Half Point Parlay Cards -- 2015 season
Quote: rudeboyoiCowboys +3.5 would be a sick way to lose.
It sure was. Didn't have it on the parlay cards, but did grab it at MGM.
First of all, these stats include both the Monday night game from last week and the Monday night game from this week. Secondly, the DAL/NO game ended in a NO TD in OT, therefore, there was no opportunity for an extra point attempt or 2PT to happen, thus, it will not count in six point scores.
SIX POINT PLAYS: 32 (Four Blocked PAT's, Fourteen PAT's Missed, One PAT Aborted)
SEVEN POINT PLAYS: 284
EIGHT POINT PLAYS: 15
The average number of successful 2PT Conversions for the first three weeks was 3.67, and we saw four this week with fewer games played due to the first bye week of the season. For those four successful 2PT attempts, we only saw two failed 2PT attempts this week. That means that there have been 15 successes in 28 attempts for a success rate of 53.57% and an Expected Value of 1.0714 Points.
In the meantime, we were down to four failed PAT's this week, but again, there were fewer games. PAT's are now 284 successes in 303 attempts, so the success rate is 93.73% and the Expected Value is .9373 points.
In 2014, there were only 59 2PT Conversions ATTEMPTED for the entire season, for 2015, we have nearly half that many attempts in just four weeks.
Click on image for larger version.
It is early yet, but the good plays as of Thursday evening look like:
TB -2.5
Wash +7.5
Cin -2.5
Ariz -2.5
Marginal:
NYG: -6.5
Pit: +3.5
I recommend patience this week and bet late, hoping more sides become ripe.
Quote: Wizard
Cin -2.5
This pains me since they are playing the Seahawks..... but EV is EV
Quote: djatcThis pains me since they are playing the Seahawks..... but EV is EV
BET IT ALL!!
Quote: RSBET IT ALL!!
Don't do it djatc! The Legion of Boom has a long memory...
Quote: AyecarumbaDon't do it djatc! The Legion of Boom has a long memory...
The half points are logically based. My feelings do not dictate which team gets picked.
Seahawks +3 vs Bengals is emotionally based. They don't even have to win just lose by less than 3 points! I will probably make another low $ bet just to have skin in the game.
Furthermore, even with the point spread the proposition is still not perfectly 50/50, for example maybe a fair line is Team A -7 -103, Team B +7 +103. The bookmaker is likely sharp enough to make the line Team B +7 1/2 rather than +6 1/2.
My concern is that we are trying to buck a house edge around 20%, and compounding even small differences like this over 6 or 7 teams might make our EV much lower than the model predicts. Would love to hear others thoughts on this, and all that said, Kudos to the Wizard for finding and publishing this very interesting stuff.
Quote: WizardThese things are not worth driving to Vegas for...from anywhere. I hope you had other reasons to come.
I went to Laughlin actually, but I also just enjoy the trip to NV as a vacation. A couple of small +EV plays give me more value on the margin to make the trip.
Quote: bigfoot66Is it possible that these card plays are lower EV than we think? The whole play is based on the premise that the NFL betting markets are (close to) perfectly efficient but clearly they are not since Billy Walters is still beating the market.
That is one reason to wait until Saturday to bet these, after Billy and those riding his coattails bet into the lines.
Quote:Furthermore, even with the point spread the proposition is still not perfectly 50/50, for example maybe a fair line is Team A -7 -103, Team B +7 +103. The bookmaker is likely sharp enough to make the line Team B +7 1/2 rather than +6 1/2.
Yes, they do that. However, getting B at +7.5, when +7 +103 is fair is still a strong play. Three basis points is not that much compared to getting a half full point off seven.
Quote:My concern is that we are trying to buck a house edge around 20%, and compounding even small differences like this over 6 or 7 teams might make our EV much lower than the model predicts. Would love to hear others thoughts on this, and all that said, Kudos to the Wizard for finding and publishing this very interesting stuff.
We need to hit only 52.53% on the 5-team parlay card, 51.10% on the six-team, and 51.79% on the seven-team to break even. Getting those extra half points gets us above those percentages.
Edit: we need the rogue line on the card to take us from a 20% House Edge to a 20% Player edge, that is a very big move to get off of a half point. If that half a point is really only 92% as valuable as the model assumes, then our edge would likely be much smaller than we think, no?
