NFL Teaser of the Week
None of that sounds remarkable. Means a random two team teaser won 55.56% this week. That’s winning even at -120 but just variance.Quote: WatchMeWinStats if you teased NFL this past week.
28 team sides to tease this past week in nfl ( not including tonight's game ).
- 21 out of 28 sides teased (7 pt tease) were winners
14 games... 7 out of the 14 games you could not lose regardless of which side you teased.
Random three team parley hit 40.6% of the time. At +130 it was a loser. Needed +146 to break even.
LOLQuote: unJonNone of that sounds remarkable.
Oh, oh
WmW wants it to
sound
and
read as remarkable. Because he wins almost all the time. LOL
It is, imo, his unique claim to fame.
It is also the John Patrick method that he is re-spreading around, and of course
Mr. P came first, so it IS nothing new, and could be interpreted by some as plagiarism.
(the practice of taking someone else's work or ideas and passing them off as one's own.)
it is what it is.
I can come up with a $10 million US bankroll
and the team that has the cash, just wants sure winners. LOL
they are funny too!
I know they pass on his and my type.
a marriage made somewhere
Sally
Quote: WatchMeWinStats if you teased NFL this past week.
28 team sides to tease this past week in nfl ( not including tonight's game ).
- 21 out of 28 sides teased (7 pt tease) were winners
14 games... 7 out of the 14 games you could not lose regardless of which side you teased.
Thanks for the mathematical proof that there was zero edge in betting teasers this weekend
Quote: mustangsallyLOL
Oh, oh
WmW wants it to
sound
and
read as remarkable. Because he wins almost all the time. LOL
It is, imo, his unique claim to fame.
It is also the John Patrick method that he is re-spreading around, and of course
Mr. P came first, so it IS nothing new, and could be interpreted by some as plagiarism.
(the practice of taking someone else's work or ideas and passing them off as one's own.)
it is what it is.
I can come up with a $10 million US bankroll
and the team that has the cash, just wants sure winners. LOL
they are funny too!
I know they pass on his and my type.
a marriage made somewhere
Sally
You are indirectly addressing me... thank you again for your attention. It seems as if you have had a bad experience with handicappers or sports touters , etc. You seem to know so many of them. hmmm...
To refute your accusation.... I had no idea who John Patrick was until you mentioned his name. All wins and posts are my own wins and opinions. My teasers record speaks for itself. If you win doing what you do, then that is just fabulous. Good luck Sally!
if you are able to get an edge it is almost always because of a public misperception of some sort
there are a few exceptions to this rule but not many
Quote: speedycrapWMW, you forgot this weeks teasers..
I had rams, cinci, n cheifs on 3 teamer. I got tired of posting winners n having idiots still try to dismiss.
Btw, tonights game couldnt lose any way u teased it again. I guess others just cant see value. ...or perhaps im just really lucky
the upcoming Dolphins/Bengals game has the Bengals as 6 point faves per vegasinside.com (linked)
the moneyline is offered at various books on the fave at -245, -250, and -260.
I approximated an average of -255
if you bet $110 at -255 you will win $43.13
if you then parlay it with another moneyline bet at -255 (on a 6 point fave) you will bet $153.13 and you will win $60.05.
on the 2 bets you will have won $103.18.
on a 2 team teaser you would have only won $100.
if you were able to shop lines and get the best deal on the moneyline on both games, -245, then you would have won $108.11 which is a very significant difference.
based on this it looks like a better deal at least in some situations to parlay the money line then to bet a 2 team teaser
anybody looking for a better deal on teasers can research "Wong" teasers
http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/money/?s=539.0908813476562
https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/appendix/10/
Some see things before others and capitalize.
If someone wanted to use this strategy, why would he bet with you at -140 vs bet online at -130?Quote: FinsRuleOk, here’s the bet. You hypothetically bet both sides on a 7 point teaser for every game the rest of the nfl season at -140. If that shows a profit at the end of regular season, I’ll give you $100. If it doesn’t, you give me $100. Deal?
so that is yourQuote: WatchMeWin23 out of 30 sides picked in 7 pt teaser wins this past week. 8 of the 15 games , you could not lose either team that you piked. Harder to lose.
