JDeze College Cover Picks

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October 20th, 2017 at 6:02:48 AM permalink

RAnge Rover is the only way to go, had the g63 for a while and it doesn’t compare to the rr

No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either

SM777

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October 21st, 2017 at 8:57:08 PM permalink

I think we're all anxiously waiting to see how Joel will turn his 5-11 (31.25%), -$667.50 performance into a winning week.

The phantom unposted parlay?! The multiple winning second half wagers?! The late night double up on the last game of the night?!

Which will it be this week?

DrawingDead

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Posts: 2266

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October 22nd, 2017 at 2:53:43 AM permalink

Quote: gordonm888
Actually, right now I am, in fact, blocking SM777, Axelwolf and NokTang so I do not have to see their posts when I scroll through this thread.

I have thanked SM777, Axelwolf and Noktang for their criticisms -and I was sincere, because I appreciated their input. I have an open mind and appreciate information. But they are repeating themselves and I find it tedious to read repetitious arguments, especially from angry people. And I find its much easier to navigate this thread to find something I want if it is not cluttered with their posts...<SNIP>...

Fair enough, i've got no quarrel with what you say G.8s, understood that if you find it is getting tedious, then you do. And if I did, and maybe I would if I spent more time in the thread, then I might possibly go for the same solution you just took.

On the other hand, about the matter of the discouraging disagreeable tone of the criticisms, if the substance of what they've said they've observed is accurate, then of course they would not be greeting any reincarnation of it laundered in a new thread with a warm tone, and they shouldn't. Maybe there's some other secret unstated motive they'd have, that can happen, even though I can't imagine what it would be. Any of us could misunderstand and misinterpret and be mistaken about things, but at least a couple of them I see involved in this have been around enough that it would seem a bit unusual that they'd have come to the same misunderstanding or personal vendetta simultaneously for no real reason. Could happen, but usually when I've gone 'ready-fire-aim' and am completely wrong I soon find I'm doing it by myself.

Personally I'd find it unpleasant to wade through a lot of football talk to figure out what I might want to think about the disagreement, and I'd do a poor job of it since I'm less knowledgeable about football than a random drunk in a sports bar. But here's what I care about: It is important that people are not inhibited at all from scrutinizing tout threads. Vigorously. Good, bad, and mediocre. And, those who are really making a sincere effort at the very difficult task of beating the lines in sports betting should generally welcome critical discussion if they want to continuously improve to do as well as possible at it. Getting that would be why someone doing that would legitimately be in a forum at all.

Yes, this is a different kind of criticism going on right now, but others clearly would like to eliminate all but "rah-rah go-team-go & we love our coach" happy talk, here and in others repeatedly before it. And that would be very, very bad for this forum and eventually for the reputation of the entire site and anyone connected to it - rightly given the well earned extremely unsavory reputation of the tout racket in general.

Quote: gordonm888
...<SNIP>...And Tinker says Hi! and Peter asked me to say Kissy-Kissy! to you.

Well now how nice, thanks, but I don't believe you 'bout that last thing, because I'm pretty sure Peter & Tinker are already kept quite busy with the group of folks who are determined to support a zealous belief in finding magic patterns among independent events and in making negative expectation gambling profitable through variations of martingale style progressive betting systems. Which is pretty much what this site exists to debunk, and also what a number of tout threads keep attracting, in case you weren't aware of that, again and again, as much as the baccarat system threads and the ridiculous "I'm a professional at roulette-dice-Lobstermania slots-etc" gibberish.

Oddly enough, they've been somehow quite enticing in particular to devoted baccarat and dice and slot machine believers with no interest whatsoever in any of the sports the "picks" threads are about, and those devoted followers get quite bothered by any reasoning or sensible methodology beyond "oooh nice person - free picks - yippee." Which was and is in evidence here, and is where I think Peter Pan and a lot of other magic fairies and unicorns and the like are kept pretty busy. Of course folks are entitled to not think rationally if some of them choose. Just as others are free to point it out - which is, again, pretty much the explicit main purpose for this site's existence, obviously. Unlike lots of others just a mouse click away in which basic math has been repealed and probably also gravity & whatnot if there are potential fans who'd like to think so.

