of what the current odds are when 5d put up the odds (but let someone else work out the "chance and EV" for the next PB draw).
My ticket sales for the next PB draw, will probably be: 12.25 to 13.75 million (so I would use 13.75 million as the figure for "chance calculations" when betting on the no prop).
November 28th, 2019 at 1:47:11 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOMike, ks....
Serious question.... whenever something looks too good to be true I try and find something that isn't apparent. WHY do you guys think that there would be such a misquided line for these bets? Is there a giant bias towards people betting the yes on such bets, regardless of EV?
Good question. We see these kind of bets every year in the Superbowl, most infamously the "no safety." Recreational gamblers hate laying steep odds and they like to bet on things TO happen. It creates value the other way.
I had about $300 only in my 5Dimes account and bet it all on "no winner."
Would you be interested in honoring the 5Dimes lines?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 29th, 2019 at 9:36:40 AM
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so if the line moves, you keep the same odds as when you bought the ticket?Quote: WizardGood question. We see these kind of bets every year in the Superbowl, most infamously the "no safety." Recreational gamblers hate laying steep odds and they like to bet on things TO happen. It creates value the other way.
I had about $300 only in my 5Dimes account and bet it all on "no winner."
Would you be interested in honoring the 5Dimes lines?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
November 29th, 2019 at 12:03:48 PM
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Quote: 100xOddsso if the line moves, you keep the same odds as when you bought the ticket?
Yes, you get to keep the same odds as when you bought the ticket.
As far a I know the only time(s) they ever change the odds / cancel the ticket is if:
"Immediately upon discovery, wagers placed on an event with an obvious erroneous line resulting from human error will be graded no action or voided...
...If a wager with an erroneous line is not voided before the game/play begins, Management reserves the right to remedy the odds to a fair market price which would have been available at the time the wager was placed.... Repeat offenders will not be tolerated."
Note: the above has never happened to me, for my normal or lotto bets (i have been betting on the MM and PB results since ~2012 with 5d)
Note 2: the above (or similar) is a fairly standard rule for international-online sports books (I don't know if this rule is standard for US-online books?)
--------
Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 11/29/19"
Odds: -550
Estimated Tickets: 17.5 to 20.5 million (or $35 to $41 million worth of tickets)
Estimated Chance: ~93.44...% (based on 20.5 million tickets)
Estimated EV: ~ +10.44...% (based on 20.5 million tickets)
"Staking Method": 1/3 Kelly
Bet Amount: ~ 19.1% of bank roll
Will I have a bet: yes***
***: At the time of this post the odds are still -550, and I will be away from my PC for the next 14-15 hours so I will have my bet now (if i had access to my PC later, then I would have waited a bit longer^^^, see below)
^^^:5d close betting about 30 minutes before the draw, so I will probably have my bet 1 hour to 1.5 hours before the draw (at least at the moment)
-----
Other info:
There are still no odds up for PB, below is a brief summary for the "no jackpot winner" (in case they put it up later)
Game: Powerball
Date: 11/30/19
Prop: "no jackpot winner" (if/when it becomes available)
Est Tickets: 12.25 to 13.75 million
Est chance: ~ 95.403...% (based on 13.75 mil tickets)
The above chance converted to "fair" odds: about -2075
Minimum odds needed, (before I would have a bet): -1350
Note: I have said this before, but it is not strange for 5dimes to miss a draw (after they miss a draw, the odds can sometimes go back to what you would expect them to be^*^)
^*^: The odds may become - EV for both the "yes" and the "no" prop, see example:
Eg: for the draw after the next PB game, they could put up -3000 for "no", and +1500 for "yes" (i have seen something similar to this before).
November 29th, 2019 at 2:57:44 PM
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Quote: 100xOddsso if the line moves, you keep the same odds as when you bought the ticket?
Yes.
In other news, I just updated my Power Ball data and created a little calculate the probability of a jackpot for any jackpot size in the Power Ball or MegaMillions. Please give my Lottery Jackpot Ticket Sales Calculator a try. I welcome all comments.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 30th, 2019 at 2:43:20 AM
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For the Mega Millins draw on the 11/29/2019, I put 4,455 down to win 810, I planned to bet about 19.1% of my bank roll.
Opening Bal: 23,250
Finishing Bal: 24,060
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (1,940)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 94.71...%
Odds Taken: -550
Actual EV: +11.94...%
Tickets Sold***: 16,414,337
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
----
Other info:
No odds up yet for the next lotto draws (not uncommon for 5d to miss a draw, I have mentioned something like this before)
Opening Bal: 23,250
Finishing Bal: 24,060
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (1,940)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 94.71...%
Odds Taken: -550
Actual EV: +11.94...%
Tickets Sold***: 16,414,337
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
----
Other info:
No odds up yet for the next lotto draws (not uncommon for 5d to miss a draw, I have mentioned something like this before)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 30, 2019
November 30th, 2019 at 3:10:19 AM
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Quote: Wizard... Please give my Lottery Jackpot Ticket Sales Calculator a try. I welcome all comments.
Good: Easy to use and quick.
Looks quite accurate to me for jackpots $440 million (and under) for Mega Millions, and for jackpots $290 million (and under) for Powerball.
"Not as good": To me it seems a bit "wonky" once the jackpot rises past the amounts mentioned above (i could be wrong, as i only quickly looked at this years' draws and ticket sales )
Note: In fairness there is probably a lot more data available for $40 m to $400 m jackpots, then there is for $400 m to $1,500 m jackpots
Overall: I would personally use the calculator for the next few draws, especially if I don't have time to estimate the ticket sales myself, as it is a lot faster/easier using the calculator.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 30, 2019
November 30th, 2019 at 11:19:22 AM
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Here are my bets for the next draws
Note: Some time between now and my last post they put up MM and PB lotto odds (I live in a Australia, so I only just woke up).
