General Sports Talk
Poll
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| | 9 votes (13.04%) | ||
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69 members have voted
Quote: SOOPOO
Coach SOOPOO would have let Wilson try for the 1st down. But I don’t think it was AS BAD a decision as virtually all the analysts are making it out to be!
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Coach DRich would have kicked if he could assume the kicker would make it 40% of the time. I think your numbers of 50% probability and 80% probability come out to an overall 40% chance of being successful. I personally doubt they would have got to an 80% probability of making the kick.
Quote: DRichQuote: SOOPOO
Coach SOOPOO would have let Wilson try for the 1st down. But I don’t think it was AS BAD a decision as virtually all the analysts are making it out to be!
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Coach DRich would have kicked if he could assume the kicker would make it 40% of the time. I think your numbers of 50% probability and 80% probability come out to an overall 40% chance of being successful. I personally doubt they would have got to an 80% probability of making the kick.
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That's what makes this so complicated. Converting the 4th and 5 does not exist in a vacuum because you're not going to run the clock all the way down to 0:20, and even if you did, you have more timeouts anyway. While McManus has made just over half from 50+ in his career, he has hit an actual (in-game) 83.8% from the range of 40-49. If you can put him in a position to kick one that is under 40 yards, then at 95%, he is virtually automatic.
With that, we really can't come to any ultimate probability conclusion without knowing at least a range probability of---first we convert the Fourth Down, what is the probability McManus has to kick a 50+ attempt, 40-49, sub-40...and then go from there.
Another thing is, when it comes to leg, you've either got the leg or you don't. We simply don't see 60+ tried very often, but you always hear announcers say, "Oh, he could have made that from 70!!!", and it's true. It could be that we have an issue of sample sizing such that, given a large enough sample, we might find that a kicker is not THAT much less likely to make from 60-65 as mid-high 50's, provided he's got the leg for it to begin with.
Gene
I don't think any NFL Coach has ever taken this much heat over a decision he made
not that I can recall anyway - the internet era makes it worse for him
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Quote: lilredrooster______________
I don't think any NFL Coach has ever taken this much heat over a decision he made
not that I can recall anyway - the internet era makes it worse for him
.
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First game, too. Well, at least we can assume that he'll never feel fire like this again, at least, as long as he never finds himself on the hot seat.
Quote: VegasriderWatching the Payton cast when this debacle was happening was hilarious. I think there are only 2 successful FG made from 64 out within the past 20 years?
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nope - one successful one from 66 yards out
after that - the next further in NFL history is 63
it would have been the 2nd furthest field goal in NFL history if he made it
the Coach put in a kicker to make history who was ranked 26th in field goal % in 2021
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https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/steeler-talk-week-1/
We've got some NFL fans around here and the Steelers are one of the more popular teams in the league anyway, so I figured I'd try this and keep it going if it ends up being well-received.
Was such a mail biter of a game. I’m not sure I’ve ever screamed so much at my TV before. Steelers lose that game without Watt last week. So let’s see how the D plays this week, with the greatest schemer in football history (the Belicheck) on the other sideline. I expect Minkah to regress to the mean a bit, hopefully also on the penalty side of things.
I have high hopes like I do every year.
Quote: Mission146Quote: lilredrooster______________
I don't think any NFL Coach has ever taken this much heat over a decision he made
not that I can recall anyway - the internet era makes it worse for him
.
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First game, too. Well, at least we can assume that he'll never feel fire like this again, at least, as long as he never finds himself on the hot seat.
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I think this is just recency bias. Brandon Staley got hammered just as bad not once but twice last year for late game decisions, the timeout that rather than putting both Raiders and Chargers in the playoffs week 17 with a tie ended up being the catalyst for Raiders going for the win being the latest.
Quote: unJonGood article. Go Steelers.
Was such a mail biter of a game. I’m not sure I’ve ever screamed so much at my TV before. Steelers lose that game without Watt last week. So let’s see how the D plays this week, with the greatest schemer in football history (the Belicheck) on the other sideline. I expect Minkah to regress to the mean a bit, hopefully also on the penalty side of things.
I have high hopes like I do every year.
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Thank you very much! Let's go Steelers!
I definitely agree with your observations. I'm usually the last person to be (as) positive (as possible) about something, but you'd think the Steelers got blown out by twenty with Mitch throwing three picks to hear the radio guys tell it this week.
