Wizard
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January 23rd, 2017 at 11:54:54 AM permalink
I know there is already a thread for Super Bowl LI but I think a thread devoted to prop betting would be of a benefit to the forum. Let's keep discussion about betting against the spread, money line, and over/under in the Super Bowl LI thread. This one can be for everything else, including the infamous "no safety" bet.

That said, Bob Dancer invited me to be a guest on the show to discuss my picks this year. This year, I declined. He put together a statement about why, which was accurate, but I preferred to write my own. That said, here it is. I'm posting it here because as long as I wrote a statement for Bob and Richard's show, I may as well post it here too, as I know I'll get asked eventually for my picks.

Quote: Wizard


After much thought and money lost, I have decided to retire from proposition bet making in the NFL. The primary reason for this is the game is played differently than it was in the early 2000's. The data on which my bets were made go back to 2000, when the rules were different. In an effort to make the game safer, the NFL has put a ball and chain on defenses, resulting in higher scoring games.

As evidence, between 2000 and 2005, the average total points scored per game was 41.92. In the regular season of 2016 it was 45.54. That may not sound like huge difference, but advantages have been slim lately, so an increase in points scored of 8.6% in points scored makes a difference in perceived advantages. Virtually all the props I like favored boring, uneventful, and low-scoring games. This should not come as a surprise, as the square bettors prefer prop bets that favor exactly the opposite.

Another change in the game is kickers are now much better than they were just ten years ago. In the 2000 season there were an average of 2.92 field goals per game. In the 2016 regular season there were 3.34. I figure this is partially due to the higher scoring nature of the game and also the kickers can simply kick further. In the entire 2000 season there were 37 field goals made of 50 yards or more, or 0.0714 per game. In the 2016 regular season there were 85, or 0.166 per game. I think it is very dangerous to use data from a period with few field goals to bet on a game played today.

Yet another factor is I think there is a lot more competition from other sharp prop bettors. No longer are the advantages over 20%, which were commonplace ten years ago. I don't know where all these competitors came from but I suspect I'm partially responsible for drawing attention to betting NFL prop bets. In other words, I'm a victim of my own success.

Finally, the Super Bowls of 2014 and 2016 were abject disasters for me. While, 2015 went well, I know the trend since I started doing this around 2005 would be a negative one. Four safeties in the last eight Super Bowls have not helped.

In conclusion, I am not saying that I will absolutely never make another prop bet. In fact, I made some on the AFC and NFC championship games, which went badly. I may make some small wagers that I have made every Super Bowl, just because old habits are hard to die, but I won't be betting thousands of dollars on each one like I used to do. More like in the low hundreds. Nor will I be promoting specific bets here or on the radio. Sorry, but for Super Bowl 2017, you're on your own.

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
billryan
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January 23rd, 2017 at 12:36:46 PM permalink
I generally make two SB bets, unless The NY football Giants are involved.
1) There will be a safety. I won one year on the very last play of the game( Baltimore) and the next year on the very first play( Seattle).
2) Overtime. I haven't collected yet. Came damn close the one year as it was tied with under a minute to play.
However, every year I lose, I toss $5 more in the next year. When it eventually hits, I'll collect all my losses.

Enjoy.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
Ayecarumba
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January 23rd, 2017 at 12:41:15 PM permalink
Thanks for the courtesy Wizard. I appreciate how much you have helped us here, and am a little sad that your bountiful garden has been trampled on as a result.

However, I look forward to hearing about the successful evolution of your database, and receiving any timely crumbs off of your table.
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RS
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January 23rd, 2017 at 2:33:37 PM permalink
Thanks for helping us with the prop bets in year(s) past.

How far does your data go, or is it up until now (ie: does it include 2010-2016)?
Wizard
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January 23rd, 2017 at 2:50:42 PM permalink
Quote: RS

Thanks for helping us with the prop bets in year(s) past.

How far does your data go, or is it up until now (ie: does it include 2010-2016)?