----
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 11/30/19"
Odds: -1100
Estimated Tickets: 12.25 to 13.75^^^ million (or $24.5 to $27.5 million worth of tickets)
Estimated Chance: 95.403...% (based on 13.75 million tickets)
Estimated EV: +4.076...% (based on 13.75 million tickets)
"Staking Method": 1/3 Kelly
Bet Amount: ~ 14.9% of bank roll
Will I have a bet: yes
^^^: Since I have already done the work for it, I didn't use the figure of 14.37 million tickets from the Wiz's calculator (based on a PB jackpot of $110 million)
----
Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/03/19"
Odds: -500
Estimated Tickets: 17.35*** to 19.35*** million (or $34.7 to $38.7 million worth of tickets)
Estimated Chance: 93.805...% (based on 19.35 million tickets)
Estimated EV: +12.566...% (based on 19.35 million tickets)
"Staking Method": 1/3 Kelly
Bet Amount: ~ 20.9% of bank roll
Will I have a bet: yes (half now, and half closer to the time of the draw).
***: Since I haven't done any work/research on this one, I used the figure of 18.33 million tickets obtained from the Wiz's calculator as the "middle" amount for the above "estimated tickets" (I used $266 million as the jackpot)
Note: Some time between now and my last post they put up MM and PB lotto odds (I live in a Australia, so I only just woke up).
----
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 11/30/19"
Odds: -1100
Estimated Tickets: 12.25 to 13.75^^^ million (or $24.5 to $27.5 million worth of tickets)
Estimated Chance: 95.403...% (based on 13.75 million tickets)
Estimated EV: +4.076...% (based on 13.75 million tickets)
"Staking Method": 1/3 Kelly
Bet Amount: ~ 14.9% of bank roll
Will I have a bet: yes
^^^: Since I have already done the work for it, I didn't use the figure of 14.37 million tickets from the Wiz's calculator (based on a PB jackpot of $110 million)
----
Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/03/19"
Odds: -500
Estimated Tickets: 17.35*** to 19.35*** million (or $34.7 to $38.7 million worth of tickets)
Estimated Chance: 93.805...% (based on 19.35 million tickets)
Estimated EV: +12.566...% (based on 19.35 million tickets)
"Staking Method": 1/3 Kelly
Bet Amount: ~ 20.9% of bank roll
Will I have a bet: yes (half now, and half closer to the time of the draw).
***: Since I haven't done any work/research on this one, I used the figure of 18.33 million tickets obtained from the Wiz's calculator as the "middle" amount for the above "estimated tickets" (I used $266 million as the jackpot)
November 30th, 2019 at 11:54:58 AM
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The next drawing is the Powerball today at 10:30.
Jackpot = 110 million
Chance of winner = 4.64%
5 Dimes line on no = -1100
Fair line = -2055
Player advantage = 4.03%
I've got $406 only in my account and will throw it all on it.
Jackpot = 110 million
Chance of winner = 4.64%
5 Dimes line on no = -1100
Fair line = -2055
Player advantage = 4.03%
I've got $406 only in my account and will throw it all on it.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 30th, 2019 at 3:10:12 PM
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Quote: WizardThe next drawing is the Powerball today at 10:30.
Jackpot = 110 million
Chance of winner = 4.64%
5 Dimes line on no = -1100
Fair line = -2055
Player advantage = 4.03%
I've got $406 only in my account and will throw it all on it.
Is it ever the case that the player edge is with betting on Yes there will be a winner ?
November 30th, 2019 at 4:01:25 PM
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Quote: michael99000Is it ever the case that the player edge is with betting on Yes there will be a winner ?
No, so far i have never seen a player edge on the "Yes there will be a winner".
November 30th, 2019 at 9:30:36 PM
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For the Powerball draw on the 11/30/2019, I put 3,630 down to win 330, I planned to bet about 14.9% of my bank roll.
Opening Bal: 24,060
Finishing Bal: 24,390
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (1,610)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 95.76...%
Odds Taken: -1100
Actual EV: +4.47...%
Tickets Sold***: 12,635,365
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
----
Other info:
To work out an estimate for the next Powerball draw, I will probably use a combination of the links below:
https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Documents/jackpotestimates/pb20191130.pdf
>>>> Look under the column "sales" for the draw on the 2/04/19, and then divide by 2 to get a ticket estimate (because sales are in $'s, and tickets cost $2 per ticket).
and
https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/
>>>> Type in 120 in the cell next to "Jackpot size (in millions):" , then click on "Powerball", the "Tickets sold (in millions):" cell should then say "14.76 ",
It then says the esimated "Probability of winner(s)" is "4.76%", so the estimated probability of no jackpot winner is about 95.24%***
***: I will probably use 95.24% as my estimated chance for the next draw.
I will write a "bet summary", if/when 5d put up odds for the next Powerball
---
Update (about 1040 pm)
If you have never bet with 5dimes before, they can be a bit slow^^^ in "grading" props like the ones in this thread.
If you are in a hurry to get your winnings, you can contact live help, and they will usually speed up the payout.
^^^: This is the only type of bet I have with them that they can be slow to grade (all standard bets, eg NFL "spread bets" are graded very quickly, in my experience).
