JoelDeze
JoelDeze
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October 8th, 2017 at 10:09:18 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Your ATS ranking methodology seems to have an underlying assumption that nothing changes during the year to make a team have a different probability of beating the spread.

1. A team like Alabama almost never covers the spread when it is playing a cream puff team from a non-power-5 conference. The public expects Alabama to beat the creampuff by 40 pts -but 12 out of the last 12 times it has not happened. You can make a lot of money if you understand that.

Conversely, Alabama often beats the spread against an SEC team that is good but not great: the players get up for the game, or whatever.

Your ATS analysis will not pick up that pattern in Alabama's ATS performance.

2. The spread often underestimates the impact of injuries to players that occur in the last week or two -or the impact from the return of injured players.

3. The spread often overreacts to the previous week's performance -particularly when a team is surprisingly awful or surprisingly dominant. You might analyze how well teams do against the spread a week after they beat the spread by 14 points or a week after they failed to cover the spread by 14 points.

4. A new quarterback can improve greatly during a season (ditto for an offensive line or a defense with a new coordinator) -causing a team to underperform ATS early in the year and beat the spread later in the year.

I'm not saying that your ATS analysis is worthless -it will probably pick up some interesting trends. But "asking the right questions" is important to any mathematical analysis, and its not clear to me that you are asking the right questions.



No, I'm not relying solely on that. All of the picks have to be system driven. There are many calculations that go into the initial pick. The ATS rankings only provide me additional visibility as to who is covering and by how much in each scenario.

There is a lot more data involved here.

If Alabama is playing Troy for instance, the scenario I look at is how are they covering as a P5 playing a G5 at home/away and by how much cover diff. The AI drives into scenario data. This week I just simplified it to provide an overall cover diff.

I look at the scenario data after correlation with system picks.

I can understand why you would assume that though. Are you interested in me posting a complete ATS breakdown? I can try to table format that but it's a lot of data.
“Know where to find information and how to use it; that is the secret of success.” – Albert Einstein
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
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October 11th, 2017 at 1:33:29 PM permalink
Week 7 Picks



I may add more picks throughout the week but will make sure that they are unedited so the timestamp remains. I'll post game info below this topic after I reserve it. I forgot to click the link and sort by time but I'm sure you all can figure it out.

Only one parlay this week and it's for tonight's game with Troy and South Alabama.

Good Luck.
“Know where to find information and how to use it; that is the secret of success.” – Albert Einstein
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
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October 11th, 2017 at 1:34:56 PM permalink


Florida is battered in many areas coming into this game. They will more than likely be without Cleveland and Toney, the best two offensive players at this point. More importantly, starting right guard Brett Heggie is out due to a concussion and is listed as doubtful. They already are feeling effects of the 10 suspensions that happened before the season began, including their #1 WR and RB combo.

Texas A&M is ready to breakout. They are 4-0 ATS this season against FBS competition with a +5.2 diff advantage above the cover margin. Florida is 2-3, with a -1.7 cover diff disadvantage below the cover margin.

Even though Florida is playing at home where the Gators have been fairly successful, the injuries and lack of offensive momentum under QB Franks is a sore indicator that points to Texas A&M winning this one outright.




Harbaugh will have Michigan ready to play for this one and expect a well managed game plan that will fix a few holes in the Wolverines' offense under QB O'Korn. Defensively, they have a tremendous advantage over Indiana's up-tempo offense. Michigan has won the last two games by 7 and 10. Turnovers will be a key in this game as both teams are prone to turnovers. Michigan has the edge by +2 over Indiana. O'Korn's INTs last week cost Michigan the game against Michigan St. Indiana's defense is decent but lacks finishing power in the 2nd half.




Army has won the last two contests by 25 points and 22 points. Eastern Mich has had some trouble against this service academy. Army is playing well, having returned 9 starters on offense this season. They are averaging almost 33 points per game.

Both teams have been stingy allowing points defensively. Army gives up 19.2 and E. Mich gives up 18.2. However, E. Mich is only averaging less than 19 points per game on offense. Army is very disciplined, +3 in TM and only committing 35 yds of penalties per game.




Both teams resemble each other in many respects. Both offenses score more than 40 points per game and both defenses allow roughly 27 points per game. They also both like to beat up on Kansas.

