2016 Kentucky Derby

Mohaymen dominated in winning the Fountain of Youth stakes yesterday and he is undefeated and the no.1 ranked 3 year old as we head towards the Derby. He may face undefeated Nyquist in the Florida Derby on April 2 which is the final prep race before the Derby.

Can the POOR KID from Windsor Ont win the DERBY this year AGAIN?

Can almost hear him saying in the winners circle..... "I'll Have Another"

Quote: lilredrooster

Mohaymen dominated in winning the Fountain of Youth stakes yesterday and he is undefeated and the no.1 ranked 3 year old as we head towards the Derby. He may face undefeated Nyquist in the Florida Derby on April 2 which is the final prep race before the Derby.

Should the mod move this to 2016 Kentucky Derby please???

This thread has been split into a new 2016 thread from last year's KD discussion.

Any good idea for this year's KD???

"Good" is in the eye of the beholder, until the camera goes off as they cross the wire. But in the Gotham tomorrow (Aqueduct race #9) I will be paying particularly close attention to Shagaf, a colt from Chad Brown's barn, to see what kind he might turn out to be, in what looks like a decent and competitive but not overwhelming Grade 3 field. Brown probably doesn't even have a clear judgment on that yet; this will be only his third lifetime start. The racing cliche that applies is "could be any kind." Including a donkey. Or something special. Or not. His speed figures are light, but that was while winning by daylight with more in the tank than he was asked for. He has the pedigree to go on and up and to get 10 furlongs in two months, or more, if his little obscure maiden and allowance races were really an indication of what they hinted at visually. Pletcher's colt (Rally Cry) now entered in the Gotham was severely compromised by a trip from Hell last time out, and at least one other might be a pretty nice middle distance horse. But in my opinion, Shagaf is the only one tomorrow that would potentially be likely to stay a mile and a quarter against a typical Derby pace at Churchill.

The Gotham does indeed look like a solid betting race. There is also a 4 horse field running in Dubai tomorrow with an interesting horse Blue Creek(GB) running. Currently Nyquist and Mohaymen are the deserving Derby favorites based on their performances at the track. I will mention a few I fancy for the Derby at the moment. (in no particular order).
Mo Tom (KY) - Has developed a consistent deep closing style that is impressive, but I wonder if he is really fast enough to compete at 10 furlongs.
Battery (ON) - Lightly raced runner that seems to be improving at the right time.
Zulu (KY) - Same as above. Talented but lightly raced. Outclassed by Mohayman in FOY, but certainly could improve after his first stakes attempt.
Riker (KY) - Recently bought (partially) and has been great in recent works in South Florida. Yet to race in 2016 and will likely take the Turfway park (Battaglia/Spiral Stakes) route to the Derby.

Sunny Ridge is 7/2 on the morning line for the Gotham. He won the Withers Stakes about a month ago.
His owner and trainer are saying they may decide not to run him in the Derby even if he wins.
Because they had a disappointing experience with Smarty Jones. The undefeated filly Songbird is
1/9 on the morning line at Santa Anita's Santa Ysabel stakes. That was a surprise. I don't think I've
ever before seen a horse appear as 1/9 on a morning line. She embarrassed the rest of the field in the
La Virgenes stakes.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/05/sports/horse-racing/derby-caliber-gelding-has-connections-dreaming-of-the-preakness-instead.html?ref=sports

Songbird just crushed the field in the Santa Ysabel Stakes.
There was a staggering 1.3 million bet in the win, place, show pool.
823 thousand was bet into the show pool causing Santa Anita to eat a minus pool of `158 thousand.

Quote: lilredrooster

Songbird just crushed the field in the Santa Ysabel Stakes.
There was a staggering 1.3 million bet in the win, place, show pool.
823 thousand was bet into the show pool causing the track to eat a minus pool of `158 thousand.

There was also minus 4900 in the place pool.

But what was Songbird doing in a Grade III, anyway?

Quote: ThatDonGuy

There was also minus 4900 in the place pool.

But what was Songbird doing in a Grade III, anyway?

What was anybody doing in either the place or win pools on a filly paying $2.10, $2.10, and $2.10 WPS across the board, and how is it they have two units of US currency to rub together and slide across the counter? Why put as much as too-dallah on a win or place ticket paying the same legally required minimum as a show ticket? Is the Santa Anita grandstand choc-full of baccarat chartists, dice influencers, and telepathic roulette wheel and slot machine forecasters who are unable to read a tote board nowadays?

The remaining calendar of major preps:

March 12: Tampa Bay Derby, Tampa Bay Downs

March 19th: Rebel Stakes, Oaklawn Park

March 20th: Sunland Derby, Sunland Park

March 26th: UAE Derby, Meydan
March 26th: Louisiana Derby, Fair Grounds

April 2nd: Florida Derby, Gulfstream Park
April 2nd: Spiral Stakes, Turfway Park

April 9th: Wood Memorial, Aqueduct
April 9th: Bluegrass Stakes, Keeneland
April 9th: Santa Anita Derby, Santa Anita

April 16th: Lexington Stakes, Keeneland
April 16th: Arkansas Derby, Oaklawn Park

I did not quite win an Eclipse Award for my Derby analysis last year, but since there was some slight interest from a few people here in my pedigree calculation of the weighted average winning distance of the progeny of the sire (x2) and damsire (x1), here are my AWD figures for those that have been mentioned in this thread, along with a few others that have been in the news lately:

Battery 7.5f
Blue Creek 8.1f
Brody's Cause 7.9f
Danzig Candy 6.5f
Destin 7.7f
Exaggerator 7.3
Gift Box 7.1f
Greenpointcrusader 7.6f
Gun Runner 7.4f
Mo Tom 6.8f
Mohaymen 7.2f
Mor Spirit 7.5f
Nyquist 6.5f
Riker 6.9f
Shagaf 7.5f
Songbird 7.2f
Suddenbreakingnews 7.4f
Sunny Ridge 6.5f
Zulu 7.7f

I have some house-banked non-parimutual future wagers booked at high double-digit odds from Las Vegas casinos much earlier this year on Shagaf and Zulu. And at this point I think I'm probably willing to trade both together for a sandwich from Cantor's Deli plus a souvenir "Welcome to Las Vegas" keychain.

