First Saturday in May

Quote: DrawingDead

So was I. I get the feeling they may have been scratching for the last addition or two to replace those that have been left by the side of the road. But, I understand he did just put in a fast workout (I don't know how hard he was pushed to do it) and McLaughlin is planning to run him in the Wood. Maybe he should pray for snow in Queens on the first Saturday in April.

Frosted may be the only Grey/Roan left competing for the Derby. I could be wrong, but the only other I can think of is Mr. Jordan. He is actually making his return to racing in the 7 furlong Tamarac Stakes @ Gulfstream 2/27 (Competitive Edge is also running in the race).

Quote: DrawingDead

I've edited the list above to include my AWD figures.

Thanks yet again. Good to see most of the new shooters are well suited (7.3+) for the Derby distance.

Quote: Tomspur

-snip-
I have already backed Mubtaahij for the Derby so i hope he can win or run 2nd to at least have a shot at the roses.....

Me too. I certainly hope all goes smoothly for him. DD's AWD on him is very impressive. On DRF he is listed as the morning line favorite @ 5/2.

A big high quality card card all day at Gulfstream on Saturday, as you'd expect when they close out their main meet before the top stables move their best stock to Keeneland, New York, and other venues. The Florida Derby goes as race #14 (!!!) scheduled at 3:48 Pacific, and the morning line has Upstart listed as the favorite, followed by Itsaknockout, then Materiality, Ami's Flatter, and the rest. I've appended my AWD calculation for the pedigree of each since there's a little interest in that:

1 - Ami's Flatter 8-1 (7.1f)
2 - Jack Tripp 20-1 (6.9f)
3 - Indianaughty 20-1 (6.6f)
4 - Itsaknockout 2-1 (7.5f)
5 - Quimet 20-1 20-1 (7.4f)*
6 - My Point Exactly 30-1 (7.1f)
7 - Materiality 7-2 (7.5f)
8 - Dekabrist 30-1 (7.3f)
9 - Upstart 8-5 (6.9f)

This morning line makes solid sense to me off what they've done to date, and is about what I suspect the tote board will probably look like when they go to post. But I prefer Materiality here as I think he has more potential upside for continued development to find his ceiling in both distance and class.

*And Quimet provides an outstanding example of why numbers generated to model living creatures should not be invested with the illusion of magical properties, and why I don't do things like carry it beyond one decimal place creating the illusion of more certainty & precision where none really exists. I only bothered to make the calculation for Quimet because I was posting this here. I don't give a flying fork that his pedigree comes out to an AWD of 7.4f; I wouldn't bet a Nick Zito trainee to make it to my mailbox by Tuesday if it was named Secretariat, and if Zito wins either this Derby or the Kentucky one this year it will be time for me to switch to baccarat handicapping, roulette wheel influencing, and creating a website peddling Dead's Magic Mojo Dust.

Here again are the most recent relevant races for the top contenders:

2/21, Fountain of Youth, Grade 2, 1-1/16 miles (Upstart, Itsaknockout, Ami's Flatter, Frosted & co.):


FoY "head-on" view of stretch run leading to disqualification of Upstart:


3/6, Islamorada "listed" $60k stakes, 1-1/8 miles (Materiality, Quimet, Stanford, etc.):

Quote: DrawingDead

-snip-
1 - Ami's Flatter 8-1 (7.1f)
2 - Jack Tripp 20-1 (6.9f)
3 - Indianaughty 20-1 (6.6f)
4 - Itsaknockout 2-1 (7.5f)
5 - Quimet 20-1 20-1 (7.4f)*
6 - My Point Exactly 30-1 (7.1f)
7 - Materiality 7-2 (7.5f)
8 - Dekabrist 30-1 (7.3f)
9 - Upstart 8-5 (6.9f)
-snip-

The Florida Derby will finally let everyone move on from the Fountain Of Youth final time "mystery". I have one big question: How will the track play as a result of the FOY? Could a front runner steal this one if they soup up the track? On paper there is not much speed in this event. A bold front running move may provide an upset. Watching the earlier dirt races will be helpful if one wants to bet this race. With even weights in the race (122lbs), I will go with Upstart in this spot. Materiality is on bounce "watch" coming off only his second start 3 weeks ago after a big Beyer and nice race time.
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In other 3yo news:
Ghost Bay is running Saturday @ Laurel, so he will not be able to make the Derby. He may be one to watch for the Preakness @ Pimlico in his home state of Maryland.

Quote: Keeneone

Frosted may be the only Grey/Roan left competing for the Derby. I could be wrong, but the only other I can think of is Mr. Jordan.

I have two things to say about that: Pepper Roani.

Quote: DrawingDead

I have two things to say about that: Pepper Roani.

Yes. Completely forgot about him. 2nd to Royal Son in the John B @ Turfway. He shows only one recent workout (3/24) since the race. Maybe he will go in the Blue Grass Stakes.

^Probably. You may have noticed from that published 5f drill that they have him working at Churchill.

Quote: DrawingDead

-snip-
While I'm looking through it, some of the other W.H. lines that have had some interest from me and/or others here are: Cyrus Alexander 40/1, Gold Shield 100/1, Indianaughty 100/1, Maftool 100/1, Unrivaled 100/1. And since they just now got around to taking down their 20/1 number for Texas Red, I'm declaring Jess's Dream the winner of the ridiculous sucker bet trophy; you can still have him at the amazing price of 75/1.
-snip-

Bolding mine.
I have been wondering where these 2 would show up next. I can not find any hints on the interwebs. Maybe Cyrus in the Santa Anita Derby/Arkansas Derby and Gold Shield in the Wood Memorial? Gold Shield has not raced in over 6 weeks, but does have 4 workouts. Cyrus has the foundation and breeding to compete, but needs the Derby points. We should find out soon if these 2 will be running in a big stakes race. For the last couple of days I have been trying to find the "late" arriving horse that has a realistic shot in a final prep and then the Derby. Stanford sort of fits this profile and could be a factor. There just has to be a futures listed horse out there waiting to show up with great odds right now.