Quote: unJonGood article. Go Steelers.
Was such a mail biter of a game. I’m not sure I’ve ever screamed so much at my TV before. Steelers lose that game without Watt last week. So let’s see how the D plays this week, with the greatest schemer in football history (the Belicheck) on the other sideline. I expect Minkah to regress to the mean a bit, hopefully also on the penalty side of things.
I have high hopes like I do every year.
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I took the season under. Last week's game was a case of neither side wanted to win so the Steelers said, "We have to beat the traffic on I-70 so lets get out of here!"
Net 4 turnovers and only win by 3 in OT and only because of multiple Bengals miscues?
Quote: SOOPOOTJ may be the best defensive player in the NFL. His absence is huge. I don’t think the books are giving him enough credit. This is a game between two bad teams. But I’ll root for the Steelers over the Pats any day!
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Puck the Fats
Quote: SOOPOOTJ may be the best defensive player in the NFL. His absence is huge. I don’t think the books are giving him enough credit. This is a game between two bad teams. But I’ll root for the Steelers over the Pats any day!
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I can't let the Aaron Donald slander pass without comment.
Quote: mcallister3200Quote: SOOPOOTJ may be the best defensive player in the NFL. His absence is huge. I don’t think the books are giving him enough credit. This is a game between two bad teams. But I’ll root for the Steelers over the Pats any day!
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I can't let the Aaron Donald slander pass without comment.
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He may have had one sack against the Bills, but he was pretty easily neutralized. He is certainly great, but I think (until his injury) TJ was better.
Quote: DRichTwo interesting football games tonight. I will be rooting for Louisville and would take the 17 points with a bad Wyoming team.
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I wish you would have told me sooner as I guessed to take AF laying the points. It’s only money. I did have FSU of course for less $$…..
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: DRichTwo interesting football games tonight. I will be rooting for Louisville and would take the 17 points with a bad Wyoming team.
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I wish you would have told me sooner as I guessed to take AF laying the points. It’s only money. I did have FSU of course for less $$…..
I really did not expect Wyoming to win, just thought 17 was too many. As you probably know, AF doesn't throw well and Wyoming had a size advantage in the trenches. Obviously I was happy to saw Wyoming go up 10-0 but when AF took the lead at 14-10 I did not expect Wyoming to score again.
Mich St vs Washington
Auburn vs Penn St
BYU vs Oregon
Miami vs Texas AM
I like Notre Dame vs Cal over 41
How can Iowa lay 23.5 against anyone?
what a year this is for the MLB
the Yankees Aaron Judge is closing in on Roger Maris's home run record for the American League
he has 59 with 16 games remaining this season - Maris of course hit 61
Judge also has an excellent shot at the Triple Crown which has only happened 12 times in MLB history
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https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/18/sports/baseball/aaron-judge-yankees-triple-crown.html
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Had two separate parlays and a single on the game and one of the parlays would have paid out the bulk of that on a $25 free bet for a $300 payout. Still I am up $245 lifetime on sportsbetting. Ill take my winnings and be happy but still gonna be a little salty.
Kyler Murray is so much fun to watch - it's players like him that make sports so great
here he is scrambling for a 2 pt. conversion - in the backfield for an incredible 20.8 seconds - Cards went on to win in OT
great, great play
NFL won't let me embed it here so I got you guys the link - fast forward to 7:25 to see the play
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5ko_NNMuPE
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Quote: lilredrooster______________
Kyler Murray is so much fun to watch - it's players like him that make sports so great
here he is scrambling for a 2 pt. conversion - in the backfield for an incredible 20.8 seconds - Cards went on to win in OT
great, great play
NFL won't let me embed it here so I got you guys the link - fast forward to 7:25 to see the play
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5ko_NNMuPE
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I saw it live. He apparently ran a total of 84 yards to pick up those 2 yards! I don’t think KM should be considered in the tier of elite QB’s, but the 4th quarter of that game was quite impressive for him.
The Colts suck
The NFL really has the Bills and 31 other teams that wish they were the Bills.
