2017 KY Derby & Triple Crown contenders
Quote: DrawingDeadSome of the firstest fastest remarks on the race I've heard seem to be saying that, besides Thunder Snow's problems, Classic Empire just had a trip where he got mugged in an alley, and robbed on the subway, then run over by a taxi, and lost all chance. Didn't catch the rough racing luck incident(s) they're chatting about myself. Did those here focusing on that one see it like that?
I was watching AD from the start and lost track of CE. After watching the replay, I can say Leparoux is definitely no John Velazquez.
Velazquez made that look easy. He actually squeezed Fast and Accurate up against the rail, made him go behind AD, and got rid of that little pest. LOL. Nice run.
I didn't really put much effort into the derby this year like all years, but wanted to. My tolerance overload for horseracing has been met, having a little trouble getting into it for a while. Got Common Sense Handicapping from the library a week or so ago and haven't even cracked it open yet. Yet I feel I have to write this so I won't forget, in the future, I must check out horses nobody is talking about and not just ignore them.
If I would have thought about the derby at all, I should have seen and remembered Gunnevera not catching Always Dreaming. I'd seen the race, just was sold on Gunnevera too early in the year, I stopped thinking. If you will say Gunnevera will be different at some point catching them the next time, where are you supposed to see this happening if there aren't races.
#3 Fast and Accurate- paid $200,000 supplement to get into the derby after winning Spiral stakes and was not nominated into the derby. In the beginning of the year, the fee is only $50 iirc.
#5 Always Dreaming- Won Florida Derby, fastest time since 1978. Bet against Pletcher, come out on a stretcher. Should have known.
#7 Girvin-named after an almost deserted West Texas town
#10 Gunnevera-ridden by Javier Castallano who has never finished in the money in ten derby tries.
#11 Battle of Midway-never raced as a 2 year old. 2nd in the Santa Anita derby.
#14 Classic Empire, has never won a race leading from gate to wire. Trainer Mark Casse believed there to be an inside track bias, although only 1 race that day won on the rail.
#17 Irish War Cry. Post position 17, 0/38 winning the derby. I dont understand this, the derby is 143 years old and has had 30 entrants. Father Curlin won Breeders' cup classic, on sloppy track, but had never ran on slop. 9 horses in the derby had never ran on a sloppy track, including Always dreaming.
Watching the race, I realize why I hate the derby. The camera angles are no good, they don't show the horses loading into the gate, and too much screaming being heard during the race.
Quote: onenickelmiracleMaybe next year, favorite/all/all.
I was so disappointed by this year's Derby. 5 years in a row by favorites. People will blame the points system, but under the old system, the only real changes would be Untrapped and Patch out, and Royal Mo and Master Plan in.
There was speed in the Derby like I thought there would be, but for some reason, the closers didn't close. I'm guessing it was the track conditions. This year was harder than most because you really just had no way of knowing how the track was going to be at race time. Oh well, onto the Preakness...
I'll keep trying to beat Always Dreaming. I hope I don't try to beat him into the Triple Crown.
My first thought is - Conquest Mo Money.
Always Dreaming is highly likely to run.
Lookin At Lee and Hench are being considered.
Classic Empire is possible with an improving eye issue.
Conquest Mo Money will be supplemented into the race (for $150k).
Multiplier and Senior Investment are being considered.
Gunnevera is being considered.
Royal Mo is likely to run.
Cloud Computing is possible.
The last 2 runners (Royal Mo & Cloud Computing) are horses I had Derby future bets with. Cloud Computing was in with points for the Derby (but passed on the race) and Royal Mo was #21 and did not make the field. I obviously like both runners in the next Triple Crown races. Royal Mo was flattered some with the performance of Battle Of Midway (3rd in the Derby). Both have very good tactical speed to be forwardly placed the Preakness.
With that being said, AD has the look of a horse that is very good right now. Perfect race in the Derby. Was in the ideal spot (set up by his ability to be very close to the lead) and continued on when the running really started down the stretch. It is difficult to fault his last 2 races. What will be his odds in the Preakness? Even money or lower (4/5,3/5,2/5 etc.)? I would guess they will be lower even money with 2 great races in a row.