Pay me to take the Shagaf ticket and I'll swear I'm the original buyer.

Maybe Drawing Dead can explain to me how if the show pool was a minus pool in Songbird's race that the
2 horse paid $2.60 to show and the 10 horse paid $5.40 to show. I would have expected all of the horses
in the show pool to pay $2.10. Do some tracks have some kind of set asides for minus pools? I don't
understand it. Help.

http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=SA&raceDate=03/05/2016&cy=USA&rn=5

Quote: lilredrooster

Maybe Drawing Dead can explain to me how if the show pool was a minus pool in Songbird's race that the
2 horse paid $2.60 to show and the 10 horse paid $5.40 to show. I would have expected all of the horses
in the show pool to pay $2.10. Do some tracks have some kind of set asides for minus pools? I don't
understand it. Help.

Each horse's share of the show pool is what its bettors bet on it plus 1/3 of the amounts the horses that did not finish in the top three bet.

Here's an example: assume 6 horses.
There's 5,000,000 bet on #1 to show, and 50,000 bet on each of #2 through #6. Assume 1, 2, and 3 finished, well, 1-2-3.
#1's payout pool is 5,000,000 + 1/3 of the amounts bet on 4, 5, and 6, or a total of 5,150,000, divided among the 5,000,000 bet, so each 2 bet would get 2.06, but that is below the 2.10 minimum in California, so the track has to come up with an extra 100,000.
#2's payout pool is 50,000 + 1/3 of the amounts bet on 4, 5, and 6, or a total of 65,000, divided among the 50,000 bet, so each 2 bet would get 2.60.
#3's payout pool is the same as #2s.
#1 has a minus pool, but #2 and #3 both paid $2.60 to show.

EDIT: Didn't see TDG's reply while I was posting mine. Go with that one, it is a straighter line between the dots.^

Quote: lilredrooster

Maybe Drawing Dead can explain to me how if the show pool was a minus pool in Songbird's race that the
2 horse paid $2.60 to show and the 10 horse paid $5.40 to show. I would have expected all of the horses
in the show pool to pay $2.10. Do some tracks have some kind of set asides for minus pools? I don't
understand it. Help.

http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=SA&raceDate=03/05/2016&cy=USA&rn=5

You'll see that happening at all tracks in North America. There are some complicating intricacies to determining exact payouts, but for a rough somewhat over-simplified understanding of what will be paid: Subtract the total amount bet to 'show' on the first three finishers from the pool. Divide the remainder of that total pool made up of show wagers on all starters into thirds, and apply the takeout (15.43% in California) to each of those three shares of the pool (there are actually some more complex proportional calculations made in apportioning the takeout). and return what is left in each of those three stacks of moolah to the bettors on each of the first three finishers, respectively. In a "minus pool" condition this will routinely result in a meaningful profit for tickets on at least one or quite possibly two of the successful 'show' betting interests, while the third stack paid back to the heavily bet favorite would amount to bettors losing money on each of those winning tickets on that one. The track then must make up the difference to bring the return on those tickets up to the required minimum (usually $2.10 per $2.00 wagered in most jurisdictions).

Illustrating with an example (again over-simplified a bit from what actually occurs): We have a total of $99 dollars in the show pool at Armpit Meadows. Among the first three finishers, $80 was bet on #1, while $2 was wagered on #2, and also $2 on #3. We'll make the takeout at this fabulous race joint with its massive hundred dollar pools in Cesspool, Indiana 10% for simplicity. So subtracting $80 & $2 & $2 and splitting the $99 pool gives us 99 - 84 = 15, then 15/3 for $5. For #2 & #3 they have $2 + $5 = $7, less ten percent , or six bucks and change, to be distributed to wagers of $2.. But for horse #1 returning $5 + $80 = $85, less 10% resulting in $76 and change returned to holders of $80 of winning wagers is not so good; for them "winning" like this would become a bit expensive. So the track is required to cough up money to them at the rate of $2.10 per $2, resulting in total payments to those folks of $84 (or 40 x $2.10). The track has now paid out about $84 + $6.20 + $6.20 (leaving out precise calculations of 'breakage' or rounding and some other complications for simplicity), so The Meadows of Armpit didn't do very well on the whole deal overall, and wouldn't be able to pay the light bill if this happened constantly, but bettors on two of the three are reasonably happy for the moment at least by grumpy horseplayer standards, and fans of the third are at least not rioting and storming the back room with broken bottles and burning Racing Forms.

Quote: Sabretom2

Pay me to take the Shagaf ticket and I'll swear I'm the original buyer.

Ha! Well after his win Saturday 'my' horse sits at the lofty perch of third in the Derby qualifying points standings, and unlike most who won't even make it to the big show has done well enough that he's already virtually assured of a spot in the starting gate. So, take that, wiseguy.

Unfortunately, there is also the little detail that his Gotham win on Saturday was accomplished in somewhat plodding grinding fashion with an adjusted time more appropriate to a contest of three-legged mules. But swear to THIS Mr. Tom the 2nd: He'll absolutely keep right on going to get the mile and a quarter distance, though at this rate he'll be going on to eventually get it in a projected time of around 2:06-ish while the winner gets his picture taken and starts munching on his rose petal necklace after about 2:01 to 2:02 or so.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

There was also minus 4900 in the place pool.

