Romes
Romes
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January 26th, 2017 at 8:18:22 AM permalink
While I never do 'too' much NFL sports betting (usually stick to MMA and do well enough there) I definitely want to thank you Mike for your data mining and analysis on the different bets for the Super Bowls. You've been a big help and given a ton of people exactly what they wanted in years past (hey, bet that).

All of your reasons for not wanting to post/publish anything this year make sense to me. Though, I could not help but notice a comparison...

Many players (not me) were upset because you released machine data on the tax day rebate downtown. They thought this directly affected their bottom line and income as players. It seemed in that thread that you felt you were doing your regular service to the community in releasing the information on the machines. Now that NFL betting has dried up a little due potentially to the same freedom of information, is there any part of you that doesn't want to do the bets because you don't want to be a victim of your own success?

Again, I've never held anything but the highest respect for you and your work Mike, just curious if you see the comparison here and if you have any reflections/thoughts on the comparison.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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January 26th, 2017 at 9:07:30 AM permalink
Quote: RonC

Here is part of the alphabet that would include Nationwide:

- M -

Mars
The candy brand returns with a Snickers Super Bowl 2017 ad and a Skittles Super Bowl 2017 ad.

Mercedes-Benz
German luxury carmaker Mercedes-Benz is coming back to the Big Game. The Mercedes Super Bowl 2017 Ad was confirmed at the NAIAS 2017.

Michelob Ultra

Mr. Clean
Procter & Gamble spent the reported $5 million on a Mr. Clean Super Bowl 2017 Ad.

- N -

- O -

- P -


http://www.i4u.com/2016/12/118621/super-bowl-2017-advertisers

This was supposedly done when ti was 90% sold...



Peyton Manning also does Papa John's Pizza ads, but I note that it is not on your list either.

There are also local ads sold by each station. I wonder how that figures in the end?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Romes
Romes
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January 26th, 2017 at 9:54:31 AM permalink
I just put some small bets on the game... Anyone else have any opinions on this:

1) Will the first Coaches Challenge overturn (-115) or will the play stand (-115)?

I don't get why these are the same number... Given coaches have a history and percentage attached to their challenges, and the fact that at the Super Bowl I'm sure each team will have a "team" up in the booth reviewing plays and asking for challenges, etc... I would think "overturn" would be a favorite?

2) Will a 2 point conversion be Successful (+130) or Not Successful (-200).

Also, right above this bet was "Will there be a 2 point conversion attempted" at -150... So "if" that's a fair line then for an extra -50 you can protect your bet with a second level of protection? Not only would one have to be attempted, but then successful to lose that bet?

*Disclaimer: I don't do very much NFL betting and don't have any kind of data like the Wizard always did... Just general conversation/discussion.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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January 26th, 2017 at 11:36:26 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

I just put some small bets on the game... Anyone else have any opinions on this:

1) Will the first Coaches Challenge overturn (-115) or will the play stand (-115)?

I don't get why these are the same number... Given coaches have a history and percentage attached to their challenges, and the fact that at the Super Bowl I'm sure each team will have a "team" up in the booth reviewing plays and asking for challenges, etc... I would think "overturn" would be a favorite?



I think "overturn" too. There's got to be some stats on the coaches challenges in the playoffs. Also, I would think the fact that there are more cameras recording the action during the playoffs, and that the game will be indoors so the pictures will be clearer makes the outcome more likely. I don't know why there's no vig though.


Quote: Romes

2) Will a 2 point conversion be Successful (+130) or Not Successful (-200)



Does this mean if no 2-pt conversion is attempted, the bet is a push?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 26th, 2017 at 11:50:31 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

Many players (not me) were upset because you released machine data on the tax day rebate downtown. They thought this directly affected their bottom line and income as players. It seemed in that thread that you felt you were doing your regular service to the community in releasing the information on the machines. Now that NFL betting has dried up a little due potentially to the same freedom of information, is there any part of you that doesn't want to do the bets because you don't want to be a victim of your own success?



Thanks Romes for the kind words. Ultimately, my philosophy is the world would be a better place if there were open access to information. I understand that when somebody writes about an advantage play it benefits those who didn't know and may hurt those who already did. In some cases there is only so much pie to go around and revealing information doesn't have a net total gain to players. However, sometimes there is plenty of pie and revealing information allows more people to enjoy the pie.

In the case of the Plaza promotion, there were plenty of machines available and the Plaza never stopped it early or kicked people out (correct me if I'm wrong). So that somebody else, I think DarkOz, wrote about it only caused more people to benefit and didn't hurt those who already knew about it.

About being the victim of my own success -- I would be proud of that. It means I have helped players win, or lose less, which has been my mission for 20 years.
Last edited by: Wizard on Jan 26, 2017
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Romes
Romes
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January 26th, 2017 at 11:59:11 AM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

...Does this mean if no 2-pt conversion is attempted, the bet is a push?

I took it as if there isn't a successful one you win. So if there isn't one, you win... I'd have to double check but that's the way it seemed to me.

Quote: Wizard

...About being the victim of my own success -- I would proud of that. It means I have helped players win, or lose less, which has been my mission for 20 years.

I would have to say already, mission success. I was just curious on your outlook now, and if that's changed at all because of this. Let's pretend you are a victim of your own success with NFL betting. Let's say you personally move on and find some great bets in other sports. Would you be more hesitant now to share that information knowing that it will lead to the opportunity ultimately drying up, like the NFL? Or do you still keep the same philosophy of the free information?

Fun question: What is the monetary amount to you in which you would no longer share the information of a play/promotion/bet/etc/etc? As in, if you didn't share you personally would make $1,000,000... but if you share you personally would only make $500,000.... or again if you shared you wouldn't make anything (so costing you $1,000,000). At what amount of value to you would you deem it not worth sharing, or at what amount after you've won would you then share the information?
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
djatc
djatc
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January 26th, 2017 at 3:10:37 PM permalink
No safety -900

That's all you need to know.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 26th, 2017 at 9:27:37 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

I would have to say already, mission success. I was just curious on your outlook now, and if that's changed at all because of this. Let's pretend you are a victim of your own success with NFL betting. Let's say you personally move on and find some great bets in other sports. Would you be more hesitant now to share that information knowing that it will lead to the opportunity ultimately drying up, like the NFL? Or do you still keep the same philosophy of the free information?



I would have to cross that bridge when I get to it. I'm not a total saint. I was doing NFL props for a while, and doing well, before I started sharing my picks.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 28th, 2017 at 9:03:45 AM permalink
I just posted some prop sheets at this new page:

Super Bowl 51 -- Proposition Bets

I plan to go downtown this afternoon so plan to add the Golden Nugget, William Hill, and Stations this evening.

Note these lines at the South Point casinos:

No safety: -700
No overtime: -750
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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January 28th, 2017 at 9:24:31 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

...

Note these lines at the South Point casinos:

No safety: -700
No overtime: -750



They're practically giving the No Safety away. The two teams have smart QB's and just okay Defenses. I would not fault you for indulging.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci

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