Quote: Keeneone

Quote: DrawingDead

-snip-
While I'm looking through it, some of the other W.H. lines that have had some interest from me and/or others here are: Cyrus Alexander 40/1, Gold Shield 100/1, Indianaughty 100/1, Maftool 100/1, Unrivaled 100/1. And since they just now got around to taking down their 20/1 number for Texas Red, I'm declaring Jess's Dream the winner of the ridiculous sucker bet trophy; you can still have him at the amazing price of 75/1.
-snip-

Bolding mine.
I have been wondering where these 2 would show up next. I can not find any hints on the interwebs. Maybe Cyrus in the Santa Anita Derby/Arkansas Derby and Gold Shield in the Wood Memorial? Gold Shield has not raced in over 6 weeks, but does have 4 workouts. Cyrus has the foundation and breeding to compete, but needs the Derby points. We should find out soon if these 2 will be running in a big stakes race. For the last couple of days I have been trying to find the "late" arriving horse that has a realistic shot in a final prep and then the Derby. Stanford sort of fits this profile and could be a factor. There just has to be a futures listed horse out there waiting to show up with great odds right now.

If you really want a new face, here's one you could watch for: Comfort. He was purchased privately after an impressive maiden win at Fair Grounds & promptly moved from the barn of Pavel Vashchenko in New Orleans to the impoverished little Pletcher stable, and he's since had four works for The Toddster in Florida. I don't know how realistic he may or might not be in one of the big preps (which are just about the only kind still left of course) off a 1m-70y MSW win, but I understand they have recently nominated him for the Derby & 3 y/o classics. I don't know who, if anyone, might have added him in their future book. Wynn, perhaps? Should be a big price from anyone who does quote a line on him.

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/thoroughbred-racing/eclipse-thoroughbred-partners-purchase-maiden-winner-comfort/

http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=9330703&registry=T

I don't know what has become of Christophe Clement's Tam O' Shanter. I think he was still being offered at 125/1 from Wm. Hill if I remember correctly. But no public works have been showing since his allowance win at Tampa on Feb. 14, so I assume he's really out of this picture.

Quote: Keeneone

I agree. My Johnny Be Good had been competitive in his races up until his last. If you can look past the Tampa Bay Derby, he is a decent sort. It is interesting his connections will ship him out on what I assume is an expensive/taxing trip. Granted it is a 2 million dollar race, and if he somehow manages a 3rd place finish (or better) he may have the points (20 for 3rd place) to Run for the Roses. It seems a tall order to succeed in the UAE Derby, but we won't know until they run the race.

At the end of this Blood-Horse article on him in Dubai they've posted video of their interview with his owner:

Casners Aim to Add Chapter to Dubai Success

And listening to it, I'm of the opinion that part of the reason for taking him there is probably just that they get a thrill out of going there for it with all the big to-do that comes with their status as one of the owners involved in it. And that will probably be at least part of the real motivation for the presence of at least half the field in Louisville in five weeks, IMO.

I get 7.1f for his pedigree.

I love American Pharoah. But I don't love him this much. He's currently 3-1!

The list of late nominations from owners who just coughed up an extra $6k to make them Derby eligible:

Bridget's Big Luvy
Comfort
Divining Rod
Dubai Sky
I Spent It
Mr. Jordan
Pepper Roani
Tiz Shea D
Two Weeks Off

Quote: FinsRule

I love American Pharoah. But I don't love him this much. He's currently 3-1!

Sheesh. I can't believe he'll stay there. Even if one has the opinion he's a great colt and you're very sure of it, when you add the risk with any horse in training staying completely healthy for over a month on top of the problem anyone has needing a bit of luck on raceday to get a decent trip in a 20 horse field, and 3/1 five weeks out is just: yikes! Materiality has been all over the place on the CD Future Pool tote board, opening all the way down near 10/1, now drifted up over 20/1...

I won't start to believe any number I see for anything in this pool until at least tomorrow evening when there will be a lot more liquid market in this. There's only $46k in the win pool tonight. They should get something close to ten times that before it closes. Wait 'till the money flows after the major events tomorrow. If someone wins either of them decisively with a visually impressive finish, then whoosh goes the money. Especially if that happens in Florida, where they may have a live gate headcount of near 40,000 people on-track freshly juiced up about it.

Quote: DrawingDead

If you really want a new face, here's one you could watch for: Comfort. He was purchased privately after an impressive maiden win at Fair Grounds & promptly moved from the barn of Pavel Vashchenko in New Orleans to the impoverished little Pletcher stable, and he's since had four works for The Toddster in Florida. I don't know how realistic he may or might not be in one of the big preps (which are just about the only kind still left of course) off a 1m-70y MSW win, but I understand they have recently nominated him for the Derby & 3 y/o classics. I don't know who, if anyone, might have added him in their future book. Wynn, perhaps? Should be a big price from anyone who does quote a line on him.

Re: Comfort
Thanks for mentioning him. He burned up some cash in his first 2 turf starts and then turned it around on the dirt in his 3rd start. I actually watched his maiden breaker race live. Well, I was really watching Hottap (mentioned earlier in the thread) in the same race. Comfort looked good and is lightly raced. He is as "live" as any other longshot we have mentioned.
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Tam O' Shanter I have heard nothing about.
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I was out and about today when I noticed a Kentucky Derby pool sheet @ Sunset Station. I asked the manager about the Churchill Downs pool and he stated the issues were resolved before the 3rd pool went live. I may have missed DD mention this (and I apologize if true) but I was pleasantly surprised. I will now take a closer look at the last exacta future opportunities over the next few days.

Quote: Keeneone

I was out and about today when I noticed a Kentucky Derby pool sheet @ Sunset Station. I asked the manager about the Churchill Downs pool and he stated the issues were resolved before the 3rd pool went live. I may have missed DD mention this (and I apologize if true) but I was pleasantly surprised. I will now take a closer look at the last exacta future opportunities over the next few days.

Thanks for bringing that to our attention. I didn't mention that it was resolved, because I wasn't aware of it. After both the first two pools were unavailable from Las Vegas books I quit checking, and just went with my long-distance arrangements that I made to work around it (don't ask).

So, now we really can get a bet down in a Las Vegas casino? Free at last, free at last...

Quote: DrawingDead

Thanks for bringing that to our attention. I didn't mention that it was resolved, because I wasn't aware of it. After both the first two pools were unavailable from Las Vegas books I quit checking, and just went with my long-distance arrangements that I made to work around it (don't ask).

So, now we really can get a bet down in a Las Vegas casino? Free at last, free at last...

Perfect song for this. It will be nice to consider a few other bets without having to go through other channels. Now I need to do some more work this weekend to find the value (which you previously posted about) in the exacta pool. I would love to get a little more $ on Carpe Diem, and the exacta is the way to go right now.
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Golden Barows (KY bred Tapit colt) is getting a bit of "pub" coming into the UAE Derby. I have not watched his Japan races, but some have stated he may go favored in the race. I just hope I can wake up early enough for the race (~6:45am PST).