But what was Songbird doing in a Grade III, anyway?

Songbird likely ran because 60k for a solid workout is hard to pass up. She was put on the lead, in the clear, and keep safe all the way home.

Quote: DrawingDead

-snip-
I did not quite win an Eclipse Award for my Derby analysis last year, but since there was some slight interest from a few people here in my pedigree calculation of the weighted average winning distance of the progeny of the sire (x2) and damsire (x1), here are my AWD figures for those that have been mentioned in this thread, along with a few others that have been in the news lately:

Battery 7.5f
Blue Creek 8.1f
Brody's Cause 7.9f
Danzig Candy 6.5f
Destin 7.7f
Exaggerator 7.3
Gift Box 7.1f
Greenpointcrusader 7.6f
Gun Runner 7.4f
Mo Tom 6.8f
Mohaymen 7.2f
Mor Spirit 7.5f
Nyquist 6.5f
Riker 6.9f
Shagaf 7.5f
Songbird 7.2f
Suddenbreakingnews 7.4f
Sunny Ridge 6.5f
Zulu 7.7f

I have some house-banked non-parimutual future wagers booked at high double-digit odds from Las Vegas casinos much earlier this year on Shagaf and Zulu. And at this point I think I'm probably willing to trade both together for a sandwich from Cantor's Deli plus a souvenir "Welcome to Las Vegas" keychain.

Editing mine.

Thanks for those AWDs. Interesting stuff. Nyquist is surprisingly (to me at least) low. He is proven @ 8.5 furlongs (2 times) but that last 1.5 furlong may be to much for him. I also like Zulu and was glad they chose to race against Mohaymen. It was a solid learning experience. He was a little green, reluctant to load, but ran a decent 2nd. The Florida Derby is shaping up nicely. Champion 2yo vs K. Derby "favorite" (plus a couple of others)... I see you included Songbird, but based on the "talk" from ownership/trainer she will not be running for the Roses. Maybe she will do a R. Alexander, win the Oaks first then maybe enter the Preakness? Shagaf won, and there is nothing wrong with winning and earning enough points to make the gate. Blue Creek lost. Bring on The TBay Derby.

In other recent news, the Sunland Park Derby (and Oaks) will not be run this year and points will not be earned for the K. Derby.

Thanks for that info Drawing Dead and ThatDonGuy. That info suggests a strategy that I never knew about.
If you had bet on a horse other than Songbird to show in that race and he does show you would get a fair payout even if Songbird
was in the money. But if Songbird was out of the money then you would get a gigantic payout. Unless I'm
still not understanding but I think I am. Just as an aside West Virginia requires a minimum $2.20 payout on any show bet.
Not that I'm planning to start a new career as a show plunger. But hey, the profit is double if your on the monster
horse. I'll pass.

On the list of remaining preps I posted earlier, I left out the San Felipe. Corrected list below:

Quote: DrawingDead

...<SNIP>,,,

The remaining calendar of major preps:

March 12: Tampa Bay Derby, Tampa Bay Downs
March 12: San Felipe Stakes, Santa Anita

March 19th: Rebel Stakes, Oaklawn Park

March 20th: Sunland Derby, Sunland Park CANCELLED

March 26th: UAE Derby, Meydan
March 26th: Louisiana Derby, Fair Grounds

April 2nd: Florida Derby, Gulfstream Park
April 2nd: Spiral Stakes, Turfway Park

April 9th: Wood Memorial, Aqueduct
April 9th: Bluegrass Stakes, Keeneland
April 9th: Santa Anita Derby, Santa Anita

April 16th: Lexington Stakes, Keeneland
April 16th: Arkansas Derby, Oaklawn Park

...<SNIP>...

Quote: lilredrooster

...But if Songbird was out of the money then you would get a gigantic payout. Unless I'm...

You've got it right.

Quote: Keeneone

Nyquist is surprisingly (to me at least) low.

A few words about that. The AWD figure I got for Nyquist should probably come with an asterisk.

He's by Uncle Mo, who is a very new freshman (1st crop to race) sire. These are the least reliable circumstances for using data of the progeny, since it involves a small sample size, and also many new stallions will intentionally be bred to some extra precocious types in order to win early (and therefore short) while they are trying to establish a market for his stud services. So it isn't as cut and dried as others, and more judgement is involved.

Depending on what one chooses to do with this you could tweak it to get as high as 6.7f in the way I go about it, and someone else who isn't looking at either the sire of the dam or the sire's sire (Indian Charlie isn't very stout at 6.6f) could end up as high as 6.9f based solely on the sparse data from Uncle Mo's offspring to date. In these circumstances (1st & 2nd crop sires) I make an adjustment to reduce the weighting of the sire to 1x, same as the sire of the dam (or sometimes down to zero weight if there's no meaningful data), and also include the sire of the sire at 1x weighting. But the whole exercise does become somewhat more "iffy" under these circumstances no matter what methodology you choose.

I don't like him at a mile and a quarter no matter which way I massage the data, but that probably means you should go ahead and shower him with roses right now.

Quote: lilredrooster

Thanks for that info Drawing Dead and ThatDonGuy. That info suggests a strategy that I never knew about.
If you had bet on a horse other than Songbird to show in that race and he does show you would get a fair payout even if Songbird
was in the money. But if Songbird was out of the money then you would get a gigantic payout.

This happens every now and then; it's usually a result of something called "bridge jumping," where a small number of people bet a lot on a particular horse to show.

Here is a Daily Racing Form article about it from 2002. Note that the first two horses in the race mentioned paid more to show than to place (no, they don't move the money around to make the place payout at least as high as the show, although with computers doing all of the calculations now, it wouldn't be that hard to implement); in fact, it's quite possible in a situation like this for the winner to pay more to show than to win.