I would be tempted to use glue, but there must be a reason they don't.Quote: DrawingDeadGirvin will be running on a quarter crack, assuming he goes to post Saturday. For those not familiar, a quarter crack is basically a hoof that has cracked kind of like a split in a fingernail, except that a big powerful horse is running on that somewhat larger equivalent of a nail, and with the crack the force of running hard tends to force it to spread apart farther and deeper. At worst, if not properly cared for, potentially with fatal results. I don't bet on horses with quarter cracks. I just don't. At all. Ever.
There are things that can be done to sometimes allow some horses to run on some quarter cracks, including "bar shoes" that help hold the hoof together. In less publicized events, showing up with bar shoes and the like is the usual way of discovering that someone is trying to run on a quarter crack. I understand he's been staying in shape mostly by swimming, with some light work on a synthetic surface. The trainer says he's had a special custom bar-shoe made for him, he's recovered quickly from a quarter crack before, and he's been doing great, and he's confident he'll be able to run well. Personally I'm about as impressed by that kind of statement as an owner's assertion that he fed him a carrot yesterday and he had four legs and a tail attached while eating it.
Your money, your choice.
Normal horseshoe:
Examples of bar-shoes:
Quote: source drf.com
Pimlico Race Course Track Layout
Pimlico Race Course Track Layout
Main Track: One Mile, oval.
Turf Course: Seven Furlongs.
Distanc from last turn to finish line: 1,152 Feet.
Takeout Information
Win, place, and show: 18%
Daily Double and Exacta wagering: 21%
Trifecta and Superfecta wagering: 25.75%
Pick-3 and Pick-4: 25.75%
Pick-5: 18%
Seems very possible. Conquest Mo Money did run really well in the Arkansas Derby besides all the weaving(jockey trying to change leads?)) and will be with rest as a new shooter. That's probably where to focus on all the new shooters coming in. Who knows maybe an exacta of the new shooters will occur. Yet, you see in your mind, Always Dreaming pulling away in his last two races. Two weeks is short rest, and I keep hearing Pletcher doesn't know how to get a horse ready in two weeks. Tell me about his horses that ran in the derby and how they did in the Preakness.Quote: FinsRule
My first thought is - Conquest Mo Money.
I've noticed Always Dreaming has in all races been in posts 1,4 or 5. Wondering if he'll struggle with an outside post in the Preakness. He shoots a straight path everytime because he can, and saves ground. Always Dreaming maiden race, beginning of video
Sportingnews.com quoted AD 10/11, CE 9/2 CMM 16/1 quoting from Bovada. I'm sold AD will not win 110%.Quote: FinsRuleAlways Dreaming will probably be 4/5 for the Preakness. I might just wait for the Belmont to really take my shot at him.
what does UNU mean?Quote: bazooookaForbes mag and UNU crew like AD more than most.
I see now. http://unu.ai/derby-debrief/Quote: bazooookaUNU is the name of an artificial intelligence outfit that makes predictions.
Btw, Mike Smith is on Gunnevera now. Wonder if Gunnevera will be ridden differently. I keep seeing this horse have nothing at the end of races, maybe they'll surprise us, I've just about given up on his chances already.
I wont know what to think if the Preakness is sloppy too, betting on it being dry. No way to know yet. Bazooka, I'm not a handicapper just so you know. Basically just running a thought experiment. I guess I'm a visual handicapper with little experience. I like watching the races over and over, or seeing a winning possibility in a horse that just needs to show again or improve.
