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Quote: SOOPOOAnd kewlj... there are more cases amongst the 'young' (anyone younger than me!), but the death rate for those under 40 is miniscule. Not zero, I know,
I am not arguing that healthy younger people are not at less risk than others. I would not use the word "miniscule". Let's see how "miniscule" you think it is when your grand daughter or grandson or young person in your family is part of that "miniscule" number that you so easily dismiss. AND I am not wishing that on you or anyone.
Bigger point is we are all in this together. You conveniently ignored the part where younger, so called healthy people get sick, and pass it on to others....their parents, grandparents, professors at college, college support staff.
Since schools and colleges were shutdown almost immediately. There is no data showing what occurs if they hadn't been. Chances are pretty good we would be looking at fatalities, 2, 3 maybe more times higher, NOT from that younger group, but from those that they spread it to. IT IS ALL ABOUT THE SPREAD and minimizing the spread and that can only happen if everyone works at it. Every person that says "I am younger and not as at risk" or "it is my right to not wear a mask" is putting everyone else, PUTTING ME at risk.
Quote: SOOPOOI know many of the long term effects. If you get one of the really bad near fatal cases that require you to be on a ventilator for weeks you are likely to have some level of pulmonary damage. There are a few with extreme weakness that seems to take extremely long to recover, and some have not even fully recovered after months. Very rare cardiac muscle dysfunction. You use the word 'many'. In a country of 300+ million, if there are 30 people who experience one of these severe complications, I don't think that really rises to 'many'. I think the really bad COVID-19 complications that linger are really 'few' when you look at the denominator.
You are talking shit about longterm effects that you know nothing about. That doctors and scientists and so called experts are only now beginning to see and understand. I am talking tip of iceberg stuff.
I had this virus. My case was moderate. No ventilator. No hospitalization. I WAS moderately sick for just about a whole month and had moderate lingering symptoms for weeks after and I am still not back to normal. I haven't wanted to mention my current condition because I get tired of the crap that people say (not here) but I still have fatigue issues. And I am not talking about not getting enough sleep and feeling a little tired. I am talking about sitting down in my recliner and being unable to stay awake in the middle of the day, sometimes just hours after I woke up. And I am still sleeping many more hours than I "normally" do.
I tried to dismiss and power through these lingering symptoms. I took a trip to California to surf (not internet) with my brother in late May. My surfing days were short and required a nap everyday as I quickly became exhausted. I am sure I was a hell of a lot of fun to be with. :( On June 4th, I went back to the casinos when they re-opened, I played a bit for about 10 days and scrapped it, citing concerns about people NOT doing what needed to be done to protect us all. What I kept to myself is that I couldn't physically handle it. I just didn't and still don't have the energy.
I go out everyday to try to get some exercise and I do deep breathing exercises along the way because my lung capacity is NOT what it used to be pre- me getting this virus. I will not take the elevator in my building down in the morning, because living on a higher floor others will get on along the way. And walking down 7 flights of steps just about wipes me out and I am just getting started each day. :( Coming home I will take the elevator, but I wait until I am alone or with only my brother as chances are we won't be adding new elevator riders after it leaves the lobby.
I am in my mid 30's, SOOPOO and yes I have had 2 heart surgeries, so you can throw me into the previous conditions group that are expendable. But I am not expendable. I want many more years and I can't do that without the help of others. No one is expendable...we are all in this together!
And finally, as for the cost of shutting down....yes that is a great toll. If it was forever, and it may be, then yes choices might have to be made. But right now, the smartest people in the world think we are not far away from a vaccine. We (the United States) can afford financially, to shutdown, and protect it's citizens for the short term. We are greatest and the richest country in the world. We can shutdown for a months or a year to whatever level is necessary to protect everyone and can afford to financially support everyone while doing that.