Since they are completely independent wagering pools, all sorts of anomalies can and do occur. Which is especially likely on big days with a lot of infrequent racegoers creating huge pools. Even with some tickets on a heavy favorite:

Quote: DrawingDead

A few words about that. The AWD figure I got for Nyquist should probably come with an asterisk.
-snip-

-Editing mine-

Thanks, that makes a lot of sense. Younger sires (like Uncle Mo) just won't have a large pool of runners yet, particularly at the longer distances.
----------

Anyone have opinions on longer odds runners (like 70-1+ in the futures) on the west coast right now? I only have one small wager on Frank Conversation. Apparently they are actually planning on shipping to Dubai to run his next race. If he does ship out I consider that wager toast. California-->Dubai-->Kentucky Derby is wildly unconventional. In the San Felipe: I Will Score, Uncle Lino, Cupid. Other runners: Malibu Sunset, Ralis, Denman's Call.
----------

Pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future wager will also be open this weekend.

Drawing Dead said "What was anybody doing in either the place or win pools on a filly paying $2.10, $2.10, and $2.10 WPS across the board."


I think there may be many very occasional racegoers who incorrectly believe that place means coming in second
and show means coming in third.
And I think it may be something that can be taken advantage of (but not in a huge way as in the Songbird race)
on days that draw huge crowds to racing.

Right or Wrong?

Well, my interpretation of that is nothing but an opinion, and yes I've got no doubt at all that some bet their money while they 'think' (or guess) that might be how it works. I've seen and heard exactly that. So called 'stoopers' scooping up discarded tickets make their meager little living on that and similar stuff. But I find that many people bet money believing all kinds of amazing things for all sorts of truly astounding 'reasons' so I wouldn't choose to be quite so specific about that at a venue that routinely does eight to ten million every Saturday, where a drunk with a spare Benjamin or a wandering gaggle of Twinkies in funny hats have no individual effect.

In general it is remarkable how wise the overall market, in the form of the tote board, eventually is in the aggregate over time on average, compared to just about any clever and well informed individual. But. In assigning individual reasons within the crowd, besides accumulating more than my sensible share of time rubbing elbows with racetrack degenerates, spending a lot of time at a lot of poker tables and in a lot of casinos has taught me that it is very often a mistake to assume individual rationality or to give just about any sort of gambler credit for doing much at all in the way of actual thinking or paying attention before acting. Saying it might not exactly get me voted most popular kid in the class on a forum like this, but there you go. My verdict on the "Right or Wrong?" question posed on that would be: "No, neither." Not false, but also not nearly sufficient.

Quote: lilredrooster

Drawing Dead said "What was anybody doing in either the place or win pools on a filly paying $2.10, $2.10, and $2.10 WPS across the board."


I think there may be many very occasional racegoers who incorrectly believe that place means coming in second
and show means coming in third.
And I think it may be something that can be taken advantage of (but not in a huge way as in the Songbird race)
on days that draw huge crowds to racing.

Right or Wrong?

I've got my own subscriptions for my own information, but for others, is there any free source of past performances available for Churchill Downs' parimutual Kentucky Derby Future Wager this year? As Keeneone said, Pool 3 is open this weekend Friday to Sunday, and I haven't noticed a link to a free online product from someone like Brisnet that was available in the past. I'm thinking the link is probably around somewhere and I just haven't noticed it as I do my own thing using my data sources.

Quote: DrawingDead

I've got my own subscriptions for my own information, but for others, is there any free source of past performances available for Churchill Downs' parimutual Kentucky Derby Future Wager this year? As Keeneone said, Pool 3 is open this weekend Friday to Sunday, and I haven't noticed a link to a free online product from someone like Brisnet that was available in the past. I'm thinking the link is probably around somewhere and I just haven't noticed it as I do my own thing using my data sources.

I am not aware of any current free pps for the Derby Pools.
----------

Santa Anita is having a big Saturday this weekend. The card reminds me of another reason I enjoy watching the 2yo and 3yo races. A number of these Derby hopefuls will return for their 4yo season (and sometimes even older). Bolo is running in the Frank Kilroe and Cyrus Alexander is running in the Santa Anita Handicap to name a few mentioned in the 2015 thread.
----------

I am hoping Riker performs well in the TB Derby (finishing 1st-->4th to earn some more Derby points). I was a little surprised to see him entered into the field (thought he might run @ Turfway Sat.). If he runs to his past style (like 2015) he will likely be on or near the lead in this race. 1st time out off a long layoff on the front end and he could certainly come up short needing the race. We shall see...

Not exactly pps, in some ways better but no speed figures, but charts are free on equibase.com

At Tampa, I'm looking for it to be won from off the pace. Partly due to how the main track surface there usually tends to play, and partly due to an opinion about the likely race shape.

Destin won pressing the pace with a nice final time and Danzig Candy won on the front end all the way around. I preferred Destin's win mostly because his final time and Santa Anita's main track seemed "off" after a lot of rain a few days earlier. Riker ran a pretty bad race and Brody's cause was a little better down the stretch. I guess both may head to the Blue Grass Stakes or maybe the Spiral for Riker. Both certainly looked like they needed a race after a 5 month layoffs.

Positive spin for my barn after two rough weekends in the preps:
Maybe Destin's back to back wins flatter the Louisiana runners that beat him in the Lecomte (Mo Tom).
Honest answer:
Destin's back to back wins flatter Destin and his improving form.
----------

Does anyone think "all others" is worth a look in the 3rd KD pool? (currently 12-1)
Next up: Rebel Stakes @ Oaklawn

Better to be lucky than good? That race was not run as I was expecting. Neither did my horse. I was just plain wrong. I had Destin across the board, but expecting something different than the kind of (successful) trip he got. In track record time. But I get zero brownie points for horseplaying prowess, and if there was any justice in the racing world I should've lost my money. There isn't; I don't plan to give it back. Sue me.

