Half Point Parlay Cards -- 2015 season
Quote: Lucky1cool, thanks. Didn't realize +1 to +2.5 was a key enough number. Good luck tonight!
I'm surprised too. Good pick. Perhaps he had an opinion and the extra points pushed it over the fence
I hope as many of you as possible rode my coattails.
The question I ask myself at a time like this is should I be happy for the bigger win, or mad at myself for partially hedging?
Quote: WizardThank you. Thank you. Thank you.
I hope as many of you as possible rode my coattails.
The question I ask myself at a time like this is should I be happy for the bigger win, or mad at myself for partially hedging?
I say you can't take the results of the outcome into play. How did you feel hedging before Kickoff?
Quote: Wizard
The question I ask myself at a time like this is should I be happy for the bigger win, or mad at myself for partially hedging?
Don't do that to yourself. I know you are not a professional gambler, although you certainly could be if you desired, but one lesson we professional gamblers learn early on is to not put yourself through that second guessing crap. You make the best decision you can, and you move on.
For what it's worth, I think you made the right decision. Pittsburgh clearly wasn't the better team on that field. The stats are very lopsided. A couple big plays and SD playing poorly kept Pittsburgh in the game. SD should have won by a couple scores. You wouldn't be second guessing if that had occurred. Enjoy the win...don't second guess yourself. :)
Quote: djatcI say you can't take the results of the outcome into play. How did you feel hedging before Kickoff?
I was fine with it. I got good numbers on the hedge. Looking at it totally mathematically, I shouldn't have hedged, but despite what some people think, I am more than a walking calculator. I wanted to end the day with a win either way. Doing a partial hedge I think is a good way to balance maximizing expected win and expected happiness.
Quote: WizardI was fine with it. I got good numbers on the hedge. Looking at it totally mathematically, I shouldn't have hedged, but despite what some people think, I am more than a walking calculator. I wanted to end the day with a win either way. Doing a partial hedge I think is a good way to balance maximizing expected win and expected happiness.
Nice job and well said with balancing expected happiness. Could be similar to paying off a house or car or something of that nature when depending on the interest rate the math may make sense to not pay off, but the expected happiness makes it worth it.
Quote: WizardI hedged 28.6%. Normally I'm a Charger fan but hope they go down in flames tonight so I don't even have to sweat it.
Tell your GF to be prepared for a trivia barrage at dinner. Some math and logic puzzles too. She hasn't seen anything yet!
She is ready. By the way, Son of SooPoo said he got 10 out of 15 on your last trivia test. Unfortunately he works too hard at school to take a vacation in Vegas.
Anyway... with regards to this thread.... It is so nice to see you turn the +EV you have identified into real cash. See you soon...
Quote: Lucky1Nice job and well said with balancing expected happiness. Could be similar to paying off a house or car or something of that nature when depending on the interest rate the math may make sense to not pay off, but the expected happiness makes it worth it.
Thank you. Funny you mentioned paying off a house. I have been largely criticized for paying off my house when I sold my sites but I make no apologies. There is nothing safe that pays anything close to the 3.5% interest rate I was paying and my track record with riskier investments is pretty poor. Rather just get that debt off my plate and not stress over how to otherwise invest the money. Two less things to worry about.
Quote: WizardThank you. Funny you mentioned paying off a house. I have been largely criticized for paying off my house when I sold my sites but I make no apologies. There is nothing safe that pays anything close to the 3.5% interest rate I was paying and my track record with riskier investments is pretty poor. Rather just get that debt off my plate and not stress over how to otherwise invest the money. Two less things to worry about.
Well done, Wizard. I have NEVER heard anyone say "Damn, I wish I didn't pay off my house."
And if you're the first to regret it, you can always go out and borrow against it in the future.
Quote: Pinit2winit@Wizard, going to release your picks for the week before the thursday game since it looks to be pretty good considering the Falcons are on a Roll?
No. They don't put the Thursday game on the cards. At least at William Hill.
Quote: HowManyWell done, Wizard. I have NEVER heard anyone say "Damn, I wish I didn't pay off my house."