This post is in my mind about Gunnevera. I want to exclude Gunnevera thinking 4th is the best he can do. Except with Mike Smith things can change. They could have a recipe to surprise. The image of Gunnevera coming down the stretch on a treadmill steady pace is terrible. Can't win that way unless the lead horses tire more suddenly. I'm really down on the idea of the Moes taking this race. Pimlico has to be dry or I'm not betting without a dart board. Gunnevera isn't a big chance in my head, just I'm afraid of a small chance of being burned.Quote: lilredroosterThere is no strict definition of a closer or a deep closer but if a horse is 5 or more lengths back at the 2nd call I would call that horse a closer. The horse you like Gunnerva is definitely a closer and if you look at the free PPs that Keeneone provided you will see that he was 9 lengths back at the 2nd call in his last race and in another race as much as 15 lengths back. The closer tries to take advantage of front runners who have tired by expending more energy in the early stages of the race and because of this he can sometimes draw clear of them late in the race. He has the disadvantage of often being forced wide or getting blocked or having to check. Closers often tend to be plodders and they are rarely capable of the burst of speed that is the mark of a great horse. However there have been throughout racing history a few great closers. I just looked again at Gunnerva's PPs and I see that he is also capable of being closer to the lead as what I would call a stalker and in those races where he has stalked he has done well.
http://interactives.courier-journal.com/docs/derby2017/derby.pdf
My top picks now, Conquest Mo Money, Royal Mo, Classic Empire, Gunnevera, but with much confusion. Cloud Computing
scares me, Multiplier, Hedge Fund, I just don't know yet.
Maryland!
The Old Line's bugle, fife, and drum,
Maryland!
She is not dead, nor deaf, nor dumb-
Huzza! she spurns the NORTHERN SCUM!
She breathes! she burns! she'll come! she'll come!
Maryland! My Maryland!
sorry Yanks. No hard feelings.
anyway they omit singing that verse because of the controversy surrounding it.
love the 2nd to last line "She breathes! she burns! she'll come! she'll come!"
of course she'll come. Maryland boys know how to bada bada bing!
The four horse Impressive Edge ran 4th in the Florida Derby, 8/1 is tempting.
Race 4, Saturday
Might gamble $1 tri box 2,3,4, $20 W #3.
Quote: Todd Pletcher discussing Always Dreaming on TVGI think he's(Always Dreaming) continuing to improve, actually, and, uh, you know I thought, uh, you know the first two races were so easy for him that, uh, I don't think we really took much out of him. The Florida Derby seemed to bring him forward another notch, and you know I think that, you know the derby was an even stronger performance than that, so. I, I think just by his physical make up, that he's a horse that, that hopefully can continue to e, even get better, than he al, already is. The one adjustment, that I'm going to make, IS I DON'T PLAN to breeze him. I don't, I don't think there's enough to gain out of a breeze, really. He's doing well, he's super fit, I'm not concerned about that. And just from my previous experience being here at Pimlico, I know it's pretty quiet, leading up to next week anyways. And, so, what we got out there this morning, was exactly what I was hoping for. I think there was one or two other horses on the track while he was training, and, I think that quiet environment is gonna, gonna, allow him to fill back up a little bit this week.
Quote: FinsRuleAlways Dreaming will probably be 4/5 for the Preakness. I might just wait for the Belmont to really take my shot at him.
I agree, below even money sounds about right. I may reluctantly bet against AD in the Preakness. In some ways the potential Preakness field looks better than the Derby field.
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Quote: onenickelmiracleAny insight on the Peter Pan Stakes? I think I might bet on Timeline. Meantime is out of Shackleford, that would be quite shameful being beat by him.
Since you mentioned this race and it is the local prep for the Belmont Stakes...Quote: onenickelmiracleFor 5/1, I'll take a gamble on Shackleford's son Meantime. Probably won't win, but it did break his Maiden on Earth Day. No way to pass it up, I'm actually not excited to bet 7/5 or 2/1.
The four horse Impressive Edge ran 4th in the Florida Derby, 8/1 is tempting.
Race 4, Saturday
Might gamble $1 tri box 2,3,4, $20 W #3.
Timeline (the obvious favorite) would be my pick.
2 wins in 2 starts. I like his first start better than his second. He ran 2 bullet workouts over the track since his last win and they likely backed him off in his most recent work. Love seeing Hard Spun on top. His odds will be very low but it is a small field. GL
If anyone wants the pps for the Peter Pan Stakes, Click the link and click on Master Plan - Ultimate PPs link:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html
Anyone willing to give me 25/1 that Always Dreaming never wins a stakes race again in his career before retirement?
