NokTang
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December 21st, 2017 at 7:05:02 AM permalink
I've tried the usual methods, google and all the rest.

Just need/want to know which team(s) can win their last two games and get into the NFL playoffs. No reliance on others losing or winning, just "win and in". I heard orally the Ravens but have not been able to confirm it or any others. Thanks for saving me a long struggle to get some facts. Happy Holidays as well.
onenickelmiracle
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December 21st, 2017 at 8:14:31 AM permalink
Atlanta falcons I think.
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ThatDonGuy
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December 21st, 2017 at 8:57:58 AM permalink
Chiefs are in with a win, since they have the tiebreaker over the Chargers.
Chiefs are also in if the Chargers and Raiders both lose.

Saints and Panthers clinch at least a wild card with a win.

Rams are in with a win or a Seahawks loss.

I think that's it - the wild card races are too close for anyone to clinch this week other than Saints/Panthers.

...I stand corrected; Atlanta does clinch a wild card with a win, since even if they end up 10-6 and both New Orleans and Carolina end up 11-5, the only other possible wild cards that can reach 10-6 are Seattle, Dallas, and Detroit, and Atlanta beat all three this season, so the Falcons would win any tiebreaker.
GWAE
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December 21st, 2017 at 11:48:29 AM permalink
did you try searching that web thingy?

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standings/playoffrace
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NokTang
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December 21st, 2017 at 9:31:16 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

did you try searching that web thingy?


https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standings/playoffrace



Yes...That in fact was the first link to the inquiry. It doesn't answer my question which actually remains unanswered..

Which team(s) can win their last two games and get into the playoffs irregardless of who else wins/loses?

Thanks and kind regards.
NokTang
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December 21st, 2017 at 9:34:32 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Chiefs are in with a win, since they have the tiebreaker over the Chargers.
Chiefs are also in if the Chargers and Raiders both lose.

Saints and Panthers clinch at least a wild card with a win.

Rams are in with a win or a Seahawks loss.

I think that's it - the wild card races are too close for anyone to clinch this week other than Saints/Panthers.

...I stand corrected; Atlanta does clinch a wild card with a win, since even if they end up 10-6 and both New Orleans and Carolina end up 11-5, the only other possible wild cards that can reach 10-6 are Seattle, Dallas, and Detroit, and Atlanta beat all three this season, so the Falcons would win any tiebreaker.



Thanks for your kind attempt. I'm still not at the end of my search and question. I'd swear I heard the Ravens could win both of their last two games and get in no matter what, but it was talk. This is what started my interest(along with making betting decisions and travel plans). Happy Holidays.
NokTang
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December 21st, 2017 at 9:38:25 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Chiefs are in with a win, since they have the tiebreaker over the Chargers.
Chiefs are also in if the Chargers and Raiders both lose.

Saints and Panthers clinch at least a wild card with a win.

Rams are in with a win or a Seahawks loss.

I think that's it - the wild card races are too close for anyone to clinch this week other than Saints/Panthers.

...I stand corrected; Atlanta does clinch a wild card with a win, since even if they end up 10-6 and both New Orleans and Carolina end up 11-5, the only other possible wild cards that can reach 10-6 are Seattle, Dallas, and Detroit, and Atlanta beat all three this season, so the Falcons would win any tiebreaker.



Thanks for your kind reply. That's a start however it seems to imply winning this weekend vs needing to win both this and next as well as some conditional outcomes of other teams. What I thought was an easy question has turned into a bloody mess. If so much money wasn't on the line I wouldn't care, but I have to fly to the sportsbook, get a room, and avoid prostitutes in the bars.
onenickelmiracle
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onenickelmiracle
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December 21st, 2017 at 9:44:37 PM permalink
Quote: NokTang

Thanks for your kind attempt. I'm still not at the end of my search and question. I'd swear I heard the Ravens could win both of their last two games and get in no matter what, but it was talk. This is what started my interest(along with making betting decisions and travel plans). Happy Holidays.