Tom Amoss interview about War Story in the LA Derby:

Come on Hanna, spit out the gum before the interview....
I love the pretty white blaze on WS's face.

Louisian Derby, I'm guessing

1. War Story
2. Keen Ice
3. Stanford
4. St. Joe Bay

If Robbie can keep St Joe Bay off of the pace, I think he'll have a good shot at 2nd or 3rd. Stanford and Mr. Z look like they will be battling it out, and if St. Joe Bay goes out front as well, the pace could get moving. That's good news for War Story and Keen Ice.

For the Florida Derby, I'll guess

1. Upstart
2. Ami's Flatter
3. ItsaKnockout
4. Indianaughty

I think Ami's Flatter is interesting here, coming off the pace in a race where leaders Upstart, It'saKnockout haven't yet gone the distance before.

UAE Derby

Haven't a clue. But, I agree, it will be nice to have My Johnny Be Good as a measuring stick there.

Ok so Mubtaahij smashed them by about 7 lengths and he must have beaten Johnny be Good by about 30 lengths.

Not sure what that means for the collateral form lines.......

Mike de Kock better learn the words to Old Kentucky Home!!!!

Quote: Tomspur

Ok so Mubtaahij smashed them by about 7 lengths and he must have beaten Johnny be Good by about 30 lengths.

Not sure what that means for the collateral form lines.......

Mike de Kock better learn the words to Old Kentucky Home!!!!

I'm going to grab mubtaahij with some exactas here. Don't know if he beat anything, but it looked good

Quote: Tomspur

Ok so Mubtaahij smashed them by about 7 lengths and he must have beaten Johnny be Good by about 30 lengths.

Not sure what that means for the collateral form lines.......

Mike de Kock better learn the words to Old Kentucky Home!!!!

Mubtaahij certainly looked special today. He won as he pleased. Hopefully he comes out of it great and ships over soon.

2015 UAE Derby:

So should horses get there early and settle in? I guess there is some quarantine issues. Anybody have any details about how long and where they may be in quarantine?

That was a fun way to start the day.

I'm not inclined to take a lot from the margin at the wire as he drew away, since comparison of both the time and those who had some run and hit the board behind after trying to stay with him is unknowable, or at least unknown to me. And I don't think Whatshisname who came over from the US with Eoin Harty ever put in enough of a run for me to make use of his presence that way.

But I have to really like the way he did it. The ability to stalk (an apparently) hotly contested pace while in amongst horses and taking kickback in the face and then promptly pounce when called upon by the rider is ideal for his next task. And based on both pedigree and his way of going there's every reason to me to think he should have a fine chance of staying 10 furlongs on the Churchill main track.

The remark above about hoping to see him come over "soon" actually matters to me in a substantive way, rather than late. Some other past international Derby runners have had their best chances compromised by an insistence on shipping in too close to the race, in my opinion, so I'll be interested in hearing some of those nitty gritty details of their plans as they develop.

I don't know what I think fair value odds on him should be, but I'm convinced to take him quite seriously. That T.S. future book ticket sure looks like better than merely 'good' value. And now that would be the sound of squealing tires in the distance as Tomspur's better half embarks on some seriously intensive window shopping.

Quote: DrawingDead

That was a fun way to start the day.

I'm not inclined to take a lot from the margin at the wire as he drew away, since comparison of both the time and those who had some run and hit the board behind after trying to stay with him is unknowable, or at least unknown to me. And I don't think Whatshisname who came over from the US with Eoin Harty ever put in enough of a run for me to make use of his presence that way.

But I have to really like the way he did it. The ability to stalk (an apparently) hotly contested pace while in amongst horses and taking kickback in the face and then promptly pounce when called upon by the rider is ideal for his next task. And based on both pedigree and his way of going there's every reason to me to think he should have a fine chance of staying 10 furlongs on the Churchill main track.

The remark above about hoping to see him come over "soon" actually matters to me in a substantive way, rather than late. Some other past international Derby runners have had their best chances compromised by an insistence on shipping in too close to the race, in my opinion, so I'll be interested in hearing some of those nitty gritty details of their plans as they develop.

I don't know what I think fair value odds on him should be, but I'm convinced to take him quite seriously. That T.S. future book ticket sure looks like better than merely 'good' value. And now that would be the sound of squealing tires in the distance as Tomspur's better half embarks on some seriously intensive window shopping.

She says she is getting tiles for the floors :)

I do have one bigger wager than Mubtaahij though on Unrivaled. He will have to run very well next week in the blue Grass to get a run though and it may be a bridge too far......We will see.

I see Mubtaahij is now 14/1 on the overseas markets for the Derby. Guess you won't get much more than that for the futures market in Vegas now too.

Saturday March 28, 2015 - Fairgrounds - Louisiana Derby Grade 2 (1^1/8mile - 750k)

International Star - Won again. Completed the Louisiana "triple crown" sweep.
Stanford - 2nd. almost stole this on the front end.
War Story - 3rd.

Florida Derby:
Materiality - Won in another slowish time for Gulfstream. 3 seconds slower than his last stakes win @ the same distance.
Upstart - 2nd after a long stretch duel.
Ami's Flatter - Ran a distant 3rd.



-I have a question. Are the horses coming out of the Florida preps really top tier? The times seem to be slow due to track conditions. If so, are these runners actually getting a better than normal foundation because of the conditions? This is a really hard question to answer.

Pardon me for going back to things that are now becoming old news in interwebz chatter time; I have all these pesky stacks of money to shovel out from under. I spend a lot of time mostly arriving at decisions to NOT bet, race after race after race, pass, pass, pass, and try to hit them hard when I eventually do find what I'm after. I liked Materiality a lot in that spot, so that was one of those.

[/end gloat]

Quote: Tomspur

So should horses get there early and settle in? I guess there is some quarantine issues. Anybody have any details about how long and where they may be in quarantine?

Yes he'll have to spend some time in quarantine immediately on 'wheels down' amounting to about two or three days or so if I recall correctly. Afterward, he's also required by special security protocols for this race to be stabled on the grounds in a special stakes barn area for over three days before the race under continuous human and electronic surveillance, intended to prevent some forms of doping and other skulduggery. He could possibly ship over as late as the beginning of the same week as the race, and this is what some European entrants have done in the past.