Good night, good luck, and have fun.

Last edited by: DrawingDead on Oct 22, 2017

Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.

DrawingDead

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October 22nd, 2017 at 6:41:40 AM permalink

I have some good news for some of the folks who always seem to be very afraid that the nice people giving out free sports picks might stop or go away and they won't be able to get any more. A little secret is that ff those depending on that kind of wonderful generous niceness go to the internet address "Google.com" and then type in the word "free" + the word "sports" + the word "picks" and then push the "enter" button, they will get over 16,000,000 (sixteen million) results, no kidding, most of them links to sites with many nice talking super successful can't lose free pickers gathered within! Happy day! I haven't spoiled the secret by telling here, truly I promise.

Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.

JoelDeze

Threads: 49
Posts: 467

Joined: Apr 20, 2016

October 22nd, 2017 at 10:10:53 AM permalink

Using $100 as equal to 1.0u (units)

Week 6 Results:
ATS Picks: 7-3 +4.15u
Parlays: 1-2 +2.0u

Week 7 Results:
ATS Picks: 7-4 +2.0u
Parlays: 0-1 -0.5u

Week 8 Results:
ATS Picks: 5-11 -6.675u

Totals:
ATS Picks: 19-18 -0.525u
Parlays: 1-3 +1.5u

Total Units: +0.975u

“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson

Wizardofnothing

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October 22nd, 2017 at 8:58:56 PM permalink

Vegas dave is much better
14-4 last week 4-1 this week

No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either

lilredrooster

lilredrooster

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Posts: 6569

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October 23rd, 2017 at 1:10:36 AM permalink

Quote: Wizardofnothing
Vegas dave is much better
14-4 last week 4-1 this week

here are some details of Vegas Dave's arrest in April.

https://lasvegassun.com/news/2017/apr/19/indictment-of-vegas-dave-illustrates-how-casinos-u/

Please don't feed the trolls

Wizardofnothing

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October 23rd, 2017 at 1:24:48 AM permalink

Not sure what that has to do with his picks lol

No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either

JoelDeze

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Joined: Apr 20, 2016

October 25th, 2017 at 8:57:24 PM permalink

WEEK 9

SMU and Tulsa both have good offenses, but SMU has an advantage defensively in this match-up. Tulsa is allowing opponents more than 530 yards of offense and close to 38 points per game. SMU allows opponents 430 yards of offense and 30 points per game. SMU also has a decided plus turnover margin at +9 to +4 for Tulsa.

At home SMU is 3-0 ATS with a +10.67 cover diff advantage above the spread margin. Tulsa is 1-3 ATS away with a -12.88 cover diff disadvantage below the spread margin. They are not a good away team.

SMU has lost two in a row to Tulsa but last year's match-up was close and this year's SMU team has a more experienced starting lineup on both sides of the ball.

SMU wins in a shootout 48-35.

Texas Longhorns freshman quarterback Sam Ehlinger is questionable for Saturday having gone into concussion protocol on Monday. His status and availability is currently unknown. Sophomore Shane Buechele may have to resume his starting role this week.

Buechele hasn’t seen extended playing time in nearly a month after suffering an ankle injury in a 17-7 win against Iowa State. In that game, Buechele completed 19-of-26 passes for 171 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, while adding 13 carries for 42 yards.

Texas has a +7 TM advantage (1 to -6) over Baylor and has won the last two games outright. They've lost their last two games close (by 5 against Oklahoma and by 3 in OT versus Oklahoma St.). Baylor has lost 7 in a row.

Texas is 5-1 ATS with a +4.33 cover diff advantage above the spread margin. Baylor is 4-2 with a -1.67 cover diff disadvantage below the spread margin. Whether Ehlinger or Buechele plays, Texas still has a lot of injuries on offense. Banged up or not, the Longhorns are too much for Baylor.

Texas wins 37-23.

Michigan St. has won their last four games in a row against strong teams. Even though they are playing away, defensively they are only allowing 16.9 pts per game. They are 5-2 ATS with a +2.29 cover diff advantage above the spread margin. They have had some issues on offense but they match up well against a Northwestern defense that is allowing opponents to convert over 42% on third downs.