West Virginia has won the last two games. Last year, they won by 31 points.

Former Florida QB sensation Will Grier leads West Virginia against Texas Tech and they are playing at home. They've played a fairly difficult schedule so far this season, having lost to both Virginia Tech and TCU by 7 points apiece. Texas Tech's only loss was to Oklahoma St. by a touchdown.

On paper, these teams are fairly even but the home crowd, in that bumble bee covered yellow, gives the advantage to West Va, especially on critical 3rd down conversions.




Both teams have split the last two meetings, each winning by 3 points. Tennessee has dipped in momentum offensively every week since week 2. They are struggling to maintain possession, going -4 on turnover margin and averaging just over 26 min on time of possession. South Carolina hasn't been that much better offensively, rating out slightly a cut above Tennessee in almost all areas.

Defensively, the Vols are allowing over 250 yards rushing per game and the Gamecocks have been waiting to get their ground game going. This is primarily why the game management edge goes to South Carolina in this game. Tennessee has also been dealing with incredible negativity over the last couple of weeks and there have been many distractions for this team. South Carolina is +7 in TM and the ground game should provide a spark to maintaining ball control over the course of the game.




Marshall has played very consistently over the start of the season. Their only loss has been to NC State who is playing very solid right now. ODU is allowing opponents just under 35 points per game defensively, giving up almost 470 yards per game. Marshall has shown considerable up-tick momentum defensively the past 3 weeks and are allowing only 17.4 points per game, including only 340 yards per game. Time of Possession, game management and experience are in favor of Marshall.

Marshall is (4-1) ATS with a +7.7 cover diff above the spread margin. ODU is (1-3) ATS with a -12.13 cover diff disadvantage below the spread margin.

The ATS is a bit of a reach but defensively, Marshall gets it done.
Last edited by: JoelDeze on Oct 11, 2017
“Know where to find information and how to use it; that is the secret of success.” – Albert Einstein
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
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October 11th, 2017 at 2:24:45 PM permalink


Ohio won last year's match-up 30-24. This year, offensively, they are averaging over 38 points while Bowling Green is averaging over 19. Defensively, Bowling Green is allowing more than 34 points per game. Bowling Green is weak offensively and defensively.

Even though Ohio is 3-2 ATS, Bowling Green is (1-4) ATS with a -3.6 cover diff below the spread margin.

Ohio should win by two touchdowns.




North Carolina has won the last two years they've played Virginia. However, this year Virginia has stepped it up on both sides of the ball. Virginia is averaging almost 31 points per game and giving up 21. North Carolina is averaging 25 points per game and giving up 33. Against similar powered teams, North Carolina has lost by an average of 13 points. Virginia's only loss came to Indiana and they have good wins over Boise St. and Duke.

Virginia is (3-1) ATS with a +8.25 cover diff advantage over the spread margin. North Carolina is (1-5) ATS with a -5.5 cover diff disadvantage below the spread margin.




Auburn is starting to come alive. They are 5-1 and QB Jarrett Stidham is beginning to get more comfortable in the offense. Defensively, they are solid, allowing only 13 points and 290 total yards per game. LSU survived against Florida last week, only doing so because of a bobbled snap and a missed extra point by the Gators. Florida was winning the second half and would have more than likely won in OT. But, even Tigers have nine lives.

The LSU Tigers are not very good or deep in most areas on offense, and have not played very well this year. They are gaining 390 yards and just over 25 points per game. Defensively, they are consistent, giving up less than 19 points per game. They will have a tough task to face when going against an Auburn offense that is averaging almost 36 points per game and have a whopping 48.9 percentage conversion on 3rd downs.

LSU is overmatched, even at home.




UTSA has a good offense and an extremely strong defense. Defensively, TX San Antonio is allowing just over 260 yards and 18 points per game. North Texas is allowing more than 400 yards and 34 points per game.

Both teams know how to score with UTSA averaging 35 PtsGm and North Texas averaging 38 PtsGm. However, UTSA is converting almost 48% of the time on 3rd down while North Texas is averaging just 36%.

UTSA has the advantage on offense vs. North Texas's defense. UTSA also is (2-1) ATS against FBS competition, going +8.17 over the spread margin set by the oddsmaker.