I think it is a very bad idea to do it that way. I think we both have a bit of experience with long international flights of 16+ hours across many time zones, and the disruptive effects that can have on mind and body for a while. Furthermore, there are some differences at the starting gate and more significantly with the turns, among other things. In my opinion to have his best chance they'd be wise to ship in at least two weeks or so in advance to clear quarantine, adjust, school at the gate a little, and breeze around the turns, instead of what others have done when coming to this race from the other side of the globe.

Quote: Keeneone

...The times seem to be slow due to track conditions...

That's what speed figures and variants attempt to answer, and Beyer has given the race a figure of 110. To win the Derby will probably require running that race about 110-ish this year. In looking at races throughout the whole card, the main track surface was extremely deep and tiring Saturday even for the relatively slow surface at GP; those nominally 'slow' times all day were from fast racehorses, and it was also a 'dead rail' that favored runners that were out in the middle of the track & disadvantaged those on the inside. For a quick glance, there were three two-turn races on the main (dirt) track at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, all of them stakes races. The 5th was a Grade 3 for older horses at 1-3/16th miles, the 12th was the Florida Oaks at 1-1/16 miles, and the 14th was of course the Florida Derby. Here are the six furlong and mile splits and Beyer speed figures for the final time (I rounded digital times from Equibase and these may not precisely match the DRF PPs):

Race #05: 1:13⁴ 1:38⁴ BSF 109
Race #12: 1:13³ 1:40³ BSF 89
Race #14: 1:12³ 1:38³ BSF 110

If one prefers to consider context of prior performances with others on other circuits rather than using variants to arrive at speed figures, recall that Upstart, among other things, overcame a poor trip to be a very good 3rd in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile behind Texas Red and ahead of Mr. Z and others at Santa Anita, after his 2nd in the Champagne at Saratoga well ahead of El Kabeir & The Truth or Else among others. Note International Star just managed to get by Stanford in deep stretch in the Louisiana Derby after Materiality blew by Stanford in their prior race at Gulfstream at 1-1/8 miles in 1:49².

The Louisiana Derby got a BSF of 98. I think that may be just a little generous, but overall I think the numbers are probably about right.

On Saturday several hours before they went to post for the Florida Derby but long after the UAE Derby was in the books, I saw Mubtaahij was listed at fixed odds of 20/1 from William Hill, and they still had Materiality up at 40/1. When I went to take another bite of Materiality at that price via their mobile app it returned a message saying something like "your wager has not been accepted due to exceeding the [something] risk threshold of [something or other] if you wish to request supervisor review and approval of your wager request [blah blah something]..." Screw that. I backed out of it, and after reducing the modest amount to an even smaller figure was able to make a further addition to my Materiality position before the Florida Derby, now giving me two pieces of him at 45/1 & 40/1.

At 20/1 Mubtaahij is the shortest price I've considered for any future wager, but I went ahead and added him to my future book stable, for an amount that is smaller than any of the other straight win future book interests I have. That one went through without setting off any sirens or summoning black helicopters with flashing blue & red lights.

If they don't mind keeping stale lines I don't mind buying a few of them, and if Bill Hill wishes to sell me some twenty dollar bills for $12.95 I'm probably willing to buy those too. I see Mubtaahij is currently (about 1:45pm Pacific) sitting at 8/1 and Materiality is at 12/1 in Churchill's parimutual pool. I've used Pool #4 to do some additional arbitrage again among multiple wagering interests with some of the exactas in that, but other than that did nothing further with any straight win bets in this final parimutual future pool.

My straight win Derby future stable is now: Bolo, Carpe Diem, Far From Over, Frosted, Khozan, Imperia, Itsaknockout, Lord Nelson, Materiality, Mubtaahij. The median odds on the various tickets is 35/1, now ranging from a low of 20/1 up to 100/1. The largest position in total investment is on Carpe Diem, and the biggest potential return is Bolo.

Quote: DrawingDead

Pardon me for going back to things that are now becoming old news in interwebz chatter time; I have all these pesky stacks of money to shovel out from under. I spend a lot of time mostly arriving at decisions to NOT bet, race after race after race, pass, pass, pass, and try to hit them hard when I eventually do find what I'm after. I liked Materiality a lot in that spot, so that was one of those.
[/end gloat]

Good to hear you won on him. I had the small late pick3 and double.

Quote: DrawingDead

Yes he'll have to spend some time in quarantine immediately on 'wheels down' amounting to about two or three days or so if I recall correctly. Afterward, he's also required by special security protocols for this race to be stabled on the grounds in a special stakes barn area for over three days before the race under continuous human and electronic surveillance, intended to prevent some forms of doping and other skulduggery. He could possibly ship over as late as the beginning of the same week as the race, and this is what some European entrants have done in the past.

I think it is a very bad idea to do it that way. I think we both have a bit of experience with long international flights of 16+ hours across many time zones, and the disruptive effects that can have on mind and body for a while. Furthermore, there are some differences at the starting gate and more significantly with the turns, among other things. In my opinion to have his best chance they'd be wise to ship in at least two weeks or so in advance to clear quarantine, adjust, school at the gate a little, and breeze around the turns, instead of what others have done when coming to this race from the other side of the globe.

According to Pat Cumming's (covers Dubai Racing) Twitter account, Mubtaahij is booked to fly out in about 2 weeks:
https://twitter.com/DubaiRaceNight
He also states CaliChrome is headed to Royal Ascot.
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I decided not to make any more wagers (only considered a few exactas) even with access to the 4th future pool. When we get this close to race day, I begin to lose interest in early wagering. Part of me just wants to wait and see who actually makes the gate. I will still consider one or two (longshots) depending on who is actually entered in the next 4 big preps.
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Not really sure Stanford is headed to Louisville yet (although he likely has the points), but if you get a chance to punch up his AWD, I would appreciate it.
Malibu Moon (AP Indy) out of a Distorted Humor mare. Sounds promising for classic distances.

Quote: Keeneone

According to Pat Cumming's (covers Dubai Racing) Twitter account, Mubtaahij is booked to fly out in about 2 weeks:
https://twitter.com/DubaiRaceNight

Thanks for that info. Seems like a very sound plan for his itinerary to me. I also learned this little tidbit on that Twitter feed:

Quote: Pat Cummings @DubaiRaceNight

Mubtaahij means cheery, or elated, in Arabic.

Quote: Keeneone

Not really sure Stanford is headed to Louisville yet (although he likely has the points), but if you get a chance to punch up his AWD, I would appreciate it.
Malibu Moon (AP Indy) out of a Distorted Humor mare. Sounds promising for classic distances.