---
Update 2 (about 1140 pm, Pac Time)
I checked my account an hour later, and the bet has now been successfully graded/settled (the ticket says it was graded 12/1/19 2:19am, EST)
Opening Bal: 24,060
Finishing Bal: 24,390
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (1,610)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 95.76...%
Odds Taken: -1100
Actual EV: +4.47...%
Tickets Sold***: 12,635,365
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
----
Other info:
To work out an estimate for the next Powerball draw, I will probably use a combination of the links below:
https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Documents/jackpotestimates/pb20191130.pdf
>>>> Look under the column "sales" for the draw on the 2/04/19, and then divide by 2 to get a ticket estimate (because sales are in $'s, and tickets cost $2 per ticket).
and
https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/
>>>> Type in 120 in the cell next to "Jackpot size (in millions):" , then click on "Powerball", the "Tickets sold (in millions):" cell should then say "14.76 ",
It then says the esimated "Probability of winner(s)" is "4.76%", so the estimated probability of no jackpot winner is about 95.24%***
***: I will probably use 95.24% as my estimated chance for the next draw.
I will write a "bet summary", if/when 5d put up odds for the next Powerball
---
Update (about 1040 pm)
If you have never bet with 5dimes before, they can be a bit slow^^^ in "grading" props like the ones in this thread.
If you are in a hurry to get your winnings, you can contact live help, and they will usually speed up the payout.
^^^: This is the only type of bet I have with them that they can be slow to grade (all standard bets, eg NFL "spread bets" are graded very quickly, in my experience).
---
Update 2 (about 1140 pm, Pac Time)
I checked my account an hour later, and the bet has now been successfully graded/settled (the ticket says it was graded 12/1/19 2:19am, EST)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 1, 2019
December 1st, 2019 at 1:46:29 AM
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Quote: Wizard... Please give my Lottery Jackpot Ticket Sales Calculator a try. I welcome all comments.
Comments (part 2):
I just did a bit more testing and realized I get a different figure to you for your Powerball "probability of winners(s)" figure
I think your calculator is using the "Mega millions" chances for when you hit the "Power Ball" button
For example: when I type in "Jackpot size (in millions): 1000" and then click the "Power Ball" button, it says: "Probability of winner(s): 71.52%" ***
***: when i do it manually with the same tickets sold figure I get, ~72.76%. (as the "Probability of winner(s)" figure)
Note: For Mega Millions I get the same "Probability of winner(s):" figure as your calculator (after rounding to the nearest 0.01% )
December 1st, 2019 at 5:22:41 AM
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Quote: ksdjdjQuote: Wizard... Please give my Lottery Jackpot Ticket Sales Calculator a try. I welcome all comments.
Comments (part 2):
I just did a bit more testing and realized I get a different figure to you for your Powerball "probability of winners(s)" figure
I think your calculator is using the "Mega millions" chances for when you hit the "Power Ball" button
For example: when I type in "Jackpot size (in millions): 1000" and then click the "Power Ball" button, it says: "Probability of winner(s): 71.52%" ***
***: when i do it manually with the same tickets sold figure I get, ~72.76%. (as the "Probability of winner(s)" figure)
Note: For Mega Millions I get the same "Probability of winner(s):" figure as your calculator (after rounding to the nearest 0.01% )
For a jackpot of a billion, my calculator gets:
PowerBall: 71.52%
Mega Millions: 88%
There have been only four jackpots over 900M, so any figures for jackpots that high should be taken with a grain of salt. In fact here is the actual data:
MegaMillions:
$1,537,000 jackpot -- 370,000,000 ticket sales
$1,000,000 jackpot -- 280,000 ticket sales
Power Ball:
$1,580,000 jackpot -- 635,000,000 ticket sales
$947,000 jackpot -- 440,000,000 ticket sales
So, I think my calculator is functioning as I intended. You might argue that I made a mistake in my formulas, which I could take for jackpots that big.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
December 1st, 2019 at 5:29:36 AM
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The next drawing is on Tuesday for MegaMillions. Here are the details:
Jackpot = 266M
Estimated probability of winner = 5.88%
Fair line on no winner = -1600
5dimes lines:
Winner +400
No winner -500
Player advantage on no winner = 12.94%
My 5dimes balance is $443 and I'm go to all on on the no. Might try to move some more money into it. Anyone want to sell me Bitcoin?
Jackpot = 266M
Estimated probability of winner = 5.88%
Fair line on no winner = -1600
5dimes lines:
Winner +400
No winner -500
Player advantage on no winner = 12.94%
My 5dimes balance is $443 and I'm go to all on on the no. Might try to move some more money into it. Anyone want to sell me Bitcoin?
Quote: 5dimes
59873****-1 12/1/19 8:31am $443.00 $88.60 Pending 12/3/19 10:30pm Lotto Other Sports 2 No Jackpot Winner 12/03/19 -500* vs Mega Millions Jackpot Winner 12/03/19
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
December 1st, 2019 at 8:57:03 AM
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Perhaps 5dimes is following here. Lines are now adjusted to: Winner +475, No winner -650
$1700, 18, 19, 1920, 40, 60,... :/ Thx 'Do it again'. I'll try
December 1st, 2019 at 9:22:16 AM
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Quote: WizardQuote: ksdjdjQuote: Wizard... Please give my Lottery Jackpot Ticket Sales Calculator a try. I welcome all comments.
Comments (part 2):
I just did a bit more testing and realized I get a different figure to you for your Powerball "probability of winners(s)" figure
I think your calculator is using the "Mega millions" chances for when you hit the "Power Ball" button
For example: when I type in "Jackpot size (in millions): 1000" and then click the "Power Ball" button, it says: "Probability of winner(s): 71.52%" ***
***: when i do it manually with the same tickets sold figure I get, ~72.76%. (as the "Probability of winner(s)" figure)
Note: For Mega Millions I get the same "Probability of winner(s):" figure as your calculator (after rounding to the nearest 0.01% )
For a jackpot of a billion, my calculator gets:
PowerBall: 71.52%
Mega Millions: 88%...