Northwestern has won two in a row but will be facing a very tough Michigan St. defense that is allowing opponents 260 yards of total offense. Northwestern are -5 in TM and are 4-3 ATS with a -0.5 cover diff disadvantage below the spread margin. They upset Michigan St. last year in a shootout 54-40, a game that the Spartans won't soon forget.

This game may be close and tight throughout the first three quarters.

Michigan St. wins 24-19.

Indiana will take its up-tempo offense to Maryland this week in what should be a very favorable match-up against an extremely weak defensive unit. Maryland is allowing opponents 36.7 points per game and giving up 50% conversions on third down match-ups. Indiana lost their last two games close, losing to Michigan and Michigan St. by one score.

Maryland has lost 4 out of their last 5 games, with their only win in this stretch against Minnesota. The Terrapins may struggle against a solid Indiana defensive unit that is showing a slight uptick in momentum. Turnover margin favors Maryland as Indiana has been turnover prone this season (-8).

Both teams have issues covering. Indiana is 3-3 ATS with a +0.83 cover diff. Maryland is 2-4 ATS with a -2.33 cover diff. However, the pace of the game will start to wear Maryland out late. Indiana has won the last two match-ups between these teams.

Indiana wins 30-20.

Notre Dame has played an impressive schedule and are a couple of points away from being undefeated. Their narrow loss to a very strong Georgia team is their only blemish of the season. They have systematically overmatched all of the teams they have played thus far. Both teams have 6-1 records but NC State lost to South Carolina and two of their wins are against unimpressive competition. Notre Dame dismantled Michigan St., USC, and was one turnover away from beating Georgia.

Defensively, the Irish are improving each week. Both teams are solid in turnover margin with the edge going to Notre Dame +10 to +8. NC State is allowing opponents 23 points per game while the Irish are allowing just over 16 points. Notre Dame is ranked 13th on Offense and 28th on Defense against quality competition. NC State is ranked 18th on Offense and 46th on Defense against decent competition.

Notre Dame is 6-1 with a monstrous +13.64 cover diff advantage above the spread margin. NC State is 3-3 ATS with a +2.75 cover diff advantage above the spread margin. The Irish are playing at home and need to continue to win impressively in order to stay within consideration for the college football playoffs. They will be prepared and ready to play.

Notre Dame wins 37-21.

South Carolina is playing well defensively. The Gamecocks are +7 in Turnover Margin and have a +6 advantage over Vandy. S.C. is only allowing opponents 19.3 points per game. Carolina is 5-2 ATS with a respectable +6.86 cover diff advantage above the spread margin. Vandy is 2-4 ATS with a -8.08 cover diff disadvantage below the spread margin.

Vandy's defense is showing a negative momentum trend (declining over the past four weeks) and they've lost four games in a row. The Commodores have lost the last two contests against the Gamecocks and are traveling to Carolina to play in this game.

Will Muschamp will have South Carolina ready to play.

S.C. wins 27-17.

Western Ky. may be 5-2 but they have played a tremendously easy schedule this season. The strongest two teams they've played this season are Illinois (2-5) and LA Tech (3-4) and they lost to both of them. FAU has a veteran team and has played Wisconsin and Navy, losing to both. All of their wins are against stronger competition.

FAU is 4-2 ATS with a +12.83 cover diff above the spread margin. Western Ky. is 2-4 ATS with a -5.58 cover diff disadvantage below the spread margin. FAU is 2-1 ATS away and Western Ky is 2-1 at home but FAU has a +9 cover diff advantage over WKY.

Western Ky. won the last two match-ups but they only returned 10 starters this year where FAU returned 18. FAU has a very improved coaching staff with Lane Kiffin and family running the show. Offensively, they are up-ticking and showing solid momentum over the last few weeks.

FAU wins 42-28.

Even though Kentucky took a loss to a strong Mississippi St. team, they have shown consistency on offense for much of the season. They are showing a slight downtrend defensively but they are still opportunistic in turnover margin, going +6 over the season.