I don't disagree that 20% is too high. As I point out in my last Ask the Wizard column, the value of this play decreases each year.
Quote: bigfoot66The whole play is based on the premise that the NFL betting markets are (close to) perfectly efficient but clearly they are not since Billy Walters is still beating the market. If the bookmaker knows which direction the line is off , he can cut in to our EV by moving the half point in that direction.
The premise isn't that the market is perfectly efficient, the main premise is that you can pay Thursdays prices on Saturday night or Sunday morning.
Quote: bigfoot66Furthermore, even with the point spread the proposition is still not perfectly 50/50, for example maybe a fair line is Team A -7 -103, Team B +7 +103. The bookmaker is likely sharp enough to make the line Team B +7 1/2 rather than +6 1/2.
Go to 5dimes, Greek, Heritage, or Pinnacle. You can bet any point spread you see on the card. If the take back is the same price as they offer on the cards you essentially are the house. It's as if you owned one of those books and took a bet on these games (except instead of laying -50000 by booking the parlay, you're getting +50000)
Any casino give points or any comps on these (other than drink tickets)?
Stations used to give 0.6% on parlay cards (0.1% off the board) some times, but I don't go there anymore
Cannery, Eastside Cannery (South Point?) gives a full 1% back on parlay cards (much less for off the board bets)
I thought Aliante was giving 1% back, but that's only "Tier Credits," not actual points; so you can get the card that lets you move the front of the line in just a couple weeks, but you won't get much of a discount on any meal.
The best was some Coast properties giving a free $5 parlay if you made a $50 parlay (from parlay cards or off the board), but that stopped a long time ago.
I remember one sportsbook giving out "7-5" matchplays (risk $5, to win $12) pretty freely during football games.
Quote: TomGSomething that could be of value that I haven't seen talked about yet:
Any casino give points or any comps on these (other than drink tickets)?
Good question. William Hill has some kind of point program but I don't know the details. Can anybody shed more light on this?
Quote: WizardGood question. William Hill has some kind of point program but I don't know the details. Can anybody shed more light on this?
Anywhere from 2 free drink tickets to nothing, and everything in between.... sports bettors don't get jack :( I was surprised. You can wrangle out a buffet comp from a pit boss if you bet the minimum on table games, but nothing for $100 sports bettors.
Quote: TomGThe premise isn't that the market is perfectly efficient, the main premise is that you can pay Thursdays prices on Saturday night or Sunday morning.
Sort of; the bookmaker must move a 7 point line to 6 1/2 or 7 1/2. You have to buck a 20% house edge to get that rogue line. My larger point is that the Wizard's analysis assumes that the bookmaker moves the line from 7 to 7 1/2 or 6 1/2 randomly, I am asserting that the bookmaker takes a very educated position when he moves the line, so you are getting less value than the model assumes from that half point move.
Quote: TomG
Go to 5dimes, Greek, Heritage, or Pinnacle. You can bet any point spread you see on the card. If the take back is the same price as they offer on the cards you essentially are the house. It's as if you owned one of those books and took a bet on these games (except instead of laying -50000 by booking the parlay, you're getting +50000)
I'm not sure what your point is here. I was pointing out that the point spread does not make a perfectly fair line, it approximates a fair line and in most cases there is not a point spread that creates a perfectly 50/50 proposition. For example the spread on AZ/DET is AZ-3. Let's say that the bookmaker believes that AZ will win 50.15% of the time at -3. He will now move the line AZ-3.5 rather than AZ -2.5 as this gives the player using the Wizard's strategy a smaller edge. Again, the Wizard's analysis assumes that the 1/2 point movements are done at random, if I am right and the bookmaker is educated he can move the line in the direction that cuts into our EV.
If the book is "nudging" the line in the direction that cuts down the EV for one side, doesn' t that open the other side to an increase in EV?Quote: bigfoot66Sort of; the bookmaker must move a 7 point line to 6 1/2 or 7 1/2. You have to buck a 20% house edge to get that rogue line. My larger point is that the Wizard's analysis assumes that the bookmaker moves the line from 7 to 7 1/2 or 6 1/2 randomly, I am asserting that the bookmaker takes a very educated position when he moves the line, so you are getting less value than the model assumes from that half point move.