Some see things before others and capitalize.
proof you almost always win against the house with very HIGH house edge teasers.
no math required.
excellent.
you actually have NO concept of what a house edge is and why it is there, imo.
so cool!
EXACTLY WHAT JOHN PATRICK PREACHES!
you are just like the free bets here
https://www.boydsbets.com/nfl-teaser-of-the-week/
6 seasons and up $330
yahoo!
just like my husband
Loud and proud when he won, and quiet and wait til next week when he lost
Previous Season Results (wagering to win 100 units on each teaser)
2012 – 8-2 +560 units
2013 – 10-6 +290 units
2014 – 7-10 -510 units
2015 – 10-7 +160 units
2016 – 11-6 +450 units
2017 – 7-11 (-620 Units)
Overall Record – 53-42 (60%) +330
house edge
at 10% or higher?
no problem for WmW
remember this false statement, imo
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
it should read
'Losers hit n run... Winners stick around'
LOL
Sally
Quote: mustangsallyso that is your
proof you almost always win against the house with very HIGH house edge teasers.
no math required.
excellent.
you actually have NO concept of what a house edge is and why it is there, imo.
so cool!
EXACTLY WHAT JOHN PATRICK PREACHES!
you are just like the free bets here
https://www.boydsbets.com/nfl-teaser-of-the-week/
6 seasons and up $330
yahoo!
just like my husband
Loud and proud when he won, and quiet and wait til next week when he lostPrevious Season Results (wagering to win 100 units on each teaser)
2012 – 8-2 +560 units
2013 – 10-6 +290 units
2014 – 7-10 -510 units
2015 – 10-7 +160 units
2016 – 11-6 +450 units
2017 – 7-11 (-620 Units)
Overall Record – 53-42 (60%) +330
house edge
at 10% or higher?
no problem for WmW
remember this false statement, imo
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
it should read
'Losers hit n run... Winners stick around'
LOL
Sally
Wow... you really must have hated your husband with a passion. I'm sorry for you. Hell hath no fury.....
As far as going quiet when I lose... I don't know, we will have to see once I post a loser but haven't done so yet.
You can post all your stats, data, and mathematic jargon all you want, but just show me winners which is all that matters at the end of the day. The bottom line..
Don't be the meteorologist.
thank you so much for stating your opinion(s).Quote: WatchMeWinYou can post all your stats, data, and mathematic jargon all you want, but just show me winners which is all that matters at the end of the day. The bottom line..
gambling for money as you say is NOT "just show me winners which is all that matters at the end of the day"
that is not fact, just your opinion
another more important opinion on it, is how much do you win on a win and how much do you lose on a loss when you lose.
This shows its' face at the Craps table.
Those loud players say 'the $$$ is only on place bets'
cuz when they win, they win more than come bets,
totally ignoring the whole truth that when they lose the(y) lose more than
the come bet does.
simple opinions and
simple math required
again, I find it SO COOL you have NO concept of what a house edge is and why it even exists!
you are in the vast majority there.
that is so cool!
LOL
good luck to you, that is not an opinion
Sally
that is your conclusion?Quote: WatchMeWinWow... you really must have hated your husband with a passion. I'm sorry for you. Hell hath no fury.....
sad as if shows you do not understand what is written.
I did HATE things he did (as we should NEVER hate any person, just the things they do - so many say, like Roman Catholic priests and the things they do and keep a secret)
He kept from me how sick he really was, and died from it, and how much real $$$ he made last season in MLB betting just Grand Slam home runs.
of course, some HATE 'baby humans' because of what they do
(poop and pee all over, not to mention throw up, and babies never say they are sorry)
LOL
8 leg teaser time to win BIG $$$
Sally
Quote: unJonIf someone wanted to use this strategy, why would he bet with you at -140 vs bet online at -130?
