Edit: what happens if they lose by 3? Do ties reduce to next level at William hill or just push or lose?
Quote: Pinit2winitill have 3 with az/cinci. I took your 7 picks for 5 i cannot remember if cards were +3 or +3.5. It was at william hill. Debating a hedge if Giants cover. 5 to win 500 for me or i could hedge seahawks for 250 guarenteed
Edit: what happens if they lose by 3? Do ties reduce to next level at William hill or just push or lose?
DO NOT HEDGE.
It had to have been for +3.5 if you were playing the half-point card.
Edit.... yeah i F'd that one up. i see now the "mobile parlay card"
BS.Quote: teddysDO NOT HEDGE.
Quote: WizardTitans +5.5 was a huge card killer for me, putting me at 3-1 on games resolved so far. If Bears +7.5 and Minn +3.5 cover, which are looking good, I'll have two live cards hinging on Ariz +3.5.
SEA by 3 for best results. I have my seahawks cap on.
Quote: djatcSEA by 3 for best results. I have my seahawks cap on.
Depends on who's defining "best". I have AZ moneyline. But I'd be happy enough with SEA by 2. Safety!!...lol.
Quote: Wizard19-0 Cards as of this writing! Hope you all rode my coattails this week.
DID YOU HEDGE DONT LIE
Quote: djatcDID YOU HEDGE DONT LIE
No!!!
WIZARD HUBRISQuote: Wizard19-0 Cards as of this writing! Hope you all rode my coattails this week.
Edit: Nice win.
Edit" Thanks Wiz!!
Underdog | Favorite | Market on Underdog |
---|---|---|
Ten +2.5 | Jax | 3 (-120) |
Det +1.5 | Oak | 1 |
Dal +0.5 | Mia | PK |
Indy +5.5 | Atl | 5.5 |
StL +1.5 | Bal | 2.5 (EV) |
Hou +1.5 | NYJ | -1 |
GB +0.5 | Min | 1 |
TB +5.5 | Phil | 5.5 |
Den +0.5 | Chic | 1 |
Cin +4.5 | Ariz | 5 |
SF +12.5 | Sea | 12.5 |
SD +3.5 | KC | 3 (EV) |
Buff +7.5 | NE | 7 (-105) |
At this early point (Thursday 3:30 PM) there isn't much there. In fact, here is what little there is:
Pick | Basis Points |
---|---|
Jax -2.5 | 8 |
SD +3.5 | 14 |
Buff +7.5 | 12 |
Jax -2.5 is today too. Remember you need to get to 53 basis points to break even.
Maybe with some line movements we'll get to 53 but it may also be one of those weeks to sit out.
Quote: Pinit2winitAt which point spread does Cinci over AZ become a good play?
If Cinci falls to a 3.5 point underdog in the market getting 4.5 points would be a good play, worth 17 basis points. If they only to fall to 4 they would still be worth 10 basis points, which might make for a good filler if you have other more solid picks.
Quote: WizardReady for week 11! Here is the William Hill Card.
Underdog Favorite Market on Underdog Ten +2.5 Jax 3 (-120) Det +1.5 Oak 1 Dal +0.5 Mia PK Indy +5.5 Atl 5.5 StL +1.5 Bal 2.5 (EV) Hou +1.5 NYJ -1 GB +0.5 Min 1 TB +5.5 Phil 5.5 Den +0.5 Chic 1 Cin +4.5 Ariz 5 SF +12.5 Sea 12.5 SD +3.5 KC 3 (EV) Buff +7.5 NE 7 (-105)
Thanks wizard. Looks like you left off one game. Washington @ Carolina.
Quote: z2newtonThanks wizard. Looks like you left off one game. Washington @ Carolina.
It wasn't on the card. Maybe it was circled at the time of printing.
Quote: WizardIt wasn't on the card. Maybe it was circled at the time of printing.
Too bad. Carolina is at -7. Looks like it has been most of the week.
Underdog | Favorite | Market on Underdog |
---|---|---|
Ten +2.5 | Jax | 0 |
Det +1.5 | Oak | -1 |
Dal +0.5 | Mia | -1 |
Indy +5.5 | Atl | 5 |
StL +1.5 | Bal | 2.5 (-105) |
Hou +1.5 | NYJ | 3 (+105) |
GB +0.5 | Min | 1 |
TB +5.5 | Phil | 5.5 |
Den +0.5 | Chic | -1 |
Cin +4.5 | Ariz | 4.5 |
SF +12.5 | Sea | 12.5 |
SD +3.5 | KC | 3 (+105) |
Buff +7.5 | NE | 7 (-115) |
Not a very good week. I love NYJ -1.5 with 29 basis points. Big line movement on that game. WH may take if off the cards. Here are my picks:
Pick | Basis Points |
---|---|
Det +1.5 | 12 |
Bal -1.5 | 8 |
NYJ -1.5 | 29 |
Buff +7.5 | 9 |
I think I'll just bet these four this week. Normally I don't like the pick-4 cards but this will be one of those exceptions.