Tennessee is reeling, having lost three in a row to Georgia, South Carolina and Alabama. The Vols are 0-6 ATS against FBS competition with a -11.75 cover diff disadvantage below the spread margin. Tennessee is scoring just over 19 pts per game while allowing opponents 27 points per game. They are -3 in TM.

Kentucky is playing at home and is looking to become bowl eligible this year.

Kentucky wins 28-17.

Purdue is ranked 90th in the nation on offense and 31st in the nation on defense. They face a Nebraska team that is ranked 107th on offense and 104th on defense. Even though Purdue hasn't been lights out on offense, neither has Nebraska. Both teams are averaging close to 25 points per game but defensively, Purdue is holding opponents to just over 19 points per game. Nebraska allows 31 points per game.

Purdue is 5-2 ATS with a tremendous +11.14 cover diff above the spread margin. Nebraska is 2-5 ATS with a -4.5 cover diff below the spread margin. Purdue is playing at home and should play well.

Purdue wins 31-20.

Washington St. comes into this game 7-1, with their only loss to a sub-par Cal team where Wash St looked very much asleep at the wheel. They were not prepared. Fast forward to the next week where Mike Leach had them roaring once again as they beat Colorado 28-0. They will need to play with energy and preparedness once again to beat a resilient Arizona team that is scoring 43 points per game. Washington St. is allowing just above 18 points per game. Who will win this battle up front?

Washington St. has a very good offense led by Luke Falk. They will have a good advantage against Arizona as Zona gives up almost 30 points per game to opponents. Washington is 5-2 ATS while Arizona is 3-3.

Washington State wins 34-24.

Fresno St. is the number 1 cover team in the nation. They are 5-0-1 against FBS competition with a whipping +18.4 cover diff advantage above the spread margin. They face a UNLV team that is 4-2 ATS with a +1 cover diff advantage above the spread margin. Fresno is playing at home and have a +4 TM diff advantage (+8 to +4) over UNLV. They are tremendous on defense and are currently #3 in the nation. They are showing a huge uptick on momentum defensively. Fresno has won their last 4 games including a big win against San Diego St. They are also averaging 32 points per game while allowing just over 17.

UNLV has lost their last 3 games by 31 points, 4 points and 24 points. They have an extremely weak defense and are giving up 36 points per contest.

Fresno St is too much at home and wins 44-17.

San Diego St. was embarrassed the last two weeks losing to Boise St. and Fresno St. by two plus scores. Make no mistake, this San Diego St. team is still very solid across the board. They crushed Hawaii last year 55-0. They have a +8 TM diff (+6 to -2) over Hawaii. They are facing a very weak Hawaii defense and should have good production against this unit.

Hawaii has lost 4 of their last 5 games. They play well on offense but are allowing opponents to score almost 36 points per game. They are also 1-5 ATS with a -9.33 cover diff disadvantage against the spread. If this was a surfing contest, it might be closer.

San Diego St. wins 35-24.

“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson

DRich

DRich

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October 26th, 2017 at 6:56:55 AM permalink

Joel, can you explain why your algorithm selects almost all favorites? It just seems odd to me because I think it is commonly known that casual gamblers tend to pick more favorites so there is generally a small bias in the lines favornig the underdog..

At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.

JoelDeze

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Posts: 467

Joined: Apr 20, 2016

October 26th, 2017 at 7:22:05 AM permalink

Quote: DRich
Joel, can you explain why your algorithm selects almost all favorites? It just seems odd to me because I think it is commonly known that casual gamblers tend to pick more favorites so there is generally a small bias in the lines favornig the underdog..

Sure.

Similar to some systems like ESPNs FPI, the base system component I use is called TSRS (True Statistical Rating of Strength). It handles inflation/deflation values for raw statistics by using standard deviation, among other criteria.

The second part is determining probability of scoring for offensive pieces and scoring mitigation from defensive pieces.

The third part is determining overall risk based on similar predictive analysis using regression models.

The fourth is determining current offensive and defensive momentum trends based on performance when playing strong or weak teams.

There are a couple of other smaller trending components.

Last, ATS ratings and ATS historical lines based on scenario driven data.

