JoelDeze
JoelDeze
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October 6th, 2017 at 11:51:44 AM permalink
Note the time and date of the posting for line consistency. If I buy something or recommend a buy, note the juice. The picks are not ranked in any specific order. I will reserve one post beneath each set of picks to add any game breakdowns for the entire slate later on.

Week 6 Picks:

Wash St. -2.5 (-275 / 250)
TCU -13.5 (-110 / 100)
UCF -16.5 (-120 / 100)
Georgia -16.5 (-130 / 100)
UL Monroe -6.5 (-110 / 110)
Penn St. -13.5 (-110 / 100)
Miami FL -2.5 (-110 / 100)
Tex. San Antonio (UTSA) -12.5 (-110 / 100)
Colorado St. -9 (-110 / 100)

Syracuse (-170 ML) - Suggested Only - Did not Wager - Consider it a pick only
“Know where to find information and how to use it; that is the secret of success.” – Albert Einstein
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
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October 6th, 2017 at 11:52:11 AM permalink
These are short summary notes for the games (in no specific order):


Penn St. is ranked 45th in ATS Rankings going 3-2 ATS with a +8.2 cover diff advantage above the spread margin. Northwestern is ranked 73rd in ATS Rankings going 2-2 ATS with a -3.0 cover diff disadvantage below the spread margin.

Penn St. is undefeated and has perhaps the best running back in the nation on its team in Saquon Barkley, who is averaging over 113 yds/pg rushing and 77.2 yds/pg receiving. They are averaging over 41 points per game.

As good as Penn St. is on offense, they are even better on defense. They only allow just over 9 points per game and 280 yds of total offense.

Northwestern is playing at home but they have issues on both sides of the line and will not be able to dominate in the trenches.




Georgia is ranked 5th in the nation in ATS Rankings, going 4-0 ATS with an overwhelming +17.13 cover diff advantage above the spread margin. Vanderbilt is ranked 74th in ATS Rankings, going 2-2 with a -4.0 cover diff disadvantage below the spread margin.

Vanderbilt started the year playing lights out and then got hammered by Alabama and lost a dejected match-up with Florida last week. Georgia is very similar to Alabama defensively and houses a tremendous 2-RB tandem in the backfield with Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. If QB Jake Fromm doesn't play, Eason is the much stronger QB and the more accurate passer. Both QBs could be starters on any team in the SEC.




UL Monroe is Ranked 24th in the nation in ATS rankings going 3-1 ATS with a +6.5 cover diff above the cover margin.

Texas St. is Ranked 75th in the nation in ATS rankings going 2-2 ATS with a -4.38 cover diff below the cover margin.

ULM has a solid offense (38th in the nation) and are averaging a little over 38 points per game. Texas St. is averaging 12 points per game. Both teams are allowing over 30 points per game to opponents.




Miami is ranked 6th in the nation in ATS Rankings, going 2-0 ATS against FBS opponents with a +13.5 Cover Diff advantage above the spread margin. FSU is ranked 123rd in the nation, going 0-3 ATS with a lackluster -8.83 Cover Diff disadvantage below the spread margin.

FSU, before the season began, was in everyone's playoffs conversation with Clemson in the ACC. After the first game with Alabama where they lost their QB sensation Deondre Francois, everything has gone downhill from there. They are 1-2 overall and coming up against a Miami Hurricanes team that is playing extremely well on both sides of the ball and seeking blood.

Miami's offense will face a very stout FSU defense, but they will be too strong for the Seminoles in this one.




TCU is playing at home and are currently undefeated this season. They come up against a strong West Virginia team led by former Florida QB Will Grier.

TCU is ranked #2 in the nation in ATS Rankings, going 2-0-1 against FBS competition with a +21.75 Cover Diff advantage on non-push games above the spread margin. West Virginia is ranked 55th in ATS Rankings, going 1-1-1 against FBS competition with a +4.5 Cover Diff advantage on non-push games above the spread margin.

TCU's best win this season is a 12 point win over a power house offensive machine in Oklahoma St. Both teams can score well and both have solid defenses but TCU is a much stronger team on both sides of the ball. WVA's defense won't be able to keep up with TCU away. TCU will want to make a statement in this game.




Colorado St. is ranked 18th in ATS Rankings, going 3-1 ATS with a +13.5 cover diff advantage above the spread margin. Utah St. is ranked 54th in ATS Rankings going 2-2 with a +4.63 cover diff advantage above the spread margin. CSU is playing well offensively and defensively, and have played a very strong schedule to date. They played surprisingly well against Colorado and Alabama. The 23 points they scored against Alabama's defense is the most points the Tide have given up to an opponent this year. Utah St. got crushed by Wisconsin early on and BYU should not be considered a good win.