You're welcome. The data covers every game from the 2000 to 2014 seasons. I never bothered to update it for the 2015 or 2016 seasons, as it is rather time consuming to end enter every single score. Plus, there was a defensive two-point conversion on 12/6/15, between the Saints and Panthers, that my program is not set up to handle. I would probably have to just ignore that game to make things work, which I hate to do. Somehow, I'm more comfortable removing a whole season from the data than a single game.
Last edited by: Wizard on Jan 23, 2017
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
beachbumbabs
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January 23rd, 2017 at 3:51:33 PM permalink
Mike,

Thanks for all the education and entertainment the last few years. Sorry to hear it's no longer lucrative.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
MrV
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January 23rd, 2017 at 4:27:21 PM permalink
I don't bet sports, but for those who absolutely, positively are too lazy to do the work for themselves, I have two words: "John Patrick."

Not that you should; but you could.
"What, me worry?"
IndyJeffrey
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January 23rd, 2017 at 5:00:36 PM permalink
Is there an on-line list(s) of prop bets presently offered? I saw a list on bovada, but how about Vegas casinos?
djatc
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January 23rd, 2017 at 5:25:27 PM permalink
Thanks Mike for the fun times. I love Super bowl betting, so many prop bets going on in one game.
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Boz
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January 23rd, 2017 at 6:58:57 PM permalink
Not to be the negative guy here, but do you see any opportunities out there?

Meanwhile I'm betting no Safety, not only in the spirit of the Wiz but because I still think it is a good bet regardless of a few bad years. In fact I think the past failures only make it a better bet.

I do hope you look at the data out and come back with picks in the future. You may think, rightly, the game has changed, but I still believe there are good bets out there. I just may not be the guy to find them but you are.
Ayecarumba
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January 25th, 2017 at 3:11:09 PM permalink
A list of props has been published here

Some hightlights:

Odds on Bill Belichick's hoodie color in the Super Bowl:
Blue: 3/4
Grey: 5/3
Red: 9/1
No hoodie: 9/1

Lady Gaga's hair color during halftime show
Blonde/Yellow -170
Brown +200
Green +1000
Pink +1500
White +1500
Blue +1500
Purple +2000
Orange +2000

How many commercials will Peyton Manning appear in during the Super Bowl broadcast?
Over 1.5 (+120)
Under 1.5 (-150
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monet0412
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January 25th, 2017 at 4:31:48 PM permalink
Quote: Boz

Meanwhile I'm betting no Safety, not only in the spirit of the Wiz but because I still think it is a good bet regardless of a few bad years. In fact I think the past failures only make it a better bet.



Let me get this straight. Past history gives us a better chance in the Super Bowl? Why doesn't this work on roulette or in craps? This advice sounds like my buddy playing Video Poker telling me that he can't leave now cause the machine is heating up!
Boz
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January 25th, 2017 at 5:26:13 PM permalink
Quote: monet0412

Quote: Boz

Meanwhile I'm betting no Safety, not only in the spirit of the Wiz but because I still think it is a good bet regardless of a few bad years. In fact I think the past failures only make it a better bet.



Let me get this straight. Past history gives us a better chance in the Super Bowl? Why doesn't this work on roulette or in craps? This advice sounds like my buddy playing Video Poker telling me that he can't leave now cause the machine is heating up!



I talking about adjustments in the line, not the chances of it happening or not happening. I see it as a better value than in the past. I could be wrong and should have worded it better.
SOOPOO
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January 25th, 2017 at 5:31:15 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba



How many commercials will Peyton Manning appear in during the Super Bowl broadcast?
Over 1.5 (+120)
Under 1.5 (-150



I cannot believe you can get a bet down on this. I am sure there are dozens if not hundreds of TV/advertising agency employees that know the answer to this already.
Ayecarumba
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January 25th, 2017 at 5:53:12 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I cannot believe you can get a bet down on this. I am sure there are dozens if not hundreds of TV/advertising agency employees that know the answer to this already.



Same with Lady Gaga's haircolor. The stylist, or even Lady G herself could cash in. I suspect the limits on these have to be pretty low, and the book could always suspend payment pending an "inquiry".
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beachbumbabs
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January 25th, 2017 at 6:22:43 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Same with Lady Gaga's haircolor. The stylist, or even Lady G herself could cash in. I suspect the limits on these have to be pretty low, and the book could always suspend payment pending an "inquiry".