My system is going to find more teams on the oddsmaker favorite line later in the season. In the beginning of the season there is almost an equal balance of favorites and underdogs because Vegas has inaccuracies in their line settings.

A good example would be UCF. The lines have been set wrong the entire year. I’m going to do my best to take advantage of lines when possible. I try to stay within system picks which is why you see more action on oddsmaker favorites.

“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson

SM777

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October 27th, 2017 at 2:59:34 PM permalink

Quote: JoelDeze
Sure.

Similar to some systems like ESPNs FPI, the base system component I use is called TSRS (True Statistical Rating of Strength). It handles inflation/deflation values for raw statistics by using standard deviation, among other criteria.

The second part is determining probability of scoring for offensive pieces and scoring mitigation from defensive pieces.

The third part is determining overall risk based on similar predictive analysis using regression models.

The fourth is determining current offensive and defensive momentum trends based on performance when playing strong or weak teams.

There are a couple of other smaller trending components.

Last, ATS ratings and ATS historical lines based on scenario driven data.

My system is going to find more teams on the oddsmaker favorite line later in the season. In the beginning of the season there is almost an equal balance of favorites and underdogs because Vegas has inaccuracies in their line settings.

A good example would be UCF. The lines have been set wrong the entire year. I’m going to do my best to take advantage of lines when possible. I try to stay within system picks which is why you see more action on oddsmaker favorites.

This is comedic gold. Thank you for the laugh.

SM777

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Joined: Apr 8, 2016

October 29th, 2017 at 6:32:01 AM permalink

Joeldeze bludgeoned to a 4-7-1 record (-435$) as the data gets better later in the season.

I'd worry about trying to hit 45% and losing less than you already are, instead of challenging people to accept propositions where you will hit 65%.

AxelWolf

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October 29th, 2017 at 10:42:38 AM permalink

No more chirping chips.

Last edited by: AxelWolf on Oct 29, 2017

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

Wizardofnothing

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October 29th, 2017 at 11:44:48 AM permalink

Record speaks for it self, time to bring begas dave onto the forum

No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either

DRich

DRich

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October 29th, 2017 at 4:50:47 PM permalink

Quote: Wizardofnothing
Record speaks for it self, time to bring begas dave onto the forum

C'mon now, it takes time for his system to hone in. I'm guessing in another 6 weeks he will be ready for this college football season.

At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.

SM777

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Joined: Apr 8, 2016

November 1st, 2017 at 3:36:44 PM permalink

No picks this week? We're getting left out in the cold once the data starts to shine?! What a shame.

I really wanted to see the quest for 65% continue. It was a realistic claim from the beginning, and Joel only needs to hit 100% of his next 5,000,000,000,000,000 this season to get there.

beachbumbabs

beachbumbabs

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November 1st, 2017 at 6:21:27 PM permalink

Quote: SM777
No picks this week? We're getting left out in the cold once the data starts to shine?! What a shame.

I really wanted to see the quest for 65% continue. It was a realistic claim from the beginning, and Joel only needs to hit 100% of his next 5,000,000,000,000,000 this season to get there.

It's only Wednesday.

Your last few posts have been devoid of any content beyond trolling him. Please use caution going forward. Warning.

If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.

JoelDeze

Threads: 49
Posts: 467

Joined: Apr 20, 2016

November 2nd, 2017 at 3:32:27 PM permalink

Hi Guys,

As I live in the NE, we were without power for 2 days and it took another half day to get my ISP back due to the storm. So, I'm a bit late in responding.

I'll tally up last week's and this weeks' upcoming on Sunday.

Here are Week 10 picks. I've added a couple of O/U as well as a mix of Fav/Und:

“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson

DRich

DRich

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Posts: 11720

Joined: Jul 6, 2012

November 2nd, 2017 at 4:18:30 PM permalink

Quote: JoelDeze
Hi Guys,

As I live in the NE, we were without power for 2 days and it took another half day to get my ISP back due to the storm. So, I'm a bit late in responding.

I'll tally up last week's and this weeks' upcoming on Sunday.