Undefeated San Diego St. plays at home versus Boise St.

Boise St. has been lackluster on offense, averaging only 340 yards per game. Defensively, they are allowing over 24 points per game and have relied on their defense to keep them in most contests. San Diego St. is averaging close to 32 points per game on offense and only allow opponents 19 points per game. They have the more complete team and have a significant edge in rushing efficiency rating difference, and will look to enforce their 222 yds/pgm advantage over Boise St.

San Diego St. is looking to extend its lead in the Mountain West and are vying to compete in one of the New Years Six games. They will want to have an extremely good showing against a highly recognized team.
Last edited by: JoelDeze on Oct 11, 2017
“Know where to find information and how to use it; that is the secret of success.” – Albert Einstein
Romes
Romes
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October 12th, 2017 at 7:32:25 AM permalink
While some controversy, I again still just want to say, so long as you get the picks in before, I enjoy reading about your thoughts and seeing how you do as more data is collected - so thanks for that yet again!

Quote: AxelWolf

...Don't let it go to your head, Romes kisses a lot of ass. (-;

Can you taste how salty Axel is that I don't kiss his ass all the time??? ;-)


Edit - Any chance you could do NFL predictions? I know 'a little' about the NFL and nothing about college and would like to see if the very very little I know/research is anywhere along the same thought paths that you take.
Last edited by: Romes on Oct 12, 2017
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
gordonm888
gordonm888
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October 12th, 2017 at 11:48:51 AM permalink
JoelDeze, thanks for your reply about your methodology - it does make me place more weight on your recommendations.

Many years ago, I used to calculate power ratings for CFB and NFL teams -but I've decided that ESPN's FPI is about as good as almost anyone can do. And I realize that the sportsbooks use a very sophisticated proprietary model to calculate power ratings as a basis for setting their opening lines.

So, instead of reinventing the wheel on power ratings, I now try to pay attention to factors that I categorize as "inefficiencies in the line" to see where I might get an edge. But I'm always learning and anxious to learn more. I'll continue to read your predictions. Good luck with this.
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
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October 12th, 2017 at 1:30:12 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

JoelDeze, thanks for your reply about your methodology - it does make me place more weight on your recommendations.

Many years ago, I used to calculate power ratings for CFB and NFL teams -but I've decided that ESPN's FPI is about as good as almost anyone can do. And I realize that the sportsbooks use a very sophisticated proprietary model to calculate power ratings as a basis for setting their opening lines.

So, instead of reinventing the wheel on power ratings, I now try to pay attention to factors that I categorize as "inefficiencies in the line" to see where I might get an edge. But I'm always learning and anxious to learn more. I'll continue to read your predictions. Good luck with this.



Kenneth Massey, one of the former BCS computing ratings, keeps a consolidated listing of rankings for college football. It comprises pretty much every ranking scale system I've seen on the web.

However, I won't link the site due to my rankings being a part of the composite. You can do a search for it though. I find it more valuable than the FPI, which has its usefulness but is limited to one set of algorithms.

And, I've known Ken for 9-10 years. He is a good guy. He is always trying to get the numbers right.
“Know where to find information and how to use it; that is the secret of success.” – Albert Einstein
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
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October 12th, 2017 at 1:39:07 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

Any chance you could do NFL predictions? I know 'a little' about the NFL and nothing about college and would like to see if the very very little I know/research is anywhere along the same thought paths that you take.



I have a thread for NFL picks. I will update them every Friday. I'm 2-1 so far. Buffalo missed a push last week by 1 point. I went 1-1 last week. KC has been an easy cover so far this season. I'll update it tomorrow.
“Know where to find information and how to use it; that is the secret of success.” – Albert Einstein
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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October 12th, 2017 at 4:51:57 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

While some controversy, I again still just want to say, so long as you get the picks in before, I enjoy reading about your thoughts and seeing how you do as more data is collected - so thanks for that yet again!

Can you taste how salty Axel is that I don't kiss his ass all the time??? ;-)



I licked Axel once. No salt to speak of. Hint of lime, though. Shots on a sodium diet?
"If the house lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game."
DRich
DRich
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October 15th, 2017 at 8:02:21 AM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

Week 7 Picks





Another winning week, good job.

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