At first glance I'd have thought so too, but when evaluating the field for the race at Fair Grounds I got him at just a tad over 7.0f AWD, which to me is pretty marginal for going much beyond middle distances and into classics of 1-1/4m and beyond. If he'd won the Louisiana Derby by open lengths I still wouldn't be eager to put him on any of my future book tickets, for that reason. I've repeatedly heard chatter for months to the effect that Pletcher and the owners have always been very high on him, and though being Grade 2 placed isn't half bad at all, I'd guess he hasn't quite run to their high expectation yet.

By the way, if that one ever finds his way onto a synthetic surface, or a very wet "off" track, lookout. His pedigree data top & bottom says "ka-boom!" for doing that.

Quote: DrawingDead

-snip-
At first glance I'd have thought so too, but when evaluating the field for the race at Fair Grounds I got him at just a tad over 7.0f AWD, which to me is pretty marginal for going much beyond middle distances and into classics of 1-1/4m and beyond. If he'd won the Louisiana Derby by open lengths I still wouldn't be eager to put him on any of my future book tickets, for that reason. I've repeatedly heard chatter for months to the effect that Pletcher and the owners have always been very high on him, and though being Grade 2 placed isn't half bad at all, I'd guess he hasn't quite run to their high expectation yet.
By the way, if that one ever finds his way onto a synthetic surface, or a very wet "off" track, lookout. His pedigree data top & bottom says "ka-boom!" for doing that.

Thanks for the AWD on Stanford. He has been second twice to "Big" Derby prep winners, is lightly raced, has 2 - 1^1/8mile races, and could certainly improve. I guess if he goes into the gate and the CD track is a swamp, we can consider him.
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I found another grey I previously missed: Gorgeous Bird



He is likely to run in the Bluegrass Stakes @ Keeneland.

Just because I know everybody here loves Andy Beyer's figures so much:

Mubtaahij joins the Derby fray

Quote: Jay Privman @Daily Racing Form

Mubtaahij received an estimated Beyer Speed Figure of 95 for the UAE Derby. Andrew Beyer and his associates, who compile the figures, do not regularly make numbers for Meydan but were able to make estimated figures for Saturday’s card because they could extrapolate from the known norm for American-based dirt horses in other races, such as California Chrome and Lea in the Dubai World Cup and Secret Circle in the Golden Shaheen...

Privman's piece includes a number of issues that have been discussed here, including the running times & condition of the main track at Gulfstream on Saturday, and Mubtaahij's travel schedule. It does require a DRF account log-in to read the entire article. I think it is well worth reading, more so than most. It quotes Michael de Kock stating that he has scheduled Mubtaahij to fly in on April 16th, and discusses a very dry surface and the Gulfstream maintenance crew's unsuccessful efforts to hydrate it as the cause of exceptionally slow times throughout the long card at GP. Oh, and in less important matters, Rick Violette was feeling really cheesed off at the track & the stewards.

I think this Saturday's edition of the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct just became a trivia contest:

Fracture Knocks Far From Over Off Derby Trail

Read more on BloodHorse.com: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/90997/fracture-knocks-far-from-over-off-derby-trail#ixzz3VyuO448F

He was among the top 5 of those potentially able to actually win this this thing in Louisville in my estimation. And that would be why I never go into single digit or even low double digit odds on future wagers. Which translates to > $300 or so on the 'will-pay' of any single cold exacta combination. Only 4+ weeks left, but there will still be more knocked out of training. There always are.

ADDENDUM: Re-reviewing my future book wagers, I consider 40% of them to be very live, 40% more are technically live but realistically in some stage of wagering life-support from which I really don't expect them to make the gate for this, and 20% are definitely irreversibly declared out. At about a month out from the event, to me that's below average performance for my somewhat larger than normal Derby future book stable this year, though not by a lot. But we'll see about those last four words in about five and a half days.

RE-EDIT, to add some little stuff of a miscellaneous nature:

A late Derby nominee named Bidget's Big Luvy will be going in the Arkansas Derby a week from Saturday, according to his trainer (J.C. Englehart) in order to seek Kentucky Derby qualifying points, after decisively winning a "listed" (ungraded) $100k stakes at 9 furlongs at Laurel. His time in that was given a Beyer figure of 87, and I have him at an AWD of 7.2f, with above average (but not spectacular) wet track tendencies. He was previously 5th of 6 in the Hutchison behind Barbados, but did have some trouble in that race. He won't have any of my money.

Bolo just worked while being clocked at 4f in 46⁴. I didn't see the work to have an opinion of how he went about it. I'd be tempted to say that was too much, too fast too close to Saturday, and not a good thing, but it was not even a "bullet" as it was 3rd of 31 working that distance at Santa Anita this morning. First was a John Sadler colt named Zinvarn that I know nothing about, 2nd was the older multiple graded stakes winner Warren's Veneda, and 4th fastest was Cross the Line, a graded stakes placed colt (on Tapeta at Golden Gate in the El Camino Real - AWD 6.8f) from Hollendorfer's stable who will also be going in the Santa Anita Derby on Saturday. So, I guess the track is very quick, and Carla Gaines has him quite fit.

Saturday April 4, 2015 - Keeneland - Blue Grass Stakes Grade 1 (1^1/8mile - 1 Million)

1 - Ocho Ocho Ocho - 1st,2nd,3rd Derby pool future horse.
2 - Gorgeous Bird - 2nd Derby pool future horse.
3 - Pepper Roani
4 - Unrivaled
5 - Carpe Diem - 1st,2nd,3rd,4th Derby pool future horse.
6 - Frammento
7 - Classy Class - 1st Derby pool future horse.
8 - Danzig Moon - 3rd Derby pool future horse.

-This is a talented field of runners. Carpe Diem is Stakes proven over the course and is strictly the one to beat. This is his 2nd start of the year. After him....I have no idea.

Keeneland, Keeneland, racing horses on that most hallowed beautiful classy ground of KEENELAND, yippee! Next someone will try to claim that the Cardinals are about to start playing baseball, for reals, and I wouldn't be able to stand that much good news in one week.

So long as there's a bit of interest in my AWD pedigree numbers I'm happy to post them here for whatever use someone in this thread may find, particularly for a field in a race I'm working on anyways, so I've added them in an edit before each of the eight Bluegrass entries. I've also added what their pedigree data indicates to me about their likely ability to handle a wet "off" track; I decided to translate that to easily an easily digestible letter grade here from the 0-5 numerical output I have for each of them on that question. I understand there's some chance of a shower in Lexington, though so far not too high of a probability from the forecasts I've looked at.