Here are Week 10 picks. I've added a couple of O/U as well as a mix of Fav/Und:

I like a lot of your picks this week. In other words, you are probably doomed.

At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.

JoelDeze

Threads: 49
Posts: 467

Joined: Apr 20, 2016

November 2nd, 2017 at 8:17:34 PM permalink

Quote: DRich

I like a lot of your picks this week. In other words, you are probably doomed.

Haha, man I hope not. I’ve had a miserable past two weeks. I’d like to have a good week.

“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson

MidwestAP

MidwestAP

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November 3rd, 2017 at 6:04:04 AM permalink

The Iowa State pick has me a little concerned. They are 2.5 pt dogs and while I feel they are better than West Virginia, this is a classic 'trap' game for the Cyclones. They are coming off a HUGE win against TCU last week, and have another high profile game against Okie St next weekend, and this road game is caught in the middle. It just seems like a time where a let down is possible, especially for a team tasting some success in the first time in years.

JoelDeze

Threads: 49
Posts: 467

Joined: Apr 20, 2016

November 3rd, 2017 at 6:24:29 AM permalink

Quote: MidwestAP
The Iowa State pick has me a little concerned. They are 2.5 pt dogs and while I feel they are better than West Virginia, this is a classic 'trap' game for the Cyclones. They are coming off a HUGE win against TCU last week, and have another high profile game against Okie St next weekend, and this road game is caught in the middle. It just seems like a time where a let down is possible, especially for a team tasting some success in the first time in years.

There are 3 similar teams each other has played: TCU, Kansas and Texas Tech.

Iowa St averaged 30 points per game while allowing 6. They went 3-0 against those teams.

W Va averaged 42 points per game while allowing 33. They went 2-1 against those teams.

Iowa St has a +10 to 0 advantage in turnover margin.

Defensively, Iowa St has been trending positive since Week 2. W Va has been trending down since week 3. Both offenses are good but Iowa St matches up well defensively. W Va does not match up well defensively with Iowa St.

Iowa St allows opponents under 19 points per game. W Va is allowing opponents just under 32 points per game.

I see this game being a 33-30 or 38-28 type of game with Iowa St winning. However, if Iowa St gets the turnovers then W Va may lose in a blowout.

Also, Iowa St is 3-0 SU playing away.

“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson

SOOPOO

SOOPOO

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November 3rd, 2017 at 9:04:31 AM permalink

Quote: JoelDeze
Hi Guys,

As I live in the NE, we were without power for 2 days and it took another half day to get my ISP back due to the storm. So, I'm a bit late in responding.

I'll tally up last week's and this weeks' upcoming on Sunday.

Here are Week 10 picks. I've added a couple of O/U as well as a mix of Fav/Und:

As always, thanks for posting. This week 1/3 of your picks you lay more than 11-10. So you probably need 9-6 to show a small profit. It seems you NEVER take better odds at the expense of points. You never find a money line underdog worth taking?

JoelDeze

Threads: 49
Posts: 467

Joined: Apr 20, 2016

November 3rd, 2017 at 10:52:42 AM permalink

Quote: SOOPOO
Quote: JoelDeze

As always, thanks for posting. This week 1/3 of your picks you lay more than 11-10. So you probably need 9-6 to show a small profit. It seems you NEVER take better odds at the expense of points. You never find a money line underdog worth taking?

No problem and yes, that's a very good question. First, these are system picks. The system pick is based solely on probability of winning the game and not probability of covering a line. I have other algorithms in place to use for cover analysis. This means that if a system pick is +7.5 on the oddsmaker side, the system still believes it will win the game outright. Therefore, yes, I do wager on system underdogs. I usually do a 1u/0.5u on +ATS/+ML for that type of match-up. I may not post them and I may not even recommend them to others, but you asked the question so there's my answer.

I also believe that 2nd half wagers are the best way to make money wagering in College or Pro football. I may write a blog post on the subject.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson

SM777

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Posts: 762

Joined: Apr 8, 2016

November 5th, 2017 at 7:01:47 AM permalink

6-9
-$597.50

I do think it's important to note how far off you are from being successful: You bought points to get Fresno State to -13 -140, the line closed at -10 -110. This Joeldeze being a successful sports bettor is the biggest charade on the internet. BRING ON VEGAS DAVE!!!