I did just hear win win guaranteed wild card for Baltimore on NFL Network, NFL total access.
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GWAE
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December 22nd, 2017 at 2:49:38 AM permalink
It is easy to figure out. Take the playoff spots available, then take the top wild card teams and there you have it. If they are listed as a wild card right now that means they control their own destiny. It is possibe for lower ranked teams to make it but it means they win out and then get others to lose.
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Mission146
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December 22nd, 2017 at 10:58:19 AM permalink
Quote: NokTang

Thanks for your kind attempt. I'm still not at the end of my search and question. I'd swear I heard the Ravens could win both of their last two games and get in no matter what, but it was talk. This is what started my interest(along with making betting decisions and travel plans). Happy Holidays.



Okay, here you go:

AFC Definitely In: Patriots, Steelers, Jaguars

AFC "Controls Own Destiny": Chiefs, Titans, Bills*

*The Titans, Ravens and Bills are all 8-6. The Bills, however, would win the, "Common Opponents Record," tiebreaker against the Titans if both teams win out, except the Titans played the Ravens and won, which takes precedence. Beyond that, the Bills and BAL don't have enough common opponents for that to work, so then it goes to strength of victory (combined record of opponents beaten) which would go to BUF if both teams won out. Not least of which is because for BUF to win out, they must beat the Patriots once and the Ravens played the Browns twice.

---It's the one time that playing in a tough division can actually help you, if the tiebreakers get that far, but they usually don't. That's the fifth tiebreaker.

*All three of TEN, BUF, BAL can win out, and if that happened, TEN and BUF would be in.

*The Chiefs win their division if they win out.

NFC Definitely In: PHI, MIN

NFC Controls Own Destiny: LA (Rams), New Orleans, Carolina, Atlanta*

*This is much easier as the current two non-winners of the NFC South currently enjoy a better record than any other WildCard team. One thing to keep in mind is not all three of NO, CAR and ATL actually CAN win out, because ATL plays both one more time.
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beachbumbabs
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December 22nd, 2017 at 1:33:27 PM permalink
Mission wrote It out, above and I haven't compared, but this article seems to be exactly what you are looking for. Ravens are the first team discussed.

http://www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/2017/12/22/16807036/nfl-playoff-scenarios-2017-wild-card-dolphins-raiders-cowboys
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ThatDonGuy
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December 22nd, 2017 at 3:07:31 PM permalink
Quote: NokTang

Thanks for your kind attempt. I'm still not at the end of my search and question. I'd swear I heard the Ravens could win both of their last two games and get in no matter what, but it was talk. This is what started my interest(along with making betting decisions and travel plans). Happy Holidays.


It's possible; I thought you meant, who could clinch a spot in Week 16.

I thought I read somewhere that the wild cards could come down to "strength of victory" (i.e. the better combined record of the teams that the potential playoff teams beat). There was a rather lengthy segment on the Fox pre-game show last Sunday that tried to list all of the things that had to happen for Dallas to get into the playoffs.

As for the Ravens, I don't see how they aren't a wild card if they win their last two games.
This would make the Ravens 10-6.
If either Buffalo or Tennessee loses either of their last two games (and Buffalo is at New England this weekend - and the Patriots won't rest anybody as they are in a fight with the Steelers for home field advantage if they meet in the AFC Championship), the best that team can be is 9-7, which is also the best the AFC West's wild card team can be.
If the Ravens, Bills, and Titans all win their last two games, they all finish 10-6. Since they didn't all play each other, and their conference records would all be 8-4, it goes to games against common opponents, assuming there are at least four, and there are - Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Miami, and Oakland. The Ravens would be 5-0 against them, the Bills 4-1, and the Titans 3-2.
Last edited by: ThatDonGuy on Dec 22, 2017
lilredrooster
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December 24th, 2017 at 1:28:02 AM permalink
this link is a very detailed and complicated explanation of playoff possibilities from the New York Times.

cowboys/seahawks - winner stays alive; loser eliminated


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/12/21/upshot/2017-nfl-playoff-trees-week-16.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Dec 24, 2017
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Mission146
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December 24th, 2017 at 8:09:23 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy


If the Ravens, Bills, and Titans all win their last two games, they all finish 10-6. Since they didn't all play each other, and their conference records would all be 8-4, it goes to games against common opponents, assuming there are at least four, and there are - Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Miami, and Oakland. The Ravens would be 5-0 against them, the Bills 4-1, and the Titans 3-2.