UTSA won last year in the same week by 23 points against Southern Miss. They return 7 starters, including their QB on offense and 7 starters on defense. They are currently undefeated (3-0) and are playing strong offensively and defensively, with momentum on both sides of the ball showing solid up measurements after 3 games.

UTSA is ranked #3 in the nation in ATS Rankings, having gone 2-0 ATS against FBS competition, with a +19.5 cover diff advantage above the spread margin. Southern Miss is ranked 43rd in ATS Rankings, going 2-1 but showing a -4.83 cover diff disadvantage below the spread margin.

UTSA is playing at home and will be too much for Southern Miss.




Kentucky is only ranked #67 in the nation in ATS Rankings, having a 2-2 ATS against FBS competition with a very modest 0.88 cover diff advantage above the spread margin? So, why take them? Maybe because Missouri is ranked last at #130 in ATS Rankings, going 0-3 ATS against FBS competition with a whopping -26.5 cover diff disadvantage below the spread margin!

Kentucky has won the last two meetings straight up and this one won't be any different. The cats may win by 4 touchdowns! What can I say... Misery loves company... (Metallica).




Oregon is down to their 3rd string QB and Wash St. is playing extremely well. Wash St. is 3-1 ATS with a +4.63 cover diff advantage above the spread margin. Oregon is ranked 65th in the nation with a 2-2 ATS and a +1.38 cover diff advantage above the spread margin.




UCF is ranked #1 in the nation in ATS Rankings, having gone 3-0 ATS with a monstrous +26.83 cover diff advantage over the spread margin. They are tremendous on both sides of the ball and cruised against a very strong Memphis team last week. Cinci is 3-1 with a +0.75 cover diff advantage over the spread margin.


Hopefully some of the notes help you out and/or some of the picks.

Enjoy.
Last edited by: JoelDeze on Oct 6, 2017
“Know where to find information and how to use it; that is the secret of success.” – Albert Einstein
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
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October 6th, 2017 at 1:21:01 PM permalink
Because I do not want to edit the first post or timestamp, the following game:

UL Monroe -6.5 (-110 / 110)

Should read...

UL Monroe -6.5 (-110 / 100)

... not 110.
“Know where to find information and how to use it; that is the secret of success.” – Albert Einstein
Romes
Romes
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October 6th, 2017 at 1:42:02 PM permalink
Thanks for posting these Joel. I don't do a lot of football (college or nfl) betting... but one way to tell if people seem to know what they're doing is to get a decent sampling size of games together and checking out the results/win percentage/etc.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
monet0412
monet0412
Joined: Feb 18, 2016
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Thanks for this post from:
onenickelmiracle
October 6th, 2017 at 2:55:08 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

Thanks for posting these Joel. I don't do a lot of football (college or nfl) betting... but one way to tell if people seem to know what they're doing is to get a decent sampling size of games together and checking out the results/win percentage/etc.



I second this statement! Any chance Joel can break down the NHL for me and others... especially the Puck Line. I would like to start some sort of a sports betting thread where we can collectively take some sort of a challenge. Something like trying to turn 1000 into 10000 in a certain amount of time like 3 or 4 months. or even 10k into 100k. Something like that stock challenge website I read about. My main problem is laziness. I hate taking the time daily to go bet sports or watch lines. I don't want to put the money on websites because of the crazy rollover rules that it takes to get your money in and out. I dunno.

I still have a hard time putting in my free bets every week to try to win 30k for free!

Someone was supposed to be picking the picks for me *cough* and I was going to plug them in. Needless to say I blew off the last two weeks of the NFL Free Contest Picks... I just hate taking the time at the Kiosk. I started to look into it and I probably could get over 100 entries for free but man that is a lot of time pushing buttons at the Kiosk.
Last edited by: monet0412 on Oct 6, 2017
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
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October 6th, 2017 at 3:03:12 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

Thanks for posting these Joel. I don't do a lot of football (college or nfl) betting... but one way to tell if people seem to know what they're doing is to get a decent sampling size of games together and checking out the results/win percentage/etc.



Welcome Romes.

I also forgot to add Kentucky in the first post but I added the notes.

So, adding it now (note the date/time stamp):

Kentucky -9.5 (-115 / 100)

Notes are in the other notes.
“Know where to find information and how to use it; that is the secret of success.” – Albert Einstein
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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October 6th, 2017 at 5:58:08 PM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

Welcome Romes.