And with Empire Maker on the bottom, fetched half a million at the Keeneland September yearling sale. This one had "Belmont Stakes" stamped on his forehead before he took his first breath, and now he'd have a shot at a stud career even if he stubs his toe in the stall tonight and never runs again, including interest from owners of some classic distance quality overseas broodmares. He reminds me a lot of Christophe Clement's 3 y/o colt Tonalist at this point in his career. This one interests me a lot more than anything that ran in the Derby. It is supposed to be raining in New York. As it was for Tonalist's Peter Pan as well.Quote: Keeneone...<SNIP>,,,
[The Peter Pan @BEL]... Timeline (the obvious favorite) would be my pick.
2 wins in 2 starts. I like his first start better than his second. He ran 2 bullet workouts over the track since his last win and they likely backed him off in his most recent work. Love seeing Hard Spun on top. His odds will be very low but it is a small field. GL
If anyone wants the pps for the Peter Pan Stakes, Click the link and click on Master Plan - Ultimate PPs link:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html
With four graded events on the card at BEL, that's *only* race 4. I don't even know what race they''d call the "feature" event tomorrow. Race 8 is the Man 'O War, Grade 1 at a mile & 3/8 on the Widener turf. I'd like to see a local work, but I do like the value I think I'll get on the Dermot Weld shipper. By Fastnet Rock out of Galileo*, Zhukova is a 5 y/o mare, but a multiple Group stakes winner in Ireland at classic distances, defeating good European company including males in a Group 3 and smoking Found by 8 lengths in a listed stakes at Curragh last year. John Velasquez takes the mount.
Supposed to rain in Baltimore as well. Good luck if you're betting the Preakness. And hope the Pimlico people can manage to keep the electricity on, the timer working, and drunks from running onto the track trying to punch running horses in the nose again this year.
EDIT: I should have said "out of a Galileo MARE" of course.
I only capped the Peter Pan because it was mentioned here, and I am glad ONM mentioned it. I will likely have a smallish wager on Timeline with an exacta box including Lookin at Blessing. Lookin at Blessing deserves to be the longest odds in the race but there are things in the pps that say maybe to me...
He has run twice at Belmont and won once. He has run in some nice fields (including a well beaten 5th to Always Dreaming @ Gulfstream Park). He perked up in his recent Saratoga work throwing a bullet for 4 furlongs. And perhaps most interesting is Birdstone on the bottom with Nick Zito as his trainer. He is a true longshot (and likely outclassed) but it is a small field...
If that comes through I will parlay it to Zhukova in the Man 'O War. I like your analysis and I love when euro ladies run against the boys in the US on the turf. She is getting a 9 lb break to the favorite and the track may be good/soft/yielding which may enhance her chances. GLTA
Quote: FinsRuleAlways Dreaming will probably be 4/5 for the Preakness. I might just wait for the Belmont to really take my shot at him.
that's a good thought. a lot of potential triple crown winners have failed to win the belmont stakes. if he wins the preakness he will surely be bet way down and his rivals will be served up at juicy odds. many do not like the extra quarter mile (compared to the longest distance they have ever run before). i don't know what his pedigree says about his stamina. maybe Dead can enlighten us there. he may have to go up against horses who have had more rest and are improving.
Quote: lilredroosterthat's a good thought. a lot of potential triple crown winners have failed to win the belmont stakes. if he wins the preakness he will surely be bet way down and his rivals will be served up at juicy odds. many do not like the extra quarter mile (compared to the longest distance they have ever run before). i don't know what his pedigree says about his stamina. maybe Dead can enlighten us there. he may have to go up against horses who have had more rest and are improving.
Cliffs: It doesn't say "mile and a half" to me at all. But it wouldn't have said "mile and a quarter" either, which is why I didn't consider him last week. Given a different pedigree with the same PPs, I would have.
Let's give him the benefit of ignoring the at-best mediocre (for the purpose of running at classic distances > 9f) AWD figures of Bodemeister's progeny, which come in at 7.1f to date. This is very defensible, given the extremely limited sample size of such a young sire, and the strong tendency in the industry to start out by breeding new sires to precocious type mares to get early 2 y/o sprint wins when first establishing a "book" for the first few seasons.
