Half Point Parlay Cards -- 2016 Season
Here is the week 1 William Hill card.
Here are my favorite plays, from best to worst.
| Pick | Market | Basis points |
|---|---|---|
| Wash +3.5 | 3 | 27.0 |
| Clev +4.5 | 3.5 | 19.0 |
| Buf +3.5 | +3 EV | 17.0 |
| Mia +10.5 | 10 | 16.2 |
| Chic +6.5 | 6 | 13.0 |
| Atl -2.5 | -3 +110 | 5.8 |
I haven't had a chance to put anything in yet. Not a very strong week so probably won't bother.
Positive variance to all my fellow players!
Quote: WizardPositive variance to all my fellow players!
So long as there is good EV, I'll accept whatever variance comes along with 10-teams
DET +3.5 is probably borderline for a pick.
Sorry if this has been discussed before, but have Totals (under/over) on these cards ever been considered with the strategy?
Quote: KeeneoneSorry if this has been discussed before, but have Totals (under/over) on these cards ever been considered with the strategy?
I'm sure it has been discussed before. I find a half point off of common totals like 41, 43, and 47 is not worth the price you pay for it. Same answer with college football, half points just aren't that significant. However, sometimes you need to pad a card with some marginal plays, so both totals and college sides can be worthwhile fillers.
Quote: WizardI'm sure it has been discussed before. I find a half point off of common totals like 41, 43, and 47 is not worth the price you pay for it. Same answer with college football, half points just aren't that significant. However, sometimes you need to pad a card with some marginal plays, so both totals and college sides can be worthwhile fillers.
Thanks for the answer.
One "filler" I was looking at is the Sunday night ARI/NE total on the cards @ 47.5
Under is looking increasing good vs the market...
Quote: KeeneoneThanks for the answer.
One "filler" I was looking at is the Sunday night ARI/NE total on the cards @ 47.5
Under is looking increasing good vs the market...
Plus you get extra credit for going under, as opposed to over.
Quote: WizardIt's that time of year again! Get your money ready for some half point parlay card action!
Here is the week 1 William Hill card.
Here are my favorite plays, from best to worst.
Pick Market Basis points Wash +3.5 3 27.0 Clev +4.5 3.5 19.0 Buf +3.5 +3 EV 17.0 Mia +10.5 10 16.2 Chic +6.5 6 13.0 Atl -2.5 -3 +110 5.8
I haven't had a chance to put anything in yet. Not a very strong week so probably won't bother.
Positive variance to all my fellow players!
I want to once again give Mike Mega kudos for doing this for the forum. Why isn't this week worth a 6 team parlay?
Quote: WizardI'm sure it has been discussed before. I find a half point off of common totals like 41, 43, and 47 is not worth the price you pay for it.
But if you're adding one game to go from 25-1 to 50-1 or 100-1 to 200-1 (or even adding two games to from 200-1 to 800-1) essentially you aren't paying any vig and getting a free half point (or more).
A lot of the guys/teams who seem to have the most success are doing a lot of 10s. And even 12s at MGM last year until they lowered the odds.
The more teams the better the EV. Still put most of the strongest plays on all the cards, just add a few marginal games on each one. Because you can now put in a lot more cards for smaller amounts and because there are so many more games you can round robin the variance isn't increasing by the same rate as the payouts.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: WizardIt's that time of year again! Get your money ready for some half point parlay card action!
Here is the week 1 William Hill card.
Here are my favorite plays, from best to worst.
Pick Market Basis points Wash +3.5 3 27.0 Clev +4.5 3.5 19.0 Buf +3.5 +3 EV 17.0 Mia +10.5 10 16.2 Chic +6.5 6 13.0 Atl -2.5 -3 +110 5.8
I haven't had a chance to put anything in yet. Not a very strong week so probably won't bother.
Positive variance to all my fellow players!
I want to once again give Mike Mega kudos for doing this for the forum. Why isn't this week worth a 6 team parlay?
If I knew where I could legally bet these online, I'd box all six for 5 team parlays.
Quote: SOOPOO
I want to once again give Mike Mega kudos for doing this for the forum. Why isn't this week worth a 6 team parlay?
You're welcome. It is definitely worth it. I'm hoping to get some cards in tomorrow before kick off.
Quote: WizardI'm hoping to get some cards in tomorrow before kick off.
Glad I never bothered. 0-4 so far with 2 games unresolved.
