Half Point Parlay Cards -- 2015 season
Pittsburg scored a TD first in their game and successfully went for 2 pt conversion for an 8-0 lead. Coach Tomlin says he intends to go for 2 the majority of the time as he feels he will make it more than 50% of the time.
(the two point conversion discussion which is part of this thread really should be broken into it's own thread)
They went for 2 points successfully after their first TD for 8-0 lead.
They went for 2 points successfully after their second TC for 16-3 lead.
They went for 1 point (kick) after their third TD but MISSED for a 22-3 lead.
They went for 1 after their 4th TD, successfully kicking an extra point for 29-3 lead.
So who knows what the hell Tomlin is thinking. He's all over the place.
Quote: kewljFirst real defection concerning 2 point conversions.
Pittsburg scored a TD first in their game and successfully went for 2 pt conversion for an 8-0 lead. Coach Tomlin says he intends to go for 2 the majority of the time as he feels he will make it more than 50% of the time.
(the two point conversion discussion which is part of this thread really should be broken into it's own thread)
I went back and looked at it (splitting the thread), but the Wizard started talking about the PAT in the first post, and the discussion is so intertwined I think it would fracture both to try and split the thread. A lot of them would have to be split-edited, which is not possible. Good thought, though.
Perhaps the thread would benefit from a title change, like: 1/2 Pt Parlays and the PAT new rules.
criticized is a strong word.Quote: Wizard
I've been criticized off the forum for betting these too early. So, out of necessity this time, I'm going to give it more time to let the lines mature. I'll probably put in my cards Saturday night or Sunday morning, assuming more sides ripen.
There are pros and cons either way.
I'm wondering how much value one gives up over all or by the end of the season betting early. Is it worth getting up Sunday morning VS just doing it on Thursday or Friday? That answer may be different for everyone.
This may be worth keeping track of.
Quote: KeeneoneWhy did IND -6.5 get eliminated?
That pick was borderline. The market was Indy -7 EV, so you're betting the ugly side of 7. Also, they are a favorite.
Quote: kewljPittsburg scored a TD first in their game and successfully went for 2 pt conversion for an 8-0 lead. Coach Tomlin says he intends to go for 2 the majority of the time as he feels he will make it more than 50% of the time.
Smart man. Please post that in the two-point conversion thread. I hope Mission reads it.
Quote: WizardSmart man. Please post that in the two-point conversion thread. I hope Mission reads it.
I didn't want to say anything that would disturb the natural flow of the Comments of the first Article, but I did write a follow-up Article where I think we might find some middle ground.
As always, I encourage everyone to have a look and put related Comments in the Comments section on the Article page:
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/Much-Ado-About-Two-Part-II/
Six Point Plays: 16 (Two Blocked PATs, Seven PATs Missed)
Seven Point Plays: 143
Eight Point Plays: 8
Okay, so we're holding pretty steady here in terms of numbers, except there seems to have been one extra failed PAT and maybe an extra failed 2PT.
PATs are currently sitting at a Success Rate of 94.08% and have an Expected Point Value of .9408. 2PT Conversions are currently 8-7 for a 53.33% Success Rate and 1.067 Expected Points.
These Results do not include the Monday game and will be updated. Three of the four successful 2PT came in the Steelers game, (one by the 49ers) and Tomlin did mention he'd be going for them pretty aggressively this year.
Quote: djatcDamn Texans
The football team or the people from Texas? lol
Quote: beachbumbabsThere was definitely a failed 2PT on Sunday. I'm almost sure it was PHL in the 2nd half. Throw to the left pylon, caught but tackled 1/2 step short of the goal line. Anybody?
I meant an extra one as compared to the number of successful ones. Last week was 4-2, this week was 4-5, so actually a few extra failed attempts.
Quote: Mission146I meant an extra one as compared to the number of successful ones. Last week was 4-2, this week was 4-5, so actually a few extra failed attempts.
I think I'm not understanding your stats, from what you wrote previously. I thought you were differentiating between failed PAT's and failed 2PT's, but you didn't list any failed 2PT's. I'll just go back in my corner and be quiet now. :)
Quote: beachbumbabsI think I'm not understanding your stats, from what you wrote previously. I thought you were differentiating between failed PAT's and failed 2PT's, but you didn't list any failed 2PT's. I'll just go back in my corner and be quiet now. :)
I am, but anything that is not a missed or blocked PAT and is a six-point play is automatically a failed 2PT.
| 3pt. MOV | 2 | 6.25% |
| 7pt. MOV | 6 | 18.75% |
Another graph I'd like to see from the Wizard is average plays per game vs. average points per game.