And if you're the first to regret it, you can always go out and borrow against it in the future.
Thank you. I could see regretting it if interest rates went up, or you really needed the money for something, but I don't see either of those things happening.
Besides, I'm very anti-debt. Maybe it is easy for me to say, but I strongly believe in living within your means and borrowing only for a home and useful education, if you can help it.
Quote: WizardNo. They don't put the Thursday game on the cards. At least at William Hill.
They list the games in date order - Thursday NFL is first on the list. Here is week 6:
UPDATED STATS:
(These do not include the Thursday night game played last night)
SIX POINT PLAYS: 39 (Four Blocked PAT's, Sixteen PAT's Missed, one PAT Aborted)
SEVEN POINT PLAYS: 346
EIGHT POINT PLAYS: 17
Going into this Week 5, the average number of successful PAT's, per week, was 3.75, but we only saw two successful attempts this week. Compare that to five failed 2PT Conversions, and overall, it was a bad week for 2PT Conversions. For the first time this year, the success rate drops below fifty percent with 17 successful 2PT against eighteen failed for 48.57% and an Expected Value of .9714 Points.
In the meantime, with only two failed PAT's this week, we see an improvement to 346 successes against 21 failures, or, a 94.28% success rate for .9428 Expected Points.
We notice that the 2PT Conversion actually still has a greater Expected Point Value, but that value is less than one point for the first time this year, and the sample size is still quite limited.
Saints already covered, so that leaves Detroit, Buffalo, Kansas City, and both sides of the Carolina / Seattle game as the top NFL plays left this week. If I bet again, might have to take New England -7.5, just because I could have way too much on Indianapolis +9 if Saturday games go well.
There is nothing wrong with buying off when you're overexposed. I would even argue that if you never find yourself in a position where hedging bets is the correct move you're actually losing profit. Just make sure it is a good price. If you can find it for break-even, it really doesn't matter. Even if losing 2% and giving yourself a middle, at least you're giving yourself the chance to make more good bets in the future. If losing 4.5%, it's very bad
Quote: AyecarumbaCongratulations Wizard! Is it typical to have mostly losing weeks covered by one or two big hits each season; or is the typical season more like weekly 52% wins on the round robin covering 48% losses?
They're parlays. Even the weeks you see the highest EV of the year it's still most likely to every bet will lose (if you're maximizing value). Some of the people betting the biggest on these are looking for that one big week that only comes around every other year. (Not sure if NFL week 5 was it this year as I haven't been too close with them this year). I do know of the Colts and under on Monday night in 2010 giving one group of bettors a near seven figure win; and another similar win in 2012 when the replacement refs gave Seattle a touchdown on the last play.
This is fairly accurate. Lets hope for more weeks like last week. So close to a middle unfortunately someone (you know who you are)may have jinxed us with an overly confident attitude. Lesson learned ......NO SHLEPROCKS http://www.disableddaughter.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/shleprock.gif J/K we already have a Shleprock (you know who you are)Quote: TomGThey're parlays. Even the weeks you see the highest EV of the year it's still most likely to every bet will lose (if you're maximizing value). Some of the people betting the biggest on these are looking for that one big week that only comes around every other year.
NE -7.5 (-9 to -10 closing numbers)
Det -2.5 (-3.5)
Buf +3.5 (+3)
Jets -6.5 (-7.5)
Sea -6.5 (-7)
KC +4.5 (+3.5)
Cleav +4.5 (+3.5)
I see Rx's picks have gone 3-2 on games resolved as of this writing. Keep the faith!
NyJ +9.5 (7.5)
Atl -4.5 (-6)
Tb 3.5 (3.5 -120)
No 4.5 (4)
Oak 4.5 (3.5)
Phil 3.5 (3 -105)
The pit Kc game says "tbd". I don't know what they settled on.
Jack 5.5
NYJ 9.5
Atlanta -4.5
Tampa 3.5
Oakland 4.5
Dallas 3.5
Phil 3.5
Arizona -7.5
May the odds be forever in your favor.