When doing manual calculations I still get the figures below:
1. With 379.99 million tickets sold I still get 72.75...% estimated chance for hitting the Powerball (about 1/292.2 million chance*** per ticket)
2. With 247.56 million tickets sold I still get 55.876...% estimated chance for hitting the Mega Millions (about 1/302.6 million chance*** per ticket)
***: I still think the calculator is using ~1/302.6 million chance for both calculations ?
Note: for "1" and "2" above, I used 1000 (a billion) as the Jackpot size,when using the "ticket sales calculator".
Also note: the calculator gets 55.88% for Mega Millions, so that is why I said before, that we get the same chance figure to the "nearest 0.01%", for that one.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 1, 2019
December 1st, 2019 at 9:53:13 AM
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Quote: MoosetonPerhaps 5dimes is following here. Lines are now adjusted to: Winner +475, No winner -650
Yes, anything is possible.
Personally I think it is normal, as 5d seem to "reset" the prices every so often ( I have seen it plenty of times before).
Note: I was actually very surprised that the "no prop" was +EV at such a "low" jackpot (in the past, a 250 to 350 million jackpot was the point to start looking for potential EV for the "no prop")
----
Bet Summary (update)
Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/03/19"
Odds: -650
Estimated Tickets: 17.35 to 19.35 million (or $34.7 to $38.7 million worth of tickets)
Estimated Chance: 93.805...% (based on 19.35 million tickets)
Estimated EV: +8.23...% (based on 19.35 million tickets)
"Staking Method": 1/3 Kelly in total (I already had "half" my bet at -500, so I will use 0.5 x 1/3 Kelly for this part of my bet)
Bet Amount: ~ 17.8% of bank roll (or ~8.9%, if you already had "half" your bet at -500, like me).
Will I have a bet: yes
-----
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/04/19"
Odds: -1200
Estimated Tickets: up to 14.75 million (or $29.5 million worth of tickets)
Estimated Chance: 95.07...% (based on 14.75 million tickets)
Estimated EV: +3.00...% (based on 14.75 million tickets)
"Staking Method": 1/3 Kelly
Bet Amount: ~ 12% of bank roll
Will I have a bet: yes (not trying to "outsmart" potential line changes anymore, so I am having all of my bet on now).
December 1st, 2019 at 4:53:00 PM
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Quote: ksdjdj***: I still think the calculator is using ~1/302.6 million chance for both calculations ?
You're absolutely right. Thank you for the corrections. Perhaps I misunderstood your point before.
I just fixed it, please give it another try.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
December 1st, 2019 at 5:13:16 PM
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Quote: ksdjdj
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/04/19"
Odds: -1200
Estimated Tickets: up to 14.75 million (or $29.5 million worth of tickets)
Estimated Chance: 95.07...% (based on 14.75 million tickets)
Estimated EV: +3.00...% (based on 14.75 million tickets)
Let's have a look:
Next drawing: Dec 4
Jackpot: 120M
5 Dimes lines:
Yes +775
No -1200
Probability of winner: 4.93%
Fair line on no: -1928
Player advantage: 2.99%
So, we're dead on. Did you do your own math on the probability of winning?
I think I'm going to bet $100 per 1% of advantage. So $300 on this one.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
December 1st, 2019 at 6:23:49 PM
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Quote: Wizard...I just fixed it, please give it another try.
Looks good to me : )
December 1st, 2019 at 7:28:55 PM
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Quote: Wizard... Did you do your own math on the probability of winning?
I used your calculator to work out an "upper ticket estimate" for the next PB draw (I think i also used it to work out the "middle" figure for the MM).
I rounded the figure in your calculator to the nearest 0.05 million
Reasons why I use or like using your calculator:
1. I like to do things the easiest way possible (probably like a lot of people),
2. I think it is accurate, especially for jackpots under $450 million (I know that data is limited for bigger jackpots).
3. It seems to be very close to what I would get as my "middle or upper" limit in ticket estimate(s)
(I like my estimate to be on or a bit over the actual ticket sales when betting on the no jackpot winner).
Lastly, if i didn't use your calculator for this PB draw, I would have probably used 13 to 14.5 million tickets, so about a 95.15..% chance of no jackpot (using the 14.5 million ticket estimate)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 1, 2019
December 2nd, 2019 at 2:02:32 PM
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The "no jackpot winner" for MM has gone from -650 to -550 since my last "bet summary" post about it.
The "no jackpot winner" for PB has gone from -1200 to -1165 since my last "bet summary" post about it.
Note: The "recreational punters" must be backing the "yes" side again.