My deep understanding of the NFL would have had the Jets losing as my only ‘sure thing’. Fade me…
Quote: SOOPOO
My deep understanding of the NFL would have had the Jets losing as my only ‘sure thing’. Fade me…
The important thing you missed is that betting against the Browns is just as strong of a play as betting against the Jets.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster______________
Kyler Murray is so much fun to watch - it's players like him that make sports so great
here he is scrambling for a 2 pt. conversion - in the backfield for an incredible 20.8 seconds - Cards went on to win in OT
great, great play
NFL won't let me embed it here so I got you guys the link - fast forward to 7:25 to see the play
.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5ko_NNMuPE
.
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I saw it live. He apparently ran a total of 84 yards to pick up those 2 yards! I don’t think KM should be considered in the tier of elite QB’s, but the 4th quarter of that game was quite impressive for him.
The Colts suck
The NFL really has the Bills and 31 other teams that wish they were the Bills.
My deep understanding of the NFL would have had the Jets losing as my only ‘sure thing’. Fade me…
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(Bold added)
Wow. I cannot believe you would taunt the football gods so.
. It’s true…. but…. the oddsmakers have the Bills now at +475. So is that an implied 1/6 or so chance to win it all? 5/6 I’m pretty disappointed!Quote: unJonQuote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster______________
Kyler Murray is so much fun to watch - it's players like him that make sports so great
here he is scrambling for a 2 pt. conversion - in the backfield for an incredible 20.8 seconds - Cards went on to win in OT
great, great play
NFL won't let me embed it here so I got you guys the link - fast forward to 7:25 to see the play
.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5ko_NNMuPE
.
link to original post
I saw it live. He apparently ran a total of 84 yards to pick up those 2 yards! I don’t think KM should be considered in the tier of elite QB’s, but the 4th quarter of that game was quite impressive for him.
The Colts suck
The NFL really has the Bills and 31 other teams that wish they were the Bills.
My deep understanding of the NFL would have had the Jets losing as my only ‘sure thing’. Fade me…
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(Bold added)
Wow. I cannot believe you would taunt the football gods so.
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Pretty sure the Bills didn’t punt last week. I wonder if a team has ever not punted for two straight weeks?
Quote: SOOPOO
Pretty sure the Bills didn’t punt last week. I wonder if a team has ever not punted for two straight weeks?
I will gladly offer you seven cups of coffee to your one cup of coffee that the Bills will have a punt tonight.
https://wizardofvegas.com/article/steeler-talk-week-2-and-vitriol/
I also am going to put Monday vitriol and MNF predictions at the end. I'll spoil MNF this time; I got the Bills right, but thought they were laying too much...and...(snicker) I called for a surprise Vikings upset.
Come for the Steelers talk, stay for the vitriol! Or, come for the vitriol and leave when you're done reading that.
. Glad I didn’t take that bet. But they didn’t punt until almost halftime. We’re you aware Bills hadn’t punted in 4 of their previous 6 games? That had never been done in NFL history before.Quote: DRichQuote: SOOPOO
Pretty sure the Bills didn’t punt last week. I wonder if a team has ever not punted for two straight weeks?
I will gladly offer you seven cups of coffee to your one cup of coffee that the Bills will have a punt tonight.
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The Bills do have a very difficult schedule. And already are being creamed by injuries. Possibly missing 3/4 of starting secondary next week (Hyde, Jackson,White). But Allen is now the best player in football. His most important play was his 10 yard run on 3rd and 9. He would not be denied!
Quote: SOOPOOWe’re you aware Bills hadn’t punted in 4 of their previous 6 games?
I was not but still would have offered the bet.
Quote: DRich
The important thing you missed is that betting against the Browns is just as strong of a play
the Browns are favored by 4 or 4.5 (right now - that may change) tonight at home against the Steelers
I would say that betting against them tonight is a very good play
.
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: DRich
The important thing you missed is that betting against the Browns is just as strong of a play
the Browns are favored by 4 or 4.5 (right now - that may change) tonight at home against the Steelers
I would say that betting against them tonight is a very good play
.
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Pre season the Steelers we’re supposed to be one of the worst teams in the league. And now they lost their best player, TJ Watt. Not saying the Browns are anything special. These are two bad teams. I of course took Steelers money line with the ‘early win at 7’ promotion. I will also take the under. Remember, on pointspread bets I tend to hit nearly 50%!