That's good, that should be your new signature.Quote: WizardMay the odds be forever in your favor.
Oh, wait, you didn't come up with that? :)
Quote: MoosetonI have Arizona tonight as the last leg on one of my 1/2 point cards. Line moved to AZ -10 from -7.5. Ticket will pay $520 if AZ covers -7.5. I was going to hedge but then the middle opportunity showed up. I've got no experience with arbitrage. What's the maxEV hedge/middle here? Thanks ahead.
If I understand you correctly, you have Az -7.5 at 'zero' cost to pay $520
And you now can get Bal + 10 paying the usual 11-10.
I'd bet 220 to win 200 on Bal
4 possible results
Az wins by more than 10. You win 300
Az wins by 10. You win 520
Az wins by 8 or 9. You win 720
Az wins by 7 or less or ties or loses. You win 200.
It's still a hedge. You just get the bonus of the middle.
Quote: WizardJack 5.5
NYJ 9.5
Atlanta -4.5
Tampa 3.5
Oakland 4.5
Dallas 3.5
Phil 3.5
Arizona -7.5
Detroit was +2.5 on the cards and closed -1 -- but I guess it's a good thing you passed
Buying off Arizona by taking Baltimore +10 -110 means giving up 2.5% of whatever you bet, based on consensus line right now.
Quote: MoosetonMiddled!!! My lucky sunglasses pulled through again!
Nice, Moose!
Quote: MoosetonMiddled!!! My lucky sunglasses pulled through again!
My suggestion? Won an extra $200? Or did you do more?
Quote: GWAEI have never placed a sports bet in Nevada but it seems weird to me that cards get denied. That should be illegal IMO. They offer a line and someone wants it. They shold have to accept it or pull it down altogether. If I were a black, gay, female, with 1 eye I would sue for descrimintion if they denied a ticket.
Agree completely. They in fact should all be arrested for impersonating a casino. Printing errors are one thing, but being a chicken shit when you have the odds in your favor is inexcusable IMHO.
Quote: GWAEIf I were a black, gay, female, with 1 eye I would sue for descrimintion if they denied a ticket.
You can call Gaming Commission and see how far that gets you
You should only bet NFL sides and only on the William Hill cards. Why make anything less than the best bet?Quote: Pinit2winitSo my and some other guys at work are all going to make a 50 dollar 4 5 6 or 7 team parlay this week. We like kansas at +39.5 and Clemson to cover and possibly whover plays miamI after last weeks disapointment vs Clemson . Do you guys like falcons, cards, vikings, and jets? Was debating lions as well in London at +5.5. Thanks in advance. Sorry for typos or bad English on phone and quickly posting.
Somebody should post this weeks William Hill parlay card soon. There should be at least four plays on there for you.
Edit: I think you mentioned you live near Aliante. They are one of the few casinos with really good parlay card odds. So you could bet with them instead of WH if you wanted.
Quote: z2newtonI hope someone post the WH card as well. I called the casino to see they'd give the lines off the card and they said no. Im like "why they're free to pick up." I suspect that it's not that they can't give it over the phone and more they don't want to deal with it.
It could be because they don't know where you are calling from. If you are calling from outside of Nevada they could get in trouble for interstate transmission of gambling lines.
| William Hill | Market |
|---|---|
| Lions +4.5 | 3.5 |
| Bears +0.5 | 1 |
| TB +7.5 | +7 -120 |
| NYG +3.5 | +3.5 -120 |
| 49ers +8.5 | 8.5 |
| Browns +5.5 | 5.5 |
| Steelers +1.5 | PK |
| SD +3.5 | 3.5 |
| Ten +3.5 | 4.5 |
| Oak +2.5 | +3 -120 |
| Dal +6.5 | 5.5 |
| Denver +2.5 | +2.5 EV |
| Indy +6.5 | 6.5 |
Not a very strong card this week. As of this writing the strongest plays are:
Lions +4.5
TB +7.5
NYG +3.5
Pit +1.5
Hou -3.5 (vs. Ten)
NYJ -2.5 (vs. Oak)
Dal +6.5
