Wizard
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Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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Thanks for this post from:
IndyJeffrey
January 23rd, 2017 at 11:54:54 AM permalink
I know there is already a thread for Super Bowl LI but I think a thread devoted to prop betting would be of a benefit to the forum. Let's keep discussion about betting against the spread, money line, and over/under in the Super Bowl LI thread. This one can be for everything else, including the infamous "no safety" bet.

That said, Bob Dancer invited me to be a guest on the show to discuss my picks this year. This year, I declined. He put together a statement about why, which was accurate, but I preferred to write my own. That said, here it is. I'm posting it here because as long as I wrote a statement for Bob and Richard's show, I may as well post it here too, as I know I'll get asked eventually for my picks.

Quote: Wizard


After much thought and money lost, I have decided to retire from proposition bet making in the NFL. The primary reason for this is the game is played differently than it was in the early 2000's. The data on which my bets were made go back to 2000, when the rules were different. In an effort to make the game safer, the NFL has put a ball and chain on defenses, resulting in higher scoring games.

As evidence, between 2000 and 2005, the average total points scored per game was 41.92. In the regular season of 2016 it was 45.54. That may not sound like huge difference, but advantages have been slim lately, so an increase in points scored of 8.6% in points scored makes a difference in perceived advantages. Virtually all the props I like favored boring, uneventful, and low-scoring games. This should not come as a surprise, as the square bettors prefer prop bets that favor exactly the opposite.

Another change in the game is kickers are now much better than they were just ten years ago. In the 2000 season there were an average of 2.92 field goals per game. In the 2016 regular season there were 3.34. I figure this is partially due to the higher scoring nature of the game and also the kickers can simply kick further. In the entire 2000 season there were 37 field goals made of 50 yards or more, or 0.0714 per game. In the 2016 regular season there were 85, or 0.166 per game. I think it is very dangerous to use data from a period with few field goals to bet on a game played today.

Yet another factor is I think there is a lot more competition from other sharp prop bettors. No longer are the advantages over 20%, which were commonplace ten years ago. I don't know where all these competitors came from but I suspect I'm partially responsible for drawing attention to betting NFL prop bets. In other words, I'm a victim of my own success.

Finally, the Super Bowls of 2014 and 2016 were abject disasters for me. While, 2015 went well, I know the trend since I started doing this around 2005 would be a negative one. Four safeties in the last eight Super Bowls have not helped.

In conclusion, I am not saying that I will absolutely never make another prop bet. In fact, I made some on the AFC and NFC championship games, which went badly. I may make some small wagers that I have made every Super Bowl, just because old habits are hard to die, but I won't be betting thousands of dollars on each one like I used to do. More like in the low hundreds. Nor will I be promoting specific bets here or on the radio. Sorry, but for Super Bowl 2017, you're on your own.

It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
billryan
billryan
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January 23rd, 2017 at 12:36:46 PM permalink
I generally make two SB bets, unless The NY football Giants are involved.
1) There will be a safety. I won one year on the very last play of the game( Baltimore) and the next year on the very first play( Seattle).
2) Overtime. I haven't collected yet. Came damn close the one year as it was tied with under a minute to play.
However, every year I lose, I toss $5 more in the next year. When it eventually hits, I'll collect all my losses.

Enjoy.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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January 23rd, 2017 at 12:41:15 PM permalink
Thanks for the courtesy Wizard. I appreciate how much you have helped us here, and am a little sad that your bountiful garden has been trampled on as a result.

However, I look forward to hearing about the successful evolution of your database, and receiving any timely crumbs off of your table.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
RS
RS
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January 23rd, 2017 at 2:33:37 PM permalink
Thanks for helping us with the prop bets in year(s) past.

How far does your data go, or is it up until now (ie: does it include 2010-2016)?
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 23rd, 2017 at 2:50:42 PM permalink
Quote: RS

Thanks for helping us with the prop bets in year(s) past.

How far does your data go, or is it up until now (ie: does it include 2010-2016)?



You're welcome. The data covers every game from the 2000 to 2014 seasons. I never bothered to update it for the 2015 or 2016 seasons, as it is rather time consuming to end enter every single score. Plus, there was a defensive two-point conversion on 12/6/15, between the Saints and Panthers, that my program is not set up to handle. I would probably have to just ignore that game to make things work, which I hate to do. Somehow, I'm more comfortable removing a whole season from the data than a single game.
Last edited by: Wizard on Jan 23, 2017
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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January 23rd, 2017 at 3:51:33 PM permalink
Mike,

Thanks for all the education and entertainment the last few years. Sorry to hear it's no longer lucrative.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
MrV
MrV
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January 23rd, 2017 at 4:27:21 PM permalink
I don't bet sports, but for those who absolutely, positively are too lazy to do the work for themselves, I have two words: "John Patrick."

Not that you should; but you could.
"What, me worry?"
IndyJeffrey
IndyJeffrey
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January 23rd, 2017 at 5:00:36 PM permalink
Is there an on-line list(s) of prop bets presently offered? I saw a list on bovada, but how about Vegas casinos?
djatc
djatc
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January 23rd, 2017 at 5:25:27 PM permalink
Thanks Mike for the fun times. I love Super bowl betting, so many prop bets going on in one game.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
Boz
Boz
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January 23rd, 2017 at 6:58:57 PM permalink
Not to be the negative guy here, but do you see any opportunities out there?

Meanwhile I'm betting no Safety, not only in the spirit of the Wiz but because I still think it is a good bet regardless of a few bad years. In fact I think the past failures only make it a better bet.

I do hope you look at the data out and come back with picks in the future. You may think, rightly, the game has changed, but I still believe there are good bets out there. I just may not be the guy to find them but you are.

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