Quote: beachbumbabsThere was definitely a failed 2PT on Sunday. I'm almost sure it was PHL in the 2nd half. Throw to the left pylon, caught but tackled 1/2 step short of the goal line. Anybody?
Babs, the Chargers also failed a 2 pointer against the Bengals in the Fourth quarter. It screwed me because I had them +3.5, the lost 24-19, I would of covered had they made it. Also messed up a four leg parlay /shakes fist
Quote: bigfoot66Does anyone have the William hill card for this week? I am curious if there are enough good plays to justify a trip to Nevada this weekend.
I haven't seen it yet. I'm hoping to get a picture of it soon.
Meanwhile, I devote a lot of time to the two-point conversion questions posed by Mission in his two articles here. You can find the results of my analysis in Ask the Wizard column #293 -- the last question.
On field goal attempts the ball is placed on one of the two hash marks (closest to were the last play ended), so field goal attempts are all kicked off center at an angle. For extra points the ball is placed dead center of the hash marks, so there is no angle involved.
Therefore, I would expect the success rate of 32 yard extra points, kicked straight on, to be higher that 32 yard field goals kicked at an angle from one of the hash marks, that are being used to project success rate. How much difference? I have no idea. :/
Quote: kewljTherefore, I would expect the success rate of 32 yard extra points, kicked straight on, to be higher that 32 yard field goals kicked at an angle from one of the hash marks, that are being used to project success rate. How much difference? I have no idea. :/
Good point. I have no idea either but suspect the effect is minimal.
Rams +1.5
SD +2.5
TB +6.5
Phily +2.5
NO +4.5
Jack +13.5
Cin +2.5
Oak +3.5
Ten +3.5
Dal +1.5
SF +6.5
Chic +14.5
Buff +2.5
Det +3.5
KC +6.5
Huge move on the Car/NO game. The market has Carolina as an 8-point favorite but you have to lay only 4.5 on the card. I don't know what happened in that game but I suspect it is circled, meaning off the card.
Otherwise good picks are:
Ten +3.5 (market +3 -105)
Mia -2.5 (market -3 EV)
Det +3.5 (market +3 EV)
I'll try to find out of they're taking Carolina. If not, I'm going to sit out week 3.
What I find strange is the line moved 3.5 points. Is Drew Brees, one of the top QB's in the league the last decade only worth 3.5 points when compared to his replacement, Luke McCown, who has a starting record of 2-7, has thrown more interceptions than TD in his career and has only thrown one pass in the last 3 seasons and that was incomplete. Brees is worth a field goal compared to this guy?
Funny that the McCown brothers Luke and Josh will both be starting Sunday. Luke for New Orleans and Josh for Cleveland. I mean these guys aren't exactly the Manning brothers. lol.
Quote: WizardYou can find the results of my analysis in Ask the Wizard column #293 -- the last question.
Reminded recently that the rule changes helping offenses and passing were even bigger than those graphs show because they were offset by the changes to the running clock leading to fewer plays overall. A graph of yards per play shows an increase from 5.0 to 5.4 in an almost perfectly straight line.
To again comment on comparing three team parlays to single game wagers: It is counter intuitive to think it can be better to pay -110 than -109. But it also seems to go against everything to think 54% is truly realistic. Starting with just $1,000 and a $34 bet, a sports bettor who can find three plays per day will hit limits in a little over two years. Starting with a bankroll equal to one year of minimum wage work, making just three bets a day, a sports bettor will be over the posted limits for everything except for NFL full game sides in just 2.5 years. Now imagine someone who might average five bets per day.
To me, that's just a good reminder that unless you are already betting the limit, you probably don't have a 54% chance of winning the bets you're making. Which is why any decline in value of key numbers doesn't have to ruin the value of 1/2 parlay cards. So long as there are fair payouts, it will always be a free way to beat market price
Quote: kewljWhat I find strange is the line moved 3.5 points.
The line was Carolina -2.5 before last Sunday's games. Moved to 3.5 after the Saints looked so horrible against Tampa, then off the board, then came back on around 9/9.5, before dropping slightly. So if anything they're saying Brees could be worth as much as a full seven points
If there was anything on the board on the game during the week, it was based on Brees being uncertain. Just like the summer with Brady in the opener against Pittsburgh.
