Rating Pitchers Question

Fairly often you will see an MLB pitcher with a great ERA but a poor won/loss record usually because of lack of offensive support. You will also see fairly often a pitcher with a poor ERA but an excellent won/loss record usually because he has had very strong hitting behind him in the games he has won. So, how do you rate these types of pitchers? If a pitcher has a great ERA but a poor won/loss record do you say he is an excellent pitcher and can't be blamed for losing games? Or do you take credit away from him because he has lost games. And if a pitcher has a great won/loss record but a poor ERA do you say that that means his is not a very good pitcher and has just been lucky. Or do you say yes he is an excellent pitcher because he wins despite his ERA?

My opinions are generally steered by WAR or FIP stats. They're not perfect, but they are a little more encompassing than ERA.

steeldco nailed it

It's also important to know if they are being rated based on what they have done, or what they are expected to do. There is a huge difference. In the former, ERA is an ok indicator, ERA+ even better; IP, and other information is needed to come up with anything close to an accurate rating (Billy McCool had a lower ERA than Greg Maddux; Ron Guidry had a better winning percentage). If the latter, ERA is again ok, but there are other things much better; age and pitch counts should also be given significant consideration at times.

In either case won-loss record adds almost nothing. The pitcher is only one player who effects only one side of the game. There are eight others who effect both sides

Yep. Drew Hutchison of the Jays is a great example and may sport a 5.42 ERA and a 10-2 record, possibly because of the 8+ runs he gets in run support. Put Drew in Tampa and you are looking at the opposite 2-10 record with the same ERA.

ERA, WHIP, FiP, xFip are primary methods to measure a starter's worth. Win-Loss means nothing.

Quote: boymimbo

Yep. Drew Hutchison of the Jays is a great example and may sport a 5.42 ERA and a 10-2 record, possibly because of the 8+ runs he gets in run support. Put Drew in Tampa and you are looking at the opposite 2-10 record with the same ERA.

ERA, WHIP, FiP, xFip are primary methods to measure a starter's worth. Win-Loss means nothing.

Drew Hutchison at 10-2 has an 83% win % whereas the Jays have only a 52% win %. So if win/loss means nothing then it would have to mean that basically he has just been lucky to have gotten more offensive support then average for the Jays. Would that be correct to say? That basically he has just been lucky?

Luck's a factor. He might also have had some terrible outings, blowing up his averages, and then a bunch of solid ones.

The advanced stats mentioned are the best indicators of luck. But all of that is baked into existing lines.

I'd disregard W-L for gambling purposes, though I rarely bet on individual baseball games.

Quote: lilredrooster

That basically he has just been lucky?

Last year he had a losing record despite playing for a team that had a winning record.

While he has given up more runs than average, the Blue Jays have done a below average job of turning the balls he puts into play into outs.

Perhaps his luck is mostly balancing out. Which is what happens to most players over the span of their careers

A great bullpen is also an important key to pitchers getting wins
A good pictcher might not have a good win loss ratio due to a crummy bullpen.