Imo, white is worth more than +1500. Best way for her to stand out from far away, and she's done it before.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
ahiromu
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January 25th, 2017 at 6:30:57 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Same with Lady Gaga's haircolor. The stylist, or even Lady G herself could cash in. I suspect the limits on these have to be pretty low, and the book could always suspend payment pending an "inquiry".



Last year or the year before casinos (Vegas strip) stopped taking bets on the national anthem over-under a couple of hours before the game. I always suspected it was because someone heard the practice performance and leaked that it was short/long.
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billryan
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January 26th, 2017 at 12:39:35 AM permalink
The singer can bet on themselves.
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DJTeddyBear
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January 26th, 2017 at 7:13:05 AM permalink
So does anybody have a prob bets sheet they can post?

Turns out I have a coworker going to Vegas next week...
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RonC
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January 26th, 2017 at 7:49:25 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I cannot believe you can get a bet down on this. I am sure there are dozens if not hundreds of TV/advertising agency employees that know the answer to this already.



Here is part of the alphabet that would include Nationwide:

- M -

Mars
The candy brand returns with a Snickers Super Bowl 2017 ad and a Skittles Super Bowl 2017 ad.

Mercedes-Benz
German luxury carmaker Mercedes-Benz is coming back to the Big Game. The Mercedes Super Bowl 2017 Ad was confirmed at the NAIAS 2017.

Michelob Ultra

Mr. Clean
Procter & Gamble spent the reported $5 million on a Mr. Clean Super Bowl 2017 Ad.

- N -

- O -

- P -


http://www.i4u.com/2016/12/118621/super-bowl-2017-advertisers

This was supposedly done when ti was 90% sold...
Romes
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January 26th, 2017 at 8:18:22 AM permalink
While I never do 'too' much NFL sports betting (usually stick to MMA and do well enough there) I definitely want to thank you Mike for your data mining and analysis on the different bets for the Super Bowls. You've been a big help and given a ton of people exactly what they wanted in years past (hey, bet that).

All of your reasons for not wanting to post/publish anything this year make sense to me. Though, I could not help but notice a comparison...

Many players (not me) were upset because you released machine data on the tax day rebate downtown. They thought this directly affected their bottom line and income as players. It seemed in that thread that you felt you were doing your regular service to the community in releasing the information on the machines. Now that NFL betting has dried up a little due potentially to the same freedom of information, is there any part of you that doesn't want to do the bets because you don't want to be a victim of your own success?

Again, I've never held anything but the highest respect for you and your work Mike, just curious if you see the comparison here and if you have any reflections/thoughts on the comparison.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Ayecarumba
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January 26th, 2017 at 9:07:30 AM permalink
Quote: RonC

Here is part of the alphabet that would include Nationwide:

- M -

Mars
The candy brand returns with a Snickers Super Bowl 2017 ad and a Skittles Super Bowl 2017 ad.

Mercedes-Benz
German luxury carmaker Mercedes-Benz is coming back to the Big Game. The Mercedes Super Bowl 2017 Ad was confirmed at the NAIAS 2017.

Michelob Ultra

Mr. Clean
Procter & Gamble spent the reported $5 million on a Mr. Clean Super Bowl 2017 Ad.

- N -

- O -

- P -


http://www.i4u.com/2016/12/118621/super-bowl-2017-advertisers

This was supposedly done when ti was 90% sold...



Peyton Manning also does Papa John's Pizza ads, but I note that it is not on your list either.

There are also local ads sold by each station. I wonder how that figures in the end?
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Romes
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January 26th, 2017 at 9:54:31 AM permalink
I just put some small bets on the game... Anyone else have any opinions on this:

1) Will the first Coaches Challenge overturn (-115) or will the play stand (-115)?

I don't get why these are the same number... Given coaches have a history and percentage attached to their challenges, and the fact that at the Super Bowl I'm sure each team will have a "team" up in the booth reviewing plays and asking for challenges, etc... I would think "overturn" would be a favorite?

2) Will a 2 point conversion be Successful (+130) or Not Successful (-200).

Also, right above this bet was "Will there be a 2 point conversion attempted" at -150... So "if" that's a fair line then for an extra -50 you can protect your bet with a second level of protection? Not only would one have to be attempted, but then successful to lose that bet?