A.) The Titans beat the Ravens.

B.) The Ravens and Bills do not have four common opponents, so the common opponents doesn't apply.

C.) Because B., it then goes to best record against teams that the Bills have beaten and the Ravens have beaten...which favors the Bills because they would have beaten New England in that scenario. Might favor them anyway, since two of the Ravens wins will come against a team with 0-2 wins anyway.***

***But, again, to assume everyone wins out is to assume the Bills beat New England, so they inherit that record for these purposes.

***Currently, teams the Bills have beaten combine for 46 wins, whereas the teams the Ravens have beaten combine for 39 wins (and, that's after beating the Colts).
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ThatDonGuy
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December 25th, 2017 at 3:42:34 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

A.) The Titans beat the Ravens.


Irrelevant in a 3-way tie, as head-to-head applies only if you beat every team in the tie or lost to every team in the tie.

NFL.com has worked all of the playoff scenarios out, now that the Sunday games are over. The Ravens are in with a win, a Bills loss to Miami (who may be resting players as they're out already), or a Titans loss to Jacksonville (who shouldn't be resting anybody as a win and a Steelers loss gives them a first-round bye). Since the Ravens and Chargers didn't play each other, any tie involving the two goes to conference record, which would go to the Ravens (7-5 against 6-6). It says that if Baltimore loses and Tennessee and Buffalo both win, the Titans and Bills get the two wild cards (there was no head-to-head sweep; the Titans would have an 8-4 conference record and get in ahead of the 7-5 Ravens and Bills; checking the Ravens and Bills against each other, they didn't play each other, they would have the same conference record and record against common opponents, but the combined records of the teams the Bills beat would be better than the teams the Ravens beat regardless of what happens on Christmas Day or in week 17, in part because two of Baltimore's wins were against Cleveland, so the Bills get the second wild card spot.)
NokTang
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December 25th, 2017 at 7:20:07 PM permalink
My "if, then" bet is alive with the Ravens but only small money(money line) as the big money "if" bet(based on the point spread) was lost when they didn't cover. Thanks for your contributions. ESPN reports the Steelers have clinched a bye with the Monday Night win. We'll get better outlines in a day or two I'm sure. Happy Holidays.
Mission146
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December 26th, 2017 at 11:00:53 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Irrelevant in a 3-way tie, as head-to-head applies only if you beat every team in the tie or lost to every team in the tie.

NFL.com has worked all of the playoff scenarios out, now that the Sunday games are over. The Ravens are in with a win, a Bills loss to Miami (who may be resting players as they're out already), or a Titans loss to Jacksonville (who shouldn't be resting anybody as a win and a Steelers loss gives them a first-round bye). Since the Ravens and Chargers didn't play each other, any tie involving the two goes to conference record, which would go to the Ravens (7-5 against 6-6). It says that if Baltimore loses and Tennessee and Buffalo both win, the Titans and Bills get the two wild cards (there was no head-to-head sweep; the Titans would have an 8-4 conference record and get in ahead of the 7-5 Ravens and Bills; checking the Ravens and Bills against each other, they didn't play each other, they would have the same conference record and record against common opponents, but the combined records of the teams the Bills beat would be better than the teams the Ravens beat regardless of what happens on Christmas Day or in week 17, in part because two of Baltimore's wins were against Cleveland, so the Bills get the second wild card spot.)



1.) Jacksonville has two more losses than the Steelers. The Steelers and Pats get the byes, Pats get it throughout unless they lose and Steelers win.

2.) I thought I had the precise scenario. Either way, as of the time of my post, NFL.com had it as Bills/Titans, so I was just trying to reverse engineer why. Perhaps the Titans has some other TB on the Ravens.

3.) That was the reason the Bills got in ahead of the Ravens in my post before those games.
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horse
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December 27th, 2017 at 2:58:58 AM permalink
All of the jockeying around and what-ifs are interesting to read, but doesn't it all once again feel like an exercise in futility when all is said and done, as the damn Patriots sit by and watch/wait to snatch the title one more time?