Quote: TomGBut it also seems to go against everything to think 54% is truly realistic. Starting with just $1,000 and a $34 bet, a sports bettor who can find three plays per day will hit limits in a little over two years. Starting with a bankroll equal to one year of minimum wage work, making just three bets a day, a sports bettor will be over the posted limits for everything except for NFL full game sides in just 2.5 years. Now imagine someone who might average five bets per day.
I agree. Didn't the OP mention 70% or something like that? I've had people write to me claiming win percentages against the spread of 90%.
Anyway, my question didn't mean to support that 54% win probabilities are possible but was more of a math question of what is the better way to grow a bankroll if such a percentage were possible.
Jeff Allen is 16-2 against the spread so far this year......just ask him or his reps.
And yet CBS Radio takes his ads week after week.
And Wayne Root ran for Vice President after hitting 79% winners for 8 straight years.
Quote: Mission146UPDATE:
Six Point Plays: 16 (Two Blocked PATs, Seven PATs Missed)
Seven Point Plays: 143
Eight Point Plays: 8
Okay, so we're holding pretty steady here in terms of numbers, except there seems to have been one extra failed PAT and maybe an extra failed 2PT.
PATs are currently sitting at a Success Rate of 94.08% and have an Expected Point Value of .9408. 2PT Conversions are currently 8-7 for a 53.33% Success Rate and 1.067 Expected Points.
These Results do not include the Monday game and will be updated. Three of the four successful 2PT came in the Steelers game, (one by the 49ers) and Tomlin did mention he'd be going for them pretty aggressively this year.
Okay, including the Monday game, seven point plays go up to 146 out of 155 PATs for a 94.19% success rate.
Quote: kewljThe saints line change is because QB Drew Brees is out. He was questionable earlier in the week when the lines came out and now is definitely out.
What I find strange is the line moved 3.5 points. Is Drew Brees, one of the top QB's in the league the last decade only worth 3.5 points when compared to his replacement, Luke McCown, who has a starting record of 2-7, has thrown more interceptions than TD in his career and has only thrown one pass in the last 3 seasons and that was incomplete. Brees is worth a field goal compared to this guy?
Funny that the McCown brothers Luke and Josh will both be starting Sunday. Luke for New Orleans and Josh for Cleveland. I mean these guys aren't exactly the Manning brothers. lol.
I missed the story in Cleveland. What happened to Johnny?
Regardless, the fix is certainly in for this Panthers vs. Saints game. The Saints scare Cam Newton big time. It's not only their uniforms but the city of New Orleans itself. Rest assured, he will provide enough turnovers to allow the Saints to cover, perhaps even win straight up.
Quote: NokTangI missed the story in Cleveland. What happened to Johnny?
Regardless, the fix is certainly in for this Panthers vs. Saints game. The Saints scare Cam Newton big time. It's not only their uniforms but the city of New Orleans itself. Rest assured, he will provide enough turnovers to allow the Saints to cover, perhaps even win straight up.
I believe they just said he isn't ready. He had a decent game but local talkshows (Pittsburgh not Cleveland) say that he was missing a lot of basic plays that a vet would have made.
Quote: NokTangI missed the story in Cleveland. What happened to Johnny?
Regardless, the fix is certainly in for this Panthers vs. Saints game. The Saints scare Cam Newton big time. It's not only their uniforms but the city of New Orleans itself. Rest assured, he will provide enough turnovers to allow the Saints to cover, perhaps even win straight up.
It would be helpful if you clarified what you mean by "the fix is in." How was this game fixed? Cam Newton was so scared that he threw for 315 yards with 2 touchdowns and no picks. He also ran 7 times averaging just under 5 yards per carry. The fix? Come on.
Tennessee covered, barely, but Detroit and Miami got crushed. Not a good week for the Wizard's parlay picks. 2-2.
Six Point Plays: 26 (Three Blocked PATs, Eleven PATs Missed, One PAT Aborted)
Seven Point Plays: 218
Eight Point Plays: 11
These stats do not include the Monday night game.
Assuming there are no successful 2PT Conversions Monday Night, we've actually fallen from four successful to three successful this week.
Failed PAT's were the order of the Week this week with a total of Six failed PAT's. In any case, there have been a total of 218 successful PAT's and a total of 15 Failed PAT's, (in one fashion or another) which gives us a success rate of 93.56% for .9356 Expected Points.
In the meantime, 2PT Conversions, which were 8/15, are now 11/22 for a 50% success rate. Thus, the Expected Value is 1.00 point.
Thursday nights game is cut off but Steelers are
+3.5 versus the Ravens.