*Disclaimer: I don't do very much NFL betting and don't have any kind of data like the Wizard always did... Just general conversation/discussion.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Ayecarumba
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January 26th, 2017 at 11:36:26 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

I just put some small bets on the game... Anyone else have any opinions on this:

1) Will the first Coaches Challenge overturn (-115) or will the play stand (-115)?

I don't get why these are the same number... Given coaches have a history and percentage attached to their challenges, and the fact that at the Super Bowl I'm sure each team will have a "team" up in the booth reviewing plays and asking for challenges, etc... I would think "overturn" would be a favorite?



I think "overturn" too. There's got to be some stats on the coaches challenges in the playoffs. Also, I would think the fact that there are more cameras recording the action during the playoffs, and that the game will be indoors so the pictures will be clearer makes the outcome more likely. I don't know why there's no vig though.


Quote: Romes

2) Will a 2 point conversion be Successful (+130) or Not Successful (-200)



Does this mean if no 2-pt conversion is attempted, the bet is a push?
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Wizard
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January 26th, 2017 at 11:50:31 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

Many players (not me) were upset because you released machine data on the tax day rebate downtown. They thought this directly affected their bottom line and income as players. It seemed in that thread that you felt you were doing your regular service to the community in releasing the information on the machines. Now that NFL betting has dried up a little due potentially to the same freedom of information, is there any part of you that doesn't want to do the bets because you don't want to be a victim of your own success?



Thanks Romes for the kind words. Ultimately, my philosophy is the world would be a better place if there were open access to information. I understand that when somebody writes about an advantage play it benefits those who didn't know and may hurt those who already did. In some cases there is only so much pie to go around and revealing information doesn't have a net total gain to players. However, sometimes there is plenty of pie and revealing information allows more people to enjoy the pie.

In the case of the Plaza promotion, there were plenty of machines available and the Plaza never stopped it early or kicked people out (correct me if I'm wrong). So that somebody else, I think DarkOz, wrote about it only caused more people to benefit and didn't hurt those who already knew about it.

About being the victim of my own success -- I would be proud of that. It means I have helped players win, or lose less, which has been my mission for 20 years.
Last edited by: Wizard on Jan 26, 2017
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Romes
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January 26th, 2017 at 11:59:11 AM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

...Does this mean if no 2-pt conversion is attempted, the bet is a push?

I took it as if there isn't a successful one you win. So if there isn't one, you win... I'd have to double check but that's the way it seemed to me.

Quote: Wizard

...About being the victim of my own success -- I would proud of that. It means I have helped players win, or lose less, which has been my mission for 20 years.

I would have to say already, mission success. I was just curious on your outlook now, and if that's changed at all because of this. Let's pretend you are a victim of your own success with NFL betting. Let's say you personally move on and find some great bets in other sports. Would you be more hesitant now to share that information knowing that it will lead to the opportunity ultimately drying up, like the NFL? Or do you still keep the same philosophy of the free information?

Fun question: What is the monetary amount to you in which you would no longer share the information of a play/promotion/bet/etc/etc? As in, if you didn't share you personally would make $1,000,000... but if you share you personally would only make $500,000.... or again if you shared you wouldn't make anything (so costing you $1,000,000). At what amount of value to you would you deem it not worth sharing, or at what amount after you've won would you then share the information?
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
djatc
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January 26th, 2017 at 3:10:37 PM permalink
No safety -900

That's all you need to know.
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Wizard
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January 26th, 2017 at 9:27:37 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

I would have to say already, mission success. I was just curious on your outlook now, and if that's changed at all because of this. Let's pretend you are a victim of your own success with NFL betting. Let's say you personally move on and find some great bets in other sports. Would you be more hesitant now to share that information knowing that it will lead to the opportunity ultimately drying up, like the NFL? Or do you still keep the same philosophy of the free information?



I would have to cross that bridge when I get to it. I'm not a total saint. I was doing NFL props for a while, and doing well, before I started sharing my picks.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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January 28th, 2017 at 9:03:45 AM permalink
I just posted some prop sheets at this new page:

Super Bowl 51 -- Proposition Bets

I plan to go downtown this afternoon so plan to add the Golden Nugget, William Hill, and Stations this evening.