Quote: SOOPOO
Pre season the Steelers we’re supposed to be one of the worst teams in the league. And now they lost their best player, TJ Watt. Not saying the Browns are anything special
this preseason ranking from SI has the Steelers with 97 points to the Browns 81
and the Steelers are ranked ahead of 11 other teams
of course that was before they lost Watt
and not that it means a lot anyway - just saying -
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https://www.si.com/nfl/2022/09/06/nfl-preason-power-rankings-bills-packers-rams
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Quote: AitchTheLetterWhat do yall think about Aaron Judge's chances on hitting a homer tonight?
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I think it's a good bet if you're getting the boost on it again.
Quote: AitchTheLetterWhat do yall think about Aaron Judge's chances on hitting a homer tonight?
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Around 1/3? Isn’t that around how frequently this year he has hit a home run in games he has started?
Quote: Mission146Quote: AitchTheLetterWhat do yall think about Aaron Judge's chances on hitting a homer tonight?
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I think it's a good bet if you're getting the boost on it again.
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I may know someone who took free money betting on him doing it with boosts and against him without them….
Quote: AitchTheLetterWhat do yall think about Aaron Judge's chances on hitting a homer tonight?
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he's hit 60 homers in 143 games - on average he's hit one every 2.38 games
according to the link DraftKings odds for Wednesday were +160
if you bet $1.00 one hundred times that he would hit one you would win 42 times - in a hundred games he would hit about 42
they would have payed you 42*1.60 = $67 profit on your winning bets
you would have lost $1.00 58 times - you would have profited by $9.00 having made 100 bets of $1.00
it looks like it was a great bet with a 9% edge unless I'm missing something or I somehow calculated wrong which is very possible
Mission will straighten me out if I made an error
maybe DraftKings is factoring in pressure - they're speculating that the added pressure will reduce the chances that he'll hit one
https://www.oddsshopper.com/articles/mlb/aaron-judge-home-run-odds-hit-61st-62nd-pirates-wednesday-september-21
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Quote: Mission146Quote: AitchTheLetterWhat do yall think about Aaron Judge's chances on hitting a homer tonight?
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I think it's a good bet if you're getting the boost on it again.
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On Draftkings they have it at +205 for him to hit a HR tonight. I haven't checked any of the other sites yet but I threw $5 on it for giggles.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: AitchTheLetterWhat do yall think about Aaron Judge's chances on hitting a homer tonight?
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Around 1/3? Isn’t that around how frequently this year he has hit a home run in games he has started?
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He has hit 60 HR in 144 games played. Averages out to one HR every 2.4 games. Though he has had a few multi-HR games so that is just the statistical average not the actual number of games with a HR.
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: DRich
The important thing you missed is that betting against the Browns is just as strong of a play
the Browns are favored by 4 or 4.5 (right now - that may change) tonight at home against the Steelers
I would say that betting against them tonight is a very good play
.
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I predict Browns 27, Steelers 13.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: AitchTheLetterWhat do yall think about Aaron Judge's chances on hitting a homer tonight?
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Around 1/3? Isn’t that around how frequently this year he has hit a home run in games he has started?
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Aaron Judge has appeared (to this point in the season) in 143 games and has started in 139 of those games. I do not know if there is a stipulation that cancels the bet if Aaron Judge does not start, but we would assume that he would start anyway.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=judgeaa01&t=b&year=2022
It would appear that he has played no fewer than seven innings in a game, so I am going to go with the 143 number.
Aaron Judge has 60 Home Runs in the season, but has eleven games with multiple Home Runs; as a result, he has hit a Home Run in 49 unique games this season.
The probability of Aaron Judge, based on this season alone, hitting a Home Run is therefore:
(49/143) = 0.34265734265*
I would say that was a great estimate by SOOPOO.
With that, we can calculate a fair Moneyline for this event. The first thing that we want to do is index this to losing $100 or winning x.
(.34265734265 * x) - (.65734265735 * 100) = 0
x = 191.836735
We can confirm this here by placing a Moneyline of 191.836:
https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html
Which yields an Implied Probability of 34.3% and confirms our findings.
The current odds of this event happening are +195 with the straight bet on DraftKings, so that would imply that we are at a slight advantage straight up as:
(.34265734265 * 195) - (.65734265735 * 100) = 1.08391608175
Thereby yielding an expected profit of $1.08391608175 on this bet just based on Aaron Judge. However, the expected starting pitcher for the Red Sox is Michael Wacha, and as this website notes:
https://www.pinstripealley.com/2022/9/22/23365135/yankees-mlb-rivalry-series-preview-red-sox-aaron-judge-probable-pitchers-taillon
Quoting in part:
Quote:Michael Wacha has been quite good for the Red Sox, because of course. His 2.61 ERA in 114 innings jumps off the page, and even though he’s been considerably worse by FIP or xERA, its not like he’s been the luckiest guy in the world. He’s seen a three-year decline in his strikeouts, but like Taillon, has traded that for better command in the zone, fewer walks and home runs.