So, we then go back to the well established record of the progeny of both grandsires, the dads of both his pop and of his mom. In that case, their genetic influence on his physiological distance capacity should be weighted equally. Empire Maker's contribution is quite stout, exactly what you'd want to see at an AWD of 7.7f. But his damsire In Excess was a stone cold sprint sire, with his "get" producing an AWD of 6.1f in his prolific career of 18 seasons at stud, before he passed away several years ago at the ripe old horse age of 26. It is almost hard to produce such a short AWD among a large sample of thoroughbreds that includes their fully mature years beyond their collective juvenile seasons, and besides the effect on the distance figure as this colt's damsire, should also lead one to doubt how much improvement should really be expected with greater maturity, compared to others.
The net result of this attempt to make the most favorable interpretation of his pedigree results in an AWD figure of 6.9f. On average, I'd expect that could be a late developing sprinter or possibly a nice speedy miler. I'd definitely be looking to bet against him getting 12 furlongs at Belmont if he's there. But, he's already significantly outrun his pedigree.
The Man o war, many scratched due to rain, not going to play either. Obviously will not be on the turf. Will probably not bother betting there either.
He brought the horse early, a mistake he felt was made with Super Saver waiting. The other horses mostly are not there, where it's been raining at Pimlico, hampering efforts.
Just my personal opinion, dont like what I see with Royal Mo in this video, but I'm not an expert or know the horse well.
Even if I think Always Dreaming will not win the Preakness, it's still a difficult decision. Conquest Mo Money would be my number one horse because he skipped the derby and ran well in the Arkansas derby, beaten by Classic Empire. Lookin at Lee did well in the derby, but was helped by Thunder Snow, in a difficult post, ridden by Corey Lanerie who is very experienced at Churchill, the best there. I'm really not thinking about Gunnevera. Mike Smith scares me to give up on the horse.
So you could say nailed it twice. On a 2/5 winner and a 4/5 winner; so brilliant handicapping, NOT. Apparently everyone from the parking lot attendant to sheepherders in Mongolia emptied their pockets to get down on these. Nice to have it right in a purely sporting sense, compared to the alternative, and hope those who went along enjoy the bag of potato chips their winnings have now paid for. All things considered, I don't mind the relatively decent payout for Place on Zhukova, though.
Quote: DrawingDeadAll things considered, I don't mind the relatively decent payout for Place on Zhukova, though.
I'm sure you know the Dr. Z idea of scoping out the place and show pools to get an outsize payout there. I have not considered it to be very useful except at very small tracks where you can only make a small bet or you shoot yourself in the foot. But it looks like it would have been useful in this race, especially if Zhukova had come in 2nd instead of 1st. Maybe a great deal of place money was on Wake Forest.
Yes, I read his book carefully and enthusiastically (in spite of the cheesey title) and used the concept to good effect back in the day. Now, at major tracks if isn't unusual for me to see a pattern of money flow something like these proportions of the pools wagered on a favorite...Quote: lilredroosterI'm sure you know the Dr. Z idea of scoping out the place and show pools to get an outsize payout there. I have not considered it to be very useful except at very small tracks where you can only make a small bet or you shoot yourself in the foot. But it looks like it would have been useful in this race, especially if Zhukova had come in 2nd instead of 1st. Maybe a great deal of place money was on Wake Forest.
At > 5 min to post
WIN: 28%
PLC: 23%
SHW: 17%
At < 1 min to post
WIN: 29%
PLC: 27%
SHW: 28%
...at a track doing about 8 freaking million $ in daily handle. Phooey.
I think you might be the first person I've 'heard' mention Ziemba & Hausch in this century. I see the copyright date on mine is 1987, revised from the 1st edition in 1984. I think the obvious simplest straightforward direct applications of the contents were pretty much toast by about 1992-ish or thereabouts. Maybe you could still do the original "Z" thing at Portland Meadows today, betting into a $200 pool.
I sometimes look at place and show pools, but the issue is that the computers put the bets in a second before the race goes off. IMO, the only useful application for looking at the show pools is to bet against bridge jumpers. At Mountaineer and Charles Town (where there are more bridge jumpers because of mandatory $2.20 show payout), you'll find bridge jumpers on 3/5 or 4/5 horses. Those are easy bet against opportunities.