Here is the same information, including the market lines:
| Underdog | Favoriate | Line on Underdog | Market on Underdog |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Buff | 0.5 | -1 |
| Tenn | Det | 5.5 | 6 |
| KC | Hou | 2.5 | 2.5 EV |
| Mia | NEP | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| Clev | Bal | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| Cin | Pitt | 3.5 | 3.5 -115 |
| Dal | Wash | 2.5 | 2.5 EV |
| NOS | NYG | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| SF | Car | 13.5 | 13.5 |
| TB | Ariz | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| StL | Sea | 5.5 | ? |
| Indy | Den | 6.5 | 6 |
| Atl | Oak | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Jack | SD | 3.5 | 3 EV |
| Min | GB | 2.5 | 2.5 -105 |
| Phil | Chic | 3.5 | 3 EV |
Not a very strong week. Maybe it will look better as the lines ripen. I suspect that the Seattle game will be scratched from the cards.
I gather that whatever advantage you can derive, however seldom, must be significant because parlay cards are pretty high-vig.
Unfortunately or fortunately, however you want to look at it. Mike has a full write up on it on the odds site. It used to be a lot better, however we are losing stores.Quote: JoeshlabotnikLooking at your week 1 picks, it appears as though your chosen strong plays are when the 1/2 point moves the bet away from a number such as 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, etc. I would imagine that in particular, getting 3.5 (or laying 2.5) instead of 3, and +7.5/-6.5 would be especially valuable. My question is, is that your basic approach when looking for value on these cards? If not, what does stand out?
I gather that whatever advantage you can derive, however seldom, must be significant because parlay cards are pretty high-vig.
I predict the Rams get shut out for the second week in a row. They stunk against San Francisco. What will be different against the Seahawks? On the other hand, the Rams defense could give up 42 all by themselves.
Here is the same information, including the market lines:
| Underdog | Favoriate | Line on Underdog | Market on Underdog |
|---|---|---|---|
| Den | Cin | 3.5 | +3 (+105) |
| Oak | Tenn | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Jack | Bal | 0.5 | -1 |
| Clev | Mia | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| Wash | NYG | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Det | GB | 7.5 | 7 |
| Minn | Car | 6.5 | 7 |
| SF | Sea | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| Rams | TB | 4.5 | 5.5 |
| Phil | Pitt | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| NYJ | KC | 2.5 | +3 (-120) |
| SD | Indy | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Chic | Dal | 7.5 | +7 (-105) |
| Atl | NO | 3.5 | 3 |
This week has some decent picks. I'll be playing it. Here are my favorite six:
| Pick | Market | Basis points |
|---|---|---|
| Atl +3.5 | 3 | 27.0 |
| Det +7.5 | 7 | 19.6 |
| Chic +7.5 | +7 (-105) | 14.6 |
| Den +3.5 | +3 (+105) | 12.0 |
| Car -6.5 | -7 | 8.4 |
| KC -2.5 | -3 EV | 5.8 |
Quote: Wizard
This week has some decent picks. I'll be playing it. Here are my favorite five:...
Hehe... Were six teams included on the list on purpose?
Quote: AyecarumbaOn the other hand, the Rams defense could give up 42 all by themselves.
Only off by 39......
Quote: SOOPOOOnly off by 39......
hehe... Missed it by thaaat much!...
The Golden Nugget card is the same as WH except:
1. Includes Buf +4.5. That game wasn't on the WH card.
2. Jack +0.5 (instead of Bal).
3. Minn +7.5 (instead of +6.5)
4. No Monday night game.
Quote: WizardI got my cards in yesterday with the six picks listed above. One six team and a round robin by fives.
The Golden Nugget card is the same as WH except:
1. Includes Buf +4.5. That game wasn't on the WH card.
2. Jack +0.5 (instead of Bal).
3. Minn +7.5 (instead of +6.5)
4. No Monday night game.
Bills is on WH card. I'm looking at it now. 3rd from top of NFL section. Unless you mean they're just not taking bets on it.
Quote: rudeboyoiBills is on WH card. I'm looking at it now. 3rd from top of NFL section. Unless you mean they're just not taking bets on it.
I stand corrected.
On to next week, keep the picks coming...
Quote: z2newtonNo one has posted about last week. The wizards picks went 5/6 last week. I wonder if Chicago killed everyone's cards.
Carolina got killed. He was 4/6
Quote: GWAECarolina got killed. He was 4/6
That is correct. I always put 5 to 7 per card, so every card lost. I hear some other members did well.