There may come a time when such a shutdown would be longer than we can afford and choices maybe have to be made then, but for now, we can shutdown what needs to be shutdown for the maximum number of citizens to survive. And again, my idea of shutting down, isn't everyone has to stay home locked up. You just have to eliminate activities that increase spread for the short term, SPORTS, schools, college, concerts, casinos, restaurant dining in, bars. Is that too much to ask for another 6 months to a year to save the maximum number of people. I think we would already be there if it wasn't an election year.
Quote: SOOPOOI know many of the long term effects. If you get one of the really bad near fatal cases that require you to be on a ventilator for weeks you are likely to have some level of pulmonary damage. There are a few with extreme weakness that seems to take extremely long to recover, and some have not even fully recovered after months. Very rare cardiac muscle dysfunction. You use the word 'many'. In a country of 300+ million, if there are 30 people who experience one of these severe complications, I don't think that really rises to 'many'. I think the really bad COVID-19 complications that linger are really 'few' when you look at the denominator.
And kewlj... there are more cases amongst the 'young' (anyone younger than me!), but the death rate for those under 40 is miniscule. Not zero, I know, but Terapined... if you are calling me naive you could not be more wrong. I am concerned about COVID-19 deaths, and infections... but it is not the most important thing in our society. The long term devastation of our economy and small businesses is important to our society. And even your 'heroes' like Cuomo realize that. The opening up here has definitely increased the likelihood of more cases. But you can only deprive people of their businesses for so long.
Actually, SOOPOO, you're missing the point. Five months in, there is no long term data. How can you claim to know long term effects when there is no long term data?
Unless you're claiming to be psychic, you have no real idea of the long term effects of something that is likely to have a 70% population penetration when it's said and done.
You have no idea if there are long term brain effects, which there appear to be. You have no idea of the long term effects on pregnant women. You have no idea if having the virus once results in a worse or better result if or when you get it again.
No long term data equals not knowing long term effects.
Shutting down economies as much as possible, as most of the world did back in March, was never about beating this virus. It was about slowing the spread and flattening the curve, so hospitals weren't overrun resulting in additional people dying that just couldn't get any care because there was no room. It was in a sense a long-term strategy to "buy time". Nothing more.
Advantage player's understand long-term thinking and strategies. Our president would make a horrible AP because he is incapable of looking long-term. He views everything through short term, quick fix lenses. That is precisely why the United States results are atrocious compared to almost every other country.
Nobody was going to blame this administration for this situation. So just imagine, if this administration had completely listened to the medical and science experts COMPLETELY from day 1 and shutdown for as long as need be to protect as many of it's citizens as possible. Yeah, the economic cost would still be tremendous, but even that the President could have used to his advantage. He could have said something like "we can afford to do this BECAUSE I built the greatest economy, which allows me to protect our citizens and when it is all over in a year, I can and will build the economy back". His numbers would be reversed right now.
But like I said, he is not an AP and doesn't think longterm. So it is what it is.
Sports just isn't going to work right now....as much as we all miss sports.
But baseball is also the only sport not to do the bubble thing, isolating players. So it is only a matter of time before some player takes it home to his family. Then players will balk.
Here's a Phillies aside for you, kewlJ. A friend of mine in a band inquired on getting cutouts placed behind home plate. It was cheap, but the Phillies said his cutout needed to wear a shirt. LOL. So that was the end of that (he's shirtless in the band most of the time). Almost all photos of the band have him shirtless. That was a little restrictive of the Phillies -- it's not like everybody wears a shirt at games.
Quote: redietzJust not going to work. If baseball blows up like this early, other sports have no chance of pulling this off.
Here's a Phillies aside for you, kewlJ. A friend of mine in a band inquired on getting cutouts placed behind home plate. It was cheap, but the Phillies said his cutout needed to wear a shirt. LOL. So that was the end of that (he's shirtless in the band most of the time). Almost all photos of the band have him shirtless. That was a little restrictive of the Phillies -- it's not like everybody wears a shirt at games.