I'm not sure what your point is here. I was pointing out that the point spread does not make a perfectly fair line, it approximates a fair line and in most cases there is not a point spread that creates a perfectly 50/50 proposition. For example the spread on AZ/DET is AZ-3. Let's say that the bookmaker believes that AZ will win 50.15% of the time at -3. He will now move the line AZ-3.5 rather than AZ -2.5 as this gives the player using the Wizard's strategy a smaller edge. Again, the Wizard's analysis assumes that the 1/2 point movements are done at random, if I am right and the bookmaker is educated he can move the line in the direction that cuts into our EV.
Quote: AyecarumbaIf the book is "nudging" the line in the direction that cuts down the EV for one side, doesn' t that open the other side to an increase in EV?
You don't understand my point. Assume that you have a proposition that is not 50/50 but rather 50.15/49.85 given a 7 point spread. You must give an extra half point to one of the two sides. Assume a half point value of 1%. You will give the extra half point to the 49.85% side, which means the new probabilities are 49.15%/50.85%.
My criticism of the Wizard's model is that he assumes that the spread always creates 50/50 propositions and/or that the extra half point is given randomly. I assert that the events are not perfectly 50/50, that the bookmaker is smart enough to know who has the very small edge, and that he moves the line accordingly. This means that, while we get a good deal of value from the extra half point, it is less value than we would get if the line was moved randomly as the model assumes. The Wizard's model suggests that these half point movements take us from being a 20% underdog to having a 20% edge, I assert that the effect I describe, while small, becomes significant when parlayed across 7 + events and takes a big chunk out of that 40% change in EV that we predict with the model.
TB -2.5
Ten +2.5
Wash +7.5
Cin -2.5
Ariz -2.5
Pit +3.5
Quote: bigfoot66For example the spread on AZ/DET is AZ-3. Let's say that the bookmaker believes that AZ will win 50.15% of the time at -3. He will now move the line AZ-3.5 rather than AZ -2.5 as this gives the player using the Wizard's strategy a smaller edge. Again, the Wizard's analysis assumes that the 1/2 point movements are done at random, if I am right and the bookmaker is educated he can move the line in the direction that cuts into our EV.
On the parlay cards you are paying about -108 on the Lions +3.5. Or you can bet the Cardinals -3.5 +114 off the board. If these parlay cards do not have a positive expected value, than you can just get rich betting the other side off the board
Quote: TomGOn the parlay cards you are paying about -108 on the Lions +3.5.
The HE of the cards, ignoring the rogue lines, is about 20%, so I think you are paying substantially more than -108, aren't you paying closer to -125? Perhaps I am confused. I think you are wrong but your post sounds so confident that I am begining to doubt myself. The attraction of the cards is that they offer lines not available on the board, so I don't understand why you are saying that I can take the other side off the board.
You say that I can take the cardinals -3.5 +114; if the line on the board says AZ -3 -110 how do I bet AZ -3.5 +114? Is there an option where you move the line against yourself and pick up 24 basis points? I'm not familiar with this bet.
Quote: bigfoot66The HE of the cards, ignoring the rogue lines, is about 20%, so I think you are paying substantially more than -108, aren't you paying closer to -125? Perhaps I am confused. I think you are wrong but your post sounds so confident that I am begining to doubt myself. The attraction of the cards is that they offer lines not available on the board, so I don't understand why you are saying that I can take the other side off the board.
You say that I can take the cardinals -3.5 +114; if the line on the board says AZ -3 -110 how do I bet AZ -3.5 +114? Is there an option where you move the line against yourself and pick up 24 basis points? I'm not familiar with this bet.
I'll let you correct me but I think I understand why it's -108 not -125....that 20% HE number is a result of parlaying several propositions that have a smaller than 20% HE....
Quote: bigfoot66
You say that I can take the cardinals -3.5 +114; if the line on the board says AZ -3 -110 how do I bet AZ -3.5 +114? Is there an option where you move the line against yourself and pick up 24 basis points? I'm not familiar with this bet.