Congrats on the Destin win. The $2 double with Tepin was also a very nice $17.40 (for those who had it).
I am going to go out on a limb...
His assigned Beyer in the TB Derby will be the highest yet for any of the Derby hopefuls.

Mr. Drawing Dead: Thank you for answering my question. Since you were so kind to do so I would like to impose upon you with another question in order to solicit your opinion which I regard as being an expert opinion based upon the depth of knowledge about horse racing that you continually show.


Being by nature a suspicious person I have always questioned the value and legitimacy of speed figures both
Beyer's and those from Equibase. The reason: In comparing the average (or par) times of races at the same
level at the same track to final times of today's races they then assign a track variant (relative slowness or
fastness of the track) from which each horse 's speed figure is then derived. The flaw in my opinion: To do
this they are using data from only 9 or 10 races, however many the track had on its card. Come on: 9 races
or what a mathematician would call trials or resolutions!!! Gee whiz, when pro blackjack players test a strategy
against a new rule change they will run a computer simulation that gives results based on one BILLION hands.
This is relatively easy with today's powerful computers. So blackjack experts need a billion hands to come to
a conclusion but speed figure sellers only need 9 or 10? I have a sneaking suspicion that if a mathematician
were to analyze the way speed figures are calculated that he would call it voodoo mathematics. In writing this
and asking this question I acknowledge the fact that I may be wrong or missing something. Thanks for your
help if you are willing to answer this question for me. If you are not or don't have time that's fine, I totally
can understand that. I also realize that there has to be some way to account for the drastically different
final times at different tracks. If I remember correctly Golden Gate use to have 15,000 claimers running
6 furlongs at 1:08 and change more than good enough to win stakes races as we move eastward.
So it has to be in some way accounted for. But speed figures as they now are: I just don't know.

I agree with you about 63.472%. But definitely not more than 64.192% after the mid-afternoon renovation break when the discussion track was harrowed but insufficiently watered by the grounds crew.

You can just call me Dead, if you like. And I will be exactly that before trying to re-play the evolution and regurgitate in excruciating detail all the relevant sagging bookshelves on it here in message board format, so I won't be deep sea diving in that ocean. Two full shelves not far from my elbow right now are hardbound Beyer on Speed, Quinn on Beyer, Beyer on Ludes, Brohamer on Sartin on Quin on Beyer on a Pedestal With A Partridge in a Pear Tree.... I may have just now revised some of those book titles slightly, but not the author names in case you want to follow the published trail of the topic. You've heard the name Beyer? Start there, all his books are still in print, and from that jumping off point you'll find enough material to occupy many months, if you like. But I don't want to just brush your thoughts off with a "go read" and leave it totally at that.

While I happen to think a good bit of your speculative criticism of speed figures is well founded, I also think it may have carried the skeptical critique a bit far. If someone somewhere really fervently started to imagine that an analogy to something like a precise statistical analysis of the effect of variance on the very tiny presumed underlying fractional edge or loss occurring in methods for card games or video poker play is a highly releveant cousin to this, then one has apparently had the misfortune to hang out overmuch with some especially foolish math-THEMED (but judgment deprived) geeks who need to get out more and contemplate the vast range of imprecise decisions that a human being continually makes and MUST make in the course of living in the world daily, if they are to avoid becoming a hazard to themselves and others, or for that matter tie their shoes without assistance. But a skeptical eye is called for when using them, as they are representations in numeric form that are at best roughly estimating athletic performance by living animals. They are useful, and do have some degree of predictive value. If you want to dive into that statement, I really do suggest exploring on your own the many volumes (supplemented with a 40 year indoor blizzard of academic papers) published on the topic, beginning in the early 1970s. I'd rather use the time for THAT to scrub behind the fridge and vacuum the heating ducts than re-invent that whole wheel here.

But having said they are useful, that's not the same thing as consistently accurate and equally so in all circumstances, and they aren't. And any use of them that imputes an illusion of precision to them is a gross misuse of the tool, as well as just plain foolish. I could expand on your criticism and add to it quite a bit. Consider the effect of trip, and pace for example, on final time. And what about bias across the surface at a given time? Aqueduct is sometimes notorious for getting a "golden rail" that acts like a rocket sled for inside speed at times, while for decades the old Hollywood Park main track had an infamous "dead rail" that had an effect similar to running in a tar pit for those riders incompetent and unobservant enough to tuck their mounts in near it (as many still did) while those taken out to mid track just glided along relatively effortlessly. It is a multi-variant living analog environment, making it impossible to parse out the exact role of general overall surface condition with any great degree of precision in arriving at the quantitative endpoint of digital final time.

Leaving raw times un-adjusted is a decision to wear a blindfold on one eye and a pink lens on the other, because the sight of that grey squishy stuff over there induces headaches, so pretending or ignoring is just easier. But making good quality figures (I use to do my own for myself years ago before all the published stuff that exists now) properly involves more than was described. Purely mechanistic semi-automated figures will tend to be nearly as useful as slot machine seduction and dice influencing schemes. Done well, par times SHOULD be only a starting point in a process of arriving at variants to adjust raw times. The individual animals and their specific history at the particular point in their life-cycle is considered, among other things, and not just for the one crossing the wire first but for all or nearly all the 100+ running at all the points of call with their many internal fractional splits, and contextual judgments are made, if one is doing a real quality job of it. They will work better or less well in some circumstances than others for comparing changes in conditions and venues. Deciding which is what and when and and how much utility a figure does or doesn't have involves judgment rooted in experience. It isn't too unusual for a set of figures applied to a day's racecard to be reasonably good, and then totally not, becoming utter crap after, say, 2:32 pm, when humidity and wind conditions changed. It is all about estimating probabilities in conditions of incomplete and uncertain information, and that's not just for brewing speed figures.