Unless things have changed, going shirtless at Yankee Stadium is a no-no. They make exceptions for small groups posing for a camera, but taking off your shirt is going to get you ejected.
Quote: billryanUnless things have changed, going shirtless at Yankee Stadium is a no-no. They make exceptions for small groups posing for a camera, but taking off your shirt is going to get you ejected.
Really? Wow. At the old Vet, people took their shirts off inside all the time. Of course, that was 20 years ago, so my knowledge is dated. When did the Yankees start banning shirtlessness?
Quote: redietzReally? Wow. At the old Vet, people took their shirts off inside all the time. Of course, that was 20 years ago, so my knowledge is dated. When did the Yankees start banning shirtlessness?
No idea. I just know I've seen ushers and security tell people to put their shirts on.
Quote: billryanAs of two weeks ago, there were dozens of NYPD officers with either lung scarring or blood clots who are or are going on long term disability. For anyone to say this might be affecting thirty people nationwide is beyond naive.
I'll use your post as a backdrop to answer all the misconceptions regarding my recent posts. I feel like you guys are like 'fake news' now! I wasn't referring to lung injury in my 'thirty' example. There are many rare examples (amputation needed, liver failure, stroke), but lung injury I think is the most common long term negative effect. I have posted many times about colleagues telling me about patients who have gotten through the crisis due to the 'magic' of ventilators, but whose lungs are shot and will need the ventilator for the rest of their sorry lives.
Kewlj, I am also in a 'high risk' group (age/diabetes) and do take personal precautions (mask mostly, but handwashing has increased 10 fold from before pandemic). When my governor allows me to eat out with precautions.... I do. I think you underestimate the importance of sports in America. It is a multibillion dollar business that supports so many more people than we can think of. And i think is also important to the quality of life of many more than you can count.
Reminding all.... my wife is a dentist... likely the absolute worst job to have with regards to being around aerosols from people's mouths. You could open up every store, every sporting event, every beach, and it likely is not a blip on the radar for my wife who (yes, gowned, masked, gloved) is in strangers mouths every day.
I think it was kewlj who asked 'if it was your grandson who died' or something like that.... sad true story....
At a 'party' last night, man who knew I was a Dr at a trauma hospital asks me about motorcycle accidents. Seemed out of place, but I told him that if society was just starting now... there is NO WAY motorcycles would be made legal. Kind of like cigarettes. He then told me that the reason he asked is he just went to a funeral of a young man (friend's son) who died in the motorcycle accident a few days ago, here in Buffalo. It's now over 5,000 deaths per year. EVERY one of the 100% avoidable by not riding motorcycles. And if it is 5,000 deaths per year I'll extrapolate that into 10,000 life diminishing results as well.
Why is riding a motorcycle legal? Because people ENJOY riding them! I can give you dozens of other similar examples. People are taking 'risks' by going to parties, having sex with new girlfriends, playing sports, because they enjoy those activities as well.
In summary.... i do not dismiss the seriousness of COVID-19. I was all aboard all the restrictions (I would have been way more restrictive than Cuomo, by the way) when the goal was to 'flatten the curve'. I am not so sure we are significantly decreasing the number of deaths as much as people want to believe, but rather spreading them out.
As stated numerous times, WHENEVER a governor decides to 'open it up' they will be inviting more deaths. It is just how many more deaths is acceptable to that state or community to avert the economic devastation, and that is a political discussion so I'll stop here.
Edit... sorry for this in 'general sports talk' thread. I thought I was responding in coronavirus math thread.
Quote: redietzReally? Wow. At the old Vet, people took their shirts off inside all the time. Of course, that was 20 years ago, so my knowledge is dated. When did the Yankees start banning shirtlessness?