Note these lines at the South Point casinos:

No safety: -700
No overtime: -750
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Ayecarumba
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January 28th, 2017 at 9:24:31 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

...

Note these lines at the South Point casinos:

No safety: -700
No overtime: -750



They're practically giving the No Safety away. The two teams have smart QB's and just okay Defenses. I would not fault you for indulging.
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megapixels
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January 28th, 2017 at 9:31:23 AM permalink
I'm a total practice squad rookie on injured reserve when it comes to sports betting, can you parlay multiple prop bets into one bet? I will be in Vegas that weekend so I figure I might as well throw a little money down for fun. Any other pages/guides on WOO you might recommend?
djatc
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January 28th, 2017 at 10:02:00 AM permalink
South Point was my first "real" prop sheet, and it's a lot of pages.

All the other casinos I went to (MGM, Stations, WH) all only had the basic props.
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Wizard
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January 28th, 2017 at 10:33:47 AM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

They're practically giving the No Safety away. The two teams have smart QB's and just okay Defenses. I would not fault you for indulging.



I'm pretty sure one of the four safeties in the last eight years had Tom Brady at fault. Either he got sacked in the end zone or intentionally threw a pass to nobody from his own end zone.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Ayecarumba
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January 28th, 2017 at 10:59:45 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I'm pretty sure one of the four safeties in the last eight years had Tom Brady at fault. Either he got sacked in the end zone or intentionally threw a pass to nobody from his own end zone.



Yeah, it was five years ago against the Giants. He got pinched for intentional grounding in the end zone. However, the Giants had an elite defense that year. I don't think the Falcons will generate the same kind of mistake.
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Johnzimbo
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January 28th, 2017 at 12:29:56 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I just posted some prop sheets at this new page:

Super Bowl 51 -- Proposition Bets

I plan to go downtown this afternoon so plan to add the Golden Nugget, William Hill, and Stations this evening.

Note these lines at the South Point casinos:

No safety: -700
No overtime: -750



You have Rampart posted as South Point
Wizard
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January 28th, 2017 at 6:12:52 PM permalink
Quote: Johnzimbo

You have Rampart posted as South Point



They have the same lines. Most people call them the South Point lines, because the South Point sets them and approves large bets.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Johnzimbo
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January 28th, 2017 at 6:20:06 PM permalink
Cool, will you be reposting the Rampart sheet once they add more lines?
ahiromu
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January 28th, 2017 at 7:17:08 PM permalink
Quote: megapixels

I'm a total practice squad rookie on injured reserve when it comes to sports betting, can you parlay multiple prop bets into one bet? I will be in Vegas that weekend so I figure I might as well throw a little money down for fun. Any other pages/guides on WOO you might recommend?



Most (all?) prop bets cannot be parlayed with each other.
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Wizard
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January 28th, 2017 at 7:42:18 PM permalink
Quote: ahiromu

Most (all?) prop bets cannot be parlayed with each other.



Pretty much all. Sometimes books will put out parlay cards where you can pick whatever you want, but they usually take out a lot of juice and strive to make everything uncorrelated.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
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January 28th, 2017 at 7:43:02 PM permalink
Just put up a bunch more prop sheets here. Sorry for the blood on some of the pages. I got a paper cut taking the pictures.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
djatc
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January 28th, 2017 at 11:02:08 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Just put up a bunch more prop sheets here. Sorry for the blood on some of the pages. I got a paper cut taking the pictures.



"taking the pictures"

is that code for the mob flexing their muscles on you to not make bets this year?
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IndyJeffrey
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January 29th, 2017 at 5:26:36 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Sorry for the blood on some of the pages. I got a paper cut taking the pictures.



No one can claim the Wizard is not committed to us players.
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January 29th, 2017 at 8:24:26 AM permalink
Quote: djatc

is that code for the mob flexing their muscles on you to not make bets this year?



Ha! No. If they have any beef with me it would be over me stealing the moniker of Donald Angelini.

Leave it to me to get a paper cut flipping pages. This page got the worst of it, which wasn't bad.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
100xOdds
100xOdds
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January 29th, 2017 at 8:41:09 AM permalink
"Four safeties in the last eight Super Bowls have not helped. "
$1000 bet per superbowl to win $100.