Ha. Darn it, my process of elimination doesn't work when the horses themselves become eliminated. Lol.Quote: FinsRuleRoyal Mo is out of the Preakness. I'm still learning toward passing and waiting until the Belmont. They were talking on TVG about all the Derby winners that have won on the lead seem to do fine in the Preakness, and it makes sense. I'll probably just box Always Dreaming and Conquest Mo Money in a small exacta.
4 or 5 to 1 I hope in Preakness.
All the horses that I would love to pick to beat Always Dreaming in the Belmont are trying to beat him in the Preakness. I wish they would all wait, let AD win by 15 lengths, and then he would go off at 2-5 at Belmont.
I didn't see or hear about him as a two year old, because I wasn't following. Kind of rebelled against him, thought it was ok to count him out after his less than hoped performance this year. Kept it turned off before the Arkansas, but give him respect now. I'm always suspicious of hyped up horses, usually tend to be repelled by them. 1/5, 3/5 horses lose every day many times over, it's good not being a believer playing the inverse. He cannot be counted out.Quote: ronniefClassic Empire is the horse to beat ! See the pix in winners circle. No, forget the roses, not a speck of mud on the iockeys jersey. CE has won 5 of 8 races. Wheeled in one and dumped jockey. 1st start as 3 year old, he was refusing to train and had foot injury, finished 3rd. Next race Arkansaw Derby, won despite being only second start in 2017. In the Derby he got slammed between 2 horses and knocked down at the start, Had to be urged to be 10and1/2 lengths behind at the 1/4 pole. started to rally wide in stretch, had his run interrupted when bumped and carried out, regrouped and churned on. Still beat 16 horses.
4 or 5 to 1 I hope in Preakness.
Being knocked around in the derby was quite a handicap, and he still managed fourth. Yes, so on bad days, he'll be near the top as you pointed out. As I'm not with Always Dreaming now, but wished I had been in the derby, all I can see is negative. Still a good horse, but I don't think he'll be up for the Preakness. Will have to wait for post positions, but Ill agree Classic Empire will be the horse to beat, and Always Dreaming will be the horse everyone believes is the horse to beat. I also need to think about the other horses, but can see a boring Classic Empire/Always Dreaming exacta, but that still might pay $20-30.
Very dynamic and complicated the whole thing is, maybe like Fins rule mentioned the horses aren't waiting for the Belmont, because they sense weakness now and no need to wait. I still don't know the other horses yet, Cloud Computing is the main one on my radar though just because Matt Carouthers is in love with the horse, you can tell when it's mentioned in front of him. It's all too complex and expensive attempting to hit a trifecta for me. I like Conquest Mo Money, could stick him in front of the top 2, that's about as complicated as I can see. Still need posts yet again. I'll have to think about it, watch these races over, rereading the thread.
10. CONQUEST MO MONEY
9. LOOKIN AT LEE
8. SENIOR INVESTMENT
7. TERM OF ART
6. GUNNEVERA
5. CLASSIC EMPIRE
4 . ALWAYS DREAMING
3 HENCE
2. CLOUD COMPUTING
1. MULTIPLIER
Quote: onenickelmiraclePost positions:
10. CONQUEST MO MONEY
9. LOOKIN AT LEE
8. SENIOR INVESTMENT
7. TERM OF ART
6. GUNNEVERA
5. CLASSIC EMPIRE
4 . ALWAYS DREAMING
3 HENCE
2. CLOUD COMPUTING
1. MULTIPLIER
I am going to bet just cuz ,not that I know a thing. I will be boxing 4,5,6,and 10 for the trifecta, possibly the superfecta. Just wanted to say so ahead of time.
Safer just to do wps, I'll probably do only that. Even if I learned what I could, just going to remain a guessing game to get that right. The no talent talents on tvg try telling me statistics about new shooters not fairing well, but this year is different and incomparable. Even if a new shooter doesn't win, they're likely to be in the trifecta. Main point, the sloppy track and bad starts had a lot to do with the results of the derby, doesn't translate well to the Preakness because none of that is going to happen or happen the same way.