Interesting
This is how Green Bay fans psyche out the visiting team
It gets so so cold up there for games. Visiting players hate it
As they enter the stadium freezing their nuts off, Packer fans will be screaming at them shirtless yelling that they are wimps
Quote: terapined
As they enter the stadium freezing their nuts off, Packer fans will be screaming at them shirtless yelling that they are wimps
I always wondered how many of those fans got sick and missed time at work
MLB is done, they just done know it yet, or they probably know it, just haven't acted. They will probably wait until there is a second outbreak among another team, and then pull the plug on this experiment.
Next up NBA. Unlike baseball, the NBA is playing and living within a bubble (when players aren't sneaking out to strip clubs). lol . We will see if this bubble situation makes a difference. I don't think it will, but we'll see.
I actually went down to WDW over the weekend. Long story, but it was a use-it-or-lose-it situation with a timeshare, and it was nice to get away for a day, but I digress. We drove by the Coronado Springs resort (where most of the NBA is staying), and every entrance to the resort was guarded by multiple police cars. Granted they were Disney cops, but they were stopping and inspecting every vehicle coming & going.Quote: kewljNext up NBA. Unlike baseball, the NBA is playing and living within a bubble (when players aren't sneaking out to strip clubs). lol . We will see if this bubble situation makes a difference. I don't think it will, but we'll see.
I think it is a situation where they will certainly know if someone has left the 'bubble,' and if the NBA sticks to their guns by forcing all players who have traveled outside the bubble to re-quarantine before returning to the team, there is a good chance the NBA will succeed.
Like you, I think baseball and possibly the NFL may be doomed, but I think the NBA will be fine. Too bad I'm not much of a hoops fan.
AND since the yankees/phillies games are being cancelled because of concerns about the phillies, they have gone ahead and matched up the Yankees and Orioles (who should have been playing the Marlins) on about 12 hours notice, which I guess is no biggie since there are no fans involved. LOL.
The whole MLB experiment gets weirder by the minute.
from the article:
"“The biggest adjustment we’ve had to make is accounting for the lack of home-field advantage,” Mason said. “Every team and venue holds a certain value, which is baked into the lines. But when we remove the emotional and psychological element of a home advantage, the odds have to be adjusted.”
Morrow said that over-under totals on baseball are having to be adjusted because of the new rule that puts a runner on second base in extra innings. “It’s much more likely that extra innings will have multiple runs,” he said. The addition of the designated hitter in the National League will also bump up run totals in that league’s games."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/28/sports/coronavirus-sports-betting.html
Quote: lilredroosteranybody play APBA baseball?
I'm pretty sure it's still out there
I played it as a kid - had a friend who had all the stats memorized - he would always beat me
I can't remember how it's played - but I remember it was pretty fun
I played a little bit, I was still young when these games started to move to electronic versions. Loved both Earl Weaver Baseball and Pursue the Pennant. For a long time now, the best has been Diamond Mind. I've been ranked number one in their online game for over a year now. And I plan on playing as sparingly as possible to hold on to that.
Quote: DRichDid you guys as youngsters have a copy of the Baseball Encyclopedia? I was probably 10 when my Dad got me one for Christmas. I can't even imagine how many hours I spent reading that book. It had the stats for every major league player in it. Today we take the internet for granite.
I got the first Total Baseball for Christmas around the same age. Read it so much, it quickly became raggedy and filled with notes. I was fascinated by the Total Player Rating based on linear weights. I'm glad to see much of that research still holds up today.
Quote: billryanRuth had a tremendous advantage with Lou Gerhig batting behind him. Without Gerhig, I think Ruth would have been walked 250-300 times a season. There will never be another combination like those two.
Had Gehrig not been on the team, it would have been an advantage for the Yankees for Ruth to walk that much. Even in his very best season, in at-bats when he didn't walk, he made an out 64% of the time, and hit a home run only 11% of the time. Bob Meusel would have been hitting directly behind Ruth and he had a .902 ops. Opponents would have been much better off throwing strikes to Ruth.
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mlbpa-agreement-on-seven-inning-doubleheaders
I think the goal is to make it through this "regular" season quickly and get to the modified playoffs.