Sorry, thought it was 140 online. 130 is fine.
no one is actually sure.Quote: AxelWolfI'm not sure why anyone with a super-duper always win caps system would wast their time with limited parlay card action.
WmW claims to have saved hundreds of thousands of US $$$ NOT making sports bets in the recent past ($200,000+)
then stopped doing just that.
many claims, many claims
just words and
keep it up!
thank you for sharing
2 leg teaser for NCAAF tonight
Sally
do not like teasers?
"Before you make any Houston vs. Tulsa picks, check out what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say. The advanced computer model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. In the past three years, this proprietary computer model has generated a jaw-dropping $4,210 profit for $100 bettors."
no like teasers
In general, sports wagering is not the best way to win... but I have found a teasers the past couple of years have been very good to me.. Perhaps I'm just very lucky or perhaps the oddsmakers are so good that they keep the lines very close to the actual outcome which equates to Ws in teasers.
it's a good thing we have a nice little PM feature on this site (-;Quote: VCUSkyhawkDon't let the never forces of evil distract you WMW. I am interested in your picks. In the end you will either win or lose, I am sure they will mock you either way. It is usually because they are miserable themselves.
is not it true that a nfl teaser requires 2 or more teams to be picked (or 2 or more bets actually) because it is a parlay type betQuote: WatchMeWin23 out of 30 sides picked in 7 pt teaser wins this past week.
and a teaser can not be done on just a one game bet?
if that is so, 23 out of 30 sides,
23choose2 * 7choose0 / 30choose2 was the winning probability for a
random 2 team pick by anyone
253*1 / 435 = 253/435 or about 58.2%
how can 58 out of 100 a certain event?
what have say from you?
does it not now require knowledge on what teams play, who plays and not plays, etc.
or just random luck for you to win?
Sally
https://www.gamblingsites.org/football-betting/nfl-teasers/
Quote: AxelWolfit's a good thing we have a nice little PM feature on this site (-;
I honestly dont care that much, I just dont get why Sally et al. feel the need to relentlessly mock this dude. Yeah, I get he made some outrageous claims in regards to craps. He didnt seem to be doing so in this thread, but whatever some people need to belittle others as a source of joy.
mock: tease or laugh at in a scornful or contemptuous manner.Quote: VCUSkyhawkI honestly dont care that much, I just dont get why Sally et al. feel the need to relentlessly mock this dude.
WmW gets questions asked to him,imo, and over 90% of the time skirts them, refuses to answer or answers with words he uses and does not define those words.
I think Perry Mason would have a fun day with WmW on the stand.
of course wMw is knot on the stand here, some just want some answers to very easy questions.
what IS wrong with that?
you want to be the only one who understands?
who made you that way??
but really,
but John Patrick is loved my many too
so why not ask WmW to answer some simple questions asked to and of him?
should be fair.
I due say it is entertainment
what is wrong with that??
and you are insulted and sad (I do not know)
that appears to be your problem and I was not trying to do any of that to you.
but we live in a free country to ask questions
and
not to answer them
so, why have a restricted Forum
Sally
Quote: mustangsally
I think Perry Mason would have a fun day with WmW on the stand.
Its funny you mention Perry Mason, he was a defense attorney. You are coming across as a prosecutor. And let's be honest, no answer he gives is going to satisfy you. You and I (and maybe even he) knows that teasers for the most part are negative EV propositions. Just let him post his picks, we will see how they fare and they will speak for themselves. You just seem to get enjoyment in torturing him with the truth. And I do believe it is the truth. But still, what harm is he doing?
bovada is 140. Where is 130?Quote: unJonIf someone wanted to use this strategy, why would he bet with you at -140 vs bet online at -130?