Last 3 weeks:
15-27-1
$-1,700
35% (I rounded up).

35% with many of these with points bought and laying more than -110.

AxelWolf

Threads: 164
Posts: 22278

Joined: Oct 10, 2012

November 5th, 2017 at 7:49:48 AM permalink

Quote: SM777
6-9
-$597.50

I do think it's important to note how far off you are from being successful: You bought points to get Fresno State to -13 -140, the line closed at -10 -110. This Joeldeze being a successful sports bettor is the biggest charade on the internet. BRING ON VEGAS DAVE!!!

Last 3 weeks:
15-27-1
$-1,700
35% (I rounded up).

35% with many of these with points bought and laying more than -110.

I knew I could count on you to give me my weekly update on Joel's picks.

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

bazooooka

bazooooka

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November 7th, 2017 at 1:48:39 AM permalink

If one faded all his picks over the last year(s) what profits could a $100 bettor have expected?

Wizardofnothing

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November 7th, 2017 at 3:25:52 AM permalink

Not sure but I’m crushing it with Vegas Dave’s picks

No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either

SM777

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November 7th, 2017 at 6:01:01 AM permalink

Quote: bazooooka
If one faded all his picks over the last year(s) what profits could a $100 bettor have expected?

I was fading his picks early last year when I realized he knew nothing about sports betting and projected Clemson to win by 50 points or something while the spread was less than a touchdown, and it was a one unit play. Moral of the story is I knew I had gold in front of me if I could get into the weekly habit of fading him.

And, for a few weeks I was making a little bit of money blindly fading his picks with small wagers. Then one weekend I kind of just forgot (it would've been another winning week) and I never got back into doing it.

A lot of people fail to understand the value of someone who's consistently on the wrong side of games like Joeldeze, is just as strong as the value of someone who's consistently on the right side of games. If you can find someone consistently giving you losing picks like this thread, you should be betting the other side.

Romes

Romes

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November 7th, 2017 at 8:13:54 AM permalink

To play devils advocate... I'm sure if Joel was crushing it then we'd be hearing all about how it's a small sampling size and he's just getting lucky =).

Playing it correctly means you've already won.

SM777

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November 7th, 2017 at 9:01:17 AM permalink

Quote: Romes
To play devils advocate... I'm sure if Joel was crushing it then we'd be hearing all about how it's a small sampling size and he's just getting lucky =).

When you play 20 games a week (which is a joke in itself that one's "system" have identified the oddsmakers off on 20 games) for a season and a half, that's not a small sample size.

The proof is in the pudding here.

AxelWolf

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November 7th, 2017 at 9:37:07 AM permalink

Quote: Romes
To play devils advocate... I'm sure if Joel was crushing it then we'd be hearing all about how it's a small sampling size and he's just getting lucky =).

Nah, we would just focus on his past shenanigans and claim he has a different handle on a different site where he has different picks.

Assuming he has a bad year, will he...

A.) Tell us he has adjusted his algorithm.
B.) Tell us he made money with other bets and last minute changes.
C.) Tell us NFL is where he makes most of his money.
D.) It was a one-off crazy unpredictable year.
E.) All of the above including multiple other excuses.
F.) Remain silent for the most part in hopes we will all forget.

Bonus questions:
How many of his Voodoo dolls will he use on SM777?
What's a good O/U of how often SM777 will bump this thread?

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

DrawingDead

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November 7th, 2017 at 9:40:48 AM permalink

Quote: Wizardofnothing
Not sure but I’m crushing it with Vegas Dave’s picks

Ah yes. Crushing it. Hilarious. Don't they always. He's pretty well known all right. For ludicrous publicity stunts around nearly every sports event to promote himself and fleecing his pigeons with hoaxes so ridiculously transparent that it routinely leaves most people wondering "what kind of sucker could ever fall for THAT?" You could say "Vegas Dave" (David Oancea) is pretty much the famous poster child for... something.