That's a lot a words of "on the one hand, and the other hand" but before I shut up on it I do want to include one less mealy-mouthed straightforward unqualified thing about speed figures. A few things everyone needs to teach the little ones before they are old enough to box an exacta are: Don't squat upstream from where you drink, don't eat yellow snow, don't p*ss into the wind, and for freakin' Dogsakes don't pay the slightest bit of attention to any supposed speed figures based on final times of races on turf; to the extent they can sometimes be useful, speed figures are appropriate for dirt racing only.

Quote: lilredrooster

Mr. Drawing Dead: Thank you for answering my question. Since you were so kind to do so I would like to impose upon you with another question in order to solicit your opinion which I regard as being an expert opinion based upon the depth of knowledge about horse racing that you continually show.


Being by nature a suspicious person I have always questioned the value and legitimacy of speed figures both
Beyer's and those from Equibase. The reason: In comparing the average (or par) times of races at the same
level at the same track to final times of today's races they then assign a track variant (relative slowness or
fastness of the track) from which each horse 's speed figure is then derived. The flaw in my opinion: To do
this they are using data from only 9 or 10 races, however many the track had on its card. Come on: 9 races
or what a mathematician would call trials or resolutions!!! Gee whiz, when pro blackjack players test a strategy
against a new rule change they will run a computer simulation that gives results based on one BILLION hands.
This is relatively easy with today's powerful computers. So blackjack experts need a billion hands to come to
a conclusion but speed figure sellers only need 9 or 10? I have a sneaking suspicion that if a mathematician
were to analyze the way speed figures are calculated that he would call it voodoo mathematics. In writing this
and asking this question I acknowledge the fact that I may be wrong or missing something. Thanks for your
help if you are willing to answer this question for me. If you are not or don't have time that's fine, I totally
can understand that. I also realize that there has to be some way to account for the drastically different
final times at different tracks. If I remember correctly Golden Gate use to have 15,000 claimers running
6 furlongs at 1:08 and change more than good enough to win stakes races as we move eastward.
So it has to be in some way accounted for. But speed figures as they now are: I just don't know.

Thanks Dead. Relevant to what we were talking about you pointed that Destin set the track record for Tampa Bay Downs at this distance.
He beat Outwork by one length which means Outwork was only about .2 seconds off the record himself.
Hmmm. Two 3 year olds in the same race and one sets the track record and one almost equals it.
I'm aware Tampa is not in the same league as Churchill or Saratoga but still.
I don't think I have the brain power to figure out the relative importance of this.

Quote: lilredrooster

Thanks Dead. Relevant to what we were talking about you pointed that Destin set the track record for Tampa Bay Downs at this distance.
He beat Outwork by one length which means Outwork was only about .2 seconds off the record himself.
Hmmm. Two 3 year olds in the same race and one sets the track record and one almost equals it.
I'm aware Tampa is not in the same league as Churchill or Saratoga but still.
I don't think I have the brain power to figure out the relative importance of this.

I'm positively sure you've got more than enough to spare. Maybe not enough sleep if you're responding to me at this hour, but I think you kid if you pretend you can't crush this one over the left field wall. Same thing occurred to me as soon as I heard the announcement "track record time."

A) What were formerly two relatively immature young adolescent animals which their human connections may hope to develop into something that can eventually compete outside of 3 y/o age restricted Grade 2 company at a second tier track, suddenly and miraculously became epic superhorses capable of running rings around the very best fully mature late four year old and five year old veteran Grade 1 racehorses, and by coincidence it just happens that two of them went through this same astounding transformation at the same instant in the same race;

-or-

B) They actually did not magically go from the equivalent of two pimply faced 17 year-old high school stars to suddenly waking up on Saturday as a pair of 30 year-old big-league all-stars, but instead the track superintendent's folks went out with their equipment and watered and rolled it and had their track tight as hell when they ran their big race of the whole year at Tampa, and a large adjustment or other allowance in some form needs to be made when looking at that.

Pick one.


EDIT to add: Andy Beyer just put up his number for Destin's TAM Derby race this morning: a 100 for his time of 1:42.82 for 8.5 furlongs. And at Santa Anita Danzig Candy's time of 1:43.04 in the San Felipe at the same 1-1/16 mi. distance got an identical Beyer figure of 100. And now good night, or morning, or something.

Quote: DrawingDead

-snip-
EDIT to add: Andy Beyer just put up his number for Destin's TAM Derby race this morning: a 100 for his time of 1:42.82 for 8.5 furlongs. And at Santa Anita Danzig Candy's time of 1:43.04 in the San Felipe at the same 1-1/16 mi. distance got an identical Beyer figure of 100. And now good night, or morning, or something.

-editing mine-

Thanks for the detailed explanations, it is very interesting reading.
----------

3rd pool Kentucky Derby Future wager now closed:
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/future-wager/derby-pool-3
Mohaymen favored @ 7/2. Field @ 5/1.
At 12/1 yesterday I was about to plunk down a little money on "all others", but suspected it might come down. It dropped all day, so I did not wager in this pool.
----------

DD, if you please...Do these prospects show any potential in their AWDs?
Cupid (Rebel prospect)
Flexibility (Wood Memorial/Blue Grass prospect)
Siding Spring (Rebel prospect)
Cherry Wine (Rebel prospect)

Good that you edit down when quoting some of mine, so the server for the site doesn't suffer a seizure from character overload.