I also forgot to add Kentucky in the first post but I added the notes.

So, adding it now (note the date/time stamp):

Kentucky -9.5 (-115 / 100)

Notes are in the other notes.

Quote: Romes
Thanks for posting these Joel


Don't let it go to your head, Romes kisses a lot of ass. (-;
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
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October 6th, 2017 at 11:07:53 PM permalink
Late night for me.

Adding 3 unique 3-game parlays to the mix as well. I'm basing these on a specific chart I have for ATS ranking difference.

Parlay 1:

Miami FL -2.5 (-110)
Marshall -14 (-110)
Fresno St. -17 (-110)
$50 to win $300

Parlay 2:

Miami -2.5 (-110)
Texas Tech -16 (-110)
Marshall -14 (-110)
$50 to win $300

Parlay 3:

Texas Tech -16 (-110)
Idaho -5.5 (-110)
Utah +3.5 (-110)
$50 to win $300

Here is the table. I'm pretty much choosing the top line teams from the left column with great diff ranges. However, you could also reverse the table and choose right hand teams. The ranking is 1-130 with lowest being best and greatest being worst. Subtracting the ranks produces the diff. Could just convert to ABS but I'm tired tonight. The above are 3 test wagers I'm trying out.

TeamRankDiffOpponentRank
Miami (FL)6-117Florida St.123
Fresno St.10-109San Jose St.119
Marshall8-103Charlotte111
Notre Dame14-101North Carolina115
Northern Ill.12-94Kent St.106
Texas Tech40-86Kansas126
Idaho42-80Louisiana122
Auburn49-79Ole Miss128
Utah13-70Stanford83
Georgia5-69Vanderbilt74
Ohio35-69Central Mich.104
Virginia Tech22-64Boston College86
Kentucky67-63Missouri130
TCU2-53West Virginia55
La.-Monroe24-51Texas St.75
Syracuse29-48Pittsburgh77
Boise St.81-44BYU125
Tulane41-44Tulsa85
Iowa61-40Illinois101
UTSA3-40Southern Miss.43
Fla. Atlantic56-40Old Dominion96
Colorado St.18-36Utah St.54
Georgia St.53-36Coastal Caro.89
UCF1-31Cincinnati32
Navy64-29Air Force93
Penn St.45-28Northwestern73
Wisconsin58-26Nebraska84
Oklahoma28-23Iowa St.51
Memphis99-22UConn121
Western Ky.97-21UTEP118
Miami (OH)105-19Bowling Green124
Southern California116-13Oregon St.129
Clemson15-4Wake Forest19
Louisiana Tech36-3UAB39
Temple109-1East Carolina110
Arkansas St.791Ga. Southern78
Army West Point1203Rice117
Hawaii1085Nevada103
Ball St.826Akron76
Louisville11210NC State102
FIU9811Middle Tenn.87
Alabama4413Texas A&M31
Arizona8817Colorado71
Duke5720Virginia37
San Diego St.2521UNLV4
Ohio St.6628Maryland38
Minnesota5235Purdue17
Michigan6936Michigan St.33
Washington5939California20
Western Mich.5039Buffalo11
Oregon6539Washington St.26
LSU11343Florida70
Arkansas9548South Carolina47
Houston6861SMU7
Toledo9262Eastern Mich.30
Kansas St.9164Texas27
Appalachian St.9478New Mexico St.16
“Know where to find information and how to use it; that is the secret of success.” – Albert Einstein
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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October 6th, 2017 at 11:54:37 PM permalink
JoelDeze

Can you explain why a parlay is better than straight up bets?

Is the parlay cards giving better odds than if you were to bet straight up?

Are the lines better on lines parlays cards?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
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October 7th, 2017 at 7:42:20 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

JoelDeze

Can you explain why a parlay is better than straight up bets?

Is the parlay cards giving better odds than if you were to bet straight up?

Are the lines better on lines parlays cards?



Lower overall risk with higher payout odds. That is all I was going for in this scenario. Even though there are (3) 3-game parlays, there are only 6 unique teams. My goal is to win (1 of 3) which will net me +$200. If I went 4-2 SU in this scenario I would be risking $660 to win $600 and would end up winning $400 and losing $220 for a net gain of +$180.

The overall goal is just doing a test with the ATS ranking differences to see if there is any value in doing parlays with them while trying to mitigate overall risk since I already have substantial capital at risk (CAR) for this week. My goal was to stay under $1,750 CAR for Week 6 NCAA.
“Know where to find information and how to use it; that is the secret of success.” – Albert Einstein

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