I said above "of course wMw is knot on the stand here"Quote: VCUSkyhawkIts funny you mention Perry Mason, he was a defense attorney. You are coming across as a prosecutor.
you seem to me to have understanding reading problem(s)
I also do, so no feel sorry
Interesting. honest? lolQuote: VCUSkyhawkAnd let's be honest, no answer he gives is going to satisfy you.
thank you for sharing your opinion.
WmW mentioned a long time ago he wins because ...dah.dah...dah...
you can find it yourself, it is right there,
I ask a simple question (for example) when he changed his tune and said he is a consistent winner and asked WmW what the definition of that was is at how he uses it.
still has not answered that one and it was asked nicely more than once.
no one cares. it is all about winning. no one even understands what a house edge is so why confuse the issue at hand, imo, I say so.Quote: VCUSkyhawkYou and I (and maybe even he) knows that teasers for the most part are negative EV propositions.
I never said he could not, I remember asking him why he posts them, still no replyQuote: VCUSkyhawkJust let him post his picks,
sureQuote: VCUSkyhawkwe will see how they fare and they will speak for themselves.
what? torture? some say when I sing my voice does just that. is that what you mean?Quote: VCUSkyhawkYou just seem to get enjoyment in torturing him with the truth.
I see no harm? why you say that? I asked a few simple questions and he does not want to answer. so!Quote: VCUSkyhawkAnd I do believe it is the truth. But still, what harm is he doing?
his right.
my right to make and share my thoughts too
what harm am I doing then?
if... then...
Sally
My condolencesQuote: mustangsallyHe kept from me how sick he really was, and died from it, and how much real $$$ he made last season in MLB betting just Grand Slam home runs.
Quote: mustangsally
my right to make and share my thoughts too
what harm am I doing then?
Sally
Of course it is your right....as you keep repeatedly doing. Do you believe that you are going to get an answer you want out of him?
Sigh, this is pointless. Enjoy the torture, I will bow out of this thread.
WMW if you want somebody to cheer you on and talk to about your teasers, shoot me an PM.
Mathematically you are right Sally.
WMW posts the teaser pick to share with other members. So someone (like me) can put a bet on it. And cheer him up after winning. I think it is ok.
Everybody, just chill please. Sally, condolence to you. I had the same experience and also very frustrated.
Quote: mustangsallyand how much real $$$ he made last season in MLB betting just Grand Slam home runs.
What betting options are offered regarding grand slam homeruns?
Quote: speedycrap
Sally, condolence to you. I had the same experience and also very frustrated.
my favorite cousin, Michael, was an educated man, a high school teacher. he was also a compulsive gambler. he received a 200K inheritance and blew it in a couple of months. he spent the last couple of years of his life in a homeless shelter which is where he died. so sad.
Quote: mustangsallywhat have say from you?
does it not now require knowledge on what teams play, who plays and not plays, etc.
or just random luck
You really are fishing. Of course having knowledge of the team's, their history, players, stats, gametime measurables, are the most important in sports betting... That should have been known to be a given. Now, in addition to the aforementioned, the additional yeaserl points applied the spread on the teams you conclude to have line value, I have viewed to be a strong advantage and have successfully capitalized on it.
I absolutely do not think that you just tease every game and you're going to win. This past weekend was probably more than normal for teased sides to win. Knowing which teams have great value in addition to the teaser points where the Ws keep coming.
Im 6-0 with my teasers this year so far.. I've posted four of them. Im 3-1 with my straight wagers and 1-1 with parlays. Overall, up 1100% in football this year. The bulk of my Wagers are in the teasers. The parlay Wagers are very small. There are your stats.
Let’s only count pics in this thread. 4-0 so far and lots of us anxious to see this weeks teasers so we can run out the season and root with you.Quote: WatchMeWinOh yea, I better clarify because I know how your mind works... Those stats are from Football starting this season in 2018. It did not include my winning teaser n parlay from Super Bowlposted and plays from the playoffs in 2018. Otherwise the winning percentage would be increased greatly cumulatively.
see hereQuote: michael99000What betting options are offered regarding grand slam homeruns?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/all-other/31633-mlb-grand-slams/2/#post677040
just YES there will be at least 1 GS hit today
or
NO there will not be any hit today
Sally
Quote: mustangsallysee here
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/all-other/31633-mlb-grand-slams/2/#post677040
just YES there will be at least 1 GS hit today
or
NO there will not be any hit today
Sally
I predict that the general population, including Sports Enthusiast, couldn't give a flying rats as% fu÷% as to predicting whether a grand slam will be hit tonight.