Quote: Keeneone

...<SNIP>...

DD, if you please...Do these prospects show any potential in their AWDs?
Cupid (Rebel prospect)
Flexibility (Wood Memorial/Blue Grass prospect)
Siding Spring (Rebel prospect)
Cherry Wine (Rebel prospect)

I get:

• 7.3f Cherry Wine* (Paddy O'Prado [El Prado] - Unbridled's Song)
  
  
• 7.2f Cupid (Tapit - Beau Genius)
  
  
• 7.1f Flexibility (Bluegrass Cat - Vindication)
  
  
• 6.9f Siding Spring* (Warrior's Reward [Medaglia d'Oro] - Peace Rules)

*NOTE RE: Cherry Wine & Siding Spring - Both Paddy O'Prado & Warrior's Reward are young sires with limited direct data on their progeny. My calculation of the pedigree AWD used a diminished weighting of the sire & was supplemented with a partial weighting of data on the progeny of the paternal grandsire.

I should also note that the pedigree of Cherry Wine is a bit grassy, with significant turf influence. That's not a bad thing for the main track surface at Churchill, if he ends up there.

Thanks DD. I almost bet on Cherry Wine before the Fountain Of Youth @ Gulfstream but he did not enter. I think he may have spiked a temp or something. He is interesting with the turf influence but he must do well in his next to get some Derby points.
Flexibility already has 15 Derby points and has run some solid races (notably against Moyhaymen). His last was uninspiring (Withers), but he has been given a little time off for his next start. Training good and available @ around 85/1 in the futures.

Quote: Keeneone

Thanks DD. I almost bet on Cherry Wine before the Fountain Of Youth @ Gulfstream but he did not enter. I think he may have spiked a temp or something. He is interesting with the turf influence but he must do well in his next to get some Derby points.

...<SNIP>...

If he's fit and healthy but doesn't end up making it into this, pretty good chance we'll see him running in something at Churchill that weekend. Trained by Dale Romans, a Louisville native and that's his home base.

RE: Rebel Stakes @OP (10th race - 4:06 PDT)

I have no idea. So I will be watching it closely, but won't be betting it.

And no, as a matter of fact, I do not expect this to win an award for most helpful post of the year.

Yup, throw a dart and hope for the best. Hard to really make a strong case for any of the runners. Weather forecast looks good for race day (cool and clear). High weights giving 7 lbs to many (Suddenbreakingnews, Discreetness), shippers coming in from all over (Cupid, Cherry Wine, Ralis), long layoff runner (Ralis), Poor posts outside (Cherry Wine, Suddenbreakingnews), the Baffert factor (Cupid)...

I will make a minor case for Siding Spring. 2nd race off long layoff, 2nd over the track (5th in Southwest), showed speed with the lead into the stretch (losing by ~6 lengths), better post position this time(5), and training nicely since last (3 works). He needs to show up here or he may quickly return to the turf.

What's the o/u for starters from the Pletcher Equine Industrial Complex this year? As low as 2.5-ish in the gate on May 7th, or does he have three or four more in the back of the barn he hasn't gotten around to yet? Anything < 3 seems like kind of a slow year for La Machine de Cheval d'Todd.

Quote: DrawingDead

What's the o/u for starters from the Pletcher Equine Industrial Complex this year? As low as 2.5-ish in the gate on May 7th, or does he have three or four more in the back of the barn he hasn't gotten around to yet? Anything < 3 seems like kind of a slow year for La Machine de Cheval d'Todd.

Not only does he seem to have less "visible" 3yos this season, but many are also lightly raced. Some have assumed a "change" in his approach to the Triple Crown... He has Saratoga Mischief that recently burned some cash @ Parx. He is sending Gettysburg (with others) to N.Mexico w/ J Castellano in tow. No derby points but they must have hope for Gettysburg.
I would still take the over (2.5) for the PEIC making the gate at Churchill Downs for the Derby.
What does @NotTheToddster have to say about it?

Quote: Keeneone

Not only does he seem to have less "visible" 3yos this season, but many are also lightly raced. Some have assumed a "change" in his approach to the Triple Crown... He has Saratoga Mischief that recently burned some cash @ Parx. He is sending Gettysburg (with others) to N.Mexico w/ J Castellano in tow. No derby points but they must have hope for Gettysburg.
I would still take the over (2.5) for the PEIC making the gate at Churchill Downs for the Derby.
What does @NotTheToddster have to say about it?

Well, N.T. Toddster is still at large and still frisky...

Quote: @NotTheToddster

T.A. Pletcher ‏@NotTheToddster Mar 12
T.A. Pletcher Retweeted joe f
Already own a track there.

joe f @b1joe @NotTheToddster
You should buy a house in Tampa

3 retweets 21 likes Reply Retweet 3 Like 21

...but I see no tip sheet for handicapping the o/u.

Shipping anything with "Saratoga" in the name into PARX is just wrong.

Here are 2 different rankings of 3 year olds. The 1st is by Bloodhorse as of 3/8. The 2nd is by Equibase of just males by speed figures as of 3/18.
It surprised me that Nyquist wasn't on the Equibase ranking but I don't have access to all the speed figures.
It looks like Songbird is going to the Oaks, not the Derby which is a little bit disappointing. But according to Equibase her top speed figure is 105 short of the colts.
The numbers next to the horses on the Bloodhorse ranking are the no. of 1st place votes and then the no. of points in an NTRA poll.
This is what the Windsor Star said of Nyquist's speed in the San Vincente: "Nyquist took on a challenge from Sheikh of Sheiks and Exaggerator was never headed and won under a hand ride from jockey Mario Guttierez in 1:20.71, the 2nd fastest finish since the race was lengthened to 7 furlongs in 1955." In Nyquist's 1st race a 5 furlong maiden special he was only .06 seconds off the track record at Santa Anita and he did the first quarter in under 22 seconds. But according to Dead's earlier post his bloodline does not indicate stamina. Interestingly, re our earlier discussion of Destin; Equibase gave him a figure of 110, significantly higher than Beyer's 100. Equibase doesn't say so but I'm assuming that these are the highest figures the horses have ever posted which for Destin would be his last race.