Quote: Keeneone

Saturday April 4, 2015 - Keeneland - Blue Grass Stakes Grade 1 (1^1/8mile - 1 Million)

*EDIT for:
[Dist & Mud] - by DD
[7.3f & B- ] 1 - Ocho Ocho Ocho - 1st,2nd,3rd Derby pool future horse.
[7.0f & A- ] 2 - Gorgeous Bird - 2nd Derby pool future horse.
[6.9f & B+] 3 - Pepper Roani
[7.4f & B+] 4 - Unrivaled
[7.9f & B- ] 5 - Carpe Diem - 1st,2nd,3rd,4th Derby pool future horse.
[7.0f & A- ] 6 - Frammento
[7.4f & B+] 7 - Classy Class - 1st Derby pool future horse.
[7.4f & B+] 8 - Danzig Moon - 3rd Derby pool future horse.

-This is a talented field of runners. Carpe Diem is Stakes proven over the course and is strictly the one to beat. This is his 2nd start of the year. After him....I have no idea.

RE-EDIT: Corrected numbers for Unrivaled with updated data.

And what are the chances of me finding a wagering pool that offers a sensible way to actually play Carpe Diem here? Eh. I seem to suck at forecasting the tote board before I see some of the money flows. Of course he doesn't need the points; he needs to continue to progress with distance & maturity to be ready for about another 6 lengths worth of stepping forward compared to his classmates when another month older and with another big furlong. Getting that last one of the ten at Churchill is a lot bigger and harder deal for everyone in it than handling each earlier increment of the added 8ths & fractions thereof throughout their preparation.

I haven't been able to come up with a clue as to what happened to Danzig Moon in his last. He went into it looking quite promising to me, and laid a large egg. I want a colt named Pepper Roani to make the gate at Churchill. Just because he's named Pepper Roani. I can be silly that way if I wanna.

Quote: DrawingDead

-snip-
And what are the chances of me finding a wagering pool that offers a sensible way to actually play Carpe Diem here? Eh. I seem to suck at forecasting the tote board before I see some of the money flows. Of course he doesn't need the points; he needs to continue to progress with distance & maturity to be ready for about another 6 lengths worth of stepping forward compared to his classmates when another month older and with another big furlong. Getting that last one of the ten at Churchill is a lot bigger and harder deal for everyone in it than handling each increment of the added 8ths throughout their preparation.

I haven't been able to come up with a clue as to what happened to Danzig Moon in his last. He went into it looking quite promising to me, and laid a large egg. I want a colt named Pepper Roani to make the gate at Churchill. Just because he's named Pepper Roani. I can be silly that way if I wanna.

Wow, great minds think alike....I guess:/
I think CDiem will be bet hard (less than even money). Who could run 2nd or possibly upset him is the question. I was also looking closely at the race and wondering about Danzig Moon. One may be able to get him @ around 85/1+ for the Derby. I like his 2nd @ 1 mile @ CD in the fall. I also find no excuses for his Tampa Bay Derby. He has 2 nice workouts since and is a lightly raced Canadian bred. Can he make up 12+ lengths on CDiem over a new surface....probably not, but maybe second is possible. I sense I may be "pushing it" with Danzig Moon, but he could be sneaky good....

Thanks for the AWDs.

Quote: DrawingDead

Bolo just worked while being clocked at 4f in 46⁴. I didn't see the work to have an opinion of how he went about it. I'd be tempted to say that was too much, too fast too close to Saturday, and not a good thing, but it was not even a "bullet" as it was 3rd of 31 working that distance at Santa Anita this morning. First was a John Sadler colt named Zinvarn that I know nothing about, 2nd was the older multiple graded stakes winner Warren's Veneda, and 4th fastest was Cross the Line, a graded stakes placed colt (on Tapeta at Golden Gate in the El Camino Real - AWD 6.8f) from Hollendorfer's stable who will also be going in the Santa Anita Derby on Saturday. So, I guess the track is very quick, and Carla Gaines has him quite fit.

Even for Santa Anita, sub-47 seconds for 4 furlongs is lightning fast. IIRC, there was some discussion by Carla Gaines of a disrupted training schedule before the San Felipe (rain). Maybe this is an overcompensation for that? I do not think it will be an issue. It probably was a true "blowout" work by a talented horse. I believe he is primed for a great performance and only needs to improve a few lengths at the extended distance. Having Mike Smith back in the irons should not diminish Bolo's chances either.

Is going to be a big Saturday but 8 need unrivaled to win or place in order for him to go to Churchill. I think Carpe diem is going to be tough but once he starts laboring in front, unrivaled will be finishing.

I don't mind that AWD figure of 7.4 either.

Roll on Saturday.

Saturday April 4, 2015 - Aqueduct - Wood Memorial Grade 1 (1^1/8mile - 1 Million)

1 - Tiz Shea D
2 - Toasting Master
3 - Lieutenant Colonel
4 - Frosted - 1st,2nd,4th Derby pool future horse.
5 - El Kabeir - 1st,2nd,3rd,4th Derby pool future horse.
6 - Daredevil - 1st,2nd,3rd,4th Derby pool future horse.
7 - Tencendur

-With the unfortunate injury of Far From Over (my choice for the Wood) I kinda like El Kabier. This race will be run over the Main track @ Aqueduct and not over the inner track (like the previous Aqueduct Derby preps). Over the years the winterized inner track has shown a bias towards front running and speedy pressers. The Main track plays a little more even for the "off-the-pace" types. I am no expert on the AQU surface but I do look for more "off-the-pace" runners when the main track is in use. This is why I liked Far From Over and now El Kabier (if he can repeat his Gotham race). Florida shippers have done well recently (Royal Son,Dubai Sky,Stanford,MadeFromLucky,International Star trains @ GS) so Frosted and Daredevil are interesting additions. I am particularly interested in Frosted's race since he participated in the FOY @ GS. If he wins big in here, he will certainly flatter the Florida contingent (Upstart, Materiality, Itsaknockout) even more.