After a year in which idiot footballers nearly ruined the game with their disrespectful, foolish protests, fans deserve more than the Boring Bill and Brady show.
lilredrooster
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December 27th, 2017 at 3:33:13 AM permalink
this link clearly shows the playoff possibilities resulting from the matchups in the final games of the regular season:

https://www.si.com/nfl/2017/12/26/nfl-playoff-picture-week-17-scenarios
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NokTang
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December 27th, 2017 at 8:54:07 PM permalink
Quote: horse

All of the jockeying around and what-ifs are interesting to read, but doesn't it all once again feel like an exercise in futility when all is said and done, as the damn Patriots sit by and watch/wait to snatch the title one more time?

After a year in which idiot footballers nearly ruined the game with their disrespectful, foolish protests, fans deserve more than the Boring Bill and Brady show.



Coach Don Shula labeled Bill "Bellicheat" and it goes without saying, they have cheated their way to greatness. People I suppose like to root against cheaters like Bellicheat and Brady? Latest is grabbing the Pittsburgh linebacker to get inside information of the Steelers. Disgusting. They both will lose some Hall of Fame votes for their antics but of course, still great in the big picture.
lilredrooster
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December 28th, 2017 at 3:16:49 AM permalink
anybody who thinks the Pats are a lock or even an almost sure thing to win the Super Bowl is badly mistaken. They are tough competitors but after 2005 they have only won it only 2 times. 2 out of 12. This suggests that according to Oddsshark's quoting of Bovada the Pats are +240 to win it all and this means they are a very bad bet and a person can find good bets betting against them.


http://www.oddsshark.com/super-bowl/futures
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horse
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December 28th, 2017 at 3:24:06 AM permalink
Quote: NokTang

Coach Don Shula labeled Bill "Bellicheat" and it goes without saying, they have cheated their way to greatness. People I suppose like to root against cheaters like Bellicheat and Brady? Latest is grabbing the Pittsburgh linebacker to get inside information of the Steelers. Disgusting. They both will lose some Hall of Fame votes for their antics but of course, still great in the big picture.



I don't see the Harrison signing as an intelligence-gathering move. Pats don't need it, they've always handled the Steelers without it. Could be as simple as having been depleted at that position.

Cheated their way to greatness? Very loose-fitting. Nothing blatant, most of which is denied. Deflategate was a joke. If it weren't NE no one would care.

You don't "cheat" your way to appearing in 7 SB's, with championships 10 years apart on teams with receivers turnovers constantly being sky high.

I'm pulling for the Ravens this time around. Like with the Yankees, it's time for a new face.
beachbumbabs
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December 28th, 2017 at 4:18:27 AM permalink
Skol, Vikings! Shocking how well they've rallied around new leadership during the season.

Would love to see them be the first team to play a Superbowl in their home stadium.
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TomG
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December 28th, 2017 at 9:12:13 AM permalink
Quote: NokTang

it goes without saying, they have cheated their way to greatness.



If their cheating was really such a driving force why do you choose to describe all their winning as "greatness." If you really believed letting some air out of footballs in a game they won 45-10 was what caused all their Super Bowl wins, you wouldn't be using the term "greatness." If the cheating is all it takes to be the best, why haven't any of the other 31 teams done the same things and won just as much? If it really was a sense of integrity, honesty, and fairness, then all it would take is for one other team to break ranks and play unfairly and they too would have five Super Bowl wins. Since no one else can match the success of the Patriots, the only possible answer I can see they do it so much better than everyone else. Which means there is no possible way the Patriots "greatness" has been achieved by anything other than complete competence and being superior to the competition.

Quote: NokTang

Latest is grabbing the Pittsburgh linebacker to get inside information of the Steelers. Disgusting.