Quote: kewljOn field goal attempts the ball is placed on one of the two hash marks (closest to were the last play ended), so field goal attempts are all kicked off center at an angle. For extra points the ball is placed dead center of the hash marks, so there is no angle involved.
Therefore, I would expect the success rate of 32 yard extra points, kicked straight on, to be higher that 32 yard field goals kicked at an angle from one of the hash marks, that are being used to project success rate. How much difference? I have no idea. :/
I think that a 32 yard FG and the new mark for the extra point can be compared quite favorably. 1) the ball in football is placed on the nearest hash when the play ends outside the hash, which is most of the time, but not always. Therefore, some 32 yard goals are kicked from mid-field. 2) The kicker has the option of kicking the extra point from mid-field or from the hash, and I've seen many of them take it from the right hash for right footed kickers, which indicates they feel more confident from this spot than then center of the field anyway; 3) the hash in pro football is much closer in the NFL than college ball which dramatically decreases the impact. Pro ball is only 18'6", which is only 9'3" off center. 18'6" is also width of the goal posts. By comparison, the NCAA hash marks are 40' apart or 20' off center.
Quote: teddysWIZARD what are the good picks this week? We need your help!
As of Thursday night here are the strong plays:
Atl -6.5
TB +3.5
Chic +3.5
Wash +3.5
Den -6.5
Ariz -6.5
NO -3.5
It is too bad we did not get the Steelers game in there. Landed exactly on three points. Also middled all four legs of the teaser card.Quote: WizardAs of Thursday night here are the strong plays:
Atl -6.5
TB +3.5
Chic +3.5
Wash +3.5
Den -6.5
Ariz -6.5
NO -3.5
Quote: teddysIt is too bad we did not get the Steelers game in there. Landed exactly on three points. Also middled all four legs of the teaser card.
Yeah. That game was the perfect example of the value of the half point off of three.
Quote: WizardAs of Thursday night here are the strong plays:
Atl -6.5
TB +3.5
Chic +3.5
Wash +3.5
Den -6.5
Ariz -6.5
NO -3.5
I agree with the Wiz except I'm leaning toward Dallas +3.5 over No -3.5. The Saints are bad, even with ( a banged up) Brees back
Quote: hailtotheskinsI agree with the Wiz except I'm leaning toward Dallas +3.5 over No -3.5. The Saints are bad, even with ( a banged up) Brees back
I agree. Here are my updated plays:
104 TB +3.5
112 Chic +3.5
116 Wash +3.5
120 KC +4.5 (marginal)
124 Clev +7.5
128 SF +9.5 (line move -- market is SF +8)
131 Den -6.5
135 Ariz -6.5
140 Dal +3.5
Quote: WizardI agree. Here are my updated plays:
104 TB +3.5
112 Chic +3.5
116 Wash +3.5
120 KC +4.5 (marginal)
124 Clev +7.5
128 SF +9.5 (line move -- market is SF +8)
131 Den -6.5
135 Ariz -6.5
140 Dal +3.5
Thanks for posting this Wizard. having 9 plays justifies a trip to NV tonight :)
400 to 1, one time!Quote: bigfoot66Thanks for posting this Wizard. having 9 plays justifies a trip to NV tonight :)
Seriously, though, how would you bet these? A nine teamer is a little too much variance for me. I might throw down a small bet on an eight teamer, then bet bigger on a bunch of six and seven teamers. (Six teamer is the sweet spot).
I'll leave KC off the cards.
Quote: bigfoot66Thanks for posting this Wizard. having 9 plays justifies a trip to NV tonight :)
These things are not worth driving to Vegas for...from anywhere. I hope you had other reasons to come.
Quote: bigfoot66I think the Wizard says that the Kelly bet is 6 or 7 teamers but the bigger the card the higher your EV is but obviously with exponentially increasing variance.
The correct Kelly bet would be based on your bankroll -- eventually 10 teams is the best payout. For a couple years MGM 12 team parlays had the best EV, so that's what a lot of the biggest betters spent a lot of their time on.
For those of us without a high enough bankroll to justify putting too much on 800-1 shots, it does matter where you are: WH anything from 4 to 7 teams is good, South Point would only bet 5 to 7 teams, Coast I would only bet 5 teams. I would say the best thing to do is calculate the correct Kelly wager based on the top three or four games, then take half that much and round robin as many +EV plays as possible, in those ranges listed
There was both Pittsburgh +3.5 and Baltimore -2.5, so perfect start to the week. There is also Oakland -2.5 and San Diego -6.5, then tease Green Bay to -1 and get rich hitting middles