Odd, I was thinking about this prospect myself last week. I don't think it's offered, and it might make for an interesting and enticing wager for the gambling public. Say for instance you were so confident in the Cardinals winning by seven or more, could you find a joint willing to take your wager giving you special odds laying the seven points when the actual line is -3 ?
In days gone by, with illegal bookies, you could in fact buy a 1/2 point on some lines but I've been out of that arena for many years so don't know know.
Quote: bigfoot66I'll let you correct me but I think I understand why it's -108 not -125....that 20% HE number is a result of parlaying several propositions that have a smaller than 20% HE....
Yes. It has to do with compounding a small advantage over 5 to 7 picks.
Quote: NokTangOdd, I was thinking about this prospect myself last week. I don't think it's offered, and it might make for an interesting and enticing wager for the gambling public. Say for instance you were so confident in the Cardinals winning by seven or more, could you find a joint willing to take your wager giving you special odds laying the seven points when the actual line is -3 ?
In days gone by, with illegal bookies, you could in fact buy a 1/2 point on some lines but I've been out of that arena for many years so don't know know.
It is normal to be allowed to buy a half point off the spread if you lay ten more basis points, except they generally don't allow it off of the three. On the Superbowl there are lots of alternative spreads. Maybe the Sunday and Monday night games too but I seldom find value in them so don't pay much attention.
Quote: bigfoot66The HE of the cards, ignoring the rogue lines, is about 20%, so I think you are paying substantially more than -108, aren't you paying closer to -125?
A $10 seven team parlay pays back $1000. Which is near exactly what a seven team parlay with each leg at -108 pays out (the price is actually a little bit lower than -108)
Game 1: 10 / 1.08 = 9.26
9.26 + 10 = 19.26
Game 2: 19.26 / 1.08 = 17.83
17.83 + 19.26 = 37.09
Game 3: 37.09 / 1.08 = 34.35
34.35 + 37.09 = 71.44
Game 4: 71.44 / 1.08 = 66.14
66.14 + 71.44 = 137.58
Game 5: 137.58 / 1.08 = 127.39
127.39 + 137.58 = 264.97
Game 6: 264.97 / 1.08 = 245.34
245.34 + 264.97 = 513.31
Game 7: 513.31 / 1.08 = 475.29
475.29 + 513.31 = 988.60
Or: 1 / [108/208]^7 = 98.28
Or: https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/parlay-calculator/
Quote: bigfoot66You say that I can take the cardinals -3.5 +114; if the line on the board says AZ -3 -110 how do I bet AZ -3.5 +114? Is there an option where you move the line against yourself and pick up 24 basis points? I'm not familiar with this bet.
That was the line being offered by pinnaclesports.com when I made the post. Game is just starting now and looks like it closed at 4.5, so maybe Arizona -3.5 would have been a better bet than Detroit, but we can only go with the information we have at the time. If a casino doesn't offer an alternative point spread any of the best online books will. And they will take higher limits, charge smaller commission, and are just as likely to pay out as any ticket written in Nevada.
Quote: WizardHere are my picks for tomorrow:
TB -2.5
Ten +2.5
Wash +7.5
Cin -2.5
Ariz -2.5
Pit +3.5
It looks like a good day for the Wizard.
Quote: WizardHere are my picks for tomorrow:
TB -2.5
Ten +2.5
Wash +7.5
Cin -2.5
Ariz -2.5
Pit +3.5
5 out of 5 so far! The Steelers are Monday night. Hope lots of you were riding my coattails.
Alas, the usual question, to hedge or not to hedge.
Looking some some of you might be sweating NYG -6.5 tonight. Line is at -7.5 now. I guess that didn't look so good at the time I bet but sure looks good now.
Any parlay-card betting WoV members in town? Perhaps we should get together for Monday night football to share to the experience.
To hedge or not to hedge? <- LOL
The decision to hedge or not should not be based on amount (but usually is), so I am curious as to what kind of money you are looking at?
Quote: kewljso I am curious as to what kind of money you are looking at?
Answered by PM.
I'm guessing the Wizard has a six-teamer and a round robin of six five-teamers. $80 a pop, $4,000+$10,000 for the cards with the Steelers still in play. Anyone want to take his hedge bet?:)
Well done again, Wizard.
Quote: teddysOy. I picked the wrong week to make my bets in Vegas. One week too early!