Expect the Patriots have fines, suspensions, and lose draft picks over this one. And if not that, then just expect a few people to make completely stupid comments. If this is what people consider cheating, then that is shows clearly that any talk of cheating just shows how little their "cheating" has mattered.
TomG
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December 28th, 2017 at 9:15:57 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

It is easy to figure out. Take the playoff spots available, then take the top wild card teams and there you have it. If they are listed as a wild card right now that means they control their own destiny. It is possibe for lower ranked teams to make it but it means they win out and then get others to lose.



Not always that easy. A few years ago there were three AFC teams tied at 8-7. None of them were able to win and make the playoffs without help from other games:

https://www.si.com/nfl/audibles/2013/12/22/afc-wild-card-scenarios-week-17

It's always baffled me how people (perhaps only Americans) are so bothered by the idea of playing 60 minutes and calling the game a tie, but perfectly OK having the teams play for four months and if things are still tied just use some arbitrary and convoluted formula to decide who is declared the "winner"
Mission146
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December 28th, 2017 at 10:07:57 AM permalink
Quote: TomG



Expect the Patriots have fines, suspensions, and lose draft picks over this one. And if not that, then just expect a few people to make completely stupid comments. If this is what people consider cheating, then that is shows clearly that any talk of cheating just shows how little their "cheating" has mattered.



I don't want to say, 'Stupid,' comment, but it certainly baffled me. I don't see how, in any world, picking up a free agent could ever qualify as cheating. If the Steelers didn't want the Pats to potentially snatch up Harrison, then they could remedy that situation by, I don't know, not releasing him in the first place, I guess.

This is far from the first time the Pats have picked up someone let go by the Steelers, the most notable recent example was RB LeGarrette Blount, or as I like to call him, "Smokin' Blount," who served the Pats very well for the remainder of that, as well as the next couple of, seasons.
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AZDuffman
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December 28th, 2017 at 11:12:41 AM permalink
Quote: TomG


It's always baffled me how people (perhaps only Americans) are so bothered by the idea of playing 60 minutes and calling the game a tie, but perfectly OK having the teams play for four months and if things are still tied just use some arbitrary and convoluted formula to decide who is declared the "winner"



Other than the last level coin flip. I would not call any of the NFL tiebreakers "arbitrary." Head to head is pretty simple. Teams know the division games they need to win. Ditto conference. I remember 1992. The NFC was killing the AFC. The Bills would always beat the NFC in the regular season, making their fans say they were "better."

The Bills tied the Dolphins in wins, but had to go the wild card route. They had beaten the Steelers in the regular season but had to play away since the Steelers won their division. Problem was the Bills won the "wrong" games. Bills fans were upset, but the rules were clear.
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horse
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December 28th, 2017 at 11:18:24 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

anybody who thinks the Pats are a lock or even an almost sure thing to win the Super Bowl is badly mistaken. They are tough competitors but after 2005 they have only won it only 2 times. 2 out of 12. This suggests that according to Oddsshark's quoting of Bovada the Pats are +240 to win it all and this means they are a very bad bet and a person can find good bets betting against them.


http://www.oddsshark.com/super-bowl/futures



Won it ONLY 2 times and were in it FOUR since 2005? With the same QB who won it THREE times prior?

No no one's a lock. But aside from where the good bets are there is no team more likely to do it over and over.
Rigondeaux
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December 28th, 2017 at 11:25:01 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

anybody who thinks the Pats are a lock or even an almost sure thing to win the Super Bowl is badly mistaken. They are tough competitors but after 2005 they have only won it only 2 times. 2 out of 12. This suggests that according to Oddsshark's quoting of Bovada the Pats are +240 to win it all and this means they are a very bad bet and a person can find good bets betting against them.


http://www.oddsshark.com/super-bowl/futures



You can take the other side on 5d, I'm pretty sure. Maybe some other places.

Better still, you could probably find someone here to take a bet and neither of you pay juice.
NokTang
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December 28th, 2017 at 4:14:30 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

If their cheating was really such a driving force why do you choose to describe all their winning as "greatness."



