lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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January 31st, 2017 at 4:31:30 AM permalink
They're 22-0 and #1 in the AP and ESPN poll. Amazing. They've never been to Final 4. Many doubters. I'm one of them.


https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/30/sports/ncaabasketball/gonzaga-bulldogs-number-1-unbeaten-associated-press-poll.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fsports&action=click&contentCollection=sports&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=sectionfront
everybody wants to go to heaven. but nobody wants to die.
charlestfuller
charlestfuller
Joined: Nov 18, 2016
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Thanks for this post from:
beachbumbabs
January 31st, 2017 at 5:30:57 AM permalink
I would have a tough time putting anybody else up there without dispute. Their schedule is obviously weaker, but they have beaten some ranked teams. You are right that no one really expects them to make a Final 4, but I would think they might break through one of these years. They have had solid players come through there over some years.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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February 19th, 2017 at 2:18:46 AM permalink
they're 26-0 now. pretty amazing. i'm pulling for them. it's very exciting if they can actually do it.
everybody wants to go to heaven. but nobody wants to die.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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February 19th, 2017 at 4:52:48 AM permalink
Quote: charlestfuller

You are right that no one really expects them to make a Final 4



There is no team this year that anyone should 'expect' to make the final four. No team will be a greater than 50% chance to win their 16 team bracket. Gonzaga might be the highest at 30% or so. They as the overall number one seed in the country will have to play no team higher than the overall number 8 seed, who will be the 'worst' of the 4 number 2 seeds.
charlestfuller
charlestfuller
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February 19th, 2017 at 6:41:30 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

There is no team this year that anyone should 'expect' to make the final four. No team will be a greater than 50% chance to win their 16 team bracket. Gonzaga might be the highest at 30% or so. They as the overall number one seed in the country will have to play no team higher than the overall number 8 seed, who will be the 'worst' of the 4 number 2 seeds.



Well as you can see when they did the "first early reveal ever" of the top 16 tournament seeds if March Madness started today, Gonzaga was given the #4 overall seed despite being ranked number one in AP and the only undefeated team. But if I was placing money on which team is the least likely to make the final 4 between Villanova, Baylor, Kansas, and Gonzaga, it would be Gonzaga. Despite all the great seasons they have had in the past 5-10 years, they have never made a Final 4....
SM777
SM777
Joined: Apr 8, 2016
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February 19th, 2017 at 1:53:19 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

There is no team this year that anyone should 'expect' to make the final four. No team will be a greater than 50% chance to win their 16 team bracket. Gonzaga might be the highest at 30% or so. They as the overall number one seed in the country will have to play no team higher than the overall number 8 seed, who will be the 'worst' of the 4 number 2 seeds.




That's not how it works. The worst rated two seed is not necessarily placed with the #1 overall seed.

As you can see from the early reveal, that is quite clear. Villanova was rated the #1 overall seed, and placed with the third rated number 2 seed, Louisville.

Oh, and there will be at least one #1 seed that is less than +230 (your equated 30% chance) to win their region.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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March 15th, 2017 at 4:03:53 AM permalink
If Gonzaga gets to the sweet 16 I'm going to start betting against them. As long as they're overbet as I expect them to be because they tug on your heartstrings. I can't believe they're for real. I just looked at their complete schedule. It looked weak. It would be thrilling to see them do it but I don't think so. I think it's basically impossible to say that they are one of the top teams out there when they haven't played or beaten any top teams.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Mar 15, 2017
everybody wants to go to heaven. but nobody wants to die.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 15th, 2017 at 5:09:52 AM permalink
Quote: SM777

That's not how it works. The worst rated two seed is not necessarily placed with the #1 overall seed.

As you can see from the early reveal, that is quite clear. Villanova was rated the #1 overall seed, and placed with the third rated number 2 seed, Louisville.

Oh, and there will be at least one #1 seed that is less than +230 (your equated 30% chance) to win their region.



They 'try' and place overall seed 5 with overall seed 4, but it is not guaranteed.
My saying Gonzaga as number 1 overall was before they lost a game. They dropped to 4 with that loss.
Which #1 seed is better than 30% chance to make final 4? None to me.....
SM777
SM777
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March 15th, 2017 at 7:13:40 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

They 'try' and place overall seed 5 with overall seed 4, but it is not guaranteed.
My saying Gonzaga as number 1 overall was before they lost a game. They dropped to 4 with that loss.
Which #1 seed is better than 30% chance to make final 4? None to me.....



I'm aware of how it works. It appears that you weren't.

Literally every region has a team at 30% or higher to make the Final Four. UNC +120, Kansas +215, Gonzaga +160, and Villanova +190. +233 equates a win percentage of 30%. So, any team with a line lower than +230 means their "chance" of making the Final Four is greater than 30%.

UNC at +120 equates to a 45% to win their region AKA make the Final Four.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 15th, 2017 at 7:37:46 AM permalink
Quote: SM777

I'm aware of how it works. It appears that you weren't.

Literally every region has a team at 30% or higher to make the Final Four. UNC +120, Kansas +215, Gonzaga +160, and Villanova +190. +233 equates a win percentage of 30%. So, any team with a line lower than +230 means their "chance" of making the Final Four is greater than 30%.

UNC at +120 equates to a 45% to win their region AKA make the Final Four.



I was quite aware of 'how it works'. I am just surprised at the odds you quote. I would take all non UNC teams in their region laying 12-10 in a heartbeat. And Gonzaga only +160?
You of course know that with the spread built in Kansas plus 215 really equates to a less than 30% chance to win? The lines are not meant to be fair, they have a built in vig. Kind of like when an MMA favorite is -120 and the underdog is -105.

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