With that, it sounds as though this pitcher gives up fewer home runs than the average pitcher does. However, with the Profit Boosts that I have seen recently being given out, if one of those is offered, then it's pretty much going to be an expected profit regardless of who the pitcher is...as far as I can tell. For example, yesterday's boost on this event was 60%, so if that remains the same, you would want this bet all day.
*Of course, this ignores the matchups against whoever the starting pitcher is against whoever they are playing, which I wouldn't know anything about and wouldn't really know how to analyze particularly well. I guess I would start with what percentage of Home Runs that guy gives up and go from there, but I can't even begin to know where from there would go. Secondly, this wouldn't account for matchups against potential relief pitchers and the probability of those relief pitchers coming in, etc. etc.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: Mission146Quote: AitchTheLetterWhat do yall think about Aaron Judge's chances on hitting a homer tonight?
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I think it's a good bet if you're getting the boost on it again.
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I may know someone who took free money betting on him doing it with boosts and against him without them….
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It wasn't me, but I would tend to believe such a thing is highly likely. Offsetting, as I have mentioned, is something that I like for those with low bankroll such as to guarantee profits and/or make a loss impossible. Even people who do not have a low bankroll may find satisfaction in locking up guaranteed profits on something like this, but making the bet that does not have the boost, it must be mentioned, would detract from the overall value as we would assume it is not a good bet on its own.
Quote: SOOPOORemember, on pointspread bets I tend to hit nearly 50%!
You are such a braggard. Mine seem to be closer to 40%,
Quote: Mission146Quote: SOOPOOQuote: Mission146Quote: AitchTheLetterWhat do yall think about Aaron Judge's chances on hitting a homer tonight?
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I think it's a good bet if you're getting the boost on it again.
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I may know someone who took free money betting on him doing it with boosts and against him without them….
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It wasn't me, but I would tend to believe such a thing is highly likely. Offsetting, as I have mentioned, is something that I like for those with low bankroll such as to guarantee profits and/or make a loss impossible. Even people who do not have a low bankroll may find satisfaction in locking up guaranteed profits on something like this, but making the bet that does not have the boost, it must be mentioned, would detract from the overall value as we would assume it is not a good bet on its own.
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Correct. The EV of all my offers might have been $20 but I liked $13 in free money. And I like giving casinos some -EV bets because (I think?) it is good cover play. Hopefully, I’ll never know!
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredroosterQuote: DRich
The important thing you missed is that betting against the Browns is just as strong of a play
the Browns are favored by 4 or 4.5 (right now - that may change) tonight at home against the Steelers
I would say that betting against them tonight is a very good play
.
link to original post
Pre season the Steelers we’re supposed to be one of the worst teams in the league. And now they lost their best player, TJ Watt. Not saying the Browns are anything special. These are two bad teams. I of course took Steelers money line with the ‘early win at 7’ promotion. I will also take the under. Remember, on pointspread bets I tend to hit nearly 50%!
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I "like*** " the Steelers in Tonight's game.
***: Like may be too strong a word, but I did have 250 @ +320 on them to win by 4 (or more).
Quote: ksdjdjQuote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredroosterQuote: DRich
The important thing you missed is that betting against the Browns is just as strong of a play
the Browns are favored by 4 or 4.5 (right now - that may change) tonight at home against the Steelers
I would say that betting against them tonight is a very good play
.
link to original post
Pre season the Steelers we’re supposed to be one of the worst teams in the league. And now they lost their best player, TJ Watt. Not saying the Browns are anything special. These are two bad teams. I of course took Steelers money line with the ‘early win at 7’ promotion. I will also take the under. Remember, on pointspread bets I tend to hit nearly 50%!
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I "like*** " the Steelers in Tonight's game.
***: Like may be too strong a word, but I did have 250 @ +320 on them to win by 4 (or more).
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I love your takes!!!! Don’t forget to give me the college long shot pointspread/ over-under parlays. I’m going to try them this week!