----
Expanding on the "Kelly staking method" , mentioned in an earlier post, the steps to work out a "Kelly staking amount" yourself are below
Note : I am using MM draw on the 12/03/19, and 93.8% as the estimated chance of NOT being won
Note 2: : Kelly = EV / "odds" and then divide that amount by 3 (if you want to bet "1/3 Kelly" like me)
Note 3: "odds" are expressed as " to one" (so must be converted from American odds)
1. Work out/look up an "estimated chance" for the "No jackpot winner" (in this case ~93.8%)
2. Find out what the current odds are in "American" (currently -550)
3. Work out the estimated RTP*** by multiplying the figures from step "1" and "2" together (93.8% x 650/550)
***: RTP means estimated "return to player"
4. Take away 100% from the figure obtain in "3" above to work out the EV (110.85...% - 100% = +10.85...% EV)
5. Work out what the "full Kelly bet" should be by dividing the edge by the odds (10.85% EV / 0.1818... = 59.7%)
6. From the above, you then divide it by 3 ^^^ to get "1/3 kelly" (59.7% / 3 = 19.9%)
^^^: You don't have to bet "1/3 Kelly" I just picked that to make the bet "safer", you can bet 1/2 or 1/4 "Kelly" as just some other examples of making the bet "safer" in the "medium term" ( as long as you never bet MORE than "full Kelly")
7. The figure obtained in step "6." is what you should bet (as a % of your current "betting bank roll")
So from using the above steps, you should now be able to work out how much to bet in total
Important: In "step 3/4" I used a way I find easier to calculate the EV (the more "universal" way for working out EV would be below^*^):
("chance of winning x odds (to one)" ) - "chance of losing" = EV
(93.8% x 0.1818...) - 6.2% = 17.05454... - 6.2% = 10.85...%
^*^ You MUST use this method (or an expanded version*^* of it) for:
(i) Any game/sport where your bet has a chance of a "push/tie" (baccarat, is just one example)
(ii) Any game/sport where your bet can be increased or decreased ( "let it ride", is just one example)
(iii) Any game that pays "increased odds" the more "unlikely" a player hand is ("let it ride", is one example of this as well)
*^*: The "Banker Bet - 8 decks" table in the baccarat link is one example of point (i) and the "Let it Ride — Standard Pay Table" (just under "Analysis") in the let it ride link is an example of points (ii) and (iii) (see below)
https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/basics/#toc-Odds
https://wizardofodds.com/games/let-it-ride/
----
Hope this is easy to understand and helpful.
Note: if it is not "easy to understand" , maybe someone with better communication/writing skills can write a better one in a new post.
(Even I think this is "Tl;dr", lol)
The "no jackpot winner" for PB has gone from -1200 to -1165 since my last "bet summary" post about it.
Note: The "recreational punters" must be backing the "yes" side again.
----
Expanding on the "Kelly staking method" , mentioned in an earlier post, the steps to work out a "Kelly staking amount" yourself are below
Note : I am using MM draw on the 12/03/19, and 93.8% as the estimated chance of NOT being won
Note 2: : Kelly = EV / "odds" and then divide that amount by 3 (if you want to bet "1/3 Kelly" like me)
Note 3: "odds" are expressed as " to one" (so must be converted from American odds)
1. Work out/look up an "estimated chance" for the "No jackpot winner" (in this case ~93.8%)
2. Find out what the current odds are in "American" (currently -550)
3. Work out the estimated RTP*** by multiplying the figures from step "1" and "2" together (93.8% x 650/550)
***: RTP means estimated "return to player"
4. Take away 100% from the figure obtain in "3" above to work out the EV (110.85...% - 100% = +10.85...% EV)
5. Work out what the "full Kelly bet" should be by dividing the edge by the odds (10.85% EV / 0.1818... = 59.7%)
6. From the above, you then divide it by 3 ^^^ to get "1/3 kelly" (59.7% / 3 = 19.9%)
^^^: You don't have to bet "1/3 Kelly" I just picked that to make the bet "safer", you can bet 1/2 or 1/4 "Kelly" as just some other examples of making the bet "safer" in the "medium term" ( as long as you never bet MORE than "full Kelly")
7. The figure obtained in step "6." is what you should bet (as a % of your current "betting bank roll")
So from using the above steps, you should now be able to work out how much to bet in total
Important: In "step 3/4" I used a way I find easier to calculate the EV (the more "universal" way for working out EV would be below^*^):
("chance of winning x odds (to one)" ) - "chance of losing" = EV
(93.8% x 0.1818...) - 6.2% = 17.05454... - 6.2% = 10.85...%
^*^ You MUST use this method (or an expanded version*^* of it) for:
(i) Any game/sport where your bet has a chance of a "push/tie" (baccarat, is just one example)
(ii) Any game/sport where your bet can be increased or decreased ( "let it ride", is just one example)
(iii) Any game that pays "increased odds" the more "unlikely" a player hand is ("let it ride", is one example of this as well)
*^*: The "Banker Bet - 8 decks" table in the baccarat link is one example of point (i) and the "Let it Ride — Standard Pay Table" (just under "Analysis") in the let it ride link is an example of points (ii) and (iii) (see below)
https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/basics/#toc-Odds
https://wizardofodds.com/games/let-it-ride/
----
Hope this is easy to understand and helpful.
Note: if it is not "easy to understand" , maybe someone with better communication/writing skills can write a better one in a new post.
(Even I think this is "Tl;dr", lol)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 2, 2019
December 2nd, 2019 at 4:52:07 PM
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Quote: ksdjdjI used your calculator to work out an "upper ticket estimate" for the next PB draw (I think i also used it to work out the "middle" figure for the MM).
I rounded the figure in your calculator to the nearest 0.05 million
Reasons why I use or like using your calculator:
1. I like to do things the easiest way possible (probably like a lot of people),
2. I think it is accurate, especially for jackpots under $450 million (I know that data is limited for bigger jackpots).
3. It seems to be very close to what I would get as my "middle or upper" limit in ticket estimate(s)
(I like my estimate to be on or a bit over the actual ticket sales when betting on the no jackpot winner).
Lastly, if i didn't use your calculator for this PB draw, I would have probably used 13 to 14.5 million tickets, so about a 95.15..% chance of no jackpot (using the 14.5 million ticket estimate)
Thank you for taking another look at it.
It's pretty obvious there is an exponential relationship between jackpot and ticket sales up to about 400M. Then it gets to be more of a judgement call how to draw a curve through the data. I can provide the exact formulas in my calculator if you're interested. For Power Ball there are actually three formulas, according to the jackpot amount.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
December 2nd, 2019 at 4:57:04 PM
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"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
December 2nd, 2019 at 5:47:52 PM
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Quote: Wizard... I can provide the exact formulas in my calculator if you're interested. For Power Ball there are actually three formulas, according to the jackpot amount.