Saturday April 4, 2015 - Santa Anita - Santa Anita Derby Grade 1 (1^1/8mile - 1 Million)

1 - Dortmund - 1st,2nd,3rd,4th Derby pool future horse. He has pretty much been the Derby favorite since November.
2 - One Lucky Dane
3 - Cross the Line
4 - Bolo - 4th Derby pool future horse.
5 - Prospect Park - 2nd,3rd,4th Derby pool future horse.
6 - Bad Read Sanchez

-Dortmund has done literally nothing wrong and is the deserving favorite. Small field and I am picking Bolo here. 2nd dirt race, blowout work, extended distance, Mike Smith, and a solid pace to run at. An interesting angle (over the years of my limited wagering at Santa Anita) is to bet the other (longer odds) Baffert runner when he enters 2 in a race. That would be One Lucky Dane in here, but he has the look of a rabbit for Dortmund to chase.

-I was disappointed to not see Cyrus Alexander entered. Maybe he will go in the Arkansas Derby or maybe he is not ready (or good enough yet).

Shug McGaughey has entered Gold Shield in race #4 at Aqueduct on the Wood undercard on Saturday, in a first level N1X allowance open to 3Y/Os & up at 9 furlongs. So with four weeks left and no qualifying points he can be effectively eliminated from Derby consideration, regardless of how he performs, though he continues to have a line quoted in some fixed odds future books.

In the quoted post on the Wood below I've inserted the same edits as for the Bluegrass, indicating the AWD of the pedigrees followed by a grade for mud/wet-track tendencies:

Quote: Keeneone

Saturday April 4, 2015 - Aqueduct - Wood Memorial Grade 1 (1^1/8mile - 1 Million)

[Dist & Mud] - edit inserted by DD
[7.7f B+] 1 - Tiz Shea D
[7.0f B .] 2 - Toasting Master
[6.7f A- ] 3 - Lieutenant Colonel
[7.4f A- ] 4 - Frosted - 1st,2nd,4th Derby pool future horse.
[7.2f B- ] 5 - El Kabeir - 1st,2nd,3rd,4th Derby pool future horse.
[7.1f C+] 6 - Daredevil - 1st,2nd,3rd,4th Derby pool future horse.
[7.1f B+] 7 - Tencendur

-With the unfortunate injury of Far From Over (my choice for the Wood) I kinda like El Kabier. This race will be run over the Main track @ Aqueduct and not over the inner track (like the previous Aqueduct Derby preps). Over the years the winterized inner track has shown a bias towards front running and speedy pressers. The Main track plays a little more even for the "off-the-pace" types. I am no expert on the AQU surface but I do look for more "off-the-pace" runners when the main track is in use. This is why I liked Far From Over and now El Kabier (if he can repeat his Gotham race). Florida shippers have done well recently (Royal Son,Dubai Sky,Stanford,MadeFromLucky,International Star trains @ GS) so Frosted and Daredevil are interesting additions. I am particularly interested in Frosted's race since he participated in the FOY @ GS. If he wins big in here, he will certainly flatter the Florida contingent (Upstart, Materiality, Itsaknockout) even more.

And I've inserted AWDs for each below:

Quote: Keeneone

Saturday April 4, 2015 - Santa Anita - Santa Anita Derby Grade 1 (1^1/8mile - 1 Million)

[Dist] - Edit inserted by DD
[7.0f] 1 - Dortmund - 1st,2nd,3rd,4th Derby pool future horse. He has pretty much been the Derby favorite since November.
[7.0f] 2 - One Lucky Dane
[6.8f] 3 - Cross the Line
[7.6f] 4 - Bolo - 4th Derby pool future horse.
[7.2f] 5 - Prospect Park - 2nd,3rd,4th Derby pool future horse.
[7.5f] 6 - Bad Read Sanchez

-Dortmund has done literally nothing wrong and is the deserving favorite. Small field and I am picking Bolo here. 2nd dirt race, blowout work, extended distance, Mike Smith, and a solid pace to run at. An interesting angle (over the years of my limited wagering at Santa Anita) is to bet the other (longer odds) Baffert runner when he enters 2 in a race. That would be One Lucky Dane in here, but he has the look of a rabbit for Dortmund to chase.

-I was disappointed to not see Cyrus Alexander entered. Maybe he will go in the Arkansas Derby or maybe he is not ready (or good enough yet).

Quote: DrawingDead

Shug McGauhey has entered Gold Shield in race #4 at Aqueduct on the Wood undercard on Saturday, in a first level allowance at 9 furlongs. So with four weeks left and no qualifying points he can be effectively eliminated from Derby consideration, regardless of how he performs, though he continues to have a line quoted in some fixed odds future books.

In the quoted post on the Wood below I've inserted the same edits as for the Bluegrass indicating AWD of the pedigrees followed by a grade for mud/wet-track tendencies:

I somehow missed Gold Shield's entry @ AQU. That stinks and is a bit strange. Why run him in a 3 years-old (and up) allowance (82k purse) 9 furlong event and not the Stakes race only for 3 year-olds with a million dollar purse at the same distance/same track/same day? Baffling.
----------

With 3 - 1million dollar races going this weekend we only get a total of 21 runners. You do not have to win one of the three to get into the gate at Churchill Downs. I may have overestimated the level of "Derby fever" owners and trainers get this time of year.
----------


Thank you for the AWDs (and mud grades) on all the weekend runners.

Quote: Keeneone

Saturday April 4, 2015 - Santa Anita - Santa Anita Derby Grade 1 (1^1/8mile - 1 Million)

1 - Dortmund - 1st,2nd,3rd,4th Derby pool future horse. He has pretty much been the Derby favorite since November.
2 - One Lucky Dane
3 - Cross the Line
4 - Bolo - 4th Derby pool future horse.
5 - Prospect Park - 2nd,3rd,4th Derby pool future horse.
6 - Bad Read Sanchez

-Dortmund has done literally nothing wrong and is the deserving favorite. Small field and I am picking Bolo here. 2nd dirt race, blowout work, extended distance, Mike Smith, and a solid pace to run at. An interesting angle (over the years of my limited wagering at Santa Anita) is to bet the other (longer odds) Baffert runner when he enters 2 in a race. That would be One Lucky Dane in here, but he has the look of a rabbit for Dortmund to chase.

-I was disappointed to not see Cyrus Alexander entered. Maybe he will go in the Arkansas Derby or maybe he is not ready (or good enough yet).

If you have $10 to blow - $2 to show on 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 could give you a thrill for about 10 seconds.