Here is week 4.
| Underdog | Favorite | Line on Underdog | Market on Underdog |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | Cin | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Jack | Indy | 2.5 | 2.5 -105 |
| Clev | Wash | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Buf | NEP | ? | ? |
| NYJ | Sea | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Atl | Car | 3.5 | 3 EV |
| Chic | Det | 2.5 | +3 -120 |
| Tenn | Hou | 5.5 | 4.5 |
| Oak | Bal | 3.5 | 3 EV |
| TB | Den | 3.5 | 3 EV |
| SF | Dal | 2.5 | 2 |
| NO | SD | 3.5 | 4 |
| Rams | Ariz | 8.5 | 7.5 |
| KC | Pit | 5.5 | 4.5 |
| NYG | Min | 4.5 | 5 |
Three strong picks in there:
| Pick | Market | Basis points |
|---|---|---|
| Atl +3.5 | 3 EV | 17.0 |
| Det -2.5 | -3 (EV) | 5.8 |
| Oak +3.5 | 3 EV | 17.0 |
| TB +3.5 | 3 EV | 17.0 |
You may wonder why Det -2.5 gets only 5.8 basis points when all these games are buying the half off of an even money ugly side of 3. The reason is I give 5.6 basis points for betting any underdog and take away 5.6 for a favorite. Maybe one could argue that for small spreads the effect isn't as strong, but I didn't go that far in my analysis.
Quote: beachbumbabsSo is it this weekend the pool is playing , and there are only 3 strong picks? Yuck.
1 4 teamer, and 4 round robin with 3?
Other than just getting it over and done with, I can't see any reason to do it on such a weak week. There's no reason Roames or any one individual needs to be present and be the one who physically puts the picks in.Quote: beachbumbabsSo is it this weekend the pool is playing , and there are only 3 strong picks? Yuck.
There's plenty of members here including Mike that could handle doing it.
Quote: GWAECarolina got killed. He was 4/6
D'oh!
| Underdog | Favorite | Line on Underdog | Market on Underdog |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | Cin | 7.5 | 0 |
| Jack | Indy | 2.5 | 2.5 -105 |
| Clev | Wash | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Buf | NEP | ? | 7 |
| NYJ | Sea | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| Atl | Car | 3.5 | +3 (-105) |
| Chic | Det | 2.5 | +3 -105 |
| Tenn | Hou | 5.5 | 4.5 |
| Oak | Bal | 3.5 | 3.5 (-105) |
| TB | Den | 3.5 | 3 EV |
| SF | Dal | 2.5 | 2 |
| NO | SD | 3.5 | 4 |
| Rams | Ariz | 8.5 | 8 |
| KC | Pit | 5.5 | 4.5 |
| NYG | Min | 4.5 | 4 |
Only three solid picks, in my opinion:
| Pick | Market | Basis points |
|---|---|---|
| Atl +3.5 | +3 (-105) | 22.0 |
| Det -2.5 | -3 (-115) | 20.8 |
| TB +3.5 | 3 EV | 17.0 |
| Favorite | Underdog | Line on Underdog | Market on Underdog |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ariz | SF | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| Min | Hou | 6.5 | 7 |
| Mia | Tenn | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| NEP | Clev | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| Pitt | NYJ | 7.5 | 7 |
| Bal | Wash | 3.5 | 4 |
| Phil | Det | 3.5 | +3 (+110) |
| Indy | Chic | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Den | Atl | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Rams | Buff | 2.5 | 2 |
| Oak | SD | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| Cin | Dal | 0.5 | 1 |
| GB | NYG | 7.5 | +7 (-115) |
My best picks:
| Pick | Market | Basis points |
|---|---|---|
| Min -6.5 | -7 | 8.4 |
| NYJ +7.5 | 7 | 19.6 |
| NYG +7.5 | +7 (-115) | 24.6 |
With only three solid plays, week 5 is not looking so good, at least not at this time on Thursday afternoon. Things usually improve the closer you get to Sunday morning.
Was the monday night game not on the card? CAR vs. TB
Quote: z2newtonThanks wizard.
Was the monday night game not on the card? CAR vs. TB
You're welcome. That's correct. Maybe because the line is 7.
| Favorite | Underdog | Line on Underdog | Market on Underdog |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEP | Cin | 8.5 | 9 |
| NYG | Bal | 2.5 | 3 EV |
| Car | NOS | 3.5 | 2.5 (-105) |
| Pitt | Mia | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Chic | Jack | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Buff | sf | 7.5 | 9 |
| Det | Rams | 3.5 | 3 EV |
| Tenn | Clev | 7.5 | 7 |
| Phil | Wash | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Oak | KC | 0.5 | 1 |
| Sea | Atl | 6.5 | 6 |
| GB | Dal | 4.5 | 4 |
| Hou | Indy | 3.5 | 3 (-105) |
| Ariz | NYJ | 7.5 | 7.5 |
Here are my favorite picks.
| Pick | Market | Basis points |
|---|---|---|
| NOS +3.5 | 3 EV | 43.4 |
| NYG -2.5 | -3 (-120) | 25.8 |
| Indy +3.5 | 2.5 | 22.0 |
| Clev +7.5 | 7 | 19.6 |
| Rams +3.5 | 7 | 17.0 |
| Dal +4.5 | 4 | 12.3 |
| SF -7.5 | -9 | 5.8 |
How to spread it out? A bunch of small 4s or 5s? Maybe 1 7 and 1 with top 6, plus some 4s?