Some teams already have completed 7 games. This irregular season is going to be over very fast imo.
Quote: TomGHad Gehrig not been on the team, it would have been an advantage for the Yankees for Ruth to walk that much. he made an out 64% of the time, and hit a home run only 11% of the time.
I'm not so sure about that
in 1921 they walked him 145 times in 693 plate appearances - more than one in 5
he still got 168 RBIs
how many RBIs would the Yankees have lost if they walked him 3 out of 4 times?........................a lot
in addition to his 59 home runs that year he hit 44 doubles and 16 triples - more extra base hits that weren't homers than homers
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ruthba01.shtml
Quote: lilredroosteranybody play APBA baseball?
I'm pretty sure it's still out there
I played it as a kid - had a friend who had all the stats memorized - he would always beat me
I can't remember how it's played - but I remember it was pretty fun
When I was a kid we had a 40 game APBA season with 8 teams. We even kept stats. On a rainy day we would play all day. Loved it,
Quote: lilredroosterI'm not so sure about that
in 1921 they walked him 145 times in 693 plate appearances - more than one in 5
he still got 168 RBIs
how many RBIs would the Yankees have lost if they walked him 3 out of 4 times?........................a lot
in addition to his 59 home runs that year he hit 44 doubles and 16 triples - more extra base hits that weren't homers than homers
All the evidence strongly shows walking Ruth every time would have been a bad strategy. You can calculate the linear weights from what he did and compare that to being walked every time. (I'll probably do that later). Bill James used simulations to show why it's bad. (New Historical Baseball Abstract, page 784-85; using his 1921 season, interestingly enough).
In 1921, Ruth had 457 total bases and 145 walks, for 602 bases. He also made 353 outs. If he walked every time, he would have accounted for over 700 bases and zero outs.
Pipp and Meusel combined for 264 hits, with 132 being for extra bases. Imagine if half the time all those hits came with an extra runner on base (as well as some of the hits from Frank Baker and others who batted fourth, fifth, and sixth).
Quote: TomGAll the evidence strongly shows walking Ruth every time would have been a bad strategy. You can calculate the linear weights from what he did and compare that to being walked every time. (I'll probably do that later). Bill James used simulations to show why it's bad. (New Historical Baseball Abstract, page 784-85; using his 1921 season, interestingly enough).
In 1921, Ruth had 457 total bases and 145 walks, for 602 bases. He also made 353 outs. If he walked every time, he would have accounted for over 700 bases and zero outs.
Pipp and Meusel combined for 264 hits, with 132 being for extra bases. Imagine if half the time all those hits came with an extra runner on base (as well as some of the hits from Frank Baker and others who batted fourth, fifth, and sixth).
yeah, I can see it now - you're right
it's hard to see because it's counterintuitive
Imagine his numbers if the walked Ruth everytime.
In 1921, Ruth had 602 bases. If he walked everytime, he'd have had 700. Interesting, but meaningless. Baseball is scored by runs, not bases. With the guys batting behind him failing seven out of ten times, I'd have to guess the Yankees would have scored less runs.
Quote: billryanWith the guys batting behind him failing seven out of ten times, I'd have to guess the Yankees would have scored less runs.
The fifth and sixth hitters for the Yankees that year did indeed fail to get a hit 69.3% of the time. But Babe Ruth himself failed 62.2% of the time. Less than six hits per 100 at bats is only marginally better. Decreasing that failure rate to 0% would have absolutely increased the amount of runs the Yankees scored by a significant amount.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/08/01/cardinals-coronavirus-outbreak/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_virus-mlb229pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans
Quote: billryanIn 1931, Lou Gerhig drove in 185 runs from the #4 spot. Babe Ruth batted third and had 46 homers and 130plus runs driven in.
Imagine his numbers if the walked Ruth everytime.