1, Mohaymen (23) - 420
2, Nyquist (13) - 400
3, Mor Spirit (20 - 263
4, Songbird (6) - 240
5, Shagaf - 171
6, Exaggerator - 168
7, Gun Runner - 142
8, Suddenbreakingnews - 106
9, Mo Tom - 92
10, Zulu - 86




1. Mohaymen - 115
2. Zulu 111
3. Destin 110
4. Shaqaf 110
5. Danzing Candy 110
6. J.R.'s Holiday 109
7. Don't Be So Salty 108
8. Mor Spirit 108
9. Sudden Breaking News 108
10. Laoban 108

The Asmussen entry in the Rebel is starting to tempt me. Probably a hazardous side-effect of squinting at it too much. But Keeneone would like the look of them; he'll know what I mean by that. Hint: both by Tapit, and carrying a certain distinctive Tapit feature.

This is probably the 2nd worst day of the year to try to use a restroom at a Las Vegas book. But if the urinal pace quits in the stretch and lugs out, it might be possible. Morning line: 18/1 to make it to a plumbing fixture.

Quote: lilredrooster

...<SNIP>...

...Equibase gave him a figure of 110, significantly higher than Beyer's 100....

...<SNIP>...

That isn't how I'd look at them. More on that later.

[Restated since the site won't allow adding to the post above through an edit.]

Quote: lilredrooster

...<SNIP>...

...Equibase gave him a figure of 110, significantly higher than Beyer's 100....

...<SNIP>...

That isn't how I'd look at them. More on that later.

EDIT/REPOST: And now, this is later.

1. Those numbers are not comparable because they are different scales which have nothing to do with each other. It is only useful to compare figures using the same methodology and scale. To say the Equibase figure is "significantly higher" because it is "110" vs. a "100" in an entirely different measuring method is similar to saying that someone who is 6 feet tall is a puny little runt compared to someone measured at 160 centimeters, because "a hundred and sixty" is a much bigger number than "six." In fact it so happens that other things being equal (which they are not) an Equibase number of 110 would usually imply a horse ran slightly SLOWER according to Equibase than the FASTER number of 100 from Beyer. I'm not about to try to go into deconstructing each of them in detail to explain that, unless someone is prepared to pay me appropriately to do so, but just understand that fundamentally you're comparing unlike things and using different languages and units of measure and instruments in doing so.

2. While some others (notably Beyer as the most well known) employ a national team of people to make judgments to weigh the relative significance of a wide range of specific circumstances when arriving at a figure, the Equibase supposed "speed figures" by contrast are completely automated. They feed the purely numerical data they they already have in their industry record keeping database into a computer program they've written to generate their number. And nothing else. Which to me makes it complete crap, though opinions on the alleged value of doing that will vary. One thing about it that's certain, is that it is dirt cheap to do that, as in virtually zero cost for them to spit out, since they only have to write the program once and already have the raw data for other purposes. But if you decide you feel there is some value to be had in a 100% automated mechanism to generate totally judgment-free figures (which I would refer to as willfully premeditated 'brain death') understand that those numbers are still not intended by their creators to be considered equivalent or interchangeable.

Here's some of the same, but briefly stated in sunny language without my critical opinion:

Quote: Equinometry

Beyer Speed Figures are calculated by a team of horseplayers scattered across the United States.

Quote: Equinometry

Equibase Speed Figures were created by Equibase using a time-tested algorithm that takes subjectivity out of the process by allowing the computer to objectively assign the Speed Figures based on the data at hand.

Quote: Equinometry

From a sample of over 200 races I found there is about 5 points between Beyer and BRIS and 6 points between BRIS and Equibase. So for example a 100 Beyer would, on average, equal a 105 BRIS and a 111 Equibase.

http://www.equinometry.com/2013/04/28/speed-figures/#more-1969

[While I quoted and linked to that as a good overview IMO, unfortunately the author of the otherwise helpful descriptive piece then steps off a cliff & goes on to suggest that one could simply add or subtract a static number (i.e. 11 points between EQB & BSF) to make one into the other. There's a boatload of things wrong with that, and I would NOT do that. Otherwise, I think those who are new to the topic, and who want a very broad picture but don't want to invest much time digging into the details of the problem of time/speed, would probably find that page worth the quick read.]

AWD's for the pedigrees of those that hit the board:

#4 - Cupid 7.2f

#10 - Whitmore 7.5f

#1 - Creator 7.8f

Beyer has given Cupid a 95 in winning the Rebel. I think this may turn out to be a productive race, and not necessarily just for the winner as some of these adolescent colts continue to develop. I haven't dug into it enough on trip & pace & in relation to other quality two turn races on the card that afternoon to arrive at a definite settled opinion, but at first glance that BSF looks a little low to me. He's given the Azeri, a Grade 2 for more mature fillies and mares, an 89. The Grade 3 Razorback for mature stakes males was given a 92. Both were at the same distance and run within ninety minutes of the Rebel with no obvious change in conditions at the track, and both those figures are on the light side for the fully mature graded stakes competitors such as Untapable (2nd in the Azeri by a hard fought neck) and Upstart (1st in the Razorback by a decisive length).

Rebel chart

Azeri chart



Razorback chart