Quote: mustangsallyis not it true that a nfl teaser requires 2 or more teams to be picked (or 2 or more bets actually) because it is a parlay type bet
and a teaser can not be done on just a one game bet?
if that is so, 23 out of 30 sides,
23choose2 * 7choose0 / 30choose2 was the winning probability for a
random 2 team pick by anyone
253*1 / 435 = 253/435 or about 58.2%
how can 58 out of 100 a certain event?
what have say from you?
does it not now require knowledge on what teams play, who plays and not plays, etc.
or just random luck for you to win?
Sally
https://www.gamblingsites.org/football-betting/nfl-teasers/
I am sure there is a house edge but just like blackjack and card count thing the edge can be reduced.
In his case by properly analyzing all games and choosing the games he thinks a team can win outright and teasing them. I believe the wizzard is 70% against the spread picking 5 nfl bets a week over the last several years. Does the house have an edge against him?
Quote: troopscottI am sure there is a house edge but just like blackjack and card count thing the edge can be reduced.
In his case by properly analyzing all games and choosing the games he thinks a team can win outright and teasing them. I believe the wizzard is 70% against the spread picking 5 nfl bets a week over the last several years. Does the house have an edge against him?
I think the Wiz would tell you he’s only 70% because he’s not picking against current lines.
thank you for sharing your opinion, imo, no one cares what that is.Quote: WatchMeWinI predict that the general population, including Sports Enthusiast, couldn't give a flying rats as% fu÷% as to predicting whether a grand slam will be hit tonight.
this is all about WINNING, because some one asked, so I give a nice answer
For the 2017 season my uncle (not me) made 127 bets on YES for GS
(out of the 179 days MLB had at least 1 game scheduled.)
He only wagered on days where 15 or more games were scheduled. He also mentioned that the GS and No-Hit bet were not available on days where only 12 or less games were scheduled.
He WOn 71 times
LoSt 56 times
net profit OVER $20,000
(was a +EV for every bet of the season - at 1 in 20)
this 2018 season
He WOn 66 times
LoSt 52 times
net WIN only $7,000 (as the lines really dropped after the 1st month)
all about WINNING!
I made a few grand Slam MLB bets but did not finish my studies on the wager until late
I did not win much
I do way better on the money line bets
won 306 of them (91%) up for the year and happy
Sally
Quote: mustangsallythank you for sharing your opinion, imo, no one cares what that is.
this is all about WINNING, because some one asked, so I give a nice answer
For the 2017 season my uncle (not me) made 127 bets on YES for GS
(out of the 179 days MLB had at least 1 game scheduled.)
He only wagered on days where 15 or more games were scheduled. He also mentioned that the GS and No-Hit bet were not available on days where only 12 or less games were scheduled.
He WOn 71 times
LoSt 56 times
net profit OVER $20,000
(was a +EV for every bet of the season - at 1 in 20)
this 2018 season
He WOn 66 times
LoSt 52 times
net WIN only $7,000 (as the lines really dropped after the 1st month)
all about WINNING!
I made a few grand Slam MLB bets but did not finish my studies on the wager until late
I did not win much
I do way better on the money line bets336 bets this year on every sport I like
won 306 of them (91%) up for the year and happy
Sally
So your sports betting record this year is 306 wins and 30 losses?
That’s the equivalent of someone betting all 16 nfl games all season and AVERAGING a 14-2 record ATS
Quote: michael99000Quote: mustangsallythank you for sharing your opinion, imo, no one cares what that is.
this is all about WINNING, because some one asked, so I give a nice answer
For the 2017 season my uncle (not me) made 127 bets on YES for GS
(out of the 179 days MLB had at least 1 game scheduled.)