I'm guessing the Wizard has a six-teamer and a round robin of six five-teamers. $80 a pop, $4,000+$10,000 for the cards with the Steelers still in play. Anyone want to take his hedge bet?:)
Well done again, Wizard.
That's very close. Just increase the bet amounts. Don't congratulate me yet. I've still got Pit +3.5.
Time to start shopping for a good hedge.
Quote: WizardThat's very close. Just increase the bet amounts. Don't congratulate me yet. I've still got Pit +3.5.
Time to start shopping for a good hedge.
In fact, congratulations are in order. Very well done. To be in a position to "hedge" or not is a success and a job well done, no matter the outcome. Last season you were against hedging in most cases but money changes everyone. I'm going to cheer for Pittsburgh on the assumption you will at least have more than half the money on them. Good luck.
Quote: WizardThat's very close. Just increase the bet amounts. Don't congratulate me yet. I've still got Pit +3.5.
Time to start shopping for a good hedge.
Thou shalt not hedge thy bets lest thou shall be smitten by the rod.
That rule is WRONG don't care what anyone says.Quote: mipletThou shalt not hedge thy bets lest thou shall be smitten by the rod.
Thank god for hedging or we win less.
I say hedge for less
Hedging is good especially when you get a chance to middle if it lands on 7.
People can say they won't hedge all they want, but when you have thousands that can be locked up in cash VS a chance at double or nothing with little or no skin I'm the game that's easy to say. When someone is in that situation show me then tell me you never hedge.
Quote: AxelWolfI say hedge for less
To be honest, I'm probably going to do that.
Normally I'm not one to talk handicapping, but if it weren't for any injuries or suspensions I would put the final score
Pit 24.3
SD 22.9
I don't know how to adjust for Roethlisberger being out. Anyway, it is easier to hedge if I can justify it being a good bet.
I don't see the problem in locking up profit, and assessing how much you want to leave to risk. Especially when the giants don't cover
Quote: Wizard5 out of 5 so far! The Steelers are Monday night. Hope lots of you were riding my coattails.
Alas, the usual question, to hedge or not to hedge.
Looking some some of you might be sweating NYG -6.5 tonight. Line is at -7.5 now. I guess that didn't look so good at the time I bet but sure looks good now.
Any parlay-card betting WoV members in town? Perhaps we should get together for Monday night football to share to the experience.
WOW awesome job! Just curious, what was reason on choosing Ten +2.5?
Example: NO on Hillary for the Dem. Nom was +500 at some point. I thought there was no way she would be such a massive wire to wire favorite. The media need a story with conflict. We need at least the illusion of a democratic process. Even her campaign needs the narrative of her actually beating people rather than getting the nom through money and connections. So I locked up +500 and bought out later. I'd do the same for almost any candidate who wasn't an incumbent.
If it's a straight value play, where I think my outcome can hit, I bet an amount where I'll be fine not hedging if I don't like the other side. For example, I've got LSU to win the championship at 25-1. Rather than bet an amount where I'll feel compelled to take a -ev side, I bet an amount where I'll be comfortable riding it out if they make it into the playoffs and I think that's the way to go.
On the other hand, the niners/giants just killed me.
Quote: Lucky1WOW awesome job! Just curious, what was reason on choosing Ten +2.5?
The market was Ten +1 at the time I bet. Line movement.
Quote: Wizard5 out of 5 so far! The Steelers are Monday night. Hope lots of you were riding my coattails.
Alas, the usual question, to hedge or not to hedge.
Looking some some of you might be sweating NYG -6.5 tonight. Line is at -7.5 now. I guess that didn't look so good at the time I bet but sure looks good now.
Any parlay-card betting WoV members in town? Perhaps we should get together for Monday night football to share to the experience.
I recommend a small (20%) hedge. That way no matter what happens you will have won enough money to treat me and GF for dinner.......
Quote: SOOPOOI recommend a small (20%) hedge. That way no matter what happens you will have won enough money to treat me and GF for dinner.......
I hedged 28.6%. Normally I'm a Charger fan but hope they go down in flames tonight so I don't even have to sweat it.
Tell your GF to be prepared for a trivia barrage at dinner. Some math and logic puzzles too. She hasn't seen anything yet!