Google: Vegas + Dave + scammer

But, if you'd really like to keep posting adverts for his scam-tout business here, then go right ahead, because there's an endless supply of sleazy scam accounts to post under each and every one of them until you run out of electrons and you wear your fingers to the bone (or the moderators inevitably get sick of it & say pay up for the continuing scam-ads or shut up). Since this is already about the third little advert I've seen in a thread I don't even follow much, here's the first little one of them (randomly plucked out among thousands) to start the counter-ads:

http://zwnation.com/vertically-challenged-vegas-dave-hits-a-new-low-by-suing-the-competition/

Quote:
<SNIP>

To recap, Atlanta lost the game but VD still claimed a $2 million win due to a tangled web of “futures” and “proposition” bets.

Nothing Dave does has ever been independently verified and he is increasingly finding himself a target of other sports handicappers who are pointing out inconsistencies in his picks. Let’s be honest: in terms of integrity, the sports handicapping world is somewhere between porn and the music biz and yet many still feel VD is sullying the reputation of their industry. Sports betting is and always will be based on “smoke and mirrors” and “bait and switch” and yet Dave’s Trumpian flights of fancy rankle his peers.

<SNIP>

[Bolded highlighting added.]

Expect to see each and every advertisement you post for the VD clown to be quoted with yet another ripoff, scam, or "customer" (fleeced sucker) fraud report attached from now on. Each and every time. The supply truly is endless.

And have a nice day.

Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.

SM777

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Posts: 762

Joined: Apr 8, 2016

November 7th, 2017 at 9:47:05 AM permalink

Quote: AxelWolf
Nah, we would just focus on his past shenanigans and claim he has a different handle on a different site where he has different picks.

Assuming he has a bad year, will he...

A.) Tell us he has adjusted his algorithm.
B.) Tell us he made money with other bets and last minute changes.
C.) Tell us NFL is where he makes most of his money.
D.) It was a one-off crazy unpredictable year.
E.) All of the above including multiple other excuses.
F.) Remain silent for the most part in hopes we will all forget.

Bonus questions:
How many of his Voodoo dolls will he use on SM777?
What's a good O/U of how often SM777 will bump this thread?

E.

4.5 O/U

AxelWolf

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Joined: Oct 10, 2012

November 7th, 2017 at 9:47:38 AM permalink

And to the person who I privately scorned for suggesting we try following JOELDEZE picks, let this be a lesson.

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

SM777

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Posts: 762

Joined: Apr 8, 2016

November 11th, 2017 at 6:39:09 AM permalink

Is this the end.....?

bazooooka

bazooooka

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November 12th, 2017 at 12:19:33 AM permalink

It's indeed hard to find systems that win only 40% or so. But when I find the kind of guys I typically fade them over 100 bets. More often than not it has worked out well. It seems its easier to create a system that loses over wins. Coin flips have you at 50/50 but systems often used flawed logic and I expect Vegas takes advantage of that. Thus some people seem to always LOSE in the long run even if you gave them vig free betting.

Wizardofnothing

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November 12th, 2017 at 2:48:52 AM permalink

Long live Vegas Dave
He is a legend

No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either

Rigondeaux

Rigondeaux

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November 12th, 2017 at 4:04:18 AM permalink

Quote: bazooooka
It's indeed hard to find systems that win only 40% or so. But when I find the kind of guys I typically fade them over 100 bets. More often than not it has worked out well. It seems its easier to create a system that loses over wins. Coin flips have you at 50/50 but systems often used flawed logic and I expect Vegas takes advantage of that. Thus some people seem to always LOSE in the long run even if you gave them vig free betting.

I'm skeptical of any of this. I have seen some touts rack up staggeringly bad records, (Teddy Covers) but I think they are just getting unlucky on their coin flips.

The idea of someone using good logic backwards, or subconsciously making bad picks just seems to far fetched for me to believe in fading anyone.

Joel's sample size for this season is too small to mean much of anything either way. But, especially as a smaller bettor, the best thing to do is just hunt for off numbers and do parlay cards and similar stuff. Handicapping the biggest markets is very hard and time consuming.

If you must, you can handicap smaller markets, which is still hard, but not as hard and just as time consuming.

DrawingDead