Edit: damn weekend shift... by the time I read this it's already 3.5 jets +.5 lions -2.5 ravens.... looks like I'm sitting with the bets I already have. Good luck to you though! !
Quote: Pinit2winitYou lIke a 4 team or straight bet on jets more?
I never make straight bets against the spread.
No issues with Jets -1.5 although the cards had the usual delay for approval.
Peppermill had Lions +2.5 but the Chargers are +3 since it is not a true half-point card.
Quote: z2newtonSo here is a question I hope someone can answer (Wizard?). How does the number of games per week affect your chance of success if any?
The more games to choose from the better.
Week 12 is not looking good. I assume the Thanksgiving games will be on the card but so much of the value is in waiting until Saturday on the line movements.
Did anybody make anything in week 11? 4 of the 5 plays I gave you guys won.
Quote: WizardThe more games to choose from the better.
Week 12 is not looking good. I assume the Thanksgiving games will be on the card but so much of the value is in waiting until Saturday on the line movements.
Did anybody make anything in week 11? 4 of the 5 plays I gave you guys won.
I considered betting saturday night but it didn't look very appealing so I stayed put. There were a couple of good line moves by sunday morning but I didn't get up in time to do anything.
We had one 5 team hit, but barley made anything. A measly +$350 profit for week 11 - $15 tip for the teller(better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick).Quote: WizardThe more games to choose from the better.
Week 12 is not looking good. I assume the Thanksgiving games will be on the card but so much of the value is in waiting until Saturday on the line movements.
Did anybody make anything in week 11? 4 of the 5 plays I gave you guys won.
-----------
Who's betting tomorrows games?
Underdog | Favorite | Market on Underdog |
---|---|---|
Phil +1.5 | Det | 0 |
Car +1.5 | Dal | PK |
Chic +8.5 | GB | 8 |
NO +2.5 | Texans | 3 |
Min +0.5 | Atl | 1 |
StL +8.5 | Cin | 8 |
TB +3.5 | Indy | 3 |
Wash +2.5 | NYG | 2.5 (EV) |
Ten +1.5 | Oak | 1.5 |
Buffalo +6.5 | KC | 6.5 |
Mia +3.5 | NYJ | 3.5 (-120) |
SD +3.5 | Jack | 4 |
SF +10.5 | Ariz | 10 |
Pit +3.5 | Sea | 3.5 |
Den +2.5 | NEP | 3 (-120) |
Bal +2.5 | Clev | 3 |
The first three games are today and Det/Phil is being played as I write this.
Here are some of my picks for this week as of Thursday morning.
Pick | Basis Points |
---|---|
Hou -2.5 | 18 |
TB +3.5 | 24 |
SF +10.5 | 14 |
NEP -2.5 | 8 |
Clev -2.5 | 18 |
I'll wait until Saturday as usual to see how the lines move.
Quote: Wizard
Pick Basis Points Hou -2.5 18 TB +3.5 24 Ariz +10.5 14 NEP -2.5 8 Clev -2.5 18
I'll wait until Saturday as usual to see how the lines move.
Hello from Asia. Many thanks. You might notice a typo on the Ariz plus 10.5. While most know it's a typo, there are millions out there in the world who might not. Happy Thanksgiving.
Quote: NokTangQuote: Wizard
Pick Basis Points Hou -2.5 18 TB +3.5 24 Ariz +10.5 14 NEP -2.5 8 Clev -2.5 18
I'll wait until Saturday as usual to see how the lines move.
Hello from Asia. Many thanks. You might notice a typo on the Ariz plus 10.5. While most know it's a typo, there are millions out there in the world who might not. Happy Thanksgiving.
Ya ill bet $eleventy dollars
Underdog | Favorite | Market on Underdog |
---|---|---|
NO +2.5 | Texans | +3 (+105) |
Min +0.5 | Atl | 1 |
StL +8.5 | Cin | 9 |
TB +3.5 | Indy | +3 (-120) |
Wash +2.5 | NYG | 2.5 (-105) |
Ten +1.5 | Oak | 1.5 |
Buffalo +6.5 | KC | 6 |
Mia +3.5 | NYJ | +4 (-115) |
SD +3.5 | Jack | 4.5 |
SF +10.5 | Ariz | 10 |
Pit +3.5 | Sea | 3.5 |
Den +2.5 | NEP | +3 (-125) |
Bal +2.5 | Clev | 3 |
Here are my picks:
Pick | Basis Points |
---|---|
Texas -2.5 | 33 |
TB +3.5 | 34 |
Buffalo +6.5 | 10 |
NYJ -3.5 | 9 |
Jack -3.5 | 11 |
SF +10.5 | 14 |
Clev -2.5 | 18 |
Even with only 13 games, there are plenty of ripe picks.
Very heavy on Houston -2.5, Tampa +3.5, Denver +3.5, and Cleveland -2.5
Only bet on Jacksonville -3.5 tonight. Took San Francisco +10.5 off the board, so didn't put them on any cards.
Edit: who thinks browns are going to smash the ravens?