He only wagered on days where 15 or more games were scheduled. He also mentioned that the GS and No-Hit bet were not available on days where only 12 or less games were scheduled.
He WOn 71 times
LoSt 56 times
net profit OVER $20,000
(was a +EV for every bet of the season - at 1 in 20)
this 2018 season
He WOn 66 times
LoSt 52 times
net WIN only $7,000 (as the lines really dropped after the 1st month)
all about WINNING!
I made a few grand Slam MLB bets but did not finish my studies on the wager until late
I did not win much
I do way better on the money line bets336 bets this year on every sport I like
won 306 of them (91%) up for the year and happy
Sally
So your sports betting record this year is 306 wins and 30 losses?
And these are all -150 odds or lower bets ?
It's crazy to me how well people and their family do gambling on bets that weren't posted anywhere. It's incredible how well you can pick if you don't post, but then magically you post and you start to lose. Quite the phenomenon.
Full disclosure: I'm 500-0 on bets of +250 and higher in the last 18 months.
Quote: SM777Quote: michael99000Quote: mustangsallythank you for sharing your opinion, imo, no one cares what that is.
this is all about WINNING, because some one asked, so I give a nice answer
For the 2017 season my uncle (not me) made 127 bets on YES for GS
(out of the 179 days MLB had at least 1 game scheduled.)
He only wagered on days where 15 or more games were scheduled. He also mentioned that the GS and No-Hit bet were not available on days where only 12 or less games were scheduled.
He WOn 71 times
LoSt 56 times
net profit OVER $20,000
(was a +EV for every bet of the season - at 1 in 20)
this 2018 season
He WOn 66 times
LoSt 52 times
net WIN only $7,000 (as the lines really dropped after the 1st month)
all about WINNING!
I made a few grand Slam MLB bets but did not finish my studies on the wager until late
I did not win much
I do way better on the money line bets336 bets this year on every sport I like
won 306 of them (91%) up for the year and happy
Sally
So your sports betting record this year is 306 wins and 30 losses?
And these are all -150 odds or lower bets ?
It's crazy to me how well people and their family do gambling on bets that weren't posted anywhere. It's incredible how well you can pick if you don't post, but then magically you post and you start to lose. Quite the phenomenon.
Full disclosure: I'm 500-0 on bets of +250 and higher in the last 18 months.
The most shocking thing to me about her 306-30 non-posted plays record is that she admitted there was 30 losses.
Up until then this forum as a whole was undefeated on non posted plays
I took the data right from my Excel file for betting in 2018.Quote: michael99000The most shocking thing to me about her 306-30 non-posted plays record is that she admitted there was 30 losses.
Up until then this forum as a whole was undefeated on non posted plays
I only made 19 bets so far this year before the game in question started. Most NCAAF moneyline bets. BIG faves!
added: forgot I made 3 'future bets' on Golden State to win the NBA champ, and they did, but after the series had started.
Most all my bets are in-game bets and I use mobile wagering.
I missed a lot of winners waiting for the line to move the way I wanted. But that is ok.
And going by ESPN 'probability of winning' during the game, every bet I made was +ev... except 1.
just the way it is.
the main reason I can NOT post any bets as the game already started
and many times the games'
money line goes off, that is the bet I love to make.
Points and over/under still goes and I have made a few of those late in the game.
I always try to do things differently, because I can, and many tell me I can't
my W/L record was worse in 2017,
because my husband teased me all the time when he won and I did not bet, so I bet just to bet.
I do remember losing $700 betting that NBA Cleveland would win the game
while leading by 26 points at the start of 4th quarter. They lost and I got laughed at. I was still up at the end of the year.
Sally
many say "if it is FREE, you get what you paid for"Quote: WatchMeWin...and to think that I have been giving you all of my winners for free! Silly me.
LOL
Sally