In 1921, Ruth had 602 bases. If he walked everytime, he'd have had 700. Interesting, but meaningless. Baseball is scored by runs, not bases. With the guys batting behind him failing seven out of ten times, I'd have to guess the Yankees would have scored less runs.
I see Tom beat me to the punch. Casual baseball fans not privy to the statistics that go into determining the value of a certain event (walk, stolen base, sacrifice bunt, etc..) underestimate the value of a walk tremendously. Ruth had a high number of walks because pitchers would not just throw one down the middle on a 3-1 count. That is not the same as intentionally walking a player.
Quote: billryanHow many double plays would the guys behind him have hit into with Ruth on first every time they got up?
𝟔𝟕...................................(-:}
my post was all wrong - sorry about that
at the time I didn't realize it was not a real fight
it's an exhibition with all kinds of different rules and objectives
I don't think it's worth betting on unless just for fun
https://www.cbssports.com/boxing/news/mike-tyson-vs-roy-jones-jr-fight-card-rules-ppv-price-date-and-things-to-know-for-the-exhibition-match/
Quote: SOOPOOCasual baseball fans not privy to the statistics that go into determining the value of a certain event (walk, stolen base, sacrifice bunt, etc..) underestimate the value of a walk tremendously.
Lots of people also underestimate the negative value of outs. Also how these values change as the scoring environment changes. This is the chart I like to use: http://www.tangotiger.net/customlwts.html - It's over 10 years old now, so it may not be exactly correct for the current homerun / strikeout era, but definitely great for any historical analysis. Fangraphs also has some great articles on values and linear weights.
Second. I didn't really pay all that much attention when the NHL format was introduced. Near as I can tell teams #5 through #12 are doing a "play in" extra round to the playoffs. Ok, I get that.
But the teams #1 thru #4 are doing some sort of round robin just to play and stay fresh during the extra play in round. And this round robin will determine seedings 1 through 4. Is that correct? If that is the case, then the regular season meant nothing. A team like the Boston Bruins who had a great season finishing first could end up a 4 seed. ???
Although on the other hand, what does seed mean, without home ice advantage. ???
Quote: kewlj
Although on the other hand, what does seed mean, without home ice advantage. ???
In theory it means they get to play the easier schedule the lower their seed is.
some of the best crazy ones are his missed dunks - I'm lovin' it
Kevin Love is 6'8"..........................(-:}
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/03/sports/basketball/ja-morant-grizzlies-dunks.html?action=click&module=Features&pgtype=Homepage
Over to MLB... looking at the NL East standings as of today, the Marlins sit atop the division with their 2-1 (.667) record... and are a full game behind the 2nd place Braves who sit at 7-4 (.636)! Interesting times, indeed.
I think the same thing happened with the Reds.
So today, resting at home, I watched the Phillies/Yankees double header with the new double header 7 innings rule. Anyone want to guess my feelings on that? lol yep, I hate it.
In baseball you have your starting pitchers, your middle relief guys and your late inning set up and closers. With 7 innings you completely eliminate the middle relief guys. Teams can go right from starters to set up guys and closers. It takes a segment of the game, middle relief away. That may be a teams strength or weakness. I just don't like changing the game like this. Anyone else?
Quote: billryanThis season is so fooked that I don't mind them experimenting with the rules. Just so they think carefully about keeping them next year or whenever things return to normal.
I agree. In a regular season, 7-inning double headers would be an outrage, but this season has no ties to historical comparisons with regard to stats, etc. It’s like the strike season of ‘81 and others. So do what they can to get some games in. Or cancel it altogether if necessary.
At least 7 innings has some feeling of precedent from high school games.
And from the minors. Where I grew up, we has a single-A team. Single games were, of course, 9 innings, but all their doubleheaders were 7 innings.Quote: smoothgrhAt least 7 innings has some feeling of precedent from high school games.
I'm a traditionalist as well. Like others have said, I don't mind these rule changes for this season, but I don't think I'd like to see them when things get back to normal.