Edit - of course I mean $5.80 to blow

For the Santa Anita Derby, I like Dortmund. Prospect Park's people seem to really think they have a shot with the extra distance, but I don't see Dortmund losing on his home turf like that, with One Lucky Dane going to the lead, Martin Garcia and Rafael Bejarano (where do I know that duo from), will probably have the pace all worked out for Dortmunds benefit. So, Prospect Park is starting out with a big disadvantage IMO. I've got the trifecta the same as the last race. I'm guessing.

1. Dortmund
2. Prospect Park
3. Bolo
4. Cross the Line

For the Wood Memorial, I like Daredevil. Daredevil beat El Kabeir by 17 lengths in their first meeting, so I think if he's any kind of healthy, he won't have a problem with this crowd. I'm guessing.

1. Daredevil
2. El Kabeir
3. Frosted
4. Tiz Shea D

For the Bluegrass, Carpe Diem all alone at the finish line. I don't think anyone can run with him here. I'm guessing.

1. Carpe Diem
2. Danzig Moon
3. Classy Class
4. Unrivaled

I'm in two contests today: Twinspires $100 - 10K contest and Derbywars $115 - 5K Contest. I won the $100 entry with a $25 satellite and the $115 with a $29 satellite. Here are my picks (I will change if odds/contest position dictate)

Twinspires - $100
----------------------
AQ 8 - 1 Puca (6/1)
AQ 9 - 6 Final Chapter (12/1)
AQ 10 - 1 Tiz Shea D (8/1)
AQ 11 - 6 Palace (5/1)

KEE 8 - 11 Amelia's Wild Ride (6/1)
KEE 9 - 6 Lovely Maria (7/2)
KEE 10 - 5 Carpe Diem (1/1)
KEE 11 - 7 Groovy A (6/1)

SA 5 - 1 Anxious Times (6/1)
SA 9 - 1 Lutine Belle (12/1)
SA 10 - 4 Ashley Sassy (8/1)
SA 11 - 12 Moulin de Mougin (8/1)

Derby Wars - $115
-----------------------
KEE 7 - 1 I Got it All (5/1)
KEE 8 - 3 Zee Bros (8/1)
KEE 9 - 6 Lovely Maria (7/2)
KEE 10 - 4 Unrivaled (12/1)

AQ 8 - 7 Noble and a Beauty (8/1)
AQ 9 - 4 Easy to Say (15/1)
AQ 10 - 6 Daredevil (9/5)
AQ 11 - 1 Dad's Caps (7/2)

SA 7 - 5 Luminace (5/2)
SA 8 - 4 Bolo (4/1)
SA 9 - 6 Spanish Queen (6/1)
SA 10 - 13 Easter Fever (8/1)

Wish me luck!

In case I win anything today - there's a massive mandatory payout over at Woodbine. Here's my $200 ticket:

8 / 4, 5, 7 / 3-12 / 3-12 / 3-12

Seize the exacta:



I thought that was fun enough, and rewarding, with thanks to Danzig Moon for showing up to get his job done.

And carpe moolah; seize your odds line. No more six page lists of 400+ wagering interests now; both Wynn & William Hill have each radically pared down their future book lists to thirty-something, though not exactly the same ones. Here are the lines they put up yesterday evening after the Wood, Blue Grass, and Santa Anita Derby.

Wynn	Wm Hill	Derby nominee
7/2	4/1	Carpe Diem
9/2	4/1	Dortmund
5/1	7/2	American Pharoah
12/1	12/1	Upstart
12/1	12/1	Materiality
14/1	15/1	Mubtaahij
15/1	12/1	International Star
15/1	10/1	Firing Line
15/1	15/1	Frosted
20/1	16/1	Prospect Park
22/1	14/1	El Kabeir
25/1	30/1	One Lucky Dane
25/1	25/1	Bolo
28/1	50/1	Madefromlucky
30/1	20/1	Far Right
30/1	30/1	War Story
30/1	15/1	Itsaknockout
35/1	35/1	Danzig Moon
40/1	75/1	Bold Conquest
45/1	50/1	Keen Ice
50/1	50/1	Frammento
50/1	40/1	Stanford
50/1	40/1	Tencendur
75/1	25/1	Ocho Ocho Ocho
75/1	40/1	Ami's Flatter
75/1	40/1	Maftool
85/1	n/a	Rock Shandy
125/1	50/1	The Truth Or Else
125/1	n/a	Pain And Misery
150/1	n/a	Firespike
150/1	75/1	Mr. Z
150/1	n/a	Metaboss
150/1	n/a	Divining Rod
150/1	n/a	Tiz Shea D
250/1	n/a	Bridget's Big Luvy
n/a	40/1	Dubai Sky
n/a	75/1	Conquest Typhoon
n/a	75/1	Classy Class

Dubai Sky suffered an injury and is out for the year:

http://www.drf.com/news/dubai-sky-injured-will-miss-rest-year

The Wood Memorial:



The Santa Anita Derby:



The Wood has been given a Beyer speed figure of 103, the Bluegrass got a 95 BSF, and the Santa Anita Derby got a 106. If I take all this at face value, Dortmund certainly looks like the horse that's threatening to assassinate my future book stable, and make all my tickets worthless.

Dortmund certainly looks like the horse.

Nice weekend of racing. The field is really shaping up now. I asked where the speed was earlier in the thread and now speed is all over the place (Dortmund, AP, Stanford, Materiality, Firing Line, Ocho Ocho Ocho). The Derby pace is certainly looking strong now. The Florida horses continue to run well after shipping around the country. I too was pleased Danzig Moon got second and can run in the Derby. He certainly showed the kind of improvement we are looking for this time of year. Dortmund looks a monster, Carpe Diem continues to perform, and Frosted bounced back. The "other" Baffert horse (One Lucky Dane) running second was the biggest surprise for me. Bolo and a number of others are on the edge of making the Derby.

I wanted to revisit some Wynn props I mentioned previously (updates in bold):

Quote: Keeneone

Wynn now has a number of Derby props available.

Kentucky Derby Points Prop (minimum # of Derby points to make and run*)
Over 20.5 points Even
Under 20.5 points -120
*must run in the Derby

Will any horse win the 2015 Triple Crown?
Yes +650 (+700)
No -850 (-1000)

Will a horse win any 2 of the 2015 Triple Crown Races?
Yes +190 (+140)
No -220 (-160)

Official winning time of the 2015 Kentucky Derby
Over 202.20 -110
Under 202.20 -110

The over in the Kentucky Derby Points Prop is now in a winning position with the Arkansas Derby and Lexington Stakes still to run. There would have to be a number of defections for the under to occur at this point. Remember, 24 can be entered in the Derby but only 20 can run.