That would be great, if you could give me all the formulas, thanks.
I tried out your following Mega Millions ticket estimate formulas that I found in an earlier post (see below):
"MM formula 1" = EXP(0.002862*C12)*8.56
Where "C12" is jackpot size in millions.
Note: for jackpots under ~440 million (As i think the point to stop using this one is for Jackpots over 440 million?)
"MM formula 2" = 264.7*LN(F12)-1581
Where "F12" is jackpot size in millions.
Note: for jackpots over ~440 million (As I think the point to stop using this one is for Jackpots under 440 million?)
When I was having a look at the formulas, I noticed there may be a small problem with "MM formula 2"
For Jackpot size (in millions): 500, your calculator says 64.06, and I get 64.01 using the above formula
For Jackpot size (in millions): 1000, your calculator says 247.56, and I get 247.48 using the above formula
For Jackpot size (in millions): 1500, your calculator says 354.9, and I get 354.81 using the above formula
These are very small differences, but I don't know why my figure is less than your figure (i think I am using the formula correctly?)
Edit (550 pm, pac time): I found out the answer to my "strike through" comment above, I just changed "MM formula 2" to the formula below (found it on one of your graphs that wasn't there when I first started writing this post)
"MM formula 2" = 264.74*LN(F12)-1581.2
where "F12" is jackpot size in millions
Note: for jackpots over ~440 million (As I think the point to stop using this one is for Jackpots under 440 million?)
---
I am going to watch the NFL now, so I will be away for a while.
December 3rd, 2019 at 5:01:15 PM
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Quote: ksdjdjThat would be great, if you could give me all the formulas, thanks.
Here is the code, which shows the formulas.
function powerball_onclick()
{
var myForm=document.form1;
var tickets=0;
var jackpot=parseInt(myForm.jackpot.value);
if (jackpot>=575)
{
tickets=505.3*Math.log(jackpot)-3110.5;
}
else if (jackpot>=300)
{
tickets=7.7461743*Math.pow(Math.E,0.004469*jackpot);
}
else
{
tickets=10.681057*Math.pow(Math.E,0.002696*jackpot);
}
var exp_winners=tickets*1000000/292201338;
var prob_win=1-Math.pow(Math.E,-1*exp_winners);
window.document.form1.tickets_sold.value=Math.round(100*tickets)/100;
window.document.form1.exp_winners.value=Math.round(100*exp_winners)/100;
window.document.form1.prob_win.value=Math.round(10000*prob_win)/100+"%";
}
function megamillions_onclick()
{
var myForm=document.form1;
var tickets=0;
var jackpot=parseInt(myForm.jackpot.value);
if (jackpot<=400)
{
tickets=8.56*Math.pow(Math.E,0.002862*jackpot);
}
else
{
tickets=264.74*Math.log(jackpot)-1581.2;
}
var exp_winners=tickets*1000000/302575350;
var prob_win=1-Math.pow(Math.E,-1*exp_winners);
window.document.form1.tickets_sold.value=Math.round(100*tickets)/100;
window.document.form1.exp_winners.value=Math.round(100*exp_winners)/100;
window.document.form1.prob_win.value=Math.round(10000*prob_win)/100+"%";
}
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
December 3rd, 2019 at 5:33:31 PM
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Quote: Wizard... For jackpots under $400 million:
t = 8.56*exp(0.002862*j)
For jackpots over $400 million:
t = 264.7*ln(j) - 1581....
I am still getting ~ 440 million as the point to swap your formula around for Mega Millions.
Can you type in 401 for "Jackpot size (in millions)" and click on the Mega Million button in the "ticket-sales-calculator"?
Note: I am getting 5.64 as the "Tickets sold (in millions)" figure when I type 401 on your page, but when I type in 400 I get 26.89 "Tickets sold (in millions)".
Note 2: When I type in 440 in a spreadsheet, I get 30.16 million tickets for the "exp" formula and 30.21 million tickets for the "ln" formula
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 3, 2019
December 4th, 2019 at 1:22:58 AM
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For the Mega Millions draw on the 12/03/19, I put 4,760 down to win 850.
Opening Bal: 24,390
Finishing Bal: 25,240
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (760)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 94.08...%
Odds Taken: -560 (my early bet was 2550 @ -500, and my late bet was 2210 @ -650)
Actual EV: +10.88...%
Tickets Sold***: 18,460,799
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
----
Other info:
Because the bookie is consistently putting up good odds for this prop at the moment, I am going to put in some more money to "roughly double" my current 5d balance (so the results from now on will be simulated^^^).
^^^: I feel this is the "fairest" way to illustrate how these bets are performing, because if new people to this site read these posts, they could think I am trying to "force" my way into a "positive" result.
Note: This is just one reason I think "simulated" results are the best way for me to post my "result summary", going forward.
Also, if they put up odds for the Mega Millions draw on the 12/06/19, I will probably use 20.6 million tickets as my estimate.
Note: To get the above figure, I just used the link below and added a 1.25 million to the "Tickets sold (in millions): " figure, since I think the "ticket-sales-calculator" displayed an accurate estimate.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/
----
Odds Update (if you haven't had a bet yet for this draw, this is the new "Bet amount" you should have, if betting "1/3" Kelly):
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/04/19"
Odds: -1135
Estimated Chance: 95.07...% (based on an estimate of 14.75 million tickets)
Estimated EV: +3.45...%
Bet Amount: ~ 13.1% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
Will I have a bet: I already had my "full bet" @ odds of -1200 and I am not going to have any more
(I could have another 0.1% or so if I wanted to, but that will only give me an extra ~$2.2 profit, if I win)
Note: from now on I will write the "bet summary" like the one I just did above, as it uses a bit less "vertical space" in the post.