-$4000 and won $400.
net -$3600?

and how do you explain so many safeties in the superbowl lately?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
100xOdds
100xOdds
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January 29th, 2017 at 8:43:32 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Leave it to me to get a paper cut flipping pages. This page got the worst of it, which wasn't bad.


9999 to 1 to score only 1 point?!
is that even possible?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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January 29th, 2017 at 9:19:12 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: Wizard

Leave it to me to get a paper cut flipping pages. This page got the worst of it, which wasn't bad.


9999 to 1 to score only 1 point?!
is that even possible?


Yes. A safety in the course of an extra point kick attempt is now worth 1 point instead of the ball being dead as soon as the defense touched it. This rule was changed when the extra point attempt got moved further back a few seasons ago.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
DRich
DRich
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January 29th, 2017 at 9:22:25 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: Wizard

Leave it to me to get a paper cut flipping pages. This page got the worst of it, which wasn't bad.


9999 to 1 to score only 1 point?!
is that even possible?



Yes, it is possible now with the changes on an extra point attempt. The defense could score a 1-point safety.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
RS
RS
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January 29th, 2017 at 11:49:34 AM permalink
I'd like to parlay the exact points scored, Falcons 4 against Patriots 1 for $1. It only pays $99,990,000.


EDIT: Nevermind that's not possible.

EDIT 2: I'll just parlay Falcons 4 against Patriots 2 for $1 to pay $50,000,000. If anyone is interested in such a wager, I'd like the money from both parties to be put up in escrow with someone I trust.
TomG
TomG
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January 29th, 2017 at 12:23:09 PM permalink
Put under 60 or under 59.5 in lots of parlay bets this week.

Already feels like I have more riding on that than I would like, but also probably going to keep doing it if that number is still around next week. Would like to buy off some at 58.5 next weekend, but might not be there. Could be a big high or low on game day.

There is good value on some of the quarter sides and total in Las Vegas. The Las Vegas sports books will move those numbers on action trying. But we can figure out what a fair line should be based on the game line. Best I've seen so far is 2q under 14.5 +120. Also: Falcons 2q +0.5 -120; 1h under 28.5 ev; Patriots under 31.5 -105

Player props will be the same way next week
RS
RS
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January 29th, 2017 at 12:28:52 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

All of your reasons for not wanting to post/publish anything this year make sense to me. Though, I could not help but notice a comparison...

Many players (not me) were upset because you released machine data on the tax day rebate downtown. They thought this directly affected their bottom line and income as players. It seemed in that thread that you felt you were doing your regular service to the community in releasing the information on the machines. Now that NFL betting has dried up a little due potentially to the same freedom of information, is there any part of you that doesn't want to do the bets because you don't want to be a victim of your own success?

Again, I've never held anything but the highest respect for you and your work Mike, just curious if you see the comparison here and if you have any reflections/thoughts on the comparison.



Quote: Wizard

Thanks Romes for the kind words. Ultimately, my philosophy is the world would be a better place if there were open access to information. I understand that when somebody writes about an advantage play it benefits those who didn't know and may hurt those who already did. In some cases there is only so much pie to go around and revealing information doesn't have a net total gain to players. However, sometimes there is plenty of pie and revealing information allows more people to enjoy the pie.

In the case of the Plaza promotion, there were plenty of machines available and the Plaza never stopped it early or kicked people out (correct me if I'm wrong). So that somebody else, I think DarkOz, wrote about it only caused more people to benefit and didn't hurt those who already knew about it.



Well, they did disable the $5 VP shortly after you posting it on here (idk if posting here was the cause of it, IMO -- I think it's at least fair to say it very well could have been). I don't know of anyone from WOV that played it that wasn't already planning on playing it. The $5 VP being taken out not only hurt the APs financially (since we couldn't make money on it), but also hurt other non-APs who wouldn't been happy to sit on a machine for $10-20/hour leading up to the promo. Also wasted hours spent simming the game to come up with a bankroll required, other contingencies (what happens if they turn off the $5 machines mid-play after we're stuck $20k?), what kind of risk people want to take investing in the bankroll....then it gets muddied to all hell when the primary machines get taken out.
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