Good morning Tom G.....Thanks for being somewhat polite. Please review the links below, which I got with a quick search. But first mate, since you mention "Americans", kindly tell us why your soccer players fake injuries and are always bitching at the referee at basically all levels of play from the Premier League down to the under 17 games. Thanks mate. Going for some pigs blood for breakfast now.

https://www.elitedaily.com/sports/history-new-england-patriots-allegedly-cheating/910436

https://www.cheatsheet.com/sports/the-new-england-patriots-biggest-scandals.html/?a=viewall
horse
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December 28th, 2017 at 4:30:01 PM permalink
Quote: NokTang

Good morning Tom G.....Thanks for being somewhat polite. Please review the links below, which I got with a quick search. But first mate, since you mention "Americans", kindly tell us why your soccer players fake injuries and are always bitching at the referee at basically all levels of play from the Premier League down to the under 17 games. Thanks mate. Going for some pigs blood for breakfast now.

https://www.elitedaily.com/sports/history-new-england-patriots-allegedly-cheating/910436

https://www.cheatsheet.com/sports/the-new-england-patriots-biggest-scandals.html/?a=viewall



I skimmed past this post and thought "what American cares anything at all about soccer?"

That "history" as the article refers to, is qualified by "allegedly". The same type of bs is thrown around over here every time Trump upsets liberal snowflakes with the truth.
NokTang
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December 28th, 2017 at 4:35:41 PM permalink
Quote: horse

I skimmed past this post and thought "what American cares anything at all about soccer?"

That "history" as the article refers to, is qualified by "allegedly". The same type of bs is thrown around over here every time Trump upsets liberal snowflakes with the truth.



Soccer litters my TV every day. It's that or ping pong. The point was and remains about the members remark regarding Americans and how it's quite obvious attempts to cheat in soccer go on each and every game. They attack Phil Ivey as not being "sporting" yet think faking contact to draw penalties in a sport is "sporting"? As far as President Trump, well that's for another place. I'll take a tax break any time I can get one, thanks Mr. President.
TomG
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December 28th, 2017 at 4:48:34 PM permalink
Quote: NokTang

kindly tell us why your soccer players fake injuries and are always bitching at the referee at basically all levels of play from the Premier League down to the under 17 games.



Most likely reason is because they are not nearly as talented as their opponents and have to resort to these sort of tactics and still can't win. More evidence that the Patriots greatness has been achieved by being more talented and better prepared. In fact, in the first article, the only evidence supporting two of the allegations were that the Patriots played so well, the only possibility is that it must have been cheating. But then why aren't the other 31 teams doing? Because they just aren't as great. The plays against Baltimore were done out in the open with complete permission from the refs. Even if it was done after the rule changes, it wouldn't be any more cheating than holding by an offensive lineman holding or pass interference by a defensive back. And those are thing the Patriots do far less than all other teams, either because they cheat less than every other team, or because they are simply better than all the rest. If you really want to criticize the Patriots, why aren't you even bringing up the Gronkowski hit from a few weeks ago. That's the reason I can't stand them this year.

When the Patriots beat the Colts 45-10, an opposing player said the balls were too flat. The referees then used a poor testing measure that was not conclusive and only re-tested the balls the Patriots supplied, not the Colts. The rules were also ambiguous about whether it was even against the rules if the pressure stayed within the allowable limits. Which they may very well have. We'll never know because of the poor methods used.

Filming the Jets practice 10 years ago is the only one that seems to hold up. But I can guarantee the rest of the league would gladly let the Patriots film all their practices if it meant they lose their first round pick

Quote: NokTang

https://www.elitedaily.com/sports/history-new-england-patriots-allegedly-cheating/910436

https://www.cheatsheet.com/sports/the-new-england-patriots-biggest-scandals.html/?a=viewall



I love that second article: "Was the tactic deceiving? Yes. Was it illegal? No. At least, not at the time; the formation is now illegal." and "This scandal doesn’t actually involve Bill Belichick." And that's two of the four instances they could find of the Patriots cheating over the past 40 years
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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December 31st, 2017 at 5:27:43 AM permalink
nice game to watch 4:25 est on Fox.

Panthers at Falcons

Falcons need a win and/or Seahawks loss to get a wild card spot.

Panthers can win the NFC south if they win and Saints lose.

should be a very competitive game
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
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