Note 2: The time that I state I am having my bet in the "will i have a bet" part of my summary may become very important soon if the jackpot keeps rising, as more "smart" money comes in early, when the estimated edge is "big^*^" (if I think it is important to bet early I will say so at the time of the "bet summary" post).
^*^: see below for one example of when I think it is very important to bet early.
Again, this is just one example where I will probably say "IMPORTANT: I recommend you get your bet on as early as possible" in the "Will I have a bet:" part of my "bet summary".
Note: I am thinking of using "(snip)" from now on instead of "..." , as I think "(snip)" is easier for people to understand (at least one other forum member does it this way, so I decided to copy them).
Also Note: for the above example, I would have had an estimated ev of about 126%, if I got on at the odds of $3.65
---
For the above post: the math should be right, but spelling/grammar has not been checked.
Opening Bal: 24,390
Finishing Bal: 25,240
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (760)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 94.08...%
Odds Taken: -560 (my early bet was 2550 @ -500, and my late bet was 2210 @ -650)
Actual EV: +10.88...%
Tickets Sold***: 18,460,799
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
----
Other info:
Because the bookie is consistently putting up good odds for this prop at the moment, I am going to put in some more money to "roughly double" my current 5d balance (so the results from now on will be simulated^^^).
^^^: I feel this is the "fairest" way to illustrate how these bets are performing, because if new people to this site read these posts, they could think I am trying to "force" my way into a "positive" result.
Note: This is just one reason I think "simulated" results are the best way for me to post my "result summary", going forward.
Also, if they put up odds for the Mega Millions draw on the 12/06/19, I will probably use 20.6 million tickets as my estimate.
Note: To get the above figure, I just used the link below and added a 1.25 million to the "Tickets sold (in millions): " figure, since I think the "ticket-sales-calculator" displayed an accurate estimate.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/
----
Odds Update (if you haven't had a bet yet for this draw, this is the new "Bet amount" you should have, if betting "1/3" Kelly):
Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/04/19"
Odds: -1135
Estimated Chance: 95.07...% (based on an estimate of 14.75 million tickets)
Estimated EV: +3.45...%
Bet Amount: ~ 13.1% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
Will I have a bet: I already had my "full bet" @ odds of -1200 and I am not going to have any more
(I could have another 0.1% or so if I wanted to, but that will only give me an extra ~$2.2 profit, if I win)
Note: from now on I will write the "bet summary" like the one I just did above, as it uses a bit less "vertical space" in the post.
Note 2: The time that I state I am having my bet in the "will i have a bet" part of my summary may become very important soon if the jackpot keeps rising, as more "smart" money comes in early, when the estimated edge is "big^*^" (if I think it is important to bet early I will say so at the time of the "bet summary" post).
^*^: see below for one example of when I think it is very important to bet early.
Quote: ksdjdj(March 27th, 2019 at 4:58:47 PM, if you want to look up the whole post)
(snip) Prop: "32 No Jackpot Winner 03/27/19"
Odds: +195 ($2.95)
Chance of "No Jackpot Winner": 61.9327...%
EV: +82.7...% (snip)
(snip) The early odds were actually $3.65, 14 hours ago, but my bitcoin deposit with 5dimes was delayed, so I had to take $2.95.(snip)
(snip) the odds are now $2.55, and the +EV is about 58% (so it is still a really good bet) (snip)
(snip) Last time i looked the odds were $2.45, so the bet had a closing EV of 51.xxx%
Again, this is just one example where I will probably say "IMPORTANT: I recommend you get your bet on as early as possible" in the "Will I have a bet:" part of my "bet summary".
Note: I am thinking of using "(snip)" from now on instead of "..." , as I think "(snip)" is easier for people to understand (at least one other forum member does it this way, so I decided to copy them).
Also Note: for the above example, I would have had an estimated ev of about 126%, if I got on at the odds of $3.65
---
For the above post: the math should be right, but spelling/grammar has not been checked.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 4, 2019
December 4th, 2019 at 5:11:14 AM
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Quote: WizardThe next drawing is on Tuesday for MegaMillions. Here are the details:
Jackpot = 266M
Estimated probability of winner = 5.88%
Fair line on no winner = -1600
5dimes lines:
Winner +400
No winner -500
Player advantage on no winner = 12.94%
My 5dimes balance is $443 and I'm go to all on on the no. Might try to move some more money into it. Anyone want to sell me Bitcoin?
Ka-ching! No winner.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
December 4th, 2019 at 5:26:05 AM
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I'm in the market are some Bitcoin as well. I have no idea what the deal is lately, but no private sellers seems to be selling it.Quote: WizardAnyone want to sell me Bitcoin?
Reputable members or somebody with good references only.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
December 4th, 2019 at 12:41:18 PM
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I have said this earlier in the thread, but I think I read somewhere that of all the tickets bought, ~70% are "machine/random picks", and ~30% of the tickets are "not-so-random/player picks".
Also, the reason i mentioned the "70%/30%" thing above is, that the "no jackpot winner" estimated chance figure I am giving you would only be "100% accurate" if all the tickets were "random picks"
Note: this could increase the chance of both "no jackpot winner" and "multiple winners" slightly (but by an amount unknown to me).
Also, I like it when I see numbers like this (in the last draw they were 23 · 43 · 60 · 63 · 69, in the main part of the draw).