Quote: beachbumbabsWell! Yay for a strong week. Time to jump in, team?
I just posted in the other group before seeing this.
FYI I never really look at this thread, because im not a sports betting guy. I'll keep things going in the other thread for continuity, until Romes starts the new thread with our actual bets.
Quote: WizardWe finally have a good week in store for week 6. Here is the William Hill card.
Favorite Underdog Line on Underdog Market on Underdog NEP Cin 8.5 9 NYG Bal 2.5 3 EV Car NOS 3.5 2.5 (-105) Pitt Mia 7.5 7.5 Chic Jack 2.5 2.5 Buff sf 7.5 9 Det Rams 3.5 3 EV Tenn Clev 7.5 7 Phil Wash 2.5 2.5 Oak KC 0.5 1 Sea Atl 6.5 6 GB Dal 4.5 4 Hou Indy 3.5 3 (-105) Ariz NYJ 7.5 7.5
Here are my favorite picks.
Pick Market Basis points NOS +3.5 3 EV 43.4 NYG -2.5 -3 (-120) 25.8 Indy +3.5 2.5 22.0 Clev +7.5 7 19.6 Rams +3.5 7 17.0 Dal +4.5 4 12.3 SF -7.5 -9 5.8
SF is underdog. Not favorite
Quote: z2newtonWizard. I see 2 mistakes in your picks. SF should be +7.5 and the rams market should be +3 +3.5/ish. Not sure if these are typo's or if this affects your calculations.
You're right, I mean Buff -7.5, but at only 5.8 basis points, I personally wouldn't have bet it with so many other better picks. Regarding the Rams, 3 EV was the consensus offshore line at the time I wrote that post.
As I write this, the six other picks I would have had four wins, one likely win on Dal +4.5 (20-9 Dallas early in the fourth quarter), plus the Sunday night game on Indy +3.5.
So, my own story is that I took my two younger kids on a camping trip in southern Utah over the weekend. I was strongly thinking of putting in my cards at the Eureka in Mesquite on the way. I was very conflicted about it. My idea was to get seated somewhere for dinner and then sneak off and put the cards in while waiting for the food. However, I know casinos are not big on unaccompanied minors. Knowing I was betting the hot side of every pick, it could have taken a while for the cards to be approved, if they were. However, about 30 miles form Mesquite I got a text from a forum member saying a friend of his was having trouble getting cards in, so I blew off the idea.
At this point I'm not sure whether to be angry at myself for not trying or happy for the everybody else who took my advice, especially the Romes team, if they managed to get somebody to get the cards in.
Of course, a lot of the results will depend on Indy +3.5 this evening. Hopefully they will cover and somebody will at least buy me a beer.
Quote: WizardYou're right, I mean Buff -7.5, but at only 5.8 basis points, I personally wouldn't have bet it with so many other better picks. Regarding the Rams, 3 EV was the line at the time I wrote that post.
As I write this, the six other picks I would have had four wins, one likely win on Dal +4.5 (20-9 Dallas early in the fourth quarter), plus the Sunday night game on Indy +3.5.
So, my own story is that I took my two younger kids on a camping trip in southern Utah over the weekend. I was strongly thinking of putting in my cards at the Eureka in Mesquite on the way. I was very conflicted about it. My idea was to get seated somewhere for dinner and then sneak off and put the cards in while waiting for the food. However, I know casinos are not big on unaccompanied minors. Knowing I was betting the hot side of every pick, it could have taken a while for the cards to be approved, if they were. However, about 30 miles form Mesquite I got a text from a forum member saying a friend of his was having trouble getting cards in, so I blew off the idea.
At this point I'm not sure whether to be angry at myself for not trying or happy for the everybody else who took my advice, especially the Romes team, if they managed to get somebody to get the cards in.
Of course, a lot of the results will depend on Indy +3.5 this evening. Hopefully they will cover and somebody will at least buy me a beer.
It's been quiet from Romes. I have no idea if the bets ever got made. However, if they did at least you have a small piece of that.
Quote: GWAEIt's been quiet from Romes. I have no idea if the bets ever got made. However, if they did at least you have a small piece of that.
I hope he won't mind me saying that he asked me for help putting them in but I explained I would be out of town and suggested another local forum member to help. He thanked me for the suggestion and that's the last I heard. I appreciate the share you guys gave me and hope it got bet, but I tend to think nobody was available and/or able to get them in.
Quote: AxelWolfwe managed to get put our cards in with everyone out of town,
At least somebody did. Indy 10-0 as I write this. This could be a huge week for you.