What is the chance that only one number is less than 32, and no numbers have an 8 in them in the main draw? (When I am betting on the "no prop", I like it when there aren't many "birthday numbers" or 8s***)
***: Since roughly 30% of the tickets are "not randomly picked", and plenty of people still believe "8" is a "very lucky" number.
Also, the reason i mentioned the "70%/30%" thing above is, that the "no jackpot winner" estimated chance figure I am giving you would only be "100% accurate" if all the tickets were "random picks"
Note: this could increase the chance of both "no jackpot winner" and "multiple winners" slightly (but by an amount unknown to me).
Also, I like it when I see numbers like this (in the last draw they were 23 · 43 · 60 · 63 · 69, in the main part of the draw).
What is the chance that only one number is less than 32, and no numbers have an 8 in them in the main draw? (When I am betting on the "no prop", I like it when there aren't many "birthday numbers" or 8s***)
***: Since roughly 30% of the tickets are "not randomly picked", and plenty of people still believe "8" is a "very lucky" number.
December 4th, 2019 at 2:01:38 PM
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Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/06/19"
Odds: -700
Estimated Chance: 93.41...% (based on an estimate of 20.6 million tickets)
Estimated EV: +6.76...%
Bet Amount: If you bet now, ~ 15.8% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
Will I have a bet: Yes, but not yet, as I think there is a very high chance that the odds on offer will get bigger, closer to the draw.
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/06/19"
Odds: -700
Estimated Chance: 93.41...% (based on an estimate of 20.6 million tickets)
Estimated EV: +6.76...%
Bet Amount: If you bet now, ~ 15.8% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
Will I have a bet: Yes, but not yet, as I think there is a very high chance that the odds on offer will get bigger, closer to the draw.
December 4th, 2019 at 2:38:24 PM
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Important (especially for people with a very big bank roll):
Every so often I test 5d to see what the biggest bet*** I can have is.
Currently the max amount PER BET is, "to win $5000" or "5000 down" (see 1) and 2) below) :
***: 5d make me type my password in when I am about to confirm a bet , so that is why i can cancel it after finding out what the "limit" is
Important: I would NOT recommend you do the above test yourself, unless you are 100% certain you have to type a password in on your account to confirm the bet.
1) "To win $5000", for odds that are less than even money (eg, 35,000 @ -700)
2) "5000 down", for odds that are even money or more (eg, 5,000 @ +500)
Note: Earlier in the year it was: "To win $2000" or "2000 down"
To put this in perspective, for people with enough money to bet the "max bet" this is worth an estimated EV of: ~ $2,366, for the next MM draw @ the current odds of -700 ($35,000 x "estimated EV of 6.76% = $2,366)
This prop has come a long way from the "humble beginnings"^^^ of only getting "to win $500" or "500 down", when I first started betting on this around 2012/2013 or so.
^^^: This has turned from a "novelty bet with a player edge", into a "seemingly" fairly consistent play for the AP now (if I had known it would have grown like that when I first started writing a post about it, I probably would have stopped myself, but I can't do that now, lol).
---------------
I may see if it worth forming a "partnership", and get people to put in $1,000 + per person, with no fees/commissions charged by me (the only "fees" you will probably have to pay are the bitcoin*** transfer fees and other costs associated with bitcoin)
***: I will also accept Paypal and Skrill, but the funds will take longer, since 5d doesn't accept those methods of payment at the moment.
Any takers?
Note: I don't think this is breaking any forum rules, because I am not making any profit from fees or commissions, right?
(Please tell me to take this section of my post down, if I am wrong about this)
Every so often I test 5d to see what the biggest bet*** I can have is.
Currently the max amount PER BET is, "to win $5000" or "5000 down" (see 1) and 2) below) :
***: 5d make me type my password in when I am about to confirm a bet , so that is why i can cancel it after finding out what the "limit" is
Important: I would NOT recommend you do the above test yourself, unless you are 100% certain you have to type a password in on your account to confirm the bet.
1) "To win $5000", for odds that are less than even money (eg, 35,000 @ -700)
2) "5000 down", for odds that are even money or more (eg, 5,000 @ +500)
Note: Earlier in the year it was: "To win $2000" or "2000 down"
To put this in perspective, for people with enough money to bet the "max bet" this is worth an estimated EV of: ~ $2,366, for the next MM draw @ the current odds of -700 ($35,000 x "estimated EV of 6.76% = $2,366)
This prop has come a long way from the "humble beginnings"^^^ of only getting "to win $500" or "500 down", when I first started betting on this around 2012/2013 or so.
^^^: This has turned from a "novelty bet with a player edge", into a "seemingly" fairly consistent play for the AP now (if I had known it would have grown like that when I first started writing a post about it, I probably would have stopped myself, but I can't do that now, lol).
---------------
I may see if it worth forming a "partnership", and get people to put in $1,000 + per person, with no fees/commissions charged by me (the only "fees" you will probably have to pay are the bitcoin*** transfer fees and other costs associated with bitcoin)
***: I will also accept Paypal and Skrill, but the funds will take longer, since 5d doesn't accept those methods of payment at the moment.
Any takers?
Note: I don't think this is breaking any forum rules, because I am not making any profit from fees or commissions, right?
(Please tell me to take this section of my post down, if I am wrong about this)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 4, 2019
December 4th, 2019 at 6:48:08 PM
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Quote: ksdjdjI am still getting ~ 440 million as the point to swap your formula around for Mega Millions.
Can you type in 401 for "Jackpot size (in millions)" and click on the Mega Million button in the "ticket-sales-calculator"?
How do you know when to switch? I pretty much just eyeballed it, but it was a judgement call.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
